Is Trump's MAGA coalition cracking? A report from rural Ohio

[0:04] I'll never let you down, I swear, I promise. [0:08] Four days. [0:09] They're all heading off to vote. [0:11] Yeah. [0:13] 900 miles. [0:24] Red Sox might need a backup catcher. [0:26] One giant question. [0:29] Is Donald Trump's mega coalition cracking? [0:37] Entering Ohio, the Mahoning Valley. [0:40] Gritty, blue collar, union, [0:42] reliably democratic for decades, no more. [0:46] People like this, places like this, [0:48] a part of how Trump has changed America. [0:50] Ohio changed from a competitive purple state [0:54] to a Trump red state because of the magic [0:57] of his coalition here. [0:59] But as we head into the midterms, [1:01] the jobs he promised are not here. [1:03] The revival in American manufacturing he promised [1:06] is not here. [1:07] Chris Anderson is the Mahoning County Democratic Chairman. [1:10] His midterm bet? [1:11] Enough Trump voters will be part of electing Ohio's [1:14] first Democratic governor in 15 years, [1:17] and part of flipping a critical Senate seat [1:19] from red to blue. [1:21] They got conned by a con man. [1:23] You're the Democrats, so you're supposed to say that. [1:24] What do you see that tells you that things are different? [1:28] I mean, drive around Mahoning County. [1:29] For eight years, there were Trump signs on every corner, [1:32] there were flags, you couldn't go to a grocery store [1:34] without seeing those red MAGA hats. [1:38] I challenge you to find one. [1:40] It's true, these are hard to find now. [1:42] Maybe a clue, but hardly enough to answer [1:45] the is MAGA cracking question. [1:47] This is local 1112 United Auto Workers, Lordstown, Ohio. [1:51] Ground zero in the local debate about trusting Trump. [1:55] General Motors made cars here for five decades, [1:57] thousands of good union jobs, [1:59] but the Lordstown plant closed in 2019, [2:02] despite a first-term Trump promise it would stay open. [2:06] Foxconn built this new factory on the GM site, [2:09] but its workforce is non-union, [2:10] and the factory is mostly idle now [2:12] as the company decides what's next. [2:14] Nearby, another new factory sold as Lordstown's New Hope, [2:18] Altium Cells, a joint EV battery venture [2:21] between General Motors and South Korea's LG Electronics. [2:25] How many guys are working in that factory now? [2:27] Right now, all of production is shut down. [2:29] 1,460 of us, I think there were. [2:33] We're all laid off in January 5th, officially. [2:37] And you don't know until when? [2:38] Don't know until when. [2:40] Bob Swager leads the campaign committee at Local 1112. [2:43] Everyone here remembers when Trump told them not to sell their homes, [2:46] and later when he said new jobs would replace the GM jobs. [2:49] The union endorsed Kamala Harris, [2:51] but a big chunk of its voters voted Trump. [2:53] And then the UAW endorsed Trump's tariffs. [2:57] They were hopeful that they were going to bring more jobs [2:59] back to the United States. [3:00] Has that happened? [3:03] Not that I'm aware of. [3:04] Manufacturing employment is up a bit of late, [3:07] but down 80,000 jobs overall since Trump returned to the White House. [3:11] American Auto Manufacturing, down 25,000 jobs in Trump's second term. [3:16] Do you believe in 2026 the Democrats could actually win statewide for the Senate [3:22] and win statewide for governor in Ohio? [3:24] Yes. [3:25] Skenesny served overseas in Kosovo, Iraq, and Afghanistan, [3:31] was drawn to the Tea Party and then Trump after leaving the Army. [3:35] I let myself, I don't want to say get radicalized or anything, [3:39] but I was very right wing. [3:42] Skenesny had a change of heart in 2020, calls himself an independent, [3:45] and is backing Democrats this year because he now views Trump and MAGA [3:49] as dangerous to democracy. [3:51] I've talked to a lot of people whose views are changing, [3:55] even in my own family. [3:56] So I am hopeful that that is starting to fracture. [4:02] Yet Skenesny concedes many Trump supporter friends will not budge. [4:06] And it's a lot harder, it's a lot harder than I thought. [4:12] Most of Ohio is rural, and rural