Agreement with U.S. facing ‘skepticism’ and some ‘opposition’ in Iran

[0:02] Welcome to Meet the Press Now. I'm Monica Alba in Washington, and that was the closing bell on Wall [0:08] Street. And we begin this hour with breaking news. The Trump administration announcing that [0:12] an agreement between the U.S. and Iran has been signed by both parties. The news sending markets [0:18] soaring, with the Dow closing just moments ago in record territory, up about 450 points today. [0:25] And oil prices tumbling back down to around $80 a barrel, the lowest level since the first week [0:31] of the war. The full text has not been released, but according to the president and senior [0:36] administration officials, the agreement will reopen the Strait of Hormuz, halt the war, [0:41] and kickstart negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, including potential sanctions relief. [0:47] President Trump touting the agreement while in France for the annual gathering of G7 leaders, [0:52] speaking alongside French President Macron during a bilateral meeting, saying text of the agreement [0:57] will be released soon. [0:59] The deal's outside. And the strain is already partially opened. As you know, they're doing a [1:05] little hunting for a couple of mines that they've already found. But it's essentially ships are [1:13] starting to go out. Now on Friday, it'll be completely opened. But I think a lot of great things are going [1:19] to happen in the Middle East right now. And very importantly, the oil is plummeting down. And the stock [1:26] market is shooting up like a rocket today, like record kind of numbers. And the oil has taken its [1:34] biggest plunge. And we're into the low numbers, not quite back yet, Kevin, to the extent, but we're [1:43] getting close to the numbers we were before it all started. And the main thing is that Iran will not [1:48] have a nuclear weapon. They fully agree to that with strong policing powers. And they won't have a nuclear [1:55] weapon, which is what it was all about. According to a senior administration official, in addition to [2:01] the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the agreement between the U.S. and Iran will also lift the U.S. [2:07] naval blockade and start talks about Iran's nuclear program, which Vice President Vance is expected to [2:12] lead. The administration also stressing Iran will only receive sanctions relief if it meets their [2:18] commitments. Notably, state-affiliated media in Iran is reporting a very different agreement, including [2:25] that negotiations won't begin unless oil sanctions are suspended, billions of dollars in frozen Iran [2:30] funds are released to Tehran immediately, and that the conflict in Lebanon ends. Now, one of [2:37] President Trump's staunchest allies, Senator Lindsey Graham, voicing his concerns, saying on social media, [2:43] quote, I am somewhat concerned that Iran's view of the agreement seems different than what the [2:47] American negotiating team is claiming. He goes on to say, I look forward to reviewing the final product, [2:53] and I believe it is imperative that the architect of the deal, Vice President Vance, and his negotiating [2:59] partners be part of the process in presenting the final deal to Congress. The vice president responding [3:05] in an interview this morning. [3:08] But I had to caution Lindsey Graham and anybody else not to believe the hardliner propaganda in Iran, [3:13] but to believe what's actually in the agreement. But we'll be releasing the text this week, [3:18] and what everybody will see is that Iran doesn't get a dime of money unless they perform their [3:24] obligations. And the money that we're talking about is fundamentally sanctions relief. We're not [3:28] giving them American money. Not a single dollar of American money will go to Iran. We already signed [3:33] the deal digitally yesterday, and there's been no money released, and that won't change, George. Again, [3:37] this is a performance-based thing. [3:41] Joining me now is our team of reporters covering all the angles around the world. Senior White House [3:46] correspondent Gabe Gutierrez is in Geneva covering the president's trip. Senior national security [3:51] correspondent Courtney Kuby is here with me on set. Chief international correspondent Keir Simmons is in [3:56] Doha. International correspondent Matt Bradley is in Tel Aviv. And also with me is business and data [4:02] correspondent Brian Chung. All-star panel here to kick us off on a big day and to break this all down, [4:09] Gabe, I do want to start with you because we just laid out some of the broad strokes of this [4:13] disagreement. But what happens next in terms of where these negotiations go from here? [4:20] Well, certainly, Monica, there are a lot of broad strokes, as you just laid out. The problem is we [4:24] don't have the text. The president's saying today over the next 24 to 48 hours that it would be released, [4:30] and senior U.S. officials have been saying that. But the truth is we don't know exactly what is in [4:35] this agreement other than what top administration officials have hinted at. Now, what we do expect is [4:41] this formal ceremony