FINALLY: Trump get news that “SCARES THE SH**” of out him

[0:00] I'm joined now by the former communications director for Barack Obama and co-host of Pod [0:04] Safe America, Dan Pfeiffer. Dan, you wrote something that caught my attention in a pretty [0:08] big way. I'm going to put it right here on the screen. If you're a Republican on the ballot, [0:12] this is the number that should scare the shit out of you. And so what you were referring to [0:16] was the fact that Trump's job approval among non-college white voters in 2018 was nine points [0:24] in the positive in 2020, was eight points in the positive in 2025, was 24 points in the positive. [0:31] Now that number as of July, 2026 is negative eight points, eight points in the negative. So [0:36] we're looking at a 32 point swing from just when Trump was elected two years ago. [0:41] Talk to me about that number and why that number in particular was such [0:44] an important metric for you to comment on. Sure. To give you one other stat with this, [0:48] according to exit polling, Trump won that group of voters by 34 points. [0:52] Like white non-college educated voters, white working class voters are the core of MAGA. They [0:58] are his base. They have been his most loyal voters. They're the ones who have stuck with him through [1:02] two impeachments, an insurrection, mounds of corruption. And it seems like they are beginning [1:08] to sour on him. And that has dramatic effects on what the MAGA coalition looks like, how big it is. [1:14] But what would really worry about Republicans is these are the voters you have to turn out. And if they [1:20] are not going to turn out, if they are not excited about Trump, if they are pissed at Trump, [1:24] if they think they broke our promises, that is bad news for particularly Republicans in places like [1:29] Wisconsin and Michigan, where white non-college educated voters make up a huge swath of the [1:34] population. And Maine as well. I put Maine on that list. And so that's the point I want to dig into [1:38] here because this is Trump's approval rating. So how do you reconcile the correlation between [1:46] Trump's approval rating and the other Republicans who are not named Donald Trump who are going to [1:50] be on the ballot? I mean, do they get any leeway or is Trump's approval rating going to be directly [1:55] correlated with how poorly his own party does? I mean, I suspect if Republicans on the ballot [2:00] cannot outperform Trump's approval rating, which is 32 percent, then they're going to lose in every [2:07] seat in the country, basically. Yes, they will outperform Trump. But the way to think about it is, [2:13] is every point that Trump's approval rating goes down, particularly among this group, [2:19] the white non-college educated voters who make up his base, that is more of an anvil on the [2:26] shoulders of these Republicans. It makes it harder for them to win. They are swimming upstream against [2:31] it. And so an unpopular Trump and a Trump who's like, there's a world in which Trump's, you know, [2:36] is at 37, 38, but the bulk of it is independents, Democrats, some of these 20, these voters who will [2:43] vote in presidential elections and not vote in midterms. This group right here, these are the [2:48] people, these white non-college educated voters are the ones he needs to turn out, and they're [2:51] unhappy with him right now. Well, you know, the irony of this is like you look at one of the most [2:56] criticized moments of Kamala Harris's campaign. It was on The View. She was asked what she would do [3:00] differently than Joe Biden. She refused to break with him on anything. She refused to even put forward [3:05] one single idea that she broke on him with. And so, you know, in effect, Biden's unpopularity became [3:11] her unpopularity because she refused to put any space between them. Now Republicans are falling [3:16] for the exact same phenomenon where, you know, they have refused to serve as a check against him on [3:21] anything except for, you know, John Cornyn and Tom Tillis, both of whom don't have a job after this [3:27] term. But the rest of them have hugged him. They haven't run away from him. And so in a way, even [3:32] after having watched Kamala Harris fall for this exact phenomenon, they're doing the same. They're [3:37] repeating her mistake in this election cycle where his unpopularity is weighing all of them down. [3:43] It's interesting because the dynamics are both similar and different, right, where these Republicans [3:49] on the ballot are dealing with an unpopular president of their own party. Kamala Harris was [3:53] dealing with an unpopular president of their own party. Now, Kamala Harris outran Joe Biden's popularity [3:57] by, you know, 15 points or so. He was in the maybe about 10 to 11 points, I guess. It's probably [4:04] where Biden was at the end. And