Trump Wants Hormuz Deal Immediately — Balance of Power: Early Edition 8/4/2026

[00:00:01] Speaker 1: LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D.C., THIS IS BALANCE OF POWER WITH JOE MATTHEW AND KAILEY LYNES. [00:00:12] Speaker 2: MARKETS RALLY ON THE PRESIDENT'S WORDS, BUT NOTHING HAS ACTUALLY CHANGED IN IRAN YET. WELCOME TO THE TUESDAY EDITION AS PRESIDENT TRUMP GIVES IRAN WHAT HE CALLS ONE MORE CHANCE BEFORE DECAPITATION. WELCOME TO THE STREET OF HORMUZ. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THESE CHANGES. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE SHOW MATTHEW ALONGSIDE KAILEY LYNES IN WASHINGTON. KAILEY, IT IS SOMETHING. [00:00:40] Speaker 3: THE PROBLEM IS HE HAS TURNED BACK ON THREATS JUST LIKE THIS TIME, NOW 13 TIMES ACCORDING TO A COUNT IN THE NEW YORK POST. HOW MANY MORE DO YOU GET? A DOZEN LAST CHANCES FOR IRAN, WHICH RAISES THE QUESTION WHY IRAN WOULD BELIEVE THIS CURRENT CHANCE IS THE LAST ONE. ALL THAT SAID, THERE ARE SIGNALS FROM MULTIPLE PARTIES IN AN INTERVIEW EARLIER, AND KATR IS ALSO SENDING SOME SIMILAR SIGNALS. THAT IS AS BLOOMBERG IS REPORTING THAT IRAN IS ACTUALLY CONSIDERING LETTING EUROPE PLAY A ROLE IN DEMINING THE STREET. [00:01:06] Speaker 2: HOW ABOUT THAT? WHICH IS SOMETHING THAT THE PRESIDENT HAS FLOATED BEFORE AS WELL. SO THE MARKETS ARE TAKING THE PRESIDENT AT HIS WORD. AS I MENTIONED, YOU HAVE CRUDE OIL WITH A SEVEN HANDLE. TODAY, STOCKS ARE SURGING. IN FACT, WE COULD BE TALKING ABOUT RECORD NUMBERS BY THE CLOSE. [00:01:21] Speaker 3: THE S&P CLOSED WITHIN AN INCH OF A FRESH RECORD YESTERDAY, AND IT COULD VERY WELL INK A NEW HIGH TODAY. ALL OF THAT, AS JOE POINTED OUT, AS WE ARE SEEING BRENT CRUDE BELOW $80 A BARREL, MOSTLY ON THE GEOPOLITICAL NARRATIVE. WE HAVE TO TALK ABOUT DOMESTIC POLITICS TODAY AS WELL, THOUGH, BECAUSE THERE ARE PRIMARIES HAPPENING IN A NUMBER OF STATES AND PERHAPS MOST CRUCIALLY IN MICHIGAN, WHERE THE DEMOCRATIC SENATE PRIMARY IS GOING TO BE A BIG INDICATOR OF WHAT DIRECTION THE PARTY IS HEADING IN, NOT JUST IN THIS YEAR, 2026, BUT BEYOND. [00:01:50] Speaker 2: BEING FRAMED AS A REFERENDUM FOR THE PARTY ITSELF. I DON'T KNOW IF THAT'S OVERDOING IT A LITTLE BIT WHEN YOU'VE GOT ONE RACE, BUT WE START CONNECTING THE DOTS AROUND THE DEMOCRATIC SENATE AS WELL, WHEN WE'VE SEEN PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS OR EVEN DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISTS WIN THESE RACES. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE REAL HOT ONE AND DEMOCRATS NEED TO WIN MICHIGAN IF THEY'RE GOING TO TAKE THE SENATE. [00:02:11] Speaker 3: WE'LL EXPLORE THIS A LITTLE BIT LATER ON THIS HOUR, TOO. WE'LL BE GETTING INTO THAT WITH OUR POLITICAL PANEL. FIRST, WE GET INTO THESE MARKETS AS WE ALWAYS DO. [00:02:18] Speaker 4: WE TURN TO CHARLIE PELLING IN NEW YORK. THANK YOU VERY MUCH. CHOPPING AT THE BIT HERE. I GOT A LOT OF NEWS, A LOT OF EXCITEMENT. THANK YOU VERY MUCH. WE'LL START WITH THE DEMOCRATIC COMMITTEE. YES, A RECORD. YES, ABOVE 54,000. 54,187 RIGHT NOW ON THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE. BIG DAY FOR THE DOW. THE S&P 7731. THAT'S A GAIN OF 130 POINTS RIGHT NOW UP BY 1.7%. RECORD ON THE S&P. NASDAQ STILL HAS A WAY TO GO. THE DEMOCRATIC COMMITTEE. WE'LL PUT UP BY 3%. THE BLOOMBERG MAG 7 INDEX UP 0.6%. THE SOCKS, BIG STORY THERE, UP 6.6%. AMD AFTER THE CLOSE OF TRADING TODAY, ALONG WITH SPACEX. SHARES OF ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES, THEY ARE UP BY 8.2%. RALLY IN SEMIS. SPACEX, BY THE WAY, AHEAD OF EARNINGS UP BY 6.2%. 121, WHERE WE STAND ON SPACEX. WE'VE GOT THE 2-YEAR YIELDING, 4.19%. THE 10-YEAR, 4.62%. THE 30-YEAR, 5.18%. GOLD AT 4,097. THE OUNCE UP BY 1.1%. WEST TEXAS, INTERMEDIATE CRUDE, JUST ABOVE 67 A BARREL. RIGHT NOW, WE'VE GOT WTI DOWN 5.3%. BARREL OF BRENT, 79.55. DROP THERE OF 5%. SO, OIL SLIPPING AS OPTIMISM GROWS THAT THE U.S. AND IRAN ARE MOVING CLOSER TO A DEAL TO RE-OPEN THE VITAL STRAIGHT OF HORMOUZ CHECKPOINT. RIGHT NOW, WE'VE GOT OIL MAJORS, THE SUPER MAJORS. THEY ARE TRADING LOWER THIS AFTER PRESIDENT TRUMP BLASTED EXXON MOBILE AND CHEVRON FOR HIGH GASOLINE PRICES. EXXON MOBILE DOWN 4/10 OF 1%. CHEVRON DOWN 1%. CONICO PHILLIPS ALSO LOWER ALONG WITH THE PRICE OF CRUDE, CONICO PHILLIPS DOWN BY 7/10 OF 1%. BUT AGAIN, DAW INDUSTRIAL IS NOW UP 993 POINTS. A RECORD THERE UP 1.9%. S&P UP BY 1.7%. I'M CHARLIE PELLET, JOE AND KAYLEIGH, LOTS GOING ON. THAT IS A BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH. [00:04:30] Speaker 3: LOTS GOING ON INDEED AND A GREAT SNAPSHOT OF IT FROM CHARLIE PELLET. TECH STOCKS RIPPING AS CHARLIE MENTIONED AND INTERESTING TO SEE ENERGY STOCKS ONCE AGAIN UNDER PRESSURE TODAY AS WE SEE OIL PRICES GOING LOWER. PERHAPS THAT'S GOING TO MEAN FEWER PROFITS FOR THESE ENERGY COMPANIES. THIS IS SOMETHING WE KNOW PRESIDENT TRUMP CARES A LOT ABOUT AS HE ACCUSED THESE COMPANIES ESSENTIALLY OF PROFITEERING ONCE AGAIN IN THE OVAL OFFICE YESTERDAY. AND WE'LL BE TALKING ABOUT THAT IN A MOMENT WITH THE PRESIDENT OF THE AMERICAN PETROLEUM INSTITUTE, MIKE SUMMERS. BUT FIRST WE HAVE TO TALK ABOUT WHAT ELSE THE PRESIDENT SAID IN THE OVAL OFFICE AS HE EXPLAINS HIS ONCE AGAIN CALLING OFF OF MORE INTENSE STRIKES ON IRAN, DESCRIBING THE CURRENT CHANCE AS BEING THE LAST ONE FOR TEHRAN. [00:05:11] Speaker 5: THIS IS THE LAST CHANCE. THIS IS THE LAST CHANCE FOR THEM TO SIGN A GOOD DOCUMENT. I DON'T KNOW. I THINK WE'RE GOING TO MAYBE GET SOMETHING, BUT I WANT TO GIVE THEM EVERY LAST CHANCE BEFORE