on Friday. The president saying today that it would likely be the vice [4:45] president that would attend it here in Switzerland. And the president saying that the Strait of Hormuz [4:52] would reopen then, that traffic would get back to normal in the next 30 days or so. Now, what we [4:58] heard from senior U.S. officials today, there will not be a change in military force posture as a result [5:05] of this memorandum of understanding. So no change in military there. But there are a lot of questions [5:10] about what happens in the actual Strait of Hormuz. The vice president saying in interviews earlier [5:15] today that it will be a toll-free system. Iran's foreign ministry, though, saying today that it plans [5:21] to charge some sort of maritime service fees. So it's unclear exactly what that will mean. And then [5:26] administration officials, including the vice president, laying out this possibility of any sort [5:32] sanctions relief in this next phase of the talks if Iran does agree or does essentially tie to its [5:41] performance, to Iran's performance. And that's something that will have to be ironed out over [5:45] the next 60 days or so. There are huge questions about whether this will hold in Lebanon as well, [5:51] this ceasefire in Lebanon. And so until we get more of these details, a lot of people around the world [5:57] are watching to see how this all plays out, Monica. Yeah, Gabe, let's talk a little bit more [6:02] about that issue, the idea of these funds, because the administration has been walking this fine line [6:07] when it comes to that sanctions relief for potentially unfreezing those funds for Iran. [6:10] Because back in April, when those negotiations were taking place then, President Trump posted [6:15] explicitly, no money will exchange hands in any way, shape or form. But that doesn't really seem to be [6:21] the case now, correct? Yeah, that's right. Look, the Trump administration is very careful [6:28] not to highlight this potential for sanctions relief. But earlier today, the president was asked [6:34] about that. Let's listen to what he had to say. And also what the vice president had to say [6:38] specifically about that a little earlier today. Mr. President, does the deal involve any sanctions [6:45] relief for Iran? When would that go into effect? Well, it doesn't. Well, they have to. It's really a [6:50] behavioral thing. If they do what they're supposed to do, that starts taking effect. [6:56] If we see the Iranians making, for example, taking action to eliminate their stockpile of enriched [7:03] material, then yes, sanctions relief will follow. And clearly, Monica, that is something that we [7:11] didn't really hear from President Trump beforehand. Any sort of what the administration would have [7:16] previously referred to as paying off the Iranians. They're trying to reframe this, trying to argue [7:21] that this isn't paying off the Iranians, just simply incentivizing them to do the right thing. [7:27] But certainly a lot of questions remain over the next 60 days, including that question of nuclear [7:31] enrichment and the specifics tied to that, which, again, we're still waiting on details of that once [7:37] this text of this memorandum of understanding is released, Monica. And, Gabe, the president, of course, [7:42] has been very critical of the Obama administration for sanctions relief on Iran and unfreezing those [7:48] funds. So what is different? What are they saying is different about this agreement? [7:51] Well, look, the White House and senior U.S. officials have been repeating that the difference [8:00] between this and the JCPOA signed under the Obama administration is that this White House was [8:05] negotiating from a position of strength, whereas the Obama administration was negotiating from a [8:10] position of weakness. Certainly that is one argument, but the devil really will be in the details. [8:15] You heard from President Obama in an interview with ABC over the weekend suggesting that he thought [8:22] that the Trump administration wouldn't be able to reach an agreement that was any significantly [8:27] better than what he had reached during his administration. But the Trump White House is [8:34] downplaying that. They're saying that they have a better relationship now with the top leadership [8:39] in Iran, something that they didn't have for decades. And they think that Iran, they will not have a [8:47] nuclear weapon, even though Iran had for decades said that it wouldn't pursue a nuclear weapon and said [8:53] so under the previous agreement struck during the Obama administration. So certainly we are still [8:58] waiting for the text of that document. Yeah, that'll be really important, Gabe. Thank you for all of that [9:03] context. I do want to turn to Courtney on set with me here. Court, you've done a ton of reporting [9:08] specifically on this issue of the mines. The president says that the Strait of Hormuz can be open for business [9:14] on Friday as long as that work continues to remove them, according to him. But what does your reporting [9:19] actually say about that and how soon we could actually see the Strait safely being crossed by [9:25] vessels? So