War usually boosts presidents. Why isn’t it helping Trump?

[0:00] I'm Harry Enten and we are running all the numbers on why war isn't helping Trump and [0:04] you won't see this on air. [0:06] Why is there not a rally around the flag event for Donald Trump? [0:10] In fact, you look at these numbers, they're absolutely bonkers. [0:14] There's been the opposite of a rally around the flag event. [0:16] Look at this. [0:17] Net approval change due to actions in Iran. [0:19] If you look a month in back during the Iranian hostage crisis, look at this. [0:23] Jimmy Carter saw his net approval rating jump up by 32 points. [0:28] It was a massive, massive rally around the flag event. [0:31] But look at this. [0:32] Trump's net approval rating, it's actually down. [0:34] It's actually down one, two, three, four points. [0:39] Four points since the beginning of the war in Iran. [0:43] And indeed, you can look at wars during the last 35 years in the Middle East and you see [0:48] the same story. [0:49] That is usually you see rally around the flag events. [0:52] You're not seeing that here. [0:53] Look at this. [0:54] One month change in net approval ratings during the Iran war, the Iraq war, and the [0:58] Gulf War. [0:59] Both of these, of course, being fought with Iraq. [1:02] And look at this. [1:03] Again, you see Trump here, four points under war. [1:05] Look at this with George W. Bush, 14 points above, that is, his net approval rating jumped [1:10] by 14 points. [1:12] And look at George H.W. Bush. [1:14] My goodness gracious, a jump of 31 points in just a month's time from the start of the [1:20] Gulf War to a month in. [1:23] So we see that Donald Trump is very, very much the outlier here. [1:27] Now. [1:28] This is making my brain. [1:29] And you know, this is something that is very difficult for me to do because there's a lot [1:32] going on there, some of which is absolutely bonkers. [1:36] You know, I just think about all those old 90s sitcoms. [1:38] And I did, in my mind, find one instance recently of an event, a foreign policy event in Asia [1:48] in which we see numbers that are similar in terms of this shift for Donald Trump. [1:52] Look at this. [1:53] Look at this shift that we see here. [1:54] Okay. [1:56] Net approval rating change. [1:57] One month. [1:58] The Iran war began. [1:59] Look at this. [2:00] February, late February. [2:01] Now we see Trump down by four points. [2:03] Look at this. [2:04] Look at the shift that we saw for Joe Biden upon the Afghanistan exit, right when we took [2:10] our troops out of Afghanistan. [2:12] Look at that. [2:13] Joe Biden saw a drop in his net approval rating of six points. [2:17] Very similar to what we see with Donald Trump right now in terms of his net approval rating [2:21] when it comes to a month into the Iran war. [2:26] And of course, Joe Biden. [2:27] Joe Biden's presidency. [2:28] At least politically speaking, was basically over the day after we had that Afghanistan [2:33] exit. [2:34] He never recovered. [2:36] His net approval rating never, ever recovered from the drop that he saw after the Afghanistan [2:42] exit. [2:43] We'll see if that's the case with Donald John Trump. [2:45] But what I can say is, why? [2:47] What is going on? [2:48] Why is Trump not seeing the rise in his net approval ratings that we often see when it [2:53] comes to foreign policy activities, that is, that rally around the flag event when we see [2:57] the starts of wars? [2:58] Well, I think this might give you a pretty good indication why. [3:01] Okay. [3:02] First off, this war, it's not popular and it's becoming less popular. [3:07] Look at this. [3:08] Net approval rating, U.S. military action in Iran. [3:10] At the start of the war, if you took a look at the average of polls, look at that Enten's [3:14] aggregate at the top of your screen. [3:15] You know, I like throwing my name on everything. [3:17] Look at this. [3:18] At the start of the war, 12 points on the order. [3:21] It was not a popular war to begin with, but at least you could find a poll or two where [3:25] at least it was breaking even. [3:27] There was even one poll that meets CNN standards. [3:29] This publication where, in fact, the war was slightly more popular than not. [3:33] That was an Ipsos poll or excuse me, that was a Washington Post poll. [3:36] But look at this. [3:37] Look at this. [3:38] Now. [3:39] Now, look at this. [3:41] Down we go. [3:42] Down we go. [3:43] We've seen a 10 point drop, a 10 point drop in about a month's time when it comes to how [3:49] popular this war is. [3:51] It has become even less popular and it wasn't popular to start off with. [3:56] But that's not all that's in the kitchen. [3:58] That's not all what the rock is cooking. [4:00] Another reason why that we have not seen the rally around the flag event occurring for [4:05] Donald Trump, why his net approval ratings have been dropping, why his approval ratings [4:08] have been dropping is you see it here in terms of the war becoming less popular. [4:13] But there's a big reason why the war is becoming less popular. [4:16] And it comes to this. [4:17] Look at this. [4:18] Say