Burnham meets Zelenskyy: Can they change Trump's mind on Ukraine? — The Cathy Newman Show

[0:00] What I have to do in my role is try and repair bridges so that the support comes back. [0:07] We are right behind you and that will not change. [0:11] We know that the last few days, the last few hours, have been very dark and difficult days for Ukraine. [0:21] Hello there. President Zelensky is in town and Hollywood couldn't have scripted a warmer welcome. [0:30] Andy Burnham rolled out the red carpet for him, quite literally, along with a ceremonial guard. [0:36] And be in no doubt, these images are 100% the point. [0:40] It's about the Prime Minister putting his arm around his counterpart and showing the world, and more specifically the US, [0:46] that the UK and much of Europe have still got his back. [0:50] We're behind you and that will not change. [0:53] We know that the last few days, the last few hours, have been very dark and difficult days for Ukraine. [1:02] We know that the country sustained heavy bombardment in the last 24 hours, and Kyiv particularly. [1:11] And we would want to extend our condolences to all of those people in Ukraine who've lost loved ones as a result of what has been happening. [1:22] That phrase, dark and difficult days, was aptly chosen because nearly five years into this war with Russia, [1:30] deadly attacks on Kyiv have intensified. [1:33] Just today, dozens of ballistic missiles were launched on the city's energy infrastructure, [1:37] leaving 600,000 people without power. [1:41] But the brutal truth is, fighting the enemy isn't the only thing on Zelensky's mind, [1:45] because now he's also having to keep America on side. [1:48] And these are dark and difficult days for that relationship, which has never been that special in the first place. [1:55] One of the Ukrainian president's advisers has said Elon Musk's SpaceX technology, [2:00] paid for by the Pentagon and crucial to help Ukraine intercept Russian drones, has been restricted. [2:06] And in Kyiv, they do not believe this is a coincidence. [2:10] It's being linked to Trump's demands that Zelensky stop targeting Russian oil refineries, [2:14] which the Republican Party fears has been pushing up global fuel prices [2:18] and jeopardizing their election chances in the midterms. [2:22] All I know is that Zelensky and Putin have to get together and end that ridiculous war. [2:27] I think actually Putin wants to make a deal more than Zelensky. [2:30] What gives you such confidence that Putin wants the war to end more than Zelensky? [2:36] Only in dealing. That's what I've done my whole life is deals. [2:39] I think Putin wants it probably. I think they both want it to end. [2:44] You know, honestly, they both want it to end and they don't know how to get to that point. [2:48] But despite all this, what was striking today was that the UK PM went out of his way not to criticize Trump, [2:56] casting himself in the now familiar role of go-between. [2:59] Here he is in the Commons earlier. [3:02] What I have to do in my role is try and repair bridges so that the support comes back. [3:09] And therefore, I should, at this moment in time, be careful in terms of laying the ground to bring people back together. [3:18] That is the role I intend to play. It's the right role for me to play in this moment. [3:23] I will listen to President Zelensky carefully, but he won't be going away from Britain today empty-handed. [3:29] You know, all of this is becoming something of a ritual, isn't it? [3:32] Because when Trump lashes out, Europe and the UK rally round. [3:36] Remember the infamous Oval Office showdown? [3:39] You're not in a good position. You don't have the cards right now. [3:44] With us, you start having cards. [3:45] I'm not playing cards. [3:46] Right now, you're playing cards. [3:48] You're playing cards. [3:49] You're gambling with the lives of millions of people. [3:52] You're gambling with World War III. [3:55] You're gambling with World War III. [3:58] And what you're doing is very disrespectful to the country, this country. [4:03] That's backed you far more than a lot of people said they should have. [4:07] Well, a day later, Zelensky arrived in Downing Street to meet the then PM, Keir Starmer. [4:15] Well, let me just say that you're very, very welcome here in Downing Street. [4:20] And as you heard from the cheers on the street outside, you have full backing across the United Kingdom. [4:30] And we stand with you, with Ukraine, for as long as it may take. [4:35] And the same thing happened last year after Donald Trump met Vladimir Putin in Alaska and started echoing the Russian leaders' talking points. [4:43] Again, European leaders, including Sir Keir Starmer, rushed to Washington, D.C. to offer moral support. [4:50] Which brings us back to today. [4:52] As the red carpet is rolled up after another British show of solidarity with Ukraine, will it change anything in the White House this time? [4:59] Well, let's chat about this more now. [5:03] As you can see, I've got my Wednesday sofa duo here, the Labour peer, Baroness Thangham-Debenaer, former Conservative Minister Gillian Keegan. [5:10] Welcome to you both. [5:11] We've also got on the other end of the sofa our international affairs editor, Dominic Waghorn, who's been in Downing Street covering today's visit. [5:19] Dominic, what have you drawn from it all? [5:21] Well, as you say, it's a real sense of deja vu. [5:23] You see Donald Trump being sort of drawn over to the Moscow side of things, normally after a phone call with Vladimir Putin. [5:29] And then you see European allies rally around Zelensky and try and pull Trump back. [5:34] I think, you know, I think one hope, and this was a very carefully calibrated visit, you know, neither leader came over to our microphone outside Downing Street to speak. [5:43] Didn't want to risk being drawn into difficult territory by us journalists. [5:47] He was very careful, as you say, in the House of Commons not to talk about Donald Trump. [5:50] But he did say, we need to get support back, so kind of clearly recognising that the support from the Americans is drifting away from the Ukrainians. [5:59] And the Irish Guard was sending a clear message. [6:02] You know, that's the first time a foreign leader has been given that kind of ceremony. [6:05] You're welcome since Donald Trump was given it in Chequers. [6:08] I mean, I said it was like a Hollywood opening because, you know, that is the kind of thing you'd see in a film, isn't it? [6:13] Yeah. [6:13] You can see that sending a message to the states. [6:15] Exactly. [6:16] And it's sort of, it's written by the Foreign Office, presumably. [6:18] You know, let's send a message to Washington, what we gave you back then we can also give to Zelensky. [6:25] But we're not going to antagonise you further. [6:28] I think the hope in the Foreign Office in Downing Street is that this is mid-term madness, that Donald Trump is, you know, he plays domestic politics like wrestling. [6:36] He knows Zelensky is a villain, that the more you bash him on the right of American politics, the better you do. [6:40] And if you can somehow vilify him and make him the scapegoat for what you've