the U.S. has had a number of different intelligence streams and tips and things that there [9:32] are places where Iran laid mines before the war, was laying early on, and then even throughout the [9:38] course of the ceasefire may have been placing additional mines. The U.S. military has spent quite a bit of time [9:43] and effort to try to find those mines. And at this point, according to the officials we spoke with, [9:48] they have not pulled any mines out of the water. Now, there have been cases where they have seen [9:52] things that are circular and could possibly be mines, but they've never actually identified any [9:56] as such. And we should point out, there have been ships that have been transiting through. It's a much [10:01] smaller number than it was pre-war, but there have been some ships. So we know that there are at least [10:05] some corridors that remain open for ships to be able to safely transit. But at this point, the number of [10:11] ships that are going through still remains very, very low. If, in fact, there may be an effort to [10:16] literally sweep through the entire area and see if they can find anything visually, they have [10:20] underwater robots. But again, at this point, they've not positively identified any mines. [10:25] Would the U.S. military say right now that it feels it does have operational control over the [10:30] Strait of Hormuz? [10:30] They do. And they say that all the time. CENTCOM says that they are controlling what's going in and [10:35] out, that they're allowing some humanitarian ships in, that there's this coordination effort where [10:38] they've allowed a small number. It's usually a single-digit number every single day over the [10:43] last five or six weeks now. But yes, they would maintain that they have operational control, [10:48] even though there really are still these two competing blockades between the U.S. and Iran. [10:52] Given this current agreement that is in place, this tentative framework, how soon could troops come [10:58] home? [10:59] I mean, I don't see it as likely that the Trump administration would pull back troops out of [11:06] the region. I think that if, in fact, the blockade is to be lifted on Friday, I think we could see [11:10] some of those ships move back a little bit, potentially a little bit further back from [11:14] the Strait of Hormuz and when they're operating in sort of the northern part of the Gulf of Amman right [11:17] now. But I don't see the U.S. a major withdrawal of troops unless there is some sort of a follow-on [11:23] final agreement that includes that. [11:26] And, Court, just to some breaking news that we're just learning about right now, a crash at Edwards Air [11:31] Base in California. What else do we know about that? [11:33] We don't know a whole lot other than we've got a statement out of Edwards saying that there was a [11:37] B-52 that crashed soon after takeoff. It was a little after 11 o'clock this morning, local time [11:40] there in California. It's rare. It's very rare to hear about the crash of one of these bombers. So [11:48] we're still trying to gather some information. We don't have any information, unfortunately, [11:51] about the crew or anyone who may have been on board the aircraft when it went down. [11:54] We'll stay on top of that. Courtney and QB, as always, thank you so much. [11:58] And, Keir, I do want to turn to you now there in the region. How is this deal being viewed right [12:05] now by Tehran? And what kind of pressure are the Iranian negotiators facing on their side [12:09] to end this conflict? [12:14] Well, I would say it's three things in Iran. And we managed to get through to Iran today. [12:20] Disbelief amongst many there that this is really the end of the war. Skepticism amongst others that [12:28] the Trump administration really is committed to a ceasefire and to an end to the war and opposition [12:34] from others who do not believe that Iran should do a deal with the U.S. because they believe that [12:41] they were winning this war. Now, we did get through to a senior academic at the University of Tehran [12:49] this morning. And it was interesting to hear him talk and kind of answer that question that you [12:54] asked there, Monica. And what he says is that they say this many often in Iran, that the history [13:00] of disappointment or they would even say betrayal by U.S. governments in the past when they thought [13:08] they had deals, notably the nuclear deal, is coloring the way even the top of the leadership in Iran [13:16] is viewing this. Take a listen. [13:18] It is not something that is somehow exciting in Tehran because we do have the experience of having [13:28] kind of international dates between Iran and United States, which was JCPOA and Donald Trump himself, [13:35] withdrew from that international date. It's the first step for a kind of long, long marathon between [13:42] Iran and United States. [13:43] An interesting echo there, Monica, between what he has to say, what many in the Iranian regime are [13:51] saying, and what J.D. Vance said today, that this is going to be a step-by-step process to build [13:57] trust. Both sides are viewing it that way because