I compared Trump to 2015. Something is very wrong

[0:00] I've basically been covering Donald Trump for more than a decade at this point. And when things [0:05] change really slowly over time, you sometimes don't notice that they're changing a lot over [0:12] the long term. So I went back and I watched a bunch of Donald Trump's speeches from 2015 when [0:17] he came down the escalator and said Mexicans are a lot of rapists. I watched from the 2020 campaign, [0:23] the 2024 campaign and recent speeches. And when you watch Trump's speeches over time like this, [0:28] over 11 years back to back, the change is really, really striking. Now, this is not an analysis of [0:37] like, oh, Trump used to be honest, but now he lies or I don't want to do any of that crap or I create [0:43] like a fictional version of 2015 Trump where he was reasonable and he was completely sharp mentally. [0:50] He wasn't, but he was very, very different. And the early Trump seemed almost like he was present [0:57] in the room. Stuff would happen and he would react to it in a normal way. He could tell a story that [1:03] had a beginning, a middle and an end, which he can't do anymore. The insults he would use a decade [1:09] ago, they were cruel, but they were sort of like more creative. He delivered them with more energy. [1:16] The comedic timing was like marginally better. And there was a degree to which, especially looking [1:22] back, I get why people found it both entertaining and also saw him as kind of charismatic in a way [1:31] that might get them to consider voting for him if they fall for all the stuff that he was selling. [1:36] And that gets me to my second point, which is 11 years ago, 10 and a half years ago, 11 years ago, [1:42] Trump was selling something whose appeal I can understand, although I believe he was selling it [1:49] with lies and incorrectly framing himself as the guy who can fix it. So like, for example, [1:54] America is getting ripped off and Americans are getting ripped off and we're getting ripped off [2:00] because these politicians in power are idiots and we need a brilliant outsider who will come in and fix [2:06] it. And then you can see that the audience sort of started to train Trump as Trump trained the [2:14] audience. Trump would go, we're going to build that wall and it would get this big response. And so he [2:18] would sort of get energy from it and say it again. They had lock her up. And eventually he started with [2:25] the fake news and attacking immigrants was working. And what Trump was able to do earlier in his [2:30] political career was figure out which buttons produce applause. And the speeches kind of became [2:38] a collection of pressing all those different buttons. This has kind of always been my view of Trump, [2:44] which is that there is no deeply held political philosophy underneath any of it. [2:49] If being pro war is good, he'll do that. If being anti war is good from the point of view of optics, [2:54] he'll do that. What Trump has always responded to is attention, praise, grievance, whatever benefits [3:01] him personally. So then we get to the 2020 election and the speeches were different. Before 2020, Trump was [3:09] mostly telling supporters, I'm going to make you winners. After the 2020 election, the message changed to [3:17] I'm the victim here. You need to protect me. You need to donate because they stole it from me. [3:24] And every single subject after the 2020 loss kind of led back to what was done to Trump 2016. Trump [3:34] didn't have the I'm the biggest victim. I'm the biggest martyr kind of narrative. There was a little [3:39] bit of like I didn't have to do this. I was living a good life, but not like I'm the most unfairly treated [3:44] person. After he started claiming the 2020 election was stolen from him and prosecutors are [3:50] persecuting me and judges are corrupt and Republicans even aren't necessarily defending me and their [3:57] traitors. He started this whole they're not they are after me, but they're not just after me. They're [4:04] also going after you. And what was really perfect about that is it turned Trump's personal problems [4:11] into personal problems for his audience. So by the time that he got into this whole I am your [4:18] retribution phase as we approach 2024, when I'm going to come back and I'm going to be your [4:24] retribution. I feel like I have something very strange in my tooth. By that point, the movement [4:30] was really organized around. These are his grievances, but we have to avenge those grievances. [4:38] Speaker 1 So now we're at today, 2026, how Trump looks and how Trump sounds today is completely [4:45] different. And over the weekend, I looked through the speeches, 11 years compressed into, you know, [4:50] 30, 40 minutes of clips. He looks swollen more than ever, regularly sweaty and exhausted, [4:58] low energy, low stamina. Seems difficult for him to even stand as long as he used to stand. [5:05] He can't do the more animated performances that would carry him through speeches and rallies before [5:12] the language is really difficult to follow. And here there has been a big change. The stuff he does [5:19] now, he'll tell one story, drift into the teleprompter, but then get distracted, retell an imaginary [5:26] conversation and then confuse a name and the timeline and then eventually land on something unrelated. [5:32] He always had a tendency to that, but it used to be out of being hyperbolic, whereas now it just seems [5:43] like cognitive decline. Now, of course, I'm not diagnosing Trump. People who haven't examined him [5:51] can't necessarily diagnose. There's some things you can you can diagnose or sort of evaluate just by [5:56] looking at video. But what we can all do is compare Trump today with the Trump of 10 years ago. [6:02] And there's been this remarkable decline, even as we've talked about over the last couple of days [6:08] and we'll continue to talk about the bizarre AI generated images that he's constantly posting to [6:14] Truth Social. That fits into this, too, because a lot of those images straight up depict Trump as a [6:21] king, a superhero, the pope, Jesus, whatever. And what seems to happen is that as he has less control [6:29] over reality, the fantasies he sort of has these proverbial wet dreams about become increasingly [6:38] grandiose and outrageous. The early rallies really had some level of humor and what we might call more [6:47] real excitement about the future, about whatever. Today, it's rage, self-pity. I'm the biggest victim [6:55] and this desire for revenge. The beginning of this was Trump promising, I'm going to make all of you [7:02] feel like winners. And now it's all about trying to convince the audience he's never actually lost. [7:11] This is a big change. Our interest in all of this is, of course, getting him out of power, [7:16] getting Republicans out of power in November and understanding this kind of evolution, [7:23] for lack of a better term, so that we are better prepared to deal with what's coming in 2028. [7:30] Do you agree with my analysis, the trajectory that I've kind of outlined? Do you disagree with it? [7:35] Is it correct, but not complete? Send me an email info at David Pakman dot com or leave me a comment. [7:41] summer is better when good food doesn't require planning, and that is why our sponsor, [7:47] wild grain delivers sourdough breads, seasonal pastries and French butter from small independent [7:55] bakeries straight to your door. Everything bakes from frozen in 25 minutes or less. I love wild grains, [8:02] slow churned French butter on sourdough. Rich, lightly salty. It is a great snack. Easy [8:10] We'll be right back. [8:40] We'll be right back.