done with your war on Iran that's jacked up the price of oil and you've got enough of your allies to go out and say, you know, the price you're paying at the pump is not the president's fault, it's not the fault of the war on Iran, it's because of Zelensky. [6:56] You know, however mad that seems to us, enough people saying that lie, peddling it enough, could win you some vote. [7:03] So the hope, I think, is that that's what he's playing at. [7:06] The fear is, actually, this is something much more serious, that the Western Alliance is in much more deep trouble. [7:10] Yeah, well, exactly. [7:11] And after the midterms, is there any hope that Trump will sort of spring back to his previous position? [7:15] That is the other big fear, isn't it? [7:17] You know, when he loses both houses, he lashes out and he always lashes out at those he perceives to be weaker than him and he blames Zelensky and he could lash out further. [7:27] But he also does have a deep-seated sympathy with Vladimir Putin that no one can fully explain, but also people around him do. [7:33] Elon Musk, you know, warning Zelensky here, gone too far by striking these refineries. [7:39] And overnight, for the last two nights, the Starlink system that is absolutely crucial to the way the Ukrainians use drones and defend themselves against Russian drones, just switched off at one in the morning. [7:50] And in an interview with another broadcaster this evening, Zelensky did say he believed that was deliberate and he went much further than we've heard him say before about Donald Trump saying that it is painful when you see the American president choosing the other side. [8:05] So running out of, I think, patience with this. [8:07] And if that's the fear in Ukraine, this is actually a deeper-seated problem. [8:11] It will extend beyond the midterms. [8:13] And for Andy Burnham, and, you know, foreign affairs are not really his comfort zone, this is a massive challenge, as it is for all the other European leaders, too. [8:19] Absolutely. Well, Dominic, thank you. [8:21] I think it's your debut on my sofa, so thank you very much for that analysis. [8:23] Great to be here. [8:24] Great stuff. [8:25] Quick word from our sofa duo, and then we're going to go to a former U.S. ambassador to NATO. [8:30] Fangham, you know, Keir Starmer constantly put himself in the position of trying to build a bridge between President Zelensky and Donald Trump. [8:37] And he did that fairly effectively. [8:39] Will Andy Burnham manage the same? [8:41] Well, he's clearly trying to do the same. [8:43] Again, we've got a different set of circumstances, and as Dominic said, here we are coming up to the midterms. [8:49] But we're also, as you reminded us, Cathy, we're coming into the fifth winter, which is devastating. [8:54] And to think of the Ukrainian people going through that with no power, no heat, no light, and without warning. [9:01] And I think that's what was chilling about the last few days. [9:05] I hope that what our Prime Minister is doing is going to keep things alive, keep hope of American support returning properly and fulsomely to Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. [9:17] But in the meantime, European allies, as Andy Burnham confirmed today with the welcome that he gave him, we stand full square with the Ukrainian people and with Zelensky. [9:26] Gillian, I have a feeling you're about to head off to the States. [9:28] I might have got that wrong. [9:30] Yes, I am. [9:30] Yeah, and I was there two weeks ago as well. [9:32] So, taking the temperature there, I mean, reflecting on the midterms and what happens after this? [9:36] His poll ratings are awful. [9:38] And I was in a swing state, Arizona, which I'd actually been in just before the last election, where everybody was saying that very openly they were going to vote for him, which is why I knew he'd win. [9:47] Very much that is not the temperature there with the people I met. [9:51] But it's also interesting what's going on in Ukraine and Russia, because for every one Ukrainian that's been lost on the battlefield, eight Russians are losing. [10:00] And this has been going on now for a long time. [10:04] And I think that is where Putin is quite rattled. [10:06] And actually, if Donald Trump played it completely differently, and it wasn't the midterms, and he wasn't just trying to blame the oil price on something that happened five years ago, as opposed to something he did five months ago, then actually it could be that strategically you could put more pressure on Putin to actually come to terms and actually get peace on terms that are more reasonable, as opposed to what's happened so far, where he said, I want to keep all the bits I've got. [10:31] And I want to take also bits I haven't even got through the battle. [10:35] So, you know, it really is. [10:38] I think he's pushing it further away. [10:40] And what's happening with Starlink is really everybody should be sending satellites up now, because you cannot rely on this one person. [10:48] That's what it's showing, because drone warfare is going to be so critical. [10:51] OK, well, look, great to hear your thoughts, and we'll have much more on that later in the show. [10:56] But let's go now to Kay Bailey Hutchinson, who's former U.S. ambassador to NATO. [11:01] Kay, thank you very much for joining us. [11:03] I see now that a dozen U.S. senators, including six Republicans, are now urging Donald Trump to rescind this diesel deal with Vladimir Putin. [11:12] Do you agree with that sentiment? [11:13] I do. [11:15] I think that if I were going to make an agreement with Russia, it would be a ceasefire that Russia leaves the sovereign nation of Ukraine. [11:26] And, yes, we'll buy your fuel. [11:31] If you do those things, here's our deal. [11:33] This is the negotiation I would make, because it is essential that Putin understand that he cannot take over a sovereign nation that is in Europe, and that they wouldn't defend themselves, which is exactly what they're doing. [11:54] I mean, is there any chance that a bipartisan bill to stop Donald Trump lifting sanctions on Russian oil could get through Congress? [12:03] Is there any hope of that? [12:04] The bipartisan bill has passed to put sanctions on Russia. [12:11] It was very bipartisan. [12:13] And I think that really shows the support for the in Congress and for the American people to support Ukraine against the invasion of their country. [12:26] And I just want to mention that we did give Ukraine, as Russia did as well, a commitment when they gave up their nuclear weapons after the collapse of the Soviet Union. [12:40] We gave them a security commitment. [12:42] And we need to be keeping that commitment. [12:47] So, no, I was making a slightly different point. [12:48] I was reading today that there is a bipartisan bill to try and stop Donald Trump lifting the sanctions on Russia, a kind of emergency move, as it were. [12:56] Has that got any chance of success? [12:57] Well, so much depends now on the election, because they will not come back into Congress until November. [13:06] So, I don't think that is something that would be an immediate help. [13:13] Could it pass? [13:14] I think