US-sanctioned ships pass Strait of Hormuz as China calls Trump's blockade 'dangerous' — BBC News

[0:00] let's update you on what is happening right now in the strait of hormuz with the latest [0:05] ship tracking data that's been analyzed by bbc verify showing that four iran-linked tankers [0:11] have crossed the strait despite washington's naval blockade two of those ships have visited [0:16] iranian ports that's according to marine traffic its data shows a bulk carrier the christiania [0:22] crossing the strait on monday having called at the port of bad amman homini china the biggest [0:28] buyer of iranian oil describing the u.s restricting access to iran's ports as irresponsible and [0:35] dangerous and what we've been hearing from the pakistani capital islamabad as well reports that [0:39] the next round of talks may take place this week or early next week to extend the current two-week [0:45] ceasefire so far neither washington nor tehran have made any formal comments on this next round of [0:51] negotiations but we're watching out for that and we'll bring you any comments as soon as we get them [0:56] well james parkin is a retired rear admiral in the royal navy with iranian linked ships managing to [1:02] get through the strait of hormuz he told me what he thinks is going on on the strait i think the most [1:08] important thing for your viewers to note is that this is a blockade of iran's ports rather than a [1:15] blockage of the strait of hormuz and as a result much of the action and activity in that area of the [1:23] world is going to be uh calibrated by how ships try and escape the blockade and the four ships that have [1:31] gone through the strait today indicate that perhaps it's not being as enforced as strictly as might [1:36] otherwise be the case so what we're seeing at the moment is a policy from the u.s naval navy of [1:41] deterrence james rather than enforcement well it's an interesting uh analogy because one of the things that [1:48] has been apparent in the last few weeks is that despite quite a lot of the rhetoric the strait of [1:52] hormuz is not actually blocked it's not blocked physically there's no evidence of any mines being [1:58] laid but what has happened is that civilian shipping companies have been deterred from transiting the [2:03] strait of hormuz because of the danger of attack from iranian forces in particular i see no evidence that [2:11] that deterrence has been dialed down at all and merchant shipping companies who are perhaps [2:17] connected with non-iranian ports and non-iranian cargoes have so far been extremely reluctant to go [2:25] through the straits because of both the shipping insurance impact and also the risk of attack or [2:31] damage to their cargoes so for a blockade to be uh legal and effective it does have to be enforced [2:38] and certainly for the first 12 or so hours of the blockade that doesn't appear to be the case [2:44] what is the biggest danger right now i think there are two dangers that leap out as to courses of [2:51] action that may take place danger number one i think is that the ships and the assets that the [2:58] u.s navy have assembled to enforce the blockade are not able to do that blockades themselves are [3:04] actually a matter of international law and one of the elements that has to be fulfilled for this to [3:08] be a legal blockade is it has to be effective and if four ships have gone through already linked [3:15] with iranian cargoes that have not been stopped not been boarded that implies that the u.s navy [3:19] at the moment is struggling to have sufficient assets in the area to be able to enforce the blockade [3:25] itself so i think danger number one is that the iranian ships continue to get through and the u.s [3:32] forces perhaps slightly overreact in order to counter the narrative that the blockade is not being [3:37] enforced perhaps the second and more dangerous but less likely course of action is that the [3:44] non-iranian linked ships which are free to pass under the u.s navy's notice to mariners to non-iranian [3:52] ports when they start to go through and they've been reassured that they are subject to attack by [3:57] iranian forces that would be the worst of all worlds because it would show that the merchant shipping [4:02] community is not free to proceed that the u.s navy has told them to do and the iranians are reopening [4:09] hostilities against both ships and potentially ports in the region how much of the concern is it [4:15] james and we've talked about it a lot but if you're actually out there and you're the u.s navy that it's [4:20] not always possible to identify these ships that there's false flags and you don't know necessarily [4:26] where they're going because they could turn off their tracking data well that's a uh that's a really [4:30] good point from an open source intelligent point of view but in reality uh modern armed forces know [4:39] very well where every ship has been and to whom it is connected from your reporting earlier on today [4:46] you discussed a false flagged vessel flagged with the commerce islands which is actually not a registry that [4:54] i believe has that ship on its books but actually u.s navy the uk maritime trade organization which is [5:00] the global leader in tracking merchant marine traffic in that area of the world they have a very good [5:07] understanding of which ships have gone where where their cargoes are from and where they have been [5:13] even if their destination is slightly opaque so there is little danger that ships will be misidentified [5:19] from the u.s side there is however a danger of targeting if iran chooses to reopen strikes [5:26] attacks and attacks on vessels going through the straits