India Today Debate: Can Thalapathy Vijay Stitch Numbers To Form Government In Tamil Nadu? — TVK News

[0:00] okay let's open this up joining me on this broadcast i've got mr sumansi raman mr rangaraj [0:05] pande and mr nirbal abraham uh all three of these gentlemen through the course of our election [0:11] coverage have been joining me on this broadcast and today i must confess i've carefully hand [0:16] picked each of them to join me on this broadcast why because the three of them the course of my [0:22] election coverage were most skeptical of whether vijay would make an impact or not and so instead [0:26] of having the usual faces who would say wow which has done this which has done that i thought it [0:32] apt to get the analysts who didn't believe vijay would have the impact that he has had and understand [0:37] from them what really has worked for widget mr sumansi raman i'd like to begin with you good [0:43] evening sir what do you make of this mandate obviously it puts a whole lot of responsibility [0:48] on vijay's shoulders but 100 plus mr sumansi raman yeah first of all uh let me congratulate [0:57] you for having got this right you were consistently during the campaign saying that uh vijay was evoking [1:04] a lot of positive response and uh we were wrong in terms of underestimating the kind of impact that [1:11] vijay would have we felt he would get vote share but not any significant number of seats this is [1:18] something that you picked on the ground so congratulations to you uh so that's first part [1:23] the uh second part is uh what really uh worked uh i wish we knew the answer because quite frankly um [1:32] you know very little uh you know of this verdict uh you know from a from a standard political analyst [1:39] perspective makes too much of sense here was a party that is all of two years old led by a movie star [1:48] who hardly campaigned i mean if you can call 10 meetings or nine meetings that he attended hardly [1:55] campaigned and uh you know was quite inaccessible for most of the election campaign and yet people [2:03] chose to for to repose their trust in him is something that uh you know the sociologists and [2:10] others will be studying for at least a few years now but having said that i look at the positives one [2:18] money does not necessarily buy votes so that this election has conclusively proven unless you're doling [2:25] out huge sums of it like perhaps in coimbatore south or whatever but you're the days of thousand and [2:31] thousand five hundred buying you votes are gone second caste equations are not cast in stone for elections and i think [2:40] that these are the two biggest takeaways i also put out a few other things you know political experience [2:46] is optional it is not required talking to the media giving interviews being communicative with the media [2:53] you know with the public through media interactions again it's optional not required so a lot of new [3:01] lessons we don't know how many uh of these are going to stand the test of time but certainly the fact [3:07] the caste has been taken out of the equation largely by vijay this election and money has been taken out [3:14] i think i would see those two as the most welcome uh you know developments in the states i agree and [3:23] you know what i saw on the ground also mr sumansi raman is that you know whatever campaigns that i [3:28] covered the usual people coming in vans and buses being brought they're almost like you know cattle to [3:34] be crowding up an entire rally that wasn't happening at vijay's events it was still happening at dmk [3:39] and ai dmk's events not happening at vijay's events so i just wanted to add that point as well mr [3:44] rangaraj pande the last time i had you on the show sir you you were skeptical about whether vijay would [3:49] be able to get make any inroads in rural pockets 24 hours after the mandate sir what do you think [3:56] because clearly vijay hasn't been limited to one area or two regions he spread across tamirnago without [4:03] any doubt it was a complete surprise uh no doubt at all everyone uh no one predicted that was the [4:11] real case uh according to mr which is victory it was a huge one as you rightly said completely without [4:17] any uh limiting to any particular region it went through west and north and south even the central [4:24] terminal also so uh two things uh we can assure about one people doesn't want uh dmk as well as edmk [4:32] they wanted a change after uh the remedian party both the revenue parties that's the main case we [4:38] saw and as mr raman mentioned uh the strategy and methodology of the campaigning is completely changed [4:47] because it is in digital era now they can the leaders can reach the uh public directly with the [4:53] digital medium so you need not to repeat the same dialogue everywhere once you spoke means it can be [4:59] in history forever because of the digital era and the generation uh the next generation the gen z is [5:06] completely in social media so