AI'S NEXT TEST ALPHABET EARNINGS (07/22) Stock Market Analysis

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Blue cloud trading through the night. [00:00:06] Speaker 2: Welcome back to the channel, everyone. In just a second, I'm going to play a few CNBC clips from today's episode of the Halftime Report. I'm going to pull up the charts and dive into the technicals of some of the mentioned stocks. We're going to look at the key support, resistance levels, momentum, and see if the price action actually backs up what the talking hands are saying. Hit that like button, subscribe if you haven't already, and let's roll the tape on the first clip. [00:00:33] Speaker 1: Thank you, Carl and Sarah. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Leslie Picker in for Scott Wapner today. Front and center this hour, the ABCs of earnings season with Alphabet kicking off the big tech earnings gauntlet after the bell today. The Investment Committee is here to break down what is at stake. Joining me for the hour, Joe Terranova, Liz Thomas, Jenny Harrington, and Steve Weiss. Let's get a check on the markets, which have bounced a bit off session lows. You can see the NASDAQ trying to get into positive territory, essentially flat at this hour. The S&P up 0.2 percent. The Dow up about 0.4 percent. And the Russell slightly in the negative. But we begin with Alphabet and whether tonight's report will set the tone for second quarter earnings season. Let's get right to Mackenzie Cigalos with the key things to watch from tonight's report. Back. [00:01:17] Speaker 3: So, Leslie, Alphabet kicks off hyperscaler earnings after the bell, giving investors their first real test of how much more AI spending they are willing to stomach. The setup is already fragile. The MAG-7 lost a record $2.3 trillion last month as investors rotated away from the companies funding this AI buildout. Alphabet is the clearest stress test. CapEx more than doubled last quarter. It's raised more than $140 billion in debt and equity. And free cash flow could flip negative next year. The street needs proof that demand is catching up. Cloud growth expectations are north of 60 percent. Backlog is $460 billion as of last quarter. And investors need to see capacity coming online without margins buckling under higher component costs. Google also playing from behind at the cutting edge of Frontier AI. But it's undercutting Chinese open source rivals on price. The question is whether that can pull more enterprise workloads into Google Cloud and what the economics of powering Apple's Siri ultimately look like. Another CapEx increase is expected. How the stock reacts could either reinforce confidence in the hyperscaler buildout or undermine it. And, of course, search still accounts for the lion's share of revenue. So we'll be looking to see if it hits that street target of $63 billion. Leslie? [00:02:30] Speaker 1: Yeah, Mac, really critical report. Thanks for staying all over at McKenzie-Sagalos for us. Joey, I want to turn to you. You're a shareholder. What's the key thing you're looking for from tonight's report? [00:02:39] Speaker 4: Oh, it's clearly are we monetizing the spend via cloud growth? And can that cloud growth come in much higher than the consensus expectation of 63%? Can we touch the whisper number at 70%? And then what's the impact of the internal usage for TPUs, the tensor processing units? Does that mean that CapEx is a little bit lower than some of the hyperscalers? That could certainly ignite further gains for Alphabet. Effectively, though, as it relates to the AI universe, memory names, semi-equipment, and the momentum factor itself, we want to see a continuation of the hyperscaler spend. The offset of that, ultimately, is that hits the restart button on the pause, and it allows the momentum factor to refresh. [00:03:29] Speaker 1: So, Weiss, the whole construct of Alphabet's earnings seem to be show your ROI and then tell us what you're going to do on CapEx. Because without that ROI, CapEx, you know, it could go either way, right? [00:03:42] Speaker 5: Right. You're suggesting the ROI on the CapEx specifically. [00:03:46] Speaker 1: Yes. Prove the ROI, and then we'll give you a pass for higher CapEx. [00:03:50] Speaker 5: Right. Because they do have a great ROI on their other investments. Look, right now, the base case is that spending will increase more moderately than we've seen on AI, more moderately than we've seen in other quarters, and that's true across the hyperscalers. Hopefully, it won't be what OpenAI said they're going to increase their spending by, which is 25% in that announcement today. However, look, there are multiple levers in their earnings report. There's YouTube, there's search, right, which is ad, so they have the, and cloud, so they really have the ability to show ROI continuing in those other areas, right? And any one of them being off or up, outsize I'm talking about, will basically neutralize somewhat of the ROI specifically on AI spending. At this point, the market has to believe, right, that you're going to get a return on your AI spending. And I think they've become more patient. And the narrative, which I think was really a stupid narrative, which is that where's the return on it? Where's the return on it? You just started spending. You don't get a CapEx return, a return CapEx, until if you spend for a while and build what you need to build. So I'm not as worked up about it. I think it's a great company with an attractive valuation. So I can't tell you that if they increase CapEx markedly, or if they don't specifically say, here's our return on investment in CapEx, that the stock won't go down. But I'm just not worried about it, right? Because you can't manage this cycle where you're seeing the biggest uptake in a technology ever, including the Internet, which is free, and just say, hey, I'm impatient because it hasn't happened yet. [00:05:34] Speaker 1: Yeah. The question is how long the patience will last. Liz, how important is the read-through from Alphabet into everything else, semiconductors, the rest of the hyperscalers? Are there parts of this report that could be idiosyncratic and the rest of the market ignored? Or do you think this is so critical that it just will impact kind of the broader, at least momentum, names that we've been following? [00:05:55] Speaker 6: I think it's critical. I don't think it's necessarily the one that the entire market hinges on. And there are a lot of different, as Steve mentioned, a lot of different revenue lines and a lot of different idiosyncrasies in that particular stock. However, when you look at just the theme in general and the momentum of the theme, the fact that the market right now is showing the most dispersion that we've seen in a long, long time, maybe even decades, it's really difficult to choose which stocks are going to do well, which stocks are going to do poorly. And I actually respectfully disagree with Steve's point a little bit, that when you look at the ROI of what's coming out of AI spend, I think that is the most important. Even if there is ROI from other business lines, it might help the numbers come in okay broadly. But I think it's most important where the ROI is on AI. And to your point, how patient will investors be? When you look at the fundamentals of these hyperscalers and free cash flow that we're expecting, the story had been for such a long time, well, they've got the free cash flow to spend. They don't have to go and borrow. That story has obviously changed. And in 2027, broadly, free cash flow is expected to turn negative, actually, for the hyperscalers. So the patience actually needs to happen until 2028. That's what expectations are when free cash flow finally picks back up again. That's a long time to wait for a lot of people. [00:07:11] Speaker 5: Can I just clarify my answer? Because I don't think we disagree, actually. [00:07:14] Speaker 6: Okay. [00:07:14] Speaker 5: There will be an ROI on the AI spending. I don't think you've seen an ROI in the correlation to the spending that they've done that's going to be all that meaningful. So they do have to show ROI, but it's way too early to know what the significance of that ultimate ROI is going to be. If they don't show any ROI at all, then obviously that's going to be an issue. But it doesn't have to be a lot, is my point. [00:07:40] Speaker 1: How likely is it that that's, you know, is that something that you think is on the table, Jenny? But especially as we look at the competition from the Chinese open source models, this construct of kind of revaluing these companies, as Liz was talking about, to ones where, you know, they are capital intensive and they do have a lot of debt now that's not necessarily borrowed against their free cash flow. It's, you know, is that something that you need to be considering? [00:08:07] Speaker 7: I think you need to, and it's interesting for me, because if you think about the kinds of stocks that I invest in, they're old school, they're high free cash flow. Every single one of my stocks, every single company that I'm invested in, if they say we're going to spend $10 billion on this project, they need to tell you in that moment what they expect the ROI to be. They don't get a hall pass, right? And so they don't need to say, hey, we're making that ROI, but they need to tell you what they expect. And so all these hyperscalers have really gotten a hall pass where it's just like, okay, leap of faith, great, you're going to make money, you've done it before, we don't need to hear the exact numbers. So I think it's interesting thinking about, like, how different that is versus what I invest in. And then with respect to Google setting, or I know, we call it Alphabet, sorry, with respect to Alphabet setting the tone, I've really thought about the whole MAG-7 or the whole top 10. And it's tough to think about the tone when you see how much divergence there is even in the top 10, where you've got an Apple up 20 and a Microsoft down 17. So I think there's, like, it's so company-specific that when you're asking that question, Leslie, I was wondering to myself, you know, who precisely do they set the tone for? Because we're used to, over the past five years, the top 10 setting the tone for the top 10. Right. And now it's like Google's reach for where they're setting the tone would be so, it would be so different than it's been in the past. Like, do they set it for Micron? Do they set it for Cerebris? I don't really know right now. But it would be, it would be much more nuanced. And that's hard for investors to deal with. So I think, you know, I think it's a kind of, it's a kind of tough environment where a lot of thinking needs to come in. And a lot of really deep work on individual names versus just saying, hey, they reported great numbers, great for the MAG-7, great for big tech, great for the hyperscalers. No, it's not, it can't be that broad brushed when you're thinking about it. [00:09:58] Speaker 4: Well, we've seen this. So the return on investment has been there for the last three quarters. What are the numbers? The cloud growth has accelerated three consecutive quarters. You're up to 63% now, as we've said, the whisper number we're looking for tonight is 70%. And that's the distinction between Meta. Meta's got a great business model. I believe in Meta's business model, we're long in the ETF Meta, but it's difficult to have the proof point that you actually have with Alphabet. Very quietly, the AI