JOSH BROWN SAYS "I DON'T SEE HOW YOU CAN BE GLASS HALF EMPTY ON THIS" -07/28- Stock Market Analysis

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Blue cloud trading through the night. Welcome back to the channel, everyone. In just a second, I'm going to play a few CNBC clips from today's episode of the Halftime Report. I'm going to pull up the charts and dive into the technicals of some of the mentioned stocks. We're going to look at the key support, resistance levels, momentum, and see if the price action actually backs up what the talking hands are saying. Hit that like button, subscribe if you haven't already, and let's roll the tape on the first clip. [00:00:32] Speaker 2: Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Mike Santoli in for Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, the semi-sell-off. Is it showing signs of easing and can market rotation continue to offset any further weakness in the AI trade? The Investment Committee standing by with what it all means for your money. Joining me for the hour, Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Josh Brown will join us shortly as well. Thanks for being here for the hour. Let's check the markets. The picture has firmed up quite a bit in the last hour or so. The S&P 500 up about four-tenths of 1%. It was actually negative by a similar amount at the lows. The Nasdaq composite a little bit higher. Semis, you see them down 3.8%. They're up 2% or 3% off the morning lows. Still, obviously, the theme of the day, guys, has been starting with a South Korea sell-off, a further crash in that market. It seemed to spill into a flush in some of the affected names, related stocks in the U.S. open. I did note the S&P, Philadelphia S&P, semiconductor ETF hit the 100-day moving average for the first time since early May. It bounced off that level. It has given back half of the gain it had in this huge surge it had from late March into the highs in June. So I guess there are multiple questions. One, have we seen a flush? Is it perhaps going to abate a little bit? Is it telling us anything about the fundamentals or is it just a repositioning momentum, unwind? And then can the rest of the market continue to hold the fort as it has been, Joe? So I think it's completely deleveraging. [00:02:08] Speaker 3: And I think it's extreme positioning in the direction of memory and AI towards the end of June. And we're working off. Why do I feel comfortable that this is not some inflection point for the market where fundamentals are shifting? Think about the S&P 500 today. I think a lot of people are going to be surprised with what I'm about to say. 12% of the S&P 500 index today is recording a new 52-week high. It's not your technology names. Yes, Apple is participating. But it's your JP Morgan. It's your Visa. It's your Target. It's your Best Buy. So we're seeing that momentum is shifting and going in other different directions. If you want to go back and look at the memory trade, the AI name, and the halo effect of the semiconductors itself, and have some confidence that maybe it's bottoming out. A couple of weeks ago, I took a personal position purely based on momentum in video, Mike. It was up about 5.5%. Didn't want to lose 5% on the trade. Had to stop down below to lose 5%. Guess what? Yeah. Got stopped out this morning. Here comes the reversal. By a few pennies, right? It's now higher by a few pennies, and I'm saving America and everyone that's long and video. [00:03:16] Speaker 2: So we threw your position into the volcano as a sacrifice. I guess that worked. Steph, here's the thing with saying that it is a pure positioning unwind, and the rest of the market has actually benefited from this rotation. On the way up, it was largely a position stampede. It was a crowding into what was winning, and we don't know where the equilibrium is, right? You have Wells Fargo this morning saying that, you know, are semis discounting much slower growth, and is that a correct thing that the market's doing? Essentially compressing the valuations and saying, we're not really sure how many years we can count on this earnings story. [00:03:53] Speaker 4: So if you think that the semi-cycle is over, then you think that the CapEx cycle is over. And I firmly believe that we are not at the end of the CapEx cycle. The hyperscalers are going to spend about $800 billion this year. I would not be surprised, Mike, if they go to $1.6 trillion next year because they have to, right? They see the growth. They see the momentum in their business. We are short everything from memory to compute to copper to aluminum to everything. So to me, I don't think the cycle is over. This could be a pause, and maybe you don't want to own the hyperscalers because they haven't done that well this year. And maybe semiconductors do take a pause. What I think is interesting is, like, every day it's either the semis are on and the software names are off, or the software names are up and the semis are down. So the way I've taken the approach is the semis that I own, they've actually been the laggards. It's Broadcom. I just initiated a position in NVIDIA. Micron is not a laggard by any means, but it fell 30%, and I thought that was a good time to take a little small position. But with Broadcom and NVIDIA specifically, they have derated. Their multiples are actually quite attractive at this moment in time. I mean, NVIDIA's at 18 times. It's the cheapest since 2019. Broadcom's at 21 times. Its long-term average is 28. It got as high as 45. So to me, and both stocks have lagged the sector by 52% year-to-date. So to me, like, if I can say they're a little safer, they feel a little safer, and the fundamentals are very, very strong. So I think you want to pay attention to the semis. It's 19% of the S&P 500. Software is only 7%. So, you know, you want to own both, I think. That's the way I'm playing it, having a barbell. [00:05:44] Speaker 2: Josh, semis are, you know, whatever they are, just under 20%, depending on how we're taking the snapshot. If CapEx is going up, and the semis, therefore, are undergirded by that earnings story, then what are we doing with the company spending the money? Because that's been the problem. We've sent all – we know this. It's been just a broken record. The free cash flow is going from the hyperscalers to the hardware food chain. The hyperscalers used to trade at a higher multiple. The food chain trades at lower multiples. It doesn't help the overall S&P 500. Let's not yet talk about the non-tech parts of the market, which are working, but how does this play out, or does it matter for an investor? [00:06:24] Speaker 5: I think the good news is that it's such a healthy bull market that, in real time, some of the leadership groups are going through this kind of alternating bubble burst, but it's not knocking the major secular uptrend off course. And what I mean by that is a lot of times you'll see a monster rally in one narrow area of the market, and maybe we'll see some of those superlatives where that area of the market becomes 10% of an index, 20% of an index. And then the investor class gets so sucked into it that it almost has to cause a market-wide event for that market to clear and sanity to return. We don't have that in this case because there are so many things working that we could see this bubble burst in real time and have the rest of the market within a percent or two of all-time record highs. This is like what you pray for in advance. If I tell you there's a bull market coming, this is exactly the description of the bull market that you would ask for if you know anything about history, every stock in the SMH is now below its 