uh you need not to communicate through the so-called uh conventional [5:13] traditional media and we have seen the same in the cases of uh mr mg ramachandran as well as uh [5:19] miss jayalita they were also not so uh close to um social so close to television media and the press [5:27] they were also completely detached and they had the direct connect with the public when one particular [5:32] leader already reached as mr vijay himself told in madurai uh political parties used to uh start the [5:39] party and reach the houses uh one by one in the case of mr vijay he already reached every household [5:46] then he started the party so the reach uh through the film industry that was a major uh one because [5:53] nobody in tamilnadu will ask who is that vijay so vijay is a well-known familiar and household name [5:59] every individual knows about that all the six crore added um uh citizens of tamil india [6:05] so in tamilnadu so it is a very interesting uh one the only thing is anti-incumency played a major [6:13] role and people doesn't want to go to uh the admk dmk admk because you are seeing that right from [6:20] uh 91 completely it was 91 96 the dmk government dating because every other time they were changing [6:26] the government uh only uh in 2011 and 2016 uh continued their government so now people wanted [6:34] to change uh just to bringing you in on that you know mr pande has spoken about how youngsters [6:43] particularly were very very impressed by what vijay said and especially the social media campaign so [6:49] they were driven by that very often we refer to this as the gentrification of an election in [6:54] tamilnadu and this is a prime example of that there's no doubt that the youth kind of led the [6:58] movement but do you think that this was limited to just youngsters what explains the older age [7:04] groups also choosing to go with a vijay because the constant argument was look the youngsters didn't [7:09] see a jail alita didn't see a kalenir era and that's why they're kind of shifting towards vijay [7:15] for the older age groups they've seen that and yet many of them have chosen to go with vijay what [7:20] explains that to you well i think uh there are multiple factors first of all uh let me congratulate [7:26] you as some of the other panelists did because the only psychologist that got it right was access my [7:31] india the only news anchor that got it right was you in across all of my discussions at least anyway [7:36] uh so as analysts what we look at usually when we come to conclusions is we look at uh historical data [7:43] right historical precedence when i looked at the history as i discussed with you uh the other day [7:48] as well mgr took 25 years general that took nine years this was a history and when i look at recent [7:53] history vijay khan uh who was also a superstar ended up getting just eight percent watch here [7:58] kamil hassan ended up getting just two percent watch it rajani khan because of how because he was [8:03] worried about the watcher did not even attempt to go into politics at the end so it didn't seem uh [8:09] probable that vijay would come up with such a huge uh number that's one but i also think [8:14] anti-incumbency strong anti-incumbency in terms of promises fulfilled because most of the promises [8:20] most of the big promises were left unfulfilled neat for example when during the 2021 campaign [8:26] stalin was constantly talking about meat and finding an alternative to meat or either abolishing meat [8:31] but remained unfulfilled gas subsidies hundred rupee gas subsidies remained unfulfilled he promised that [8:37] patrol prices would be brought down by five rupees only brought down by three rupees diesel would be [8:41] brought down by four rupees zero he did not touch it at all educational loans will be wayward did not [8:47] touch that so there are many many factors uh that led to anti-incumbency and you can add to that the [8:53] controversies the scandals the corruption the the commission scandals all of that so that was second [8:59] and as mr randarajan rightly pointed out when you have such strong anti-incumbency what is your [9:05] option your option b was always a idmk but a idmk as a party was weak because of internal struggles [9:11] itself because of that across the last five or six years or seven years ops left uh shashikala was [9:17] sidelined uh dinagaran was alienated uh sengotian someone who worked for 50 years for that party left [9:24] and joined the tvk so people watching this felt that inconsistency they they did not find a idmk as a [9:31] quality opponent so all those votes also went to uh vijay i think that explains the older folks [9:37] what's the young of what's uh uh definitely went to vijay for multiple reasons as you've already [9:42] explained in your previous shows yeah no i think what's very clear is look the mandate has gone to [9:49] vijay but there are challenges ahead and i want to discuss that also with all of you in just a bit [9:54] i just want to