US begins blockade on Iranian ports after peace talks fail — BBC News

[0:03] hello i'm lucy hawkins in the qatari capital doha it is day 45 of the u.s israel war with iran [0:10] and over the next 15 minutes or so we'll bring you up to date with the latest developments [0:14] and what they could mean for the conflict so let's start with some of the main developments [0:19] today president trump has threatened to eliminate iranian attack ships approaching his blockade of [0:24] iranian ports in the strait of hormuz we can't let a country blackmail or extort uh the world [0:33] because that's what they're doing they're really blackmailing the world we're not going to let that [0:36] happen the failure of peace talks over the weekend has caused another surge in oil prices as iran [0:43] calls the blockade piracy and threatens to retaliate the israeli prime minister says he supports [0:50] president trump's blockade officials from israel and lebanon preparing to hold direct talks in [0:55] washington and pope leo says he will continue to speak out against the war after fierce criticism [1:02] from donald trump a u.s blockade of the iranian coastline has come into force after the failure [1:12] of peace talks between the u.s and iran at the weekend the u.s says all vessels will be subject [1:18] to interception diversion and capture except those transiting the strait of hormuz to and from non-iranian [1:25] ports the straight to remind you is a critical shipping route through which roughly 20 percent of [1:31] the world's oil and natural liquefied gas is transported as well as other key goods such as [1:36] jet fuel and fertilizer shortly after the blockade began president trump took to truth social and this [1:43] is what he posted he called a warning for fast attack iranian vessels writing if any of these [1:50] ships come close anywhere close to our blockade they will be immediately eliminated well before we discuss [1:58] all of this further we thought it would be useful to give you an idea of just how many iranian ports [2:02] there are in the area you can see here kag island which we've already heard a lot about during the [2:07] war but there are a number of others dotted all along the coast including jabaha and the gulf of [2:12] oman moving up into the strait of homuz you have banda abbas there as you can see and many more along [2:18] the coast including levan imam homini and korama shah well president trump was asked about the blockade [2:26] a short time ago let's have a listen mr president as far as the naval blockade is concerned what's the [2:31] end game is it to force iran back to the negotiating table is it to open up the strait so that gas prices [2:38] ultimately come down maybe everything i mean both of those things certainly and more we can't let a [2:44] country blackmail or extort uh the world because that's what they're doing they're really blackmailing [2:51] the world we're not going to let that happen so what is donald trump hoping to achieve from the [2:56] blockade what are the risks as well ben chu from bbc verify has been taking a look donald trump's [3:02] blockade of the strait of hormuz has begun and this is the picture of the strait using live ship tracking [3:09] information shortly after the blockade was imposed and unsurprisingly it's showing not much moving [3:15] through now the us military has clarified the blockade will apply only to vessels going to or from [3:21] iranian port so what's it intended to achieve well let's look at some context this shows the number of [3:28] vessels passing through the strait each day since the war began and you can see a pickup since the [3:33] ceasefire was announced on the 8th of april now the red bars here show iranian linked vessels as [3:41] identified by bbc verify now this is approximate there might be some iranian linked vessels not identified and [3:48] some ships turn off their tracking data however you can see that iranian linked vessels clearly account [3:53] for a considerable share of the vessels making the crossing now shipping of oil from gulf nations such [4:01] as iraq and kuwait has collapsed since the war began as iran has effectively closed the straits of [4:07] them through threats but tehran has continued to allow ships carrying its own cargo through the waterway [4:14] since the first of march iran has been able to ship around 58.7 million barrels of crude so [4:21] around one and a half million barrels a day and analysts estimate that those oil sales have been [4:26] earning the regime in tehran around 139 million dollars a day and it's this source of earnings [4:32] which donald trump is hoping to cut off to put pressure on iran though it's worth noting that 90 [4:39] if iranian oil goes to china on the one hand this could induce beijing itself to put pressure on iran [4:45] to negotiate and fully open the strait but there are risks will the us seize or blockade chinese [4:51] tankers carrying iranian oil some of which have crossed the strait since the war began and will the [4:57] us navy be able to accurately identify vessels that have been to iranian ports and will non-iranian [5:03] vessels which the us wants to cross be willing to travel through while this blockade is in place [5:09] there's also a clear risk to global oil prices earlier in this conflict the us lifted sanctions [5:15] on iranian oil to try to keep down global oil prices if this blockade is successful in removing [5:21] one and a half million barrels per day of iranian oil from the global market on top of the roughly [5:26] eight million barrels of a day that have been lost due to the collapse in traffic through the [5:30] hormones strait then the global oil supply crunch will deepen that's why global oil prices jump back [5:36] above 100 after trump announced the blockade at the weekend and analysts say it could easily go higher [5:43] especially if iran retaliates by resuming strikes on gulf oil production facilities so while trump [5:49] hopes the blockade will put pressure on iran there are clearly big escalation dangers too so how exactly [5:59] will the blockade work well let's talk to our security correspondent frank gardner who joins us frank [6:04] i appreciate there's a lot that we still don't know and we're learning more as the hours go by but [6:09] take us through the logistics of this sure well this is an extreme measure that is a reaction to another [6:16] extreme measure iran's partial blockade of the strait of hormuz what the us is doing is not blockading the [6:23] strait of hormuz per se even though it may have had that ultimate effect it's blockading iran's ports [6:30] and you saw from the map there all up and down it's got iran has by far and away the largest coastline [6:36] of any gulf state far bigger even than saudi arabia and that coastline extends all the way out into [6:43] the arabian sea down there on the bottom right you can see the red and green dots of ships struck [6:49] that are stuck both sides of it of the strait of hormuz which is the narrow bit and how will this work [6:55] in practice is that the u.s i think will be hoping according to um serving and former naval officers [7:03] to do a kind of repeat of what it did off venezuela last year namely it'll be boarding ships or diverting [7:11] them forcing them to stop quite difficult in the terms of a tanker because they often take about [7:15] three miles five kilometers to to stop or turn around but they will be looking to drop troops [7:22] uh marines by helicopter that kind of thing um if any ship decides to run that gauntlet [7:29] now iran has said that this is an act of or this threat is maritime piracy uh the same charge has been [7:36] leveled at iran for trying to choke off the strait of hormuz basically it's a standoff iran doesn't have [7:43] a conventional navy in the in the normal sense donald trump likes to boast that they've destroyed [7:48] iran's navy which is largely true but iran only has to have some special operations capability namely [7:56] a couple of torpedo boats tucked away in an inlet somewhere a few drones they're very easy to [8:02] manufacture you know even some chinese made um tiny little commercial drones packed with c4 explosive [8:10] to be able to slam into the side of a tanker to make it too dangerous for ships to trip to to [8:16] transit that uh that straight so it's a real standoff this between iran and the us hidden in the shadows [8:24] is going to be i think the presence of china and to a lesser extent russia china is a big customer for [8:30] iran's uh oil it gets about 16 of its oil needs from iran and 90 of iran's oil goes to china so they've [8:38] both got a vested interest in this not happening and it's kind of a case of who blinks first timing [8:44] is also very important here because iran has so far played a weak military hand very cleverly they [8:53] they know that they've got geography on their side that by closing off or partially closing off the [9:00] strait of hormuz and the way they've done it's driven up oil prices that in turn is putting pressure on [9:05] the us government to do something about this donald trump rather than agreeing to iran's terms in [9:12] islamabad a couple of days ago he's doubling down and trying to put yet more pressure on iran hoping [9:18] that iran blinks first i wouldn't bet on that always great to get your analysis frank thank you so much [9:27] well there is also now concern of a deepening global energy crisis with the blockade on such a key [9:34] shipping route but how have the markets been reacting and what is the feeling out there when [9:40] it comes to the energy markets as well well our business editor simon jack has this assessment of [9:46] the economic impact well as you say it's an absolutely crucial artery uh to the entire world [9:52] economy and if you have it blocked the entire body of the world economy begins uh to show trauma [9:58] what i think is very interesting about today is actually given the ratcheting up of rhetoric and [10:04] a new blockade markets haven't moved that much yes oil is back above a hundred dollars but it's [10:09] well off the highs that we saw in the middle of last week before the ceasefire and the supposed [10:14] opening of the straits was declared and i think talking to market participants i'm hearing that there's [10:20] actually a bit of headline fatigue around this you know you get a social post and then you get another [10:26] one how is this uh blockade going to work are they really going to intercept iranian oil ships chinese [10:33] ships with iranian oil going to china what kind of diplomatic incident will that provoke is that [10:38] piracy by legal definition and i think it's crucial to remember china in all this because iranian oil [10:45] exports 90 of them go to china and china gets about 15 of its oil imports from iran and now china has lots [10:55] of other sources of oil including russian but it's not insignificant if you add venezuela into that as [11:00] well and i think this is in some ways a power play to bring china into this to get them to put pressure [11:05] on them to put pressure on iran to come to a deal and other traders i've spoken to said listen at the [11:11] moment this ceasefire you know is still holding so and people are talking about a deal and that's [11:17] enough to keep markets in fact stock markets in the us are actually up today but as you say other things [11:23] aluminium helium uh feedstock fertilizer all that goes through so all it will take is you know one [11:30] mistake here one stray missile one stray tweet one diplomatic incident one geopolitical military [11:37] incident could escalate so things you know the stakes are very high but i think the interesting [11:42] thing is that the markets are not freaking out at this latest development today well and amongst all [11:50] the other diplomacy that was going on over the weekend there has been a war of words