there is no trust, frankly. [14:02] Yeah, zero trust. We've heard that from both sides. Now, the president did say earlier today that [14:06] the oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, but Iranian state media says that it remains in [14:12] control. So where do things stand right now? And is Iran prepared to have the Strait of Hormuz go back [14:17] to the international waterway it was before this entire war started? [14:21] Well, it depends who you ask in Iran and in the Iranian regime. And I think part of that is because, [14:29] let's be honest, the Strait of Hormuz, they've demonstrated that they can threaten the Strait [14:34] of Hormuz, which if you took a long boat ride from here, you would reach it. And it's the only way [14:39] to get from Qatar here, for example, and to ship goods and particularly oil, for example. So [14:44] Iran can threaten the Strait of Hormuz no matter what the outcome and final resolution of all of [14:51] this is. And I think another point, too, the people that you were talking to before, our great reporters, [14:57] the administration now, senior administration officials are beginning to say that, yes, [15:03] this will be financially beneficial for Iran. So if you think about it from Tehran's perspective, [15:08] either they're going to charge tolls or fees or whatever you call it around the Strait of Hormuz, [15:13] or they're hoping they'll get sanctions relief or even money that they think they're owed that has [15:19] been held away from them over the course of these negotiations. It's one or the other. [15:24] Yeah, that's a key storyline for sure that we'll be watching. I do want to also just ask you, [15:28] Keir, the president today said pretty plainly that Iran has, quote, [15:32] fully agreed to give up their nuclear weapons. But have you seen any Iranian official make that kind [15:38] of commitment as part of this initial memorandum of understanding? [15:43] Yeah, not publicly. And actually, just before you came to me, I just went through the ex-accounts of [15:51] the Speaker, Ghalibab, the foreign minister, Iraq, Xi, the president, Pazeshki, and see if [15:56] they've said anything in the past hours in relation to the nuclear. And no, they're not saying they're [16:03] going to do that. Now, I guess you could argue they wouldn't say that publicly because that is [16:08] to be discussed, to be negotiated. And there will be talks even here in Doha in the coming days, [16:14] even before the signing in Switzerland. So the answer is no. But I guess maybe watch this space. [16:22] Keir from the region, thank you so much for that and for bringing us that interview. [16:26] I want to turn now to Matt in Tel Aviv. Matt, the president has said that Israel will eventually get [16:31] on board with this deal. Even the prime minister Netanyahu said Israel isn't a signatory to the [16:36] latest agreement. What more do we know about Israel's involvement? [16:41] Well, it sounds as though it's minimal. And the fact is, is that Benjamin Netanyahu, [16:44] the prime minister, has basically been apologizing for that tonight. Not in so many words. He made [16:50] the argument, the only argument he could make, which was that this deal will still benefit Israel. [16:55] It's coming amidst a storm of criticism from Netanyahu's allies, from his opponents, [17:01] from his rivals, even from top figures in the military who aren't necessarily criticizing the [17:06] deal directly, but have vowed that they will remain in Lebanon, as well as in Gaza and the West Bank [17:12] and Syria, and will defend Israel's borders despite what looks like to Israeli media and to so many [17:20] in the political class here and to so many Israelis. We've already seen the polling numbers diving over [17:26] the past couple of weeks. It looks like a strategic failure and the punishment that the prime minister [17:33] has to reap from basically overextending his hand. [17:36] And the president did blame Israel's strikes on Beirut for delaying the signing of the deal over [17:43] the weekend. In an interview with Axios, he used many four-letter words to talk about Israeli prime [17:49] minister Benjamin Netanyahu's actions. Is there any indication that Israel is going to be pulling [17:54] back in its operation, specifically in Lebanon, Matt? [17:59] Well, they won't be pulling back from their positions just over the Israeli border with Lebanon, [18:04] inside Lebanese territory. We don't know what they're going to be doing further afield. [18:08] The Israelis have deployed quite a number of troops into Lebanon, but consistently from the [18:13] beginning and really from all the way back in March, several weeks after this offensive started [18:18] on February 28th, we've seen the Iranians trying to bundle together the Lebanon file with the broader [18:25] treaty and ceasefire deals and negotiations that have been going on between the U.S. and Israel on [18:30] one side and Iran on the other. Now, it looks as though they've done so very successfully. [18:35] And this is why here in Israel, this is widely seen as an American deal with Iran that is being [18:42] imposed on Israel against their will and against