cut across to a news break coming in there were a lot of questions about which seat [9:59] vijay would pick considering he's won both his seats of trichy east as well as perambur we are [10:04] hearing that vijay is going to retain his perambur seat in chennai and give up his trichy east seat [10:10] so he's in all likelihood uh going to resign from that seat very soon in which case it will also call [10:15] for bipolar uh and then we'll have to see really what the mandate is in all likelihood the tvk will [10:20] put up a strong candidate there to replace vijay but that's a quick news break that i also wanted [10:25] to just reflect uh on which seat vijay would pick he's picking perambur is what we're hearing mr [10:30] sumansi raman now going forward the road ahead here's where the real test for vijay kicks off [10:35] look he's proved his mettle as someone who can perform in an election but beyond that the biggest [10:41] test for a politician perhaps is in stitching off alliances ensuring numbers are on your side and [10:45] doing it rather shrewdly at that do you think that this and the next 48 hours perhaps so it's [10:52] crucial to kind of identify whether vijay has it in him in that sense oh actually no because [10:58] clearly neither the dmk nor the aidmk alliance is interested in destabilizing vijay at this stage [11:04] right now they would be more than comfortable allowing him to form a government even if it is [11:09] a minority government with the you know a nudge nudge wink wink that some mlas may be absent from a [11:15] uh uh confidence force so i don't think that the next 48 hours would be no so yeah let me throw [11:22] two scenarios at you sir uh scenario one of tvk and ai admk joining hands in which case numbers are very [11:28] comfortable scenario two of kind of stitching all of these smaller parties vck left uh congress r uml [11:35] all of them and tvk which is a better scenario for vijay to follow look logically from a stability [11:42] perspective ai admk is a much better bet for the simple reason it takes the tally to 150 plus which [11:48] at the end of the day after that you're not really almost 160 so you're not really bothered [11:53] thereafter about uh you know any of the other issues because the aidmk um you know uh basically [12:01] aidmk is about 47 so i i'm sorry i added the pmk and the other so just the aidmk alone is 47 [12:07] so that would take them to 154 so there's no problem after that but the point is that i i don't [12:13] and i can't see the aidmk offering outside support if the aidmk option is what vijay wants [12:19] to go with then he leads them into government and that may not be a bad thing because vijay doesn't [12:25] have administrative experience he doesn't have people who can actually govern or with a track [12:30] record of governance except saying go to him so it may not be a bad idea if he is contemplating the [12:36] aidmk route now the bjp would be quite pleased if vijay sought out the aidmk rather than you know [12:47] try to tinker around with the congress plus bb you know plus cpi plus cpm plus pmk and so on [12:54] because even at best that would go up to 122 123 which would always leave him vulnerable whereas [13:01] this would give the government some kind of stability yes it would be dependent on the wins [13:06] and fancies of the aidmk but as a backup plan should the aiadmk at some stage in the future [13:13] want to pull the plug he would still have the option of going back to the congress and the other [13:17] i mean we don't know how things will play out at that stage but my thinking is vijay can go ahead and [13:25] form a government technically without signing up with anybody else as a minority government i don't see [13:33] why that option we're hearing that in the next two days he could take oath uh without actually [13:39] reaching out to any of the parties for now but he will need that eventually and so he's not holding [13:44] off or delaying the swearing in just based on the support that he'll get but he is going to have to [13:48] get that conversation moving forward in the coming days in the coming weeks mr rangaraj pande for the [13:55] tvk right now what do you think would be the ideal situation going forward considering they've just [14:01] fallen short sir of the majority mark the other question that's constantly being asked is whether [14:06] the congress missed out a golden opportunity right now they're kind of repenting we're hearing that [14:11] there's some conversation of them joining the tvk should they have done this months ago sir instead [14:16] of playing second fiddle to the dmk mr john r k sami who is the address of mr which is smarter than uh [14:24] me uh so he advised him throughout and he got very good numbers in this election also so i think uh better [14:30] than me he can advise them mr vijay but we have to uh see uh two three options here uh so we'd love [14:39] to hear what you have to say yeah we have to understand that minority vote the muslim and