it would be bipartisan. [13:16] And I think that the Congress has shown, and it will be the same Congress that passed the bill originally, that will come back in November. [13:27] And they've shown the support that they have for sanctioning Russia and moving Russia to the negotiating table to stop this war, this war that was started by Russia. [13:40] And we have been, in the past, supporting Ukraine, and I think we need to keep that commitment, and we need to keep the security agreement we gave them when they gave up their nuclear weapons, when Ukraine became a country that is sovereign and democratic. [14:03] You know, you're a Republican yourself. [14:06] I just wonder if you think that Donald Trump is out of control. [14:09] He's not out of control. [14:13] I think that he has done some things that are right, and certainly, I think, with Iran, that we need to make sure Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapon. [14:27] That is absolutely sound, and I support that. [14:31] I think that we also need to support Ukraine, and I think Congress has spoken very clearly that they agree that we should be supporting Ukraine, and we should put sanctions on Russia. [14:42] I don't think he's in any way not able to do that, and I think he will listen when he sees the consequences. [14:52] I mean, right now, Russia has just attacked the infrastructure, energy infrastructure of Ukraine, just in the past 24 hours, when he was calling for Ukraine to stop taking out the infrastructure in Russia. [15:10] And that's all Ukraine has, and that's all Ukraine has, is a defense against this invasion of their country. [15:17] You know, you were talking about the sanctions bill that was passed in memory of Senator Lindsey Graham after his death in the summer. [15:24] I wonder what he would make of what's going on, and Donald Trump appearing to side with Vladimir Putin now. [15:30] Well, I think Lindsey Graham was a trusted friend and advisor to President Trump, and I think he has told him very clearly, and certainly with the bill, that he had just returned from Ukraine, [15:47] and called the president to support that bill that would have said that we have to have the negotiated agreement, and it would have included a ceasefire and sanctions on Russia. [16:05] And I think that certainly Lindsey Graham would be talking to the president and telling him the truth, and the president did trust him, and sometimes he was able to bring the president around to his view. [16:18] There are still members of Congress that have the president's trust. [16:22] I know that they also agree that we need to tell Putin that we are serious about supporting Ukraine's right of sovereignty, and not to try to take away one of their defenses, which is the ability to fight back. [16:39] But Lindsey Graham's influence over Donald Trump, his taming influence, as it were, is being missed, isn't it? [16:45] Oh, we will miss Lindsey Graham in so many ways, because he was a patriot, he was very smart, he knew defense, and he knew security, and he was very pro-NATO, pro-Alliance, and he was certainly pro-Ukraine. [17:04] He had just left Ukraine when he had that unfortunate heart attack, so we all miss Lindsey Graham. [17:12] We were reflecting on the show about how there is this ritual, really, that when Donald Trump makes life difficult for Volodymyr Zelensky, you know, Europe rallies around, the U.K. rallies around, and now our prime minister, Andy Burnham, is talking about, you know, being a bridge between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky. [17:32] How possible do you think that is? Do you think there is respect for that role in the White House? [17:38] Well, I do think that the president would certainly listen to the prime minister and hear what he has to say, what he would put on the table. [17:50] I think that is true, and, you know, I recall the first prime minister to go into Ukraine after this invasion was the U.K. prime minister, Boris Johnson. [18:01] So there is a close tie there and one that is respected, and you never know what the right thing is that will make a difference here. [18:14] But I do believe that there is a bipartisan agreement in Congress, having passed the bill to sanction Russia because of their behavior, killing innocent civilians, attacking infrastructure in Ukraine, which is a sovereign nation. [18:31] I think the Congress has spoken very clearly, and I hope the president listens. [18:36] Do you think Donald Trump will change tack after the midterms? Because that's the hope here, and obviously the hope in Ukraine as well. [18:46] Will the president change tactics? Is that what you said? [18:50] Yeah, will he, you know, get more on Ukraine's side after the midterms? I mean, obviously, he's worried about the cost of gas and how that's going to impact at the midterms. [19:00] But I just wonder whether we can see a change of approach after that or not, or if it is something, you know, if there's a much more serious rupture here. [19:08] I think that the president considers that these security issues are more important than the election. [19:18] And I think depriving Iran of a nuclear weapon is one of those issues. [19:25] I think the president would like to stop the killing of both Russians, who are losing more than even the Ukrainians. [19:36] He really is bothered by all of the killing, and I think he wants a peace agreement. [19:44] How he is approaching Putin is, it's hard to explain. [19:49] It's hard to understand, but what the hope is that he will have a path to Putin to say, now is the time. [19:58] You have prosecuted this war. [20:01] You're not winning. [20:03] They are defeating you. [20:05] And maybe he says to Putin, I can't stop Zelensky from firing back when you are firing at them and destroying their energy infrastructure. [20:17] And so it's time for Putin to listen and time for the president to say, you know, we've had enough time and now we need to make good on both of our agreements, which was to provide security for Ukraine. [20:34] Kay Bailey Hutchison, thank you very much for joining us. [20:38] Well, Fangham, do you have any hope that Putin will listen to Trump? [20:43] And is Trump actually making the right noises or any hope that he will? [20:46] I think it was interesting what the former ambassador said there, very carefully saying it was hard to explain what Trump was doing. [20:53] Very diplomatic. [20:54] It's not just us then. [20:55] It's not just us. [20:56] And I thought, you know, like diplomats do, she said it diplomatically. [20:59] I think I would go a bit further and observe that, as Gillian said, you know, if eight Russians are dying for every one Ukrainian, the slaughter of the Ukrainians, let's remember, is caused because Russia invaded a sovereign nation. [21:13] Meanwhile, these Russians are dying and President Trump claims that he wants to stop the killing. [21:18] We hear that phrase quite a bit. [21:20] There is a way that he can make the killing worse. [21:22] And it's by enabling Putin to sell more oil. [21:24] And that's exactly what he's done. [21:26] He's got his own reason. [21:28] And also stopping, you know, Elon Musk's starling. [21:30] Exactly. [21:30] Which