Bill Gates and the Quest for Sustainable Energy

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: The world is going to consume almost twice as much energy 30 years from now as it does today. Climate change is coming, and so we need to actually innovate ahead of that, the negative effects. We need innovation that gives us energy that's cheaper than today's hydrocarbon energy, that has zero CO2 emission and is as reliable as today's overall energy system. And it's when you put all those requirements in there, you go, wow, that we need an energy miracle. Now, that may make it seem too daunting to people, but miracles in science, miracles are happening all the time. [00:00:52] Speaker 2: So what you're essentially looking to do is for the civilization to skip a step, move forward and accelerate the transition, move beyond natural gas to other carbon neutral forms of energy. Is there, have we ever done something that big as a species before? [00:01:09] Speaker 1: Well, sort of no, because the scale of it's very big. It's unprecedented to move this quickly to change a infrastructure of this scale. Almost everything that's been invented in energy was invented more than 20 years before it got scaled usage. There's this guy Parsons, who nobody knows, who took us from the steam engine to the turbine, steam turbine, which is 1890, this unbelievable advance. Wasn't used significantly in his lifetime. There's this guy in diesel, vents the diesel engine, a brilliant idea, doesn't catch on, he commits suicide, jumps off a boat. Now, later, it catches on. In the case of climate change, because there's so many possible solutions, it's not like the Manhattan Project where we're saying, I don't think anyone's saying, hey, pick just one approach and pick some ranch in New Mexico and just have those guys kind of hang out there. Here, we want to give a little bit of money to the wild-eyed guy who thinks the high wind will work. We want to give a little bit of money to the guy who thinks taking sunlight and making oil directly out of sunlight will work. That's the kind of thing that we should be funding more of. [00:02:35] Speaker 2: Talk a little bit more about some of the technologies you're most excited about, where you see the greatest potential for a really kind of game-changing breakthrough. [00:02:43] Speaker 1: Well, if you talk to most people, they, I think, expect that wind plus solar photovoltaic, solar PV, solar electric, isn't that going to eventually come and solve this problem? Now, unfortunately, solar PV is still non-economic, but the biggest problem of all is this intermittency. That is, we need energy 24 hours a day. If somebody is freezing to death in their apartment, we want energy now. We can't say, hey, wait a few days. The primary new zero CO2 sources are intermittent. Nuclear is a non-CO2 source, but it's had its own problems in terms of costs, you know, big safety problems, making sure that you can deal with the waste, making sure that the plutonium isn't used to make weapons. I personally, I think we should continue those things, but I think there's many other things, including trying to get rid of nuclear problems, including the solar chemical approach, including high wind. [00:03:55] Speaker 2: So you've been speaking to governments around the world and to private investors, and what are you asking for? [00:04:01] Speaker 1: Well, my basic message is, let's be realistic about how we're going to get to the 2050 goal. I feel like there's been all this discussion about the 2030, the near-term end goal, which is good, but there are things that have such long lead times, including innovation itself, that if they're part of your 2050 solution, you have to get started now. The rate of innovation should be more than doubled, and the government R&D budgets and private high-risk-taking investments are a necessary part of doubling that speed. I'm a big believer in foreign aid, but the climate problem has to be solved in the rich countries. China and the U.S. and Europe have to solve CO2 emissions, and when they do, hopefully they'll make it cheap enough for everyone else. [00:04:56] Speaker ?: you