Inflation is back: US CPI at 3.7% in Oct 2026 — Gold, USD & Fed Reaction

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: All right, good morning, good afternoon, good evening. Let me see first is video, video, audio check. [00:00:30] Speaker 2: All right, sound check, sound check, and an audio check, sound and audio, sound and video check, please. Everybody can see us at least from what they can see. All right, so today, hopefully, we are not going to have any technical issues, but today's session also another session, basically going to U.S. inflation data, because it will basically give us a lot of more information about what the Federal Reserve is going to be doing. And this is one of the most important inflation reports because of what the Federal Reserve did last time. They need to wait. They raised interest rates and then now all the expectations are showing that the Federal Reserve will have to wait for a little bit before they raise rates again. probably at least for the time being, the, um, the FedFund futures are pricing. Um, only 21% chance for a rate hike in October, uh, while pricing at about 84% chance, uh, for rate hike in, uh, for rate hike in December, 40% chance and 68% chance in March next year. So markets are still, uh, pricing in one more rate hike, uh, this year or the beginning of this year. Uh, but today's data might actually change. Uh, change, uh, change, uh, change a lot and change, it might change everything. Um, let's start. [00:02:19] Speaker 1: Uh, okay. Um, I'll come back to all the questions just, uh, uh, for the time being also expectations. [00:02:33] Speaker 2: Uh, the CPI is expected basically to rise by 0.6%. Uh, and that's the month over month data. Uh, the core CPI month over month is also expected to rise by 0.2%. Uh, that's slightly higher than the previous, about 0.3%. Still the core is, uh, in addition to that, the federal reserve will look more, not on the month over month, uh, uh, the year over year data. CPI year over year is expected to rise to 3.6%. Fed rate, expected rate has 3.88%. So they're very near the, and the core is that expected to rise to 5%. This is higher than, uh, to 2.5% higher than the previous, uh, 2.5%. And even as expected, uh, this basically would be, uh, the highest inflation rate since about. Uh, so in general, this is not going to be, um, something that photos are like to see. Um, let me see. Uh, oh, that's weird actually. [00:03:42] Speaker 1: Uh, okay. I'll have a look now. [00:03:44] Speaker 2: Um, so, uh, if the data came in, uh, as expected higher, higher inflation, this is going to put the photo observing kind of, uh, uh, in a position, um, where they might actually have to intervene again, uh, in, uh, in October, uh, one time. And even in December. And this is basically what, uh, most likely is going to change how the photos are, how the market's basically going to price again. Uh, what's going to happen next? Because the past inflation data showed a little bit softer. It wasn't that bad. Uh, the dollar went up still. Um, and today, if the data basically is expected, I think even, even more high plus, this is [00:04:36] Speaker 1: this, but one second, that is super. Um, I'm not sure why this is going this way. [00:05:00] Speaker 2: Anyway, uh, we'll have to, we'll have to keep on. Uh, yeah, that's how it's supposed to be. All right. Uh, going to questions to start with, um, what we have, you think inflation will be higher, lower than something. I mean, if you, it depends first when it comes to CPI in general, CPI would be, um, uh, because it's going to be, uh, it will be with the energy, uh, the energy. Uh, uh, so CPI is definitely going to be higher. The core CPI is the most important thing. In addition to that, we will have to keep an eye on something, the super core, which is the core of the core. Um, and that's the one that, uh, for the time being, the super core is above 3%. Um, and, uh, this is not something the federal reserve would like to see, at least for the time being. Um, at least for the time being, um, but currently, as I said, it's 3.2. I think the super core and anything above that, uh, will put the federal reserve in a position that they will have to. And, uh, in, uh, in return, uh, you will see most likely the dollar, uh, uh, in more and more grounds. Um, that means, uh, the Euro possibilities over, um, uh, gold at the same time. We'll, uh, we'll most probably, I'll say the gold will, will go down a little bit at the beginning of, uh, if the data, uh, is basically higher than expected. Dollar will be a little bit higher first. Um, even silver. I mean, if you look at, uh, what happened over, uh, over the past couple of, uh, over the past couple of weeks in silver. Silver was under pressure. Gold was, despite the fact that inflation is up. But, um, these assets are going down because the, um, the, uh, the dollar is basically, is the one that is pushing, uh, pushing. [00:06:49] Speaker 1: Um, someone knows. Uh, somebody's saying there's somebody else is talking. Nobody's. One second. um one second i'm even listening to myself there's only even all the other ones um i don't i'm unless if you're hearing too um one second is that on instagram or youtube [00:08:05] Speaker ?: is that on instagram or youtube [00:08:05] Speaker 1: i am on youtube i don't hear anybody else but myself all right is there anyone that hears somebody else but me [00:08:42] Speaker ?: yeah not the display it's just my voice me that's the first thing that i uh need to make sure that you guys can hear me not [00:08:51] Speaker 2: not somebody else [00:09:06] Speaker 1: i don't know what happened anyway um we have about uh less than uh what um we have about less than uh less than uh ten minutes uh away but i'm gonna have to go and answer uh some questions so is it higher than expected most [00:09:29] Speaker 2: um we have about less than uh less than 10 minutes uh away but i'm gonna have to go uh uh and answer um some questions so is it higher than expected most likely the cpi the month of our month and the core cpi is month of month the year over here i would say the core even higher it's hard for me to explain it's going to be hard for them to justify [00:09:55] Speaker 1: so uh brenda plus texas over 100 uh over 100 uh 100 bucks um um [00:10:09] Speaker 2: okay buy and sell everyone please uh it's not about buy and sell it's not going to be again this is not red uh black and white uh if the numbers comes in this way it comes but all i can tell you is basically you have to understand basically it's not about just cpi month of month cpn here we have to look at okay all right how do you think the data going to impact gold it depends if the data is actually like very strong gold will benefit from it even if you see some sort of a dip at the beginning just because the dollar is going to go up that doesn't mean that gold is basically training uh uh changing its direction it's basically going to be on the short term um other than that i think gold still even with the recent decline in gold it didn't change its direction uh its direction yet so that's number one uh number two if you look at uh if we look at what we do with it over the past couple of uh couple of months also um we did break multiple uh multiple support areas and uh that's even we're down towards the lowest level since uh since may 2025. but um i think it's due for some sort of a retracement at least for the time being um and maybe today's data will be um uh will be maybe the catalyst so far i mean there is some sort of a move currently in europe but it's not even justified okay just to be clear one more time to ask everybody can i see um hear me loud and clear you can see the screen uh and you can hear me loud and clear that's the most [00:12:05] Speaker 1: important thing for the time being okay uh don't worry if you want to trade in news just look after 15 [00:12:19] Speaker 2: seconds news release and do it with strong stop loss okay um we shall see how how that works um [00:12:31] Speaker 1: all right buddhist pound is also still remains on the upside at least for today [00:12:48] Speaker 2: is the inverse relationship between dxy and gold is still ongoing it's still ongoing because i mean have a look at just compare uh both uh uh both both charts you'll see the inverse correlation gold was going up uh sorry gold was uh going down over the past couple of a couple of weeks and uh on [00:13:08] Speaker 1: the other hand uh sorry hold on one second [00:13:24] Speaker 2: uh uh yeah i mean over the past couple of weeks um the dollar was up across the board and that's what basically pushed uh gold silver copper uh all the uh all the main metals uh all the main metals so uh the um um uh the interest correlation it never changed um it changes in a way that maybe the um uh what is it called um for one point in um in the dollar index doesn't mean that it's going to be equals to ten dollars in gold uh but the inverse correlation still exists uh will you check the chart for mu after the dividend deal and what is the target mu everybody's talking about mu um we did uh gop up today um after yesterday's decline we have about six minutes left uh but here let's have a look um doly end is still trading about 158.50 and that's even despite all the um the interventions by the uh by the fed or between the us and japan still not working this is going to take um much more in order to [00:14:57] Speaker 1: at least it'll get um [00:15:02] Speaker 2: so that's another thing uh let's also have a look dollar swiss nothing much really uh over the past [00:15:08] Speaker 1: uh over the past couple of days the way we are near kind of like a double top here dollar cad also had a very wild ride [00:15:37] Speaker 2: go out again uh we're not for me i'm not gonna be basically jumping on um as soon as the data comes out uh we'll basically just uh look at how [00:15:51] Speaker 1: okay now we're [00:15:58] Speaker 2: yeah uh we have scott besant now uh he's talking about that we'll keep working to ensure fair access to banking banks use the reposition risk policies debank people that's nothing um give a signal we're not going to give any signals today um i'm get basically uh what i will be doing today is to read the news see what um how the market is going to react i'm going to tell you what it means for the federal reserve and what's the expectations next these two two decisions by the federal reserve and then from there i'll let you basically decide where you want to go but in general further um acceleration and