Carney vs. Poilievre on dealing with Donald Trump — Power & Politics

[0:00] Well, as the United States makes more demands of Canada and gripes about those provincial alcohol bans, [0:04] Prime Minister Mark Carney is getting frank about the state of trade talks. [0:08] Here's one exchange today with reporter Graham Richardson. [0:11] I'm assuming, like most Canadians don't see any of this as normal. [0:17] Look, what do you think rupture means? [0:20] Rupture means that things are normal. [0:22] Nostalgia is not as right. [0:23] Things have changed. [0:24] Things have changed fundamentally. [0:25] What if this alcohol thing becomes more than an irritant? [0:30] It's, you know, like... [0:32] Look, you know what's an irritant? [0:35] 50% tariff on steel. [0:37] 50% tariff on aluminum. [0:39] 25% tariff on automobiles. [0:42] All the tariffs on forest products. [0:45] Those are more than irritants. [0:46] Those are violations of our trade deal. [0:48] Okay? [0:50] The Prime Minister says U.S. trade talks could take some time, [0:52] but Conservative leader Pierre Polyev says they've already taken long enough. [0:56] We're a year into this. [0:59] He was elected on the single promise that he would negotiate a win [1:04] with the U.S. [1:05] And since that time, he's been losing, losing, losing. [1:10] Prime Minister Mark Carney was asked about that criticism [1:13] from the opposition leader. [1:14] Here was his response. [1:16] No, it's pretty cool. [1:17] More than that. [1:18] I'm saying you need to explain your plan to Canadians on trade talks. [1:22] He says you're showboating too much. [1:23] You need to stop the YouTube videos. [1:25] Yeah. [1:25] Once you ever negotiated that. [1:27] So it's that kind of week as we bring in our reporters' roundtable. [1:33] We have Robert Fyfe. [1:34] He is the Ottawa Bureau Chief for the Globe and Mail. [1:36] Mia Rabson is the Deputy Parliamentary Bureau Chief at the Canadian Press. [1:40] And Joël-Denis Bellevance is the Parliamentary Bureau Chief for La Presse. [1:43] Good to see you all, gang. [1:46] J.D., let's start with you. [1:48] We did hear some pretty candid stuff there from the Prime Minister [1:51] about where things are, this push for concessions from the United States [1:55] before talks and negotiations even begin. [1:57] What do you make of what we learned from Mark Carney and Dame LeBlanc this week? [2:00] Well, the tone from the Prime Minister and also the language that he used to me [2:04] was without precedent so far. [2:07] And I would say that he's showing that he's had it up to there [2:11] with the show, the circus in Washington. [2:14] And then he has no more patience for those guys. [2:17] And he sort of treated them like the way they should be, I would say, not serious. [2:22] And then when you get more serious, come back to the table. [2:25] We may talk about putting back the wines and the booze from the United States on the shelves. [2:29] But until that time, I would remind you, and that's, I'm quoting him indirectly, [2:34] I would remind you that you're hurting our industry with a 50% tariffs on steel, [2:39] aluminium in the front. [2:39] So, Mr. Carney, I think he's already looking past the midterms [2:45] and trying to see what kind of political situation we'll have in Washington. [2:48] But with Howard Lutnick, he's had it. [2:50] You could see it. [2:51] You could feel it. [2:52] You could hear it in his tone and his voice. [2:53] It's a language you use. [2:54] Yeah, and Mia, like I said this earlier in the week that I need to stop being shocked [2:59] by the Americans' ability to be shocked by the consequences of their actions. [3:03] Like, they start a trade war, we pull our booze. [3:06] They bomb Iran, they close the strait. [3:08] And they act like they're the victim in conflicts that they kind of instigate. [3:11] Yeah, I mean, it was amusing is maybe not the right word. [3:14] But, I mean, sometimes you got to laugh or you would cry. [3:17] But they were seeming to suggest that we are being mean because we're not putting their liquor [3:20] on our shelves when that move was in direct response to their moves. [3:26] I think the prime minister was a lot more forthcoming this week about the strategy, [3:30] about what they're putting on the table. [3:32] We heard from Janice Charette, who's going to be the lead negotiator on the Kuzma