James Carville: The Democratic Wave Was Just the Beginning — Politics War Room

[0:00] Hey, James, let's talk about the Republicans. As a young reporter, I covered this 1974 midterms. [0:07] What a gay president driven from office. Republicans lost 49 seats. They were despondent. [0:13] It is worse today, much worse, and it's going to be harder to come back. One critical difference, [0:20] Jerry Ford had taken over as president back then. Today's Republicans are saddled with Donald Trump. [0:26] You know, Trump was on the ballot last week in voters' minds in that historic rejection. [0:32] He's a bitter loser. He's confused, flailing one day, accepting the election the next day, [0:38] saying it was rigged. One day, saying open to immigration bill. The next day, [0:43] tapping Stephen Miller, the hate-mongering bigot, as chief of staff. Stephen Miller in the same chair [0:50] occupied by the likes of Jim Baker and Leon Panetta. You know, desperate for attention, [0:55] James. Trump's going to soon find out that most people are tuned out to him. They don't really [0:58] care much. He'd like to get rid of some of his bad cabinet members, but who's he going to replace [1:03] him with? What smart, self-respecting Republican would want to serve with Trump? But Republican [1:09] politicians in Congress and elsewhere are stuck with him. No one more than J.D. Vance. After a [1:16] disgraceful campaign this fall, Vance desperately wants to strike some distance from Trump. Good luck, [1:22] J.D., that Donald goes after anyone that doesn't worship him. You know, three months ago, I would [1:29] have said, and I think you might have agreed, Vance was the clear odds-on favorite for the 2028 [1:36] presidential nomination. Today, I'd bet on Ron DeSantis over J.D. Vance. Yeah, well, thank you. [1:43] I think it made just the most colossally stupid mistake that you can make as a first act. Well, [1:53] it's probably one of the last acts of this Congress was to make Jim Jordan Republican House [1:59] leader. And pedophilia is all everywhere. And as I understand it, you know more about than I do. [2:07] What is he faced with? Aren't there depositions coming up? I mean, this is not- [2:11] Well, they had depositions, and they haven't come out yet. We hope they'll be out, you know, [2:16] in a few months. This is over why he covered up the Ohio State sexual abuse cases. [2:23] Absolutely. And if you read about it, there's no doubt about it. So, the Democrats need to blow this [2:29] up. They need to introduce the Child Safety and Protection Act of 2027. And then they talk about [2:36] Dennis Hassler. They need to talk about Paul Pressler and Mike Johnson and Paul Pressler and [2:43] Ken Paxson. They want to run right at it. I mean, it's actually kind of true. Either participating in [2:54] pedophilia or tolerant of pedophilia. And we ought to bring that out. And we ought to bring it out and [3:01] hold committee hearings. What would Fox do if Hakeem Jeffers was a cover-up of a pedophilia [3:10] scandal? I'll tell you what. They'd have a special edition. [3:14] Yeah. Well, Jordan was, he was the assistant coach at Ohio State. There was a doctor who was [3:19] sexually abusing a number of wrestlers and other athletes. Jordan said, hey, I knew nothing about [3:25] it. There were about eight wrestlers on his team, a referee, his coaches, others, all who said, [3:31] of course he knew about it. And he's lied consistently. Don't wrestlers say he knew [3:35] about it? Yes. Yes. Actually, people in the ass said he knew about it. Yes. People said they [3:41] talked to him about it. So, yes. And he just thinks he's escaped it in large part because of the [3:47] politics in Ohio. But I, you know, I think you're right. The Democrats in the House of Representatives [3:52] in the United States said, in the name of a just and merciful God, introduced the Child Safety [3:58] Protection Act of 2027. Yeah. I did a video yesterday. I said that Amy Acton should introduce [4:05] it incorrectly. She's not the senator she's the governor, but she could speak out on it. [4:12] And any other Democrats that have been, you know, they're out there. Unfortunately, victims [4:17] of predators when they were young, you know, get behind this piece of legislation. Yeah. And [4:24] there's all kinds of things you can do. You can stop it. But you say, well, you're just playing [4:30] politics. Well, a little politics in this, but it's also, I think, stopping, doing what you [4:35] can to stop pedophilia is good policy. I'm sorry. [4:38] You know, the GOP's only hope is Democrats are going to screw it up. I don't think they [4:43] are. First, they have big enough majorities that any fringe group really doesn't have much [4:48] leverage. And they can prioritize policies and investigations, some of the stuff you were [4:54] talking about. But on affordability, you know, repeal the Medicaid and the ACA cuts, increase [5:00] the minimum wage, vote to end the Iran war, adopt a tough ethics package, you know, eventually [5:05] increase taxes on the wealth and crackdown on private groups like private equity and guardrails [5:12] for data centers. That's not hard to do. And they can be done. But simultaneously, Jamie Raskin and [5:20] Robert Garcia in the House, Sheldon Whitehouse in the Senate can have tough targeted investigations [5:26] of the massive Trump corruption. And also, by the way, immediate release of the Epstein file. [5:32] This is done separately and simultaneously. James, it's not an either or. Should we focus on [5:38] affordability or accountability? Both is the answer. Yeah. I hear this talk about we got to go big. [5:47] We got to pass Medicare. First of all, if you pass it, it's going to be vetoed. Secondly, why not [5:54] explore the Medicare eligibility age to 63 or something like that? All right. We don't do things that they [6:04] can run against you on in 2028. Just do smart, popular things. They won't get signed. But the last [6:14] thing we need to do is make a huge policy statement by signing stuff that would be very attackable by the [6:21] other side or divide the Democratic Party. That whole go bold, go big, go now. There's something wrong with [6:33] these people. There really is. I don't mean that. I don't want to say that they're not nice people or something [6:39] like that, but their minds are warped or closed. They're the most closed-minded people I've ever seen. [6:46] Well, champions have lost causes, too. But, you know, separately, Chuck Schumer's job as Senate now, which will be [6:56] majority leader, is under really serious challenge. I think he's going to win, but people don't seem to [7:03] understand. The top congressional leader has two jobs, an inside job and an outside job. Schumer does [7:10] the inside job really well. He knows the caucus. He can count votes. He understands procedures and [7:16] priorities. He knows how to work with the House. That's tough to replicate. Candidates, however, say they [7:23] cringe