50-day moving average. The average 52-week drawdown for each SMH component is 30%. And the RSI's in these names have been completely wiped out. They've gone from momentum, darling, one-way trade, consensus long, must-own, as recently as June to an average RSI of 39. This is great news because we have enough strength all over the tape to absorb this kind of pain happening in what was the leadership group for this market in the first half. I don't see how you could be glass half-empty on this. [00:08:17] Speaker 2: Well, I don't know if you want to be glass half-empty. I basically am uncomfortable with how much people love this and it's how scripted it is, right? Everybody wants this. And this is why I'm wondering if you get your bid in semis, if, in fact, everybody, the market ratifies the fundamental story, if we're going to have to deal with, as our friend from BTIG, Jonathan Krinsky, said this morning, if semis have had enough for now on the downside and they rip, you've got to sell the equal weight. He says it's just the other side of the seesaw and that the equal weighted S&P is at the top end of its trend channel and you can't have everything at once. [00:08:54] Speaker 3: But two things. Number one, the semi-trade, the volatility is not going away. I just want to make the point SK Hynix will be reporting. We'll hear from them. And then Samsung follows Wednesday evening, 9 o'clock Eastern time. They've already had preliminary results. You'll get the full results. But, Mike, to your point, let's remember something. Crude oil is helping out the formula of the market broadening this week for sure. We're now trading below $79 in crude oil. So if you tell me that crude oil is going to reverse and go back towards $90 again, there's going to be a little bit of static in front of that broadening out narrative for sure. For now, it can work. And as long as crude oil stays below $80, consumer discretionary is clearly going to benefit in that environment. You're going to see the rebound that we've been waiting for the last several weeks. And the broadening narrative stays to Josh's point in play. [00:09:47] Speaker 4: And that's because the fundamentals are good elsewhere, though. I mean, financials. Financial services had 30% earnings growth. Materials had 96% earnings growth. So I know technology and comms services are the leaders in earnings. But earnings across the spectrum, throw in health care, utilities, and real estate, they saw 15% in earnings growth. The average long-term earnings growth for the S&P 500 is 5% to 7%. These are phenomenal numbers. And that's why the broadening trade is working out. I don't know why it has to be one or the other, Mike. I really don't. [00:10:19] Speaker 2: Well, historically, it has been. I mean, it kind of has been. It's sort of, look, four months ago, we had four months of this. The end of October of last year was the peak MAG-7 dominance. And you had a correction in NASDAQ 100 just as we've had just now. And equal weight outperformed for four months until the day before the Iran conflict started. And the S&P went nowhere. So I do think you can have these interludes where, you know, you get an assault on the leaders and they call up the troops and they hold the market up. Obviously, you could have an all-in rally at some point. I do want to get to one key instrument of this rotation and how it's worked, Josh, which is Apple. So Apple has acted as the anti-semiconductor, anti-CAPEX tool of this market. It's been, obviously, on this huge run. It gets back to $5 trillion market cap. It also gets back to basically its highest valuation in the iPhone era. After you went back almost 20 years until you can see this thing traded at 35 times. So we can make up a story as to why it's working. And it probably has some validity about the low CAPEX intensity. But, you know, or is it just kind of filling the place while we regain conviction in the AI trade? [00:11:38] Speaker 5: I think when there are doubts about either continued hyperscaler CAPEX or what the ROI is or whether or not OpenAI can actually come up with the money that it's got commitments for, et cetera, et cetera. Like when that whole daisy chain of uncertainty fills the market, Apple is the no-brainer pivot for managers who are large cap or growth managers or tech investors or whatever. Apple gives them that reprieve where they can put money to work. They know there's an AI story coming here, a consumer AI story. It'll have something to do with the app store and incorporating your favorite LLM, et cetera, et cetera. We've talked about that a million times. I'm not going to do it again. But the added kicker is that there's a hardware cycle. And so they're going to report Thursday after the close. The estimate is $1.89 for the quarter on $108.9 billion. And that is a return to growth. Last quarter, they returned to growth. We know the 17, while not the hottest iPhone ever, we know that it was meaningful. And people did upgrade at higher rates than what was expected. Now the 18 is coming. Tim Cook's going to do his final conference calls as a CEO this week. And then come September 1, it's the John Turner show. And Turner's is a hardware guy. So there's a lot of excitement around Apple. There is growth once again. Obviously, it's not a cheap stock. It almost never has been. And people say, you know what? I do want large cap. I do want tech. I want the flavor of AI. I don't feel like the uncertainty of meta right now. I'm buying AAPL. [00:13:23] Speaker 2: I mean, it was a dirt cheap stock in, like, 2010 to 2016 or something like that. [00:13:28] Speaker 5: Let's take a time machine back and buy it then. [00:13:30] Speaker 2: No, no. I'm just telling you. It's not, it's not, it's not, never, it's not never been cheap. And speaking of that, by the way, what's interesting, Berkshire Hathaway is up like 2% today. It's almost like, you know, what would make that work? Well, insurance stocks are breaking out a little bit. Apple's up. Coke's up big. You know, and Sherwood Williams beat, and the stock's up, and they own Benjamin Moore. I mean, it's kind of like, enjoy it today anyway, Warren. We'll see if it continues. I will say, KeyBank did reiterate an underweight on Apple today, 250 price target. Obviously, that's a pretty steep downside from there. But more or less saying that, you know, this sort of change and go-to-market strategy is going to maybe have some pressure on iPhone cycle. I mean, there's sort of these general things that are hovering out there on the name. [00:14:13] Speaker 3: Yeah, so let's focus for a second on the analyst community, and let's, you know, I know you probably don't like the MAG-7 as much anymore. You said yesterday you want to just focus on the hyperscale of four. But universally, across the board, there's this love from the analyst community. If you look at the percent buy rating, take your pick. You want to turn towards NVIDIA, Alphabet, Meta. They're all 90% and above. I'm looking right now, the 12-month price target for Meta. Wow, this is generous. 