Jobs Report Shocker, Market Surge, S&P Nears Next Major Resistance, Bitcoin Breakout, Gold Surge

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Gareth Soloway: My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a losing trader until I mastered technical analysis. Logic and charts beat hype and narratives every time. Now I teach investors the same techniques that made me a multi-millionaire. This is my trading game plan. Good morning, everybody. Happy Friday. My name is Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist here at verifiedinvesting.com and what a morning we have. The jobs report has just hit the wires about 30 minutes ago. The markets are digesting it and right now we have a strong rally on our hands. Basically, a much weaker number than expected and that is causing yields, interest rates to fall. The odds of a Fed rate hike in September have now gone below 50%. In other words, it's more likely that they will not be hiking in September and the markets are rejoicing. Let's take a look at the data points here. Here we have them guys. You can see right now, we got the number in minus 23,000 jobs. So a loss of 23,000. That's against the expected 83,000 number that the market was anticipating or forecasted, right? So this again is a big miss of basically a 100,000 jobs in the overall economy. Unemployment rate that actually fell 1/10 of a percent to 4.1%. Now, you might be thinking, well, the unemployment rates going down. How does that make sense? Why is that bad? I mean, how do we get a negative jobs number and then the unemployment rate actually goes down? And the answer is in the details. So what's going on is people are leaving the workforce. In other words, they're not counted as unemployed. So it's not that you're adding jobs. It's that people are just saying, you know what? I can't find a job. So I'm going to stop looking. And that's what these numbers are telling us. We also have you can see the labor participation rate. That's 61.4%. That's down 0.7% since January. That's telling you people aren't participating. Look at the previous prior month's numbers. Revised down. May's number, which came in at 129,000 jobs, revised to only 63,000. June, which was last month, came in at 57,000. That got revised down to 20,000. So a big difference maker there. All right, you can see down here where the jobs went local government education minus 50,000 retail minus 19,000 and financial activities minus 14,000. Healthcare continues to be the bright spot, gaining 22,000 jobs. And then another shocker average hourly earnings only up 3.2% year over year. And that's the slowest annual wage growth in years. So this is some big deal, folks. I mean, this again, listen, by no means is this telling us we're in a recession, but it is telling us that this strong facade of capex spending by the mega cap AI plays is masking underlying weakness in the economy, which is something I've talked about for basically six to 12 months that I believe that there's an underlying weakness and recession that many people are feeling already in this economy. Now, like I said, we had the fed watch tool on watch. We have this on our website for everyone to see. But what we can see right here is that the fed watch tool, you can see it is now swung to favoring by 56%. No rate hike in September at the September 16th, 2026 meeting. No rate hike. Now they're going to be pausing. So again, unless we get some crazy inflation numbers and we still will get one more jobs report, then it's likely that the fed is on the sidelines, which is something I've said. Remember when I talked about Kevin Warsh and how he came out in the last press conference and he talked this tough game and said, nope, we're going to do this. We're going to do that. We're going to get prices under control. And then he didn't give us any details at all. It was kind of like a whole lot of talk with no meat and potatoes to back it up. And lo and behold, here we go. Now he has an out to do exactly what the president wants, which is not raise interest rates and potentially maybe by next year, lower interest rates. Crazy stuff, guys. All right, let's get into the charts and see where things are trading here. The S&P 500 is trading up off of this news. It is pulling back just a little bit, but impressive surge on the back of this. And again, I think it's one of the hard things for people to get their head around, which is wait a minute. The jobs data was bad or weaker than expected, but the markets are surging. Why? And the answer is very simple. Interest rates. So interest rates and the odds now of no rate hike. Markets are addicted to cheap money. They want cheap money. It's the drug of the market and the system. And until that breaks, the markets are going to rejoice on the back of this. Okay, so that's where we are at this point, guys, on the ES futures coming back in. Let's look at the S&P 500 here. If we go to the S&P 500 daily chart, you guys know we've been following a couple of things. So number one, we keep talking about how we had this move up, consolidation, breakout, retrace, support, resistance, support, resistance, support, and then we finally broke out. And sure enough, I do think we're headed up to this level right up here, which is your next resistance point. And again, that's just above 7800 around 7833. Now, will we hit that today? It's I'm uncertain on that, right? That's very tricky to know if we're going to be able to get that high. That would be a gain of about 120 points on the S&P 500. That would be about one and a half percent. It is possible, but that's what I'm watching. So keep an eye on this as our next trend line resistance. Notice again, it takes basically pivot points going back a ways and connects them through. If we get through that point, I'll give you guys the next level of resistance. But suffice it to say, I'll start getting a little bit more neutral from the breakout bullishness once we tag that 7830 level. If we get through that, my next level, I'll just tell you