when Schumer went public, as he does so often. Delegate the outside role, as others like [7:29] Harry Reid did, to the Alyssa Slotkins, Chris Van Hollins, Chris Coons, and some of those impressive [7:35] freshmen. Schumer, I want Schumer to stay a Senate majority leader, but I want him to stay inside. [7:43] Yeah, I think that's a really good point. I mean, the last thing that we need, and by the way, [7:50] from my side of the equation, the political side, he's got two jobs, recruit good candidates and [7:57] raise as much money as he possibly can. I'll give him a high grade on recruiting. People are like, [8:01] oh, well, he got Janet Mills or Haley Stevens. All right. Then he got Sherrod Brown. He got [8:07] married. He got a whole lot of other people. Roy Cooper. Yeah, Roy Cooper was big. I mean, [8:13] the most successful statewide politician of my lifetime, not even close, is Roy Cooper. [8:23] James, that's going to be my compliment, not my outrage, but my celebration on Roy Cooper. [8:30] Okay. Well, you're absolutely right. You cannot celebrate. That way, the House went from 10-4 [8:36] Republican and 10-4 Democratic, and somebody almost won another couple of them. [8:40] Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, it's amazing. It really is amazing. I want to put up one note of mini [8:48] caution. Impeachment. You know, if they want to go ahead and impeach Pete Hexeth again, I guess okay. [8:57] It seems to me that it's a bit of a wasted effort. Hexeth is a lowlife. He has been a despicable [9:06] defense secretary. He endangers our national security. Robert Kennedy, I think, is endangering [9:12] lives, costing lives. Todd Blanche is really the most dishonorable attorney general we've ever had. [9:20] But you know, impeachments, they take a lot of time. They take energy. They divert attention, [9:24] and they don't have a successful conclusion. Investigate. Investigate hard. But I'm really not [9:32] interested in a lot of impeachments. I guess I would be a little bit different. I mean, [9:39] if what Bobby Kennedy is doing is not an impeachable offense, there's no such thing as an [9:45] impeachable offense. Yeah. And I mean, a point person there, of course, has got to be Dr. Annie [9:51] Andrews. All right. That's pretty clear. And people got to know how dangerous and crazy and how many lives [10:02] in state, particularly children's lives, by the idiotic policies of Maha or whatever. I mean, [10:09] it's really, I mean, it's, I think she'll be on the point on this. And when you get, but if you [10:16] develop information and people get it, they might support impeachment more. And Pete Hedspeth is just, [10:23] he'd be impeached for destroying the morale of senior military officers. He'd be, in my mind, [10:27] that's the highest, highest impeachable offense you can come up with. Yeah. I just don't want to [10:34] spend, there's so many other things to spend that time and energy on. You know, you know what I got [10:40] to, I must say, I got a kick out of the White House counsel, Will Scharf, warning congressional [10:46] Democrats that it could be a crime to investigate Trump officials. I mean, basically to go after [10:53] someone, he said, for partisan reasons might be a crime. You know, Mr. Scharf, you want to go back [10:58] to Harvard Law School. You apparently have forgotten anything if you, if you learned it to begin with. [11:03] This is an administration that went after James Comey, that went after Cassidy Hutchison, that went [11:08] after Mark Kelly, that had one after another attempts to indict people thrown out by grand juries. [11:15] And they have the, I'm sorry, James, they had the balls to say it's a crime to go after people [11:22] for partisan reasons. Good God almighty. You know, at the end of the day, I guess it would be some [11:30] exceptions, but maybe not. They're just rotten ass people. I mean, they would just need to call that [11:36] for it. They're just rotten human beings. No, I mean, the stuff that they've done, and I don't know, [11:43] like, take a guy like Todd Blanche. I guess, you know, maybe he's fine with himself. I don't know. [11:51] But I mean, what he's doing is, like, just staggering. And I just think that they're not, [11:58] they're just rotten people. Yeah, I think you're right. James, give us a report on the Mississippi [12:05] Senate race. I will give you a report on the Mississippi Senate race right this minute. [12:12] All right. Excuse me. I promised it. I told you I would. And of course, Scott, I mean, [12:27] Brandon Presley texted me this morning, and there is no doubt, there is no doubt, called the thing. [12:36] It's now 3,000 votes. Now, what I think that they say, well, there's an official canvas on Friday. [12:45] Okay. You know, and I don't know with Cindy Hyde-Smith. I mean, she's lost and just end it. [12:50] And what she should do is they ought to make a deal for Cindy Hyde-Smith to concede it and resign [12:59] and then make a deal with Tate Reeves, the governor of Mississippi, to appoint Scott to the seat. [13:05] Why do I say that? That'll give him a little more seniority. All right. And it's happening. [13:11] It's going to happen. And in Brandon, who knows every county, every vote, there's no way. It is [13:20] done. It is. Don't worry about it. It's over. And I've heard from JB that Alaska is done. I guess [13:30] if Mississippi is 101% done, Alaska is 98% done. Well, yeah, because she's running again about, [13:37] I don't know, 3,000 votes ahead. And she's about almost at 49%. Now, if you don't get 50, [13:45] they go to ranked choice voting. And the general sense is she will at least do as well as Sullivan [13:50] and ranked choice voting. So, you know, if it's not 100, it looks like it's 99 or 90. That's 56 [13:58] Democratic senators, James. Damn. It's huge. It's going to be 56. It's huge. And, you know, [14:07] well, first, what did I do after the election? I looked at the Senate map for 2028. Target number [14:16] one, well, Chuck Bass is not going to run for re-election. And that process will be handled by [14:21] Governor Rob Sand. And there will be one Democrat. And there's not going to be any question about [14:28] that. Probably the juiciest target and the one that people just, this guy, whoever runs against [14:36] Ryan Johnson, they're going to raise $100 million. As long as the Wisconsin Democrats don't screw it [14:43] up as they have in the past. I know. And they could. But I'm hopeful. And I mean, David, [14:49] the governor is, I think he's a pretty smart guy. Yep. And that's a huge job of his. It's good when [14:58] you got the governor because the governor can maintain discipline. Florida is up, which is, [15:05] you know, North Carolina. And that guy, Bud, he's a fool. He's really gettable. And Roy Cooper and [15:15] Governor John Stein, they will come up with a candidate. And there won't be any stupid primaries [15:20] in North Carolina. I'm going to tell you the one that they're kind of