Election Edition: The Final Countdown

[0:00] Tens of millions of votes have already been cast. The rest come on Tuesday and then we'll know who [0:06] will control Congress for the last two years of the Trump administration. If you elect a Republican [0:11] House and a Republican senator November 3rd, we will continue to put America first every single [0:17] day. We're going to shock the world when we beat the billionaires and take back Texas. If we're [0:25] willing to vote for change up and down the ballot, then this election might not just mark the moment [0:30] this country began to move in a better direction. This will be the moment when we began leaving [0:35] our worst impulses behind. Welcome to Here's the Scoop election edition. I'm Garrett Haig and this is [0:45] it. The ads, the attacks, the polemics and the posturing all brought us here. We've spent eight [0:52] weeks trying to make sense of these midterms. We've discussed what's on voters' minds from [0:56] affordability to foreign policy to data centers. We've gone deep into factors driving change in the [1:03] biggest battlegrounds and explained the challenges in pulling off free and fair elections in this [1:08] political environment. But now that we've seen the details, it's time to step back and take a 30,000 [1:15] foot view. So today I'm calling in backup. I'm bringing in three of NBC's top political reporters [1:21] with decades of collective experience covering elections. They've been crisscrossing the country [1:26] these last few months and I've wrangled them into the studio today to open their notebooks and share [1:31] their expertise ahead of election night. John Allen is a senior national politics reporter. [1:37] Earlier this cycle, he road tripped along I-80 from New Jersey to Nebraska through a slew of [1:43] battleground districts, gathering insight and leaving a trail of cigar smoke in his wake. [1:48] John. Hi, Garrett. Bridget Bowman is a national politics reporter and is, I'll be honest, [1:53] the brains of this operation. Nobody understands the polling and the data behind elections better than [1:59] she does. She's also keeping a close eye on Senate races in Maine and Texas. And you may have heard [2:04] those races are pretty close. A little bit. Hey, Garrett. Hey. And Ryan Nobles is our chief [2:10] Capitol Hill correspondent. He has a deep understanding of the dynamics on Capitol Hill and is well sourced [2:15] with all the key players. He too has spent much of the last few months on the road from Maine to Ohio [2:21] and places far further afield. Yeah. Ryan. Finally getting those airline miles back up, [2:27] Garrett. That's good. Well, guys, I'm so glad you're here. Thank you all for coming in. And look, [2:32] I mean, we've all covered elections for a long time and sometimes they kind of blend into one another, [2:35] but sometimes there are key moments and key sort of pivot points that kind of define an election. [2:41] And I want to talk to you each about some of those moments. And Ryan, I'll start with you. I mean, [2:45] I know you experienced one in South Texas that kind of like was the light bulb moment for you. [2:49] Yeah. You know, a lot of times when we go out into the field, we go in with a certain set of [2:53] expectations because we've been reading all the polling. We've been hearing all the pundits spin [2:57] us one way or another. But sometimes when you get on the ground, what you're seeing in the polls [3:00] and what the consultants in Washington are telling us don't often match what you're hearing on the [3:05] ground. I had the exact opposite experience in Texas. The one thing that we've been really [3:09] closely tracking is the impact of Latino voters in this election. I think you could make the argument [3:14] that Latino voters are the new swing voters in the United States. There used to be soccer moms [3:19] or national security moms. Now it is the Latino voters. They swung big for Republicans and [3:23] President Trump in 2024. This year, it feels like they're tracking back towards Democrats. [3:28] And that's what the polling's telling us. And that's what I found when I was in Texas. [3:33] We started in Dallas, drove all the way down to the southern border in McAllen. [3:37] And just the palpable, almost anger from Latino voters who thought they were getting something [3:43] from Republicans and President Trump versus the reality of what they're experiencing [3:47] was really noticeable. One of the leaders that we talked to, the president of the Hispanic Business [3:52] Council, Javier Palmeiras, described it as buyer's remorse. [3:55] Two words, buyer's remorse. That's what our community, basically, if you could sum it up [3:59] by that, that phrase right there, they were, they were shocked by the way they felt betrayed. [4:06] And that anger has only built over time, not gotten any better. [4:10] And the other part of it that is really hard to ignore is the impact of that President Trump's [4:14] immigration plan is having specifically on this community. And what was a bit eye-opening to me [4:19] as somebody from the Northeast is how even Latino voters on the southern border were craving for [4:25] a border security plan. They wanted it as much as anyone. And they're happy that the border is [4:31] secure. What they feel is, oh, is that the administration's gone way too far with this [4:35] heavy-handed mass deportation program. It's making it hard for them to do basic things like staff [4:39] a construction outfit, which is a big part of what drives the economy there. So there's a huge [4:46] amount of dissatisfaction. I think that's certainly working towards