is devastating. [21:31] Yeah. [21:32] I mean, meanwhile, I'm glad that Andy Burnham today, welcoming Zelensky to his first visit as prime minister with Zelensky, has committed to more air defence missiles, has redoubled the commitment to further support. [21:45] We've already, between our government and the previous one, given £25 billion worth of support, including £16 billion worth of military equipment. [21:53] This is not nothing. [21:54] But it's good, I think, that Andy is choosing to show by example to Mr. Trump, as well as the rest of the world, and especially President Putin, up with this we will not put. [22:04] We will stand with Ukraine. [22:05] Because there's a principle of sovereignty here, which the former ambassador referred to. [22:09] Sovereignty really matters. [22:11] And whatever we do, allowing Putin to think that sovereignty is just a thing that he can shoot over and march through, that is a dangerous world. [22:20] It's not one we want to live in. [22:21] Tom, what did you make of what the former ambassador had to say in her very ambassadorial language? [22:26] Yeah, very experienced diplomat, but clearly, you know, being very diplomatic and sounding quite naive, I think, in cutting the president a huge amount of slack. [22:33] When you go to Ukraine, you're acutely aware that it's a very lethal, brutal game of one-upmanship. [22:37] I went to a drone factory in Kyiv. [22:39] They're pumping out 10,000 drones a month, and they say it's just not enough. [22:43] And they say the problem is they constantly innovate, but the Russians then reverse engineer and copy them and then scale up. [22:49] And the Russian hope was that they would be able to use those tactics this year to punch through in the Donbass. [22:55] But that much, much vaunted Russian offensive failed. [22:59] And Putin knows that his wheels are spinning now. [23:02] And so he's having to broaden out his strategy. [23:04] He's going to have to mobilise more men if it carries on. [23:06] But he's targeting petrol stations, service stations, the kind of places we would stop for hot dogs on the way into Kyiv, all being whacked now. [23:12] Yeah, remember those hot dogs. [23:14] Right, and the bridges are being hit and power stations. [23:16] So in a sense, Ukraine is caught in a vice between an increasingly desperate Russian leader who is using tactics now which are causing even more suffering to Ukrainian civilians. [23:28] I've spent a few nights in hotels when power goes out in southern Ukraine, and you're acutely aware then what they're going through. [23:35] And particularly as winter approaches. [23:36] Gillian, it's interesting, the former ambassador name-checking Boris Johnson, this is support for Ukraine is something that really cuts across party lines here in the UK, doesn't it? [23:45] It does. [23:45] But my worry is what's going to happen in some of the European elections that are coming down the line next year. [23:52] Because some of the parties, opposition parties in some countries, in some major countries in Europe, have said that they would stand on a ticket to reduce the support in Ukraine, or even reverse the position on support in Ukraine. [24:07] So not only have you got Trump, you know, these people have been on the front line of this for nearly five years. [24:13] Yeah. [24:13] And not only have you got, and they've been extremely innovative and extremely brave, and obviously have taken a lot of civilian losses as well. [24:20] But not only have you got Trump sort of going hot and cold every sort of so often, depending on his internal politics, you've also got, and luckily we have not been like this in the UK from the moment Boris Johnson said very clearly, and he took a leadership position across the whole of Europe, people followed. [24:38] But I do fear what could happen if some other parties gain control in some other European countries. [24:44] And that is something that we need to bring this to a head, because that could also destabilise things in Europe. [24:52] Very good. Yeah, very good point. [24:53] Much more to come, but Zelensky's visit is sure to feature heavily on our late-night programme, The Wrap, tonight from 10pm. [24:59] Here to discuss all of today's big stories and the best of tomorrow's papers will be the Financial Times' Whitehall editor Lucy Fisher and political commentator Adam Bolton. [25:08] And those images in Downing Street will be on a lot of the front pages tomorrow, I'm sure of that. [25:14] Coming up after the break, we're talking Brexit next. [25:18] I'll be joined by a man who knows all too well the challenges of dealing with Europe, former EU Relations Minister Nick Thomas-Simmons. [25:25] Stay with us. [25:30] Well, now this week, Brexit and UK and EU relations are firmly back on the agenda. [25:34] As Andy Burnham announced, he wants a new, closer deal with the EU in time for a big summit in Brussels in November. [25:40] Now, one man who knows all about negotiating with Europe is the former EU Relations Minister Nick Thomas-Simmons, who joins me now. [25:47] Nick, great to have you on the sofa. [25:49] I'm going to come to Brexit in just a minute. [25:50] I just want to finish up, we've been talking about Ukraine this show, and obviously support for Ukraine is something that unites Keir Starmer, [25:57] who was your friend and the former Prime Minister, with Andy Burnham. [26:00] Do you think Burnham can do any better than Keir Starmer did, building bridges between Donald Trump and Zelensky? [26:07] Well, look, he certainly has to do that. [26:10] And I think this is an area where there is continuity. [26:12] And in fairness, in terms of the bipartisan approach to Ukraine, it goes back even further than that, actually. [26:17] Yeah, we reflect on that. [26:18] Because Keir Starmer did support the position that was taken by the then Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, back in 2022. [26:23] And I think that bipartisan approach, by the way, is really, really important. [26:26] It's not about, you know, one Prime Minister is more skilful than the other. [26:29] It really is about showing that continuity and strength across the political system. [26:33] And I would say on this, too, that we are going through a very difficult period now with the winter in Ukraine. [26:39] And one of the things I was proud to do as EU Relations Minister was to have negotiated the UK's participation in the Ukraine loan scheme. [26:47] And that is a big €90 billion scheme, significant military element. [26:50] Now, with that money available, available where companies can bid for contracts, what we've got to make sure now is that that money, that funding is translated into military support for Ukraine on the front line. [27:04] I think pushing that forward now is crucial. [27:05] Yeah, and, you know, there was a package of military support announced today by Andy Burnham. [27:10] But, you know, he hasn't, when you look at what's happening, you know, in Europe, this war now going into its fifth year, you know, Andy Burnham still hasn't committed to that 3% of GDP by 2030. [27:23] Over the summer, you wrote a very interesting article citing increased defence