DECAPITATION. VERY TOUGH TO DO WHAT WE HAVE PLANNED, STILL PLANNED. WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS. [00:05:32] Speaker 2: WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS AGAIN. NOT THE FIRST TIME WE'VE HEARD ABOUT A LAST CHANCE. AS THE NEW YORK POST ACTUALLY WENT THROUGH TRANSCRIPTS AND TRUTH SOCIAL POST TO LEARN THERE IS IN FACT A NUMBER ON THIS. HE'S DONE IT NOW 13 TIMES. GIVING IRAN ONE LAST CHANCE. IN THIS CASE, HE SAYS BEFORE DECAPITATION, WE'VE SEEN THIS WALK UP ONLY TO STEP BACK MOMENT. AND THERE'S A BIG QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER THIS WILL IN FACT BE THE LAST ONE. AS KAYLEY MENTIONED, THERE ARE SOME GOOD SIGNS AS CUTTER SIGNALS PROGRESS ON A DEAL. AND IT'S SOMETHING THAT WE WANT TO DISCUSS WITH JORDAN FABIAN, WHO IS OUR WHITE HOUSE IN POLITICS TEAM LEADER HERE IN WASHINGTON, D.C., HAVING COVERED THE ADMINISTRATION FOR MANY YEARS. JORDAN, IT'S GREAT TO SEE YOU. ARE WE ANY CLOSER TO A DEAL? AND HOW MANY TIMES DOES THE PRESIDENT GET TO DO THIS? WELL, IT APPEARS AS MANY TIMES [00:06:27] Speaker 6: AS HE'D LIKE. AND ANOTHER GOOD QUESTION IS WHAT IS A DEAL? IF IT'S SIMPLY TO RESTORE TRAFFIC IN THE STRAIGHT OF HORMUS, MAYBE WE'RE BACK TO WHERE WE WERE PRE-WAR, BUT THAT LEAVES ALL THE OTHER WAR OBJECTIVES THAT THE PRESIDENT HAD BY THE WAYSIDE AS FAR AS PREVENTING IRAN FROM ACQUIRING A NUCLEAR WEAPON. YES, THEY'VE DEGRADED THEIR MILITARY CAPABILITIES, BUT THEY'VE SHOWN THEY STILL HAVE THE STRENGTH TO HIT TARGETS THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND THREATEN THEIR NEIGHBORS. AND SO YOU MIGHT ASK AT THE END OF THIS IF IT'S JUST A DEAL TO GET TRAFFIC GOING IN HORMUS, WHAT WAS ALL THIS FOR? NOT TO MENTION THE FACT THAT IRAN HAS LEARNED THAT IT HAS A VERY POWERFUL LEVER IN CONTROL OF THE STRAIGHT. AND I HAVE SOME REAL QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER THEY'RE ACTUALLY GOING TO RESTORE TRUE FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION GIVEN ALL WE JUST WENT THROUGH. YEAH, WELL, OF COURSE THE ORIGINAL MEMORANDUM OF [00:07:18] Speaker 3: UNDERSTANDING WAS JUST ABOUT IMMEDIATELY REOPENING THE STRAIGHT OF FORMUS AND PUNTING TALKS ON MORE DIFFICULT ISSUES LIKE IRAN'S NUCLEAR AMBITIONS TO A LATER DATE. WOULD WE EXPECT, JORDAN, IF THERE IS TO BE A DEAL, THAT IT WOULD BE IN MOU FORM ONCE AGAIN? OR HAVE THEY EFFECTIVELY DECIDED THAT THAT DIDN'T WORK THE FIRST GO AROUND? I DON'T [00:07:37] Speaker 6: KNOW IF WE HAVE THAT LEVEL OF DETAIL. AND IT'S NOT EVEN CLEAR WHICH PARTIES ARE TALKING RIGHT NOW. WE KNOW THAT IRAN AND OMON ARE TALKING. WE DON'T KNOW TO THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE U.S. IS INVOLVED BEYOND JARED KUSHNER AND STEVE WIKOFF JUST TEXTING ON THE PHONE WITH INTERMEDIARIES. SO, AGAIN, A DEAL MIGHT JUST BE THE PRELUDE TO MORE TALKS. BUT AGAIN, THE MOU APPROACH, AS YOU POINTED OUT, KAYLEIGH, WAS NOT EFFECTIVE. IT LEFT THE STRAIGHT TOO AMBIGUOUS, WHICH LET IRAN COME BACK AND HIT SHIPPING. IT DIDN'T ADDRESS THE KEY QUESTIONS FOR TRUMP. AND SO, YOU KNOW, WHAT -- TRUMP SAYS THEY'RE DUPLICITIST NEGOTIATORS. LIKE, HOW CAN YOU MAKE A DEAL WITH PEOPLE WHO ARE DUPLICITIST NEGOTIATORS? [00:08:18] Speaker 2: WE'RE SEEING OIL PRICES PULL BACK TODAY ON HOPES FOR SOMETHING TO HAPPEN HERE. AND IT'S NOT THE FIRST TIME WE'VE SEEN THAT. ALTHOUGH, IT'S BEEN A WHILE SINCE WE'VE BEEN IN THE '70S FOR CRUDE OIL. GAS PRICES ARE STILL HOVERING ABOVE $4 A GALLON, THOUGH. AND THAT KIND OF REMAINS ITS OWN STORY AND ITS OWN MARKET. YOU WERE COVERING THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION. I REMEMBER DISTINCTLY TALKING TO YOU WHEN PRICES TOP $5 A GALLON. HOW DIFFERENT IS THE RHETORIC THAT WE'RE HEARING FROM THIS ADMINISTRATION TO THE WAY BIDEN MESSAGED AROUND WHAT'S A REAL PROBLEM FOR VOTERS WITH A FEW MONTHS TO THE ELECTION? [00:08:52] Speaker 6: IT'S ACTUALLY STRIKINGLY SIMILAR, JOE. FOR AS MANY RIPS AS TRUMP LIKES TO TAKE AT BIDEN, WHAT THEY'RE SAYING AS FAR AS THE GASOLINE PRICES IS QUITE SIMILAR. A LOT OF JAWBOTING AGAINST THE SUPER MAJORS IN THE OIL INDUSTRY, LAUNCHING OF INVESTIGATIONS OR PROBES INTO SUPPOSED PRICE GOUGING IN THE RETAIL GASOLINE MARKET. I REMEMBER BIDEN SAID SOMETHING ALONG THE LINES IN 2022 OF THE BIG OIL COMPANIES ARE MAKING MORE MONEY THAN GOD. AND YOU HAD TRUMP SAY SOMETHING PRETTY SIMILAR YESTERDAY IN THE OVAL OFFICE SAYING THAT THEY'RE MAKING WAY TOO MUCH PROFIT AND THEY NEED TO GIVE MONEY BACK TO SHAREHOLDERS. THE IRONY FOR TRUMP IS THAT WITH BIDEN, THAT WAS RUSSIA'S INVASION OF UKRAINE. THAT WAS TRUMP'S OWN ACTIONS THAT TRIGGERED THE MOST RECENT PRICE SPIKE. AND SO THERE'S THE DIFFERENCE FOR YOU. [00:09:44] Speaker 3: ALL RIGHT. JORDAN FABIAN, LEADING OUR WHITE HOUSE AND POLITICS TEAM HERE AT BLOOMBERG. THANK YOU SO MUCH. IT'S LIKE JORDAN KNEW EXACTLY WHERE WE WERE PLANNING TO GO NEXT. AS HE TALKS ABOUT WHAT WE HEARD FROM THE PRESIDENT IN THE OVAL OFFICE YESTERDAY CALLING OUT SPECIFIC OIL MAJORS FOR THEIR PROFITS. LISTEN. [00:10:00] Speaker 5: THEY'RE MAKING TOO MUCH MONEY BASED ON A SHORTAGE. THEY'RE MAKING TOO MUCH MONEY. I DON'T LIKE IT. CHEVRON, TOO MUCH MONEY. EXXON MOBILE, TOO MUCH MONEY. TOO MUCH MONEY. WHEN YOU LOOK AT ONE COMPANY WHERE THEY MADE 12 TIMES WHAT THEY MADE THE YEAR BEFORE, THEY'RE GOING TO GIVE SOME OF THAT BACK TO THE PUBLIC. AND THEY'D BETTER CUT THE RETAIL PRICE, THE CONSUMER PRICE. [00:10:26] Speaker 3: SO TO JORDAN'S POINT, IT SOUNDS LIKE SOMETHING WE'VE HEARD FROM [00:10:27] Speaker 2: PRIOR ADMINISTRATIONS AS