looking at. Okay. I'm just [15:27] saying this. Listen up, Utah Democrats. The powers to be are taking a long, hard look at Utah. And that [15:37] guy. Is that Mike Lee? Yeah. His daddy was a kind of well-respected big deal when he was talking [15:44] to Ashley. This guy is a, he's not that popular. He's a down the line Trumper. The LDS people do [15:54] not like Trump. Utah has a growing state. It's a very beautiful state. There's a lot of migration into [16:03] the state, a lot of tech, a lot of educated people. I'm telling you, old James told you right here, [16:10] Utah is on the watch list for the 2028 Senate. You got that, Mike Lee? They're getting ready to [16:16] give you a call on Oscar. That's a painful concept. James, I'll just say that I'm going to try to get [16:26] to some of those. We had 25 candidates on this year. 19 House candidates were on our show this year. [16:33] I think 22 or 23 of those 25 won. And I'm going to write them all and ask them to please come back [16:40] sometime next year because they were great candidates. My guess is they're going to be really, really good [16:46] members of Congress also. Well, one thing about the program, I guess you're an ancient mind, but [16:54] pretty, we don't spike the ball. I don't spike the ball on two things. First, we were not in doubt [17:02] about, well, I wasn't at least, in doubt this is going to be a monster year. The other thing that [17:08] we called right on the money and now is that the black vote was going to be huge. There was all of [17:14] this talk about Democrats losing contact, of course, with black voters, et cetera. Now the analysis has [17:21] come out. And the question is, is this a one-off thing or are we going to see a continuation of [17:30] black engagement? And what can we do to do that? But it was astronomical. By the way, I also forgot [17:38] 40% of the whites in Georgia. That's a lot. Same thing with the Latino vote, too. I mean, [17:46] that was hugely important. Yes. Okay, man, these are fun times to talk about it, isn't it, James? [17:55] Got it. Enjoy a cup of broda. The flavor base for anything that you cook, particularly in the [18:02] months where you've eaten a lot of soups and sous, is a really good broth. 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The man nailed the whole thing. Nailed the young [21:16] vote. Oh, and now we got a lot to talk about. Great. John Delavote. He a poll so far. [21:24] Welcome to the program. John is the main man of polling at Harvard University and has his own [21:31] outfit connected to Cambridge. But we got so much we want to talk to you about, John. But let's start [21:38] with sort of where James started out with, which was broadly speaking, there's a lot of narrative [21:43] about polling these days and do you guys get it right? Do you get it wrong? What's the general [21:49] narrative or just general reality about this cycle and who got it right, who didn't and why? [21:55] I think the broad picture, Mark, is that everyone basically kind of got it right, which is that there [22:02] were two or three, I think, of the significant factors to understand this race, right? One of [22:07] which is there was clearly kind of a referendum and a rebuke on Trump that was coming. We've seen [22:13] that in the polling for a couple of years. That's one. The second thing is recognizing the impact that [22:21] two core constituencies that were responsible for electing him two years ago, Hispanic voters and young [22:28] voters, specifically younger men, where were they in the polling at Harvard's IOP and throughout the [22:35] rest of the research I've been looking at showed that their views of Trump were at record lows as [22:42] well. So to me, that's the way in terms of judge polling, do we have a consistent understanding of [22:52] what public opinion is around the country? If you apply that model, then it should not be shocking. [22:58] That the polls were generally kind of accurate in terms of seeing that the Democrats had advantage [23:08] across most every single state because they were also just far more kind of engaged and motivated. [23:15] And I think that the number of Democrats outperforming the polls is something that's worth thinking [23:22] about. But I think it's likely in the final days with the enthusiasm among Democrats, I think you could [23:27] argue that more people moved later for Democrats than some of the other polls might have predicted. [23:36] So it's really just a matter of most people had kind of had it directionally. And it's just that, you know, [23:43] of course, the modeling is all based on past turnout. And this turnout was just massive, right? [23:47] Yeah, it was, it was, it was just massive. But again, I think that we spend too much time focused on the aspects of the model and not enough time talking about what is truly kind of in the hearts and minds of voters in this cycle. And in this cycle, it was clear they rejected what was happening for the last couple of years, because their lives were fundamentally worse off than better off. That is what we, and if we, and that is, I [24:18] always say, I did a lot of briefings, Mark, right? We all do a lot of briefings. And I said, I'm not going to tell you within a couple of points. That's not my job to tell you about Michigan or, or, or Mississippi or Alaska or Maine. What I can tell you is this is the wave that's coming. This is why. And that is how we have to kind of think of it. [24:34] John, you, you've mentioned young men and you, you've really done a lot of studying of, of, of Gen X, uh, Gen Z, sorry. Uh, and, and young men. They, they voted for Trump, uh, in 2020. [24:48] 24, which was pretty shocking. Uh, and, and I gather what you're telling me is that, that they'd swung back pretty solidly. And this was a demographic. I mean, I think a lot of what they were saying back then was the Democrats haven't listened to us. No, you know, and, and Donald Trump has. So was it just that Trump didn't disappointed them and what they thought he was going to deliver? Or was it also Democrats paying attention for a change? [25:12] Yeah. Yeah. Well, yeah. And let's start, there was no group that swung harder, faster in the electorate than younger men. This is a group that 55%, you know, according to most of the exit polls and analysis from 2024, supported Trump 55 to 41 plus 14. And in, in the, and in this cycle, over 60% of young men supported, um, house supported house Democrats. That means white [25:42] young men. That means non-college men. That means college men across most every single sub group. I think it was an overreach, um, certainly clearly an overreach for pundits and commentators to say from the 24 election that, gee, all of a sudden we've, we've raised, uh, uh, you know, a generation of misogynists, you know, anti-democratic misogynists who must be for this guy. [26:07] It was a fact that two things, I think one is Trump understood their mindsets. Okay. And he understood how to