815 with the stock trading 596. Well, how do the analysts feel about Apple? Not so good. Only 62% have a buy rating. The stock right now is 339. The 12-month price target, 323. Yeah. [00:14:54] Speaker 2: It's been that way for quite a while. I mean, because, you know, it just doesn't feel like there is that kind of effortless growth. You have to handicap the upgrade cycle. It seems like they're a little bit hit-driven. Obviously, the stock has kind of defied that caution for a while here. You talk about MAG-7. One thing I did see that looked like it might be a little bit bullish in a contrarian sense for the hyperscalers in the MAG-7, massive outflows from MAG-7-specific ETFs. So people have kind of bailed on that to some degree. But it does bring us, Steph, to things like Meta. We're going to hear from more. Microsoft's had a good couple of days. It might just be the other side of the semi-trade. But I do wonder, and everybody has to wonder, if that trade has been de-risked to some degree. [00:15:39] Speaker 4: I think it has. But, I mean, you're going to see a deceleration in their ad business, right, this quarter. Just on tough compares, 6% tough compares. So 26% in their ad business growth, if that compares to 33% the prior quarter. And, of course, everybody cares only about what they're going to say on CapEx. And there are numbers that are floating all over the place, Mike. For next year, I saw as high as $250 billion in CapEx for them next year on top of $125 to $145 this year. That is not going to go well for the stock, I don't think. I'm an investor. I hold it. But I'm getting kind of frustrated with the fact that they're spending so much. They are seeing an ROI. And, by the way, SortedAlphabet saw an ROI in their cloud business. I mean, they saw 82% growth. It just isn't enough. We just need them to kind of calm down a little bit. But that being said, you're talking about 15 times forward estimates. And I'm, you know, 26% revenue growth. [00:16:39] Speaker 2: At some point, all of this CapEx actually does become relevant to the macro and the Fed, Josh. I mean, just because the demand for capital is so intense, it kind of has this look of an overheat or a potential overheat in corporate spending. And it's a similar thing where it's like, look, pain today, gain tomorrow in terms of profits and productivity. And on some level, the doves on the Fed are going to try to bank on this idea that AI can, you know, be the escape hatch from this inflationary zone right here. On the other hand, maybe the market's just talking itself into it, tomorrow being a live meeting and we'll get past it and feel like, what were we worried about, Jeff? [00:17:18] Speaker 5: So, I talk to business owners who are spending money right now on AI, like actively sitting in meetings about what's our budget, what tools are we using, what's getting traction, what's not. And the things that I'm hearing echo almost perfectly, the things that I hear when I listen to or read transcripts from conference calls, non-technology companies that comprise this new class of what I'm calling AI beneficiaries, but these are basically companies that have nothing to do with tech other than as a consumer of it. I want you to put up a chart of all state. So, does the Fed have to consider that we could potentially be looking at a scenario where corporate profits spend the next two to three years screaming higher, validating all of the consumer and customer spend on AI and what that means to the economy? Well, I think so. Sorry. So, this is a company where all of their inbound emails are now being handled by AI agents. And the agent is smart enough to know, okay, maybe I should pass this one along to a human agent, or maybe I can resolve this myself. This is one example. I've given many examples this year on the show of companies specifically citing their AI consumption as the reason for upward earning surprises. There will be more, Mike, and I'm going to tell you right now, they're going to come from every sector in the market. What does that mean from a macro perspective? It means we may not replay the 1999-2000 CapEx boom bust. This might be different. This might be sustainable levels of CapEx as far as the eye can see. They may decelerate in terms of the pace, but companies like Allstate, and there are so many examples I could give you, they're coming out and they're saying, guys, there's an ROI now. Like, this is not a build-out, and three years will tell you how it went. Things are changing on the ground right now. I see it in my own business, in my little wealth management firm, and we're seeing it all over the Fortune 500. All right, up next, Josh Brown's ready with his best stocks in the market. [00:19:27] Speaker 2: Stay here. [00:19:29] Speaker 1: Okay, so that was Josh Brown and some guests on the first clip of the halftime report. What I'm going to do is go over some of those stocks that they just talked about. If they happen to be in my portfolio, I'm not going to cover those, but there's going to be about 18 here, and I have highlighted some of the strongest of the stocks and ETFs from the list that they talked about. So let's get into this. So let's start off with Apple, and what you'll notice here, technically, we're using the Ichimoku indicator. Price has been in a very strong uptrend. It was up another 0.94% today. I talked about this yesterday as well. I said, guys, this is, you know, one of the few technology stocks that is obviously in a nice, strong uptrend, not just on the weekly chart, but also on the daily, right? So we've got the technicals confirming everything. We've got the directional movement index very positive with the green line above the red line. We've got price above these two moving averages. We've got the 9 period, the 26 period, the Ichimoku cloud itself, right? And then the Chiku span, which is the current price projected 26 periods ago, is currently above the candle right there, 26 periods ago. So that's all very bullish. Ichimoku stands for at a glance. We can quickly assess the trend, the strength of the trend, all from just looking at this chart. Let's look at the next one. Best Buy. So you'll notice here that out of the 18 that I'm going to discuss here, it's just these five that actually meet the criteria on both the weekly and on the daily. So again, price in this case, all right, is above the cloud. It's above the moving averages. It's above the 200 day, still moving up. Broke above this prior high of 84.99. So it's basically looking really bullish here. In fact, if you look closer with Best Buy, you take a look at the low back here in 2025. And we touched that level right back here. What day was that? That was around May 15th of 2026. And from that point, it's moved up 60.37%. So Best Buy has been having a really big move up on the weekly. And there's the daily chart. Very strong uptrend currently with Best Buy. Next one is XLB. Next one is XLB. That's the materials sector ETF. Here it is on the daily chart. Price gapped up today. A nice big gap up above the cloud. And you'll see that the Tenkinson and Kegensen, the 9 period and 26 are merging right now. The ADX is moving up here with the directional movement index. What that means is that the momentum is increasing. That's that white line there. The green line, when that's above the red line, all that's telling us is that the direction is basically up. We're in an uptrend. So that's very bullish on the daily. And I like the weekly chart as well. Everything looks pretty bullish here as well. There is a pattern that's being built here with XLB. It looks more like a symmetrical triangle, as you can see. And whenever you get stuck in this type of range, what you're looking at is for that confirmation of price to break above the trend line for a continued move to the upside. Because if it breaks to the downside here, that could be obviously very negative. We don't want that. But it does look more and more bullish here as the days go by. XLF Financials breaking through some resistance here, 56.94. That's from the daily chart here from January 9th of 2026. It broke that level very significant. Actually, I take that back. This, let me go back. Sorry, folks. Let me go to the daily chart. This 56.51 level goes back to that date. And