WELL. WELL, YEAH, THAT'S TRUE. AND IT'S KIND OF AMAZING SINCE WE HEAR SO MUCH ABOUT THE PRESIDENT'S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE OIL INDUSTRY, WHILE WE MAY NOT BE SEEING A LOT OF ADDITIONAL DRILLING. THERE'S A -- IT'S KIND OF A VIBES THING THAT THERE'S JUST MORE POSITIVE ENERGY IN THE ENERGY SPACE WHEN IT COMES TO THIS ADMINISTRATION. BUT STOPPING DOWN TO CALL THEM OUT, WHAT ARE WE LOOKING AT FOR A GALLON OF GAS TODAY, KAYLEIGH, $4 ACCORDING TO TRIPLE A, AND 8 CENTS NATIONALLY. AND WE WANTED TO TALK THIS OUT WITH MIKE SUMMERS. I'M GUESSING HE WAS LISTENING TO THIS AS WELL. MIKE, OF COURSE, RUNS THE AMERICAN PETROLEUM INSTITUTE, WHERE HE'S PRESIDENT AND CEO SPEAKING FOR THE INDUSTRY. IT'S GREAT TO SEE YOU, MIKE. GREAT TO BE WITH YOU. AND WELCOME BACK TO BLOOMBERG. IS THIS AN ARGUMENT WITHIN THE FAMILY? HOW WOULD YOU DESCRIBE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THIS ADMINISTRATION AND YOUR INDUSTRY, AND WHAT'S YOU LOOKING FOR HERE? [00:11:14] Speaker 7: WELL, FIRST OF ALL, I GIVE THE PRESIDENT A LOT OF CREDIT FOR HIS ENERGY DOMINANCE AGENDA HAS REALLY MADE THE DIFFERENCE. WE'VE OPENED UP THE GULF OF AMERICA AGAIN FOR PRODUCTION. WE HAVE MORE PRODUCTION ON FEDERAL LANDS AND, OF COURSE, IN FEDERAL WATERS. THEIR REGULATORY AGENDA HAS BEEN VERY POSITIVE FOR THE AMERICAN OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY. THERE'S NO QUESTION. THIS PRESIDENT HAS BEEN FOCUSED ON MORE PRODUCTION HERE IN THE UNITED STATES. AND THAT HAS PROVIDED A BUFFER DURING THIS TIME WHEN THE STRAIGHT OF HARMUZ HAS BEEN EFFECTIVELY CLOSED. SO I GIVE HIM A LOT OF CREDIT FOR HIS ENERGY DOMINANCE AGENDA. AT THE SAME TIME, WE KNOW THAT THIS INDUSTRY IS A PRICE TAKER, NOT A PRICE MAKER. AND BECAUSE THE STRAIGHT OF HARMUZ HAS BEEN SHUT DOWN FOR BASICALLY FIVE MONTHS, WE'RE, OF COURSE, GOING TO BE DEALING WITH HIGHER PRICES AT THE PUMP. [00:11:58] Speaker 3: SO, IN OTHER WORDS, IS HIGHER PROFIT NOT A CHOICE? OR COULD THEY MAKE A DIFFERENT CHOICE? WELL, OF COURSE. [00:12:04] Speaker 7: THIS IS AN INDUSTRY, AS I SAID, WE ARE PRICE TAKERS, NOT PRICE MAKERS. AND AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE STRAIGHT OF HARMUZ, WHICH HAS BEEN 20 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL A DAY, NOT MAKING IT THROUGH THE STRAIGHT, YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE TO DEAL WITH HIGHER PRICES. I'LL REMIND YOU, THOUGH, IN 2020, I WAS ACTUALLY IN A MEETING WITH THE PRESIDENT IN THE CABINET ROOM WHERE THIS INDUSTRY WAS ACTUALLY DEALING WITH LOW PRICES, IN FACT, NEGATIVE $32 PRICES. AND THAT WAS A TIME WHEN THIS INDUSTRY WAS MAKING VIRTUALLY ZERO EARNINGS. SO, THIS IS A COMMONLY BUSINESS. PRICES GO UP, PRICES GO DOWN. WE HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE PRICE SWINGS. AND, ON AVERAGE, THIS INDUSTRY ACTUALLY MAKES FEWER EARNINGS THAN OTHER LARGE INDUSTRIES, LIKE TECH, LIKE FINANCE. SO, THIS IS AN INDUSTRY THAT WE DO HAVE TO DEAL WITH THOSE HIGHS AND LOWS. AND HIGH PRICES NOW MEAN INVESTMENTS FOR FUTURE PRODUCTION. ONE EXAMPLE OF THAT IS DURING THE 2008-2012 PERIOD WHEN WE WERE DEALING WITH SIGNIFICANT EARNINGS AT THAT POINT, TOO. THAT ALLOWED US TO FINANCE WHAT EVENTUALLY BECAME THE SHALE REVOLUTION, THE FRACKING REVOLUTION, WHICH ALLOWED US TODAY NOW PRODUCE ABOUT 14 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL EVERY SINGLE DAY. [00:13:09] Speaker 2: SURELY THE PRESIDENT UNDERSTANDS EVERYTHING WE'RE TALKING ABOUT HERE, RIGHT? I MEAN, HE KNOWS THAT THERE'S A REFINING BOTTLINECK IN THIS COUNTRY, THAT THERE'S A DISCONNECT. WE TALK ABOUT CRACK SPREADS BETWEEN THE PRICE OF CRUDE AND WHAT WE PAY AT THE PUMP, THAT DISTILLED PRODUCTS ARE THEIR OWN STORY. IS HE JUST SOUNDING THE POPULIST ALARM IN AN ELECTION SEASON, I FEEL YOUR PAIN? [00:13:30] Speaker 7: WELL, I DO THINK THAT EVERYONE IS CONCERNED ABOUT HIGH PRICES AT THE PUMP FOR AMERICAN CONSUMERS AND HIGH ELECTRICITY PRICES. CALLING YOU GUYS OUT BY NAME THOUGH, EXXON MOBILE AND CHEVRO. ABSOLUTELY. BUT WE UNDERSTAND THAT WE'RE IN AN ELECTION YEAR AND WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO DEAL WITH THAT KIND OF INCOMING. BUT AT THE SAME TIME, AMERICAN CONSUMERS HAVE TO UNDERSTAND THAT DURING THIS TIME OF HIGH EARNINGS, THIS IS THE TIME WHEN WE INVEST FOR FUTURE PRODUCTION GOING FORWARD. [00:13:53] Speaker 3: WELL, AS JOE IS TALKING ABOUT THE POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS HERE, THAT ARGUABLY IS WHY WE'VE SEEN THE PRESIDENT FLOAT THINGS LIKE A GAS TAX HOLIDAY, FOR EXAMPLE. DO YOU FEAR THAT HE COULD EVEN GO SO FAR IF WE SEE PRICES PERMANENTLY ABOVE $4 A GALLON, FOR EXAMPLE, TO SUGGEST THAT MAYBE THERE SHOULD BE EXPORT BANS PUT IN PLACE IN THIS COUNTRY? WHAT WOULD THAT DO? [00:14:13] Speaker 7: WELL, WE WOULD ALSO BE VERY CONCERNED ABOUT ANY KIND OF AN EXPORT BAN. I WILL SAY THAT THERE ARE A LOT OF POLICIES THAT THEY PUT IN PLACE THAT HAVE PROVIDED SOME KIND OF A BUFFER. FOR EXAMPLE, THE JONES ACT WAIVER THAT THEY PUT INTO PLACE. THERE ARE OTHER THINGS THEY COULD DO. THERE ARE CHANGES THAT THEY COULD MAKE TO THE RENEWABLE FUELS STANDARD RIGHT NOW THAT ARE PROVIDING A HIGHER PRICE AT THE PUMP THAT WE DON'T NEED TO SUSTAIN RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE KIND OF CHALLENGES THAT WE HAVE. BUT WE WOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT AN EXPORT BAN PRIMARILY BECAUSE THERE IS A MISMATCH BETWEEN THE KIND OF PRODUCTION THAT WE HAVE IN THE UNITED STATES. THIS WTI THAT WE PRODUCE HERE IN THE UNITED STATES ISN'T