James Tallarico's favor in Texas. [4:51] But Texas is only one example of this Latino voter movement. I think all along the Southeast [4:56] in house districts in New Mexico, in California, in Arizona, I think you're going to see this play [5:00] out. But it was remarkable to see how closely the polling aligned to what the folks on the ground [5:07] were telling us. John, did you find that same buyer's remorse dynamic on your road trip? [5:10] Yeah, absolutely. The thing that really stood out to me, and you and I have been covering [5:14] Trump rallies and the MAGA base for more than a decade now, right? And the thing that really stuck [5:21] out to me is for the first time, I talked to multiple-time Trump voters, three-time Trump voters [5:26] who were criticizing the president. Usually, you ask them, what do you think about this policy? [5:31] And they go, Trump, Trump, Trump. What do you think about that thing? They did it. Trump, [5:35] Trump, Trump. And this time, people were quick to criticize him. There was one woman actually [5:40] earlier this year, right after the Iran war broke out. I went to Scott Perry's district in [5:45] Pennsylvania, which is a swing district. But Scott Perry's a very MAGA Republican. And I went to a [5:51] very MAGA area and talked to people at a gas station to see what they thought about the Iran war. [5:55] It seemed like a reasonable thing. There was one young lady who had some choice, [5:59] profane words for the president of the United States. But I also found on my more recent road [6:05] trip the same thing, just whether it's tariffs. Farmers are upset about reciprocal tariffs, so [6:12] they're not able to export things as easily as they were before. The cost of diesel has gone up, [6:17] so transporting things is difficult. As we know, everyone is upset about gas prices. So Ryan was [6:22] talking about, you know, on the border, the specific issues with immigration, which I think [6:25] are true with Hispanic voters, whether they're on the border or in other places. I talked to [6:30] Hispanic voters in Hazleton, Pennsylvania, which is where you have a huge Republican Hispanic [6:35] population. And they also were frustrated with the way the president has gone about immigration [6:42] policy. But everyone sees prices. It's the one thing that everybody in the United States, [6:48] regardless of class, race, job, everything you could think of, everyone sees that and everyone's [6:54] upset about it. Not everyone will vote for Democrats because of it, but certainly even the [6:59] president's base is disappointed. Right. I mean, to that end, Bridget, the affordability [7:04] polling numbers tell a very clear story. I mean, it certainly indicates that Republicans [7:07] have basically lost the economic argument. But are you finding that they kind of lost it [7:11] all at once? Was it a slow burn? Like, what does that mean? It was a slow burn. And actually [7:16] talking to sources who are working in House and Senate races asking, like, when did things start [7:20] to turn? One conversation jumped out with a Democratic source of mine who described voter sentiment [7:26] about the president is kind of like a heart rate monitor. And the places where he saw two big [7:30] spikes, the first was actually in 2025 around the Liberation Day Terrace, where voters didn't like [7:35] what they were seeing. And the second spike being the Iran war, because it just had such a visceral [7:40] impact on prices. And remember, the president campaigned on saying, I'm going to bring prices [7:44] down on day one. And voters just were not seeing it. And if you look at our NBC News polling average of the [7:50] president's approval, you see this very steady climb in disapproval starting around Liberation Day, [7:55] April 2025. And it's just been kind of slowly moving, kind of in a slow motion car wreck for Republicans [8:00] in terms of the environment. And the other promise that they feel like he broke. So he said, I'm going to end [8:04] inflation. And he said, I'm not going to start new wars. Yeah. And so the price is being connected to [8:09] basically two broken promises. And actually, that's a voter's word or voters term, not mine. Talk to a guy in [8:14] Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, who just said, stop breaking your promises. If I could say one thing [8:19] to him, I would say, do what you said you were going to do. No forever wars. And tell us what you [8:28] are doing to get us out. Not don't make things up that we want to hear. Tell us exactly what you're [8:35] going to do. Yeah. And we'll talk more about the war later. But I do think it's interesting that, you [8:39] know, as we take this and as we approach Election Day, we really don't know where the floor is yet for [8:43] President Trump. And that could still have a wider impact. One of the issues that I want to make sure [8:47] we talk about that sort of a new issue this cycle is the impact of AI and data centers, which is not [8:52] something I certainly had ever discussed in any of my election travels before this cycle. And it really [8:56] took over, particularly in some specific races. And Ryan, you found that to be true in Ohio, where [9:02] that Senate race at times kind of looks like a single issue race. Yeah, it was kind of bizarre to see [9:09] the backlash that the data centers have just all of a sudden created in this political environment. [9:13] And I spent time outside of Columbus and outside of Cincinnati, which are two hubs for where there's [9:19] just been a data center explosion in Ohio. And I want to focus on Southern Ohio, right along the [9:24] Kentucky border. That