Carney says Canada won’t meet 2030, 2035 climate targets with current policies — Power & Politics

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Prime Minister Mark Carney says Canada will not meet its emission goals with its current climate policy. Speaking to Radio-Canada's Patrice Waugh in French today, Carney said his government is making a big change to a pragmatic climate policy based on competitiveness and affordability. [00:00:18] Speaker 2: You're saying this is the time to produce. [00:00:22] Speaker 1: No, that's not exactly right. [00:00:23] Speaker 2: It is time to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. And we must invest. [00:00:30] Speaker 1: We must invest in order to meet those goals. [00:00:35] Speaker 2: We have a policy and regulations and restrictions, but there hasn't been enough action. So it is clear that Canada will not meet its climate goals for 2030 or 2035 under the current policy. So we have to change that policy and we are in the process of doing that with major investments. Major investments in carbon capture, major investments in Quebec with the Quebec government. So major investments in hydroelectric energy, major investments in nuclear energy and much more than that. So that's a big change, a major policy change. [00:01:24] Speaker 1: But it is a pragmatic policy based on business competitiveness and affordability for all Canadians. The Liberals announced new changes to methane regulations today, which will give some oil and gas companies more flexibility in how they reduce those emissions. And Carney has promised a tighter industrial carbon tax, but he's also removed the consumer carbon tax. He's paused the electric vehicle mandate and he's signaled he's cancelling the oil and gas emissions cap. So how can this become a path to meeting Canada's 2030 and 2035 targets? Julie DeBruzan is the Minister of the Environment and Climate Change and she joins me now. Minister, it's good to see you. Thank you for being here. Thank you for having me. I'd like to start with that clip we heard there from the Prime Minister. Still committed, your government says, to 2030 and 2035 climate goals, but as the Prime Minister suggests there, it sounds unlikely that Canada will meet them. Where does that leave the country? How do they get there? [00:02:24] Julie DeBruzan: Well, I think as you heard in that clip, what the Prime Minister has been saying, and it's something that we've been saying and I've been saying quite a long time, we always knew that these targets were ambitious and that it was going to be a stretch to reach them. And when we're looking at where we're at right now, it's clear that we need to do things differently. We need to do more. And there are real opportunities when we're looking at how we're building Canada, that we have regulations, like the regulations, I'm sure we'll be speaking about them today, about the enhanced methane regulations on oil and gas and landfill, landfill methane as well. But we also need more than just regulations. We need to be looking at what are we building. And so that comes in to enter ties between provinces, talking about major projects and what are the opportunities there. And I think that that's an exciting opportunity because we have a challenge in front of us, but we don't shy away from challenges. And this is our opportunity to think of new ways and to work on new ways to meet those targets. [00:03:23] Speaker 1: But, you know, Minister, I'm not seeing this to be glib, but is ambitious just another way of saying impossible as the way things are now? Because that's what Stephen Gilbeau said more or less when he resigned from cabinet. And we've seen people like Catherine Abreu and Simon Donner and others who used to advise the government resigning their position, saying where this government is going on this policy makes me these, it is impossible to meet these targets now. [00:03:45] Julie DeBruzan: I think it's absolutely possible. We're determined to do it. And not only that, we need to keep doing it. And if I could just keep emphasizing on that point, we need to keep fighting climate change. We need to keep on working to reducing our emissions. And part of it is the obligation we have to our future generations. But the other piece is that if we're going to build a strong economy, we need to be doing, going where the world's going. And that is towards a low-carbon economy. So there is an economic interest as well as just a moral obligation we have to our future generations. [00:04:22] Speaker 1: Right. But we're nearing the rolling over of the calendar to 2026, right? And carbon capture is still a long ways off and it's conditional on a pipeline. Nuclear is not going to be done and in place by 2030, I don't imagine. So these things we're looking at building, I appreciate that if we do them in a different way, they can help with this. But the target was 2030. The other target is 2035. And, you know, unless we can do these things at truly extraordinary speed, it doesn't seem like it's going to happen. [00:04:52] Julie DeBruzan: I think we need to keep trying. We need to keep trying. We need to keep doing the work. And in many places, you are seeing that actually being put in place. And you're right, some