communicate that with them through media and Democrats, I would argue, actually seated the playing field. Okay. And they clearly voted for him, not because they agree on every single issue, but they thought he'd be better off for kind of, uh, for their finances and make them feel more secure and stable. [26:31] Young men, it didn't take 75 days. It was, it was before spring break, Mark, where they started to see in the month to month polling that I do at social sphere and crowd box. They started to, we started to see that, that, um, that disappointment actually, um, kind of rise. [26:48] And we saw a slow and steady decrease of support, uh, among young men from, from March of 25 through today. There was a 70 points shift in, in, in, uh, in days before the election, 58% of all young men thought that Trump was having a negative impact on their lives, detrimental effect on their lives personally. [27:05] Fascinating. [27:07] So, uh, so, uh, so John, we, we did a exhaustive democracy court poll at the end of the election and post election, enormous number of interviews and 20% of the people made up their mind in the last five days. [27:24] There you go. [27:25] And that almost universally made up their mind to vote democratic. [27:28] Exactly. [27:29] And we're polling in, you know, there's an expression that keep using and it, it actually makes a lot of sense, run through the tape. [27:37] Okay. [27:38] Because we all, because, well, I got the early vote, you know, you know, run through the tape, the polls don't close at eight, it close at 815. [27:47] Mm-hmm. [27:48] Because that, in this election, there were a lot of, a lot of late deciders. [27:52] What was the Harvard youth poll, um, was conducted a month before the election. [27:59] Right. [27:59] And I think we had 28, I can check the number. [28:02] I think we had 28% of, of likely young voters support Republicans. [28:07] That number was exact to what I saw in the, the exit polls. [28:12] The difference was the seven or so percent who were undecided all went Democrat, you know, voted for Democrats because of the enthusiasm at the, at, at, at the end. [28:23] But one of the things I thought was really interesting about the kind of the Harvard, uh, youth poll was we could see, we, we talked before about 2018 being kind of a high watermark record turnout among younger people. [28:39] 70% voted Democrat, very similar to what we saw, um, uh, a week ago. [28:44] But the difference that we picked up was that Democrats were about as enthusiastic as they were in 18 and 22, but there was a 16 point delta between Democrats and Republicans. [28:55] But really it was the non-MAGA Republicans who were tuning out. [29:00] And I think that's a, that's a big lesson. [29:02] That's a big lesson because that may not be the case in two years. [29:05] I'm going to read you something, uh, on Axios by a reporter named Alex Essens-Stott. [29:11] I, I don't know him by, I know him by reputation. [29:14] I obviously know Mike Allinger, man, reliable people. [29:17] Reliable people. [29:18] This is an open graph. [29:20] Stephen Miller wants to use his new role as White House Chief of Staff to win back young and minority men who helped elect President Trump in 2024, but swung toward the numbers in midterm. [29:32] How is Stephen Miller, you and Stephen Miller called you and said, I need some advice. [29:37] I'm been, this is my job in the White House. [29:40] You studied this. [29:41] I want to get minority young non, I'm going to get non-white voters under 30 back in the Republican tent. [29:50] Yeah. [29:51] It's easy. [29:52] It's easy. [29:53] No, no, no, no. [29:54] The advice would be very simple, right? [29:56] Which is end the war, um, right? [29:58] Lower the cost of living and build million houses. [30:01] Yeah. [30:02] If you do those three things, you can have a, you can have a relationship, a political relationship with younger men. [30:07] The war is a big factor. [30:08] Yeah. [30:10] Things, things were, as I said, within 75 days, uh, uh, of, of the administration, people were already beginning to kind of lose favor. [30:18] Younger men were in the war, just exact exacerbated that. [30:22] What was interesting is I think the two things, I think certainly the war, but also you talked about this before. [30:30] I was optimistic. [30:32] Um, I was optimistic and believed that the generic ballot would expand as the spring went to summer to fall, right? [30:40] Because the spring and the summer, it was really about the national democratic brand. [30:45] And, uh, as, as, as, as, as younger people would be looking at the individual candidates in the states, I felt that the generic ballot, um, nationally and also the local polling would, would increase because the Democrats had strong candidates. [31:00] That was the case. [31:01] That was the case, but also I think enabled, and we picked this a lot up in the day and the polling that we've done afterwards using crowd boxes platform that younger people were forced to make some, to do their own research. [31:13] Okay. [31:14] Okay. [31:15] So they were unhappy with Trump. [31:16] They were concerned about the war and they started to like do some research about the differences between Democrats and Republicans for the first time. [31:23] And actually felt good with their kind of decisions in terms of they realize that not every Democrat running was part of the establishment and they did their work. [31:33] And we talked to a lot of voters who went from Trump, young men from Trump to Tallarico, from Trump to Cooper, et cetera. [31:40] And, and doing their own research was an important part, I think of that, of that process. [31:45] So when the, I don't know, December, the national, but the New York times, you just use them. [31:51] When they see a young person, they see like their daughter from Swarthmore bought three home, three kids for Thanksgiving. [31:58] And that's the idea of what a young person, give our listeners a kind of composite of what, what a young person is. [32:07] Is it more likely to be black or, or, or is this most likely people of color? [32:12] Is it more likely to be Caucasian? [32:13] Yeah. [32:14] Is it more likely to be at a four year college? [32:17] How many have owned a minimum wage? [32:18] I mean, let's talk about what young people really are, as opposed to their illusion of what they are. [32:24] Sure. [32:25] So when we look at all 18 to 29 year olds, roughly half a white and roughly half a non-white. [32:31] Okay. [32:32] The second, the second largest group are Hispanic Latino, which is almost a quarter, somewhere, you know, between 21, 22%, roughly 13, 15% or so are going [32:43] to be black African-American, right? [32:45] That's kind of one part. [32:48] You know, most don't have a college degree about, I think a third or so have, have, have a college degree. [32:55] One of the really interesting, I think data points in this data is certainly with the younger men is there was, I think