AOC 2028: could she be the first female US president? — Politics Weekly America

[0:03] The Democrats' progressive wing is certainly having a moment, some of it good, some of [0:19] it not so good. [0:21] I have faced some very serious allegations. [0:24] This is all false. [0:25] But could a candidate from the party's left ever win the ultimate prize and take the White [0:31] House in 2028? [0:34] I'm Jonathan Friedland, columnist at The Guardian, and this is Politics Weekly America. [0:41] And I'm delighted to say that I am joined, returning to the podcast, by Bhaskar Sunkara, [0:46] who is the president of The Nation magazine, founding editor of Jacobin, and the author [0:52] of coming out in a new edition, The Socialist Manifesto, the case for radical politics in [0:59] an era of extreme inequalities. [1:01] Bhaskar, very good to have you back with us on the podcast. [1:04] Hi, Jonathan. [1:05] Thanks for the invitation. [1:06] Really good to see you. [1:07] As I said, the Democrats are having a bit of a moment. [1:09] Just in terms of the party in general, before we talk about the left of the party, we know [1:16] that Donald Trump's approval numbers are down. [1:20] Gas prices are up. [1:22] Midterms now about 100 days away. [1:24] First off, we'll start with the House of Representatives, which was seen as the kind [1:28] of lower hanging fruit. [1:30] How would you rate the Democrats' chances of retaking the House from the Republicans come [1:36] November? [1:37] We're rated at 98 percent, maybe 99. [1:40] Right. [1:41] You are confident. [1:42] Extreme confidence. [1:43] Yes. [1:44] In the House, at least. [1:45] And that's despite the efforts — we've talked about them on this show — to redistrict boundaries, [1:51] draw lines, make it harder to vote, make it harder for Democrats, in particular Democratic [1:56] voting areas, to vote. [1:58] You are still bulletproof in your confidence that none of those efforts on the Republican [2:03] side will impede the Democrats' chances of retaking the House. [2:07] Despite redistricting and despite all these anti-democratic measures that are chipping [2:13] away at voting rights in certain areas, the House is still our Democratic body, right? [2:19] If I had my vision of America, it might be a closer system to the UK, maybe a little bit [2:26] more unitary. [2:27] As unitary as France, but with a strong House of Commons. [2:31] And our House of Commons is, of course, the House of Representatives. [2:34] And the Democrats are just too far ahead of the generic ballot. [2:40] Generally, that percentage will translate into seats. [2:44] They possibly could be doing better, if circumstances allowed, but the gerrymandering is sadly going [2:50] on in both directions, so it becomes almost a wash, maybe a slight advantage to the Republicans. [2:55] But it's maybe not as one-sided as the narrative overseas would suggest. [3:01] So that's the House of Representatives. [3:05] The much harder climb for Democrats has always been the Senate. [3:09] The map is not nearly as favourable, a reminder to people outside the United States, that it [3:16] is only a third of the 100 seats of the Senate that come up every two years. [3:20] So it's not the whole body that's up, but it's about 33, 34 seats that are up this time. [3:26] A lot of them are unfavourable to Democrats. [3:29] It will be an uphill climb, but not impossible. [3:31] So how do you rate the chances there for Democratic gains in the Senate? [3:36] I'm a little bit more pessimistic than most on the Senate. [3:40] I think it's very likely that we'll have a tie that will be 50-50 in the Senate. [3:46] And the deciding vote goes to the Vice President, that unless he has a change of heart, unless [3:51] he goes back to his New Deal Democratic Party roots, JD Vance will not be voting in favour [4:00] of any Democratic proposals. [4:01] Yeah, I think that's something we won't be placing bets on. [4:05] I think it is in line, actually, that sort of expectation with the fact that everything [4:12] has to go right for Democrats to win a majority in the Senate. [4:15] There's a few seats, four or five, but they've got to kind of sweep the board. [4:20] Democrats themselves, in a way, looking a bit more confident. [4:22] They're putting $40 million into an effort across 10 seats via the DSCC, that's the Democratic [4:30] Senatorial Campaign Committee. [4:31] So they think it's not a lost cause. [4:35] They've branded their campaign win the Senate, hoping to be taken through. [4:39] But in the end, it does come down to actual candidates, and that we're going to get into [4:44] some of those. [4:45] But let's just talk about this emphasis, particularly on one wing of the party, and it's the part [4:50] of the party you know well from your perch there at The Nation magazine. [4:54] I'm talking about the left. [4:56] The democratic socialism, even that phrase, has moved from the fringes to becoming a real [5:03] force inside the Democratic Party. [5:05] Obviously, I think perhaps the best known face of it is where you are in New York City [5:10] with the mayor Zoran Mamdani, also Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. [5:15] We'll talk about her later on. [5:18] But now, Abdul El Saeed has captured the attention of a lot of progressive voters. [5:22] He's vying to be the Democratic nominee for the Senate race in Michigan. [5:27] A