of these projects like the high-speed rail are going to take longer, but it's going to change the way we can travel through the corridor between Toronto and Quebec City. And Iqaluit Hydro getting a city off of diesel, that's a real opportunity not only on emissions reductions, but also for the health of people living in the city and on reducing bills. There are so many ways that we need to keep working and we need to keep moving forward. I'm not giving up. And I don't think our country should be giving up. [00:05:30] Speaker 1: Okay. But you talk about the methane regulations that you rolled out today. The methane pledge that Canada was a co-convener of, and the original plan was to, you know, get below a certain amount by 2030. The MOU with Alberta, which, you know, carves out the oil and gas emissions there until 2035. So, you know, with the consumer carbon price going away, the EV mandate stalled, the carve-out of clean electricity regulations, now the carve-out on methane. I mean, this makes 2035 look like a best-case scenario, does it not? [00:06:06] Julie DeBruzan: So much there. But let me start with the enhanced methane regulations because this is one that is, you know, the big news for today and I'm really excited about. And we have put out enhanced methane regulations. It was part of our climate competitiveness strategy that we would do that. The regulations will work to get nationally about 72% reductions on methane reductions from oil and gas across our country. We are still committed as a country to getting to 75% by 2030. But that's not just going to be through the regulations. That's going to be through other measures as well. And I was talking with people who work in clean technology, particularly in the methane space today. They were saying that having regulations like the enhanced methane regulations that we put out today help to catalyze that work in creating those technologies that we need. So when we talk about the MOU with Alberta, it has 2035 for 75%. But that can work within the equivalency agreement that we would negotiate with them. We've negotiated past equivalency agreements with them. That can work within the regulation. But as a country, and that includes all our provinces, with other measures in addition to the regulations, we need to get to 75% reductions by 2030. [00:07:24] Speaker 1: But, I mean, how do you do that with a five-year delay for the oil and gas sector in Alberta? Because does that not then put an unfair burden on lower methane emitters than the oil and gas sector, which is the biggest source of it? [00:07:39] Julie DeBruzan: It's not actually a delay because the way the regulation works is that it would be about a 72% reduction in methane emissions by 2030. So the regulatory piece, getting to 75% by 2035, that's kind of in addition to where the regulation maps out now. But it's all the other measures that also have to come into play, including work in clean technologies that get our whole country, including Alberta, to 75% reductions by 2030. And I'll point out, like, we have an equivalency agreement with them under the previous regulations on methane, and they actually beat the targets for that. Alberta did, and we've done well as a country in meeting the targets on methane reductions. There are some of the most harmful forms of emissions that we have when we're talking about climate change impact. So moving forward and reducing those emissions, and the work that we're doing today with the new regulations on oil and gas and on landfill, that actually is a really big step forward for our country on how we're going to reduce emissions and fight climate change. [00:08:49] Speaker 1: Well, the Pamela Institute put out a statement saying the federal methane regulations are well-designed, so they agree with you on the structure and design of the program. There's a but. Their effect will be decided in the Alberta MOU talks. So, so much of the country's climate ambitions rests on a deal that is predicated on a bitumen pipeline. So, you, you, you, when you look at that, because so much of the equivalency agreements, the pathways project, it's all conditional on some sort of a private sector proponent and approval and development potentially of this bitumen pipeline. So, you're taking a lot of risk on meeting your international commitments on, on this particular project, it seems. [00:09:30] Julie DeBruzan: So, when we talk about the way our regulations work and on equivalency agreements, we have now a national regulation that, that we've put forward on, on oil and gas and reducing emissions, methane emissions from oil and gas. That applies right across the country and any province can, can negotiate an equivalency with us to do, to meet the same outcome as what we have in the regulation. That applies for any province and, and I'll just point out again, there's a real interest in doing this, Alberta, if we're picking them as an example, actually has surpassed their targets, surpassed the targets on the previous one. But when we're looking at export markets that are looking to buy, for example, oil and gas, they're looking at rebuying reduced emission, they're looking at methane emissions as part of what they're looking for. So, it's, it's part