CPI Report Out Today; Latest on Oil Prices

[00:00:00] Nick Valdez: Corweave reports after the bell. Is the AI trade over? And the CPI numbers come out in 14 minutes. [00:00:16] Tabby Pierce: Yes, and oil falls as Trump claims that the war is over. This is pro-trader firepower. [00:00:21] Speaker 3: Every morning, the market opens fire. Chief Market Analyst Gareth Soloway and his team lead the charge, arming you with major headlines that move money and the numbers that tell you exactly where we stand. Live from Clearwater, Florida, this is pro-trader firepower. [00:00:40] Nick Valdez: I'm Nick Valdez. And I'm Tabby Pierce. And we're going to be throwing to Gareth's trade of the day shortly. [00:00:45] Tabby Pierce: Yes, we are. But first, let's look at that pre-market briefing. Awesome. So we're going to start with this NASDAQ here. Man, tech is just sliding after that NVIDIA investigation. It's just crazy stuff going on there that we talked about yesterday. We will get more into that later. But right now, the NASDAQ is down about 0.63%. Let's go over to that gold. And gold right now is right around $4,074.90 an ounce. It is down about 1.6% today. It is pulling back as hawkish Fed hike talk from Waller lifts yields and the dollar. Now, if we go over to silver, silver is about $52.19 an ounce, down about 2.3% today as following gold lowers the dollar firms ahead of today's CPI data, which Gareth will be getting into that as soon as that comes in. Now, let's go over to the oil. As we're saying, we are now at $84.59 a barrel. We are down about 2.6% today. What we're saying, we are sliding as the Middle East peace hopes East supply fears and send Brent to its lowest since August. And now going over to that Bitcoin. Bitcoin is still moving quite a bit. We're at about $74,140. We are down about 1.5% today. Let's look over at that U.S. dollar. We are up about 0.17% firming after Waller's comments, backing a December rate hike. And finally, that 10-year yield is at 4.91%, pressing higher, higher, higher. And that's what we got for today. Yeah. I was looking at some of the [00:02:22] Nick Valdez: polymarket odds as well. And with those Waller comments, we did jump about 4% or 5% for a rate hike in December. So looking at definitely like almost a certainty at this point. [00:02:33] Tabby Pierce: Yeah. Let's head straight over to Gareth for some econ data. [00:02:39] Gareth Soloway: Hey, everybody. So we're waiting on the CPI data, which will be out in basically 10 minutes now. And I wanted to go over the pre-preliminary expectations is obviously this is one of the biggest economic numbers that we get every single month. And what we can see here is CPI year over year is expected to come in about 3.9%. That's a little bit higher than last month. The core year over year also a little bit higher. But this is where things get interesting. If you look at the month over month, and we know oil has started to fall, the month over month numbers, last month 0.6%. This month expected to be half of that. And then last month, the core month over month 0.3% and expected to be 0.2%. So we are seeing a little bit of maybe short term inflation expectations coming in, which would explain the recent rally, the fall in oil and all those other things. A couple of charts here to quickly go over here. We have silver again, as mentioned early on, starting to come back in after a little bit of a move up in the last week or so gold. Same thing. Pulling back just a little bit. The CPI number firming up the dollar and bringing in after the big rally in gold. And then oil as well. And I think Drew is going to cover this. But oil continues to come down after some President Trump comments recently. Lastly, the Nasdaq here real quick. Again, big rally yesterday, kind of some choppy, a little bit weaker today as it sets up. And the S&P future, same thing. A little bit of a little bit of a little bit of a move up in the last week or so. But that CPI data will be out shortly, and I'll have those numbers for you. [00:04:17] Nick Valdez: Gareth, can I ask a quick follow up? What is the difference between just a regular inflation number versus the CPI's inflation number? [00:04:25] Gareth Soloway: Yeah, so that's a great question. And basically what you have is you have multiple views on inflation. You have the PCE data, which is what the favored gauge of the Federal Reserve is. That's taking specific points within the inflation picture, so of goods and services. And then the CPI number is consumer price index. And that means it's the inflation that you and I see when we go to the store and we buy things, right? What's going up in value? There's also a basket of goods there. And then the other inflation number every week is the PPI, which will be out later this week, and that's producer side inflation. So, you know, if you're running a business, what are your input costs? Are they going up? For instance, diesel. Most of us, the diesel price wasn't impacting us massively. But if you're driving an Amazon truck or your Amazon, that diesel price is skyrocketing or has skyrocketed. And that's obviously impacting, you