a single digits, I think a low single digit gap between non-college and college younger men in terms of their support for Democrats last week. [33:12] That's striking. [33:14] That's striking. [33:15] That is striking. [33:16] Right? [33:17] Very interesting. [33:18] Right. [33:19] The, the other thing about, about young people is that 20% of young women aren't straight. [33:28] They don't classify themselves as straight. [33:30] They classify themselves as gay or lesbian or bisexual, something like that. [33:34] Um, which is, which is just kind of worth kind of knowing and kind of, uh, I think also kind of understanding, but more than anything, younger people's question whether the basic social compact that we made to them, um, is something that they can believe in and have confidence in. [33:56] So whether that is someone who has a college education or whether it's someone who might have attended some college, some technical training or, or work in the service industry across the board, they are deeply concerned about their future. [34:13] Only 25% of this cohort believe they'll be better off than their parents. [34:18] Um, when I started the survey 26 years ago in those early days, 75% thought they'd be better off than the parents. [34:25] Wow. [34:26] Now it's 25. [34:27] Now it's 25%. [34:28] That's staggering. [34:29] That's staggering. [34:30] What was it 28 years ago? [34:31] 75? [34:32] A month. [34:33] Yeah. [34:34] When I started, I started only speaking with college students 25 years ago, James. [34:38] And, um, and, and right out in 2003, 2004, we started asking that question, 78% of college students thought they'd be better off than their parents. [34:46] Today it's 28%, a third of that. [34:49] Okay. [34:50] 9% said we're heading in the right direction. [34:53] Okay. [34:54] So, so again, half white, half non-white, mostly non-college, but everyone concerned about just having [35:03] the basic quality of life that their parents and grandparents were able to, uh, attain. [35:08] John, you mentioned, uh, you, you mentioned the war. [35:11] You mentioned cost of living. [35:12] You mentioned housing. [35:13] What role did ICE play with younger voters? [35:16] Yeah. [35:17] ICE. [35:18] It's funny. [35:19] ICE played, ICE played, uh, I think a significant role. [35:24] Certainly there's basically, certainly in some more states than other states, right? [35:29] Of course, I think, uh, in, in, in Texas, uh, clearly kind of, uh, ICE played. [35:34] And also, I think I was doing focus groups in January and February. [35:38] Um, when, when, when, when, when, when, you know, uh, people around the country just kind [35:43] of horrified at the murders kind of tape. [35:46] And I think that tuned people in to understand the real differences between the parties and the [35:53] difference that politics can make probably kind of more kind of on the left. [35:56] Cause one of the, uh, and I think it really could energize some of the, uh, some of the, [36:01] uh, you know, progressives, um, as well as Hispanic voters. [36:05] And one of the things, Mark, that I've always said is that to encourage a young person to, [36:10] to vote, they need to see the difference between the two parties. [36:13] Right. [36:14] It's funny. [36:15] In 2000, the young vote was a toss up. [36:17] Bush v. [36:18] Gore. [36:19] It was a toss up. [36:20] In fact, um, old seniors were slightly more likely to vote blue. [36:25] Republicans, Democrats had a heart, younger people had a hard time seeing differences, [36:28] you know, in what a Gore versus a Bush administration might look like. [36:32] Okay. [36:33] When you see. [36:34] Okay. [36:35] When you see innocent people. [36:37] Okay. [36:38] Kind of murdered in the streets at the hands of folks who were taking a, a, a government check. [36:43] There's almost nothing that more clearly indicates or shows how concrete political, [36:48] political decisions are. [36:50] So that I think had a meaningful, meaningful role in this, but the other bigger issue that, [36:56] uh, played, I think a kind of a role right around the kind of the economic angst is, is corruption. [37:02] James is something you've been talking about for quite a while. [37:05] Mark, I know you have too. [37:07] And I think that's really the big lesson. [37:10] I think also for me, um, over the last six or nine months, the degree to which this has [37:15] been coming up organically in my qualitative interviews and my focus groups, it's really [37:20] two heads of the same coin. [37:22] Yeah. [37:23] Uh, you know that I, I was, I was so relieved in a way to see the corruption finally break [37:28] through because for so long it wasn't, and it was just, I couldn't understand it. [37:32] It's like, why, why, why don't people care about this? [37:36] And there's a passage in Maggie Haberman's, uh, recent book on Trump. [37:40] And it was somewhere during the first year of the Trump administration where he was doing [37:44] some grip. [37:45] It was the main coin or something. [37:46] I forget what it was, but she describes how it was a light bulb moment for Trump because [37:50] there was no accountability. [37:51] And he, and he basically said, nobody gives a shit if I do this. [37:54] So that's when he sort of like spread the message to his, you know, his kids and his friends [37:58] and his relatives, get out the net and drag up as much as you can. [38:02] Yeah. [38:03] And I think. [38:04] It was tied. [38:05] It was tied to economics. [38:06] Right. [38:07] James. [38:10] Tied. [38:11] Yeah. [38:13] The corruption meeting. [38:14] Yeah. [38:15] Yes. [38:16] And some people did a good job of linking the two because he always, he, and I said [38:19] during, they kept calling me about, it's the economy. [38:21] I said, you know, to some extent I regret saying that because old man Bush was not corrupt. [38:27] Okay. [38:28] That was not an issue. [38:29] We didn't bring it up. [38:30] And didn't people would say stupid things on cable TV about people don't care about corruption. [38:34] They just care about their own wage growth. [38:37] No, they do care about corruption and corruption affects their own wage growth. [38:40] And they're not so stupid that they can't figure that out. [38:45] Yeah. [38:46] Here's the message. [38:47] I think is a point about corruption, specifically as you have so many new members of Congress. [38:54] It's bigger than just Trump in the eyes of these young voters who turned out. [38:58] It goes down to, um, the reason that, that they're in medical debt at the age of 28 years [39:05] old. [39:06] They call that corruption. [39:07] The reason that, you know, the AI is sucking the energy, right. [39:11] And the, uh, environment out from kind of their, their, kind of their, their, their [39:16] neighborhoods, they call that corruption. [39:17] Right. [39:18] So they're able to now link some of the ways in which they're being held back kind of, uh, [39:24] in life by the system as corruption