lot of energy on the left. [5:29] Before we get into the individuals, just tell me, Baskar, your view of what you think might [5:34] be behind, what might explain this shift of momentum and surge of energy towards the Democrats' [5:40] left wing? [5:41] In the US system, obviously, we're closer to a no party system than a two party system. [5:47] So the tents are very, very loose. [5:50] I think all Democrats can basically agree that they would rather even the worst of their Democratic [5:56] opponents in this version of the Republican Party under Trump. [6:00] But besides that, there's very little agreement within the party. [6:05] So my very doctrinaire answer is that in a society with gross inequity and a society that's so [6:12] wealthy but also has so much division, it's natural that there'd be some sort of egalitarian [6:20] alternative. [6:21] And for most of the world since the middle of the 19th century, the name of that umbrella for [6:26] that egalitarian alternative has been socialism. [6:30] So in that sense, why should America be that unusual? [6:33] We had a socialist movement that was quite strong and visible through World War II. [6:38] We had it in fits and spurts with popular leaders, your Martin Luther King, your Bayard [6:43] Rustin, A. Philip Randolph, people from the civil rights movement in the US that are well [6:48] known throughout the world, all identified as democratic socialists. [6:52] Our first gay mayor of San Francisco, first gay mayor of a city in the US, Harvey Milk, [6:58] was a democratic socialist. [6:59] I joined the democratic socialists of America in 2007. [7:04] So I guess maybe from my perspective, the surprising thing isn't the emergence of the [7:10] left so much as explaining why it was suppressed for several decades and why it didn't have this [7:17] visible role in US society, because to me, this is a normal thing that a center left party would [7:24] have a, you know, further left wing and a more centrist wing. [7:28] But you would know, as somebody who joined the DSA democratic socialists in 2007, it's often been [7:33] a hard road to hoe. [7:34] I mean, it's not easy always. [7:36] Yet now the environment seems much more conducive and hospitable. [7:40] What do you put that down to? [7:43] I think a lot of it is a generational shift where people are feeling less affiliation to [7:49] both of the major parties and looking for alternatives. [7:52] But because of the structure of our party system, the alternative is not going to come from a third [7:56] party. [7:57] It's going to come from the ability of actors to, within one of the existing tents, [8:02] form their own ideological poles. [8:04] So on the right, you have the MAGA movement around Donald Trump. [8:09] On the left, you have a broad true current. [8:13] So one is a broader left populist current. [8:15] And you could think of Al-Sayed and other people as coming from that area. [8:22] The other would be a more defined current within that, that is explicitly democratic socialist. [8:28] Yeah, so it's part of a broader shift away from the old sort of two-party duopoly and the [8:34] mainstreams, as it were, of both parties. [8:36] And you're seeing it, as you say, on the left and right. [8:38] Let's drill into the specifics and these contests that are testing the strength, [8:44] in a way, of the progressive left. [8:47] I think we've touched on it. [8:48] The most closely watched, in some ways, Senate contests, one of them, [8:52] is in the state of Michigan, old-fashioned blue-collar industrial state in the Midwest. [8:58] There is a primary contest just a few days away now that will determine who the Democratic [9:03] nominee in that race is. [9:06] Pits a doctor, Abdul El-Sayed, who is from the progressive wing of the party, [9:12] against Hayley Stevens, who's a more moderate or establishment figure. [9:17] Why has this race become so significant for Democrats and for the battle over the future [9:24] of the party? [9:25] Well, as neutrally as possible, I would say that both wings of the party are pretty [9:29] pleased with their candidate. [9:31] I think, in Stevens, the centrist Democrats have a sort of, like, oddly charismatic figure, almost. [9:41] She almost has anti-charisma in that she speaks in a weird way. [9:44] A lot of this, I believe, is an affect, but, you know, whatever, accents are tough. [9:48] With El-Sayed, we really have, in the Democratic Party, found a candidate who codes as very culturally [9:55] normal. [9:56] You know, he's someone who works out. [9:59] You know, a huge part of the question for 2028 was how to win over young men. [10:05] I think we have a good ambassador there, but also he's a reliable progressive. [10:09] He's a very clean, like, personal record. [10:12] He's someone who has been a consistent advocate for Medicare for all. [10:17] His politics are very clear. [10:18] He's always been, you know, in favor of Palestine solidarity. [10:22] I would say Palestinian solidarity has become a bigger issue, in part because of attacks on [10:27] him. [10:28] I'm not sure that's the race he wanted to run, necessarily. [10:32] But in this period where support for Israel is in decline in the U.S., and particularly [10:37] within the Democratic Party, that's actually working in his favor electorally. [10:43] But I think both sides are kind of bringing their best to some degree. [10:48] And