James Carville: Trump's Numbers Are Cratering — And Republicans Know It

[0:00] I think the most under-covered story in American politics today is Trump's Republican number. [0:06] It's like, and it's falling, I mean, it's falling quickly. [0:11] I think it's coming in about 80 now in most polls, which is significantly lower than 95. [0:19] And the country, it's so hard after being so obsessed with Trump for so long, for the [0:26] last 10 years, it's just been Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump. [0:29] The country is starting to turn away from him. [0:32] It sure is polling numbers are down, but he's just becoming less relevant in people's minds. [0:38] Hey, James, a big primary day this week on balance, good for the Democrats. [0:45] The Trump Republican narrative that the Democrats are dominated by socialists and communists, [0:51] you got to go to a theme park in Cuba to find a communist, was dealt a blow when the Democratic [0:56] Socialist candidate for governor of Wisconsin was upset by a mainstream moderate. [1:01] That's good for Wisconsin because they can now potentially win the general election and [1:05] good for other Democratic candidates. [1:07] It's going to make it much harder to smear them with a false label. [1:10] But, you know, MAGA already is charging, look, leftists won in other races yesterday. [1:16] Let's just take a look. [1:17] In Connecticut, longtime Democratic Congressman John Larson, 78 years old, was beaten by 47-year-old [1:24] Luke Bronin. [1:25] Bronin is a former mayor of Hartford, a former assistant United States Treasury Secretary who [1:32] served in Afghanistan. [1:34] That race was about age, not ideology. [1:37] In Minnesota, Matt Little won. [1:40] He's a liberal who had the endorsement of the Democratic Farm Labor Party. [1:45] Somehow, whatever the establishment is, I don't think he's anti-establishment. [1:49] APEC poured, the pro-Israeli lobby poured millions into one of the candidates he beat. [1:55] And APEC is really a pro-Netanyahu Republican lobby. [1:59] And I think they could be lethal for most Democrats. [2:02] You don't even want their support. [2:03] And in Minnesota, Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan, the more liberal candidate, won the [2:10] Senate primary. [2:11] I interviewed Flanagan some years ago to be sure she's a liberal. [2:14] She is not a radical socialist. [2:18] These candidates all fall into what I've called the Pelosi progressives, and they're all going [2:22] to win in November. [2:23] The idea that the far left is taking over the Democratic Party is just simply not true. [2:29] Briefly, on the Republican side, Trump's clout may be slipping. [2:33] He endorsed the crazy pillow guy in Minnesota who got clobbered. [2:37] And in South Carolina, Lindsey Graham's sister, who is a creature of Trump, her candidacy is [2:44] a creature of Trump, faces a tough runoff in 12 days, and history suggests she's going [2:49] to have a hard time. [2:50] Well, Al, that was a very good recap. [2:52] I don't have much to add to it. [2:54] To me, the thing that struck me again is the giant polling fail. [2:58] I'm talking about a polling fail, double-digit polling fail in Wisconsin, a double-digit polling [3:04] fail in Michigan, a double-digit polling fail in the New Jersey governor's race. [3:09] I mean, there are two primaries, but you're not supposed to miss by that much. [3:14] And I wonder, I'm texting back and forth with a couple of people, does the left come out [3:22] with all the enthusiasm and then the more centrist voters that they tend to wake up closer to [3:28] the election? [3:29] I don't know. [3:30] But we've had some massive polling fails here. [3:31] I mean, really big. [3:33] Well, I think you're right. [3:34] I think that's what happens. [3:36] I think, just from what I've read, I wasn't in Wisconsin, that closing days when it became [3:42] apparent that, you know, what's her name, Ms. Hahn was going to win, according to the [3:49] polls, I think a number of liberal Democrats said, wait a minute, wait a minute, do we really [3:53] want this? [3:54] Do we really want probably to lose in November? [3:57] And it was a great, she was a wonderful candidate to send a message, but not to send a candidate. [4:04] Without the Thanksgiving quote, she would have won. [4:07] I think to Frank, I think to Thanksgiving, sometimes it's, you know, the strata broke [4:13] the camel's back or whatever, I think the Thanksgiving quote just had legs and it cost [4:24] her a race. [4:25] And her refusal in an interview with Caitlin Collins to revise it, to retract it, to take [4:30] it back. [4:31] I mean, she really more or less stuck with it. [4:35] She probably ran pretty much as to who she was. [4:39] Yeah. [4:40] And she certainly wasn't tempered by any middle-of-the-road political consultant or anything. [4:46] But the other thing is too, she got an awful lot of votes and as did Al-Sayed. [4:53] And there's something that's going on underneath in the Democratic coalition. [4:59] But all we did last