universe is relying on the spend this evening. I would keep your eye on Broadcom. Watch Broadcom because if there is an impact from these tensor processing units internally with Alphabet, that might restart the momentum in Broadcom, which has had a little bit of a pullback. Your risk is somewhere around 350. I think the stock, as we speak, 393, we see it there. But if you hear something really positive because of that relationship surrounding TPUs with Broadcom and Alphabet, that restarts the momentum at Broadcom. It's an example of what we're looking for in the AI universe and the derivative traits. [00:11:02] Speaker 1: Well, that's what I was going to ask you about the inverse correlation between the hyperscalers and what we've seen in chips. And I know you bought some NVIDIA. [00:11:11] Speaker 4: So I made an initial purchase on July 7th at $198 for NVIDIA. It wasn't based on anything fundamental. Everyone on the desk understands the strong fundamental surrounding this company. What it was was a recognition that, as I've been advocating for the last several years, market structure is changing so dynamically in front of us right now. We are moving more and more towards this quant algorithm dominance in the market. And that means that price is priority and the momentum factor becomes elevated. Steve does a great job talking about this. You went through a sideways consolidation period last year in Apple. Then you had the breakout. The breakout really was predicated on the momentum building. And I've seen the same thing happening for NVIDIA over the last several weeks. It's literally tracing out a very similar pattern to what we witnessed where Apple went from $250 up to $330. So the breakout is unfolding right in front of us. I purchased again a second purchase at $207. As it moves higher, I will continue to buy it because I believe this stock is in the midst of a momentum breakout back towards $240. And it's nothing more than technically oriented. [00:12:31] Speaker 5: Weiss, what were you going to say? Yeah, I was going to say, let's just reset the narrative a little bit. There's not going to be an income line that says return on investment from AI CapEx. What it's going to be and what we've seen AI do, it improves productivity. It improves engagement. So when you see additional growth in a YouTube or in search, right, from Gemini, that's going to be a function of the AI spending. So the idea, the concept that, well, you've got to show the ROI on AI spending, it's just flawed. It's going to be embedded in the other businesses. Now, you can believe that there's sophisticated companies, some of the most sophisticated financial companies in the world, that they did price it out, to your point, in terms of, okay, what do we do from this? What are we going to earn from this? However, what's most important is when you have new technology like this, and we've seen so many cycles, if you're not one of the first movers, you can lose your position, and the rest of your business can sort of waste away, not go to zero, but won't grow. So part of it's offensive, the other part's defensive spending. We used to hear about perplexity all the time, right, that that's the new one, that's the new one. Well, guess what, they don't have the pocketbook to spend what a Google has to spend. So we don't hear about them anymore. Not that it's a bad product, it's a good product, but the point is, is that you have to spend so you keep the perplexities at bay. [00:14:00] Speaker 7: And here's the challenge, which is, not all of the first movers are going to end up viable in the long run. So there's going to be a few first movers who win, and a bunch of first movers who end up, like, losing all that money, where the capital's going to be wildly, going to, in retrospect, have been wildly misallocated towards them. So it's really tricky, right? Like, I don't know how you play it exactly. Do you buy all the first movers and say, okay, three of them are going to be zeros, and two of them are going to be 10 baggers? Maybe, but we need to remember that just because you're a first mover, certainly, Netscape, AOL, like, certainly doesn't mean that you're going to be a long-term winner. [00:14:35] Speaker 1: Yeah, and to your point, there just aren't the metrics in place at this point for investors to sit and say, okay, they're making progress on how the spend is translating into returns. We are getting some news out of Capitol Hill. Let's get to Emily Wilkins with those details. Hi, Emily. [00:14:50] Speaker 8: Hey, Leslie. Well, we have just seen some brand-new bill texts drop around that major rules-of-the-road crypto package that we have been following closely, that the industry has really been pushing for. And this one actually includes a new section of text that would ban all federal elected officials, including the president and the vice president, from issuing or being able to profit from crypto. And this is language that's actually got signed off. Republicans proposed it to President Donald Trump, who did say that he was going to go ahead and approve that. Of course, he and his family made $1.2 billion in crypto last year. It's unclear exactly what the nuances are. This is a 166-page bill. So it's unclear exactly what the nuances of this text are and how it might directly impact Trump. But it's certainly a step forward for what a lot of Democrats have been asking for, for to be able to vote on this bill. Now, we don't know exactly where Democrats stand because the bill text just got dropped only a few minutes ago. But we do know that Senate Majority Leader John Thune is hoping to have a vote on this bill within the next couple of weeks. And again, this is something that the digital asset community, groups like Coinbase and Ripple, they've been up here lobbying for and pushing for because they want that regulatory clarity in their industry. They believe that will ultimately help crypto. And we'll have to see. This is yet another big step forward to a potential agreement, but still plenty left to go. [00:16:20] Speaker 1: Leslie? Emily, do we know where things landed with Know Your Customer and Anti-Money Laundering? [00:16:26] Speaker 8: So there definitely is an updated section in this bill on trying to make sure that crypto cannot be used for illicit activities. Again, we're still combing through exactly what the details are. But that's another area that Democrats will be taking a very close look at because there are concerns from senators like Mark Warner who want to support this overall package. But say the only way to get them to yes on that is to make sure that there are really strong safeguards in place and that this isn't going to be something where the U.S. gives some regulatory cover to groups that might want to be using crypto for illicit purposes. [00:16:59] Speaker 1: All right, Emily. Thank you so much. Emily Wilkins for us in D.C. Guys, I want to turn back to just the momentum factor and what's been happening with that lately. There are some pretty wild statistics, obviously, a significant bounce in momentum yesterday. Over the last three months, according to Goldman, it's recorded the highest vol in the past 45 years outside of a recession. TMT momentum pair just suffered the worst drawdown in the past five years before bouncing yesterday. And Goldman calls momentum a bucking bronco. And I think a lot of that speaks to what we were just discussing with regard to dispersion, with regard to concentration, with regard to levered ETFs and market structure. And I just am curious to get your thoughts. Maybe we'll start with you, Joe, because I know this is your space. You know, where does it go from here? Do you expect the bucking bronco analogy to continue to hold? [00:17:50] Speaker 4: I think it only intensifies in the next several years. Unfortunately, the market dynamic has just changed. It's moved away from pure fundamental analysis. Do I think fundamental analysis matters? Of course it does. But it is moving more to this dominance where, if you think about going to work on Wall Street as a college graduate, one of the major requirements right now is that you have a degree in physics or data analytics. It requires that you have some form of mathematical understanding because of all of the quantitative funds that are being employed right now. Look at the most recent quarter from Goldman Sachs. A lot. That's not overwhelmingly fundamentally driven. So I think it only intensifies. And 2026 has been a year about significant rotation within the market. And momentum seems to be going to multiple places at multiple times. It went, if you think about overseas, it went temporarily into Israel and moved quickly out. Obviously, Korea has been very popular. Japan has been very popular. Where we are today on July 22nd, it's in the refiners, in energy. It's finding a place in the financials related to exchanges and trading and insurance. It's now finding a home in agriculture and commodities. I know Josh talked about Archer Daniels Midland, who was one of his best stocks in the market. Corteva, if you could show that chart, is another name that has significant momentum. Corn, wheat, soybeans, all up double digits this month. So momentum is kind of moving to all these different places in 2026 and trying to find the opportunity. And if that happens, you're going to have continued volatility for sure. [00:19:37] Speaker 6: You want to go? I'll go. So I think there's been a tone shift in the market. And a lot of it is what Joe just said. But right now, there are way too many investors doing what I'll call whale hunting, trying to find the next hot thing, the next hot stock that's going to have blowout returns, even the next hot industry group, right? The next group that's like memory chips. And I think this environment with such heightened volatility, particularly in the momentum factor, is going to be very unforgiving to those types of investors, unless you're doing deep technical analysis, deep fundamental analysis, and you're ready to hang on to that stock until it actually comes to fruition. But I think what people really need to do in this environment, because I agree it's going to persist and maybe even intensify, is step back. The safest thing to do here is to own things a little bit more broadly, because on an index level, it's been pretty tame. It's just the churn that's happening under the surface that you're not seeing every single day. So owning the index, owning puts on the index to protect yourself, because trying to chase some of these single stocks and single industry groups around, it's going to be a losing battle in a lot of ways. [00:20:44] Speaker 7: OK, so there's a huge problem right here, if Liz and Joe are right, that it's going to persist and intensify. And the problem isn't in the total return of the fund. So like MTUM, it's up 26% this year. It could have another great year next year. The problem is, is that those intensified roller coasters unnerve the individual investors who are in them. And when you're unnerved, you behave badly. And what's the biggest source of terrible investment returns? Bad behavior. So what happens is people get freaked out at the wrong times, which are the bottoms, and overly zealous at the top and think they've missed out and have FOMO and buy at the top. So I think, well, the funds themselves might deliver excellent returns, right? Because underneath that surface, to your point, the portfolio managers are going to the right spots and