in the Harvard poll. [39:28] I don't think any number, I think corruption was 56%. [39:32] So it was extremely important in their vote. [39:34] 56%, which is a huge number for the top box. [39:37] And the highest rated policy that we tested, which I think, and Joe Scarborough kind of, [39:44] uh, said this too, uh, the other day, which is HR one should be a ban on members of Congress [39:51] and their families trading stocks. [39:53] Thank you. [39:54] Thank you. [39:55] Thank you. [39:56] John Delavope is the, and do it in one minute. [39:58] You don't need fucking hearing. [39:59] You don't need anything. [40:01] Just ban stock traded by members of Congress and that family. [40:05] Well, what that would do is send a signal out. [40:08] Well, I ain't saying it different, but okay. [40:10] I'm a little more open to it. [40:13] That's how you get a crack in the door. [40:15] Ban it immediately. [40:18] And that is how, yeah. [40:20] House, house ban stock trading by members of Congress. [40:25] Schumer thrown in for his 60th term as, as, as, as leading the Democratic Party and ban stock [40:31] trade. [40:32] You know what? [40:33] That's critical. [40:34] I cannot tell you how much I agree with that. [40:37] It doesn't, you know, you could do a comprehensive code ethics, but that takes a while. [40:41] Even you got need fucking lawyers and you got everything. [40:44] Ban stock trade, nothing. [40:45] Just do it. [40:46] That's the signal. [40:48] That would be the most important signal that people were heard. [40:51] Thank you. [40:53] This is the most important thing that you will hear since the important thing you heard [40:58] since the election. [40:59] And I'm not, I'm not blowing smoke up John's ass, but I'm, this is what makes the sense. [41:04] I'm going to turn it back to Mark. [41:05] I'll tell you one story. [41:07] When in 92, they said, the guy that's organizing the college Democrats, I'm going to bring him [41:11] in and introduce him to you. [41:13] So the guy comes in and I said, great. [41:16] I said, where are you going? [41:18] And he said, well, I'm going to Duke. [41:19] Then I'm going to Georgetown. [41:20] Then I'm going to John Hopkins. [41:21] I said, you're going to do no such fucking thing. [41:23] You understand me? [41:24] You're going to Miami date. [41:25] And then you find the next four community colleges, two year colleges. [41:31] All right. [41:32] Cause you don't do any good there. [41:35] I mean, even that far back. [41:37] No, you're not, you're not going to Duke or Georgetown or John Hopkins. [41:40] The fuck are you talking about? [41:41] You're going right to Seattle. [41:43] I started organizing my fellow college students in the eighties for Dukakis. [41:47] It wasn't easy, but California was a swing state that, you know what I mean? [41:50] So we had three visits, but the other big picture, we've been talking about this for a while. [41:55] Please recognize that the, I would argue the most important coalition in politics in 28 is going to be the Gen Z and millennial coalition. [42:04] Okay. [42:06] Because generational politics still matters in, in Alaska and in Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Mississippi, Ohio, and Texas. [42:16] If not for, if the vote was only people over the age of 45, Republicans win all of them. [42:22] Okay. [42:23] And every one of those states, except for North Carolina, where Cooper won every age group, every one of those battleground states. [42:30] It was the margin of Gen Z and millennials that made the difference and power Democrats through. [42:38] So we spent a billion dollars on the last election and need to continue to invest in what they think and how to communicate, where to find them online and other places. [42:49] And, and that's, you know, that's a, you know, saying the obvious, that's a growing demographic. [42:54] And, you know, the place where a lot of those mega voters are, you know, older 65, and that's a cul-de-sac and that ain't going nowhere except, you know, six feet under. [43:03] So, John, let's, this has been terrific. [43:06] Thank you for joining us. [43:07] Let's just close out by any observations that you have. [43:11] I'm kind of curious, James and I were talking at the beginning of this about kind of what surprised us. [43:17] Was there anything that surprised you about this election? [43:20] And, or, I mean, I think you just gave us a good outlook about going forward, but any kind of just capsulation thoughts about surprises and, and, and the road ahead? [43:30] I think, I think a couple of things. [43:33] I'm surprised even at how well Democrats did in some of the redder states that they lost. [43:42] 75% of, of younger people in Florida voted Democrat with no daylight between Jolly and Nixon there, right? [43:48] So, so that's kind of consistent. [43:50] That reminds, that looks a lot like 2008, you know, to kind of during the early Obama years. [43:55] That's, that's, that's, that's one thing. [43:58] I am surprised also, I think, um, uh, seems like right. [44:03] That the, uh, African-American vote, uh, in Michigan really turned out, you know, in ways that, you know, I think kind of surprised me just kind of being there kind of on the ground. [44:12] I thought that was something that I wasn't sure about, you know, in terms of, um, uh, overall levels of support within that community kind of for our tool. [44:20] But the thing that surprised me in a negative way, I would say, which kind of concerns me is the ongoing debate, at least among the chattering classes about, is it a progressive or kind of a moderate, um, that's responsible for this. [44:36] Right. [44:37] I just think that's like a losing frame. [44:39] And I think that the frame has to be about finding individuals, right. [44:44] And that who can understand what it takes to help someone feel comfortable buying a home or getting healthcare or building kind of a future. [44:52] And it has to be about solutions rather than like labels and ideology, because that's not where voters are at. [44:57] This wasn't an ideological choice. [44:59] This was a choice about their own future. [45:02] And that's really where we need to focus. [45:04] I'm a little bit surprised, um, at some of that posture, but I guess that's what Washington does. [45:08] Well, I cannot thank you enough. [45:11] Thank you. [45:12] Ban stock trading by members of Congress and Senate. [45:15] Ban stock trading. [45:16] And do it now. [45:17] Don't pass though. [45:18] Don't collect $200. [45:19] Just fucking do it. [45:21] You can do it in one minute. [45:23] And the great John Del Volpe, you can engage better with young voters. [45:27] You know, people might even think you're going to do something slightly different. [45:31] That's a big ask, but thank you so much. [45:34] Ban stock trading. [45:35] Ban it now. [45:36] It, period. [45:37] End of story. [45:38] Let's do it. [45:39] All right, guys. [45:40] Thank you. [45:41] Della Volpe and Carville in Scarborough. [45:43] Calling it. [45:44] H.R. 1. [45:45] Get it done. [45:46] H.R. 1. [45:47] And I'm not a moderate Democrat. [45:48] I'm a fucking liberal Democrat. [45:49] Okay? [45:50] I'm not a... [45:51] You can either be a moderate or progressive. [45:52] Why can't I be a liberal? [45:54] That's my definition of myself. [45:58] Drift off to sleep with bean dream. [46:01] I'll tell you one thing. [46:03] It's critical. [46:04] If I had to convince you that a good night's sleep after a little tipsy night in a French [46:09] quarter is a really good thing, then you're not living in the same world I'm living in. [46:14] That's for sure. [46:15] Nothing feels better than facing the day when you've gotten a great night of sleep. [46:20] You feel better, you act better, and you perform at your peak. [46:23] And the easiest way to do that is with beam dream. 