World Cup heatwave and ‘heat dome’ effect explained

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: is an american heat dome threatening to ruin the world cup it's definitely super hot just days after records were smashed in europe 120 million in the u.s now face extreme heat warnings over blistering [00:00:15] Speaker 2: temperatures we will need to start canceling matches halfway through if they become too [00:00:20] Speaker 1: dangerous experts say it could impact athletes and thousands of fans so what exactly is the heat dome effect why are these heat waves happening more and could this threaten the world cup here's the breakdown it's seriously hot in parts of the u.s and i'm not just talking about usual summer heat [00:00:40] Speaker 3: this is extreme we begin tonight here with this life-threatening heat wave now spreading across [00:00:45] Speaker 1: the u.s a massive heat wave is baking half the country this week is going to be very very hot the kind where experts warn it could be life-threatening to be outside for too long it's [00:00:55] Speaker 3: going to be sweltering and dangerous for anybody who's spending a long period of time outside [00:00:59] Speaker 1: unprepared for the heat the u.s is one of the host nations for this year's 2026 fifa world cup but millions of americans are currently under a heat alert let's have a closer look this is the weather forecast for u.s cities hosting world cup matches that's in fahrenheit the standard american measurement but watch this convert to degrees celsius those shades of orange and even red show the hottest places and it could be worse when you convert it to the feels like temperatures so why is this happening well it's something called a heat dome it's caused by intense high pressure that's where air sinks to the ground getting warmer as it does so and that means no clouds and day after day of sunshine heat domes are very slow moving so the extreme heat gets stuck sometimes for weeks the hot air is trapped like a lid on a pan that's the science but what does it mean in practice for tens of millions in the u.s and [00:02:01] Speaker 4: what about the world cup right now it's so so hot i'm getting dizzy there were plans in place before [00:02:08] Speaker 1: the tournament started like hydration breaks not always popular well we will analyze what we will do [00:02:15] Speaker 4: in in future tournaments of course based on this experience and we see as well the intensity of the games we've never seen 90 minutes in a tournament like this games are being played later not at the time [00:02:29] Speaker 1: when the worst heat is expected also some matches are in stadiums with air conditioning but there are [00:02:36] Speaker 3: warnings that even that won't be enough the final venue metlife stadium is not covered um and i was you know i was sat as i said in the crowd at the final last summer and it was hot you know it was it was really it was really hot and the sun is beating down on you we've seen these scenes play out in [00:02:56] Speaker 1: the uk and across europe with records smashed the hottest june ever a temperature of 37.7 degrees in norfolk the tropical overnight heat has also affected people staying around 20 degrees in france the national average temperature was also record-breaking the south of the country saw a scorching 43.6 degrees the french authorities say there have been over a thousand deaths because of the heat wave and temperature records have been broken in germany poland and the czech republic over the last week climate experts say this could become the new normal hotter for longer more extreme temperatures for a world cup that had a rocky start and one that has gone on to give us incredible moments there are now concerns that these rising temperatures could threaten to overshadow this tournament with the heat dome effect we're seeing unprecedented temperatures across europe and this u.s heat wave is impacting the world cup but what about the next one spain portugal and morocco plan to host it in june in 2030 the same month that we've just seen all these heat records smash this year and what about the euro 2028 tournament how will these rising temperatures shape the future of sport for athletes and fans to help answer those questions i'm going to bring in marina romanello she's a climate change and health expert working at university college london marina it's great to speak to you how are you doing hi thank you so much for having [00:04:35] Speaker 2: me i'm great i'm great thank you are you outside i am currently sitting outside at the pub at exeter university because i'm attending the exeter climate conference and i'm surrounded by very aggressive seagulls so you will forgive me they start yelling around me that's absolutely fine we'll make sure [00:04:52] Speaker 1: they're involved as well let's talk about this recent heat wave in the us what is the latest [00:05:00] Speaker 2: that you know about that yeah listen we are seeing uh this kind of exceptional extremes of heat all around the world we've experienced that here last week in the uk was brutal during london climate action week we've seen record high temperatures and now it's hitting the us as well with very high temperatures uh in the middle of what is the world cup the male football world cup where we're expecting to see so many people outside and celebrating and in stadiums and in queues so we're seeing this high of heat and these extreme weather events hitting us more and more as a result of human