NECESSARILY REFINED HERE IN THE UNITED STATES. SO WE IMPORT A LOT OF PRODUCT FROM OVERSEAS AND THEN WE EXPORT A LOT OF PRODUCT FROM THE UNITED STATES TO BE REFINED ELSEWHERE. THAT'S ACTUALLY TO THE BENEFIT OF AMERICAN CONSUMERS. BECAUSE WE BUY THAT LOWER QUALITY CRUDE FROM OTHER COUNTRIES LIKE CANADA AND THEN SELL IT TO AMERICAN CONSUMERS AT A DISCOUNT. SO ANY KIND OF AN EXPORT BAN I THINK WOULD BE A GREAT CONCERN TO THIS INDUSTRY. [00:15:12] Speaker 2: WE'VE TALKED ABOUT THE REFINING BOTTLENECKS IN THIS COUNTRY AND THE NEED TO MAINTAIN THESE REFINERIES. AT SOME POINT YOU NEED TO TAKE THEM DOWN AND FIX THE HARDWARE. IN A COUNTRY THAT HASN'T BUILT A REFINERY I BELIEVE SINCE THE 1970S. IS THIS THE PART THAT NEEDS TO BE FIXED? [00:15:29] Speaker 7: WELL IT'S ONE OF THE REASONS WHY WE'RE SO FOCUSED ON GETTING LEGISLATIVE PERMITTING REFORM DONE. BECAUSE IT IS VERY HARD TO BUILD ANYTHING IN THIS COUNTRY PARTICULARLY A NEW OIL REFINERY. YOU'RE EXACTLY RIGHT. WE HAVEN'T BUILT A REFINERY IN THIS COUNTRY SINCE 1976. AND IF YOU THINK ABOUT THE MARKET THAT WE WERE IN IN 1976 COMPARED TO THE ONE THAT WE'RE IN TODAY, IT'S A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT STORY. WE WERE IMPORTING OIL AT THAT POINT. NOW WE'RE EXPORTING OIL. IT DOESN'T MAKE ANY SENSE. WE SHOULD BE BUILDING MORE REFINERIES IN THIS COUNTRY BECAUSE THAT'S THE REAL BOTTLENECK RIGHT NOW. EVEN WHEN YOU'RE DEALING WITH LOWER PRICES FROM A CRUDE PERSPECTIVE, YOU DON'T HAVE THE REFINING CAPACITY THAT YOU NEED TO TURN IT INTO THE PRODUCTS THAT WE USE ON A DAILY BASIS LIKE GASOLINE AND DIESEL. [00:16:10] Speaker 3: WHAT ARE YOU HEARING ABOUT PERMITTING REFORM ON CAPITOL HILL RIGHT NOW? OR I GUESS MAYBE A BETTER QUESTION IS ARE YOU HEARING ABOUT IT? BECAUSE WE OFTEN DON'T. [00:16:18] Speaker 7: THIS SHOULD BE SUCH A LAYUP FOR THE UNITED STATES CONGRESS RIGHT NOW. I BELIEVE IT SHOULD BE A POLITICAL IMPERATIVE FOR THEM. YOU SEE PRICES GOING UP PARTICULARLY ON THE ELECTRICITY SIDE BECAUSE OF MORE DEMAND ON THE ELECTRICAL GRID BECAUSE OF DATA CENTERS AND THE ADVENT OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. UNFORTUNATELY, LAWMAKERS JUST AREN'T FOCUSED ON IT BECAUSE WE'RE IN AN ELECTION YEAR. BUT I THINK THAT THIS SHOULD HAVE BEEN THE FIRST THING ON THE AGENDA THIS CONGRESS. REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS SHOULD BE ABLE TO AGREE BECAUSE ALL SIDES BENEFIT. WHETHER IT'S ALTERNATIVE ENERGIES LIKE WIND AND SOLAR OR PIPELINES THAT WOULD BENEFIT OIL AND NATURAL GAS. BUT UNFORTUNATELY, I THINK THEY'RE A LITTLE BIT TOO FOCUSED ON WHAT'S COMING IN NOVEMBER. AND EVERYBODY WANTS TO WAIT UNTIL THEY FIGURE OUT WHO'S GOING TO WIN TO DECIDE WHO'S GOING TO BENEFIT FROM PERMITTING REFORM. [00:17:02] Speaker 2: THERE'S GREAT HOPE IN THE MARKETS TODAY. WE SEE CRUDE OIL IN THE 70s FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SOME TIME IS ENCOURAGING. HOW LONG WOULD WE NEED TO STAY AT THESE LEVELS OR MOVE LOWER TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN GAS PRICES? [00:17:14] Speaker 7: HERE'S THE BOTTOM LINE. UNFORTUNATELY, WE'RE STILL NOT GETTING ENOUGH PRODUCT THROUGH THE STRAIGHT OF HORMUS. EVEN AT THE HIGHEST ENDS, THEY'RE SAYING THAT WE'RE GETTING ONLY ABOUT 7 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL THROUGH THE STRAIGHT OF HORMUS AT THIS POINT. BECAUSE OF NEW PIPELINE CAPACITY, YOU ONLY NEED TO GET THAT LEVEL UP TO ABOUT 11 MILLION BARRELS A DAY THROUGH THE STRAIGHT BECAUSE OF A LOT OF THAT PRODUCT NOW FLOWING THROUGH PIPELINES. THAT IS A GREAT NEWS STORY FOR THE MIDDLE EAST AND I THINK OVER TIME WE NEED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD THAT INFRASTRUCTURE SO THAT WE CAN AVOID THE STRAIGHT OVER TIME. BUT RIGHT NOW WE NEED TO GET THAT UP TO ABOUT 11 MILLION BARRELS A DAY ON A SUSTAINED BASIS IF WE'RE GOING TO GET BACK TO WHERE WE NEED TO BE, BACK TO WHERE WE WERE PRIOR TO THIS CONFLICT BEGINNING. [00:17:54] Speaker 3: WELL, SO SHOULD THIS ADMINISTRATION ALSO TAP THE REST OF THE SPR DRAWDOWN THAT THEY SAID THEY WOULD COMPLETE? I BELIEVE THERE'S 39 MILLION BARRELS LEFT IN THAT PROGRAM. [00:18:03] Speaker 7: SO THERE ARE ABOUT 39 MILLION BARRELS LEFT IN THAT PROGRAM. WE STILL HAVE PRODUCT IN THE STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE. THAT WAS SOMETHING THAT THEY NEGOTIATED AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS THAT EXPIRES AT THE END OF AUGUST. THEY NEED TO THINK ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE AND START CONSIDERING WHETHER THEY'RE GOING TO DO ANOTHER RELEASE OR ANOTHER EXCHANGE, WHICH IS HOW THIS PROGRAM IS DEVELOPED. I DON'T KNOW THE ANSWER TO THAT YET. I DON'T THINK WE'RE GOING TO KNOW UNTIL WE KNOW THE RESULTS OF WHETHER THIS POTENTIAL DEAL IN THE MIDDLE EAST COMES THROUGH. WE'VE SEEN THIS BEFORE, OF COURSE. I DO THINK THAT THAT HAS PROVIDED AN IMPORTANT RELIEF VALVE FOR AMERICAN CONSUMERS. THOSE TARGETED SPR RELEASES NOT JUST IN THE UNITED STATES BUT THROUGHOUT THE WORLD. SO THERE ARE A LOT OF THESE POLICIES. AGAIN, WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO EXTEND THE JONES ACT WAIVERS AS WELL. THAT HAS PROVIDED AN IMPORTANT RELIEF VALVE FOR AMERICAN CONSUMERS ALSO. [00:18:47] Speaker 3: ALL RIGHT. MIKE SUMMERS, THE CEO AND PRESIDENT OF THE AMERICAN PETROLEUM INSTITUTE, HERE WITH US IN OUR WASHINGTON, D.C. STUDIO. WE STILL HAVE MORE AHEAD HERE ON BALANCE OF POWER. WE'LL ASSEMBLE OUR POLITICAL PANEL NEXT ON BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO. [00:19:02] Speaker 4: WE'LL