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[48:26] I am as excited as all of you are about the new Democrats coming to Washington, like Annie [48:32] Andrews and James Tallarico and Josh Turek in the Senate. [48:37] New House members like Kate Conley and Manny Runtanel, as well as a return of veterans like [48:43] Sherrod Brown. [48:44] But the most underreported heavyweight is Roy Cooper of North Carolina. [48:49] He has won statewide elections seven times in a purple reddish state. [48:56] This year, he not only won the Senate race by almost 20 points, his coattails enabled Democrats [49:03] to pick up at least a half dozen unexpected House seats in the United States Congress. [49:08] And for the first time in 15 years, control of the North Carolina State House. [49:14] You know, North Carolina has produced a couple of the best politicians of the past 60 years, [49:19] Terry Sanford and Jim Hunt. [49:21] Add Roy Cooper, the secretary of this year, and you have an all-star team of great political [49:27] leaders that few states can match. [49:30] Okay. [49:31] Today is Veterans Day. [49:34] Yesterday was the Marine Corps' birthday. [49:36] In my opinion, and this is a pretty mainstream opinion, the greatest Marine that ever lived was [49:44] Major General Smedley Butler. [49:46] The guy's got kind of an odd name. [49:48] If you don't know how much street cred he's got, try two medal of honors. [49:52] This is what he said. [49:56] I spent 33 years and four months in active service as a member of our country's most [50:02] agile military force, the Marine Corps. [50:05] I served in all commissioned ranks from a second lieutenant to a major general. [50:09] And during that period, I spent most of my time being a high-class muscle man for big [50:14] business, for Wall Street, and for the bankers in short. [50:18] I was a rocketeer for capitalism. [50:21] Thus, I helped make Mexico, and especially Tampico, safer American oil companies in 1914. [50:27] I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place for the National City Bank boys to collect revenues [50:33] in. [50:34] I helped purify Nicaragua from the International Banking House of Brown Brothers from 1909 to 1912. [50:44] I brought light to the Dominican Republic for the American sugar interest in 1960. [50:49] During those years, I had, as the boys in the back room would say, a swell racket. [50:55] I was rewarded with honors, medals, promotion. [50:58] Looking back on it all, I feel I might have given Al Capone a few hints. [51:03] The best he could do was operate a racket in three city districts. [51:08] We Marines operated on three continents. [51:11] You would never fucking forget that. [51:14] Okay? [51:15] Every time in my generation, what was it now? [51:19] But all a racket. [51:20] Who is making money on Iran? [51:23] What are these sailors doing? [51:25] They're eating, barely having any fucking rations. [51:28] Then go look at the profits of the big five oil companies. [51:33] Understand this, people. [51:34] I am not a pacifist, but I'm much closer to that than I'm an interventionist. [51:41] It's a fucking racket. [51:42] It was Smedley Butler. [51:44] Smedley Butler. [51:45] Two male of honor winners. [51:47] Two male of honor. [51:48] I don't know how many of them go through his whole fruit salad on his chest. [51:51] He tells you it's a racket. [51:53] Maybe you ought to pay attention. [51:55] And I think at some level, these young voters we're talking about with John Delamope, [52:01] they know it's a racket too. [52:03] They know it's a racket too. [52:05] And this whole thing is just, the money that is, the war profiteria that has gone on is [52:11] just breathtaking. [52:12] Breathtaking. [52:13] My outrage of the week has to do with the most influential person in AI falling into a [52:24] honey trap with a Chinese spy. [52:27] Not that that wasn't bad enough, but Donald Trump reportedly knew about this and let him [52:35] on the plane to China on a visit to China. [52:38] And now there's all kinds of backstories about Howard Lutnick doing deals with the Chinese [52:43] and got into almost a fistfight with the Treasury Secretary trying to help this company out. [52:51] And why would he be helping this company out? [52:53] Could it have anything to do with a Chinese spy? [52:55] I think this is the tip of a really big iceberg. [52:59] But once again, it's about Howard Lutnick making profits and friends and relatives just getting out the rake. [53:05] Brilliant. [53:07] And I saw this, and thank you for doing that. [53:09] And I think we're like one out in the top of the first inning here in terms of where we got to go from here. [53:19] I agree, man. [53:20] The corruption stuff, I mean, it's just what we know about is astonishing. [53:26] And like you said, I think it's just 1% of what we're going to find out. [53:30] I used to say that if more was stolen from January 20th to 2025, so today, the entire history of the country, [53:39] I'm going to modify that twice as much with stolen. [53:42] I think you're right. [53:45] I got to revise it upwards. [53:47] Save on sale service with Mint Mobile. [53:50] If you don't want to save money, if you like spending money on an inferior product, get something else. [53:55] If you want to save money with a really superior product, I highly recommend this. [53:59] Yeah. [54:00] Hey, remember being a kid in the holidays. [54:02] Anytime you would ask for something, Mom would always say, wait until the holidays. [54:07] Well, with Mint Mobile's holiday deal, there's no waiting. [54:10] Right now, this second, all their plans are $15 a month. 