I think it's become a proxy or at the very least a barometer of where the party is [10:56] about whether the progressive parts of the Democratic Party coalition are going to win [11:02] over, let's say, older black voters, which are still a very important demographic in Michigan, [11:07] whether they could win over unionized voters. [11:09] I'll say it has the support of the leadership of the UAW. [11:15] A lot of American unions have shifted to the left. [11:18] The question is always, is the rank and file or the rank and file shifting with them? [11:23] So it's a very, very interesting test for both wings of the party. [11:27] It really is. [11:28] And as you say, in a way, they've brought their best sort of face to this contest. [11:32] They're both strong candidates there. [11:34] I'm interested in one thing, which is why he might be distancing himself [11:39] from a sort of left branding. [11:42] He said to The Atlantic outside, [11:45] I know that the establishment desperately wants to turn me into a DSA candidate, [11:49] meaning Democratic Socialists of America. [11:52] I'm just not. [11:53] And it bothers them so much. [11:55] Later saying, I think that capitalism, when it actually works, [11:58] is an efficient way to allocate resources. [12:00] But just on that point about saying I'm not the DSA candidate, [12:03] it suggests that despite the fact we're saying the left is having a moment, [12:08] he feels in Michigan that's a tag that may not be of benefit to him. [12:13] Yeah, well, I think for one thing, if you're not a socialist, you've never identified as a socialist. [12:18] I think it's a very, very strong and unusual argument to say that it's an electoral benefit [12:24] to call yourself a socialist. [12:26] In most contexts, I don't think it is. [12:28] But I think in this case, this is someone who really does have a vision, [12:31] a sort of saving capitalism vision of anti-monopoly, of the benefits of competition, [12:38] even within the current structure. [12:40] And as most of his socialization campaigns have been behind creating single payer healthcare [12:46] in the US, I would actually say privately, he probably would be also in favor of some sort [12:53] of American NHS. So that's a demand where a lot of left populists actually want this big social [12:59] democratic socialization. But on a lot of these other issues, why be burdened by an organization [13:06] you're not a member of? Why be burdened potentially by a label? A lot of DSA candidates and DSAs [13:12] as an organization were also tied to much less popular stances around defunding the police [13:19] and things like that. So obviously, it makes sense for a politician who's adopting different views, [13:25] especially on policing. And for what it's worth, I think we need a well funded police force in the US. [13:33] Very interesting. In other words, he may see a need to distance himself from some of those slogans [13:38] like defund the police. And it's a pragmatic or sensible decision in somebody's seeking office. [13:43] I want to go to another contest, which is prove bumpy for the progressive wing of the Democrats. [13:49] And that's the state of Maine. It's a vital state for them to win if they have any chance [13:56] of winning the Senate. It's a state that voted strongly for Kamala Harris last time. And yet it's [14:02] been returning term after term, a Republican in the form of Susan Collins. So it's seen as an easy, [14:08] relatively state to win. The candidate for it was Graham Plattner, who had been plucked really from [14:15] obscurity, became branded as a sort of rising star, then dropped out of the race after a sexual assault [14:23] allegation, which he denies. He indeed calls it categorically false. But women came forward to say [14:31] and complain about his conduct and he is now out. There is a new candidate there in the form of Troy [14:37] Jackson, who is trying to catch up and win that seat. But it's been used this episode as an [14:46] illustration of some of the problems of the left of the party that they sort of fell in love with [14:51] this guy, Graham Plattner. He was not, it's clear, sufficiently vetted. I think that's fair to say. [14:59] And I use the word vetted because he was sort of recruited like by talent spotters associated with the [15:05] left of the party. It does suggest something is not quite right there, almost sort of organizationally [15:12] among progressives and the Democrats. Do you think that's fair? And do you think there's been some, [15:17] what lessons would you learn from this episode in the state of Maine? [15:22] Yeah, I think it's not quite fair in the sense that what you're describing was a common narrative, [15:28] which is, this is a question of vetting. Either one or two people know what happened in that case. [15:38] I don't think that's something that vetting necessarily would have turned up. [15:41] Graham Plattner had on his body a notorious Nazi symbol, and that also didn't come up. And you'd [15:47] think vetting would find that out. For what it's worth, I don't think Graham Plattner was ever [15:51] a Nazi. I think there is a very weird and unfortunate thing in the American military culture [15:59] of the embrace of transgressive and violent symbols. I suspect that he actually did know what [16:06] this, what the symbol was to some degree, but he just, you know, got