then the 56.94 is based on this candle here from July 17th. So it took both of those out. Now it's got clear room to run. Okay, these are all-time highs here for the financial sector, XLF. So I do like this ETF. I like XLV as well. Something very similar. It broke through this 165.60 level based on the resistance from July 7th. This candle right here, that little red spinning top that you see right there. That's a bearish reversal candle. You see price dropped. And today, it gapped up, not just basically above the candle here, but above this trend line, the 165.60, which was a very strong resistance level. Very important. Take a look at the volume down below. It's increasing to the upside. The green line is moving up. The red line is moving down. And the 80X is moving up. That's what you want to see with the directional movement index. I do have it at a faster setting of 9, okay? And so, what does the weekly look like? Here's the weekly chart. Very bullish as well. The rest of these, folks, there's something not right technically on either the weekly or the daily chart. So, let's start off with Broadcom, for example. And here, you can see price has been basically consolidating, moving sideways under the 26th period and under the 9th period. So, that's not a good time to be adding positions, in my opinion. If you look at DRAM, Roundhill Memory ETF on the weekly chart is under the 9th period and the 26th period. If you look at the daily chart, it looks even more bearish where price closed under the cloud. Google is still under the cloud on the daily chart. But it does seem to be finding some support above the 200. So, it was under it for a couple of days. Gapped up is now sort of holding at that level. It was up 2.19%. Let's look at the weekly. Here's the weekly chart. It's still under the moving averages. So, we don't have anything to do here yet with Google. IGV is still under the cloud on the weekly chart. And on the daily chart, it's under the 200 and inside the cloud. So, nothing to do with the software index fund ETF. MAG7, as you can see, we're still under the cloud for the fourth day in a row. And if you look at the weekly chart, we're inside the cloud. So, that's also looking relatively bearish at this moment. I wouldn't be adding positions. It's more of a hold position if you happen to have some of the stocks there. You can manage those individually. Meta is under the cloud on the weekly chart and on the daily chart. It's inside. So, no on this one as well. Micron is inside the cloud. You can see it's still in the decline. Down 8.85% today. All right. So, it gapped under this support level. We talked about that recently. The 854.35. It was based on, let me show you guys, the level. It's based on this candle right here. See the low? So, it found support there for three days in a row. It kept on staying above that level. And then today was the first day down. It has one more level of support here. The cloud itself. So, there's a possibility that we could bounce off the cloud. But it's just not looking very positive here for Micron. Look at the volume also increasing to the upside. So, there certainly seems to be a shift in the sector. Right? There's a sector rotation taking place. And technology has not been doing well. Here's NVIDIA up just 0.25%. Still in a downward channel on the daily. And here it is on the weekly chart under the 26th period. So, NVIDIA looks slightly more bullish because, well, Micron doesn't look terrible here on the weekly chart either. But I like NVIDIA on the daily chart because it's holding above the 200-day. All right. And there's a possibility that it could bounce here. It's been finding support at that level multiple times. Let's take a look at SKHY. Now, SKHY is the SK Hynix Inc. technology sector semiconductor. All right. It's a semiconductor stock. There's the daily chart. Not looking pretty here. There's not enough data here for us to really review the Ichimoku because it hasn't formed yet, the cloud itself, because there aren't enough trading days here. But what we can do is we can switch it to a 30-minute chart. And now we have more data. And we can see each one of these candles now represents 30 minutes. As you can see, we've been in a decline here since price got under the moving averages. It's dropped about 22.9% on the 30-minute chart. And it's been declining still since then. SMH on the 30-minute is still under the cloud. On the daily chart, it's currently right at the cusp there, right at the bottom, finding a little bit of support at the bottom of this box. So could SMH, semiconductor ETF, bounce here? It's possible. It is a reversal candle. It's a spinning top or slash doji, okay? But it was down 3.45%. Here's the weekly chart. So there is some potential here for a reversal, but it's just still looking very bearish. I wouldn't be taking any chances until we see more strength in that industry. Same here with this SOXX, right, index fund, down 4.8%. There's a weekly chart, finding support right at that 26. On the daily chart, it's doing something very similar, holding right at the cloud. XLK technology, again, down 1.84%. But look what happened today. We did actually get a bullish type reversal candle. So it came close to the bottom of the cloud. Price of the bulls pushed it right back up. So the opening and closing price were very close. That's why we have that very flat body. If I switch it to a three-minute chart, you can see that there's the gap down in the morning. It dropped some more, right? And then around, what time was that? 10.27 a.m. or so, 10.24, it started to recover and it moved up 2.04%. So, but overall, it's still not looking pretty. What about XLY, consumer discretionary? ETF has been moving up here, gapping up a couple of days now since we created this bullish harami pattern. We've talked about that before. That's when you have a red large candle followed by a small bullish candle. It's important to learn these patterns. And I do have a cheat sheet on my X page. So you may want to check that out. Price gapped up, gapped up again. But guess what? There's resistance right there. So this could be very short-lived. And then we can see a pullback, some more. Here's the weekly chart. It's inside the cloud. Good news. I mean, we're forming, and we only have a couple of days here of data, but we are forming another bullish harami. So this could potentially lead to a move up. It was up 1.48%. Guys, let's watch the second clip. And then I'll be following up with more technical analysis of the additional stocks and ETFs that they discuss. And then one more thing I'm going to do is go into the indices. Because right now it's 6.57 p.m. Eastern Time. And you can see the Dow was up 1.03%. NASDAQ down 0.22%. S&P 500 closed up 0.21%. And the Russell 2000 was up just 0.16%. It's 6.57 p.m. Eastern Time as I'm recording this. [00:30:39] Speaker 2: All right, Josh, what's first up today? [00:30:42] Speaker 5: I don't know why, but this is turning into one of my favorite recurring segments on the show. Mike, I want to talk about buying the dip in travel. I think this has worked all year. We'll continue to work. We saw a lot of the travel-related stocks come down on the most recent, quote-unquote, mid-east tensions. And I think these stocks are automatic buys anytime they give you that opportunity. And we're not talking about every travel stock, but companies that are global, are catering to the upper end of the K predominantly, and are expanding in terms of the number of rooms. We want to be in the growth names in the space. Marriott, for me, is the best of the bunch. This is the world's largest hotel company. They don't own any properties. 