inflation across the board means the federal reserve had to raise rates also uh be pushing higher across the board again on the other hand if they did a human soft softer than expected this is going to basically push all the expectations not only for october but also for uh for december lower that's going to push the dollar lower on the other hand have all the other assets um push higher again that includes gold silver platinum even even uh the stock market will be happy with soft dating that's hard to justify i think plus in addition to that you have to um look at the bond yields how the bond market's going to react [00:17:19] Speaker 1: that's one of the most uh that you have to uh we have about three minutes yes attend here all right we have about less than two minutes away [00:18:04] Speaker 2: yeah the 10-year yields is one of the most important um um um parts that you have to watch after the data comes out it's going to be um very important because what the bond market is going to react is going to basically give us a clear direction where the program is next uh next week um currently 10-year yields is down slightly 5 at but at the same time this is might not be um now let's switch just really quick to gold because it's gonna give us also the uh initial reaction and see where that goes 4153 gold for the 10 billion [00:19:06] Speaker 1: and we have less than 30 seconds [00:19:23] Speaker 2: here we go 10 9 8 7 4 3 2 1 all right initial reaction gold is lower now the data is out 3.7 percent when it comes to cpi 2.6 percent the core cpi year over year the data is much higher than expected and this is why dollars going up across the board the core cpi is 2.6 percent and here are basically the data also on uh on the screen for cpi 2.6 percent uh the cpi on the month of our month is 6 0.6 this is all as expected is a basically a higher or inflation this is what explains why the dollar is pushing higher uh 0.6 3.7 percent and now have a look at the 10-year yields how it's basically reacting now 10-year yields is uh pushing even even higher meaning markets are basically pricing in that the federal reserve will have to do even more uh look at the euro look at blue all the other assets every single one of them is basically down you're talking uh the euro british pound dollar and even let's back up so one thing that we will look at super quick is what the uh market price again as we speak um there you go uh so 42 percent now the federal reserve is expect or the market is uh anticipating a 42 chance the federal reserve will have to raise rates this means in this meeting before the data came out this expectation was basically less about 22 20 22 percent this means the dollar will have to price such uh will price in the federal reserve to actually move in uh uh in the next in the next meeting and if you look at again 10-year yields now uh 525 this is why the dollar is up across the board but you have to be very careful the dollar is up is pushing uh pushing um all the uh all the assets lower that includes gold silver platinum copper but this would be on a short term because at the end of the day metals will um uh will rally again at some point but not necessarily today not necessarily next week this is a short term play when it comes to metals it doesn't mean it's changing directions people will always be saying oh well inflation is up gold should be up not necessarily today but in few weeks that's that's the possibility now um again the market's now pricing in 45 chance the federal reserve raise rates 91 chance for [00:22:49] Speaker 1: December the 10 year is now where is it here's the 10 year oh why the one second let me just see why this is let's see why the overlay is stuck [00:23:26] Speaker ?: let's see [00:23:35] Speaker 1: all right well there's always going to be something in these live streaming unfortunately Yeah, I'm good. All right, well, there's another glitch. The overlay is stuck in full. Anyway, let me try to. Here we go. The dollar index is up now the highest level since. Since November, and I'm hoping that this. I'm going to try one more time. If not, it is what it is. We'll do it without anything. All right, well, we're back. Treasury yields also, as I said here, we're adding. Treasury yields also, as I said here, we're adding. Yeah, you know, it's 10 years now, 527. Why is OK? Oh, with the technical glitches. [00:25:53] Speaker ?: Oh, with the technical glitches. [00:25:59] Speaker 1: That keeps on. Oh, with the technical glitches. [00:26:06] Speaker ?: That keeps on. Oh, there we go. Let's hope that works. All right. Gold keeps pushing lower. And again, as I said, this is expected because the dollar is going up. Because markets are pricing in now, the Federal Reserve raising rates in October and in this. [00:26:13] Speaker 1: It doesn't mean that gold is going to keep on going for a long time. It doesn't mean that gold is going to keep on going for a long time. We've seen this before, meaning this is a short-term move before the Federal Reserve is going [00:26:21] Speaker ?: up. [00:26:22] Speaker 1: It doesn't mean that gold is going to keep on going for a long time. [00:26:24] Speaker 2: We've seen this before, meaning this is a short-term move before the Federal Reserve is going to go up. It