between [11:54] president trump and the pope pope leo saying he has no intention of debating with donald trump [12:01] after the u.s president launched a scathing attack on the pontiff the president also posting and then [12:07] later deleting an astonishing image of him as jesus healing the sick which of course millions of [12:14] christians will find offensive mr trump addressed the post when talking to journalists at the white house [12:21] i did post it and i thought it was me as a doctor and had to do with red cross as a red cross worker [12:27] there which we support and uh only the fake news could come up with that one so i i had uh i just [12:35] heard about it and i said how did they come up with that it's supposed to be me as a doctor this is what [12:41] pope leo had to say he's been talking to journalists as well on a flight to algeria he's on a big tour a [12:47] attended tour of africa right now i do not look at my role as being a political politician i don't [12:55] want to get into a debate with him i don't think that the message of the gospel is meant to be abused [13:01] in the way that some people are doing and and i will continue to speak out loud against war looking [13:07] to promote peace promoting dialogue and multilateral relationships among the states to look for just [13:13] solution to the problems too many people are suffering in the world today too many innocent [13:18] people are being killed and i think someone has to stand up and say there's a better way to do this [13:26] the israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu says he supports president trump's blockade [13:31] also telling a cabinet meeting that israeli forces were now operating deeper inside southern lebanon [13:37] according to the latest figures from lebanon's public health ministry 2089 people have been killed in [13:42] the country since march the second this comes as officials from israel and lebanon are preparing [13:49] for direct talks in the u.s on tuesday let's take you live to jerusalem we can join our senior [13:54] international reporter there joel gunter joel just how significant will this moment be when the two [13:59] sides talk and what are the expectations well there is some significance of course because these are [14:08] two nations without any formal diplomatic ties it is extremely rare for them to be holding direct talks [14:15] but these are happening at a relatively low level between the country's respective ambassadors to [14:20] washington dc as for what we can expect to be quite frank at this point not very much at the moment [14:27] the two sides are still far apart on a key issue lebanese officials saying that they expect to be [14:32] discussing a ceasefire israeli officials have made it abundantly clear that they have no plans [14:38] to commit to a ceasefire with hezbollah the militant group they're fighting in lebanon and [14:42] officials from hezbollah also say that they have no plans to engage in talks without a ceasefire so [14:49] there is still a clear impasse there which could continue to overshadow the peace process between [14:54] the u.s and iran israel has scaled back its attacks in lebanon somewhat under pressure from the u.s [15:01] focusing on the south rather than striking beirut and we may see that scaling back continue or persist [15:08] but there is certainly no resolution there a lot of fatigue in israel and that front if you like for [15:15] israel could continue to overshadow that other peace process between the u.s and iran joel thank you [15:25] let's take you inside iran now get a sense of what the reaction has been in iran to the u.s blockade [15:32] and whether there are hopes there of more diplomacy joining me now is sevash adlan who is a senior [15:36] reporter for bbc persian sevash what is the rhetoric what are we hearing from the regime about this u.s [15:45] blockade well shortly after the blockade was announced by sedcom iran's revolutionary guards [15:53] issued a statement saying that if iranian ports won't have any security then no ports in the region [16:01] will have security and hint or indication that iran perhaps may intend to jeopardize or challenge [16:08] the security of other ports in the region but no concrete reaction yet we haven't had any reports [16:16] of interceptions by u.s navy of ships going to iranian ports or or leaving them when that happens we [16:24] have to see how iranians will react it all depends on how serious the u.s is i guess for iranians it's [16:31] a wait and see game to see whether the u.s will devote its resources to really block every single [16:39] ship that goes to the ports don't forget iran exports not just not just oil and gas but it exports [16:47] petrochemicals and other other goods to other countries as well constituting about 100 billion dollars [16:53] of annual revenue trade so it really will bite into the iranian economy but at the same time [17:01] if iran keeps this trade close it will hurt the global economy as well so it becomes a test of [17:07] endurance how long can the iranian economy withstand against the global economy if iran cannot export its [17:15] oil well the first problem other than losing a lot of its income would be its storage capacity it [17:22] loses its storage capacity after two weeks and then it can't produce any more oil and that will hurt its [17:28] industrial capacity to produce further oil in the future so it's a very challenging game iran has three [17:36] options either do nothing and keep the strait of hormos closed confront the u.s navy directly which could [17:43] escalate very quickly or um somehow hit back at other ports in the region which they've been talking [17:51] about savage thank you always invaluable to talk to our colleagues from bbc persian thank you so much [17:59] whether you are joining us on youtube tick tock sounds radio or tv thanks for your time today [18:05] we'll be back at the same time tomorrow with the iran war today