99% of the hotels are owned by developers. Marriott is in the points business. They're basically a marketing company. It's an asset-light business that I think is completely immune to a lot of things that we worry about, with AI CapEx, for example. And travel is not going anywhere in terms of being a major driver. Even when Meta reports this week, a lot of what's going on there is travel-related advertising. It's just in a boom that's not ending. So this is a name that's testing the 50-day at 376. RSI is still in the 50s. It's a bit of a momentum reset. But I think you can own it. Investors can look down at 330, the old breakout level, as a line in the sand. You're risking 12% to stay in a quality name that I think makes new highs by the end of the year. The other name we're talking about is Howmet. This stock's been on the list the entire year. It's aerospace and defense. Pull the chart back a little bit so I can make this point. Not a lot of people know this name. It's up 41% year-to-date, 55% over the past year. They've got a gas turbine business revenue. It was up 39% the last time they reported. Predominantly data center power demands. But then they're also involved in defense. They're also involved in jet orders, et cetera. And there are multiple drivers to the story. As you can see, even in the pullbacks this year, Howmet never even glanced at that rising 200-day. It's just been in this pristine uptrend, flirting with the 50-day on several occasions, but never broke down. And now the stock is approaching 300. I think it takes 300 out. [00:33:09] Speaker 2: All right. Josh, by the way, really glad that you were, I know, reluctant to take the spotlight. And glad when the show came to you with this opportunity. You've embraced it and enjoying it. Travel, Joe. Royal Caribbean up a little bit today. Is that one of yours? Strong earnings. Yep. [00:33:28] Speaker 3: CEO speaking about retaining pricing power, really dismissing some of the concerns that were out there in terms of what the yield would look like. Reiterating double-digit earnings and revenue growth, travel is really strong right now, whether it is Royal Caribbean, Expedia, or look at Airbnb. That's at a 52-week high today as well. So consumer discretionary, certainly making a comeback. [00:33:51] Speaker 2: Yeah, Steph, I mean, it's been a theme that this is the part of consumer where, you know, it's resilient. How are you approaching? [00:33:58] Speaker 4: Well, I'm overweight discretionary, but a lot of it is housing, but it's also sportswear. Like, one of my biggest positions is Dix. I think that that stock is actually going to have a nice second half after they spent so much money on the World Cup and investing for Foot Locker and fixing that whole thing. So I think that, you know, companies would die for a 6% comp, and that's what they're putting up in their core business. So that's my favorite name. But I still, I'm not giving up on housing. They're too darn cheap. [00:34:24] Speaker 2: Yeah, they've gotten there. We'll see. Maybe we get a little bit of rate help at some point. Joe, how, Matt? Yeah. Every aerospace equipment company is also a power company. [00:34:34] Speaker 3: Industrial names have been remarkably strong, as Steph pointed out, but it's been the aerospace over the last several years where you've been able to allocate in that direction, find the strength, maintain ownership, reasonable valuation with very strong earnings growth as we're seeing a reacceleration coming out of COVID in those sub-industries. [00:34:55] Speaker 2: All right, well, coming up, can we get some committee moves? Staff will tell you which stock she just bought more of. Plus, we'll debate our top calls of the day. Halftime, we'll be right back. We are back with a committee move, Steph. Bought more IBM. [00:35:09] Speaker 4: Yes, I did. Trying to buy low and sell high. [00:35:11] Speaker 2: Yeah, lowest cost basis wins. [00:35:13] Speaker 4: This fell really hard, obviously. We all know that. Down 25% on the negative pre-announcement. But then when we got the quarter, I didn't think that the numbers changed that much to be down 25%. And they also closed a third of the deals that slipped already. So I think it's positioned pretty well. They're talking about total revenue growth to be 4% to 5% instead of 5%. So software, 6% to 8% instead of 10%, 11%. And infra, low single digits instead of mid-single digits. Like, I know the numbers are coming down, but I don't think they're coming down that warrants down 25%. And now the stock is at 18 times forward estimates, down from 26 times. I just think that this is such a well-run company. This was a one-off, really bad. But now it's time to be buying it. [00:35:55] Speaker 2: It definitely was a dramatic reset all at once. [00:35:57] Speaker 4: I realized they'd negatively pre-announced, to be honest with you. It wasn't that wild. [00:36:00] Speaker 2: Yeah, it wasn't so glaring, necessarily, that you would have needed it. They clearly wanted to get ahead of the explanation for why. Of course. Well, let's move to some calls of the day. CrowdStrike was initiated as a buy. We got a $300 and, what, $350 price target. Everybody owns CrowdStrike. Josh, you want to weigh in quick? [00:36:23] Speaker 5: Yeah, look, I think CrowdStrike is probably the company that has pole position in terms of the mindshare of the Fortune 500 board that's trying to do the right thing in the age of AI. It's almost like nobody ever got fired for buying IBM from a prior era. If you're bringing in George Kurtz and the CrowdStrike team, you are probably doing the right thing for the health and longevity of your organization. That's got a lot of legs, Mike. Like, this stock's up 55% year-to-date. It just did a four-for-one split. That's not a one- or two-quarter story. That could be a decade-long story, and I'm here for it. [00:37:05] Speaker 2: To me, it's so – I've said it before. It's very consensus-y that this is the safe place you can buy in software, Joe. It doesn't mean it's wrong. [00:37:13] Speaker 3: No, it doesn't mean it's wrong, but I think it's also evidence and indicative to the earlier conversation we were having where we believe much of what's going on in the marketplace right now is about position rotation. Right. So let's take up the conversation on software. We have said over the last several weeks, while you have seen Oracle and Adobe and Salesforce decline, the place you want to hide out is cybersecurity. Over the last five days, you're seeing the laggards in software rally, and guess what? Palo Alto, Fortinet, CrowdStrike, they're all down 5%, 6%. Datadog is another name. Squeeze over. Up for the year, right? It's pulling back. Twilio is another example. Strong software name pulling back as well. So that's where I don't think anything fundamentally has changed about what's going on in software. I think it's repositioning. If you tell me this is going to continue, where it's time to buy your Adobe, and it's time to buy your Salesforce, then guess what? Go buy your Blackstone, go buy your KKR, because they're going to be okay. [00:38:10] Speaker 2: By the way, that initiation was from Lupin. It was a $2.30 price target, not $3.50 for CrowdStrike. You mentioned Datadog, raised to $300 price target from $2.25 at Morgan Stanley, Joe. [00:38:20] Speaker 3: Cloud infrastructure monitoring, long-term, secular, fundamental strength. It's a name that I believe you should own. But understand, as this internal rotation goes on in software, you're probably not going to be happy with the near-term returns. [00:38:32] Speaker 2: All right. We are back on halftime. Index is near the