some of these Republicans will outrun Trump by at least that. [4:10] The reason why they're in a bigger pickle than Harris was is that Biden was there was there was [4:17] not a ton of strong enthusiasm for Biden among Democratic voters. She had a freedom to break [4:22] with him that these Republicans feel like they do not have because the the there are a couple like [4:28] when you look at polls, you can cut these in several ways, right? You can do it by education [4:30] rates. I'm talking about here. Another way to do it is you get the Republican sample and you say, [4:34] do you consider yourself a member of the MAGA movement or not? MAGA voters still love Trump. [4:40] His numbers are in the 80s with them. Now, that group is getting smaller as people are leaving [4:44] that group. But the problem for Republicans is they need those, quote unquote, MAGA voters to turn [4:49] out for them. And if they come if they break with Trump, he will punish them publicly in a way they [4:56] could further diminish turnout against their base. They really are in a situation. I imagine in 2024, [5:01] Kamala Harris could have broken with Biden on some issues like Gaza or the border [5:06] or inflation. And it would not have affected Democratic turnout in any measurable way. [5:10] I think here these Republicans are really weighing what to do. You stick with Trump, [5:15] you pay the price with swing voters and soft Republicans. You break with Trump, [5:20] you pay the price with turnout MAGA voters. And there's no good answer there for them. [5:24] Why now? Why are we seeing this exodus away from MAGA at this point after all of the depraved [5:31] shit that's happened at the hands of this president and this administration? I mean, [5:34] we have seen endless, endless corruption. We saw, you know, obviously the January 6th insurrection, [5:41] the self-dealing. We saw a first term where COVID was handled abominably, where the only [5:48] legislative priority was a tax cut that disproportionately favored millionaires and [5:51] billionaires. He's never been a populist, even though he's claimed he has. But why this moment in [5:55] particular are we finally seeing some people get fed up and leaving the coalition? [5:59] It's prices. Inflation and high prices has been the driving force in American politics for five [6:06] years now. It is why Biden's numbers went down. It's why Trump got a second chance at the presidency. [6:12] And it's why Trump's numbers are going down now. And it's particularly magnified because of the war [6:17] in Iran, which everyone thinks is stupid and wants to be over. It makes Trump look weak and at the mercy [6:23] of events instead of in control of events. And it's forcing gas prices up. And so when prices go up, [6:29] Trump's numbers go down. And that's where we are. So I guess the flip side of that question is [6:34] recognizing that there are fractures for the first time in his coalition. Why is Trump acting this [6:41] way? Why does he continue to engage in a war that's just killing himself and his party? Why does [6:46] he continue to suppress? Well, I mean, I know why he continues to suppress the Epstein files, but [6:51] but the broader point, why does he continue to commit these actions and engage in behaviors that [6:57] is so aggressively unpopular that it's taking people who were diehard MAGA voters and supporters [7:04] for the last decade and driving them away? I think he does not care about the midterms. [7:09] I think he ideally he would like to win the midterms. I think he somewhere deep in his soul dreads [7:15] the investigations that will come. Yeah, but he is unable or unwilling to do the things that would [7:21] at least improve the chances of Republicans. He probably can't get out of this war in any terms [7:28] that work for him. Right. He has no magic levers to pull that will lower prices. I mean, he could [7:35] stop raising them by putting tariffs in place. I mean, couldn't he just end the war tomorrow and pull [7:40] out? Yeah, he would have to suffer, you know, the indignity and embarrassment of a war that America [7:44] isn't winning. But is it any worse than than, you know, the continued pain that he's enduring and [7:50] that the rest of America is enduring by virtue of continuing it? I feel like I'm swimming in Tommy [7:54] Vitor and Ben Rhodes's pool right now. But the I think the challenge for Trump is if America were [8:00] to say we're stopping bombing now, Iran still controls the straight of foremost. Yeah. And as [8:05] long as Iran controls the straight of foremost, something I will note they did not control before [8:09] this. Right. That is going to have that is going to affect oil prices. If we gave up and we stopped [8:15] bombing, would oil futures go down and maybe there'd be some gas relief, price relief? Maybe. But all it [8:21] takes, and this is the