is MAGA country that we were in. J.D. Vance's sort of home. Exactly. We were in [9:30] Claremont County, which is about 45 minutes outside of Cincinnati. That's a 75, 25 Trump district. [9:36] And the folks that we were talking to there were so angry, specifically with Republicans, [9:41] because this idyllic rural environment that they had built, that they had invested their lives in, [9:46] they felt was being torn apart by these data centers that were just the size of six, [9:51] seven football fields showing up in their backyard. And, you know, they're angry with politicians [9:56] across the board. I blame John Husted, President Trump, along with our local commissioners. [10:04] They don't care about other people's lives. But it has a unique impact in Ohio because John Husted, [10:09] as Lieutenant Governor, was kind of in charge of the economic development efforts in that state. [10:14] He championed the attraction and the tax breaks that were associated with data centers. Now, [10:19] he wasn't the only politician in Ohio that was doing it. I mean, that was a very quick payday, [10:23] as we've seen in Loudoun County, Virginia, to help a tax base that was struggling. But now the backlash [10:29] is something that came so swiftly that many of these politicians weren't prepared for it. And Sherrod [10:34] Brown's tapped into that. Now, it's not as if Sherrod Brown was this anti-data center warrior. [10:38] Right. Nobody has clean hands. Exactly. Up until about six months ago. [10:42] But it's been an opening. And the thing that I found most interesting about my conversations [10:46] with these Trump voters, particularly in Southern Ohio, was that the data center issue [10:52] almost was an opening to question a lot of other things about Donald Trump that maybe they didn't [10:57] have a very specific or direct connection to. So the one voter I talked to whose farm is being [11:01] uprooted by a data center, they're widening the one lane road in front of her house. They're putting [11:07] in a huge pipeline that's going to destroy this well that they've had on their property for 50 years. [11:14] And she said, you know, they've promised me all these things. Now they're undercutting me by [11:18] destroying my land. It made me think, why are we at war? Why haven't prices come down? [11:24] Yeah. You know, why haven't we released the Epstein files? You know, all these things [11:29] that a Republican voter wouldn't even allow themselves to criticize Donald Trump for. [11:33] The data center issue is an opening to then question everything. [11:36] That's, I wanted to bring you in on this, John, because I feel like there are, there's, [11:39] there's connecting of the dots here, right? It starts with the data centers and affordability, [11:43] and then it kind of connects to this corruption idea. Like, somebody's getting rich off this, [11:47] and it isn't me. Where are you seeing that play out? How do you see those dots all being connected [11:51] on the trail? So it's really interesting. I mean, look, the Democrats would have told you [11:55] in Trump's first term, or literally in any other Republican's term as president, that their buddies [12:01] were getting rich at the expense of the little guy. That's like their message forever. It doesn't [12:05] always get traction, but Donald Trump is giving it traction, right? So there's, I mean, I was shocked. [12:11] I was in Iowa right after I'd had a conversation with Ryan, who told me, [12:15] I think the ballroom stuff is breaking through. And I was like, that's nuts. Americans don't care [12:20] about the ballroom. Who would ever talk about that? And then I was having a conversation with [12:24] this woman, Darcy, who is a Trump voter, and she's going to vote for Ashley Hinton, [12:27] the Republican in the Senate race. But she was very frustrated at the president. And I asked her [12:32] my favorite question of anybody, which is, what would you tell the president if you could tell [12:36] him something? And she said, [12:37] Go live with a senior citizen living on $1,500 a month in social security. See how we have to live. [12:47] And then she went like right into the ballroom. Interesting. [12:50] And I think what the president has done with his sons getting rich, certainly during his presidency, [12:55] his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, having deals all over the world, him building a ballroom at the [13:00] White House, is he's given this sense that while everyone else is struggling, he's using the opportunity to [13:07] enrich himself to better his surroundings. I don't think he looks at the ballroom that way. I mean, [13:12] I actually think he's the rare politician who's like, you only live once and I'm willing to take [13:17] the political hit. I want a ballroom. Yeah. Yeah. Well, and also to like, in his mind, [13:20] beautify Washington. I think Washingtonians don't take all of those things as beautification. But like, [13:24] a good example is they like cleaned up the fountains in Washington. Most politicians would [13:29] never do that because their constituents don't want the money spent on that, as we're seeing. But [13:33] I think the big point here is he's just given so many openings to make the argument that, uh, [13:39] he is basically bilking Americans for himself, including himself. Was it yesterday or recently [13:45] this week? He basically said, we're, we're making money. We're, we're getting rich. [13:49] You know, we, the we is interesting there. Yeah. Like, I think he meant [13:53] the U.S., but it wasn't clear. And I think a lot of people interpreted it. [13:56] If you don't feel like