dealing with momentum in the right way. But the individual investors, particularly with the ease of waking up at 2 a.m. in the morning, freaking out and thinking like, oh, jeez, I need to sell this. You can enter the order right then. And it's just traded out of your account pre-market or before the market even opens or at the open, is so bad for returns. So I think the warning to individual investors needs to be, listen to these guys, understand what you're getting into, stiffen your spine, like put the steel rods in your spine, and just wait out that roller coaster. Because otherwise, you're going to be a loser where you should be a winner if you can just say, hey, I'll be in this for three years or five years or 10 years. But you need to really know what you're getting into and listen, you know, if you actually want to enjoy those returns. But behavior and emotions are the downside of that, of the increased volatility on them. [00:22:19] Speaker 5: What it really comes down to is how do you view volatility, to view it as risk or to view it as opportunity. I view it as opportunity. I will tell you that that's how Dave Tepper views it. That's how Steve Cohen, the great traders and investors. Volatility doesn't worry them. Sure, in terms of the matrix of technical signs, maybe it's an input and sometimes it's more of an input than others. If you're a technical trader, you're looking at higher, lower highs when it bounces back. So, but, you know, I do think that it's not as bad as it used to be in terms of retail, selling at every downtick, because mostly they're in indexes. And frankly, you've been weaned off this new psychology since 2008, that every decline is a V-shaped recovery, and we're seeing that. So I don't think it's as big an issue as perhaps you do. Well, and the people I talk to that aren't professionals, they don't seem bothered by it all. They want to know what's going on. [00:23:17] Speaker 7: But here's the thing. You're a professional, so A, you're trained this way, and B, you have a— [00:23:21] Speaker 5: No, I just said the people I talk to that aren't in the business. [00:23:23] Speaker 7: Okay, okay, but listen, but even the people that you're talking to that aren't in the business, I'm going to bet you are disproportionately educated. You know, they're probably semi-professionals, even if they aren't. And so I think there's a lot of retail people out there who are sitting home alone, right, and they don't have what we all have. When we get scooped, what do we do? We talk to each other, and we bring each other down. And I find that there's a lot of individuals out there who rely only on themselves, right? And sometimes people even email me because they're, like, so desperate to just have a conversation and ground themselves. [00:23:53] Speaker 4: So philosophically, look, I agree with you, and you're standing up for the retail investor based on behavioral patterns. But the statistics suggest otherwise. Exactly. If you listen to Charles Schwab, if you listen to interactive brokers and hear about retail engagement, they are participating because they're profiting. There's something about the environment that's beneficial to them. Now, Steve makes a great point. Volatility, absolutely. Opportunity all day. Opportunity. We agree on that. And the offset of institutional opportunity as it relates to volatility is that there is an effect on the retail community that benefits as well from that volatility. So I think the retail community is as smart as they ever have been. I think if you talk to a younger generation like I do, they are far more financially literate than I was at their age, technologically proficient. And I think the environment, because of the access of information, what we do here, I think it's bettering overall the opportunity. I agree. And if there's one trouble spot, let me just say, if there's one trouble spot, let's go after market structure. Because if you look right now at options, the majority of options that are traded on a daily basis have an expiration of 4 o'clock this afternoon. Right. I don't agree with that. I agree with that. I think inherently that's wrong. That's gambling. But what companies like Jane Street are benefiting from, what companies like Hudson River Trading, which most people don't even know who Hudson River Trading are, they're making more money than J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs. And Jenny, none of us could get hired today based on our qualifications. That's the truth. At Jane Street or Hudson River Trading. Think about that. [00:25:38] Speaker 5: You know, these, let me give you an example and fast forward to a move and talk about, because we too often equate volatility with downside, right? We don't really talk about upside. So here's what I'm talking about. So FTAI Aviation, which I re-entered a few weeks ago, they announced today their first ever order for data centers, right? So they're taking their engines and they're putting power in data centers. Testing is pretty much complete. And the orders will be for 27, 28. The stock traded up 12% now. And it was pre-market. Now, there wasn't a ton of volume, but there was enough volume there for me to sell a good part of my position. And then it's traded back. That's upside volatility to take advantage of. Now, when it trades down, I'm not saying I do this with every position. I don't. But if you have that kind of outside move, you should take advantage of it. And don't worry about taxes, right? And then when you come back, when the stock settles back, then you can buy it back. So it's not for everybody, because you really got to know what you're doing. It's not for retail investors. But upside volatility is a benefit. So volatility is not all bad at all. [00:26:47] Speaker 1: Vol works both ways. We all agree. And if anyone, it's benefiting the capital market-sensitive firms, the trading firms, as Joe mentioned. Barclays expects multi-year trading revenues this year to be the best, well, for investment banking outside of 2021, and a multi-year record for trading revenue. So we're already seeing that in the big banks and some others. Coming up, Weiss has another move to tell you about, plus our calls of the day. Halftime is back in two minutes. [00:27:11] Speaker 2: Hey, everybody. Welcome to Blue Cloud Trading. I'm George. We just saw the first clip from CNBC's today's episode of the Halftime Report. They went over a number of stocks and ETFs. This is the first segment here that I'm going to cover. We're going to look at these 12 stocks. Then we're going to take a look at an additional 20 stocks that they cover in the second clip. And then we'll go over the indices as well. We'll cover Google. We'll cover IBM. We'll cover Tesla today. So you want to stay tuned for that. Let's get started here with ADM, okay? ADM, which is Archer Daniels Midland, all right? Now, taking a look at the technicals here on the weekly chart, it was up 1.31%. If you've been following my channel, you know that I use this indicator. It's called the Ichimoku indicator. It's a Japanese indicator. It helps me to assess the trend, the strength of the trend. It's an indicator that is used by a lot of financial institutions. I'm going to give you guys a quick summary here. What we're looking for is price to be above these two moving averages, the 9 period, the 26 period. We want price to be above the Ichimoku cloud. And we want this white line, this lagging line that you see right here, to be above price 26 periods ago. So above the 26 period ago candle. If all of that, if basically we meet all that criteria, all right, we've got a very strong bullish trend. And it's really important that the green line be above the red line because it is the faster moving average. And we want that Syncospan A, the light color blue line, above the Syncospan B, unlike back here. Okay, so you can see how once price emerged above the cloud, it led to this nice move. In fact, ADM, since the break of the cloud, has moved up 50.16%. That basically took place on August 8th of 2025. So it's a little while back. So again, this is a weekly chart where each one of these candles represents one week. And you can see the price is 87.32. It's been steadily moving up. We're using the Directional Movement Index as well. The green line is the positive DI9. The red line is the negative DI9. We want the green line above the red line, which we have here. And we want that white line to be moving up. That represents momentum increasing. And that's the ADX9. Okay, so we've got these at a faster setting than the traditional setting. So ADM looks great on the weekly. Guess what? It looks great on the daily chart, too. All the same criteria are met here. And therefore, this stock gets a blue flag. There's only one other stock in this list that got the blue flag, and that's CTVA Corteva. So let's take a look at that one, which is up 1.83% today. Remember, the market's down today, right? So I just want to show you guys how the markets did today. You can see the Dow is down 0.01. NASDAQ is down 0.57. S&P 500 closed down 0.14. And the Russell 2000 closed down 0.93. It's Wednesday, July 22nd. Right now, it's 7.40 p.m. Eastern Time as I'm recording this video. All right, so yeah, not good that the markets dropped so much. And you can see what's going on in the aftermarket. Google down 3%. Tesla's down. Meta, Amazon, and NVIDIA all down, all right? But we're going to look at those charts in just a moment, including the current price where it is after hours. So Corteva, on the, let's start off with the weekly chart. You can see here, very strong uptrend here for Corteva. We broke above this prior high as well. We have a higher low here from the prior one. So we have essentially a nice upward channel. It's looking good. Weekly chart and daily chart. Also very bullish. Let's look at AVGO Broadcom. It's currently under the cloud. So I would skip this. Now remember, one of the rules of this indicator is really clear, right? Ichimoku stands for at a glance. What we were looking for is price to be above the cloud at a minimum and meeting all those other criteria that I just mentioned, right? We don't have that. So what do you do in a scenario like this? You just kind of skip the stock. Why bother analyzing it any further until it starts showing some strength and that it's popping and it's breaking through and there's momentum and there's interest, right? There are more buyers than sellers. Right now, it's consolidating. Consolidation means that it's basically moving sideways. Nothing to do here. Stay out of that one. And notice how the cloud itself is also bearish. That happens when the SankoSpan A, the light colored blue line, is under the SankoSpan B. Now the cloud, what's interesting is it projects 26 periods into the future. All right, that's really interesting. Very unique. There are no other indicators that I know of that do that. And, you know, it also has a lagging line here, which goes 26 periods into the past. So we're looking at the future. We're looking at the past and the present and it's not looking good here for Broadcom. So Coinbase is under the cloud on the daily chart. So no on Coinbase at this time. FTAI is also under the cloud. It moved up. It jumped 5.82%. But look where it stalled, right at that dotted yellow line, which is the 200-day simple moving average. I also have that plotted on the charts. It's a level that a lot of traders pay attention to. So you can see how we broke under here. We