night, I think, is dodge a bullet. [5:04] But, you know, you think it's more economic than it is anything else. [5:11] But the gospel stuff is just, is a much bigger problem than we want to own up to. [5:19] Sure. [5:20] Go ahead. [5:21] It's just power exercising raw power. [5:24] And Israel is viewed as exercising power against hopeless people. [5:28] That is a whole other side of the story, for sure. [5:31] But it's among a large number of Democratic voters, it's turned into a big issue. [5:36] James, I don't disagree with you, but I think it also has something to do with candidates put up by the other side. [5:44] Al-Sayed's victory in Michigan was impressive. [5:46] He ran against a really poor candidate. [5:49] And the Wisconsin Democratic Party, you know, we have always said, and I still say Ben Wickler was one of the greatest party chairman ever. [5:57] But the governor, Tony Evers, this is a state that has a lot of really interesting, bright people, but somehow they can't find them when it comes time to run a candidate for senator-governor. [6:09] They should have beaten Ron Johnson last time. [6:12] Instead, they ran a deeply flawed candidate. [6:15] And this time, three candidates dropped out, and they had to pull this guy who won back in in the last couple weeks. [6:23] This is a party that does a great job of organizing, do a great job of taking on Supreme Court races. [6:31] They've got to do a better job of finding candidates. [6:35] Well, yeah, and they didn't have a very good candidate to run against Ron Johnson. [6:41] I mean, we've had a good enough candidate to beat maybe the worst candidate of the cycle. [6:47] I mean, David Crowley was just, his main qualification to a lot of people was, well, he wasn't her. [6:54] That's right. [6:56] But in a state like that, that has that much Democratic talent, we sure don't get it in the game very much. [7:03] And I don't know, maybe the governor just, he's a little bit older, maybe he's just kind of lost interest. [7:10] That would have never happened in Illinois. [7:12] Or it wouldn't have happened in Pennsylvania. [7:16] No. [7:16] I mean, and I think that's an important point. [7:19] And I think Tammy Baldwin is a good candidate. [7:23] I mean, there are exceptions to that. [7:27] But, you know, they came up a while back. [7:30] Yeah, she did. [7:31] But, you know, losing to Ron Johnson again in 2022 after he's been there for 12 years and often made a fool of himself was really inexcusable. [7:40] And having to have a last-minute rescue in this campaign says something, I think, about Tony Evers. [7:48] You're right. [7:49] It just does. [7:52] And for a state that does so many things right, in a Democratic Party that does so many things right, the most important, and this sounds so repetitive and so obvious, but it has to be repeated again. [8:05] In any campaign, the most important entity, well, is the candidate. [8:10] It's not the field operation. [8:11] It's not the ads. [8:12] It's not the talking points. [8:14] It's not rapid response. [8:16] It's not even fundraising. [8:18] It's the candidate. [8:20] And somehow or another, we tend to lose sight of that. [8:25] James, in 1992, do you think the candidate was more important than the campaign manager in that presidential race? [8:31] Well, I had to be honest with myself, you know. [8:37] Yeah, I think Secretariat had more to do with it than Ron Turcotte. [8:41] I could have probably just hung on there and won it anyway. [8:44] But it's always a good idea to remind yourself candidates matter. [8:51] And one of the things I'm most proud about this podcast, and we're going to do it again today, is people just don't understand, and you can understand why they don't, just the talent level that's out there. [9:06] And all we can put up is Haley Stevens. [9:12] Come on, guys. [9:14] We've got to be able to do better than this. [9:15] Yeah. [9:16] You know? [9:16] We are one of the very few places, if not the only place, that is really focusing on house challengers. [9:22] Now, people do know the Senate challengers. [9:24] They know Roy Cooper, and they know even Josh Tarek. [9:27] But the House candidates and the ones we've had on, you're right. [9:31] There is such talent there. [9:33] James, let me focus for a minute on Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan. [9:39] There's a very important column by Tom Friedman in The New York Times on Tuesday, [9:44] urging El-Sayed to articulate a position that is pro-Israel, anti-Netanyahu, pro-Zionist state, pro-separate Palestinian state, and dealing forcefully with the settlers. [9:58] I think that would be the best outlook for the region, and it would certainly be the best outlook politically. [10:05] I have a suspicion that some leftists couldn't do that. [10:09] I think El-Sayed, from what I hear, can. [10:12] And I think he doesn't have to give up any principles. [10:16] I think he just has to do a better job of reaching out and disassociating himself from some of the, whatever they call them, anti, well, they're influencers, and they