you're getting rich, you're certainly not part of that we. Right. [13:59] Well, and he keeps telling people to believe him and not their lying eyes. Right. [14:02] Not their lying wallets. Right. The same problem Joe Biden had. [14:05] Bridget, I, I, you, we were both obsessed with the Texas races, but I do feel like that is kind [14:09] of ground zero for where the affordability and the kind of corruption and the data center thing, [14:13] like that Venn diagram all overlaps in Texas. The interesting thing on the corruption piece in [14:17] this Texas race and in some other red states with Senate races this year, is you see Democrats [14:22] making this cost and corruption argument saying your costs are up. And there are other people [14:26] like John was saying, getting rich off of it. But interestingly, they're not talking as much [14:30] about president Trump directly. They're tying it to the Republican candidates specifically. [14:34] And that's probably most, um, at play in Texas where a tallery goes on the air with ads saying [14:39] Ken Paxton is the most corrupt politician, uh, that exists. And we do hear from Republican voters. [14:45] We just did a focus group recently with Republican voters who voted for John Cornyn in the primary. [14:50] Um, and we're wondering where they are now. Almost there are five Republicans, one independent, [14:56] all of them described Ken Paxton as corrupt, but almost all of the Republicans were leaning towards [15:00] him anyway, which is just a reminder, like how strong of a forced partisanship is today and how [15:05] polarized we are. So we'll have to see where they, some voters are very openly struggling with this [15:10] thing. He has a lot of skeletons, but they feel like they just can't jump the fence and vote for [15:14] another party at this point. Is there a sense that those people might just stay home? I mean, [15:18] what's the, like, what is the last couple of days of this race look like when it comes to like [15:22] trying to motivate or demotivate those people who could decide the Senate majority? [15:26] Yeah, it's a good question because for Tallarico, it's a math problem, right? There [15:29] just are not enough Democrats in Texas. It's the same in all these other states like Iowa, Alaska, [15:34] Kansas. And so he does need some of them to break and vote with him. And there was one [15:39] voter in our panel who did that. I should say focus groups are just this very small group of people, [15:43] not not representative. Exactly. And there was one Republican there who was leaning towards [15:48] Tallarico. So I think for him, it's making sure that those people definitely show up and also maybe [15:53] just pushing this corruption message further for folks who are on the fence about Paxton, [15:57] just reminding them some of the skeletons that he has in his closet. [16:00] Ryan, I'm going to ask you about your favorite topic when it comes to the midterms, [16:03] and that's Donald Trump. We in our first episode had James Blair on, who runs Maga Inc., [16:09] who was kind of defending the Republican idea that Trump's on the ballot everywhere, [16:13] so they might as well use him. He has tried to make these midterms about himself for better or [16:18] worse in many places. But you've been out in a lot of these House districts. How much are you finding [16:23] that sort of Trump mood music of it all is a dominant factor for voters? And how much are [16:28] these sort of individual issues still poking through in the battlegrounds that will ultimately [16:32] decide? So there's like three or four House races that I'm watching to see how the Republican plays [16:36] it, and then it'll be a thought experiment and a test for the impact that Donald Trump is having [16:41] on this race. Well, one good example is Virginia One. That's Rob Whitman, a long-time incumbent [16:47] Republican, very much more of a George W. Bush Republican than he is a Donald Trump Republican. [16:51] But he's been, you know, votes with Donald Trump most of the time. He certainly is not polarizing of [16:55] Donald Trump. I begged him in an interview to ask if he wanted Donald Trump to come campaign for him, [17:01] and he didn't even want to touch the issue, didn't refuse to say yes or no. But his run of campaign in [17:05] that district with Trump decidedly at an arm's length. Then you go to rural Wisconsin, Derrick [17:11] Van Orden, who's in the fight for his life, two-term Republican incumbent, as MAGA as they come. [17:17] He told me, I am running arm in arm with Donald Trump. If my supporters don't come out, it's because [17:24] I have not run close enough to Donald Trump. And so, you know, Donald Trump is the devil that you [17:30] know in this case, and you cannot ignore him. And so, for someone like Van Orden, he's like, [17:34] I need to fire up his base. I have to beg them to vote, because if they don't vote for me, [17:40] I've got no shot. Where Whitman is hoping that there are enough traditional Republicans... [17:44] Non-MAGA, sure. [17:45] Yeah, non-MAGA Republicans that can get him over the hump that it doesn't also alienate [17:50] independent and Democratic voters. But to Bridget's point, which I think when the dust settles on all of [17:57] this, I think the overwhelming question that we're going to get an answer to is just how polarized is [18:03] this country? Because under any metric, this should be a Democrat tsunami. When you have a president [18:09] whose approval rating is in the 30s, when you have gas that is approaching $5 a gallon, when you have [18:14] all this litany of issues that is pushing against the Republican Party right