deal, [3:35] that her mandate is to keep the fundamentals of the Kuzma deal as well as get rid of the tariffs. [3:41] Those are her two main priorities. [3:43] And we heard from the prime minister a few times this week. [3:45] I agree with J.D. [3:46] He seems a little bit fed up. [3:48] He's also putting a little bit, maybe a few more words to his strategy of we're willing to wait you out. [3:55] And I think what he said today is we're not just sitting back and taking notes from the Americans [3:59] on what they want to happen in this deal. [4:02] Like, we have our own thoughts. [4:03] We have our own concessions we would like. [4:05] We would like the tariffs gone. [4:06] So I think we did see a little bit more from them, which was, I think, probably needed. [4:11] The opposition parties are not entirely out to left field on saying that the government [4:17] hasn't been that transparent in what's happening, what the negotiations are going on, [4:21] what they're putting on the table. [4:22] We've seen from both the Americans and the Mexicans a report on what their consultations [4:27] want from their negotiations. [4:29] We haven't seen that from Canada. [4:30] So we've had a few more details this week, which I do think was needed from the prime minister. [4:34] But, you know, Bob, I, look, I totally get the desire for transparency. [4:38] And I get, you know, the political forces at play for an opposition to say, [4:42] what is the strategy? [4:42] You're not telling us anything. [4:44] But how do you satisfy the desire for transparency and deal with those political demands [4:49] and not just show your hand to the United States? [4:53] You know what I mean? [4:54] Like, you talk strategy publicly. [4:55] In these kind of negotiations, and we've seen the NAFTA negotiations under, that led to, [5:03] first of all, the Canada-US negotiations under Brian Maroney and the NAFTA negotiations [5:08] and the renegotiation in 2018, we didn't know a lot of the details because they're negotiations. [5:16] But one of the things this government has learned, they got burned the last time they dealt with [5:20] Donald Trump. [5:21] We got rid of the digital sales tax for them. [5:23] We said we would, well, this was under Biden, but we said we wouldn't allow Chinese electric [5:31] vehicles. [5:31] Yeah, we harmonized our tariffs with them. [5:32] And we harmonized with that. [5:34] And what happened? [5:34] We got screwed. [5:36] And the government understands that we're not going to give any concessions until negotiations [5:43] begin. [5:44] Now, I am told that the negotiations or the discussions with U.S. Trade Representative Jameson [5:52] Greer are more positive than the public believes to be the case, largely because Donald Trump [6:00] is preoccupied with the Iran war, and Howard Lutnik is kind of being pushed out of the picture, [6:06] even though he appears at congressional committees and says Canada sucks and all of this sort of [6:12] stuff. [6:12] Jameson Greer is more in control of these negotiations, but they are still trying to play us. [6:20] They're playing Mexico against us. [6:22] They are playing by demanding this sort of Costco-like entry free. [6:30] If you get a membership, you can join us. [6:32] And Canada, you know, Mark Carney's no dummy, and he's not going to let the Americans play [6:41] us. [6:41] But it's going to be a very, very difficult road ahead, and nobody should be under any [6:46] illusions, and we're still not going to come out of this looking better than we have [6:51] before. [6:52] That's for sure. [6:53] And I think the prime minister in Canada has all learned some lessons from other countries [6:57] that signed deals with the United States. [6:59] It was not worth the paper it was written on. [7:03] But those weren't deals. [7:04] They were kind of like term sheets or demand letters. [7:07] And, you know, it was a weird thing. [7:09] It was like three pages long. [7:10] But they were presented as deals. [7:11] And so Mr. Carney and the government will not go through this kind of same thing that would [7:17] lead Canadians to believe that we suffered a defeat. [7:20] And that's why he's being very cautious about it. [7:22] And I would argue that it is, I know some industries are suffering right now. [7:26] The steel, aluminum, the auto sector, the lumber, and all those industries that are [7:33] hit