of the economics moving forward for our energy industry as well. [00:10:27] Speaker 1: Well, look, you, you, you've heard the criticism and the frustration from your, your colleague, Mr. Gilbo, you know, obviously from people like Simon Donner and Catherine O'Brien and others who, who, who see a retreat in climate policy. I was speaking with some people in industry today about this methane plant and what their thoughts are of it. Now, they haven't seen the regulations yet is what I was told that it's going to be tomorrow, I think, before those are published and they can see it. But already they tell me that there is a disagreement in the compliance costs on a per ton basis between your department and industry of about $3,000 a ton. And some of the technology that's, that's highlighted as the alternative path, you know, the flexibility, they argue that those have been proven not to quite work as effectively as would be required to meet the target. And the idea of equivalency agreements across multiple jurisdictions means you then have to navigate three to four or five different types of, of compliance challenges as an industry. And that just creates more of a regulatory burden rather than a consistent national standard. So, you know, I don't think we're going to get a statement until they get the regulations, but already there's a pretty strong skepticism from people in, in the particular sectors you're, you're regulating here. [00:11:38] Julie DeBruzan: Look, I'm not going to talk down our clean technology industries. Just yesterday, I was at the University of Calgary and I got to see how they're developing robots to do methane detection. And it's a technology that they're looking to sell globally to other countries. You know, just even today at the announcement, we had people who were in the clean technology industries targeting specifically methane. Canada is actually one of the front runners around the world in developing those types of technologies. So, I think we do have the know-how to be able to do that. And, and as I mentioned earlier, when other countries are looking to reduce their emissions, when other countries are looking at purchasing low emissions products, there is an interest in making sure that Canada is selling those products. Otherwise, we're just going to fall behind. So, Canada moving forward globally, the world is moving towards a low carbon economy. And I want to make sure that we're working to have Canada on its front foot and at the top and leading in that, in that domain. [00:12:39] Speaker 1: But, you know, as a final point, Minister, you know, the Prime Minister and you were talking about, you know, clean investments as a key to doing this. There have been a series of tax credits in budget after budget after budget to try to spur this. And the Environment Commissioner last month found that while there was $9 billion allotted for clean tax credits, only $22 million were paid out. So, if we're not going to do it on the regulation side and rely on the investment, but the incentives you have in place for the investment aren't triggering the investment, where does that leave the country? [00:13:10] Julie DeBruzan: They work in tandem. So, if we're going to use the example of the enhanced methane regulations that were released today, then we have clean technology credits. We have different investment tax credits that can help support development in that area. And what I heard when I was talking with people who came out to hear about the announcement is that having the enhanced methane regulation actually works as a catalyst for people to want to invest in these technologies. So, they're connected. It's not just the regulation. It's a regulation plus. And that's where investment tax credits also play a role. And it's where supporting these industries that are being developed right here in Canada also plays a role. [00:13:50] Speaker 1: Okay, so, how do we just reconcile that reassurance with the concerns expressed by former Minister Gilboa, from Catherine Abreu and others, who essentially say that the MOU in particular has kind of dismantled climate policy and the targets are impossible. How do you reconcile those two things for people who don't fully understand the fine print of regulations that intersect with things? [00:14:13] Julie DeBruzan: Look, I'll respectfully disagree, but I think that there's a lot of great advice that we can get from all of those individuals and from experts who are really interested in climate change across the board. But what we're seeing right now, like today, announcing enhanced, not just announcing, putting in place enhanced regulations for oil and gas methane, also for landfill methane, which we're not really talking about a lot, but in itself, we'll reduce methane emissions, it'll be about 100 megatons of reductions right from landfill. That's actually putting things into action. And so, I really would say there is more to come. We're continuing to work, but we're doing that work. And today's a good example of that. [00:14:56] Speaker 1: Julie DeBruzan, Minister of the Environment and Climate Change. Thank you so much for your time today. I appreciate you joining us. [00:15:01] Speaker 2: Thank you. [00:15:06] Speaker ?: Thank you.