product, there's like this asymmetric nature of this war, which is all it takes [8:26] is one missile or drone from Iran to hit a ship or threaten a ship. And that will once again, slow [8:34] traffic to a trickle. He has no real ability absent a massive ground invasion of Iran to [8:40] regain control of the straight in a real way. And so where he's stuck, at least for the time being, [8:46] in a world of oil prices much higher than they were before this war started. Could they could [8:51] down a little bit? Might that help him on the margins? Maybe. But the fundamental dynamics are [8:57] what they are. And they're going to be that way for a while now. But there are domestic priorities, [9:00] too. I mean, him sacrificing the prospect of Todd Blanche becoming his attorney general because he [9:07] wouldn't offer in writing an end to some of these egregiously unpopular policies, like giving [9:14] himself protection from audits for him and his family. This $1.8 billion slush fund that's so corrupt, [9:22] even Republicans aren't willing to stomach it. Like even right now, he's continuing to fight this stuff [9:28] in the courts, won't offer any written confirmation that this fund is actually dead. These are easy [9:33] wins for him to do. And yet even on this stuff, he's not relenting. Yeah, no, he is thoroughly [9:39] self-obsessed and megalomaniacal. Like he can't get out of his own way here. And, you know, all the [9:47] things he's doing, like whether it's, you know, obsessing about the reflecting pool, the arch to Trump [9:55] that he wants to build, the putting his name on the Kennedy Center, the ballroom, all of that stuff, [10:00] each individual thing is, doesn't matter to voters that much. Like they think it's probably stupid. [10:06] They, you know, if there's taxpayer dollars, they don't want to waste it on that. But what they all [10:10] do together is they tell a story about the things that Trump cares about besides helping you, besides [10:16] lowering your prices. These are the things he is doing. The war is the biggest one, but all this other [10:20] dumb stuff that seems like it shouldn't matter. It matters to him because the thing that I tell [10:26] every democratic politician I talk to is the way to think about this is everything's an affordability [10:31] issue. The Epstein files and him fighting about the stupid top-landish thing is an affordability [10:35] issue because that's what Trump's doing when instead of doing something to help you or even talking about [10:41] how much he wants to help you, he's talking about things that you do not care about that affect [10:46] him. It's about him, not you. So the way I've thought about this is the fact that Trump continues [10:51] to engage in this behavior and do these things is really just, you know, there's one part of me [10:56] that's like, oh, he's clearly given up on the midterms. But I think that he's given up on the [11:00] midterms in a different way. He's given up on the midterms in terms of trying to win them on the merits, [11:04] but he hasn't given up on the midterms in terms of trying to just rig the rules of the game in his [11:08] favor. That's why he's expending all of his political capital not on passing the housing, [11:14] signing the housing bill or, you know, dropping this absurd idea of the slush fund or the protection [11:21] from audits, but instead trying to pass the Save America Act. I mean, he was literally willing to [11:25] exploit the corpse of Lindsey Graham and be like, the last thing he said to me on the phone was that [11:29] he wanted the Save America Act passed. So clearly this is a priority for him. [11:33] Do you view this as the same way as he's done trying to win the midterms on the merits, [11:38] but is now throwing all of his weight behind just trying to win them in a different way by rigging the [11:43] rules of the midterms in his favor? It's just hard to know what actual information and data [11:49] Trump has about how bad his political position is. You know, his MAGA PAC has $400 million in the [11:57] bank. There was reports this week they're going to start deploying that money to help Ken Paxton in [12:01] Texas. So there are some things happening on the margins. If Trump can steal the midterms, [12:07] he will steal the midterms. I want to remind you that's a much harder prospect than I think he wants [12:12] people to know. Let's say he signed the Save Act tomorrow, right? Senate, ends the filibuster, [12:18] they pass it, House passes it, goes to Trump, he signs it. One, almost impossible to implement [12:24] before the midterms. Two, and even more important than that, almost certainly hurts Republicans more [12:29] than Democrats because of the people most likely to have a passport or the birth certificate on hand [12:35] are more likely to be Democrats than Republicans. And so he's just, he's kind