the objectives of Iran's, or excuse me, of Israel's [18:48] senior military leadership. There are so many people in this country, in prominent places, [18:54] in security positions, who are demanding that the Israelis go ahead and finish Hezbollah once and for [19:00] all. And they blame Netanyahu for not standing up to President Trump and saying, we will not be [19:07] shackled in this fight against Hezbollah. Instead, this really does look like a climb down and one in [19:13] which the Israelis participated in attacking Iran, but they didn't get a chance to sit down at the [19:18] negotiating table and craft that final deal that they're now saying basically is going to be imposed [19:24] on them. That's what the media is saying. Matt Bradley, thank you so much for your [19:28] reporting. And Brian, I want to bring you into the conversation now because this agreement has sent [19:33] oil and gas prices tumbling. So explain what we're seeing here today. Yeah, well, oil markets are [19:39] reacting sharply to this. Prices on an average barrel of oil that are trading on the commodities market, [19:44] trading at around $80 as of settlement today. And again, when you consider that we were somewhere [19:49] closer to $110 just a month ago, that is a precipitous fall and does explain why we've [19:55] already seen prices at the pump start to fall even in the lead up to this announcement. Now, [20:00] I should point out that gas prices are now $4.07. There's good reason to think as a result of the [20:06] action in oil markets today that that could fall below $4 a gallon as soon as tomorrow. But again, [20:12] the big story here is whether or not this ceasefire will hold. We don't technically have anything [20:17] signed until Friday. And everyone will kind of recall what happened in April when there was an [20:22] announcement from Iran that the Strait of Hormuz was reopened. What happened after that? It was only [20:26] one day before they then reclosed it and the U.S. blockade was put into effect. So again, the fragility [20:31] of this is something that the markets are thinking about. But at least the initial reaction is positivity [20:36] with those oil markets trading down. You touched on this, but I think the big question on a lot of [20:41] people's minds is how quickly those gas prices could come down. Do we have any sense of when they could [20:46] come down to pre-war levels? Yeah. And again, we could see sub $4 a gallon averages as soon as [20:52] tomorrow. But a lot of people will be quick to say, hey, Brian, wait, pre-war levels were somewhere [20:56] closer to $2.98. So I think that the thinking here is that if prices do fall from here, it's going to [21:03] be more like a feather as opposed to like the dropping like a rock comparison that the president [21:08] has used. Analysts who watch oil markets very closely are saying, look, you have to remember that [21:12] ships are going to have to get ready to travel back through the Strait of Hormuz. There are a lot [21:16] of insurance questions. They have to get loaded up. The infrastructure in that region has been [21:20] heavily damaged since the beginning of this war. And for that reason, you have Kepler. This is a [21:24] group that watches oil markets very closely saying 500 vessels were in the strait at the time of [21:30] writing, and it could take two to three months to return to pre-war movement, let alone pre-war supply. [21:36] So for that reason, it could be a while to get back to pre-war levels if we do ever get back there [21:40] anytime soon. Yeah, months from now, potentially close to the midterms as well. Let's talk a little [21:45] bit more about oil specifically, because we did note that it has dropped now to around $80 a barrel [21:49] from the $110 before this agreement was announced. But how much of that decline is caused by more oil [21:57] that is flowing globally? Or is this just based off of optimism around the strait starting to reopen? [22:03] Yeah, that's a great question, Monica. It really is kind of a question about how markets operate. [22:07] It's based off of future cash flows. And when you think about the fact that, yes, despite this [22:11] announcement, there are certainly not 500 ships that are trafficking through the strait today. [22:15] And in fact, we don't even know if there will be 500 ships trafficking through the strait [22:18] on Friday if this ceasefire is followed through on. It would take a long time to get there. [22:24] But what oil markets are pricing in is a light at the end of this tunnel. But again, [22:28] they priced back at $80 a barrel in April when there was the announcement from Iran that they [22:33] had reopened the strait of Hormuz. It did dip down to about $80 a barrel. But then guess what? [22:38] It shot right back up to above $100 after that was reversed. Could the same thing happen here? [22:42] If there's a U-turn on this, again, remains to be seen. We'll have to watch. [22:46] Won't be an on and off switch. Brian Chung, thank you so much for that. [22:49] We thank you for watching. And remember, stay updated on breaking news and top stories on the NBC News app [22:55] or watch live on our YouTube channel.