guys now. I won't show it to you because I don't have time in this broadcast. But if we get through 7830 or so, we're likely going to 80, 8000 to 8100 on the S&P, which sounds like a big move, but I think it's only about three to 4% higher from current level. So it's not a huge move. But again, it would be the next leg up into the next major resistance. Okay, so let's go into a couple other charts here. Take a look. This is the US dollar decline on the 10 minute chart. So this was intraday. Look at the dollar as soon as that jobs data hit, having that big collapse. Again, the dollar is getting a small technical bounce. But what I'm seeing here, see this trend line down here? If we flip over to the daily chart, this is what is a major alert for me. Now, it's not breaking yet. It's kind of piercing. But if the dollar breaks here, this could begin that next move down. Now, this brings up another important point. Remember last week and early this week when I discussed the dollar-yen intervention, the coordinated effort by the US and the Japanese Central Bank to intervene and strengthen the yen against the dollar. And the US did it by selling euros to buy yen. Which again is... So number one, to have two countries actually intervene together in a coordinated effort is somewhat unprecedented. But then to use the euros and sell the euros, well, guess what? Now we're seeing the issue here. The dollar is already starting to decline. If you start dumping the dollar, if the US government starts dumping the dollar to strengthen the yen, it's only going to add more fuel to the sell-off in the dollar. So this is a big deal here, folks. We'll have to keep an eye on it. But the dollar, the DXY, is piercing this major trend line. Let's watch and see how this goes. Now, this is really good for gold and silver, and it's very good for Bitcoin as well. And remember, I came out a couple days ago and I said, guys, Bitcoin is going to break out here most likely based on the charts. Again, Bitcoin is starting to push. We're now above 65,000. I think there's upside to 71, then potentially 77,000 on Bitcoin. I'm a big bull near term. I still don't think Bitcoin's bottomed in the bear market. But I do think there is a chance, a solid probability of a bigger than most people expect rally in Bitcoin. And honestly, kind of following gold. Gold broke out of that wedge pattern. Today, it's having another monster surge on this data point. And again, eventually it will lift it. Rising tides lift all boats, as they say. All right, the 10-year yield. Look at the drop on the 10-minute chart on the yields, all the way down to 4.6%. Small bounce here. Daily chart on the 10-year yield. Again, basically just reversing this move from the prior day. But nonetheless, yields coming down is good for gold. It's good for obviously the stock market and potentially even good for Bitcoin. Now we're going to turn our attention, guys, to big movers in the stock market. As always, we'll get to gold. We'll get to silver, oil, nat gas, and Bitcoin. But let's take a look at some of these bigger names here. Teams is having a monster rally on the earnings report that they put out. Now Team, Atlassian Corporation, this has been a software play that the market has thrown out as like, they're never going to be anything. And I love situations like that. Because when everyone else hates on something and people overprice. Basically, it was like OAI is going to kill all of these names like Adobe and Team. I mean, you can go on and on. And we talked about this. I mean, these things got battered down. Well, guess what? All of a sudden, earnings are showing that Team isn't dying. It's actually had a great earnings report. The stock is up 30% on the morning session. Take a look here, guys. What a move. And you can see the sell-off on this thing. I mean, look at this sell-off. Absolutely incredible. Went from $327 down to a recent low of $57. Then on earnings, look at the move. From a close yesterday of $110 to almost $150 a share. Epic move here on Team. Now, where is the resistance point? The only level I'm eyeing, and this would only be for a day trade, is going to be in this vicinity. There's a very key zone here. And basically, if we got up to this level here between basically $167 and $176, low pivot here. You see all the sideways chop, the high pivot there, the low pivot right in here. That would be the zone. So it still has to go quite a bit higher for me to kind of nibble on this on the short side. But absolutely tremendous move. And you could argue that look at the chart setup, right? Could this have been a cup and handle pattern? And now the move up does look like very similar to what we see in technical analysis. Airbnb, great pop on this. And again, Airbnb, everyone talked about how, you know, booking was going to be done by AI and all this stuff. And we're just not seeing it fully yet. Maybe it hasn't advanced enough. But the bottom line is Airbnb is doing great. And the stock is rallying. Now, if we look at the bigger chart here, there is a trend line up here at $170, this pivot high. We're at $161 and change. That would be a short level for me today as a day trade if it gets there. Again, on a swing basis, I'd have to look back here and find a secondary factor. So I probably would not look to short into strength. In general, it's a very rare case where I'm swing trading a short the day of good earnings. And the main reason is, is because oftentimes good earnings, especially in a market that's near all time highs, is going to continue for a couple more days to kind of exhaust the buying right before it peters out. And so in general, I'll day trade these things going up, but I'm not going to swing trade them and hold them for longer periods of time looking for bigger gains. So TTD, not so good here, guys. I mean, this is just flat out nasty. Now, full and fair disclosure, I had a small position of this going into earnings and it just shows you that even though I'm not perfect, I certainly make mistakes. Luckily, it