doesn't mean that gold is going to keep on going for a long time. We've seen this before, meaning this is a short-term move before the Federal Reserve is going to go up. It doesn't mean that gold is going to keep on going for a long time. We've seen this before, meaning this is a short-term move before the upside trend resumes. Okay. [00:26:50] Speaker 1: We're back up. Here's a British found lower. [00:27:01] Speaker 2: Dollar-yen is pushing higher across the board. Two-year yields also now up 10 basis points. So what is the trade? [00:27:11] Speaker 1: A stronger dollar until things changes. And at the same time, if we look at, I want to see where the Supercore and how much was [00:27:32] Speaker 2: it? Okay. Supercore is 3.134. And this is actually also the highest since June or since May. [00:27:48] Speaker 1: That is not something the Federal Reserve would like to see. [00:28:01] Speaker 2: What happened to this game is unexpected, higher than expected, actually, not just as expected. Higher than expected. So what is the first down? [00:28:11] Speaker ?: So what is the next stop? [00:28:11] Speaker 2: The next stop could be 111 from here. [00:28:23] Speaker 1: The next stop could be 111 from here, even if you have gold. Gold near, again, the lowest level since August 26th. This is also another support for gold, at least for the time. [00:28:39] Speaker ?: Gold near, again, the lowest level since August 27th. So what does it mean that they under-projected it? [00:28:52] Speaker 2: It's not under-projected it, I mean, again, it's not a surprise that inflation is higher. It is not a surprise. I mean, go over the past couple of months, where energy, the energy prices were. It's all up, oil trading above $100, but the war is still going, and it's expanding, unfortunately. You don't expect inflation to go down. But now, as I said, after the Fed, or after these data, the dollar will keep on pushing higher across the board. This means it's going to push assets lower, but not necessarily gold and silver for a long time, because this is going to be a short-term play because the dollar is strong. It's not because gold and silver and assets are weak. On the other hand, if we look at futures now, U.S. futures are down across the sessions. Dow Jones may be just a little bit slightly higher, some of those. The rest of the stocks are not going to be happy too much of most of, let's say, pre-market. For example, AMD is down to $530.93. You have CRM is also down. Most of the big names are down. Oracle's down, even after they yesterday was moved. Nvidia is also down. Nvidia is actually down about like $2. Tesla. So stocks is not going to be happy, at least for the time being. But stocks data is still solid. So even with, with the federal reserve raising rates, we're still getting solid data from companies. So Bitcoin also under pressure, BTC, most of the time is under pressure when, during tech and tech. Bitcoin is still trading within the same range now since the beginning of September. Not that big of a deal. Now we're seeing gold even pushing, pushing lower 4,000 now 97. [00:31:08] Speaker 1: Silver is down now 5760. So this is not, this is not supposed to be a surprise. Uh, Nvidia sells a lot of business. [00:31:30] Speaker 2: Uh, to be honest, no surprise. Yeah. I don't think so. It's not a surprise. No, it's definitely not a surprise. It would be surprising to me if the data came in softer than expected. Yes. I would be even kind of questioning. Uh, I would question the data if it was doctored. Because it's kind of almost impossible to say, oh, inflation is going down while, with everything is going on without going into specific details. [00:31:52] Speaker 1: Um, and being down pre-market is not good. [00:32:01] Speaker 2: Here is why AMD used to sell a lot to consumers. Uh, photos. Uh, fair, fair, fair way to put it. [00:32:13] Speaker ?: Yeah. Okay. What else do we have? What else do we have? [00:32:17] Speaker 2: Uh, here's the euro breaking another low. Gold. That's a new low. Silver. So bear in mind again, that markets are now pricing in not just the one rate hike until the end of the, until the end of the year, it's going to be two rate hikes. Um, so far expectations are at least, this is what Bloomberg is showing 47% of the hype in, uh, in October. That's double the expectations before the data. Before the data, it was about just only 22. So how do you look at the market going forward? The dollar is going to stay, um, uh, the dollar is going to stay strong across the board until things changes. Once we start hearing, let's say from the fed or data starts to kind of a change. This is when, uh, things will change. And this is basically the trends. Before that, don't fight the trend. Don't find what the federal reserve is going to do is just keep, uh, keep going with the, the flow that's like in, in, in plain kind of like simple way to put it. Uh, it's going to go to 4,400 again next month. I'm, I would be, no, I think that would be too much, uh, if it moves that way. But in order for it to go to 4,400, uh, it needs a very, um, very big catalyst. Uh, uh, that's for example, if, uh, the economic data from the US started to deteriorate, which is not the, uh, not the, uh, what is it called? Oh, it's not the case. Not