TELL YOU WHAT WE'RE GOING TO DO TODAY. IT'S 1:21 ON WALL STREET. WE DO CHECK MARKETS ALL DAY LONG. WE'VE GOT STOCKS CONTINUING TO PUSH HIGHER WITH BOTH THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE AND THE S&P 500 INDEX TRADING AT A RECORD RIGHT NOW. LOOKING AT A 1,000 POINT JUMP ON THE DOW. RIGHT NOW, WE'RE AT 54,175. THAT IS A GAIN OF 1.9%. RIGHT NOW, WE'VE GOT THE NASDAQ 100 INDEX UP NOW BY 3.1%. THE NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX UP BY 2.4%. THE SOX, THE PHILADELPHIA STOCK EXCHANGE SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX, NO STRANGERS TO BIG SWINGS, BOTH TO THE UPSIDE AND THE DOWNSIDE. RIGHT NOW, THE SOX IS UP BY 6.5%. AMONG THE NAMES MOVING HIGHER THERE, ADVANCED MICRODEVICES UP 8.3%. AMD REPORTS AFTER THE CLOSE OF TRADING. THE VIX, RIGHT AROUND 16, WITH A TWO-YEAR CURRENTLY YIELDING 4.19%. THE 10-YEAR, 4.62%. AND THE 30-YEAR, 5.19%. GOLD AT 4,099 THE OUNCE. SPOT GOLD UP 1.1%. CRUDE, MAJOR STORY, IT IS SELLING OFF. THAT'S GIVING A LIFT TO STOCKS. RIGHT NOW, WTI, 75.90 A BARREL, DOWN 5.5%. BARREL OF BRENT, 79.36, DOWN 5.2%. KEY BECAUSE BRENT CRUDE BACK BELOW $80 A BARREL. EARNINGS NEWS, MERC HAS BOOSTED ITS 2026 SALES OUTLOOK AFTER STRONG DEMAND FOR NEWER DRUGS. SHARES OF MERC, THEY ARE ADVANCING BY 7/10 OF 1%. ALSO OUT WITH EARNINGS, ANOTHER DRUG MAKER, PFIZER, UP NOW BY 1.6%. CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL SHARES, THEY ARE PLUNGING NOW BY 7.2%. CHIPOTLE REMOVED JALAPENOS FROM MULTIPLE STORES IN MINNESOTA AFTER LEARNING THE PEPPERS MAY BE LINKED TO A SALMONELLA OUTBREAK IN THE STATE. CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL DOWN NOW BY 7.1%. AFTER THE CLOSE OF TRADING, WE'LL BE HEARING FROM BOTH AMD AND SPACEX. SPACEX AHEAD OF EARNINGS, UP NOW BY 7.1%. RECAPPING, A 988-POINT JUMP RIGHT NOW FOR THE DOW, UP 1.9%. S&P, ALSO TO RECORD UP BY 1.8%. JOE AND KAYLEY, THAT IS A BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH. [00:21:30] Speaker 2: ALL RIGHT, CHARLIE, I GUESS IF IT'S NOT THE LETTUCE, IT'S THE JALAPENOS. CHARLIE, WE'LL BE BACK WITH MORE ON THE MARKET. IT'S ABOUT 20 MINUTES TIME. POWERFUL RALLY UNDERWAY TODAY. WE'LL BE FOLLOWING IT STRAIGHT THROUGH THE CLOSE WITH MUCH MORE TO DISCUSS. AS CHARLIE MENTIONED, SPACEX AMD ON THE LATE EDITION OF BALANCE OF POWER. WE'LL UNPACK IT ALL WITH BLOOMBERG'S ED LUDLOW. THAT STARTS BOP, THE LATE EDITION, AT 5:00 P.M. EASTERN TIME. HAPPY PRIMARY DAY. THIS IS SOMETHING WE HAVEN'T HAD A CHANCE TO GET TO WITH SO MUCH NEWS COMING OUT OF THE WHITE HOUSE AND THE CONGRESS. IT IS AT LAST TIME TO DECIDE IN STATES INCLUDING MICHIGAN, WHICH IS ONE OF THE MOST CLOSELY WATCHED AND MOST EXPENSIVE SENATE PRIMARIES IN THE COUNTRY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS THE PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. [00:22:38] Speaker 8: THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. [00:22:54] Speaker 9: THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. [00:23:18] Speaker ?: THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. [00:23:19] Speaker 3: THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. [00:24:02] Speaker 1: THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A PART OF THE MOST CLOSELY. THAT IS A GREAT WAY TO FRAME IT. IN THE SHORT-TERM, IF AL-SAYED DOES WHAT THE POLLING SUGGESTS AND WINS THIS THING, HE HAS AN UPHILL BATTLE IN THE GENERAL ELECTION. AND ENORMOUS GENERATIONAL DIVIDE AND SUPPORT FOR THESE TWO CANDIDATES. NOW, THEY ARE BOTH IN THEIR EARLY 40s. YOU KNOW, THEY ARE AROUND THE SAME AGE. SO IT IS NOT ABOUT THE CANDIDATES. BUT PEOPLE UNDER THE AGE OF 50, BY AND LARGE, SUPPORT AL-SAYED BY DOUBLE-DIGIT NUMBERS. AND PEOPLE OVER 60, MORE NARROWLY BUT STILL DOUBLE-DIGIT, SUPPORT STEVENS. AND I THINK WHAT THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY HAS TO RECKON WITH GOING FORWARD. THE BRAND IS IN A TANK. THEY HAVE AN INSURGENCY COMING FROM THEIR LEFT THAT THEY'VE BEEN UNABLE TO CONTROL. THIS HAS BEEN GOING ON SINCE WELL BEFORE 2016. AND THEY'VE GOT TO GRAPPLE WITH THAT. AND IF THEY'RE JUST GOING TO OFFER THE SAME OLD, AND FOR MANY PEOPLE, STEVENS IS OFFERING A WIN IN THE GENERAL BUT NOT MUCH ELSE, THEN THEIR CANDIDATES ARE GOING TO LOSE. SO THEY'VE GOT TO TAKE SERIOUSLY WHAT THEY'RE OFFERING AND THAT THIS HAS MORE TO DO WITH JUST WINNING AND GETTING THE BETTER OF DONALD TRUMP. IT'S GOT TO DO WITH A LOT MORE ABOUT THE PARTY THAT GOES BACK MANY, MANY YEARS. [00:25:35] Speaker 2: RICK, DO YOU BUY THE NARRATIVE IN THE MEDIA, AS SOMEBODY WHO'S BEEN AROUND POLITICAL CAMPAIGNS FOR A LONG TIME, THAT THIS IS A FIGHT FOR THE SOUL OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY? AND IF YOU'RE MIKE ROGERS, ARE YOU ACTUALLY HOPING THAT ELSEYED WINS? [00:25:52] Speaker 10: YEAH, I THINK THIS IS ACTUALLY MORE IMPORTANT STORY THAN ALL THE PREVIOUS SORT OF LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS FIGHTING OVER, YOU KNOW, WHETHER OR NOT A SOCIALIST IS GOING TO BEAT A MAINSTREAM DEMOCRAT. THOSE THINGS REALLY DON'T MATTER TO THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. MICHIGAN'S A BIG DEAL. MICHIGAN'S A SWING STATE. YOU'VE GOT TO WIN MICHIGAN. THEY'VE BEEN LOSING MICHIGAN LATELY, THE DEMOCRATS. AND SO THEY'VE GOT TO TAKE THIS INCREDIBLY SERIOUSLY. I DON'T KNOW ABOUT THE SOUL. I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE SOUL OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS. BUT, YOU KNOW, ABIL EL SAYED IS LIKE BLUE MAGA. I MEAN, LIKE, HE'S THE REAL DEAL. YOU