by tariffs. [7:34] But I think the most wise thing to do is to wait it out until, to write it out until November [7:41] when the midterms happen. [7:44] And then we all expect that the Republican will lose control of Congress. [7:47] Well, on those sectoral tariffs, I mean, like Greer has said, like, that's not going to [7:52] be resolved in the Kuzma talks because these are things the president has done under presidential [7:55] authority. [7:56] And when Dominique LeBlanc was here the other day, you know, the way they see this going [8:00] in structure and shape is the trilateral Kuzma agreement staying in place because Greer [8:04] said we will sustain market access for Canada and Mexico. [8:08] But then with subordinate deals, U.S., Mexico, U.S., Canada, to resolve some other issues. [8:13] And maybe that's where the sectoral stuff happens. [8:16] I don't know. [8:17] But it is going to be, yet again, another restructuring of the agreement in shape, form, [8:22] and texture. [8:23] Yeah, and I think we saw that in what Janice Charette said, where her was her mandate. [8:27] She was very clear they were two different things, the fundamentals of Kuzma and getting [8:30] rid of the tariffs. [8:31] So she doesn't see those necessarily as being part and parcel of the same thing. [8:35] I think the prime minister used the strongest language he's used yet to say that those tariffs [8:39] on steel and aluminum, et cetera, are in violation of the agreement that we have. [8:43] And I think, you know, the deals that the United States made with those other countries [8:47] being not worth the paper it's written on right now, Kuzma is not being, they're not living [8:51] up to the deal of Kuzma. [8:52] So Canada is being somewhat cautious because there's not a lot of trust there in, okay, [8:57] we're going to make a deal, but are you actually going to then follow it? [8:59] Or five days later, are you going to change it and put on new tariffs? [9:02] So I think the prime minister has been rightly cautious in all of this. [9:05] And he's used to making these deals behind closed doors. [9:08] He's not someone who has negotiated things in public, and these are not the kinds of talks [9:13] that are going to do well in public. [9:14] If you give the president of the United States a tiny little bit of information, he's going [9:18] to find every way to use it against Canada. [9:20] So I think Canada has been cautious for that reason. [9:23] But there is no doubt that those tariffs are hurting, and that is Canada's number one [9:28] goal right now, that we at least get them reduced. [9:31] Kuzma is sort of protecting Canada right now against some of the other tariffs, at least [9:34] for the time being. [9:36] But those major tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos are really hurting, and that is Canada's [9:41] priority. [9:42] We were going to get rid of them in the fall. [9:43] There was that sign that right before the ad came out that those might go away. [9:47] But we're sort of past that. [9:49] Yes, political interference in a foreign country's affairs is bad, unless it's J.D. [9:53] Vance going to Hungary for Viktor Orban. [9:55] But, you know, Bob, as you listen to the litany of grievances growing with the United States [9:59] and the focus on the booze ban, I'm reminded of the quote from the great political philosopher [10:03] Homer Simpson, alcohol, the creation of and solution to all of life's problems. [10:09] They are asking Mark Carney to do something he does not have the power to do, right? [10:13] Like, he can ask Doug Ford to start buying American booze again, but he can't make them. [10:18] He can't. [10:18] No, he can't. [10:19] But look, if he asked them, I'm sure the premiers would agree to it. [10:23] But the fact of the matter is, you're not, we've gone down that road before where we've [10:28] made concessions and the Americans have taken us to the cleaners. [10:32] So, and also, let's remember, Donald Trump, from his years in the private sector, he was [10:40] always screwing over people. [10:42] He would make a deal and then renege on them. [10:44] He wouldn't pay them. [10:45] This is his modus operandi. [10:47] So, we're, you know, the government is aware of the kind of guy you're dealing with. [10:51] So, we're not going to make these concessions ahead of time. [10:54] We'll get in