Yen Intervention Signals New Crisis, Jobs Report Rushed To Keep Market Pump, Trade Levels

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a losing trader until I mastered technical analysis. Logic and charts beat hype and narratives every time. Now I teach investors the same techniques that made me a multi-millionaire. This is my trading game plan. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to my trading game plan. My name is Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist here at verifiedinvesting.com. So we do have some big things going on even though this is a shortened holiday week with the stock market here in the US closed on Friday. Yesterday we saw the markets rallying back after kind of the big sell-off in the AI trade. We saw early in the day a big flush in Micron, Sandisk and many other names, but they did recover by the end of the day. Micron ending basically flat to positive. Sandisk, for instance, flat to negative. Now the kicker is this. We know institutions go on holiday. My guess is yesterday morning, the massive sell-off was institutions getting their positions in order for the weekend, for the holiday weekend. And really you'll look at that and say, okay, chances are until next week, not a major thing happens. All right, we'll look at that in just a second. The other thing I want to point out is the jobs report. Now usually it's on Friday morning, the first Friday of the new month. This is interesting. We're seeing it rushed to market on Thursday morning and that tells us something. What do we know about President Trump? He will only do things if it's beneficial to the market or if it's going to make him and the economy look good. So he has two choices. One is delay it and say, oh, well, Friday the markets are closed, so we'll release it next week on next Friday. Or he's taking this path of rushing it out Thursday morning before the holiday weekend. So what do you think? Is it going to be good news or bad news? I think we know the answer to that. Now, just because it's good news and a better jobs report than expected doesn't mean it's going to have a great impact on the markets, right? Because remember, good jobs data could push interest rates up and force the Federal Reserve to potentially hike rates, although I don't think they'll do that. But just keep in mind the fact that that jobs reports coming out Thursday morning, chances are it's good news. All right, let's get into the charts here and take a look. The S&P futures closing yesterday right here. We see basically a flattish open. We were trading up a little bit in the pre-market, but have come back in to the flatline. Now, again, like I said, remember, institutional money, they generally take most of the week off. So in general, I would think neutralish market, maybe a float market over the next couple days, but nothing major, no major swings. Even with today being the last day of the quarter, maybe there's a little window dressing going on there. But for the most part, my guess is quiet action. Now, let's go to the bigger timeframe, the S&P 500. Here we are. So here's our bigger parallel that we continue to watch. And the reason why this is so important, folks, going back to the COVID lows, the highs of the bull market here in 2021, the bear market lows, the collapse in 2025 on the tariff sell-off, and then this high here in 2025, late into 2026, is because I'm very curious, not only do we have lower lows forming here, all right, but we might have a lower high. And if we break back inside of this parallel channel, that's what we call in technical analysis, a failed breakout. And failed breakouts, you might say, okay, well, it was a failed breakout. But historically, failed breakouts create the biggest moves in the opposite direction. So if a breakout fails, there's a lot of money that piled in on that breakout that then exits the market, and it can create a big sell-off there. So I'm watching this intently on the S&P 500. Really, what we're looking at is, do we close below 72.50? If we close below 72.50, then I think we're going to see a very quick drop all the way to these highs from 2025 into 2026 January at around 7,000. That'll be about a 250-point down move in the S&P 500. Now, what are some of the catalysts for this? Well, we obviously know that the AI trade is looking more and more like it is unwinding. For instance, we got a reversal engulfing candle on the weekly chart of the SOX, which is the ETF. Now, reversal engulfing candles here, that means the prior week, this was your prior week. And you can see here, you had your high, which is a little wick, and your tail, which is the low. And a reversal engulfing candle must open above the prior week's high, which it did, and close below the prior week's low. This candle formation in the charts is more powerful than a topping tail. Now, listen, just because it's more powerful doesn't guarantee it works out. There's no such thing as guarantees in the stock market or in anything really, except maybe death and taxes, as they say. But the point is, again, these reversal signals do have teeth a majority of the time, and we're already starting to see it in names like NVIDIA, as we've talked about, right? NVIDIA on the daily chart, you can see it's already significantly off of its recent highs, and it's testing a potential confirmation of a breakdown of this technical support. We've looked at Broadcom's chart and many others, and even something like a Micron, which had these great earnings last Wednesday after the close and was up 14% on Thursday. As of yesterday's lows, we had given back everything from those earnings. Now, it did get a bounce back