highs of the day. Let's get to today's options action. Oliver Rennick joins us from CBO Global Markets in Chicago. Oliver. [00:38:50] Speaker 6: Hey, Mike, SpaceX is getting some relief today, but it's been a rough month if there is such a thing for the world's richest man. Elon Musk's two companies have lost a combined $1.5 trillion in market cap since June 16th. And SpaceX's biggest week since its IPO is probably yet to come. We've got earnings on Tuesday and the first opportunity for SpaceX insiders to sell 20% of their eligible locked-up stock two days later. That puts options traders who have been mostly still buying calls in a very tricky spot because usually one of the most reliable options trades in the market is betting on volatility falling after a stock's earnings. But if the lock-up is the bigger event, SpaceX options prices could stay extremely elevated for at least another nine or ten days. By the way, for context on just how unpredictable this stock is right now, implied volatility is currently 122, which right now, Mike, translates to a 15% swing after earnings. [00:39:52] Speaker 2: That is wild. A couple hundred billion dollar implied move, I guess, in market cap. Oliver, thank you. Steph, first earnings report, you kind of don't know what the presentation is going to look like. This is supposed to be a multi-decade galactic story. Not sure what three months is going to tell us. [00:40:07] Speaker 4: Well, that's exactly right. I own this for the long term. I bought it. It was a small position. I set it. I forget it. I think there's a lot of ways this company can win. They're number one player in the industry. First mover advantage, cost advantage. They can win in space, Starlink, or AI compute. So I think you just got to be patient. I'm not even looking at it, to be honest with you, because I just feel like this is such a – it's going to be a very well-run company, and there's a lot of options on the table. [00:40:33] Speaker 2: But, Josh, I mean, look, I guess one lesson, and I mentioned this yesterday, is if somebody says an IPO is X times oversubscribed, it doesn't mean that the demand is going to be there for the stock necessarily down the road. [00:40:46] Speaker 5: It's nonsense land. I was a co-branch manager at a firm that was doing IPOs all the time, and the oversubscribed is like you call people for an indication of interest. They don't even expect to get it, so they swing for the fences. So if they want 100,000 shares, they say 200,000 shares, thinking I better put in the 200,000, and if I'm lucky, I'll get the 100. Then you got a deal like this where there's enough stock for pretty much anyone who wants it, and all of a sudden that 4X oversubscribed, 8X oversubscribed, irrelevant. And we've seen that multiple times. We saw that with Cerebrus, too. So don't fall for the FOMO of that oversubscribed number, number one. And number two, yes, the whole market knows about the lockups, therefore it should be priced in. Yeah, but no, it's not priced in. [00:41:36] Speaker 2: We'll see. We'll see. Sometimes after the hangover, $20 off the offering price right now, you find some stability. Stay with us. Final Trades coming up. We are back with Final Trades. [00:41:47] Speaker 5: Josh, get us started. Netflix, still in the name, hanging on for dear life. All right. Steph. I was going to toast, too, but I know we're short of time, so. That's all right. Two for one. [00:42:03] Speaker 4: Qantas services, it's down 25% from its highs. I expect a beat in a race led by their electrical business, better margins, and a booked a bill of one. [00:42:11] Speaker 3: Joe. Raymond James is an example of an asset manager that's kind of sat out the last couple of years, the rally. Now strong earnings, retail engagement, institutional engagement. I like this name. [00:42:22] Speaker 2: Wealth management in Florida, not a terrible business. All right, guys. Thanks very much. It's going to do it for halftime. [00:42:27] Speaker 1: All right. Let's take a look at the next group of stocks that they just talked about. Again, Airbnb. There's three of them out of 15 that actually meet the criteria of the Ichimoku indicator. So let's start off with Airbnb. Let's start off with the weekly chart because it did, in fact, have a nice... So far, it's doing really well this week. It looks like it might break and close above 150.88. That is based on this daily level from July 16th. So today, that was a nice breakout. There's going to be more resistance at 163.93, which is about 6.7% away from where we currently are. But I like what I'm seeing technically with the charts. It looks good here, both on the daily chart and on the weekly chart. I like HWM, Homet Aerospace. As you can see here on the weekly chart, we're looking very bullish. We've got a nice, strong uptrend. Higher highs, higher lows. We've been holding up above that 26th period this whole time. Notice how interesting these moving averages are. They flatten out. So you can almost kind of see the stair-stepping as it continues to move up, right? So think of a staircase as it moves up, moves up, moves up. But at some point, when that staircase breaks down and they start stepping down, which will eventually happen, that's the time to consider taking some profits. Let's look at the daily chart here. It's still looking pretty bullish on the daily, even though price did draw 0.53%, as you can see right there. It held up right above the Tenkinson. Now, the ChicoSpan, the current price, that's the one weakness that I see on this chart. That's the current price is actually inside the candle. It's not under it. It's not above it. So I think more than likely, it's going to actually, the very next day, it's going to probably get right above that candle, all right? As long as we maintain above the nine period. What about RJF? Raymond James Financial. All right. By the way, guys, I'm also going to be covering, at the end of this, the indices, the SPY, the Q, the Dow, the Russell, VIX, FEZ, which is the Eurostoxx 50, gold, silver. And then we also have some member requests right there, too. So we'll look at those as well. So let's continue here. So RJF, Raymond James Financial. Here is the weekly chart. So this level, 177.73, is based on this candle going back to September 26th of 2025. Found resistance at that level. All right. Dropped. Came back. Came close to that level. Dropped. Came back again. Found resistance here. It is currently at 177. It closed at 177.18. The level it needs to close above is 177.73. So zooming in, you can see that wick right there that had formed. If I switch to a daily chart, it's more clear. If I switch it to a 30-minute chart, all right, we can see how on the 30-minute chart, it just briefly got above it and then dropped back under. So what we want to wait for, in my opinion, is a close above 177.73 on Friday, basically, because this is a weekly level, all right? Just a few more days left. CRM. Okay. Now, the rest of these folks is something off, technically, right? Weekly chart. We can see price for Salesforce is still in a decline. And like I said earlier, unlike when it's stair-stepping up, you can see it's stair-stepping down very clearly with that red line, the Cajunson, okay? Not the time to be adding because it can continue dropping some more, all right? And so we want to wait for a change in the sentiment. And the only way that we know that that change is happening is when price starts breaking above the moving averages, above trend lines, above the cloud itself, above the 200. You get a whole bunch of things happening. And when you see price breaking above levels of resistance, that's when you