know, the margins of what they're taking to the consumer that's buying those goods in the truck. So different angles here on inflation. But again, it's all about what you and I are feeling and we know people are struggling out there with where inflation's gone. [00:05:31] Nick Valdez: You know, the main thing I care about is magic. The gathering cards, you know, what's the cost for a pack there? [00:05:38] Tabby Pierce: That's expensive. That's an expensive hobby. All right, let's see what drew has for our macro impact. [00:05:43] Speaker 5: Guys, following up on all of that inflation information, you know, who doesn't like to pay more at the pump? Well, every one of us. And we've got good news, at least right now. As you heard earlier, President Trump came out yesterday and announced that effectively the war is over. That is in quotations. We've heard this before on both sides. And matter of fact, I was anticipating an escalation in conflict after the midterms. We'll see if that happens. We're only one week removed from that timeframe. However, right now, those war drums are not being banged as we do have price action coming down, breaking and closing underneath the support level yesterday at $86.90. That opens the door for the next shelf of support down here at $82.21. As I said, that would be fantastic for the inflation, having oil prices to keep on coming down. Speaking of inflation, we have the CPI coming out later this morning. But then in addition, we also have the Fed watch tool has increased their potential for a rate hike up to 90% from last week's 80% number. That's going to occur in December. That's off the back of news of good jobs report, as well as good GDP. So if the CPI is helping the Fed's cause, we likely are going to be locking in a rate hike come this December with oil coming down on the charts. [00:07:00] Nick Valdez: All right, folks. And just to let you all know, the CPI number is coming in in about six minutes. So make sure you stay tuned. [00:07:05] Tabby Pierce: Yes, we will. And Gareth will be right here for it. Now let's go to Lawton for some global intel. [00:07:09] Speaker 6: What's going on, guys? Happy Tuesday. So let's talk about the Asian markets. So first off, we'll start with the Korean stock market. The cost be of about four and a half percent. These falling oil prices have begun to, at least for now, lure in more investors. You can see the cost be having a good rebound, but unfortunately, still not even at Thursday's close levels. The Nikkei had an OK day up slightly. But the biggest news out of the Nikkei is that one of their largest companies, SoftBank, did report earnings. Now, similar to what I did the other day on the on Taiwan Semiconductor, their stock ticker is actually 9984. But all you need to see is this chart. OK, so going into earnings, SoftBank was up 14 percent before releasing earnings. So let me read you some of their earnings. They reported a seven billion dollar net loss from profit year over year. So a year ago, they were profitable. Now they're reporting seven billion dollars in a net loss. But they're blaming high costs. Right. They also had to spend three point seven billion dollars for equipment purchases from the US for data center processes. And they're saying that the costs to finance are also increasing, all leading to today. So SoftBank doesn't really have post market trading. But if you go and check to see how the stock reacts, maybe come back to this tomorrow or tonight when the Japanese stock markets open, you should see some violent movement. But it's just talking about how investors are consistently looking at these large companies saying, well, I understand that this is the future. But is this truly profitable for these companies to continue to spend so much money? And finally, I want to talk a little bit about China. China's flat. Right. The stock stock chart doesn't really say anything. But there's a bunch of news that they're they actually have increased trade activity. Right. Their exports increased thirty five percent year over year. Their imports increased forty one percent year over year. And year to date, their trade surplus is over one trillion dollars. So the Chinese economy going strong. So we'll have to see if that has any implications on the rest of the overall Chinese markets moving forward. [00:09:51] Nick Valdez: A lot. Do people ever question the veracity of those numbers? Because thirty percent increase in a forty percent increase. That is that just feels like that economy is booming. [00:10:01] Speaker 6: I mean, that's certainly what it seems like. And again, these are, you know, state reported numbers. So there is always the possibility of, you know, some adjustments. You just move a decimal point here or there. But I mean, if they're if they're true, those are big numbers. [00:10:21] Nick Valdez: I think the U.S. jobs revisions and CPI revisions, they would say, you know, hold my beer or something. [00:10:28] Tabby Pierce: Yeah, they would. All right. Let's see what Jake has for our options trigger. [00:10:34] Speaker 7: Hello. Good morning, folks. I'm looking at the VIX