now, but yet you have [18:19] people in a focus group who are saying, I still don't think I can vote for a Democrat. Even a lot of [18:24] these people that we've talked to that are have soured on Donald Trump, almost it benefits [18:30] Republicans in these midterms because like, well, I'm not voting for Donald Trump. I'm voting for my [18:33] Republican member of Congress and I'm a Republican. So there is a degree of Donald Trump being on the [18:39] ballot that actually kind of boomerangs back to hurt Democrats because you're not voting for Donald [18:44] Trump, right? You're voting for the Republican ideal. But I just think the polarization of the country is [18:49] such a a very kind of fixed issue right now that to Bridget's point in Iowa and Kansas, [18:56] you cannot win with Democratic votes alone if you're Ashley Hinson or if you're Adam Hamilton. [19:02] See, I do think it's different though, depending on where you go. I mean, [19:04] like in Texas or Kansas, where you don't have as much of a history of like split ticket voting [19:09] are different from Iowa, where you do have a huge history of like having a Democratic governor. [19:13] It's been a while though. Yeah, but not so long that people don't remember doing it. And likewise [19:17] in Michigan where like, John, I was so struck that Mike Rogers would not answer a question [19:23] about whether he's a MAGA Republican. What does that tell you is going on in Michigan? [19:27] Well, he needs everybody, right? That he needs the, uh, the traditional Republicans and that he needs [19:33] the Trump Republicans. Does that get you Trump Republicans? It doesn't get you Trump Republicans, [19:37] but, uh, but trying not to alienate them. I think he also is pretty, um, I think he's pretty [19:42] confident that the Trump Republicans, uh, are likely to come out to vote against Abdul El-Sayed. [19:49] Um, you know, and we'll see if that bet pays off for him. You know, who falls into a similar category [19:53] who we really haven't talked about enough is Susan Collins, right? I mean, she's somebody out there [19:57] who's trying very hard. She's not really trying to have it both ways. She's trying to be Susan Collins, [20:01] Republican, not a MAGA Republican, not a traditional Republican. How is she faring? And where else on the [20:06] map do you see sort of Republicans finding candidate qualities, able to like distance themselves in the [20:12] appropriate way from Trump? Yeah. Maine is a really big one. When you ask like, where is the president [20:16] looming large? It's in Maine. Senator Collins is the only Republican as you know, Ryan from covering [20:21] the Capitol. She's the only Republican in a state that Trump lost in 2024. I was just up there for a [20:26] few days to talk to a lot of voters and the number of voters that I encounter. Almost all of them have [20:31] at some point in their lives voted for Susan Collins. Like she is an institution. She's probably [20:35] shaking the hand of every voter at some point. Yes. It's so small. They, people have worked directly with [20:40] her office on things, but you know, folks who have voted for her, especially folks who split their [20:44] tickets in 2020 between Biden and Collins are now saying some of them are now saying I can't vote for [20:50] her again because of the president that I just feel like even though she's tried to distance herself [20:54] on tariffs on the war, that she hasn't done enough to stand up to him. And it's interesting when you [20:59] talk to folks who are supporting the Democrat Troy Jackson, when you ask them why they'll first tell you [21:03] why they're voting against Susan Collins, which is just partly a product of the system where Jackson [21:08] became the, yes, exactly. And so the president is really, really looming large in this race. [21:13] And I would think if I can add on my trip to Maine, the one thing that I found was a breaking point [21:19] for a lot of these independent minded voters in Maine that have supported Collins for a long time [21:24] because they thought that she had the juice to bring back money and programs to Maine. The vote [21:29] for Brett Kavanaugh that subsequently led to the end of Roe v. Wade, that was a marker for them, [21:34] right? Because Collins' argument has always been to them. I'm the lone Republican voice that's [21:38] standing up to Donald Trump. I've cast all these votes that conveniently still allowed something to [21:43] be passed, but I still voted no. The Kavanaugh one is one that sticks out like a sore thumb because [21:49] she was the deciding vote that put Kavanaugh over the hump. And then that ultimately led to the end of [21:54] Roe v. Wade. So that it's one very tangible thing that you can point to that she hasn't had on a record [22:00] in previous rights. Yeah. And it's important for women. Women are going to be so important in this [22:04] race. Senator Collins actually won women by a couple of points in 2020, even as Trump lost them by [22:08] double digits. And I talked to a lot of women voters when I was up there. Some of them did bring up [22:12] Kavanaugh as well. So women's going to be on election night. I'm going to be really curious about the exit [22:17] poll number from women in Maine as a sign of where the race is going. Also part of the reason Democrats [22:21] probably got rid of Graham Plattner. To me, the other more sort of modern issue that I feel like [22:25] is pervasive everywhere. And I said we would come back to this is the Iran war. [22:29] Like, what do you think the likelihood is we're sitting around in December saying like this thing [22:32] was cooked when the war