US-Iran ceasefire talks face major setbacks as Israel strikes fuel Lebanon tensions : Analysis

[0:00] abbas aslani is a senior research fellow at the center for middle east strategic studies he joins [0:05] us now from tehran so is there still an agreement a common understanding even of what the starting [0:15] point is what the basis for negotiations is between the us and iran uh sami uh the ceasefire [0:28] agreement seems to be very fragile uh because just day one we saw that uh there were exchange of fire [0:36] as well as you know the difference in the interpretation of the framework of the upcoming [0:42] negotiations uh as we as i speak uh you know sources here quoted by iranian media reject the [0:51] reports of an iranian delegation arriving in pakistan for talks with the united states [0:56] the iranian side is saying that the talks could be suspended by the time that the us is committed [1:02] to the terms of the ceasefire agreement and by the time that israel continues the strikes in lebanon [1:09] and uh this is uh in the case that how difficult the upcoming talks will be and uh just to clarify [1:18] you're saying you're hearing uh that that from the iranian side yes they might they might suspend [1:26] the talks are you are you suggesting that they may not have those talks in pakistan on saturday [1:31] the iranians may not show up for it is what you're hearing uh sami sami they did not precisely say [1:40] that they will suspend the talks but they say that up to now uh you know it is suspended by the time [1:47] that the us complies with the terms of the agreement and israel you know uh stops you know strikes in [1:55] lebanon so they you know the talks can be held in pakistan but what iran wants to make sure that [2:02] if the us wants to come to islamabad and to talk with the iranian delegation they have to you know [2:08] push israel to to stop the strikes in lebanon and they insist that lebanon has been included in the [2:15] framework that was earlier discussed between the two sides so it sounds like the issue of israeli attacks [2:25] on lebanon is a something of a deal breaker to the iranian side is that how you're seeing it yes [2:36] iran has been saying you know israel as a spoiler in the process not just now but in the previous [2:42] rounds of negotiations and uh you know one of the major conditions that the one uh proposed in the [2:50] ten-point plan was that the ceasefire must have been you know adopted in the whole uh front including [2:57] in lebanon because post 2024 ceasefire between israel and lebanon we have been seeing violations from [3:05] the israeli side so that's why iran this time wants to make sure that this will include lebanon but in [3:11] addition to that there have been also some uh discussions on the framework of the uh upcoming [3:18] talks uh the u.s president even inside initially they said that the ten-point plan provided by iran [3:26] can be a workable uh framework for those discussions and uh but so far we the lebanon issue seems to [3:36] to be the most important sticking point as we are expecting to see if the uh talks in islamabad [3:43] will convene or not there may be other stumbling blocks they're heading towards when you look at [3:49] the latest posts on social media by the us president donald trump because he's now he's posted a [3:56] series of warnings to iran writing on truth socially said there are reports that iran is charging fees to [4:04] tankers going through the hormuz strait they better not be and if they are they better stop now in a [4:14] second post trump said iran will never have a nuclear weapon and he wrote you'll see oil start [4:21] flowing with or without the help of iran now abbas when you compare that to what we've heard from [4:27] ayatollah mojtaba khamenei about how he's saying there will be a new phase he's calling it for managing [4:36] the strait of hormuz are the two sides of the us in iran heading towards a dead end or a stumbling block [4:41] on that issue on the issue of the nuclear weapons i think the both sides can see eye to eye but on [4:51] straight of hormones the uh remarks by the american president has been somehow conflicting earlier [4:59] he didn't seem to be opposing this iran position this was also among the major conditions put in [5:05] 10-point plan uh but uh as you said the rena leader is saying that the uh management of the [5:13] strait of hormones is entering into a new phase and iran believes that there is a geopolitical reset [5:20] for the strait and this cannot return to the status quo this is uh this seems to be one of the most [5:27] important issues that iran insists that needs to to you know to remain in place because tehran assumes [5:35] that this is a leverage that could be used now and in future it is it could be also a source of revenue [5:41] to reconstruct the country following the recent aggression and uh we have to uh this was also [5:49] in the that in a 10-point plan which the u.s president assumed as a workable framework uh but [5:56] we have to be waiting to see how discussions unfold in islamabad and what they see what they [6:01] say in details in this on this topic all right and coming back to the lebanon track it's been reported [6:08] today the israeli prime minister said he he wants talks with lebanon it's been suggested that that [6:15] could lead to something of a quietening if not a ceasefire um on the lebanese front but would would [6:24] iran accept a situation in which it goes to talks in pakistan but is told we're not talking about [6:33] lebanon that's being handled separately between israel and lebanon directly is would that be a loss of [6:41] of influence leverage for iran if it cannot link its ceasefire to a ceasefire in lebanon and [6:50] demonstrate that it has the ability to impose its will as far away as in lebanon too uh sami if it's [7:01] related to the lebanese government to hold negotiations with other parties including with israel that's [7:08] up to them i think iran uh will not interfere in this issue but in terms of you know attacks against [7:15] lebanon or on hezbollah and the iran wants to make sure that this will stop tehran has been in [7:22] contact with hezbollah ahead of the islamabad talks they have received the reservations considerations [7:29] or the red lines from the hezbollah side and the one thing which is important is that israel has [7:36] been trying to adopt a model toward hezbollah in the past you know a few months or years which is [7:42] despite 2024 you know ceasefire they have been attacking several times lebanon and they want to [7:52] keep this model toward the region anytime they come to anywhere and to kill or target any location [7:58] nor kill any person so that's why it's important for hezbollah as well as iran to stop this you know [8:05] trend and this cycle so uh this is uh you know in a bigger picture not just limited to lebanon but [8:15] could be adopted toward region other parts of the resistance front and iran does not want to see that [8:21] post you know agreement israel will attack different parts of the resistance front in future trying to [8:28] weaken undermine the front okay abbas aslani senior research fellow at the center for middle east [8:34] strategic studies thanks for joining us