spending as one of Keir Starmer's legacies. [27:29] Are you worried that Andy Burnham's not building on that? [27:31] No, everything I've heard from Andy Burnham is about the commitment to the 3.5% that we have to do with NATO by 2035. [27:41] But, you know, what John Healey has said, what Andy Burnham has said is a real commitment to that increased defence spending. [27:46] So I expect to continue to see that. [27:48] And again, there is wide agreement. [27:50] But we're being told it won't be until a year's time, potentially. [27:52] Well, let's see what happens over the next few weeks. [27:54] Let's see what the budget says. [27:55] But there's no doubt that that increase in defence spending is required. [27:58] It's a very dangerous world, I'm afraid, we now find ourselves in. [28:01] But does it not surprise you that the now Chancellor who quit Keir Starmer's government as Defence Secretary over defence spending hasn't felt able to commit to that 3% already? [28:11] Well, give him a chance to deliver it, I think. [28:13] He's only been in office a few months. [28:15] And, I mean, John set out his views very clearly on this, was very committed to the additional defence spending. [28:20] It's got very quiet, though, hasn't it? [28:22] Well, look, let's just see what is actually delivered. [28:25] But, I mean, what I've heard is certainly continuation in terms of that increased defence spending. [28:29] As I say, it's absolutely vital that that happens. [28:31] OK. All right. [28:32] Well, you led the reset negotiations with the EU. [28:36] Andy Burnham's going further, actually, you know, floating all sorts of options, including rejoining the EU. [28:40] Do you support that? [28:41] I certainly support this debate about the future options, because one thing is certain, the status quo that we have is not working for businesses, it's not working for households. [28:50] Now, first of all, delivering the summit on the 20th of November is crucial. [28:55] And Andy Burnham was very generous to me in the House of Commons this week, talking about a deal that he's inherited. [29:00] And, of course, it has in it opportunities for young people to work and to study and to travel. [29:06] It will have in it what emissions trading system link is, so being part of a bigger carbon market, meaning hundreds of millions of pounds in tax will not be levied on UK companies. [29:15] And also a food and drink agreement to make trade easier to bear down on costs in the supermarket. [29:20] So there's a lot there now that can be delivered. [29:22] But then we are right, I think, to have this debate about what we want the relationship to be. [29:27] But I would also say this, it has to be a debate that's built in facts. [29:31] I mean, I'm hearing at the moment lots of speculation about what the EU might or might not want for different options. [29:36] What we need is coming out of the summit then a serious body of work, looking at the different options, but actually being honest and frank about what the trade-offs involve. [29:44] Right, well, you called it a debate. [29:46] You talk about facts. [29:47] I want to play you a clip, actually, of Emily Thornberry, who was the chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee. [29:52] She was on the sofa this week. [29:53] And I asked her about, you know, the Brexit wars and, you know, was it a problem to reopen all the kind of rancour and division. [29:59] Let's have a look at what she said. [30:01] I was saying having the debate is divisive and uncomfortable. [30:04] But you're like, well, get over it. [30:05] Yeah, get over it. [30:06] I mean, we're going to have to debate it. [30:08] I mean, I hope it's in the next manifesto. [30:11] And, you know, one of the reasons why people should vote Labour next time. [30:14] Yeah, because you've said you don't think there needs to be another referendum. [30:16] But you're quite a minority. [30:18] Most people think there does have... [30:19] Well, yeah, I know. [30:19] Well, there we are. [30:20] Can you justify that, though? [30:21] Um, well, we need to have a democratic decision. [30:25] So we ought to be putting it somehow. [30:29] I don't think we need to have another referendum. [30:30] But what we can do is have it in the manifesto. [30:32] And then people can have a choice. [30:34] Do they want to have this current, you know, relationship with the European Union? [30:38] Or do they want to be back in the EU? [30:40] If that's what our policy is, that's what I would say. [30:42] I would say, let's not bother with another referendum. [30:45] Let's just have it as a general election. [30:47] The clip's gone really viral and people lambasting her for this idea you don't need another referendum. [30:54] What's your view? [30:55] Well, to the first point that Emily is making about the debate, look, there's always going to be a debate on our relationship with Europe. [31:00] And, indeed, it's not a static relationship. [31:02] The EU's Made in Europe agenda, which is all about, of course, where goods are made, mean that whatever the UK government's policy was, [31:09] you would be in a negotiation with the EU. [31:11] So that will happen anyway. [31:12] Look, on the point about a referendum, I mean, the entry into the EEC on 1st of January 1973 came about after a general election. [31:20] But it was confirmed in a referendum in 1975. [31:24] Similarly, we left what became the EU by referendum in 2016. [31:27] So the precedent is a referendum. [31:29] The other thing I would just say as well is that I think in terms of accession talks, if we were to go down this particular route, [31:37] I think you do have to have something that entrenches the decision. [31:41] I think if you were looking at rejoining through a general election, but then it can be overturned by a subsequent general election, [31:48] I think the incentives on the EU to engage in accession talks in a deep way then are significantly reduced. [31:54] So I think on that, I think that the precedent is a referendum. [31:57] However, that isn't to say, as I was doing, that you can't get a mandate from the electorate through a general election for a significantly closer relationship. [32:07] Now, I was carrying out the mandate we had from the 2024 general election. [32:11] Things like the trade in food and drink, that was in our manifesto. [32:15] That's what I was delivering. [32:17] There are other things in the manifesto we need to deliver as well. [32:19] So certainly in terms of a significant change in this relationship and a closer relationship, [32:24] you can absolutely get a mandate for that through the manifesto. [32:26] And how close to a proper comprehensive deal were you on all sorts of things? [32:30] Because I know there are disagreements on the youth mobility scheme and also the EU wanted lower university tuition fees, [32:36] didn't they, for their undergraduate studying at UK universities, not undergraduate studying at UK universities. [32:41] You know, how close were you on those stomachs? [32:42] Well, we were over 90% there. [32:44] And remember that the summit was originally meant to be in May. [32:47] I had then agreed a date of the 22nd of