clearly are anti-Israel influencers. [10:32] But he doesn't have to sacrifice his principles or beliefs to win that race. [10:37] Tom Friedman gave him some awfully good advice the other day. [10:39] I hope he read the column, and he's writing against Mike Rogers, who was once a moderate Republican, who condemned Trump's attempt to overturn the 2020 election, and now has changed. [10:50] Seeking Trump's approval, he suggests the 2020 election may not have been legitimate, a proven falsehood. [10:57] An election denier, James, I think you would agree, is a far greater threat to democracy than someone who wants to ban firecrackers on the 4th of July. [11:06] Yeah, understand what Tom Friedman said is nothing but the Barack and Bill Clinton plan. [11:13] So let's just, that's exactly, anything in the Middle East starts and ends with that. [11:20] Everything that he said is, that's just the context of El-Sayed and today. [11:24] Yeah, yeah, but all El-Sayed has to do, and he can, and it's the only way there's ever going, if there is ever going to be peace there, it is only under those circumstances. [11:35] I guess there's some way you can, somebody can get annihilated, but short of annihilation, there's the only path to having anything like a reasonable peace there. [11:45] Yeah, and he could, and I agree with you, he's uniquely situated to say, we have a roadmap in front of us. [11:54] And this roadmap would be good for the Palestinian people, it would be good for the Israeli people, it would be good for the entire region, it would be good for the world. [12:01] Get on with it. [12:03] Look, he is, I'm sorry, go ahead, James. [12:05] No, no, no, I'm, I'm, he is a, clearly a leftist on policy, but I thought to someone who spent time talking to him on healthcare policy, a guy we both respect, who said he's a very thoughtful guy. [12:18] This is not like those candidates who won house seats in Manhattan and Philadelphia and Denver. [12:25] So, I, look, there's going to be a lot of, a lot of mud thrown at him, but I, I think you're going to find that LCA may be a, a better and more reasonable left-wing candidate than people have supposed. [12:41] You know, we, we, people tend to do something, and maybe sometimes I tend to do this, and it's really offensive, is if we take all these left-wingers and we just, they're all amalgamated the same. [12:52] There's real differences, I'll give you a real difference, somebody on this show that we've long admired and admire more even today is AOC. [13:01] Absolutely. [13:01] I, I mean, AOC is more talented than the rest of the squad put together by a factor of 10, but if you just lump her in with everybody else, Al Saeed is actually way more, way more ability and, and thought than a lot of these just reflexive, uh, [13:25] anti-Israeli, you know, politicians, I mean, he, there, there's something to the guy, and hopefully he and people like AOC can forge a good coalition, at least I'm hopeful. [13:38] You know, I wrote a column this week saying AOC was the most, uh, um, impressive of all of the, uh, of all the left-wingers, but she couldn't win in a swing district or swing state. [13:51] I, I, I'm not totally sure of the latter yet. [13:54] I still think that, but she is one impressive, she now is, and I'm going to say this, she's what I consider one of the Pelosi progressives. [14:02] And Pelosi basically said that this week. [14:04] She said that? [14:05] Yeah. [14:06] Jonathan Martin in Sacramento. [14:08] So this is, this is really, uh, you know, when Nancy Pelosi, uh, is with you, uh, um, um, with you, I think AOC has grown, uh, uh, a great deal. [14:17] So again, without sacrificing any of her principles, James, what are your, um, thoughts, uh, if any, on the South Carolina situation with Lindsey Graham's sister? [14:25] I, um, I talked to some people last night. [14:31] She's got a hard go. [14:33] I mean, in Trump's number, again, most, I think the most undercover story in American politics today is Trump's Republican number. [14:46] It's like, and it's falling, I mean, it's falling quickly. [14:51] It's, I think it's coming in about 80 now in, in most polls, which is significantly lower than 95. [14:59] And the country is so hard after being so obsessed with Trump for so long, for the last 10 years, it's been Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump. [15:10] The country is starting to turn away from him. [15:13] And it shows polling numbers are down, but he's just becoming less relevant in people's minds. [15:19] And I think that applies to Republican primary voters in South Carolina. [15:23] I, I think every day his endorsement loses, uh, uh, 10th of a point's influence. [15:31] Well, it sure did in Minnesota yesterday. [15:33] And I think, I think, uh, August. [15:35] Yeah, he can just feel it. [15:37] He just doesn't dare, you know, even the, the Trump mega people, they're becoming less, less, less, [15:46] less attached. [15:47] Yeah. [15:47] They really are. [15:48] Yeah. [15:49] Okay. [15:50] A big day for, uh, for Democrats, uh, on Tuesday.