now. I mean, data from the US has been solid. Um, in general, the data from the US is good. Earnings is good. Uh, yes, banks are suffering. Uh, we saw Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, city group, um, uh, warning about the tightening cycle, but still the earnings are still good. There's no cracks. It's not showing. Yes. There is a risk when it comes to the debt. Uh, not only that, the debt, the deficit, the, uh, all what the, um, uh, the US president, Donald Trump talks about is, uh, that they will pay back the debt from tariffs and all these kinds of stuff. It doesn't matter much to the market, at least for the time being. Now, what matters the most is that markets are, uh, pricing in another two rate hikes from now until the end of the year. Uh, this is what you're seeing on the screen. This is my view is going. Look at this. I also, even by gold and silver, um, platinum. That's it. Yeah. Because the markets are pricing in what the federal reserve is going to do in two to three minutes, which is no rate hikes. This is going to keep them stronger. Take futures down, uh, to 10. Uh, what is the chances for a hike in October? Now it's 50%. As we speak 50.3 before the data, if you remember, it was about 22. So between the markets yesterday and today, or before the data and after the data, the market's expectations from rate cut has been doubled. So it's not something that you would say, oh, why the market's doing this? [00:36:04] Speaker 1: Expectations has doubled. [00:36:18] Speaker ?: All right. Do we have any more questions? I did not answer. [00:36:25] Speaker 1: Do we have more questions? [00:36:40] Speaker 2: Uh, what is the chance for a rate hike? We said that the future is, so this pushes rate hikes in, are they panicking? Who's panicking? [00:36:52] Speaker 1: Why stocks going down? You mean? What else in the report that you did not cover? [00:37:10] Speaker 2: Um, real average weekly earnings was down 0.1%. And average hourly earnings year over year down 0.7%. That's not bad for it. How do you see Tesla and Nvidia with this news? Um, I mean, if you didn't ride the wave with Tesla and Nvidia and all the tech stocks, you should look at the current move as another, uh, as another dip. [00:37:39] Speaker 1: another dip before the next wave. NVIDIA also 228. All right. What else? Coins I don't [00:38:09] Speaker 2: look into that much coins except most of the time it's just basically Bitcoin, most than the other ones. What is the best time to buy gold today or tomorrow? You don't specify a time to buy gold. It's a long-term investment. You buy and hold and you basically buy, what is it called? You buy gradually. You average your positions, whether if it's physical or even normal. For example, this bar right here, I've had this for now, probably, I don't know, 10 years maybe. But I sold the majority, let's say, when it went to $80. That was maybe not a smart idea. Or I mean, close some of them, not all of it. But physical gold is good. Also, use it on margin for your favor. But you don't basically specify, when do I buy gold? Because if you ask people today, how many of you bought gold this year, you will find more people who bought gold this year than people who bought it last year when it was $2,500. Last year, when you ask people, why not to buy gold? Because it's too expensive. It's $2,000. But this year, when gold went to $5,000, everybody thought, oh, it's not that expensive enough because gold is supposed to go to $6,000. It will go at some point to $6,000. But not when everybody's buying at the same time. Yeah, that's correct. The best time to buy gold is when you can afford to buy gold. Yeah. Which was last year when it was $2,500 or $2,800. Anyway, once again, thanks for everybody who joined us today. We'll try again tomorrow, by the way. We have another, we are supposed to go live tomorrow for the PPI data. And we'll try to also bring in more data on the screen. Today was kind of a failure when it comes to data on the screen. But tomorrow, hopefully, we'll get better. Please provide short for the dollar index with the price. Okay. I mean, I can't do it as right now, but tomorrow, I'll add it to the stream by tomorrow. But so far, if we look at it this year, dollar index, and this is the time change. [00:40:50] Speaker 1: I'll add it to the stream. I'll add a second. For scale to 0.1, there is currently far away from peaking [00:41:04] Speaker 2: still, whether if it's even on the weekly chart or, or on the daily. But the most recent high that you have to keep an eye on is 102.85. That's around badly. Okay. Tomorrow, we have another, we have another stream. Hopefully, it'll be better than, than today. We'll add more, more data. Hopefully, no more glitches also. But it's a learning curve because this is out of the box. All right. We'll see you guys. We'll see you guys tomorrow to cover the PPI data. And again, hopefully the connection, there'll be no glitches. This time is not the connection, by the way. This time, the connection was fine. It was just from, from our system. All right. We had about like 9,000 today. So thank you all for coming and thank you all for staying. Uh, we'll see you once again, uh, once [00:42:22] Speaker 1: again tomorrow. [00:42:46] Speaker ?: Bye.