today and we're continuing to come in. OK, so this is the Wall Street's fear index for the overall stock market. And right now we're sitting at about 20. We're right in the middle of the pack. Now, earlier this week and last week, we're above this twenty three fifty. And as we saw a huge sell off. And then yesterday we had a great bounce. Now, is this bounce going to hold or going to continue to sell today? Well, first, if the CPI print is hot, I do expect this to come up. If it is soft, I do expect the fear index to continue to come in towards normal levels around 13 to 15. All right. For the spiders today. Resistance levels I'm watching for the rest of the week is this. Right now we're sitting at seven fifty three pre market slightly up. But a lot of stocks are down. OK. Now, should we continue to push up? There's a lot of resistance at the seven sixty. Where is the seven sixty on the spiders? That's this pivot top right here. OK. Now, there's I have about thirteen thousand open interests. And when I'm talking about that in the options market, there's about thirteen thousand contracts sitting at that strike. It doesn't just mean that it's bullish, but it just means that this level could act as resistance with the amount of contracts sort of there. Now, if we flip the script, say we do sell and go down for the rest of the week. I'm looking at the seven forty five right here about this level right here, kind of in between the pack, much heavier, more dense. Twenty seven thousand people at this seven forty five strike. OK. Now, what is big money doing? Big money is hedged. They're buying downside protection. That's these levels down here. Wow. While they're buying that downside protection, they are selling retail investors as yesterday. They saw, OK, we're going to try and recover everything that we sold off last Thursday. Big money was selling those calls to those retail investors. All right. So those are the key levels that I'm watching. And we'll see once the CPI print lands which way we go for the rest of today's trading day. [00:12:48] Tabby Pierce: Yes, yes, we are all looking for that CPI print. And if you didn't know, we actually have an app, the verified investing app that you can download. There's a link below a QR code and you can get all of our amazing shows just from that app. You can see our trading setups and there's so many products of ours that you can see that you can purchase. Or we have free stuff in there, too, that we show you. It's really cool stuff. All right. So let's now turn it over to Nick. There's already some movement in Bitcoin because of the anticipation of the CPI. So let's go to Nick for our crypto radar. [00:13:16] Nick Valdez: All right, folks, we are about 20 seconds away, 20 seconds away from the CPI print. So I'm going to keep it on the Bitcoin one minute chart while we kind of break down what's happening in the sector. Now, there was major news for Avalanche blockchain, AVAX. That's right. It's an oldie. Maybe now a goodie as well. They just teamed up with the New York Stock Exchange to tokenize stocks. This is a major, major partnership. New York Stock Exchange is a major, major broker. And three seconds ago. All right. You can already see major, major movement on the Bitcoin one minute chart. Oh, my gosh. You know, Jake said there's a few more people pricing in a sell versus a buy on, I believe it was the S&P 500. So not a big surprise seeing what we're seeing right now. So Bitcoin going a little crazy right now, folks. But that is to be expected when you get these major, major numbers. Hold on. We got to shrink the Y axis. This thing is falling off the TV. I see it on the ground. It was the candles on the carpet. All right. Well, let's go to the daily, folks. Now, Bitcoin, we do have some levels that I want to talk about here. Oh, my God. We lost 75K. But there's also this descending trend line that's about to get hit right now. All right. Let's keep zooming, zooming in here. All right. So it looks really good on the daily as well as the four hour. We have a nice little wick here, another wick there. And then we wicked there two days ago. Let's go to the one hour. Oh, folks, we are close. We are really, really close to testing this level right here. Now, if Bitcoin were to come down this low, we're looking at a $73,200 level. But you can already see major, major movement on the Bitcoin chart. So, folks, we're going to be throwing it to Gareth in a little bit. I'm sure he has a breakdown. I also have AVAX. I do want to throw up the chart on this one. Big news of the New York Stock Exchange. You can see he had a nice green candle yesterday. But now pulling back, matching this November 8th low. One thing I like about this level, from wick to two wicks here, got a slightly descending trend line, giving a little bit of extra support. Now, if we do continue to bounce, maybe not after that CPI number, 50% retrace is right near this psychological level of $10. You can also see it was acting out support right there. Let's go back to the one minute real quick. All right, it looks like maybe things are taking a little bit of a