got resistance now. This is also a reversal candle. It's called a red spinning top. If you see this forming after a move up, it's more likely that price is going to pull back. All right? It's more likely that that's going to happen. If you guys want to familiarize yourselves with Japanese candlesticks, you should go to my X page. If you want to find out about some of the things that I post here, definitely check this out. But also, click on highlights once you're on the page. Scroll down a little bit. And you will find this candle pattern reference sheet. There's the bearish spinning top that I was just talking about. And there's a whole lot more. And if you want to understand candlesticks, this sheet will actually help you understand that. You can also check out some of the actual stock patterns right here by clicking on this other one. And you can download these for free. All right. Let's get back to the charts. So FTAI, no on that one. Google. All right. So this is where price closed. $342.09. They just came out with their earnings after hours. Check this out. Are we ready? Let's hit the button above here that you can't see. It's going to show me the current price, including post-market. Boom. It dropped some more. It did stall at that $200. But it dropped nonetheless. And that's really important. If I switch it to a three-minute chart, we can see here in this highlighted gray area what's happening after hours. This is after 4 p.m. So Google is still dropping. It may have found a bottom down here at around 325. It has moved up 1.7% since then, since around 5.48 p.m. today, this afternoon. So we'll see if Google can recover here. But, yeah, it's not looking that pretty here for Google based on the earnings. MAGS is the MAG7 ETF. You can see it's inside the cloud. That's another time that you don't want to be adding positions is when price is inside the cloud. It means there's indecision between the buyers and sellers. There's no one in control, neither the buyers nor sellers. If you want to get a more strategic outlook, you can also look at the weekly chart. And it's more bullish. All right. So you get the general longer-term chart telling you that, hey, the MAG7 are still holding up above the 9 period, the 26 period, but barely. And then look at the cloud, how it's becoming very, very thin. What that means is, like, hey, if we get a negative crossover here, things could go sour. They could go. But right now, it's just barely holding. I'd say holding by a thread. Let's keep going. MTUM. Here's the weekly chart. It's under the 9 period. That's the momentum factor ETF on the daily chart. It's been pulling back. It's currently above the cloud, just barely, but it's under that 26 period. And notice how the red line is above the green line. That's also bearish for the directional movement index. NVIDIA is inside the cloud still, up 2.29%. Let's see what this looks like after hours. Dropped slightly. Not a big move there, obviously. And it's still in this downward channel. I would hold off on NVIDIA for now. HW is basically under the 9 period currently. Okay, that's Charles Schwab. And it's holding above 99.59. That's very bullish, actually. The fact that it's holding above this prior level, it goes all the way back to this candle. We're talking about 2025. So I like the fact that it's holding above it. We'll see if it can recover. In fact, this pattern, this double candle pattern that you see right here, the large red candle, followed by this small bullish candle. That's called a bullish harami. Now, what does that mean? Harami in Japanese means pregnant. The large body followed by the little small body. Okay? So this is a higher likelihood. The price will, if it gets above the high of that candle, it will continue to the upside. So I'll show you guys that pattern also. It's, again, in this candle pattern reference sheet. It's under the double candle patterns. It's right here where I'm circling. Bullish harami. Okay, let's get back to the charts. Let's look at XLE, the energy ETF. A lot of people think that technical analysis is a waste of time. I disagree. What this does, essentially, is it gives you a roadmap about what's happening. It's actually, you know, showing you visually what's happening in the markets between the buyers and the sellers. Day by day, if you're looking at a daily chart, you can see here day after day price has been moving up. Or if you want to switch it to a weekly chart, what's been happening these last three weeks where it's been moving up. So it can give you some insight about where price has been in the past and where does it look like it's going. What's the trajectory? Is it moving up or is it moving down? And do you want to be adding positions while price is dropping and the stock is out of favor? In my opinion, that's not a great idea. You want to wait for after a pullback, after a drop, for price to emerge back above. And what we're seeing here with energy is exactly that. Price on the weekly chart these last three weeks, you can see it broke last week on the week ending Friday, July 17th, closed above the 9 period. Now we're seeing a continuation, right? Another thing that you can see here down below, the directional movement index, the green line crossed above the red line. It's giving us extra confirmation. You switch it over to a daily chart, you know, today and yesterday. It got above the cloud here on the daily chart. Another positive thing that happened was a positive crossover. The faster moving average crossed above the negative one. The ChicoSpan got above price. It was underpriced for a little while, right? So a lot of positive things are happening. The only thing that's lacking here is the fact that the future cloud has not turned bullish quite yet. But if you look at the trajectory of where it's going, the Syncrospan A is moving up. The Syncrospan B is flat. And it's more than likely to, in the very near future, for this to cross above. I also like what I'm seeing with the directional movement index, okay? You can see that the green line is moving up. The red line is moving down. And the ADX, which represents momentum, is also increasing to the upside. So this is what you're looking for. This is exactly what you're looking for. And I think we've got a lot of positivity here. If I draw a trend line also, by the way, let's just curious, let's see what that looks like right there. Okay. So we're about to touch that trend line. Do you see from that high to that high? And we're right under it. If we break that, that's also going to add additional momentum to the upside, all right? Because it is a resistance level. What about XLF? Let's look at that one. That's financials. So financials have been stuck here. You can see this 56, 59 level. It's based on these prior highs from January of 2026. We are still underneath those. However, overall, when you look at the big picture on the daily chart, it's been mostly to the upside. If you look at the weekly chart, we're still above the cloud. But I feel like we need to break that 56, 59 level still. All right. We're still finding resistance there. And it has not cleared the way yet. All right. So now we're going to get back into the CNBC clips for a moment. I also have some clips from the overtime show, the closing bell overtime, where they actually give out the earnings announcement on Google. So watch that. And then right after, I'll do some more analysis covering the additional stocks and ETFs. [00:40:43] Speaker 1: We have got another committee move today. Weiss, you bought more UNH. It's down 0.8% today. What's behind the move? [00:40:51] Speaker 5: Yeah. So look, when the company reported earnings, and I said, I think it's going to be good because Hemsley is really short into his tenure since coming back. He's long-term, was a chairman and CEO, step back from CEO, chairman, and now has come back as CEO. So I thought it was going to be a good quarter. It was. When the quarter was announced, stock hit a 52-week high at 461. I said, I'm not buying it on this spike, but I will buy it and add to my position when it comes back down. Came back down. You know, I bought it yesterday. It's down a little from yesterday. That's fine. But look, I think the stock is reasserting its growth, reasserting its position. It's the number one health care company in the world on the payer side. And at 20 times earnings, roughly, with good growth going forward and the bad news, the V28 and all that other, you know, regulations behind them, I think it's going to be a winner going forward and return to being a permanent compounder. [00:41:47] Speaker 1: You already talked about FTAI Aviation. So let's get to some. [00:41:51] Speaker 5: Don't we talk about it again? [00:41:52] Speaker 1: I'm good. Check that box. Let's get to some other committee stocks on the move today. Shares of GE Vernova are lower after reporting earnings. This is a pretty big drop, down 7%. Joe, this is one you own. [00:42:06] Speaker 4: Yeah, this was disappointing guidance. The EBITDA margins were basically unchanged. And given where the business is with natural gas turbines and the participation and AI power equipment, they needed to exceed lofty expectations and really come out with a very aggressive and generous guidance. And in fact, they didn't do that. And that's why I think you see the pullback here of 7%. I think it speaks towards the personality of what the momentum factor has been the last several weeks. [00:42:34] Speaker 1: Yeah, so much about that. [00:42:35] Speaker 5: Yeah, I own it also. It was disappointing. Yeah. What was equally disappointing was the messaging in not having the earnings per share in their table. Like, how do you do that? So, to me, that's sort of like, let's change the metric. And that's what, in fact, they did in the conference call. Let's look at the gigahertz. You know, let's look at the backlog. Let's do all that. Now, this is what happens. The stock's actually only down modestly considering it's selling at nearly 80 times EBITDA this year. And earnings is, you know, ridiculous in terms of that multiple. So, look, it's a small position for me, regrettably. I say regrettably because where I entered it, it's up significantly. So, I don't really care about being down today. But I'm not adding it here because this is part of the whole AI complex. And as you go out, it's a power company. And margins just aren't that robust in a very capital-intensive company, particularly with competition coming on. Eventually, not now. Nuclear is a decade away. But FTAI, look at that. So, the question is, will their backlog ever turn into actual cash flow? I believe it will. And it's got really good free cash flow. But it's enough for me right now. So, it should be down. I think it's down modestly well as if to what it could be down. [00:43:56] Speaker 1: Worth holding on to at these levels, you think? [00:43:59] Speaker 5: As long as the AI dialogue continues. [00:44:01] Speaker 1: Well, speaking of AI dialogue, CyberNames, giving back earlier gains after OpenAI said its AI models went rogue and targeted open source platform known as Hugging Faces systems. Joe, you own CrowdStrike. This is such a wild story. The fact that they were just testing these models. They leapfrogged out of the sandbox and intruded into the internal systems of Hugging Faces, a company that, you know, most of us have never heard of. [00:44:30] Speaker 4: Yeah, so let's take up the conversation of just kind of how do you think about