America is Trump country. [4:16] But rural also means you drive a lot. [4:18] High gas prices hurt. [4:20] Farms dot the rolling hills of Albany in southeast Ohio. [4:24] This one is unique. [4:25] The chickens are your supervisors? [4:27] Uh, yeah. [4:30] 400 or so sheep on a hundred grassy acres. [4:34] Lambing season. [4:35] These sheep are pregnant. [4:36] 200 to 250 more little lambs do any day. [4:40] Stay till it. Stay. Stay. [4:44] Bill Krusling doesn't need much diesel or any fertilizer. [4:48] So he's shielded from the Iran War cost spikes hitting many other farmers. [4:52] He does okay, but is saddled by huge medical debts. [4:55] His biggest complaints about Washington are corruption and deficit spending. [4:59] Trump promised to change the health care system, and he hasn't. [5:02] He promised to reduce the debt, and he hasn't. [5:05] Well, it takes time. [5:07] He had four years, but he was new to Washington. [5:10] I don't blame Trump. [5:12] I blame the Congress. [5:14] Where am I riding? [5:15] Right here. [5:16] I'm going to take the dog's seat? [5:17] Yeah. She's coming no matter what. [5:22] Krusling says no politician understands this life. [5:25] And he's mad at both parties for not solving problems. [5:27] But he will vote Republican in November because he's conservative [5:30] and because he loves Trump for the very reason so many people can't stand Trump. [5:35] He seems to like the fights. [5:37] Oh, he loves to fight. He loves to fight. [5:41] And that's great. [5:42] That's why I voted for him. [5:43] This world's got way too many pearl clutchers. [5:46] It's like, come on, people, give me a break. [5:49] Back on the road heading south, Portsmouth is in Scioto County, [5:55] along the Ohio River across from Kentucky. [5:58] Trump won 74% here last time. [6:01] Dale King was already wavering on Trump. [6:03] The Iran War, the last straw. [6:06] King opened this Portsmouth gym 16 years ago [6:09] after returning home from two tours in Iraq. [6:12] It's crazy because that's like 20 years ago. [6:15] His office is full of military mementos and showing it to a visitor stirs emotion. [6:22] Like, it's weird, I don't know, 20 years and then we're dealing with Iran. [6:28] So it's like, what the f**k is, it's just, it's a unique timing thing. [6:41] Guys are trying to navigate their own healing journey. [6:45] And now it's like, okay, it's scratching that scab again. [6:51] King voted for Trump in 2016, again in 2024. [6:55] But he's voting for Democrats in 2026 because he believes the country needs to send Trump a midterm message. [7:01] I am pro-military. [7:03] And I am, I am, we have a strong need to protect this country. [7:09] I know there are threats and I know there are enemies that want to see the downfall of this country. [7:15] But you can't, you can't be flippant about war. [7:21] You can't, you cannot. [7:23] Conversations with friends here and fellow veterans across the country convince him big change is coming. [7:29] The shines kind of coming off the Trump presidency. [7:33] Really kind of see through the true core of who he is versus what he campaigned on. [7:38] John, what other issues besides the war do Democrats think could help them in Ohio? [7:46] Well, Anderson, as you saw at the top of the piece, and here's the map from 2024. [7:49] Look, Donald Trump won 81 of 88 counties, 81 of 88 in Ohio. [7:53] So be skeptical about the Democratic chances. [7:56] But the war in Iran may be taking some people like Dale King away. [8:00] The manufacturing jobs the president promised, there are some, but there's no big renaissance like he promised. [8:04] But you see the 81 of 88, this is the map Democrats think gives them hope, Anderson. [8:08] Half of the counties in Ohio, more than half of them. [8:11] Your costs, the cost of your energy, the cost of your housing, the cost of your groceries, are running ahead of your wages. [8:16] So of the 88 counties, more than half. [8:19] That's what the Democrats think, not just in Ohio, but across the country. [8:22] But the fact that this state is in play after 10 years of being out of play, just that in and of itself tells you this is a very different midterm year.