negotiations. [10:55] Let's try to get an agreement. [10:57] Let's try to see if Trump will sign it. [11:01] I don't know how long any deal with him would last in any case. [11:05] And to J.D.'s point, and I think everybody agrees with it, the government has to play [11:10] the long game and hope that Congress gets control of the, the Democrats get control, and not [11:18] that they're great free traders, but they're at least reasonable, and that the business community [11:23] in the United States and the, and the U.S. states that are 35 of them that are major traders [11:29] with Canada can put some pressure on, on the, on the Trump administration to see, to realize [11:36] that this trade agreement is actually in the United States' best interest, too. [11:40] Well, this is where I wanted to go with it, because me, like, as bad as the sectoral terrorists [11:44] are, I'm in no way trying to minimize, you know, the damage that's done. [11:48] The fact that Trump hasn't moved more aggressively on the Kuzma compliance sectors, I mean, it [11:54] kind of suggests that they know the circular firing squad nature that that would be if [12:01] they went much harder on tearing up the bigger deal. [12:04] They absolutely do. [12:05] And they're getting a lot of pressure from, on, from their own people, from agricultural [12:09] producers in the United States, from, from other businesses in the United States who [12:13] are heavily dependent on Canada, on, on the business that they do with Canada. [12:18] I can't remember the number of states, I should know it, because I'm sure this government has [12:21] given me the number 75,000 times, but it's, like, majority of states are, are, Canada is [12:26] their biggest trading partner. [12:27] Yeah, yeah, 35, 35. [12:28] Is it 35? [12:29] We had, we had a reporter who was in Texas recently and was talking to people on the street [12:34] about just, you know, what do you know about Canada? [12:35] And they are buying into the rhetoric from Donald Trump. [12:38] They're like, we don't need Canada. [12:39] We don't do anything with Canada. [12:40] No. [12:40] Canada has not done a great job at selling the American people. [12:44] Not the administration, not the business leaders, but the American people. [12:48] That American media ecosystem, though, right, with Newsmax and Fox News, it's tough to bust [12:52] into that when it is total gaslighting, right? [12:55] But we, I think Canada has just taken it for granted for a lot, for many, many decades, [12:59] that this relationship was fine and we didn't actually have to work very hard to convince [13:02] people that, you know, we mattered. [13:04] And I think we realized very, very hard, in the very hard way in the last couple of years, [13:08] that they don't necessarily see why we matter and we got to do a lot better job at making [13:12] them understand why. [13:14] Yeah. [13:15] I mean, you know, once again, J.D., America is disrupting the whole world, right, between [13:18] the trade shocks, the oil shocks that, you know, described as they make choices and everyone [13:22] else pays the costs. [13:23] And how you punch through to make them realize beyond their own immediate self-interest that [13:29] they're losing ground with everybody else on the planet is a challenge. [13:34] Yeah. [13:35] And I think, I sense a growing frustration in Washington that whatever they say, whatever [13:41] they do, whenever they attack Canada, those attacks are, you know, not affecting the Prime [13:48] Minister's decision in Ottawa. [13:49] No. [13:50] You don't control the Prime Minister. [13:51] And then... [13:52] No, he's a disciplined measure. [13:53] Exactly. [13:54] And I think since Davis, they've noticed that he's his own man making his own policies and [13:58] having some influence outside of the Washington orbit. [14:02] And that, I think, is a growing frustration that I've seen from comments from Howard Luckney, [14:07] for example. [14:08] But two of the points I want to make quickly. [14:10] Janice Charette, when she was in Ottawa this week, she called for the business people in [14:15] Canada to lobby more in the United States for, you know, the resumption of talks and making [14:22] sure that Cosma survives. [14:23] That's one thing. [14:25] The other thing is that, I forgot my point. [14:28] All right. [14:29] Well, you nailed the first