was a very small position. But nonetheless, I was looking at this. I'm like, wow, it's trading at a 10 forward PE, all of these things. And I was like, all right, you know, it's worth a small shot. Of course, if it goes down, I can dollar cost average, which is what I'm starting to do now on my swing trade. But the idea here is that, again, this this report was nasty. I mean, it just it just now listen, maybe the positive is that it's as bad as it's going to get it. You know, maybe management throughout the baby with the bathwater, as they said, which is what I'm hoping. But essentially, they missed on earnings. They missed on revenue. They lowered guidance. The saving grace to me is the CEO bought one hundred and forty eight million dollars in stock back in March at around twenty five to twenty six dollars. So the CEO is now down 50 percent on that by 50 percent on his entry. And you got to assume he's going to work his butt off to make that back. In other words, he's down about seventy five million dollars on that buy. Now, again, doesn't mean it can't go to ten dollars as we see. I mean, even today it was trading at multi year lows. We're now back at two thousand eighteen levels on this chart. So let's go to look at the chart. Where is where am I looking as a day trade? Twelve dollars ish, give or take. There's going to be a key level down sloping trend line there. The stock right now is down about 30 percent on earnings. And you can see, again, zooming out this stock just back here, folks, in twenty twenty four. Late twenty twenty four was one hundred and forty one dollars. It's now twelve dollars and forty nine cents. It's an incredible fall from grace. Now, just to be clear, the company is still profitable. They have over about they have about one point five billion in cash. It's only a six billion market cap. So there are factors that make it attractive. But needless to say that the management fumbled this in epic proportions. I mean, it's just pretty unbelievable, frankly. So all right, let's continue on here, guys. Twilio, big pop on Twilio here. Daily chart here. Again, a good move to the upside. If we zoom out on this, you can see that back in twenty twenty one. This was one of the top stocks out there. It has such a massive move up. We're just getting back to recent highs. I think it's going to go higher. This level in here would be where I would swing trade it on the short side around two seventy five to two seventy six. This little inside pivot is probably my first level to do that. Just a couple other stocks before we move on to gold and silver. But what we have is I'm eyeing Microsoft as a swing short. There's a gap fill at five oh seven at five twelve. There's a Fibonacci seven eight six retrace from the all time high here to this recent low. So that is right in at this five oh seven to five twelve level that is on my radar for a swing short. All right, let's move on to gold, guys. Gold having a blast off today. Again, you had the big breakout candle, the pause day and then another move up today. We're now actually hitting near term resistance. I gave you guys this just a few days ago. I said first resistance is going to be around forty three seventy five. Where am I getting that from pivot low and this base plate right here. And actually you could extend this out to this low over here as well. So this is the first test on gold on the bull move. I'll be watching very closely to see if it can get through or does it start to trickle back down. We'll watch this closely silver silver above this first trend line, but into the second trend line. This is a huge move on silver. Can it break through this level? This is what I'm going to be watching here. And again, basically a daily close above sixty four with confirmation. That would get me more bullish on silver. Right now I'm more neutral, maybe even expecting a pullback until proven otherwise. Oil today. We saw oil rallying yesterday a little bit pulling back today, which is also good for the markets. So a little bit of a downward move on crude oil here. Nothing really to write home about. But again, just watching and waiting on crude to see if there's a deal between the U.S. and Iran. Here's natural gas catching a good bid today. Didn't quite get to my technical level. Doesn't mean it can't in the next few days into next week, but at least today it is getting a solid bounce. We see natural gas up about a buck set 1.75% today on the day. And then lastly, Bitcoin guys. This has been something I've been eyeing. You have a very similar chart to gold, right? If we look back at gold, you have this down sloping wedge, right? And then price broke out. If we look at Bitcoin, here we have our down sloping wedge and price is breaking out. Can we get that big move up in Bitcoin? First resistance will be around 67. But this is a very optimistically bullish chart right now on Bitcoin. The question again is, can it push up and make that move like we've seen in gold? All right, guys. Wow, what a day. Don't forget, guys. I will be back at 4:20 for weekly wrap up live. And don't forget at 1:30 today, we have Crypto Combat Wrecked or Rich debuting again. We kind of took a hiatus. But today we have three traders trading $10,000 portfolios on crypto or in crypto. And basically we have 45 minutes to make as much money as we can. You watch us trade live. You watch us trash talk. It's at 1:30 PM right here on our homepage of Verified Investing or on YouTube on the Verified Investing YouTube. Check it out, guys. This is probably our most fun show. We have lots of serious shows that talk about data and charts and probabilities. This is one of them that's, it's just fun. And we just, we just, I mean, we use leverage. I'll use, I think I'll use like 200x leverage today. And I'm going to try to blow these guys out or I'll get wrecked, one or the other. But you join that and check that show out. It's a lot of fun. Have a great rest of your day. I'll speak to you a little bit later. Have a good one and take care.