into the end of the day, but still, that move oftentimes marks a high. And by the way, remember a famous company that reported earnings and shot higher dramatically, and then that was the top on the stock, and it's collapsed over 50%. You guys might be thinking of what I'm thinking. Do you guys remember? Oracle. Oracle, right? This was the gap up on earnings on Oracle back in September of 2025, and it was literally the top as the stock came in. And by the way, I'm seeing more and more talk about memory alternatives. Now, you might say, well, what memory alternatives? Well, believe it or not, Apple is in negotiations with buying memory from a China company that is actually technically banned, but they're trying to negotiate with the administration to get a pass to buy memory from these other places. And so again, keep in mind, memory, semiconductors, they are cyclical. You may say this time is different. That's okay. I understand that. I've heard that so many times in my career. It's never honestly been this time is different, but if you want to go with that, that's fine. But just be very, very careful here as again, things like Micron mirror the Oracle top and also the technical negative divergences are very, very powerful right now. All right. So let's go into a couple other things. Another risk for the market is this chart, the dollar yen, the dollar yen. Look at this. What is going on here? If we look at this chart and we zoom out, we have a potential breakout on the dollar yen. What is this telling us? It is telling us that the yen is weakening significantly more. And basically the dollar is breaking stronger against the yen. Now you may say, well, who cares about that? Well, there's trillions of dollars reliant on the yen carry trade, right? So we have that aspect. In addition, my sources are now telling me that the Japanese central bank and the government are now looking at intervention with the U S coordination to try to stem this because it has a history of causing freak outs in the market. Good example of this in July and August of 2024, the NASDAQ declined 15% in just a few weeks when the yen pushed up like this, or I should say the dollar yen pushed up like this, the weakening dollar, and then they intervened and they brought it back down and that saved the day and allowed the bull market to continue. So there is a history and we're breaking above that high of issues related to the yen weakening significantly against the U S dollar. And that's what this dollar yen chart is showing. So keep it on your radar over the next couple of weeks. Let's number one, see, do we get intervention? And number two, do we see any market blips on the screen? Now, before we get into other charts, I do want to just remind you that right now we're running our July 4th holiday sale on courses, 40% off every course out there, folks on our website, go grab them while they're hot. This will only last for another week or so, and then it is gone. And we don't do sales very often twice a year at most. So this is one of those times. If you have a course that you've been looking at on verified investing.com and you saying, man, I really want to learn that or I want to improve. I launched, for instance, my mindset course, which is all about getting your, your emotions under control. Go check it out. Pick one of those up, guys. They will change your financial future. In my humble opinion, as again, they change the way you view the markets. You get much more analytical and make decisions based off logic and probability versus just hopes and dreams. Hopes and dreams are great. Don't get me wrong, but they don't help you in the market very often. All right, let's continue on here. We have the AVAV pop today. This is Arrow and Arrow Virement. This is a drone company reporting earnings yesterday after the bell, big pop already coming back in on the chart. What's interesting about this one is it is very, very low. If you look at this, this was a $400 plus stock back in October of 2025. It bottomed out going into earnings at $135, $140. So it's getting a bounce. If you had to say, well, which way would this go? Yeah. You would say, all right, it's due for a technical bounce and it is getting that bounce as well. Now, what about a trade? Is there any trade here? This is a tough one because it's already beaten down. Even with this bounce here, look, it's only coming back to this area. So if I'm going to look to short a big pop, I need a very overbought scenario. I don't have it on this chart. The only level I would kind of look at would be right up here around 218. If for some reason it spikes up there as a day trade only, I would be interested. Other than that, I think we all know that the new form of warfare is drone warfare. And so generally on pullbacks, I'd be more interested in going along as a swing trade or investment on something like AVAV. As again, we've clearly seen it in Ukraine and even in the Iran-US conflict. Drones are cheap compared to missiles and they work. And so that's the future folks. Drone warfare is likely the future, especially once AI is in the mix and doing everything like that. All right. SpaceX yesterday did have a pop. Remember it's getting added to the NASDAQ 100, but today it is coming back in. This performance is atrocious, right? Now listen, it's still above the IPO price that insiders got it at. But again, it opened here at 150. It traded as high as 225 and it's trading right now in the pre-market at 161. What you're watching here, folks, and this is going to be very important. Notice on the charts, I'll zoom in, how the low of that first trading day has become technical support. If this