christian [14:45] community votes heavily went away from dmk and went to mr vijay so uh he he may have some uh reservations [14:55] going with admk and you know uh he is having very good uh relationship with mr raul gandhi you can [15:02] even call it as a personal report with mr raul gandhi and within the 2.5 years within a two and a half [15:07] years we are going to face a next 2029 parliament election so keeping it in that in mind he may choose [15:14] to go with uh both the communist parties and vck and congress so that will give you a comfortable [15:19] majority but as dr samantha raman rightly mentioned that will be a um could be a trouble uh travel [15:26] also that will look at that could be turbulence also but uh instead of aligning with the admk there may [15:33] something may uh physically go on with the admk uh those who were not happy with mr edapati [15:40] paul nishamish decision they may also try to uh break and they may come what we can see in the [15:46] scenario of uh uh raghav sadha or eknath sinde we can see some different kind of things that also may [15:54] happen uh that that could be a comfortable thing uh without any reservation and hesitation mr uh [16:00] vijay can run the government uh i don't think so then i have to ask mr abraham just to bring you in on [16:06] this i have to ask with this current situation and the mandate that we've seen is this the beginning [16:14] of the end for the dravidian parties for the dmk or ai dmk or do you think that that's you know [16:19] jumping to far to big conclusions right now um i don't think it's the end for both the parties i think [16:27] it's an opportunity to one of the two dravidian parties to capitalize on this whoever goes in the [16:33] right direction from here will remain the major power is what i think as far as joining hands with [16:38] the aidmk i think it's uh dangerous for vijay although yes administratively and in terms of [16:44] governance it might actually help him but uh joining hands with a superpower in politics will always [16:49] backfire joining hands with minor powers although it's still dangerous uh is relatively safe for vijay [16:56] at the moment especially if he's trying to portray himself as a dravidian alternative he should not be [17:01] joining hands with aidmk and also judging from the history of vps we've known all of the people that [17:05] i mentioned previously left because of vps and his and his stand so i don't think uh you know we will [17:11] probably end up seeing a power struggle there as well now for congress vck and cpi i think uh they [17:18] will hopefully remain with vijay because uh if you look at the history of congress they've stayed with [17:22] dmk for what eight or nine probably eight occasions they've never been offered a cabinet seat and [17:27] remember upa government offered cabinet seats at the center for many dmk ministers right raja was [17:33] offered a seat diana demar was offered a seat balu was offered a seat so all of these people were [17:38] offered a seat but congress was never given a cabinet seat in tamil nadu same is the case for vck who [17:43] held them seven or eight times same is the case for cpi who have switched sides but never received a [17:49] cabinet seat so i think if vijay can lure them by offering them a cabinet seat which none of them have ever [17:55] received they will probably remain under control compared to an aidmk who is still in the process of [18:01] recovering from their struggles and trying to be the next big wd in power so i think that'll be a [18:05] mistake the aidmk has a lot at stake here if they go ahead and they're the number three party yes but [18:14] if they join hands with vijay with tvk they're going to seek their pound of flesh there's no way they're [18:19] going to be comfortable sitting back and saying look we'll offer support we have 40 plus seats and so [18:24] they'll say that with those 40 plus seats we deserve a place in the cabinet and the aiadmk obviously will [18:30] then try to control a large part of administration hold some of the powerful portfolios uh and so [18:36] that's something vijay perhaps could be averse to so we'll have to see how really plays out he's got a [18:41] couple of options in front of him and not something that should give him sleepless nights for now because [18:46] right now he's clearly focused on the swearing in ceremony doing that first and then later on in the [18:51] coming days figure out exactly how he's going to cobble up those numbers let's be very clear there [18:56] are 108 while he hasn't reached the majority mark the number two number three parties the dmk [19:01] aiadmk are far behind so there's no question of any sort of uh you know game uh that could change [19:09] things around in tabernado right now and he'll be sure of that but thank you very much gentlemen [19:14] for your time mr sumansi raman mr rangaraj pande and mr abraham for joining us here on [19:19] india today always enjoy having you with us and your insights