where they are, all of the cybersecurity names relative to price and the recent highs. You're anticipating earnings in a couple of weeks, so I don't think you're going to see an aggressive nature in terms of adding to risk for positions that have been clear winners in the software space. Fundamentally, overall, nothing has changed surrounding the fact that you want to own cybersecurity in the software industry. Those are going to look universally at software and say, OK, for a lot of the SaaS programs over the last several years, we almost feel as though we've been ripped off on price based on now what the disruption is for AI. But as it relates to cybersecurity and price itself, we are going to pay that price because we are moving more and more into an environment where you need to have, as an enterprise, that's security. So it's benefiting CrowdStrike, it's benefiting Datadog, which is monitoring cloud infrastructure as well. Nothing is changing there. And Jenny mentioned Microsoft before, just touching on software. I actually see Microsoft having some relative outperformance in the month of July to the overall software industry itself. So if you are a Microsoft shareholder, as I am, maybe that's a signal that it's bottoming based on the nature of its force of its overwhelming balance sheet. [00:45:59] Speaker 1: Liz, do you think that the cyber incumbents are the ones that are going to be best positioned to prevent these types of threats? [00:46:06] Speaker 6: Yes, but I think cyber as a whole is just full of opportunity. I mean, if we've learned anything through this AI cycle, it's that security is paramount and everybody is so nervous about it from a business perspective, from a personal perspective. The demand for cybersecurity is only going to grow. Now, to Joe's point, they don't have to change their business models as much as SaaS companies likely have to change their business models. I don't think all of those die either. But cybersecurity likely has to grow up a little bit, has to keep up with the pace of how everything is innovating. But I think, I mean, cyber just broadly, even the ETF, CIBR, buy. [00:46:45] Speaker 7: Yeah, just one thing on this. I think from a bigger societal perspective, we should all be paying really close attention to this, and we should be very wary about this. If this could jump and connect to the Internet when it wasn't connected, you're like, why wouldn't it be able to hack the cyber stocks, too? I think we'll reflect back on this one day and say that was a warning shot, and we all should have been paying a lot more attention to it. [00:47:04] Speaker 1: Wow, we're paying attention here. Up next, Mike Santoli joins us with his midday work. We are back on halftime. Senior markets commentator and overtime co-anchor Mike Santoli joins us with his midday word. Feels like the calm before the earnings storm right now, Mike. [00:47:19] Speaker 9: It definitely is, Leslie, and with a very familiar feel in a few ways. So there's 2,800 stocks up and 2,800 stocks down on the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ right now. The margin of victory for the S&P 500 is strictly a little bit of a continuing bounce in semis. It's NVIDIA and Broadcom effectively account for every bit of it. And so you have this constant, let's trade one thing against another. Semis, I think the big question is, have they proven anything yet with this bounce? I'd say not yet. They're kind of coming up on some levels that will matter a little bit more in the way of upside hurdles. And, you know, the big question going into those numbers tonight, starting with Alphabet, is did the hyperscaler trade get de-risked enough? Is it cheap enough to actually leave room for further upside, a valuation cushion, all the rest of it? I don't think it's easy to say one way or the other. You know, an Alphabet of 24 times, which looks kind of cheap to where it was recently, but also looks expensive to Microsoft and Meta. So I think the reaction there is going to be pretty key. Final point, we're at 7,500 yet again on the S&P 500. It's where we were at the start of the month when oil was under 70 on WTI and the 10-year yield was under 440. And now we're much higher on both those measures. It's unclear how long we could continue to kind of keep that insulated from the S&P 500 if those trends continue. [00:48:40] Speaker 1: Yeah, it's remarkable. The market's basically shugging off oil at a five-week high and 30-year yield trading above 5% for the longest stretch since, I think, it's 2009. So market taking it in stride and focused mostly on earnings. [00:48:52] Speaker 9: At least the indexes are. Yeah. Exactly. Parts of the market that are feeling it. [00:48:56] Speaker 1: Exactly. Mike, thank you. Up next, we are trading financials with a number of committee moves, kind of committee names on the move after earnings. Halftime is back after this. Welcome back. A number of financials on the move today after earnings, including Capital One, Interactive Brokers, and CME Group. Joe, we were just talking about all of this volatility in the market, and there are some pretty clear beneficiaries of this. Schwab earlier in the week is another one, and we saw the banks last week. You know, is there a way to play just the market structure dynamics we were discussing earlier in the hour in terms of the publicly traded financials that you see on your screen there? [00:49:31] Speaker 4: There is, and let's get the negative out of the way first. And to me, that's Capital One. I was very disappointed in this quarter. This is, of all the financial holdings in the JOT ETF, this is the worst performer. The expenses remain too high. The reserve release was really the positive news as it relates to earnings. Turning the attention back to the environment of how do I invest around the growth of trading, the activity, the engagement that we're seeing in M&A, the IPOs. It's, as Steve has talked about, it's your Goldman Sachs, it's your Morgan Stanley. But the trickle-down effect is into some of the asset managers. It's in your Charles Schwab. It's in RJF. It's in T. Rowe Price. It's in the exchanges. The CME reporting a really strong quarter today. Not unsurprising. CBOE, CBO. As it's known, I took a personal position in that just one month ago. I would stay anchored with that position with the growth of options. So it's about engagement. It's about asset managers. Look at AMG. You could pull up a chart there. And I think the question you ask yourself as you begin to reposition the financial sector surrounding trading, does this actually lift the spirits in private equity? Does it lift the spirits for names like Blackstone and KKR? Does it do to some of those names what has already been done? The greatest example of the growth of trading and engagement in 2026 is a name I've mentioned often, and that's Virtu Financial. They report earnings, I believe, next week. They are up 78% if we could show that chart so far year to date. [00:51:13] Speaker 1: Do you think that traditional asset managers, whether they be liquid like a T. Rowe Price or illiquid like a KKR or private equity firms, are they actually beneficiaries of this? Or do they find this disruptive to their ability to beat their indexes and outperform and kind of do what they're supposed to do? And, you know, in the case of alternative asset managers, they're kind of locked in. And so that whole idea of the zero options and leverages, all the trading and fun that goes with it that's brought this engagement to the forefront, you know, you don't really get that as much. [00:51:43] Speaker 4: I think it lifts the mood. I think it lifts the spirit. Interactive Brokers has been executing better than anyone else. It's a name that I've had a position in for quite some time. State Street as well. That's another great example of it. So I just think it lifts the spirits. If you want to be negative on something surrounding what we're seeing in this new paradigm, this new market structure, maybe it's in terms of some of the research firms, S&P Global, Moody's. They are struggling right now, for sure. [00:52:14] Speaker 1: Yeah. Part of that's AI, too, and kind of bringing that component to the research. And we've seen some activism on that front. Jenny, going back to Capital One, you also own American Express. The reserve release, a good sign, potentially, for the consumer. But do you see any read-through from those results onto Amex? [00:52:31] Speaker 7: No, generally, I would just look at the consumer for Amex. I think one thing, though, just going back to what Joe was saying, I personally don't think it's about lifting the spirits of these. I think it's about show me the money. And in the post-SASpocalypse world, it's not something that's about emotions and people feeling better. People are going to need to really see, OK, it goes back to our ROI conversation. I think the bigger conversation around the— [00:52:56] Speaker 4: For private equity, right? [00:52:57] Speaker 7: Around the private equity. Yeah. So sorry to diverge from Amex. To me, Amex is like, it is what it is. We know that the K-shaped, the upper K of the consumer is doing well. We know that that's Amex's customer. We know that, at least for now and probably the next 12 to 18 months, that should be just fine. But I think that—I think there's trouble for the private stocks until they can show that their portfolio holdings are actually, you know, paying their debt and increasing their valuations. And I think that's really hard, and there's not a lot of transparency there. So, Joe, you know, I don't think it's just about lifting spirits. I think it's literally about show me the numbers, show me that you're making money, you know, show me that you're making as much money now as you were pre-SASpocalypse. [00:53:39] Speaker 1: Well, you've got Blackstone reporting tomorrow, and the two key components that investors are watching for there are monetizations. Are you exiting these, you know, geriatric portfolio companies, as they call them? And then also, have you seen the private wealth flows bottom at this point in time? [00:53:53] Speaker 7: Right. And even so, though, it's too short-term to really get a read-through on those. It's going to be two years and three years out where there could be real carnage because of Claude Co. replacing smaller software companies that the private guys are invested in. All right. Up next. [00:54:08] Speaker 5: Well, UnitedHealthcare. Don't have a lot of time. I know Jenny wants to talk about her name, so I'm going to reiterate that. [00:54:14] Speaker 7: All I want to do is talk, talk, talk. Jenny? Oh, sorry. For real? Yeah, you. For real. Oh, which one do you want me to talk about? Oh, sorry. Ardott metals. Sorry, Jenny. Sorry, Ardott metals. Crown reported yesterday, all the same thing should be at Ardott's back, 8.5% yield. Liz? [00:54:31] Speaker 6: The equal weight S&P, I know it's not sexy, but it's attractive right now. Cut through the dispersion, cut through the momentum volatility, get that equal weight, and just have a slug in your portfolio. And Joe. [00:54:44] Speaker 4: Yeah, a lot of fun this show, didn't you? [00:54:46] Speaker 1: We had a lot of fun. [00:54:47] Speaker 4: Too much. NVIDIA pushing towards 240. That's my target. [00:54:50] Speaker 1: Went by super fast. Thank you guys so much. [00:54:53] Speaker 10: And to the trading day at the NYSE, PagerDuty ringing the closing bell. And at the NASDAQ, the Teak Fellowship doing