of just focused on [12:40] himself, casting about, spending most of his time on making monuments to himself and lining his [12:46] pockets and the rest of it's kind of noise. So this is a question kind of going to what you just [12:51] mentioned about the financial advantage that Republicans had. It's a question that I explored [12:55] a little bit with Tommy on Thursday, but you know, we found out that Elon Musk's PAC is going to donate [13:01] between $100 and $120 million. Obviously there's a massive disparity in terms of what the RNC has versus [13:06] what the DNC, I would say has, but doesn't have. Yes, exactly. How are you thinking about the [13:11] financial advantage and the impact that that's going to have? And I asked this question on the [13:16] backdrop of the fact that we're in this cycle right now where Republicans have this financial [13:21] advantage right now. And yet in the off year elections, in the special elections and in polling, [13:30] Democrats have continued to enjoy, you know, uh, uh, nine, 10, 11, 12, 13 point over performance [13:36] from 2024, even amid this backdrop of the financial disparity. So I think there are a couple of things [13:43] going on here. The, and it's worth noting that democratic candidates themselves are massively [13:48] out-raising Republican candidates and candidate dollars go much further than super PAC dollars, [13:55] because at least when you're talking about television ads, TV stations are legally required to [13:59] charge candidates, the lowest available rate, they can gouge living daylights out of super PACs. [14:06] So one television ad from a campaign, you know, like John Ossoff, Rory Cooper, Sherrod Brown, [14:11] Mary Patel are all massively out-raising their Republican opponents. I mean, James, [14:15] James, James, James, James, James, just raising money. Like you can't even imagine. Yeah. And so [14:20] one in terms of dollars, depending on the market, one ad from James Tallarico is going to be worth [14:26] three. They're going to have to basically pay two to three times what Tallarico is paying for ads. [14:32] Now, the fact that Republicans have more money means they're going to be, we are not going to be [14:36] able to force them to make real decisions about where to run. They can probably spend all the money [14:41] they need in Maine, all the money they need in North Carolina. Maybe, maybe they'll spend money in [14:47] church. I don't know, but they're just going to be able to, it's going to be harder to sneak one past [14:50] them. We're not, by being competitive in as many places as we are, Republicans will have the money [14:54] to spend to do that. Like that is a real consequence of the fact that Democratic large donors [15:02] have, are not giving, not just to the DNC, but to the DSCC and the DCCC at the same rate the [15:10] Republican donors are giving to their Republic, the Republican version of those committees. [15:14] All right. I want to end with one last question. I'm not going to ask you to predict anything, [15:18] but I am going to ask for, given this moment, a snapshot in time, would you rather be the [15:26] Democrats or the Republicans in the House and the Senate? I would almost certainly be rather [15:31] be the Democrats. Democrats are incredibly well positioned. The Republicans have a very narrow [15:35] majority. The Trump is very unpopular. We have some very good candidates. And this includes, by the [15:41] way, the Senate, not just the House. And that's how I feel about the House. I'd rather be the Democrats [15:46] and the Republicans for sure. I think we have a, we are very, very well positioned in the, [15:51] in the House. We are better positioned than we had any right to be hopeful for in the Senate, [15:55] but it remains an uphill battle. We need a lot of things to go right for us, right? What, you know, [16:01] Michigan, Iowa, we have to, we basically have to draw an inside straight to do it. We have the [16:05] chance to do it. We have the candidates to do it, but we need, we need a little political luck. [16:08] Right. And Trump seems to be wanting to give that to us. So we'll take it. [16:11] And this is exactly, this is the political environment to do it in. To that end, a good [16:16] way to continue winning this uphill battle in large part is to, is to subscribe for those who [16:22] are watching right now to Dan's newsletter, Message Box. I'm going to put that link right [16:26] here on the screen and also in the post description of this video. It is something that I read on a [16:29] daily basis. Could not recommend any sub stack or newsletter higher than the Message Box. So if [16:34] you're not yet subscribed, please do yourself a favor, subscribe, sign up, and, and I promise you will [16:40] not regret it. Dan, as always, thanks so much for the time. [16:42] Thank you, Brian. Great to talk to you.