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[55:16] That's mintmobile.com slash warroom. [55:19] Cut your wireless bill to $15 a month at mintmobile.com slash warroom. [55:26] Now, the link is also in our show notes. [55:28] Limited time offer. [55:29] Upfront payment of $45 for three months, $90 for six months, or $180 for 12 months. [55:35] Plan required, $15 per month equivalent. [55:38] Taxes and fees extra. [55:39] Initial plan term only. [55:41] Greater than 50 GB. [55:43] May slow when network is busy. [55:44] Capable device required. [55:46] Availability, speed, and coverage varies. [55:48] See mintmobile.com. [55:50] All right. [55:51] I got a letter here from Mike. [55:53] Mike didn't give me his A's, but he's from Pueblo, Colorado. [55:57] And he wants to know, what do you think the Democrats need to do to try to solidify [56:05] the results of the last election? [56:08] I'll go to you with that one more. [56:09] Well, I mean, first of all, I think that the Democratic Party has spent a lot of time [56:15] in the desert over the last decade. [56:17] And when you're in the desert, you learn to find water. [56:20] And in people like James Tallarico, they found Moses. [56:24] Get them out. [56:25] Listen and watch people like James Tallarico. [56:28] Listen to this new Adam Hamilton in Kansas. [56:30] Anybody starts talking about DEI or, you know, crazy DSA stuff. [56:35] Look at Roy Cooper. [56:36] Look at these guys, you know, who are winning in, you know, were once reliable red states. [56:43] That's the future. [56:44] I mean, don't go, New York City is not the future of the Democratic Party. [56:49] North Carolina and Georgia are. [56:51] And so, I think the first thing is to focus on what got you here. [56:58] You know, it started with those governor's races in New Jersey and Virginia [57:03] when they started getting on the accountability message. [57:05] I'm sorry, when they got on the affordability message. [57:08] And remember how that drove Trump crazy at first? [57:11] Like affordability, affordability, what is this word? [57:14] You know, this nonsense. [57:16] You knew that it hit a nerve. [57:18] Just focus on the economic issues for Democrats. [57:23] And man, you know, I'm going to refrain from doing what everybody does [57:28] whenever this happens and talk about realignment. [57:30] But I'm just saying, you know, we talked about it at the top of the podcast. [57:34] You get Texas, you get Arizona, you get California, you get Georgia, you get North Carolina. [57:39] That's going to be really hard for Republicans to overcome anytime soon if you can lock that up. [57:47] So, don't waste this opportunity in the next couple of years. [57:50] And listen to James Carville on House Bill 1, but also listen to his recipe for, you know, [58:00] the first five or ten things that Democrats ought to do. [58:03] And none of them have a goddamn thing to do with culture wars. [58:08] You know, absolutely, Mark. [58:10] And we just finished this Decor poll. [58:13] I think we had something like, I don't know, 2,000 interviews. [58:15] And I can tell you what's popular, okay? [58:19] Raising the minimum wage, giving people opportunity. [58:22] I can tell you what's unpopular. [58:24] Dei, gender non-binary bathrooms or whatever they got. [58:31] It's massively unpopular. [58:33] By the way, it is massively unpopular among Democrats. [58:37] All right? [58:39] I mean, that's a real, real thing. [58:43] And it's not what these people are proposing is silly. [58:49] It is what these people are proposing is massively unpopular and a massive political detriment to all of the other things that people are trying to accomplish. [58:59] James, this is a letter from John from Sealand, California. [59:02] And he's asking about the vote on Pete Hegseth. [59:06] So, why don't you just talk a little bit generally about the Pete Hegseth situation and this vote this week [59:11] and whether or not there'll be another vote with the Democratic Congress. [59:14] Where does this all go? [59:15] And my thought is this, and again, it's better than to say. [59:18] Pete Hegseth has almost decimated the morale of the Flag Office of the Court in the United States military. [59:25] And I would ask one simple question. [59:27] If Smedley Butler was a member of the House of Representatives, would he vote to indict Pete Hegseth? [59:36] He might pass a resolution to hang Pete Hegseth, okay? [59:42] That's what Smedley would do. [59:45] Or summarily execute, and I'm not calling for that. [59:49] I'm making a, for all you literaries out there, I'm using something called poetic justice. [59:55] But yeah, Smedley would be for impeachment, and Smedley would vote for conviction. [1:00:00] That, I'm sure. [1:00:01] What would Smedley do? [1:00:02] You know how these guys walk around, what would Jesus do? [1:00:04] What would Smedley do? [1:00:05] That's the question you've got to ask yourself. [1:00:07] Smedley would not be for Pete Hegseth. [1:00:10] No way. [1:00:11] Well, listen, I mean, let's remember, the guy who filed the impeachment for impeachment was a Republican. [1:00:20] The problem is that there weren't enough Republicans. [1:00:23] And it's a lame duck Congress, and we don't have enough Democrats yet. [1:00:27] But I think, with Smedley leading the charge in January, you may see a very quick impeachment vote from the Democratic Congress. [1:00:35] You've got to have some Republicans. [1:00:37] Yeah. [1:00:39] If that thing gets to the Senate, that's an easy, if I'm a Republican senator, and another thing is the principle of it. [1:00:49] At some point, you do swear to uphold the Constitution of the United States. [1:00:56] At a point, he's now got us in an illegal war. [1:00:59] Well, if that's not impeachable, then what is? [1:01:03] What is? [1:01:05] I mean, just disregarding an act of Congress. [1:01:10] I think it's in the Constitution, even. [1:01:13] It's the most impeachable offense you can imagine. [1:01:16] Now, you know, when President Bush even got a resolution. [1:01:19] Yeah. [1:01:20] Okay. [1:01:22] But as much as I didn't like the war, you know, he did, you know, force a vote and ended Hillary Clinton's presidential chances. [1:01:32] So, you know. [1:01:35] Yeah. [1:01:36] And some of those resolutions on the earlier Iraq incursion had 99 senators voting for. [1:01:44] But the thing that astonishes me about the Hague set and all this impeachment talk is just the extent to which this administration has gotten away with avoiding Congress. [1:01:56] And, you know, to this day, depending on the hour or the time you ask Donald Trump, you still try to say that it's not a war. [1:02:05] Well, if it's not a war, how do we spend $150 billion and have half the United States military, you know, 20 miles from the shores of Iran? [1:02:17] So, to me, it's an impeachable offense that they've gotten away with a major conflict that's cost American taxpayers a lot of money and never had any accountability or endorsement from Congress. [1:02:35] I completely, totally agree. [1:02:37] Look at all the times, you know, that Pete talks about war warriors. [1:02:41] We're in vigorous agreement here. [1:02:45] That's all I can say. [1:02:46] Yes. [1:02:47] But remember, what do you think? [1:02:49] How do you think Smedley would vote on this? [1:02:51] What would Smedley do? [1:02:53] That's going to be our rallying cry. [1:02:55] Yeah. [1:02:56] Yeah. [1:02:57] That's it. [1:02:58] That's it.