the honors here. Welcome to Closing Bell Overtime. We're live from Studio B at the NASDAQ Market Site. I'm Melissa Lee, along with Mike Santoli, who happened to ring the opening bell this morning. What an honor. It was a lot of fun. Stocks mostly lowered today. The Dow up a tiny bit. Small loss for the S&P 500. NASDAQ down nearly half a percent. They're also losing about a percent. [00:55:16] Speaker 9: But the action is about to pick up over the next few minutes. We're going to get earnings from Google and Tesla, plus ServiceNow, IBM, and more. We'll bring you those results as they come out. And we've got a great lineup of guests to react to all the numbers. [00:55:28] Speaker 10: And once that initial flurry dies down, that is when the conference calls start. At 430, Google, CSX, Las Vegas, SAMS, Texas Instruments all begin their calls. So truly, this is the calm before the storm. But it was a really interesting session. The 10-year yield, basically at those May highs there. Oil was higher. And yet we had this sort of wait and see. We did have that Paul cast over the software sector with the Pegasystems report earlier this morning. So ServiceNow is weak going into the earnings report. IBM was weak. Microsoft was weak. [00:55:56] Speaker 9: And you saw conviction kind of leak out of some of the leading trades over the course of the day. Semis were up a few percent at the beginning. And then they kind of finished really at their lows of the day. Some of the speculative stuff really taking on some water. SpaceX making new lows. So all that in the mix. It seems like preliminaries until we get these numbers and figure things out. I do think there was a little bit of a bolt of confidence added by the AMD anthropic deal in the morning. So maybe the hardware trade isn't over. [00:56:21] Speaker 10: Yeah. As Oliver Rennick had reported, you know, the options market is only expecting, what, a less than a two percent move up or down in shares of Alphabet. But we've seen. I thought he said five and a half. Five and a half? Yeah. Five and a half. Excuse me. Five and a half. We've seen much bigger moves than that out of mega cap companies. For sure. On earnings. We have. [00:56:38] Speaker 9: I mean, because the fundamentals are more volatile. The fundamentals have a lot of a wide range of probabilities in terms of, you know, CapEx being ramped and exactly what the cloud growth, for example, on Google is going to be. [00:56:49] Speaker ?: Yeah. [00:56:49] Speaker 10: It should be an interesting hour. [00:56:50] Speaker 9: Alphabet earnings are out. We're going through those numbers. But in the meantime, you see the stock just around the flat line. Let's bring in D.A. Davidson, head of technology research, Gil Luria, and Jeffrey, senior software analyst, Brent Thill. Gil, what's the first place you're going to look when you get these results? What do we need to know? [00:57:05] Speaker 11: Cloud growth. Is it growing more than 63 percent? That was the phenomenal growth that got a lot of this party started for Google last quarter. If they can grow any faster than that, that's a very good sign. [00:57:15] Speaker 9: Actually, we have the numbers. Mackenzie Cigalos has those for us. [00:57:19] Speaker 3: Mike, we're seeing shares fractionally higher. It is a beat on revenue at $119.8 billion versus $116.93 billion that was expected for Q2 revenue. Now, with EPS, this is a gap number of $9.11. We are not comparing that to the estimate here because in the quarter, Alphabet saw $99 billion equity securities gain. At cloud revenue, this was the big question going into the print, we are seeing an 82 percent jump year-over-year to $24.8 billion versus the $22.24 billion that was expected for cloud revenue. And I've also got a read on CapEx in Q2, $44.92 billion, also beating the estimate there. I'm going to keep digging into these numbers and come back to you guys. [00:58:01] Speaker 9: Mack, thank you very much. Well, there you go, Gil. 82 percent year-over-year growth in cloud revenue. I guess there were some whispers of plus 75 maybe at the outer end. So, obviously, this is what you wanted to see. [00:58:12] Speaker 11: Yes, and it's one word. It's Anthropic, right? The ramp in Anthropic has been staggering. A company that started at less than $10 billion run rate at the end of last year is now likely at more than $70 billion run rate six or seven months later. Guess what? Google and Amazon are their big compute providers. So, that's flowing through. And I'm guessing the securities gain has to do either with the stake in Anthropic or SpaceX. Exactly. Two very good investments for Alphabet over the years. [00:58:39] Speaker 9: Yes, for sure. [00:58:40] Speaker 10: Yeah. Brent, what will you be – we're all coming through the numbers at this point, but what will you be looking at to sort of glean whether that return on investment metric can be found in this release? [00:58:54] Speaker 12: Well, you're not going to find in this release, so let's not focus on that. But when you look at cloud, right, I think, as Gil said, you know, the 10% beat on cloud was massive. The whisper number was 75, the street was at 65, so 82 is a 10% beat. Search is in line at 17% growth, and YouTube beat by 2.5%. CapEx is basically right in line, 44.9 versus the street at 44.7. So, the only thing I'm seeing in the numbers is margin is a little bit lower, 39 versus the street at 40. But when you look at the cloud beat, you look at search in line, YouTube beating by 3, CapEx, you know, right in line, it just – it felt like it was right down the middle, stable, steady. I think the market was hoping for more. But, you know, look, it was – call it a 260-yard drive. It was not a 300-yard drive that we've seen from them in the past. So, it was stable, consistent, and I think that's why stocks trade off after hours. [00:59:58] Speaker 9: Yeah, and Gil, of course, the CapEx for the last quarter was about in line. They're not necessarily going to give us a new number for that. So, what do you think is going to be the next, you know, the inflection in street sentiment or what's going to kind of maybe add a little confidence, if anything, to Alphabet's story in the absence of that? [01:00:17] Speaker 11: So, I think a couple of things they can talk about are selling chips. Yeah. We're all excited about them selling TPUs. That's really a windfall. All they have to do is get a little bit more allocation from TSMC, mark it up, and that's a business they were never in before. So, that's incremental to everything. And there's going to be a healthy discussion about Gemini. Why did Noam Shazir left? Why did other executives leave for OpenA and Anthropic? Can you still be the state-of-the-art model? That's a very important question. Nine months ago, Gemini was the state-of-the-art model. We were all talking about what we're doing in Gemini. Now, everybody talks about what they're doing in Cloud. [01:00:48] Speaker 10: How big of a business do you think the chip business could be? Because Amazon actually outlined how big they thought the run rate on chips would be for them last quarter. [01:00:56] Speaker 11: Yeah, they did that because Google started selling chips. So, I would say that Google's TPUs are better than Traniums. So, the market, if Amazon thinks they could sell $50 billion worth of Tranium, Google could probably sell more than that of TPUs. [01:01:10] Speaker 9: Brett, and in terms of Gemini, and I guess the whole idea of, you know, is pushing the frontier for model performance kind of worth it? You also have, you know, as Gil alluded to, Alphabet owns 14% of Anthropic, which it's kind of competing with to try and push that limit. But where does that stand in terms of whether investors want to see Google continue to push that way? [01:01:39] Speaker 12: Yeah, I mean, I think, look, Gemini is really good at certain things. Good to continue that hold up as well. But the beauty is the partnership with Anthropic, they get those workloads, right? So, even if they don't have their own products pushing that by their own infrastructure, where that's going to land with Anthropic. So, you know, the kind of relationships with color trends. Brent, sorry to interrupt. [01:02:08] Speaker 10: The audio quality is not great. Can't really make out what you're doing. So, we'll try and get that straightened out. We do, we should note, have results crossing the wires from IBM as well as Tesla. It's a very busy hour, as we mentioned. We're going through all those numbers. We'll bring them to you as we have them. We got a couple more headlines out of the Alphabet Report, Gil, that I want to ask you about. The Gemini app has 950 million monthly active users. And also, Gemini models now process 22 billion API tokens per minute, which shows the power of their AI model. [01:02:38] Speaker 11: Absolutely, because they're trying to catch up to Anthropic and even OpenAI in the enterprise market, right? That's the market. When we talk about Anthropic being 70 billion run rate, OpenAI being at 50 billion run rate, most of that is enterprise spend. And those two are by far leading Google. So, if they can drive even more revenue in that front, that means Gemini is worth it just for that. [01:02:58] Speaker 9: I think Mackenzie has some more color here on the results. Matt. [01:03:02] Speaker 3: So, Mike, I'm looking at revenue here in that search and other revenue category, which is a key read both on the ad market, but whether their generative AI business is cannibalizing what still remains their core revenue and profit engine. That segment came in a bit light of estimates at 63.3 billion versus the 63.42 billion expected. YouTube revenue actually breaking a losing streak here in terms of missing the street's expectations. That's coming in at 11.1 billion, which is a beat over the 10.81 billion expected. Notably, I am not seeing backlog in the release like we did last quarter. Remember, last quarter, it had doubled to 460 billion, so they're not singling that out this time. You might get that on the call. Only other thing I would point to is that that other bets revenue, this is the segment where Waymo lives. It's, again, a miss, just like it was last quarter, coming in at 382 million versus the 401.3 million expected. And Google doesn't offer formal guidance. We should get more color on the call, which kicks off in about 20 minutes from now. [01:03:59] Speaker 9: Mackenzie, thank you. Gil, another little wrinkle. It seems Google has said they did not sell any equity under the $80 billion at-the-money offering facility. [01:04:08] Speaker 11: That's challenging, because that's an overhang on this. [01:04:11] Speaker 9: I was going to ask you that, yeah. [01:04:12] Speaker 11: We've been talking to investors all week, and whenever we talk about Google, they say, why did they have to do that? Why did they have to tell us they're going to issue equity and not? It's an overhang, because even if they just do this over the balance of the year, it's still maybe 5% to 7% of the daily flow. Right. So investors don't want to hear that. They want to hear that it's done, the capital's been raised, and we don't have that overhang anymore. [01:04:34] Speaker 10: All right. In terms of how you project these results onto other stocks that you cover, Gil. [01:04:41] Speaker 11: The really big one is Microsoft next week. Because for them, this is a fiscal year-end. So we are going to get CapEx guidance for the next 12 months. The whole AI trade is hanging on