the war is worth the cost about at this point in the war. [4:22] Look at this. [4:23] Just 29 percent, just 29 percent, we are talking less than a third of the public say that the [4:31] Iran war is worth the cost. [4:33] Look how different that is from the Iraq war about a month. [4:37] Look at that. [4:39] About at this point in the war. [4:40] 59 percent. [4:41] Look at that. [4:42] We're talking about only half the level of Americans say that the Iran war is worth the [4:47] cost. [4:48] No wonder Donald Trump is not seeing a rally around the flag event. [4:53] Because this is unlike any other war that I can remember in which we're looking at the [4:57] data in which at this point the American people are against the war and they simply put don't [5:03] think the war is worth the cost. [5:06] There's no way with these numbers that Donald Trump's approval ratings would in fact be [5:09] going up. [5:10] Of course, there is collateral damage going on here because one of the chief architects [5:15] of this war is the Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, okay? [5:21] And these numbers, again, just look at this. [5:25] This is not, this isn't just on a different planet. [5:28] This is not just Artemis going around the moon. [5:31] No, no. [5:32] This is in a totally different galaxy. [5:34] It's in a totally different galaxy. [5:36] Look at this. [5:37] Secretary of Defense's net popularity one month into the Gulf War, Iraq War, Iran War. [5:42] Look at this. [5:44] Pete Hegseth, 30 points underwater. [5:47] 30 points underwater. [5:49] What? [5:51] Look at that compared to Donald Rumsfeld about a month into the Iraq War. [5:54] He was 48 points above water. [5:57] Do some quick math with me here. [5:58] Look at this. [5:59] 30, 48. [6:00] What is that? [6:01] That's a nearly 80 point difference. [6:03] Nearly an 80 point difference in terms of the net popularity of these two Secretaries [6:08] of Defenses or Secretaries of Defense. [6:11] I always get confused with that, where that ass goes. [6:13] Anyway, Pete Hegseth, look at this, way below him. [6:16] But look at this. [6:17] Remember, Dick Cheney was the Secretary of Defense during the Gulf War and about a month [6:21] in, his net popularity was 62 points above water. [6:26] We're talking an over 90 point difference with Pete Hegseth right now. [6:31] Dick Cheney was very popular. [6:32] Very, very popular. [6:35] Pete Hegseth is anything but. [6:36] They will not be throwing parades for Pete Hegseth based upon his popularity rating at [6:40] this point. [6:41] Indeed, this minus 30 points for Pete Hegseth, well, it marks a milestone for him, but not [6:47] in the way you want milestones. [6:49] Because look at this. [6:50] Look at this. [6:51] Pete Hegseth's net approval rating, this is on our CNN and SSRS poll, that minus 30 points, [6:56] guess what? [6:57] That marks, dun dun dun dun, the lowest of his tenure as Defense Secretary. [7:03] That is, there has not been a single poll in which Pete Hegseth has been less popular [7:08] than he is now about a month into the Iran War. [7:11] So he has only become less popular the same way that Donald John Trump has become less [7:16] popular thanks to this Iran War. [7:20] Now to button this all up, to button this all up, what I will say is that it's not just [7:26] collateral damage towards Pete Hegseth, it's collateral damage when it comes to Trump's [7:31] own ratings. [7:32] Own ratings. [7:33] There are two key issues, both of which are related to the Iran War. [7:37] Look at this. [7:38] Okay. [7:39] Turn two lows in Trump's net approval ratings. [7:41] Look at this. [7:42] On the economy, we're now talking Trump being 27 points under, remember, Donald Trump was [7:49] reelected, reelected to a second term because voters trust him on the economy. [7:55] They remember what they thought were good times during his first term, and the economy [7:59] of course was the key issue, the key issue during the 2024 campaign. [8:03] Trump beat Kamala Harris on that issue and therefore won the election. [8:10] Foreign policy. [8:11] Of course, this is a foreign policy exercise, what's going on in Iran right now. [8:16] Look at this, 25 points under water, 25 points under water. [8:23] So what you have is a foreign policy that is in fact impacting the economy because you've [8:30] seen those gas prices climb ever higher, we have spoken about that, inflation of course [8:35] being so key. [8:36] The cost of living being so key. [8:38] The number one economic issue. [8:40] It is still at the top of the list. [8:42] So unless Trump is able to solve this problem, well, he won't be the only one who's upset [8:48] about these numbers if in fact he believes them. [8:50] Of course, he only tends to believe good polls for them. [8:53] But Republicans in Congress, Republicans in Congress will, they will face big repercussions [9:01] in the midterm elections if this number holds. [9:04] So this has been me running all the numbers. [9:06] You'll like what you see. [9:08] Leave a comment. [9:09] Let me know what we should cover next time, and then we'll do exactly that.