that tattoo when he was in the [16:11] military. I don't, I don't think there's, he even had a far right phase or anything like that. Again, [16:17] I'm not positive that that would turn up in any regular vetting process. It wouldn't be something [16:23] that I would think to ask a candidate, even if given weeks with the candidates, you know, [16:27] can you take off your shirt and show us your, your back? I think honestly, a lot of these complaints [16:33] were used as point scoring against this group of sort of left populist recruiters like Morris Katz, [16:40] who played roles as advisors in the Mamdani campaign as well. I would say that I'm a democratic [16:45] socialist. I'm a member of an organization that's, that is almost like a proto party in a country [16:52] that I described earlier as having closer to no parties than two parties. So the way we recruit [16:58] candidates is through a process of knowing people for years, putting them forward through their work [17:05] in the organization. Azor Mamdani is someone that a lot of us knew for years and years and years before [17:11] he ran for state assembly. I think that's an ideal way to recruit someone through an organization. [17:15] And that's much more normal in sort of international terms about how people are, [17:20] are recruited. But I think that a lot of the backlash to the particular process that yielded [17:26] Graham Plattner is kind of intra democratic party consultant battles that, that I actually don't, [17:33] don't think there are significant lessons other than take allegations seriously when they, when they, [17:38] when they arise and people are flawed. And if you run enough candidates, you're going to [17:44] get stories like this. If you are watching on YouTube, do let us know in the comments what you [17:49] think on the Democrats' chances, what the future holds for them, and particularly for the party's [17:56] left. Are they heading into 2028 with momentum or with more questions than answers? So Basco, [18:04] we're talking about the left as a sort of grouping, a movement. Eventually, if the midterms go well, [18:10] the focus immediately on November the 4th, once the midterms are out of the way, will turn to the next [18:15] big election of 2028, the presidential election. And a big challenge for any movement within a party, [18:22] or even outside it, is can they come up with a single candidate who unites that group, unites the [18:29] wider party and could even win? You have written favorably about the idea of a presidential bid for [18:36] Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the Congresswoman from New York. She hasn't announced a campaign or even [18:44] expressed any kind of formal interest, but she hasn't, she hasn't denied that interest either. How [18:50] realistic do you think it is that she could run, win her party's nomination and even go all the way? [18:58] Yeah, I think it's quite realistic as a prospect. She's someone who's a well-known national political [19:03] figure. She's been perhaps the most prominent member of the House of Representatives for the [19:10] last several years. She's someone who's clearly identified as a progressive, but also I made the [19:18] argument that I believe she's someone who's adapting her rhetoric towards a more populist message, [19:24] a message that talks a little bit more clearly about bread and butter issues, a message that aims [19:30] to reach out to people, including people who supported Donald Trump. And that's a campaign [19:36] that I would like to see in the Democratic Party. And I think if she performs well enough articulating [19:42] within the party, then she'll win and deserve the primary. But given how polarized American politics [19:49] are whoever comes out of either party's primary is going to have a very good shot at being being [19:55] president. So my view is essentially, I like AOC, I think she'll rise to the occasion. Let's see how [20:01] she does in the primary process. If she's not a viable candidate, the national level, she's not going to [20:06] win the primary either. No, she doesn't have even the progressive lane wholly to herself. Congressman [20:12] Ro Khanna is thinking, it seems, presidentially. But just going broader, there's Kamala Harris. [20:18] People know her as the former nominee. There's Gavin Newsom, the governor of California. What is it that [20:24] you think gives AOC an edge over the other plausible Democratic candidates for 28? [20:29] Robert Khanna, I think, will have an uphill battle. He's not as known as AOC. He is a good figure, [20:38] he's very responsive. He's moving the right direction, by right direction, I mean, to the left [20:43] on some key issues. But I think he maintains a profile that in the abstract feels more electable [20:51] in the sense that he is not, we used the word burden before, so I'll repeat it with the caveat [20:57] that I'm a proud democratic socialist, but he's not burdened with the label of being a democratic [21:02] socialist and so on. I think there's other things that will make it a hard race for him. [21:08] He's not a Christian. He would be our first non-Christian president. And just like I, [21:14] I think it's a burden to be a democratic socialist. I think that's a difficult thing to overcome in a [21:21] general election too. With Newsom, I really think that he's in an uncomfortable position