cost climate change and i was just listening to someone here at the conference where i'm at saying this is the mildest weather we will experience moving forward the mildest weather right now you mean in the 20s we will experience moving forward we will it will get more and more intense as time goes by because we know that we're now committed to further global heating to further climate change so things will get even worse so we've got this [00:06:10] Speaker 1: world cup going on at the moment but we know that other competitions we've got the euros in 2028 in the uk the world cup next time is in morocco spain and portugal in 2030 is the future going to make these type of [00:06:26] Speaker 2: events more challenging certainly we're going to find more and more instances in which if these events keep on happening particularly in the summer months we're going to see these extreme temperatures putting players and fans increasingly at risk we had already a world cup in qatar which was shifted to be in the winter uh locally in in the northern hemisphere and we're going to have to see a lot more of that happening we have to get a lot more serious about what we can safely do when it comes to outdoor sporting activities and any public events we also talk about kind of concerts if glastonbury had happened this year in the uk it would have happened in the midst of a brutal heat wave i've been to glastonbury before i would not have wanted to be there under those conditions so any type of public events especially those that happen outdoors but any big mass mobilization of people will need to rethink about that in the context of climate change and the associated risk to make sure that they can safely go forward let's talk about [00:07:32] Speaker 1: what's happening in the us right now when you see those graphs and when you see those forecasts of it goes orange it goes red it goes dark red what does that mean and what does that mean for the [00:07:45] Speaker 2: temperatures we're expecting so we have these weather forecasts that are really really good and these weather forecasts are now telling us what the temperature is throughout the day that we can expect they're telling us what the actual temperature is expected to be we're also very getting very good at understanding better what the heat that we're going to be exposed to will be and that is what sometimes get confused but there's a difference between temperature and the heat that we're exposed to because it's not just about temperature it's about sun exposure so solar radiation it's about wind wind speed and it's about humidity and these warnings that we're getting are looking at all of that information together and giving us alerts of how dangerous the conditions are going to come during the during the day and the upcoming days and they're really useful information for us to to protect ourselves to change our behavior to reduce the risk of adverse health impacts what we call heat stress heat related illness or what can lead to what is a potentially lethal heat stroke that's a medical emergency that requires urgent and immediate attention otherwise it leads to death so those warnings are not just colorful graphs they are potentially life-saving alerts that should affect and we should respond to by changing our behavior by protecting us from the heat and should affect also authorities in terms of changing certain events certain behaviors and protecting the population from what has become a pretty dangerous condition [00:09:22] Speaker 1: so if you have the temperature is that likely to be lower than the heat we're seeing so for example if you have the temperature at say 32 could the heat be a lot worse so 35 36 maybe [00:09:37] Speaker 2: that's exactly right and that's what you hear sometimes being referred to as the feel like temperature sometimes it's higher than the actual what the thermometer tells you and that is what we need to pay attention to because that is the parameter that will tell you well is your body at risk uh and and that's what gives us [00:09:54] Speaker 1: the alert that feels like then what um level can it get to where the human body is saying no that's enough [00:10:06] Speaker 2: this is too much yeah well there's different estimates about what the lethal level of heat is and obviously every individual is different but there's some very clear very kind of um well described thresholds where we know that we need to start changing our behaviors so when this west bulb globe temperature that is called technically this feel like temperature goes about 26 degrees celsius we already know that we need to take more breaks that we cannot be doing such intense physical activity that we need to start protecting ourselves and when it goes about 28 30 and beyond 30 then that is a dangerous level of heat where you need to start considering not playing the sport protecting yourself from the heat changing your behavior about 32 degrees that gets actually dangerous and there's a high risk of heat stress and heat [00:10:59] Speaker 1: stroke when we get to that level let's delve into those conditions then you talked about heat stroke this always confuses me actually because you can get i think it's heat exhaustion and then heat stroke which way round is it and how much more dangerous is it heat exhaustion comes first then it can lead to [00:11:19] Speaker 2: heat stroke and heat stroke is when your body cannot longer cool itself when you've gone beyond that capacity of your body to cool down