July. [32:50] And obviously political events meant it didn't take place. [32:52] So we were very close to delivering the summit. [32:55] But always... [32:56] So Andy Burnham hasn't got much more to do. [32:58] You've done the heavy lifting, right? [32:59] My experience of the final weeks of these negotiations are, believe me, they are the most intense. [33:05] And I think the next four or five weeks, there'll certainly be a lot of heavy lifting to do. [33:10] I found the same when we made that agreement in May of last year. [33:13] I remember very, very late in the Cabinet Office negotiating the details of that deal. [33:17] But of course, I wish everybody well in getting this over the line. [33:19] And I think that what is there is going to make a significant difference, you know, in terms of things we can do in securing our borders, in terms of creating jobs, a deal that's good for growth. [33:31] As Andy Burnham said, it's there on the table that sees it. [33:33] So what's your advice to Andy Burnham on how to break that impasse on youth mobility and the tuition fees? [33:39] Focus absolutely on the negotiating room. [33:42] Focus in terms of what is being said to you across the table. [33:46] Negotiate in that way. [33:47] And do your very best sometimes. [33:49] There's a lot of sound and fury and noise that goes on outside. [33:53] Try your best to blank that out and absolutely focus on the negotiation in the room. [33:57] Right. [33:58] Let me just ask you about Andy Burnham's administration more broadly. [34:02] Because I was seeing a minister today who said, you know, where's the vision? [34:06] There's a lot of impatience within government about, you know, the idea that there's a lot of vibes, but actually where's the nuts and bolts behind it? [34:12] People were making that criticism of Keir Starmer. [34:15] Where's the vision? [34:16] Has anything changed? [34:16] Well, I don't think anyone who watched Andy Burnham's conference speech could say he didn't set out a vision and set out what motivates him and what his government's seeking to do. [34:24] But it's some way off in the future is what's being said to me. [34:26] And he's also set out, you know, very difficult issues that we do need to deal with as a country. [34:32] Social care is a classic example. [34:33] But also the issue we've been discussing around what we want our long-term relationship with the European Union to be. [34:39] So Andy's been completely unafraid to open up debates on issues that have been very, very difficult in UK politics. [34:45] But they're a long way down the track. [34:46] It's like, you know, you've had two years already. [34:49] What are you doing right now to make changes in people's lives? [34:52] Oh, well, we've seen things that Andy has done in the early weeks on cost of living. [34:56] We've seen the VAT off electricity bills, for example. [34:59] But also things he's been announcing. [35:01] But also the previous two years of the Labour government, the significant investment, for example, [35:07] that we've put into our National Health Service, which is making a difference. [35:11] On the EU, the work that's been done to deliver that future relationship. [35:16] So there's very significant foundations that were built. [35:18] But just say this as well. [35:20] On something like social care and on the EU, these things do take time. [35:23] They are painstaking. [35:25] If they were simple, they would have been solved long ago. [35:29] So we do have to give that time to him as well. [35:31] OK, so in the near future, a lot rests on the budget. [35:33] What would you say in terms of avoiding some of the pitfalls of, you know, [35:37] the administration that you were a part of in terms of tax rises? [35:41] You know, does John Healy have to take the hard decisions on cutting spending [35:44] to avoid another Rachel Reeves-style tax rise? [35:48] Well, the comparison I would be avoiding is not so much the solid economic foundations [35:53] built over the past two years, but the 2022 mini-budget. [35:57] First and foremost, you have to have economic stability. [36:01] And I've seen John Healy has been saying that he and the Prime Minister [36:04] are in lockstep on the fiscal rules. [36:06] And that has to be the starting point, because without that, [36:09] you cannot do any of the other things. [36:12] And working families up and down the country pay the price. [36:15] And that's what's happened. [36:16] But that means tackling welfare, making a hard decision on welfare, doesn't it? [36:19] It does mean, and this is what Pat McFadden has been talking about, [36:24] dealing with this issue where by the end of the decade, [36:26] we could have a situation of a million young people [36:29] who are not in employment, education and trade. [36:31] Now, Alan Milburn has published his interim report on this. [36:34] There will obviously be a final report that he will publish. [36:37] And tackling that, by the way, we talk about that as a difficult decision. [36:40] That is a progressive cause, giving young people the chance to succeed in life [36:45] in the way that previous generations did. [36:47] We absolutely should be at the forefront of that. [36:49] Do you wish that Keir Starmer had held his nerve on welfare cuts? [36:52] Look, I think there are lessons to be learnt from that episode on welfare [36:57] in terms of, you know, how it was framed, frankly, [37:00] and how we ended up in a position where we were, in essence, [37:04] managing that vote in the final day. [37:06] So I think the lesson to take from that is to do this [37:09] and make the argument over a period of time. [37:11] And I think that the Alan Milburn report, [37:14] you know, Alan himself has been speaking out on this as well, [37:17] does signal the approach that will now be taken. [37:19] You were rather unceremoniously dumped by Andy Burnham. [37:23] That's one way to put it, Keir. [37:24] Yeah, well, sacked. [37:26] How did you find out? [37:28] Well, I was telephoned directly by Andy [37:31] and told that, obviously, you know, there's always a limit to a number of places. [37:35] And Prime Ministers always want to have their own team. [37:37] And when you're in government, [37:39] and I was very privileged to have served in Cabinet, [37:41] very privileged to have had the opportunity to deliver [37:43] not just the EU relationship we've been talking about, [37:46] but, you know, nearly £3 billion worth of offers [37:48] on the infected blood compensation scheme, [37:50] the work I did on any of the hereditary principle in the House of Lords. [37:54] These are things I'm very proud to have achieved. [37:56] But you only serve at the pleasure of the Prime Minister of the day, [37:59] and it's always up to them if they want their own team. [38:01] Did you say all of this to him? [38:03] We had a perfectly reasonable discussion. [38:06] I've known Andy Burnham for 20 years. [38:08] Was he awkward sacking you? [38:09] Because, I mean, it's not something he's done very much of, is it? [38:11] Not particularly. We had a perfectly friendly discussion. [38:14] I think we always understand it's that the Prime Ministers [38:16] have picked their own