where he's [21:29] well-known by members of the party. He's disliked by the left, but he seems like someone who kind of [21:36] moves wherever the wind blows. And I don't think that inspires a lot of dedicated support. Harris [21:42] might get some support among older black voters and others. She's just a familiar name, but she just [21:47] had her shot and lost the election. I think the strongest contender is sort of a John Ossoff, [21:53] who's someone who came into office as a senator from Georgia as a much more of a centrist Democrat, [22:00] but is actually his voting record is quite progressive. He speaks with a common touch that [22:07] I think people think will make him a good candidate for swing races. So at that point, if you have [22:12] someone like that, that people on the left have, you know, less odious disdain for than Gavin Newsom, [22:20] then why bother running another California Democrat? Yes. In fact, people can go back and [22:25] listen. Gavin Newsom was a guest on the podcast, obviously looming over the whole race always, [22:30] as he has done over politics in the US for a decade, is the figure of Donald Trump. At the [22:36] rescheduled White House Correspondents Dinner last Friday, he wore a Trump 2028 hat and made jokes about [22:44] running not just for a third term, but a fourth term. I won three times. Now I'm going to do it again. [22:54] Thank you. Obviously, it's barred by the Constitution, but Donald Trump tends to write his own rules. [23:00] How seriously do you think Democrats should be taking the idea that Trump may not exit the stage [23:06] in 2028? I don't take it particularly seriously. I think it's disturbing, just like I think it's [23:15] disturbing that January 6th happened as an attempted coup, even though I think it had no chance of [23:21] succeeding. So I think we should be worried about Democratic backsliding in the US and worried about [23:28] what Trump represents. But most of our focus should be on figures like J.D. Vance, should be focused on [23:33] figures of Marco Rubio, should be focused on the continuity in the kind of Trump wing of the of the [23:41] party. I think Trump's going to have a hard time not being the centre of attention, but I don't take [23:47] it seriously as a threat to kind of normal Republican sort of transference of power. [23:52] Now, as you know, Bhaskar, because you've been with us before on the podcast, [23:55] we do always like to ask a what else question, something just a bit different. [23:59] An odd appearance on Capitol Hill this week of Anthony Fauci, the man, the doctor, [24:05] who was the face of America's response to COVID. He was there to answer questions from senators who [24:12] were looking into the origins of COVID-19. And he, rather than answering their questions, [24:18] invoked the Fifth Amendment. On the advice of counsel, I respectfully decline to answer based [24:23] upon my rights under the Fifth Amendment to the Constitution. Designed to protect citizens from [24:30] potentially incriminating themselves. It came as 155 scientists signed an open letter urging the [24:39] government to end what they call the vilification and harassment of American scientists. Anthony Fauci [24:46] saying that one senator in particular has got almost an obsession with trying to prosecute him. All part of [24:53] this picture. What do you think, Bhaskar, those people who are sort of, you know, at war with science, [25:02] what is the political advantage you think they believe there is in going after science and scientists [25:09] in this way? So I don't think there's political mileage broadly in the American public. I think there [25:15] is mileage among their base, right? It's a costly thing for them to direct their ire at a unpopular figure with [25:22] their base. Most of these senators are in races where they don't have competitive general elections, [25:29] and they're just fighting in primaries with other Republicans who are more likely to position [25:34] themselves to their right than to their left. So I think it makes sense at a practical level. [25:41] Obviously, I think that this particular campaign against Fauci is unfounded. But I would say that [25:49] we can go too far and say there's science disconnected from politics, which of course there is. [25:56] But if we take that sentiment and say, therefore, technocrats shouldn't be accountable to democratic [26:02] will, I actually think we miss one of the more interesting debates that we've been having for the [26:07] last 120 plus years, which is the reconciliation of expertise with democratic equality. And I think that [26:15] is an important question for any democracy. I think often when people say that none of these [26:21] questions should be subjected to partisanship, they're also saying that you can't really reconcile [26:28] expertise with democratic equality. And I don't think that's the case. I think it's a much trickier [26:34] question for all of us to think about and try to resolve. [26:37] All right, Bhaskar Sunkara, thank you so much for joining me on Politics Weekly America. [26:43] It was a pleasure. [26:44] And that is all from me for this week. If you have thoughts on the Democrats and their future [26:49] and the parties left, do let us know in the comments. For now, though, it's goodbye. [26:54] Thank you, as always, for watching. We'll be back next week.