know, okay, things are changing, all right? Things are, the stock has some potential. Now, on the daily chart, it did break above the cloud. But you'll notice that the cloud itself is still bearish. That's when the single span A is still under the single span B, and we're still under this 200-day declining line. So, you know, the weekly is more important, in my opinion, because it gives us the longer term direction of the stock. And the daily chart is just more for getting a more optimal entry or exit when you're ready to close out the position, you know? CrowdStrike on the daily chart is under the moving averages right now. On the weekly chart, you can see two weeks now, we're still under the nine period. So that's not good. DDOG is holding up on the weekly chart. It looks still very bullish on the weekly. Remember, technology, though, as a sector, has been sort of stagnant or dropping. Daily chart, we're currently right under the nine period. So, you know, I would be holding off until we get a break above that 278.70. It's a very strong level of resistance. Why? Because you can see how price reacted to it. It's based on this prior high. Price came close, dropped. Came close here, dropped. Okay? So that level is really important. Let's take a look at the next one. DKS, Dick's Sporting Goods. Under the Ichimoku cloud, still in a decline. You can even draw a diagonal trend line if you want. And it will tell you the same story that we're in a downward channel here for DKS. Here's the weekly chart. All right? I'd stay out of that one. IBM is still under the cloud. It has found some support at the 200 on the weekly. It gapped up a little bit this week. And today, it moved up 5.21%. Problem is, it's in an established downtrend still. And so this could be very short-lived. Marriott. It's inside the Ichimoku cloud right now. It has potentially stalled here with a double bottom pattern. Okay? You can see price dropped to that level. Moved up a little bit. Came right back to that level. And then bounced. So, and it broke above this level. So, that's important. So, that's important. However, we still have resistance. The cloud itself and the ChicoSpan right here is under price. So, that's also bearish. You look at the weekly chart. We're also still under the nine period. PWR, Quanta Services, is still in a decline. Look at all the multiple weeks here. Seven weeks in a row. Steady decline in PWR, Quanta Services. Look at the volume here. Negative volume. Look at the directional movement index on the weekly chart. It crossed right there above the green line. The momentum of this move started to decline right about there when the ADX started to drop. Do you see that sharp decline right there? And then so did price, basically. RCL. Okay. On the weekly chart, that's the Royal Caribbean Group. You know, it's been holding up pretty nicely, actually. It's been consolidating for a long time now. This is a weekly chart you're looking at. So, check it out. Look at that box. It's just very tight consolidation. When it finally does break through that $366.50, and this, of course, that's going to be 100% dependent on oil prices and fuel costs. Because, you know, that's what makes this company either profitable or not profitable. So, once we break above that level, then, okay, there's something to start considering. There will probably be a catalyst. You know, maybe the Strait of Hormuz opens up finally for real. And it's not just a short-lived situation, right? Let's look at the daily chart on this one, too. You can see breaking above, but the faster moving average is still under the slower one. So, it could be very short-lived, like I said. SPCX, SpaceX. Now, on the daily chart, you know, there's not a lot here. There's not a lot of data, so we can't really look at the cloud in a more optimal way. So, we're going to switch it to a 30-minute. And we've been following SpaceX in the 30-minute for a while now since it broke under the moving averages back here in June. And since then, it's dropped about, I don't know, 42% or so. So, it's been steadily declining under the 200, under the cloud on the 30-minute chart. Now, an interesting thing that's happening. They did mention that it was up a little bit today, and it was. It was up 2.63%, and it actually entered the Ichimoku cloud. So, that is the beginning potential. There's some potential here for it to, like, actually continue, especially if it breaks through the cloud itself and through the 200. But we don't have that yet. Now, the Direction Movement Index is starting to look bullish in the 30-minute. But just keep in mind, when you look at something like a 2-hour chart, it's still in an embedded decline, still under that 200. So, don't get too excited about it, unless you plan on trading it just on the 30-minute. T-O-S-T, Toast, Inc. Here it is on the 30-minute chart. Here it is on the daily chart. It broke through above the 200. Okay, that's pretty bullish. On the weekly chart, though, we're just super close. We're just 6% away from the cloud, and it will find resistance right there, most likely. So, I like the fact that we have a positive crossover here. The faster-moving average did cross above the slower one, and we're above the 200. But there is still resistance above, so I would hold off, personally. Let's take a look at Tesla. Here's Tesla on the weekly chart. So, under the Ichimoku cloud now, down 0.58%. Here is the daily chart. Today, it did gap down. It was down 0.58%, but I'll tell you what. This is actually a bullish pattern. I wouldn't be shorting it after seeing a bullish spinning top. If you're shorting Tesla right now, this is a warning sign that price could move up tomorrow. Higher probability, especially after this long decline. Would I be adding positions in Tesla? No. But I certainly would stop shorting it if you happen to be doing that, betting against it. TWLO Twilio is inside the cloud. We still have a lower high here from the prior one. Okay, and so, but we're holding up above this support level. So, you know, it's just stuck in limbo on the daily. You look at the weekly chart. It's also in between the two moving averages. Not a whole lot to do here. Now, let's take a look at the indices. I'll start off with the SPY. So, and before we do that, let me just show you guys what the heat map looks like. Here's the heat map. So, you can see that today, healthcare stocks were mostly all in the green in the S&P 500. The energy stocks were down again, red. Consumer defensives did really well today. Basic materials were pretty bullish. Utilities were pretty bullish. Real estate was mixed. The communication services like Google, that was up 2.19. Telecom services, entertainment like Netflix was up. T-Mobile was up. Apple was up. Microsoft, NVIDIA. But look at a lot of the semiconductor stocks, a lot in the red there. AMD down 8.15. Micron down 8.85%. Intel down 5.86. Qcom down 4.3. Marvell down 7.77. All right. And the semiconductor equipment and materials, they were down too. If I highlight here, you can see the percentage drops in each ticker symbol. Software stocks did well, like Uber, though, and CRM. And so did IBM, like I mentioned earlier. All right. So let's get back to stocks here. So the SPY. Again, we're still in the box. There's nothing really to do here. It's in consolidation mode. It's basically moving sideways for basic... How many weeks is that now? Again, it entered the box back on May 8th. We really haven't moved. Right? So will we turn over, like we did over here, after this long consolidation, will we turn over before bouncing and moving back up again? Or will we break through that 760-40 level? That's the question. I