CAN ACTUALLY FIND A LOT OF PARALLELS WITH HIM AND THE MAGA CONTINGENT IN MICHIGAN. IT'S WHY DONALD TRUMP HAS DONE SO WELL. SOME OF THESE SAME ISSUES APPLY TO THE MAGA BASE THAT HAVE APPLIED TO EL SAYED'S BASE. AND SO, YEAH, DEMOCRATS HAVE TO SORT OF GET RIGHT WITH THIS. AND, AS GENIE SAYS, IF POLLS ARE CORRECT, HE SWINGS INTO ELECTION AS A DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE. AND, LOOK, I LOVE MIKE ROGERS. I WANT MIKE ROGERS TO BE A SENATOR, AND I THINK HE'D BE A REALLY GOOD ONE. HIS STRENGTH IS FOREIGN POLICY, NATIONAL SECURITY. NOT SOMETHING YOU WANT TO TALK ABOUT IN MICHIGAN RIGHT NOW. I MEAN, THE WAR IS INCREDIBLY UNPOPULAR. AND HE LOST ALYSIS SLOTKIN BY A COUPLE POINTS IN A GOOD ELECTION YEAR FOR REPUBLICANS. YOU IMAGINE IT'S PLUS FIVE MINIMUM RIGHT NOW FOR DEMOCRATS. AND HE'S RUNNING THE SAME CAMPAIGN HE RAN LAST TIME. SO I DON'T KNOW. I MEAN, I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE ELECTABILITY IS OF AN ABDUL AL-SAYED. BUT HE'S GOT A LOT OF ENERGY. HE'S GOING TO ROLL OVER THE ESTABLISHMENT IF ALL THE POLLING IS CORRECT. I WOULD SAY MICHIGAN POLLING IS NOTORIOUSLY BAD. SO WE CAN'T GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THAT. BUT, LOOK, THIS IS WORTH THINKING ABOUT. MICHIGAN IS A KEY STATE FOR 28. AND DEMOCRATS, REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS, HAVE GOT TO START PAYING ATTENTION TO IT. [00:27:47] Speaker 3: WELL, AND AS WE TALK ABOUT IT BEING POTENTIALLY A LOSS FOR THE ESTABLISHMENT IF HE WOULD WIN, GENIE, HE ALSO FRAMES IT AS ABOUT NOT BEING JUST THE ESTABLISHMENT, BUT ABOUT THE IDEA OF MONEY IN POLITICS. HE HAS FREQUENTLY BROUGHT UP THE CONTRIBUTIONS THAT HAYLEY STEPHEN'S CAMPAIGN HAS RECEIVED FROM APAC AND THE LOBBY FOR ISRAELI INTERESTS, AS WELL AS OTHER KIND OF CORPORATE ASPECTS, INCLUDING A UTILITY IN MICHIGAN. BUT FOR APAC SPECIFICALLY, I WONDER WHAT SIGNAL THIS SENDS ABOUT THEIR POTENTIAL WANING POWER OR THE REVERSE INFLUENCE IT HAS IF THEY SPEND MORE MONEY ON A CANDIDATE THAT IT ACTUALLY COULD BACKFIRE. [00:28:28] Speaker 1: YEAH, AND THIS IS WHERE I THINK WHEN RICK TALKS ABOUT HOW AL-SAYED IS, TO A CERTAIN EXTENT, YOU KNOW, THE LEFT'S DEFINITION OR REFLECTION OF MAGA, YOU SEE THAT. NOT ONLY IS HE WEIGHT LIFTING KAYLEIGH IN HIS BASEMENT, AND WE ARE SEEING THINGS LIKE THAT, AND SPEAKING TRUTH TO POWER, BUT HE IS ALSO SAYING, I DON'T NEED CORRUPT, AS HE CALLS IT. AND I'M NOT SAYING APAC'S MONEY IS CORRUPT, BUT I DON'T NEED OUTSIDE CORRUPT MONEY TO WIN. LOOK AT THE MILLIONS THAT APAC AND OUTSIDERS HAVE DUMPED INTO HER CAMPAIGN. EARNED MEDIA IS NOT GOING TO WIN THESE THINGS ANYMORE. I CAN DO THIS BY TALKING TO LEFT-WING PODCASTERS LIKE PIKER AND OTHERS. SO HE IS SORT OF PULLING A DONALD TRUMP, IF YOU WILL. I CAN SPEND A LOT LESS, I CAN NOT BE BEHOLDEN TO THESE BIG INTERESTS, AND I CAN WIN. IF THAT PROVES TO BE THE CASE, AND I AGREE WITH RICK, PARTICULARLY MICHIGAN, BUT PRIMARY POLLING IS REALLY TOUGH TO DO. BUT IF IT PROVES TO BE THE CASE THAT HE WINS, I THINK YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE A RECKONING IN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY, EVEN MORE SO THAN WE'VE SEEN ALREADY, ABOUT HOW THEY CONNECT WITH AND HOW THEY UTILIZE APAC GOING FORWARD. WE ALREADY SAW THAT VOTE ON ISRAEL NOT THAT LONG AGO IN THE HOUSE WITH A NUMBER OF DEMOCRATS VOTING AGAINST ISRAEL, I THINK THEY MAY BE LOOKING AT THIS AND SAYING ALL OF THAT MONEY DID NOTHING. AND IN FACT, NOT ONLY DIDN'T IT JUST EVEN THE FIELD, IT HURT HER. AND THAT MAY CAUSE THEM TO RECONSIDER THIS MONEY. SO A LOT SORT OF AT STAKE, NOT JUST FOR APEC, NOT JUST FOR THE ESTABLISHMENT, RATHER, BUT APEC AS WELL AND THIS EARNED MEDIA MONEY FLOWING IN. [00:30:14] Speaker 2: WE SHOULD NOTE JUST THE HEADLINE CROSSING THE TERMINAL. JAY CLAYTON HAS BEEN SWORN IN AS THE NATION'S NEW DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE. THEY DID NOT OPEN THE SWEARING INTO REPORTERS, THOUGH I'M SURE WE'LL BE SEEING AN IMAGE SHORTLY, BILL PULTIE NO LONGER DNI. I WANT TO ASK YOU BOTH ABOUT THIS REUTERS IPSOS POLL TODAY. RICK, YOU TALKED ABOUT THE HEADWINDS FACING MIKE ROGERS AND WHY THIS MIGHT NOT BE THE FRIENDLIEST CYCLE FOR HIM. AND WE FIND THAT AMERICANS ARE CHOOSING DEMOCRATS OVER REPUBLICANS AS BETTER STEWARDS OF THE ECONOMY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST A DECADE. SINCE 2017 IN THIS POLL, 37% OF REGISTERED VOTERS SAID THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS A BETTER APPROACH TO THE ECONOMY COMPARED WITH 36 WHO PICKED THE REPUBLICAN PARTY. IT'S ONLY A POINT AND WITHIN A MARGIN. BUT THE FACT IS IT'S THE FIRST TIME WE'VE SEEN IT IN SO MANY YEARS. 27% SAID THEY WERE NOT SURE. HOW DOES THAT PLAY NATIONALLY? DO YOU PAY ATTENTION TO A NUMBER THAT CLOSE? [00:31:16] Speaker 10: YEAH, I TRY NOT TO PAY TOO MUCH ATTENTION TO NATIONAL POLITICS WHEN YOU'VE GOT, YOU KNOW, AN ELECTION CYCLE THAT'S REALLY DICTATED BY STATE POLITICS. BUT MICHIGAN, SINCE WE'RE TALKING ABOUT IT, IS A REALLY GOOD EXAMPLE. ECONOMIC DRIVERS THERE ARE HUGE. AND THEY'RE VERY GRUMPY AND UPSET WITH THIS ADMINISTRATION. I MEAN, DONALD TRUMP'S APPROVAL RATING IN THE STATE OF MICHIGAN IS IN THE LOW 30s. I MEAN, IT'S FIVE POINTS BELOW MOST POLLS NATIONALLY. AND SO IT DOES GET WORSE WHEN YOU START LOOKING INTO A MICROCOSM OF SOME OF THESE IMPORTANT STATES LIKE MICHIGAN. IT SHOULD WAKE EVERYBODY UP THAT THE FIRST TIME WE'RE SEEING A NATIONAL POLL THAT INDICATES THAT DEMOCRATS WILL MANAGE THE ECONOMY BETTER. BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE RHETORIC FROM THE WHITE HOUSE, AND I THINK A LOT OF IT'S COMMUNICATIONS, IS, YOU KNOW, LIKE, WE NEVER TALK ABOUT HOW THE ECONOMY THAT WE HAVE TODAY IS IMPACTING THE LIVES OF VOTERS. AND WE LIKE TO TALK ABOUT THE MARKETS, BUT THAT'S NOT THE SAME. [00:32:14] Speaker 2: IT'S NOT THE SAME, RICK. YOU'RE RIGHT. AND WE'LL HAVE A LOT MORE WITH OUR PANEL ON THE RESULTS OF THIS CONTEST TOMORROW. RICK DAVIS AND JEANIE SHANZANO, THANK YOU BOTH FOR GREAT ANALYSIS AS ALWAYS. WE'LL TURN BACK TO THE WAR WITH IRAN. OUR CONVERSATION WITH SUZANNE MALONEY [00:32:32] Speaker ?: COMING UP NEXT FROM BROOKINGS ONLY ON BLOOMBERG. [00:32:34] Speaker 4: IT'S 1:40 ON WALL STREET. WE DO CHECK MARKETS ALL DAY LONG HERE AT BLOOMBERG. YOU DON'T SEE DAYS LIKE THIS THAT OFTEN. WE ARE LOOKING AT A MAJOR MOVE HIGHER FOR THE U.S. EQUITY MARKET RIGHT NOW. THIS ON PEACE HOPE. OIL IS FALLING. STOCKS ARE SURGING. WE'RE LOOKING AT RECORDS ON THE DOW, RECORDS ON THE S&P 500 INDEX, RIGHT TO THE NUMBERS HERE. WE'VE GOT FAST MOVING MARKETS TO THE UPSIDE. S&P RIGHT NOW, IT'S 77.43, UP 142 POINTS, UP 1.9%. DOWN INDUSTRIALS UP 1,037 POINTS, NOW UP BY 2%. DOWN INDUSTRIALS, AS I MENTIONED, UP BY 1.9% NOW. 54,214, THE BIG QUESTION. WE'RE GOING TO CLOSE ABOVE 54K TODAY. NASDAQ UP 676 POINTS, UP 2.6%. THE NASDAQ 100 INDEX IS UP 950 POINTS FOR THAT INDEX, AN ADVANCE OF 3.3%. THE BLOOMBERG MAG 7 INDEX, NOW UP BY ALMOST 1%. THE SOX, THE PHILADELPHIA STOCK EXCHANGE SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX, UP BY 6.8%. AMT SHARES SURGING 8.8%, ADVANCE MICRO DEVICES AFTER THE BELL TODAY. SPACEX WILL ALSO REPORTING, BE REPORTING AFTER THE CLOSE OF TRADING. SPACEX UP 8.2%. THE VIX, BELOW 17 NOW. WE'VE GOT THE TWO-YEAR, YIELDING 4.19%. THE 10-YEAR, 4.62%. THE 30-YEAR, 5.19%. GOLD, 4,094, THE ONCE UP BY 1%. WTI CRUDE 75.67 A BARREL, DOWN 5.8%. BRENT CRUDE 79.20, DOWN 5.4%, FALLING BACK BELOW $80 A BARREL. EARNINGS NEWS, SHARES OF PALANTIER UP 29.5% AFTER LAST NIGHT'S REPORT. THIS MORNING WE HEARD FROM CATERPILLAR. CATERPILLAR ABSOLUTELY CRUSHING WALL STREET EXPECTATIONS. SHARES OF THE HEAVY EQUIPMENT MAKER UP BY 6.8%. DUPONT, THE CHEMICAL MAKER, RAISING ITS FULL-YEAR OUTLOOK FOR THE SECOND TIME THIS YEAR. SHARES OF DUPONT, HOWEVER, DOWN BY 6/10 OF 1%. AGAIN, BEARS REPEATING AFTER THE CLOSE OF TRADING, ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES, SPACEX, WE'RE GOING TO BE ALL OVER THOSE NUMBERS AS THEY BREAK. JOE AND KAYLEIGH, THAT IS A BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH. [00:34:53] Speaker 3: WE WILL INDEED. CHARLIE PELLETT, THANK YOU VERY MUCH. AS CHARLIE NOTED, WE ARE SEEING SPACEX RALLYING AHEAD OF ITS EARNINGS TODAY. UP 8%. THAT BRINGS IT TO ABOUT $124 A SHARE. SO, SURE, THAT IS BETTER THAN YESTERDAY'S CLOSE. BUT WE HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE IPO PRICE WAS $135 A SHARE. AFTER TRADING STARTED, IT WENT AS HIGH AS 225. SO, 124 ON A RELATIVE BASIS IS OBVIOUSLY SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER. WE HAVE SEEN ABOUT A TRILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF MARKET VALUE ERASED SINCE THIS COMPANY WENT PUBLIC. I GUESS IT RAISES THE QUESTION, JOE, OF WHETHER THAT MEANS A LOWER BAR FOR THE EARNINGS RESULTS OR POTENTIALLY A HIGH BAR TO TRY AND GET THE RALLY [00:35:32] Speaker ?: GOING AGAIN. [00:35:32] Speaker 2: WELL, THERE'S ALSO SOMETHING THAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN TWO DAYS LATER. AND THAT'S THE EXPIRATION OF THE FIRST MAJOR LOCKUP HERE THAT WILL DUMP SOMETHING LIKE 900 MILLION SHARES ON THE MARKET. IF MY NUMBERS ARE CORRECT, ED WILL LET ME KNOW. THAT MAKES ONE WONDER IF THIS EARNINGS REPORT IS USEFUL AT ALL. ED LUDLOW COVERS THIS FOR A LIVING AS THE HOST OF BLOOMBERG TECH. HE JOINS US RIGHT NOW LIVE FROM SAN FRANCISCO AHEAD OF ANOTHER BUSY NIGHT. I KNOW WE'LL BE TALKING A LITTLE BIT LATER AFTER THE CLOSE. BUT WHAT'S YOUR THOUGHT ON THIS? DOES THIS REPORT MATTER KNOWING WHAT'S COMING THURSDAY? [00:36:05] Speaker 11: YOU KNOW, IT'S THE BIG EVENT OF THE SUMMER FOR FINANCIAL MARKETS IS HOW IT'S BEING FRAMED. YOU KNOW, IT'S THE FIRST EARNINGS, RIGHT? JUST IN REALLY SIMPLE TERMS. IT'S THE FIRST EARNINGS REPORT, THE FIRST CALL SINCE SPACEX'S IPO. AND THE PROBLEM WITH ALL OF THE INFORMATION THAT SPACEX GAVE IN THE DOCUMENTS JUST BEFORE IT WENT PUBLIC WAS IT WAS EITHER COMPLETELY BACKWARD-LOOKING. SO THEY TOLD US HOW MUCH MONEY THEY'D SPENT, FOR EXAMPLE, LAST YEAR, THE YEAR BEFORE, THE FIRST THREE MONTHS OF THIS YEAR, BUT GAVE US NO INDICATION OF THE FUTURE. SO THIS IS THE FIRST CHANCE FOR PEOPLE TO ASK ABOUT IT. YOU KNOW, HOW MUCH MONEY ARE THEY GOING TO HAVE TO SPEND THIS YEAR AND NEXT YEAR TO REACH THE SORT OF OUT OF THIS WORLD AMBITIONS? HOW ARE THE DIFFERENT BUSINESSES DOING IN THE HERE AND NOW AND TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THAT EVERYTHING THAT THIS IPO WAS BASED ON WERE BUSINESSES THAT DON'T EXIST YET OR ARE GOING TO COME FAR INTO THE FUTURE? [00:37:00] Speaker 3: WELL, AND THEREIN LIES WHAT A LOT OF PEOPLE HAD QUESTIONS ABOUT AT THE ONSET WHEN THEY SAW THAT PERSPECTUS AND HOW MUCH IT SEEMED TO BE RELIANT ON HOPES AND DREAMS. AND IT'S A LITTLE BIT MORE TANGIBLE FOR AMD, WHICH IS ALSO REPORTING AFTER THE BELL. WHAT ARE WE EXPECTING THERE? [00:37:15] Speaker 11: YEAH, LOOK, AMD IS A REALLY SIMPLE STORY. THEY ARE A DISTANT NUMBER TWO PLAYER IN THE MARKET FOR GPU'S OR CHIPS THAT EITHER TRAIN AI MODELS OR RUN AI MODELS. BUT THEY WOULD TELL YOU THEY HAVE A TECHNOLOGY