started in February? Hi. I mean, look, I think that we could have said [22:39] around two years ago or like when Trump came in and said the odds are Democrats are going to pick up [22:43] seats in the House and Senate. There's a historical marker for that. But what we saw was the president [22:48] almost entirely on a downward trajectory in terms of approval rating from day one. So you can, [22:53] you know, you can look at all sorts of policies that people didn't like that started out, [22:58] but really that Iran were locked it in. You know, there, I think after that point, [23:02] it was very difficult for him to turn anything around. And, you know, he will tell you that he [23:07] controls the Strait of Hormuz and your gas pump will tell you that that's not true. And, you know, [23:16] so I don't know how he gets out of that. But I think in December, we will look back at that [23:20] and say, this was the moment where, you know, the fate was sealed, uh, in terms of Republicans [23:26] losing significant... I would argue the Iran war is what put the Senate in play. I don't think, [23:32] I mean, when we talked about the Senate map in February, conventional wisdom was Democrats could [23:37] have a good night, but the map is just not favorable to him, to them. There are too many [23:42] Republican held states that they'd have to flip. And now we're talking about a realistic, [23:46] maybe likely outcome that it's either 50-50 or Democrats take the advantage. [23:51] And the Iran war is the tipping point there. That's when things change because that's why [23:55] Iowa and Kansas are in play, right? Because of gas prices and diesel prices, Nebraska. [24:00] Texas probably isn't in play without that. Alaska. [24:03] Well, yeah. It's funny because I feel like a year ago, Strait of Hormuz would have been a great [24:06] Jeopardy answer, right? It's just one of those things that most people didn't really know. [24:10] And now it's like built into the American lingua and sort of understood to be almost like a code [24:16] for talking about gas prices. I mean, including the president, [24:19] perhaps. He seemed very surprised that the Strait of Hormuz was taken, [24:24] which was not a surprise to anybody who had done, you know, defense war games before. [24:27] We've talked a lot about the Senate, but it is the house that, you know, [24:31] all the prognosticators say is most likely to flip. It's a harder thing to wrap your mind around as a [24:35] layperson because most people barely know the name of their member of Congress, let alone those around [24:40] the rest of the country. But fortunately, Ryan knows all the members and he's going to list them. [24:43] So talk a little bit about the house map as, as you see it, Ryan, and like, where do you think [24:52] the majorities are going to be decided? Yeah. So, uh, I think, um, that we're going to see [24:57] democratic gains, uh, basically any seat that's around a plus 10 Trump district, [25:03] I think are legitimately in play. There are some bullish Democrats that put that number at like plus [25:08] 15. So any place that the president carried by 10 or more points or 10 or fewer points is [25:13] theoretically in play is an open, an open seat, which if that were to play out and Bridget probably [25:17] knows this number off the top of her head better than me, but we're probably talking about a plus [25:20] 20, 25 seat majority for Democrats. Right. If we're in that range, it depends. It depends on which [25:26] one you're looking at. So, but you know, there are a few pockets that I think are interesting. Like if, [25:30] so I know I'm, I'm a Virginia reporter at heart, so let it out, forgive you me. But I, I think Virginia is [25:36] going to be the best indicator for us early on in the night for a couple of reasons. First of all, [25:39] their polls close early 7 p.m. They count fairly quickly except in Northern Virginia. Yeah. But [25:43] there are three districts in Virginia that are, are basically three microcosms of what the entire [25:48] house map looks like. You've got Virginia two, which is the, the Norfolk district. That's a perpetual [25:53] swing district. It goes back and forth between Republicans and Democrats, depending on the mood of [25:57] the country. You've got Virginia one, which is the Whitman district that we just talked about. [26:01] That's a district Republicans should keep, but in a bad environment, which they're currently in, [26:05] it's all of a sudden in play. If Whitman goes down, if Shannon Taylor beats him there, [26:10] that's a sign that Democrats can count on the majority. The question will be by how much? [26:14] Virginia five is where John McGuire currently holds that seat. That's a seat that was redistricted a [26:20] while back to favor Republicans centered around Charlottesville. Tom Perriello is running in that [26:25] seat. He held that seat way back during the Obama years. That's a seat that Republicans have no [26:30] business losing, but is competitive in this cycle. If Democrats were to win there, now we're talking [26:36] wave tsunami type night. And based on those three districts, it could give us a pretty good indication [26:41] of where the night is headed going forward. I watched Mike Johnson on one of the Sunday [26:45] shows this past weekend say that all the polls are wrong. Those polls are wrong. They're based on [26:50] faulty analysis. Yeah. And that Republicans are going to hold the house. But this is, [26:54] this is his talking point that all the polls are wrong. So for the sake of argument, let's say all the polls [26:59] are wrong, or let's just imagine we don't have the polls