don't know. But right now, I would just be sitting on my hands and not really adding positions here in the SPY ETF. And what about QQQ? The QQQ ETF is also declining now, as you can see here, three weeks in a row. Let's go ahead and switch it to a daily chart. And you can see it's just about to find some potential support at the cloud. But it did close for three days now, under 686.37, this parallel low. So that's not a good sign either. EIA, which is the Dow Jones Industrial ETF, was up 1.08%. So it gapped above the two moving averages. But again, the faster moving average is under this lower one. And if you look at the weekly chart, though, it's still opening up, I think, the best out of all the indices. The Russell 2000 is also still above the moving averages here on the weekly. But on the daily chart, it's under. OK? So it's still not quite there yet, holding up in this box. The VIX dropped 2.14%. That's good for the market. We want to see the VIX and volatility dropping. The Eurostoxx were only up 0.03% on the daily chart. Here's the weekly chart. Nothing happened there. Gold still stuck inside this consolidation stage, or consolidation box. And silver, same thing. It was down 2.32%. Now, let's take a look at the member's request, SKHY. Actually, we did cover that just a minute ago. Didn't we? Wasn't it one of the stocks? Yes, we did. We already covered that one. So that was covered. OK. Let's take a look at the rest of these. O-M-A-H. Ticker symbol. O-M-A-H, which is Vista shares. Target. $15, Berkshire, select income ETF. Let's start off with a weekly on this one. All right. So currently, we have a bearish cloud. We've got Sanko Span A under Sanko Span B. Price is inside the cloud. So we had a positive crossover here with a faster-moving average crossing above the slower one. It's inside the cloud. We do need to wait for that to break and close above. I like the fact that the white line, the Chico Span current price, is currently above the candle 26 periods ago. But we don't have enough bullishness quite yet. All right. On the daily chart, it looks more bullish because price did close above the tank it's in today. So if you're trading this just based 100% on daily, there's nothing negative to say about it here. But the weekly does not confirm it. Oil K is, okay, let's look at the weekly chart. Holding right at that 26 period. So there is a possibility here that Oil K can bounce. If we look at the daily chart, we're basically, we came to that cloud and pulled back. So remember what I said earlier. It's, you know, generally speaking, price, when it comes after a nice move up, comes to a level of resistance, if there are some negative news like we had with oil, right, where basically, which is not really negative, it's when, you know, there's a higher probability, at least for today or tomorrow, that oil prices may continue to drop a little bit based on optimism. But that can change very quickly and we can see a bounce again and another leg up. All right. So just be careful with this one. ETQ is the JPMorgan NASDAQ equity premium income ETF that's still pulling back. It's under the cloud right now. Here's the weekly chart inside the cloud. So I wouldn't be adding positions on this one, obviously. JBHT, which is JB Hunt Transport Services. It's in the industrial sector. Integrated shipping and logistics. This is the first week where it's actually under the nine period. But the week hasn't ended yet. This candle is dynamic. What that means is it's still in the process of forming, okay? We have not, we don't have a closure of this candle yet. We'll know what this looks like on Friday afternoon around 3, 3.30 p.m. It will either be under that nine period or above it. I would wait to see what happens with this one. But it was down 1.19% today. Let's look at the daily chart. Right. So here's the support right there at the top of the cloud. We had a few other little moments here where price got under the moving averages, like over here. And then it recovered here, recovered here, recovered. So will it do it again? That's the question. It is still in a consolidation stage. All right. So pretty much consolidating right now. So it's more of a hold position as long as it remains in that box. GPIQ. Okay. So this is interesting because it basically, we have a reversal candle. Price did close inside the cloud. Price touched the 200. And then the buyers stepped in and pushed it up. We can see that on a three-minute. So we're looking at a daily right here, but let's switch it to a three-minute. There's a three-minute chart. So price gapped down. And then around this time here, around 10.20, it moved up about 1.15%. So this is, again, the Goldman Sachs NASDAQ 100 core premium income ETF. Here's a weekly chart. Pulling back. It looks like a relatively healthy pullback because it stalled right at that 26 period. And so the question is, will it bounce and create another leg to the upside? That's what we need to wait and see. But right now, I would not be adding positions as it is starting to show some weakness, all right? Guys, that's going to do it for this video. Now, if you want to get more content that's not on this YouTube channel, or technically, you can access it, but you would need to become a member. Let me show you guys how you can do that. Once you're on my YouTube channel, you'll see two buttons. The subscribe button, which is free. You hit the notification bell. 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And once you become a member, all right, this is what the screen will look like. You'll see a membership tab. You click there, you click on Posts, and you'll be able to access those posts as a Legend Level Member. There are some more things here. There's more links, 10 more links right above these buttons here. Sorry, let me show you guys. How about the subscribe and join? If you click on that and scroll down, this is where you can get a $25 coupon for the TC2000 software. That's this software that I'm using, all right? Try it out for a month for free. What else? You will get access. If you like Finviz Elite, that's this platform right here. Click on the affiliate link right there. My Twitter page. You may want to check that out. Maybe you're a landlord. You want free property management software. I use this. This is why I actually recommend it. It's great. Works fantastic. I use NordVPN. Okay? All that is good stuff. And I do also have a TikTok channel, but I don't really use, really post that much on there. But, guys, thanks for watching. Hard to believe, but we have over 3,738,434 views so far. Wow. And if you subscribe, you'll help me reach 32,000. So, don't forget to hit that subscribe button. Hit the like button. I'll catch you all in the next video. [01:04:15] Speaker ?: I'll catch you all in the next video. I'll catch you all in the next video. We'll catch you all in the next video. We'll catch you all in the next video. We'll catch you all in the next video. [01:04:22] Speaker 2: We'll catch you all in the next video. We'll catch you all in the next video. We'll catch you all in the next video. [01:04:25] Speaker 1: We'll catch you all in the next video. We'll catch you all in the next video. [01:04:27] Speaker ?: We'll catch you all in the next video. [01:04:28] Speaker 1: We'll catch you all in the next video. We'll catch you all in the next video. We'll catch you all in the next video. [01:04:33] Speaker ?: We'll catch you all in the next video. We'll catch you all in the next video. [01:04:35] Speaker 1: We'll catch you all in the next video. [01:04:36] Speaker ?: We'll catch you all in the next video. We'll catch you all in the next video. Thank you.