breather. Things are starting to calm down on the Bitcoin chart. But, yeah, major, major movement. Folks, everybody smash that like button to make Bitcoin go up $1. I don't know how it works, it just does. So, go ahead. [00:15:39] Tabby Pierce: I love that. I love it. You heard it here first on Verified Investing. And you can catch Nick again at Bitcoin Revealed, the true story every day, 1:30 PM, right here at Verified Investing. Be sure to check that out and see all the other crazy crypto stuff. Now, we're going to go back to Drew and see what Drew has for his trade of the day. [00:16:00] Speaker 5: All right, folks. Now, my trade of the day is more of a swing trade setup. It's on a stock that just reported earnings this morning. And I'm talking about QBTS. You can see what QBTS has been doing ever since June. That's going down on the chart. It really accelerated over this last couple of weeks, where we had price action literally collapse from the $18 mark down here, now trading at $10 pre-market, where we are coming down. But if you see the last two trading days, we got up above this longer-term declining trend line. We did so, and we confirmed the breakout. So that makes QBTS as a near-term breakout candidate, as long as price holds above $9.70. That's going to be the area right here at the bottom of this declining trend line. And why this level in this setup is so important, we've actually got the sleeper hold pattern, one of the courses that I teach right here involved on the weekly timeframe. Now we've already got a 10% pop on that sleeper hold pattern that concluded at the end of trading on Friday of last week. Just Monday's move over 10%. So you could have banked 10% having seen that signal. So now the real test comes for QBTS. Can it maintain this breakout, especially with the markets coming in today? $9.70 is that level to watch. [00:17:14] Nick Valdez: All right. Very, very key level there. Very key level. [00:17:17] Tabby Pierce: Love that. Love his sleeper hold as well. All right. Let's now see what Lawton has for his trade of the day. [00:17:25] Speaker 6: Hey guys. So I'm watching AMD. You can see on my chart, I have kind of a two factor trade going on. I have all the support in and around this area and a nice upsloping trend line. Now this was looking a lot better before that CPI data drop causing the stock to basically fall about 10 bucks. But if we could somehow get a reversal push up closer above 500, closer to that 540 level, that's where I'd be likely looking to potentially short AMD today. [00:17:57] Nick Valdez: Lawton, could we just look at the one minute chart? Would it be possible? Just to zoom in just a little here. [00:18:02] Speaker 6: Absolutely. Let me take to the one minute. So this doesn't look like a whole lot, but if I, oh, looks like I lost it. But if you, if you look at the one minute chart, you'll see crazy movement. [00:18:13] Nick Valdez: You know, sometimes that one minute chart gets so volatile, you just got to take a day off and go fishing. Yes, that's what it told you. You got to sit at the dock at the bay. [00:18:21] Tabby Pierce: I love that. All right, let's hop over to Jake, see what Jake is trading for the day. [00:18:28] Speaker 7: What's up guys? I'm like a lot of good earnings this week. And one of the biggest stories core we've over the past month, are they going to deliver today? Are they going to show a good backlog or not? Right now, after that print landed, they are starting to trend down. Now they report tonight after the bell. So now what is the market forecasting? Kind of like a weather. It's predicting how much it's going to move. Now, this is a rough prediction at 8:00 AM. I would have a much clearer read on the market after today's price action, closer to market close. For now, to give you guys some key alpha, if you want to trade these levels, yesterday we closed at $48.98. Right now, the options market is pricing in about an 18% to 19% move either way. It does not say direction. It's just saying, how much is it going to move? Now, if we take that 18% to 20% either way from these levels to the upside resistance, I'm looking at about $57.59. Okay? That's about $8 to $9 up. If we're going to the downside, where we're already trending right now, I'm looking at this low pivot right here at $40.83. If we break below this low pivot, we're not going to have much support for core weave. We're going to continue to go down as we're going to go all the way back to support that we had in April of 2025. All right? Now, if we go below this, the last support level that we have down here is at $33.45. If we break that, we're going to just continue to go to price discovery to the downside for core weave. [00:20:10] Nick Valdez: I love seeing the options data where they give you that window. Big money's betting on an $8 move. They won't tell you what direction, but, you know, nice little levels there. [00:20:17] Tabby Pierce: That's what they love doing, all that open interest. All right, let's go over to Gareth now, see what Gareth's trade of the day, and if we got that CPI info in. [00:20:24] Gareth Soloway: Yes, guys, the CPI