to guide us. What do you see as you're [27:04] looking at the political environment that are the tells of how these races are being viewed by the [27:10] people who are running them at this point? So let me take that and twist it just a little bit. [27:16] Here are the tells that I see, um, that are most important. Every Democrat I've talked to on like [27:23] across the country has told me how eager they are to vote. And we're seeing that in early voting, [27:29] right? Like a lot of the early voting cannibalizes what otherwise would have happened on election day. [27:33] Democrats want to get their ballots out there. Independents want to go out and vote against [27:38] Trump. People that I've spoken to, um, Republicans are critical of Trump, as I was saying before, [27:42] in ways that they haven't been. The, to me, those are the tells right of what, like sort of where [27:47] the wind is shifting in terms of the campaigns themselves. I mean, look, you're seeing desperate [27:51] stuff. Um, Vivek Ramaswamy's ad using Amy Acton's mother, like, and Donald Trump attacking our own [27:58] wonderful colleague, Monica Alba, about, about her asking about that ad, um, told you the same [28:04] thing, which is that Vivek Ramaswamy is losing. Right. That's not an ad you put on the air if [28:08] you think you're winning. No, you're up a couple of points. You don't take somebody, your opponent's [28:12] mother, uh, who, um, was accused of basically enabling her stepfather to sexually assault her, [28:19] and put her in your ad, right? Um, the blowback on that has been incredible. Bridget, we're in the last [28:24] week now, which is sometimes sort of campaign silly season, where you see people start traveling [28:29] to states they haven't been to before or money being spent in unusual places. The president's [28:33] going back to South Carolina. He went to Mississippi. Um, what do you make of states like that coming in [28:40] to play right now? Are they really in play? Or is that kind of a function of like, you can't just [28:44] keep going to the same four states. You can't possibly spend any more money in Ohio and Texas. Like, [28:49] what do you make of that? I think it is a sign that to some extent, Republicans are a little [28:52] worried about some of these places for sure. Um, in a place like Mississippi, we saw outside [28:56] groups from both parties now spending in that Senate race. And I think following the money is [29:01] a really good indicator. Like if Speaker Johnson is saying all the polls are wrong, some of the outside [29:05] groups that are involved are shifting a lot of money to these Trump plus 10, Trump plus 15 districts [29:10] that Ryan was talking about. So that's a clear sign. He may be saying that, but they're, what they're [29:15] seeing in their own data is that these races are in play. So you need to shore up a lot of these, [29:20] a lot of these places as well. What do you think in the short time that we'll have left until all [29:25] the votes are counted on Tuesday night? Are there factors that can still external factors that could [29:30] still shape these races in meaningful ways? Like to the degree you guys have nightmare election [29:34] dreams like I do. What's keeping you up at night in these last couple of days? So I've got a good one [29:39] on this. And I think it's one we haven't really talked about enough. And that is that people don't [29:43] really like Democrats either. And I mean, all the polling tells us that, you know, the Democratic [29:49] brand is hovering somewhere in the low 40s, you know, just slightly better than Donald Trump's [29:55] personal brand. It's not as if voters right now are enthusiastically going to vote for Democrats. [30:01] It feels like they're voting against Donald Trump and against the Republican Party. [30:05] And so as a result of that, if you're an independent or center-right Republican or center-right voter [30:11] and you're sitting there and you're sweating over this vote and you're leading up right to the last [30:16] day, as we talked about before, in some of these states, Democrats need Republicans to vote for [30:20] Democrats. Is it enough to push you over the hump to do that? And I, I think that's a big unknown that [30:27] we, we still can't quantify yet. And then I would extrapolate it out even further. The Democrats are now, [30:32] if they win, going to get keys to at least part of this government. And they're going to have a two-year [30:37] window leading up to the 28 election to improve upon that brand. And now they're going to have [30:41] skin in the game. So it's not as if, even if the Democrats have a monster win on election night, [30:47] that all their problems are behind them. Their problems are really just beginning. Because when [30:51] I talk to voters, like they're mad at everybody. When it comes to data centers, it's not like they, [30:55] they appreciate the efforts that Democrats have made to protect them. They feel like no one is [30:59] protecting them. They're just angry at the system in general. Yeah. And I would just add, [31:03] I keep thinking about the 2022 midterms when Republicans were supposed to have a really good [31:07] night and Democrats ended up doing surprisingly well. And part of the dynamic that Ryan was [31:11] talking about that some voters looked at Republicans that I can't go that far. Um, [31:16] so one number that I'm going to be really watching on election night is the folks who [31:19] somewhat disapprove of president Trump, because in 2022, those voters did something really funky [31:24] where they supported the party. Um, they supported Democrats. And so I