team. [38:17] Finally, have you spoken to Keir Starmer? How's he doing? [38:19] I have spoken to Keir, yes. [38:22] And I think he's very much moving on now to the next phase of his life. [38:25] But I can tell you this, [38:26] he is absolutely committed to this Labour government [38:30] winning a second term in office, as are all of us. [38:32] Right. And early election? [38:34] What are the odds? [38:35] Do you know, it's the loneliest decision [38:37] for any Prime Minister to take, isn't it? [38:39] To make sure you get the timing of the election right. [38:44] And you think there's so many... [38:45] You were talking about Leeds in the past. [38:47] I mean, I think Jim Callaghan, [38:48] who should have called an election in 1978, [38:51] didn't and ended up losing. [38:53] Theresa May, who had a very significant poll lead, [38:55] who did choose to go early [38:57] and ended up losing her majority. [38:59] So these are very, very finely balanced decisions [39:02] for the Prime Minister to make. [39:03] But does he use his own mandate, Andy Burnham? [39:04] No, we live in a parliamentary democracy. [39:05] His mandate comes from having a majority [39:09] of the members of Parliament [39:10] to give confidence to his leadership. [39:12] He doesn't need to hold an election until 2029. [39:16] Indeed, he has ruled out an early election himself. [39:18] Let me bring in the sofa duo. [39:20] Fangham, I know you don't think there will be an election, [39:23] but lots of people are talking about it. [39:24] May keeps on getting mentioned to me. [39:26] Lots of people keep on talking about it, [39:28] and I think lots of people probably will keep on talking about it, [39:31] because apart from anything else, [39:33] if you are a Member of Parliament, [39:34] then it's one of the things you have to plan for. [39:36] You have to be ready for there to be a general election. [39:39] It won't be that Andy rings up every one of the Labour MPs [39:42] and says, what do you think? [39:44] But also, you know, Andy's got to make that decision [39:46] in the interests of the country. [39:48] And it's a lonely decision, as Nick was saying. [39:50] I think that is a lonely decision, [39:52] because you've got to make so many fine calculations. [39:56] I agree with Nick. [39:57] I think that we have a mandate from the country as the Labour Party. [40:01] I'm incredibly proud to have campaigned to get a Labour government. [40:04] It's what we set out to do as Labour MPs and Labour candidates. [40:07] That's what we've got. [40:08] We've got plenty to do. [40:09] We've already achieved a great deal in two years. [40:11] There's a lot more to do. [40:12] And I hope, but I wouldn't presume to speak for Andy, obviously, [40:16] but I hope that what we do is keep going, [40:18] because Labour governments, I'm sad to say, [40:21] Gillian may feel differently, [40:22] don't come around often enough for us, do they Nick? [40:24] For good reason. [40:25] For good reason. [40:26] We want to make the most of it. [40:27] And we've got a lot to do with a lot of damage to repair. [40:29] They normally come when we've got more cash. [40:31] A lot of damage to repair. [40:31] The problem is, when we haven't got any cash [40:34] and you get a Labour government, [40:35] that is the issue with the economy. [40:37] And the reason everyone's speculating about this now [40:39] is because his whole conference speech was about 2030. [40:43] He's put off all of the big decisions [40:46] in the spending review to sometime next year. [40:49] He's having a budget which apparently is going to be low-key [40:51] whenever there's lots of things need to be done. [40:53] And now he's setting hairs running [40:56] either about his views of the bond markets [40:58] or his views of Europe. [41:00] And everyone's thinking, what on earth are you doing? [41:02] We've seen this movie before, Gillian. [41:04] We saw this movie in 22. [41:06] Distraction techniques. [41:07] Let the portion up all. [41:09] Sorry. [41:09] But you see, this is the issue, though, isn't it? [41:11] Because the previous criticism was, [41:13] oh, well, politicians are all too scripted, right? [41:15] So if you then have somebody who communicates [41:17] in a much more authentic way, [41:18] then the opposite criticism is going to be made [41:20] if they, you know, occasionally misspeak. [41:22] But I actually think for Andy, [41:24] he's taken that very authentic form of communication [41:26] that he had as the Mayor of Greater Manchester [41:28] and has just taken it into Downing Street. [41:30] And I think that authenticity is important. [41:32] Well, Nick, you clearly don't bear a grudge. [41:34] Thank you very much for coming on the sofa and telling us. [41:36] Thank you. [41:37] Thank you. [41:37] We are going to be talking about the Green Party next [41:40] as Burnham rules out doing a deal with them in future. [41:44] Can I condemn the motion that was passed unequivocally? [41:49] It is wrong. [41:51] It is anti-Semitic. [41:52] And this side of the house will have nothing to do with it. [41:57] Well, it's been a rocky couple of weeks or so [42:04] for the Green Party after it adopted a motion saying that [42:07] Zionism is racism at its party conference in Brighton. [42:11] That led to criticism from Jewish groups as well as two former party leaders [42:15] and four Green MPs. [42:17] Today, Andy Burnham was asked about it at Prime Minister's Questions [42:20] and appeared to suggest it was a red line for him [42:23] and that the Labour Party wouldn't be able to cooperate with the Greens [42:26] because of it in future. [42:28] Let's take a listen. [42:30] Mr Speaker, can I condemn the motion that was passed unequivocally? [42:35] It is wrong, it is anti-Semitic [42:38] and this side of the house will have nothing to do with it [42:43] and we will always take the right response [42:47] when it comes to any partnerships we have with other parties. [42:50] We cannot support a partnership with a party [42:52] that holds a position that has recently been adopted. [42:58] Well, Thangham and Gillian are still here. [43:00] I mean, Thangham, I know this whole thing is very close to your heart [43:03] because, you know, you would have won your seat were it not [43:05] for a green sort of surge. [43:08] How do you view all this? [43:10] I think what's important about that motion is not only the title, [43:15] it's in the middle of it, which it effectively calls [43:19] for the removal of Israel, which is a sovereign nation, [43:21] our only democratic ally in the Middle East. [43:23] And that's not the sort of thing a political party, [43:26] a serious political party, should be doing. [43:27] Whatever their views on Zionism, in that motion, [43:30] it says that there should be only a one-state solution, [43:33] which even the Palestinian Authority isn't asking for, [43:36] and that that state should be Palestine. [43:39] Where does Israel go? [43:40] So that's the biggest problem, I think, [43:42] is that a political party that aspires to, [43:45] and I presume they aspire to government, [43:47] should not be effectively calling for the destruction of a state. [43:52] Yeah, and Zach Polanski