that. If Microsoft can grow CapEx at a responsible rate, let's call that anywhere between 20% and 30%, the AI party can continue. If they grow more than 40%, there's going to be backlash. Because Azure is only going to grow 40%, 40% plus. They can't grow CapEx faster than that. If they say anything about CapEx may be declining, the AI trade is going to be over. So we think they're going to go right down the fairway, guide for CapEx growth into the next fiscal year. They'll put a concrete number behind that, 250 to 300 maybe. And I think then everybody can feel like, yes, we're getting return on investment. Yes, we'll keep building data centers. The AI trade can continue. [01:05:32] Speaker 10: All right, Gil, thank you. Gil Luria, we see Alphabet shares up by about 1% here. The conference call again kicks off in just about 16 minutes' time. Tesla earnings are out. The stock is down on the back of them. Philippeaux's got these numbers. Phil. [01:05:46] Speaker 13: Hey, Melissa, this is a miss on the bottom line and a beat on the top line. You're looking at the company with EPS of $0.33 a share. The street was expecting $0.51 a share. We're going to dig through the numbers to explain exactly how that happened. Revenue came in better than expected at $28.24 billion. The street was expecting $25.7 billion. And a couple of numbers within the numbers from Tesla in the second quarter, $3.12 billion was the revenue from energy storage. I know the street was expecting $3.5 or a little over $3.5 billion. FSD subscriptions, full self-driving subscriptions, they give a cumulative number every quarter. It's $1.48 million for 2Q. That's up $200,000 compared to $1.28 million at the end of Q1. CapEx spending came in at $5.78 billion, shy of what the street was expecting at $6.5 billion. And free cash flow, negative $1.09 billion. A couple of things regarding their guidance. Megapack 3 production is on target to begin this year. And the first production lines for Optimist Production, which we've known they were working on out in Fremont, have been there in the process of putting those in to begin production later this year. But again, Tesla, $0.33 a share, guys, which is below the street expectation of $0.51 a share. We're going to dig back into the numbers. We'll have more. We'll get back to you. [01:07:10] Speaker 9: All right, Phil, thank you. John Fort has the numbers for us. Hi, John. [01:07:13] Speaker 14: Hey, Mike. Yeah, the headline number's not a surprise here because of the pre-announcement. Revenues do miss at $17.16 billion versus $17.58 billion initially expected. And the EPS, again, was already reported in a warning. The expectation was $2.97. It comes in at $2.93 adjusted. What the street's really looking for here is the guide, and this might be why the stock is up here. I did get to speak with CEO Arvind Krishna. He said that the full-year revenue growth forecast is 4% to 5%, he said, which is probably a good point, point and a half above where the estimates are. So, to me, that's at least a reaffirmation of our conviction and our strategy and the strength of our portfolio and the demand signals that we're getting from clients going forward. I also spoke to Arvind about the general environment, about these open source models and open weight models, specifically on open source. He said he sees that as just being a healthy thing in general, though it's seen less so in the U.S., perhaps more so overseas. IBM is leaning into open weight models as customers want more affordable ways of being able to deal with their AI strategy, guys. [01:08:27] Speaker 2: All right. So, like I said earlier, we're going to take a look at the stocks that they just discussed. There's about 20 more stocks and ETFs all mixed up in here. Microsoft, CrowdStrike, you can see American Express, AMG, IBM is in there. We'll look at those. We'll take a look at the industry. I'm sorry, the indices, SPY, the Qs, the Dow, Gold, Silver, Oil. And Copper, Ethereum, and Bitcoin. So, let's start off, before we do any of that, with just looking at the markets real quick. So, like I said, the whole stock market here was down today, at least for the four indices, right? And if we look at the heat map, what does that look like? Well, this is where things closed, right? So, NVIDIA was up 2.3. Broadcom was up. AMD was up. But there's Google down 1.46% at the end of the day. Meta was down 2.58. The utility stocks did really well today. The energy stocks did really well. Basic materials did well. So did a lot of the industrials. Not all of them. GEV was down 8.69%. And Dell was up 9.32%. So, big move for Dell. Johnson & Johnson was up 2%. And let's see what the aftermarket performance looks like right now. Okay. So, you can see where we're at with Google after hours. 3.33% down so far. Tesla's down 4.13% and still dropping. Amazon, Meta was down. Texas Instruments down 3.04%. But Micron is up 2.4%. A lot of the semiconductor equipment and materials stocks are up. You can see here computer hardware is up. Software applications are up. Okay. And energy stocks, once again, up after hours and sort of the basic materials. What does the sector look like here for the sectors look like for the day performance? You can see utilities were up 2.15% followed by basic materials and energy. And then communication services are the laggards for the day, followed by healthcare and consumer cyclical. All right. So, let's get into the stocks. We're going to start off with AMBP is the ticker symbol for Ardag Metal Packaging. Here's the weekly chart. Price is above the cloud. It's above the moving averages and above the 200. The problem here with this one is the fact that the faster moving average is still under the slower one. You can see the green line is under the red line. That's the weekly chart. If you look at the daily chart, it does look more bullish. So, overall, it doesn't look bad. It doesn't look too terrible here. It has potential. Profit margins are just 0.19% for this company, though. And the sales growth is 7.84. Price of sales is very low, at 0.42. But look at that beta. It's not a stock that really moves much. There's not a lot of volatility in this one. AMG, Affiliated Managers Group. Their earnings are coming out on July 30th. So, keep that in mind. That can certainly trigger price to the downside or upside, depending on how the earnings come out. On the weekly chart, it looks okay. Price is above the moving averages and cloud. On the daily chart, however, you can see it broke down yesterday. On Tuesday, July 21st, closed under. Now, we've got a bullish harami. We talked about that pattern earlier. So, there's a possibility that it could break back above tomorrow. We'll see if that happens. American Express broke under the nine period today, but got stuck and found support at the 26th period on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, it's inside the cloud. So, no on that one. Basically, none of these stocks or ETFs have a blue flag, folks. You know, it's not looking pretty out there in the markets recently. It's a very select number of stocks in just a very few industries that are looking bullish right now. I cover those with members, okay? I share those every weekend, and then each day throughout the week, I'm adding and closing out of positions. And I am focusing on those strongest sectors and industries. That's what makes sense, right? So, yeah, those stocks are going to – because, obviously, the technology stocks right now are looking more and more bearish. And they have been. And there's been a lot of money coming out. There's been cash coming out of those stocks. So, anyway, BUG is the cybersecurity ETF. Here it is in the weekly chart, finding some support at the 9th period. It does still look bullish in the weekly, but on the daily chart, dropping and finding support at the 26th period. Has potential to drop, but look at that volume increasing, too. That's a little bit concerning that the volume is increasing day after day here. And the red line looks like it's about to cross the green line right there, okay? Let's take a look at BX, Blackstone Inc. It's in the financial services sector. It's under the 200-day right now. And today it dropped under the – I think that back – it dropped under on Monday, July 20th, under the 9th period and staying under there for now. On the weekly chart, it's still under the cloud. No on that one. COE, Global Markets Inc., is under the moving averages, so I'd hold off on adding a position on this one, even though it's been moving up four weeks in a row. On the daily chart, you can see that up move, but it's still under the cloud on the daily. CME is still under the cloud on the daily chart as well. When you have a series of lower highs, okay, and lower lows, what that signifies is a downward trend, and you don't want to be adding positions while that is in effect, in my opinion. That's just my humble opinion, you know, because you can't really call the bottom, the absolute bottom. Price can continue dropping further. I mean, just from the time that it got under these moving averages when we had a negative crossover up here, it's dropped 19.88%. Who's to say it's not going to drop another 15%, 20%? We don't know. So I'd hold off on that one. COF is above the cloud, so it's starting to emerge, right, so on the daily chart, but what does the weekly chart tell us? It's still inside the cloud or under it right here, and it's looking bearish. So unless you get a confirmation on both time frames, like both the weekly and the daily telling you the same story, it's best to just hold off on adding a position in that stock, in my opinion. Cloud strike, how about this one? It also depends on what your preferable time frame is for trading. If you're a day trader, it doesn't really matter, right? You're trading like a three-minute chart, for example, and you're waiting for the price to break through that cloud, and you're maybe trying to take advantage of that situation. Or maybe you like the 30-minute charts, okay? It depends on what your time frame is, and you have to choose that. It should be based on what you feel comfortable with, right? But as a swing trader, the weekly and the daily chart, for me, makes the most sense because you have time to evaluate your decision before you add a position or close your position. You know, you have a much shorter period of time to make that determination when you're day trading or if you're doing much shorter time frame trades, right? So, D-Dog, D-Dog Inc. is still under this resistance level of $278.70. I would hold off on that. It's also under the nine period. So, now on D-Dog. GEV has just entered the cloud today, gapped down and dropped to 8.5%. So, yeah, they came out with their earnings. And let's see what, actually, let's see what post-market it looks like. I'm just curious. And moved up slightly. So, we'll see if that can go up tomorrow. We'll find out. IBM, here it is, after hours. I'm sorry, this is where it closed. Down 2.1%. Here is the, hold on a second. There we go. It dropped some more after hours. Let's see. Let's go to the next one. KKR, which is a financial services sector stock. It's an asset management. Down 1.6%. It's under the 200. It's inside the cloud. I just skipped that one. Not interested. Microsoft is under the cloud still. They're coming out with earnings on the 29th of this month. So, that, you heard the guy say how important Microsoft is going to be in helping to determine where this market moves as