typically they would support [31:29] the party out of power. So I'm going to be keeping an eye on that as an early indicator of something [31:34] interesting going on. Is there a specific race where you might be tracking that to see where it shows [31:39] up? Oh, that's a good question. Um, I would say any of the red state Senate races, I think that would [31:46] pick up like folks who are not maybe supporters of President Trump, but not super happy. Are they [31:51] actually breaking with, with Republicans or not? So Texas, Iowa, Kansas, any of those places. [31:56] So we have your watch lists. Virginia man has been very clear about that. John, [32:00] is there someplace that you're watching early in the night that you think will be a bellwether? [32:05] You know, one of the states that I'm going to watch really closely is Iowa. Yeah. Um, [32:08] people there have been hit on, you know, if you live in the cities, you're getting hit by gas and [32:12] grocery prices. If you live on the farm, uh, you're getting hit by the diesel prices, by the tariffs, [32:17] like all of these issues that are hurting Trump are hurting him among Iowans. They all touch [32:22] Iowa in a really strong way. And there are two, uh, Republican held districts that are [32:27] either leans Democrat or toss up right now. They were toss ups when I visited them earlier. [32:30] Yeah, they're not anymore. Well, we just did a whole episode on Iowa for people who are more [32:33] interested in that topic. So they can go back to it. Um, no discussion about the midterms would be [32:38] complete without asking you to extrapolate what you think it will mean for the next election in 2028. [32:43] So we'll end with this. Who do you think has the most of the potential 2028 candidates has the most to [32:49] potentially gain or lose depending on how they or people they are supporting do on election night [32:54] this time around? I would say maybe AOC, uh, Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez, just because there [33:00] are a few progressive tests in this election cycle. It's Abdul El-Sayed, Troy Jackson in Maine. Do you [33:05] see if those, both of those folks lose, does it become tougher for progressives like her to really [33:10] make the case that they are electable? Yeah. Um, and she's also been out on the campaign trail with [33:14] both of them too, raising her profile. Michigan is now an early primary state on the Democratic side. [33:19] Yeah, she's tied herself very closely to El-Sayed of Michigan. [33:21] Yes. Mm-hmm. [33:22] That's interesting. [33:22] I mean, I don't know how you don't start the conversation about 2028 in the midterms and [33:26] not bring up John Ossoff's name. Uh, I think Georgia, I've been making the case for quite a while, [33:31] Georgia is the state for Democrats when it comes to presidential politics. If they win Georgia, [33:36] they win the election. If they don't, the path is very, very difficult. You now have two senators there. [33:41] If John Ossoff were to win, you have two senators there that have won statewide twice in Georgia. [33:46] How do you not begin the conversation of a presidential election if you're a Democrat [33:50] with the two guys that have shown that they can win in Georgia? The question is, [33:54] how big of a margin can Ossoff win by? Yep. [33:56] Warnock barely snuck through in both of his races. Raphael Warnock, who's the other senator there. [34:01] If Ossoff wins by more than five points, which is, you know, the polling shows is possible [34:06] in a state like Georgia, uh, he's got to be at least in the top tier of potential candidates. [34:11] And if he carries Keisha Lance Bottoms across the finish line for governor... [34:14] Are there going to be three potential Georgia candidates? [34:16] But, oh, by the way, what's next door? South Carolina. [34:19] Exactly. Which is the first state. [34:20] So there's the Raphael Warnock argument. But I want to give a different answer, [34:25] which is Gavin Newsom, who touched off the Democratic fight back on redistricting. [34:31] And, uh, if he doesn't take a victory lap on election night, if Democrats win the House, [34:36] he doesn't take a victory lap, um, it's because he's tied up in someone's basement. [34:40] You know what I mean? Like, here's a guy who said, [34:43] I'm going to fight. And the thing that Democrats have wanted is somebody who says, [34:46] I'm going to fight, not left, not right. I'm going to punch. [34:49] Yeah. I'm going to punch right up the middle. [34:51] Yeah. Um, and so, you know, I think he is somebody who very much stands to gain from the ability [34:56] to do that. As a, as a corollary to that, maybe Josh Shapiro, because in Pennsylvania, [35:00] they could, uh, Democrats could... And he's up for reelection. [35:03] We don't talk about him right much. [35:05] He's going to win by a lot in his reelection for governor. [35:09] All right. Well, we're going to have to leave it there, [35:11] but obviously we've got a lot to chew on, a lot to watch on election night. [35:14] Thank you all for your reporting and for taking the time. [35:16] Thanks, Gary. [35:16] Thank you. [35:17] All right. Well, that's going to do it for us at here's a scoop election edition. [35:21] Thank you for joining us these past eight weeks. If you want to go back and dive deeper, [35:26] listen or watch our interviews with folks like Republican operative James Blair about the Trump [35:30] effect or Pennsylvania secretary of state Al Schmidt about the safety of our elections, [35:35] you can find all of our episodes on our YouTube page. Here's the scoop or wherever [35:39] you get your podcasts.