and your core temperature your internal temperature starts exceeding generally it's kind of that 40 degree threshold where you start experiencing confusion seizures you might faint you might collapse and if you're not cooled down really rapidly that can lead to death you will die that's it yeah but essentially yes if you're not if it's not treated that's an absolute medical emergency so that's why it's so important to be aware of the early signs of heat stress heat exhaustion and heat stroke that's why it's so important to have a prepared health systems prepared staff to identify those situations and to ensure that we're really ready to respond but above everything ensure that we don't have to respond to that level that we can protect ourselves way before the heat stroke hits at the point where we can reduce the risk of heat stress by undertaking very sensible measures and protecting ourselves from the heat because we know it's here we have the alerts as you just mentioned we've seen that fifa have got [00:12:33] Speaker 1: some things in place for the world cup already so we've seen those hydration breaks where players have been taking on water or other hydration as well and we've also seen some stadiums in the us have air conditioning for example what other measures do you think need to be in place for not just players but for the fans who are going to all of these big events what needs to be in place yeah listen you just said it [00:13:04] Speaker 2: right we have some measures around the players when they need to take breaks just in tennis as well we have some new regulations that will tell you well they can have a break if it goes about certain threshold uh in in most matches um and air conditioning really helps indoors when they're playing what is a really physically intense activity which heats the body from inside so it's not just the outside heat it's the body that you're generating and that you cannot release because it's so hot outside so the measures around place are really important and getting players physiologically adapted to heat is really important when they come to play in a hot country and most coaches will do it do that most coaches will be aware of the fact that they need to be acclimatized um to the place that they will be playing but we pay much less attention to what happens to the fans because oftentimes the fans are in big stadiums perhaps in in a seat that is exposed to the sun if there's air conditioning in the stadium they might be enjoying the air conditioning indoors but oftentimes what happens is that they have to queue outside before they get into the stadium often in the sun often with not enough access to cooling or shading and even those fans that are not at the stadium those fans that go to the pub those fans that move around in public transport to get to see the match or to go to see the match in person fans that are drinking alcohol which also increases the risk of heat stress because it it dehydrates us effectively so the whole ecosystem around a huge event is at risk and individuals inside and outside of the playing pitch are at risk so there's tons of measures that can be put in place the first one is very clear alerts and taking this very seriously we will need to start cancelling matches halfway through if they become too dangerous but that doesn't help the the the expectations and the fans that are already in the stadium and that already being exposed so we need to do this with much better planning and we need to put in place measures like adequate shading everywhere adequate cooling places that fans can go to even when they're outside of the stadium and above everything we need to start adapting our behavior and our cities we need to start providing much more green spaces green spaces and trees are incredibly efficient at reducing the temperature in urban spaces much more than artificial shading and they're great for climate change they're great for mental health so we need to plant trees everywhere we need to ensure that we have access to cooling and that we have access to hydration and that we're telling people don't go out very clearly when temperatures have become dangerous because sometimes there's nothing that you can do if you're walking down the street there's a huge bus throwing heat at you or a lot of air conditioning units around you in a city that increase the urban heat what we call the urban heat island effect that's very difficult to get away from if you're moving from one place to the next so sometimes it's about staying at home or going to a cool place and [00:16:13] Speaker 1: staying there if conditions have become dangerous you're an expert in this field you're so passionate [00:16:18] Speaker 2: about it are we doing enough in one word no not nearly enough but we're not doing nearly enough and we know what we should be doing we know how to do more better and faster so how frustrating is that it's incredibly frustrating because you know what happens is the same as with every um predicted emergency you know what you should be doing to avoid those deaths and then when the death hits that is when we start thinking oh we should have planted more trees so we better so it doesn't happen again but that's irreversible so we need to start being much um faster and much much more serious at responding to the science that we have we have outstanding science that tells us exactly what we should be doing to increase our adaptation we know that for example air conditioning is really useful