was asked about this, [43:53] and, you know, I interviewed former Green leader Natalie Bennett [43:56] about it as well and asked if they thought Israel had a right to exist. [43:59] And neither of them could say that, which was astonishing, wasn't it? [44:02] And I think what was really in marked contrast [44:05] to their previous leader, Caroline Lucas, [44:07] who I salute for this, who said quite rightly, [44:11] and I said something similar on Thursday night, [44:13] and I'm sitting, not quite on the sofa, [44:15] but here in Sky News, doing the election coverage, [44:18] the state of Israel was founded not without controversy, [44:22] I understand that, but after the Holocaust, [44:24] and 2,000 years of pogroms, slaughter, [44:27] and persecution of the Jewish people, [44:29] the Holocaust was one of the single greatest acts of racism ever known, [44:33] and to fail to understand that context [44:36] is really reprehensible and irresponsible. [44:39] So Andy Burnham really had no choice but to call out a partnership? [44:41] I think Andy Burnham did the right thing. [44:44] Right. [44:44] You cannot go into a political partnership with a party [44:46] that is effectively calling for the destruction of a state, [44:49] which is the only sovereign nation we have an alliance with. [44:51] But he did give himself some wiggle room, [44:53] because if they ditch this policy, obviously, then it's game on. [44:55] I don't think he said that, but let's see what happens next. [44:57] That was the clear implication. [44:59] Let's see what happens next. [45:00] Gillian. [45:00] I completely agree with everything Thangum just said. [45:02] It blows my mind that Zak Polanski is the leader of this party [45:07] and has completely ducked leadership [45:09] and got himself into a whole heap of trouble [45:12] because he didn't face down what were actually quite a smallish number [45:15] of people who were doing what, as Thangum said, [45:20] is completely outrageous [45:22] and actually impacts the lives of British Jews. [45:26] So it's beyond the pale. [45:27] Let me just put to you what he said today after the Prime Minister spoke. [45:30] You know, he is himself Jewish, obviously. [45:31] He says he's a victim of anti-Semitism every day [45:34] and he's made it clear that Jewish people are welcome in the Greens. [45:37] And he accused Andy Burnham of, and I quote him, [45:41] arming a genocide and locking up pensioners who oppose it. [45:45] Outrageous. [45:46] Outrageous. [45:46] And has he not read his own motion that his party had passed? [45:51] Literally. [45:52] Did you not ask him that? [45:53] Because how can he say that? [45:54] As well, our statement, Gillian, just to be clear. [45:56] Yeah. [45:56] I wasn't interviewing, but yeah. [45:58] But, OK, right. [45:59] But, you know, they passed this motion [46:01] and it's outrageous that that motion was actually even put to the conference, [46:06] let alone passed it. [46:06] And he should have gone and faced it down. [46:09] And that's what leadership is. [46:11] And actually, I think he's got probably a lot of those people [46:15] that actually probably follow Corbyn. [46:16] He's probably got a lot of them in his party. [46:19] What's happening in Gaza is causing real anger. [46:22] He can do nothing about it. [46:24] Let's be honest. [46:24] His motion doesn't change a single life in Gaza. [46:27] Well, in his view, he could say, you know, [46:28] the British state could stop arming Israel, is what he said. [46:31] Well, he would and he has. [46:33] And he has incorrectly, and certainly his colleagues have, [46:35] I was with one in the studio last week, [46:38] said incorrectly that Britain has done nothing, [46:41] that the Labour Party has done nothing, [46:42] which is simply not true. [46:44] I mean, under Keir Starmer, [46:45] we had sanctioned Israeli politicians, [46:47] including Ben Gavir and Smotrich. [46:49] We had imposed arms restrictions so that we're not selling [46:53] and we haven't been selling any arms that could be used in Gaza. [46:56] This stuff that's being said... [46:57] We were never selling arms to Gaza. [46:58] We just weren't. [46:59] No. [47:00] We used in Gaza. [47:01] It's just not true. [47:02] You know yourself the fury that what's happening in Gaza has [47:06] and Israel's conduct there has caused, [47:09] particularly among younger people. [47:11] Yes. [47:12] And I would say, which I absolutely understand, [47:15] and I think if what we want to do is solve the situation in Gaza, [47:19] so we have to think about what's going to help with that, [47:21] not just an easy slogan that sounds great but achieves absolutely nothing. [47:27] We have to deal with the world as it is. [47:29] If they want, and I would agree with this, [47:31] what you want is a change of leader in Israel. [47:33] I think if you want to hold the government of Israel, [47:36] and particularly Prime Minister Netanyahu, [47:37] responsible for his decisions and his actions, [47:40] the Israelis will go to the country. [47:41] They will have an election in the next couple of weeks. [47:43] They get to decide that. [47:45] I think it actually, a commentary by a fringe political party [47:49] at this time is not helpful at all. [47:51] Particularly one that actually removes the only thing [47:54] everybody agrees on, which is the eventual solution, [47:56] which is a two-state solution. [47:58] And that removes the possibility of it. [48:00] And it's outrageous. [48:02] And actually, they should be ashamed. [48:04] And their sister Green parties in Europe [48:06] have been saying the same thing as us. [48:07] Yes. [48:08] They have been condemned by their sister parties. [48:11] And many of the normal Green MPs, [48:13] and, as you say, Caroline Lucas, [48:14] who was the leader of the party. [48:16] They're on the right side of it. [48:17] He's on the wrong side of it. [48:19] And, you know, he can say he's Jewish as much as he wants. [48:23] It's outrageous. [48:24] His lack of leadership is causing real issue for British Jews. [48:28] And there's a massive split within the party that much, [48:30] it's very clear, isn't it? [48:31] And apparently they're trying to get rid of Caroline Lucas. [48:33] I mean, that's a discussion which is extraordinary. [48:36] Thank you both very much for joining us. [48:38] But before we go tonight, [48:39] it is one of the true Westminster institutions, [48:42] Rules in Covent Garden, [48:44] and it's been donated to the National Trust. [48:46] Now, Rules opened over 220 years ago [48:49] and is widely considered as London's oldest restaurant. [48:53] It's seen and likely served 10 monarchs [48:56] and 40 prime ministers. [48:58] It's also hosted the likes of Charles Dickens, [49:00] Charlie Chaplin and H.G. Wells. [49:02] And it has now been confirmed [49:03] that thanks to the National Trust, [49:06] it will continue for a long time to come. [49:09] Well, that's it for tonight. [49:11] I'm off for a few days, as I said. [49:12] Ali Fortescue will be in the chair tomorrow for me. [49:15] Thank you very much to our sofa duo. [49:17] I'll see you when I get back. [49:18] The world is up next. [49:19] Good evening.