Brooks and Capehart on the tradeoffs of a possible U.S.-Iran deal

[0:00] another political fight in congress a mixed martial arts fight at the white house and a [0:05] potential deal to end the fighting with iran time now for the analysis of brooks and capehart that's [0:11] the atlantic's david brooks and jonathan capehart of ms now it's always good to see you both so the [0:16] white house says it's increasingly confident that a deal with iran is within reach david what should [0:22] americans make of the administration's stated confidence well this is somebody counted this [0:27] the 40th time donald trump has said we're very confident so 40 is a good biblical number so maybe [0:32] maybe it's true um you know it's it's too soon to really know how this all turns out but i think [0:37] you can say some things one uh the iranian military is degraded so that's a plus two the straits of [0:44] hormuz will be in worse shape before after this action than before before it was an open waterway [0:49] now it's an iranian and omanian lake uh three the the it seems extremely unlikely to me despite what [0:56] the administration is saying that iran is going to want to give up or is going to be willing to give [1:00] up their nuclear power this has been a core of their whole regime for decades or that they will [1:04] give up supporting hamas and hezbollah this has been a core and so unless they're really an economic [1:10] struggle uh worse than we think and they're going to be moved by that trouble then i'm a little [1:16] dubious i think we'll end up significantly worse off than before the war one of the final point [1:21] all these bombs got dropped what actually pressures each side in each case it was an economic [1:27] sanction it was iranians closing the strait and us imposing a blockade and sanctions before that [1:32] so it was actually economic pressure that moved people not all these bombs that got dropped and [1:37] that should be a lesson for leaders going forward and jonathan i mean is there a broader lesson here [1:41] about american foreign policy that no matter who occupies the white house presidents discover that [1:47] the bargain with iran is ultimately always the same it's constraints on its nuclear program in [1:53] exchange for economic relief and that's what we had as the united states with the jcpoa which [2:00] president trump ripped up and is now trying to get a jcpoa like agreement at february march april may [2:08] june four months into a war he started um with benjamin netanyahu they got to the jcpoa not through [2:18] you know two people zooming into a capital and then leaving and saying we've got a deal [2:24] they got the jcpoa by hunkering down in switzerland every day for years switzerland and other places [2:32] for years across from their counterparts and interlocutors with other nations involved [2:36] to hammer out that deal we have seen nothing like that whatsoever when it comes to bringing [2:43] about a resolution to this current war with iran david what's the bigger risk for president trump [2:48] arriving in a deal that basically mirrors the obama era iran deal or or failing to negotiate a deal [2:54] after promising that he could do something better find something better well i wasn't a fan of the [2:59] obama deal by the way i think it's sunsetted too soon so making it a little unreliable but the danger [3:04] for president trump is that we walk away with face covering so we don't admit that we lost the war [3:12] but we lost the war and everybody in the region knows we lost the war and everybody in america knows [3:16] we lost the war and everybody around the world knows knows we lost the war and that hurts american [3:21] prestige and it will hurt american interest long term we have seen examples recently of republicans [3:27] breaking with president trump whether the anti-weaponization fund uh to the fight over the fisa [3:33] section 702 this is a warrantless surveillance tool over his selection of bill pilty as the acting [3:40] director of national intelligence are these isolated disputes jonathan or are we starting to see a [3:45] republican party that feels more comfortable challenging the president i mean yes and no um i'm [3:54] loathe to say we've reached a pivot point like this is the moment we don't know i think we'll know as as [4:00] time goes on but as we get more of these things like this like the rising up against polty um like [4:08] bringing down the the fisa law um that republicans are finding their courage we should also keep [4:15] in mind that a lot of them are finding their courage because they've been primaried and lost they're [4:20] retiring um or their primaries have not happened yet and so they're like keeping their powder dry but each [4:28] time they take a stand against the president uh i think for once claws back some you know congressional [4:36] authority as a co-equal branch co-equal branch of government one of the republicans who was [4:41] primaried and lost is john cornyn and in an interview with the new york times he predicted that the two [4:46] years after the november midterms will be the most miserable two years of president trump's life he says [4:51] he's going to have the most miserable two years of his life in the last two years of his term i think [4:55] because i think november is going to be a disaster historically dissent inside the megaverse has been [5:03] short-lived do you see that changing a little i was thinking when i read that quote that uh [5:08] it'll be miserable for him but it won't be as miserable as for us uh you know the um i do think [5:14] there is some sort of leakage here i wouldn't say it's a a turnaround but there's been some sort of [5:20] leakage the the trump thing is just weird i mean he's just weird like he he points bill pulte who's [5:26] clearly not even close within the pacific ocean of being qualified for this job and then he turns around [5:31] and uh to make the permanent acting direct not acting but the permanent director of dni uh jake [5:39] uh clayton uh who's totally like superstar level for trump by trump standards so how does the same guy [5:45] pick two people one with such radically different qualifications the one thing i i should add is that [5:52] i don't like what the democrats are doing here i understand you don't like bill pulte i don't i [5:55] understand you think he should not have been appointed and that you're absolutely 100 correct [5:59] but the fisa program works well we are now as speaker johnson made the point we're now we've [6:06] got the world cup here we got the iranian thing going on we need all the intelligence i can get [6:11] and that fisa program supplies i'm told half the president's daily intelligence brief that's a lot [6:17] of information and valuable information it's a very well working program and the democrats are not [6:22] repeal or not we're doing it sort of in my view out of spite but they're making us less safe [6:26] um john how this became the democrats fault is is curious to me um one a couple things to to keep [6:35] in mind one even though the law has expired it was reauthorized by a fisa court in march of 26 this past [6:44] march which goes through march of 27 so congress has time to come back and um reauthorize it do whatever [6:51] they need to do because it's not just democrats who have concerns about the law it's republicans as [6:56] well so i just don't think it's right to say it's all the democrats fault especially when they're not [7:02] even in the majority in either house in the time that remains david do your sunday night plans involve [7:07] being at the white house for a ufc match by chance well i'm actually active participant i'm gonna be [7:13] fighting uh with jonathan it'll be like that i would like to see could you imagine yeah but what do you [7:20] what do you make of this well i first thought of like who are the artists john f kennedy brought to [7:24] the white house it was like wh auden robert frost jerome robbins leonard bernstein and now we've got [7:33] cage fighting don't anybody say america's in cultural decline so i just thought well look yeah to your [7:40] point presidents have traditionally sought validation from established cultural institutions and artists as [7:47] i'm saying this i'm looking at the what people have called the claw on the on the south lawn president [7:53] trump has created this alternative cultural establishment around combat sports and podcasts [7:59] and influencers and social media stars how significant is that shift and what does it suggest well it's a [8:05] significant shift because it's the president of the united states who's anointing it whenever a president [8:10] um invites someone from the culture into the white house it's giving the the imprimatur of the [8:17] president you know excuse me president obama brought in lin um manuel to to do what then became [8:25] um hamilton so there you know you're talking about auden and now you got lim i cannot remember [8:32] his name miranda because i'm so close to calling him noriega and i know that is not right but this [8:38] uh cage fight on the south lawn of the white house the people's house that also has corporate [8:46] sponsorship um that you can see inside the ring this talk about degrading the culture this is degrading [8:56] degrading the white house degrading the people's house and i it's just unconscionable that this is [9:01] happening part of me thinks though that there were there were people who said that about obama when he had [9:06] you know rappers in the east room right i mean it's just is are we just in a different time a [9:11] different he wants us to be talking this way because he's saying look you you get looked down upon [9:16] by people i believe in right cage fighting just like you yeah final word no we are out of time and [9:23] i'm we don't have enough time for me to thunder righteous indignation about all this we'll pick it up [9:28] on your sub stack yes jonathan capehart david brooks thank you both thank you support journalism you [9:43] trust support pbs news donate now or even better start a monthly contribution today