well. I don't know. We'll see if that's the case. But, basically, on the weekly chart, it's still looking very bearish here. It's not looking pretty. And here it is in the daily. In order for Microsoft to reemerge above the cloud here, it needs to move up. Approximately 15%, all right? So, just think of that. We have to see a minimum of 15% move just so that it can break this downward situation that it's in. So, we're going to have to see a minimum of 15% move. We're going to have to see a minimum of 15% move. We're going to have to see a minimum of 15% move. We're going to have to see a minimum of 15% move. We're going to have to see a minimum of 15% move. We're going to have to see a minimum of 15% move. We're going to have to see a minimum of 15% move. We're going to have to see a minimum of 15% move. The S&P 500, the S&P 500 equal weight, you know, it's been stagnant for, as I've mentioned, for a little while now. It's just kind of in between the two moving averages, just moving sideways. Nothing to do here. Here's a weekly chart. You can see that also right there. Overall, it meets all the criteria on the weekly chart. Prices above the moving averages. They are in the correct order. You know, it's still, the momentum is still up on the weekly, but on the daily chart, you can see here, it's been declining slightly. SMH is still stuck inside this consolidation box. It moved up 0.48%. Let's see what it looks like. Post-market, it moved up a little more, 0.91%. So that's interesting. And so nothing to do with SMH yet. Tesla, this is where it closed. It was down 1.3%. Let's see what it looks like after the earnings announcement. Whoa, down 5.33%. So Tesla got hit even harder. So, you know, one of the things also is, if you see that the chart's looking pretty weak prior to the earnings, that should give you some insight. Like, hey, maybe I should skip adding a position in this stock prior to the earnings announcement. Because there's obviously not any insider buying that's taking place here to help push the price up prior to the earnings, right? We would have seen some evidence in the price action, and we're not seeing any of that here. UNH, UnitedHealth Group, down 1.16%. Their next earnings are in October. It's just moving sideways. But overall, it's a strong uptrend, I'd say, on the daily. Let's go to the weekly chart. On the weekly chart, we've emerged above the cloud here. Notice how these candles are just kind of sitting on that sink span B, right? The purple line. They're just sitting there. And the 200 is lurking right there above. So they're kind of stuck in this little mode here. I think we've got to wait for that to clear its ways. The future cloud has turned bullish. You know, you have to move. Sometimes you have to, like, scroll out to see where the future cloud is. And the sink span A is above sink span B. The ADX is still moving up. That's really important. We do have a series of higher highs now, at least. And, yeah, and a higher low right there from the prior one. So that's good for UNH. VIRT was up 3.4%. We have a bullish Harami again on the weekly chart. That's for me. Again, this candle, you won't know what that looks like until Friday, right? Closing day. Closing price are around 3 p.m. afternoon. You'll know where this is probably going to close. That's what I'd be watching. Daily chart, three days in a row we've been moving up. We had a bullish Harami here between these two candles. And notice how it's been moving up about 5.4%. All right, let's take a look at the indices now. Start off with the SPY. Stuck in a consolidation mode, right? Basically, sideways action. Nothing to do here. Today, it actually dropped under the 9 period again. So none of these have a blue flag either. Weekly chart, still holding up above. Under the 9 period. It's just indecision is what this is, right? QQQ is under the 9 period on the weekly. On the daily chart, it's inside the cloud. It looks weaker. That's what I'm talking about. This is primarily made up of technology stocks. It's about 101. You can see Apple is one of them. Airbnb, Autodesk, DDOG is in there, DoorDash is in there, Marvell, Oracle is in there. You can see all the stocks. So, you know, the Qs, the fact that they're all collectively declining is not a good sign here. Yeah, we'll see. Dow Jones also under the 9 period and the 26. That's the DIA ETF. It was only up 0.01% today. Russell 2000 was down 0.93%. So that's also not looking particularly great. We also had a negative crossover. It's a faster moving average than the slower one. The VIX dropped some more, down 1.17. It's at a level of 16.6. As long as it remains under 20, I think that we're in good shape. We don't want to see a big jump in the VIX. That represents volatility and fear in the markets. And right now, it's declining. So that's a good sign. FEZ, Eurostox, 50 is, we get the faster moving average under this low. No on that one too. All right, for the time being at least. Gold is still under this trend line. There's a falling wedge. Which is more of a bullish type pattern. And we do have a double bottom here that's formed. Right now, if you notice, you know, there is a box that it needs to break through. Do you see this here? So that's, you can see this prior high right there. It needs to break above it. There's the candle for today. So it's still under this trend line. It's still under the cloud. It's still under the 200. But it's been at least finding some support at these levels. And that's important. The other thing that I've noticed is the fact that the green line here crossed above the red line. So that's a good sign too. And the volume here is steady to the upside as price moves up. It gapped up, actually. It was up 1.13%. Silver was also up 1.58. It's in between the two moving averages. But it's still under the cloud. So I wouldn't be adding positions in either of these yet. New positions, that is. OilK. ProShares. You know, this is something you manage, essentially. And that's one of the things I talk about, how I manage my trades in the members' videos that I do. I'll talk about that in a second at the end of this video, how you can become a member if you're interested. OilK is the free crude oil strategy ETF. It's in a downward channel here, but it broke through that trend line recently. Broke above it on July 15th. And it's been moving up steadily. ADX has been moving up. Here's the weekly chart. Got above the nine period on the weekly chart. So this is, obviously, the crude oil is starting to, potentially, going to create another leg to the upside. What does that mean? Well, your gas prices are probably going to go up, unfortunately. But this is not a bad place to invest or start thinking about soon. It hasn't, it's not perfect yet. You know, like daily chart, and it still needs to break through the cloud. But things are looking more and more bullish. And there are a lot of stocks, oil stocks and energy stocks, that do look a lot more bullish than this ETF does. IBIT, the Bitcoin ETF, was down 0.88%. It's under the cloud still. But it's been moving up, you know, since this level here back in June 30th. It's actually moved up 13.4%. Ethereum has also been moving up since June 26th. It's moved up 26.3%. So it's re-emerged into the cloud here. It needs to break through that still. Copper, COPX, has been moving up for the last four days. You can see that move up. We had a double bottom here type situation right here between these two candles. And so I like the fact that it actually broke through these levels here. I think it's going to probably retest this triangle, the symmetrical triangle. I'll probably find resistance right there. We'll see if it can break back in or will it turn back to the downside. That's the question. But I also like what I'm seeing with the directional movement index. And, guys, that's going to do it for this video. Now, before I continue with signing off here, I just want to show you guys how you can become members very quickly. And, by the way, it's really easy to subscribe to the channel. Just hit the subscribe button and notification bell if you go on my channel. It's free to do that, okay? If you want to get access to the member-only videos where I go over my entire portfolio, become a member. How do you do it? You click the join button. It's right next to the subscribe button. Click on that. This is what happens. You see membership. Three levels. Blue Cloud Supporter. Under this level, you can request a stock or ETF to be analyzed. You won't be able to access those member-only videos under this level. You would need to highlight this, Blue Cloud Trader, and then hit join. Then you can get exclusive member-only videos. You can request up to two stocks or ETFs be analyzed on an upcoming video each month. If you want even more stuff, like Blue Cloud Legend, that's the highest level, what do you get under here? You get to request up to three stocks or ETFs each month to be analyzed. You'll get access to those exclusive member-only videos. There's some day trading videos that are not available under Blue Cloud Trader. And the most important thing is the daily stock and ETF trade update that I usually post around 2 p.m. It's always pretty much before the end of the closing day, before 4 p.m. Eastern time, that I share my trades. And I also give a quick synopsis of what's going on in the market. I also share a screenshot of my proprietary scanner and the scanned results that came up that specific day. And it scans over 6,000 stocks and will usually pop out around, I don't know, 10, 15 stocks that are actually giving us buy signals. And those are, again, looking for the strongest stocks that are bullish on the weekly chart, according to Ichimoku, and giving us a buy signal on the daily. So consider becoming a legend-level member. If you like the software, this software here that I use, TC2000, what you need to do is go to this segment here, where it says 10 more links. Click on that. Scroll down a little bit. And there's the $25 coupon for TC2000. So you click on this link and enter your email. As long as you haven't used the service in the last 12 months, you can get that $25 coupon and actually use the software for free for one month. Here's the pricing up here. Click on Software Plans and Data. Select Monthly over here. And you'll see it's $24.99 for the basic. So you get to use that basic for a month for free. Test it out. I would recommend that you upgrade to Premium, though. So that way you can get these additional features. All right? There's a lot more features. And I do use the Premium Plus because I do quite a bit of trading. But it's up to you. You guys decide what you want to do there. Going back here, there's some other links, including the Twitter page link, all that stuff. Thanks for watching, guys. I appreciate you all. Hit the Like button. Subscribe and share this video with someone. And I'll catch you guys in the next one. I'll catch you guys in the next one. [01:28:53] Speaker 11: We'll see you guys in the next one. [01:29:11] Speaker ?: We'll see you guys in the next one. We'll see you guys in the next one. We'll see you guys in the next one. We'll see you guys in the next one. We'll see you guys in the next one. We'll see you guys in the next one. We'll see you guys in the next one. We'll see you guys in the next one. We'll see you guys in the next one. We'll see you guys in the next one. We'll see you guys in the next one. 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