data came in, and again, you don't even need to see the numbers. When you see the reaction, whether it was Bitcoin or anything else in the market, you know the numbers were not good. So take a look. We're just going to focus on month over month, and I'll explain why. But month over month here, coming in one-tenth hotter than expected at 0.4%. We also have the core, even the core when you strip out food and energy, coming in one-tenth hotter than expected. And this was, this number, remember when I showed you earlier on, the yearly numbers were expected to go up. So that was kind of like, okay, we know inflation's been higher over the last, let's say, month, two months, six months, etc. But we were holding on to this hope that the inflation numbers would start coming down month over month. And guess what? They didn't. And that's the issue here. And so the market is now reeling. What this is going to do is essentially ice it that the Fed will be hiking in December, only about a month away from that meeting. And now the question that the market's going to have to deal with is, will we be seeing more hikes after December if inflation doesn't start to moderate? So this is a pretty big deal. Now, if we flip over to the charts here, bear with me as I'm trying to get that there. And again, if we do this here, hopefully we can just X that out there. That's fine as well. If we take a look, couple charts that I'm going to be watching. Now we're looking at SanDisk, which had a fantastic bounce yesterday, but right away, look, we're back to $851. There's this huge level right here that I've been watching that technically we haven't hit just yet. And so if we can flush down basically below 800 here, I am going to start nibbling. Now, yesterday we were in this trade from Friday. I picked it up with swing trade members and smart money stocks and ETFs. We unloaded it yesterday smartly as it turns out. And then ultimately now I will be looking to rebuy about $50 lower right from there. Last one I'll give you is this one Cisco systems, high quality name, part of the kind of the fiber optic build out of the AI trade. Again, has had an amazing move to trend lines converging right around this $90 level. I'm watching that as well. So listen, folks, we wanted more action. Well, we're getting it today. That CPI print is going to freak a lot of people out. For me and my trading team, we see opportunity. What can we swing trade? What can we day trade? And that's what we'll be doing here at verifiedinvesting.com. Back to you guys. [00:22:59] Nick Valdez: Gareth, if it's not too much, could we look at the one minute chart on gold? Because, you know, Bitcoin had a lot of movement and, you know, you're Mr. Metals over here. So I was wondering if you could share a chart with us here. [00:23:11] Gareth Soloway: Yeah, absolutely. So here you have it right here, guys. And again, look at the draw down here. We went from basically $4,075 down to $4,040 on gold. And we could just flip even to silver and flip over to the one minute as well. And you can see the drop right there, the S&P futures. And again, look at the drop there. That's the 10 minute candle. But we flip over to the one minute. Look at that drop to the downside. And again, folks, what happens here is you have algorithms that read these numbers immediately before you and I can even act. And again, while we're just reaching our finger to our mouse to click it, the algorithms are already taking over. They're reading the headlines. And again, ultimately, sometimes they get the advantage on other times. And this is the interesting part. On earnings reports, sometimes the initial move is the wrong move. And you'll see it spike in one direction. Like, in fact, if you look here at the S&P futures, initially it traded here probably on the headline numbers, the year-over-year numbers, which were more in line. But it was all about the month-over-month numbers. And then we come crashing down on those. We'll see where the market goes today. Yes, I think it's just still pushing lower. [00:24:18] Nick Valdez: Yes, it is. [00:24:19] Tabby Pierce: This is a very exciting day here at Verified Investing. Stay tuned to see what other shows we have throughout the day. And you can keep following us. Thanks for joining us. [00:24:26] Speaker 3: That's it for today's Pro Trader Firepower. Stay with us for more economic insights to power your day. Gareth's trading game plan goes live at 9:00 a.m. and will give you his insights into the news and events that can impact your trading decisions. At 9:30, the Apex Live Day Trading Room takes the market head-on with real-time live trading action from Gareth and the Verified Pro Trading Team. Jake and Tabby will help you boost your confidence in options trading at 1:00 p.m. with the options conversion secret. Nick's Bitcoin Revealed is a must for you crypto traders as he breaks down the events moving the Bitcoin world and what it all means. Tune into that at 1:30. And Drew's Trading the Close goes live at 4:20, recapping the day's biggest winners and losers and what you need to watch as we head into the next day's open.