line at 149, 150 gives its way and we get a daily close below this, I bet this goes back to $135, which is that IPO price. All right. At that price, you will see the institutions try to support it because again, any institution that was involved in this has a reputation and they have to protect that reputation. And so they will do their best to support it at $135 because it looks really bad when insiders end up being down on the position, right? I mean, it's one thing and listen, when retail, right, they don't care as much about retail because retail isn't paying their bills, right? When a company goes public, you hire these book runners, right? These institutionals, Blackrock, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, and you pay them literally a company like SpaceX paying them a billion dollars to bring them public, you better get results. And the idea is that you don't want it to go below that IPO value. So with open AI still potentially, I mean, again, it looks like they're going to extend out until 2027, but maybe anthropic, perplexity, these other ones, very important that holds up. Oracle remains on my radar, guys. Oracle, again, is at a very important trend line support. We talked about this per the big drop from the high on earnings, but on a technical basis, this is a really important technical level now for Oracle, basically the 145 level. If it starts breaking 145, watch out, you're headed down to 135. If that breaks, you're going down to $120 a share. And again, very important. Now listen, until this level breaks, it's technically a buy as long as a tight stop is initiated, which would be at a break of that trend line, because you're at support. It's just the question is, can the support hold? Let's move on to gold here. Gold initially overnight flushing close to 3900, making a new short term low, but has come back and is now flat to positive on the day. This is still technical support on gold. So we'll have to see if it continues to hold. If this breaks, 3500 is your next target. If we can hold this, we should test this upper trend line around 4300. And then we start watching for a breakout. I continue to really be bullish on gold mid to long term. The question is, which way is the wedge in the short term going to break? If it breaks lower, I'm a buyer. Put it to you that way. I do think again, gold is especially, I'm not a buyer of the Kevin Warsh hawkish scenario. The president would have never appointed him if he was going to be a steadfast hawk. So my guess is his first press conference was the, Hey, I've got to show that I'm independent and I'm hawkish and show the markets that we're going to be stringent on inflation. But all in all, I don't expect rate hikes this year, even though the market's pricing it in. And I don't expect anything next year except cuts. I do think we see cuts next year in interest rates. Will that be bullish for the market? Historically, it is as long as the economy is strong. If the economy is weakening, then that's when believe it or not, historically, the markets sell off on Fed rate cuts. All right, silver just going sideways. This looks right now to be a bear flag formation. So keep that in mind. Downside support 54 and then $50 on silver. Oil today, you can see here, that's my monthly chart on oil. Oil is catching a little bit of a bid here. We talked about how this was support. I even said that I was long on oil in the near term with smart money commodity members at verifiedinvesting.com. So again, right now that is holding. I still think we could go as low as here, but really again, with strategic reserves being needed to be refilled, it's unlikely we're going to see a move below 67 on crude oil in the near term. If the economy weakens, of course, then oil goes much, much, much lower. But in the near term, likely 67 is a low pivot with upside potential. Looking at this chart here, this is natural gas. Had a little bit of a dump yesterday, right back up. We just continue to be in this same pattern. I'm glad I haven't committed any capital because really nothing's happened now for multiple weeks. I still think at some point, we're going to get a break one way or the other. I would slightly lean bullish because of the cup and handle pattern, but I don't have enough factors to warrant a long position for me. Lastly, let's look at Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not looking good today, guys. Bitcoin now down $1,700 to $58,400. If we get a daily close below this trend line, and then it confirms tomorrow, you're probably headed to $53,000 and then $50,000 on Bitcoin. So again, we have to watch where this candle goes today, right? So this is really important right here. Right now, it's below the line. The line is around $58,800. So that would kind of be the line in the sand. Do we close above or below that line? But again, something to keep on your radar here for today as Bitcoin really just can't get out of its own way, folks. I mean, yes, it had some bounces along the way. But again, the bias continues to be weakness until proven otherwise. Every bounce is either a bear flag or a short term little blip. And then we've seen lower lows. All right. On that note, I've got to get to my trading room, the live day trading room. Remember, we have daily passes. So if you're off for July 4th, come in. Obviously markets are closed on Friday, but Monday through two or it's yesterday through Thursday, we'll be in there trading. And then obviously next week, we have weekly passes as well. And of course, monthlies. I'll see you in there. We've rocked it recently over 10,000 in profits yesterday. Take care. Have a great rest of your day.