one. [14:31] So, we'll give you a double credit. [14:33] Go ahead. [14:34] Who's the winner out of all of this? [14:36] China is the winner out of this. [14:38] They have 1.2... [14:39] First of all, they're on the verge of becoming the number one economic power in the world. [14:43] They're the second military power in the world. [14:46] They've got 1.2 million people. [14:49] The United States has 350 million people. [14:52] But if you take Canada, you take Europe and UK and Japan and South Korea, you can take [14:57] on China. [14:58] Yeah. [14:59] But this guy, this Trump, has alienated all of that, and he's going to stand alone without [15:03] any allies, both economic and militarily. [15:07] And China becomes the winner, and they are making deals everywhere, not only with Canada [15:11] in terms of electric vehicles, but all over the world because the United States is giving [15:16] that up. [15:17] We're in the United States who are about to become somewhat of a force in the electric [15:20] vehicle industry leading into the Trump administration. [15:24] Battery plants, manufacturing plants, it was all coming together, and now it's all kind [15:28] of fallen apart. [15:29] And that is all because of what the president of the United States has done. [15:33] And it's harming their automobile sector as much as it's harming ours. [15:36] And if you look at what's happening, J.D., because of the disruption in the Strait [15:39] of Hormuz, like if there was ever an argument for electrification of moving away, for reliance [15:43] and foreign energy markets, and the volatility of a conflict zone commodity, it's that, right? [15:49] Yeah. [15:50] And consumers, at least in Quebec, I know for that, are looking more and more at electric [15:53] vehicles because of the gas price that is rising, risen up to, at 1.2 dollars a liter. [15:59] And it's gone down a bit with the suspension of the excess tax by the federal government. [16:04] Also, I think it was raised by the prime minister when he met Mr. Trump at the Oval Office last [16:13] October. [16:14] I would bring back the Keystone XL project with the U.S. [16:18] They're looking at energy security, and I think that's something that might occupy the [16:22] U.S. administration on something other than, you know, booze, if I may say. [16:27] Well, I'm sure it's part of the negotiations, or will be part of it. [16:30] We can get a bourbon pipeline just to bring it in Ontario, have it go right to the shelves [16:34] of the LCBO. [16:35] But look, like that's on where things are traded. [16:38] The politics of it this week, you know, Bob, we had a clip going into the break of Pierre [16:41] Polyev saying, oh yeah, I've got a plan to get a deal with no tariffs, even though Greer [16:44] said there's not going to be any deal without tariffs. [16:47] The losing, losing, losing versus the yap, yap, yap. [16:50] What do you make of where it's going sort of in that domestic political dynamic? [16:53] Well, look, I mean, Pierre Polyev can't keep his caucus together. [16:56] So how can he expect to negotiate with the Trump administration? [17:01] It's not serious. [17:03] And we've all seen when what's happened with Britain, with Starmer, you know, he was going [17:10] to have this great relationship with the United States. [17:12] Well, now Trump is going after him all the time. [17:17] Anything he, he's just not a reliable person to negotiate. [17:20] And I just don't see Pierre Polyev, who's, I don't think he's ever negotiated anything, [17:27] is going to be the person that would be able to get a deal, you know, but all the power [17:32] to him if he thinks he can. [17:33] I just don't think, I don't think it's a lot, a lot of credibility. [17:38] But how do you think that will resonate with, you know, Canadians watching that, right? [17:42] That there is no deal and no obvious visible progress and you have this attack line coming [17:48] from the Conservatives, Mia? [17:49] I mean, there is some, you know, risk for the prime minister because he did campaign [17:53] on this. [17:54] He did make promises. [17:55] I think that most Canadians, not all, but most Canadians are willing to give him a bit [17:59] of time because I think most Canadians understand that we are dealing with a very unreliable [18:05] negotiator in the United States, someone who you just, they don't trust him and they know [18:08] that it's a very difficult situation. [18:10] I don't know that many Canadians would buy that we could just march in there and say, [18:13] well, we want to deal without tariffs and we'll do X, Y, and Z and, you know, here sign [18:16] on the dotted line. [18:17] I think most reasonable people understand that it's not quite that simple. [18:22] That said, people are hurting. [18:25] Affordability was an issue before this started. [18:26] It has not gotten any better. [18:28] The war has not made it any better. [18:30] Right now, the prime minister and the liberals are benefiting from Canadians, sort of not blaming them [18:34] for that. [18:35] They are sort of putting the blame elsewhere, but that will not last forever. [18:38] Yeah, the clock is ticking. [18:39] The clock is absolutely ticking. [18:40] He's got his majority now. [18:41] He's got his majority now. [18:42] He's got to start producing. [18:43] He's got to start showing some kind of... [18:44] But how does that change? [18:45] The majority, J.D., changes the things you can control domestically, right? [18:48] How does that change things with Trump? [18:50] You don't have to worry about parliament falling while you're doing negotiations, but I don't [18:53] know if that changes how the Americans view all of this. [18:56] Maybe not, but in terms of thinking, the prime minister knows that if he goes abroad, he initiates [19:03] some policies. [19:04] He knows he's not going to be defeated in the House of Commons. [19:06] Yeah, yeah, yeah. [19:07] It does change your mindset about governing. [19:08] But at the bargaining table with Jameson Greer and with Donald Trump, I don't think the care [19:12] of majority, minority, whatever. [19:13] Exactly. [19:14] Because the exhibits, the number of exhibits against Mr. Trump as very little reliable partner [19:20] has been accumulating over the last months, deals with countries he does not respect. [19:27] He wanted to invade Greenland and annex it and maybe blow up NATO. [19:33] And then the Iran war was supposed to end in four or five weeks and the price of gas would [19:37] drop like a rock. [19:38] Greenland seems like a lifetime ago. [19:39] It probably did happen. [19:40] Two months ago. [19:41] You know what I mean? [19:42] It's a number of exhibits against the president as a reliable partner. [19:46] I think cognizance have seen that, the number of exhibits that have been there against Mr. [19:50] Trump and he reached the same conclusion as Mia just mentioned, it's impossible to negotiate [19:56] something that is valuable for Canada with Mr. Trump. [19:59] I think that the prime minister though, it's given him a little bit of space to focus more [20:04] on that. [20:05] He's not constantly having to worry. [20:06] And so, no, I don't think that Jameson Greer or Howard Lucknick care. [20:09] They probably don't even understand exactly what that means. [20:12] I mean, I remember Pierre Polyev trying to explain to Joe Rogan how our system worked [20:15] and he just had no clue. [20:16] So I think what happens in Washington is not necessarily relevant in terms of us have the [20:22] majority here. [20:23] But for the prime minister, for the government, that's kind of done and dusted. [20:26] They don't have to sort of constantly be worrying about how they're going to keep the parliamentarians [20:31] on side. [20:32] They can throw all of their energy at this. [20:33] But if he's going to be successful, he needs to show Canadians that he's doing something here. [20:40] Mines. [20:41] A hundred percent. [20:42] And pipelines and LNG facilities and getting that investment dollars that he's invested [20:48] a lot of time going around the world, getting them to come into Canada, that's what he needs [20:53] to do to be able to demonstrate to people that he's doing something other than trying [20:56] to deal with Trump. [20:57] Five seconds. [20:58] Economic update on Tuesday might be a big rendezvous for the prime minister. [21:01] Yeah. [21:02] That's going to be interesting. [21:03] Joe Rogan's not a details guy in the Westminster system. [21:05] I know. [21:06] It's shocking. [21:07] This is what you learn when you watch Power & Politics and our Reporter Roundtable. [21:10] Bob Fyfe, Joelle Denis-Belavans, and Mia Rabson. [21:14] I am David Cochran. [21:15] Thank you all so much for watching Power & Politics.