to cool indoor spaces but we know that it's not the right choice or it shouldn't be the first choice because we have much better sustainable solutions like for example window shutters like uh passive cooling measures like green spaces which i already mentioned like increasing airflow in buildings that will reduce the need for air conditioning and that would also allow us to adapt to the heat what happens oftentimes when we are dependent on air conditioning is two things one we're not prepared for uh hot weather because we're expecting to be indoors so we don't dress appropriately we don't acclimatize to hot weather if we're spending most of our day in a very cool environment and when we go out it's so much worse and the second thing that happens is that where does the heat that the air conditioning unit takes from inside go it goes to the outside it goes to the street it goes to the city so those people that are not inside the air conditioned environment are exposed to so much higher temperatures as a result of those using it so it generates huge inequalities and huge risks in the outdoor environment when we depend so much on air conditioning so it should be used but only when necessary and we should be much better at sustainable cooling solutions fans as i said window shutters etc in the us they're seeing these really high [00:18:38] Speaker 1: temperatures potentially looking at the forecast as well we could be seeing these temperatures again next week is there something particular going on with this year the geography nerd in me has to ask about el nino is that potentially why we're seeing it a little bit worse this year [00:19:01] Speaker 2: potentially yes that's very very likely that el nino is playing about with our weather already uh and we're already seeing kind of those effects in in these very extreme temperatures there's also climate change and that is the main driver which el nino acts on top of right but you have that base increase in in in heat exposure events that comes from human cost climate change from our burning of fossil fuels from our emission emission activities and to give you a sense of what that looks like with the lancet countdown that is the group that i lead we've done a study that we published last year and we found that on average every person around the world on average is today exposed to about 19 days of heat waves per year yeah and that 84 percent of those days of heat wave exposure per person wouldn't have occurred if it were not for anthropogenic climate change so we're almost exclusively exposed to heat wave because of climate change the climate change that we've caused of this level of heat so we're now as i said at the beginning in a situation in which further heating is now committed we will see further temperature increase and that means that these heat events will become more intense more frequent and more dangerous so we need to start being very very serious about how we're going to adapt because as i said before this is the mildest climate that we will continue to experience in our lifetimes so we can expect it to become so much more and adaptation is fundamentally important [00:20:38] Speaker 1: and marina just one of the final points that i wanted to get to you on is that adaptation are we going to have to get used to say not going out in the middle of the day cancelling events um adapting our buildings spending loads of money to do so is this now the new normal look that can become a reality [00:21:03] Speaker 2: for sure um many people um in italy uh are already choosing to stay indoors during the current heat wave and i have family members there that have decided not to go out during the days of heat wave because they just cannot cope with the heat so that will spontaneously become something that we might start doing more and more should we have sorry should we have um should we have maximum temperatures we should have maximum temperatures for given things so for example for workers workers that are in very physically active sectors of employment or that wear a lot of ppe that makes them cool down less efficiently that's the personal protective equipment isn't it the personal protective equipment that's it so the protective clothing that they need to wear which sometimes is really really heavy um definitely we need much more serious thresholds for those workers we need thresholds for children in schools because we know that our school infrastructure here in the uk is not very well prepared to cope with the heat we need those thresholds to protect people for sure and we don't yet have them and as you were saying before we start we need to start retrofitting our buildings we will need to start using more air conditioning and that will become at a huge expense but one thing that is important to remember is that as we continue to emit greenhouse gases and burn fossil fuels it will get worse and each unit of greenhouse gas that we emit will make the cost of adaptation higher we make the risks to our health and will make the unavoidable impacts a lot more severe so we need to adapt but we also need to urgently reduce greenhouse gas emissions to make adaptation possible and effective are you hopeful we can do that i know we can do it i'm not sure we will choose to do it but i know we can do it that was a diplomatic [00:22:58] Speaker 1: answer but i liked it marina great to speak to you thank you so much indeed thank you so much for having me that's the breakdown thanks for watching see you next time