ADVANTAGE. AT THE SERVER LEVEL, THEIR CHIPS IN THE FORM OF A SERVER IN AGGREGATE REALLY PERFORM, PARTICULARLY ON RUNNING AI MODELS, WHAT WE CALL INFERENCE. EACH QUARTER THAT GOES BY, YOU MEASURE THE GROWTH IN AMD SALES AND THE DEPLOYMENT OF ITS TECHNOLOGY AROUND THE WORLD AND TRY AND CALCULATE IF THEY ARE BRIDGING THE GAP TO NVIDIA, WHICH, AS WE SAID FOR A LONG TIME, HAS A NEAR TECHNICAL MONOPOLY ON THE MARKET FOR THAT COMPUTE IN AI. [00:37:57] Speaker 2: WE HAVE A LONG TIME, WE HAVE A LONG TIME, WE HAVE A LONG TIME AND WE HAVE A LONG TIME. DUMMY IN WASHINGTON ASKING A QUESTION HERE, ED. DO CPUs MATTER MORE THAN GPUs AT THIS POINT? [00:38:14] Speaker 11: IF YOU ARE LOOKING AT THE MARKET HERE IN AN NVIDIA VERSUS AN AMD VERSUS AN INTEL, WHO HAS THE BETTER STORY? A CPU CAN BASICALLY RUN A SINGLE PROCESS. THERE ARE PROCESSES INVOLVED IN AI THAT REQUIRE CPUs. AMD HAS A VERY GOOD CPU PRODUCT. INTEL HAS A VERY GOOD CPU PRODUCT. BASICALLY, THE MARKET'S CAUGHT UP WITH IT THEMSELVES. THEY ARE LIKE, OKAY, IF YOU ARE GOING TO BUILD LOS OF DATA CENTERS THAT HAVE LOTS OF ROWS OF SERVERS, AREN'T YOU ALSO JUST GOING TO NEED A PROPORTIONATE NUMBER OF CPUs? THE ANSWER IS YES, YES YOU DO. AND AMD WILL HAVE A STORY AROUND THAT FOR SURE. IT'S A POINT OF DIFFERENTIATION OR HAS BEEN WITH NVIDIA. THE PROBLEM IS NVIDIA ARE LIKE, HEY, SHOULDN'T WE DO CPUs TOO? AND NOW THEY DO. THEY HAVE CONTINUED TO TRY AND PULL AHEAD IN THAT RESPECT AS WELL. ALL RIGHT. THE HOST OF BLOOMBERG TECH, ED LUDLOW WILL BE CHECKING BACK IN WITH ED, AS JOE SAID, LATER THIS AFTERNOON, TO BREAK DOWN THESE RESULTS. [00:39:05] Speaker 3: AND THANK YOU VERY MUCH. AND OF COURSE, THE RESULTS FROM AMD AND SpaceX COULD VERY WELL SEND A SIGNAL TO THE WIDER MARKET AND DETERMINE THE DIRECTION OF TRAVEL IN THE TRADING DAY TOMORROW. IN THE TRADING DAY TODAY, OBVIOUSLY, THAT DIRECTION BY AND LARGE IS UP. AS WE SEE STOCKS RALLYING IN PART BECAUSE BOND YIELDS AND OIL PRICES ARE MOVING LOWER. IT DOES SEEM LIKE THIS IS A MARKET PUTTING A LOT OF FAITH INTO THE NOTION THAT THERE COULD BE A DEAL IN THE OFFING BETWEEN THE U.S. AND IRAN. AS OF COURSE, PRESIDENT TRUMP IN THE OVAL OFFICE YESTERDAY SUGGESTED HE WANTED TO GIVE IRAN ONE LITTLE LAST CHANCE TO NEGOTIATE BEFORE DECAPITATION. SO HOW REAL IS THIS? AND ARE THE MARKETS THINKING ABOUT THIS THE RIGHT WAY? THAT'S WHAT WE POSE NOW TO SUZANNE MALONEY, VICE PRESIDENT AND DIRECTOR FOR FOREIGN POLICY AT THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION WHO'S JOINING US NOW ON BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO. SUZANNE, GREAT TO HAVE YOU ON THE PROGRAM. DO YOU BELIEVE THAT THIS IS REALLY IRAN'S LAST CHANCE? SHOULD THEY? I THINK THE IRANIANS WANT TO [00:40:06] Speaker 12: DEAL BECAUSE IT WILL BE GOOD FOR THEIR OWN ECONOMY BECAUSE THEY ARE SUFFERING UNDER THE WEIGHT OF U.S. STRIKES OVER THE COURSE OF THE PAST FIVE MONTHS AND AS WELL AS THE EMBARGO THAT THE UNITED STATES HAS IMPOSED THROUGH THIS BLOCKADE OF THE PERSIAN GULF. SO THEY WANT AN END TO THIS. BUT THEY ARE NOT PREPARED TO RELINQUISH WHAT THEY BELIEVE IS THE MAJOR STRATEGIC LEVERAGE THEY GAINED FROM THIS WAR AND THAT IS CONTROL OF THE STRAIGHT OF HORMOUS. WE ARE I THINK AT THIS POINT CLOSE TO AN AGREEMENT THAT WOULD ECHO SOME OF THE LANGUAGE IN THE MOU THAT WAS SIGNED LAST MONTH BUT PERHAPS WITH A BIT MORE SPECIFICITY AND WOULD PERHAPS PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT MORE LONGEVITY TO SOME KIND OF AN END TO THE WAR. [00:40:54] Speaker 2: SHOCKING REPORT SUZANNE BY REUTERS THIS MORNING THE U.S. ARMY HAS USED UP QUOTE VIRTUALLY ALL UNQUOTE OF ITS LONG-RANGE MISSILES DURING THE CONFLICT WITH IRAN. ARE WE AT THE POINT NOW WHERE OUR MUNITIONS LEVELS ARE DICTATING STRATEGIC DECISIONS? [00:41:09] Speaker 12: YES I BELIEVE THAT WE ARE AND I ACTUALLY THINK WE'VE BEEN AT THAT POINT FOR QUITE SOME TIME. I THINK THAT IT WAS THE CONCERN ABOUT BOTH INTERCEPTERS AND PRECISION STRIKE MISSILES AND ATTACKS THAT WAS ONE OF THE MAJOR FACTORS IN DRIVING THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION TO AGREE TO THE MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING WITH IRAN LAST MONTH. AND IT IS A MAJOR I THINK POINT OF HESITATION FOR THE ADMINISTRATION PARTICULARLY FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR WHOSE LEADERS HAVE ARTICULATED THE CONCERN ABOUT RETURNING TO FULL-SCALE WAR WITH IRAN SIMPLY BECAUSE OF THE READINESS IMPLICATIONS THAT IT LEAVES FOR THE UNITED STATES MILITARY NOT JUST WITH RESPECT TO THE MIDDLE EAST BUT WITH RESPECT TO OTHER THEATERS AS WELL. [00:41:54] Speaker 3: WELL SO IF IRAN UNDERSTANDS THIS IF THIS IS REPORTED IN MEDIA AND THEY HEAR ABOUT IT AND ASSUME THAT IT IS TRUE WHY WOULD THEY BE NEGOTIATING WITH THE U.S. RIGHT NOW? DOES IT NOT SIGNAL THAT ACTUALLY THEY COULD WAIT US OUT? I THINK THEY COULD WAIT US OUT BUT [00:42:11] Speaker 12: IT WOULD COME AT A HIGH COST TO THEIR OWN ECONOMY. THE BLOCKADE IS HAVING ITS IMPACT. THE IRANIANS WOULD LIKE TO GET BACK TO TRYING TO REBUILD WHAT WAS DAMAGED AND THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO IRAN'S CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE AS WELL AS ITS MILITARY INFRASTRUCTURE DURING THE WAR. THEY HAVE TO CONSOLIDATE A REGIME WHICH ALREADY LOST A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF PLAYERS AND THEY KNOW THAT THEIR OWN PEOPLE WERE SERIOUSLY DISSATISFIED BEFORE THE WAR BEGAN WITH THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY. SO THERE ARE SOME REAL PRESSURE. BUT I THINK THE IRANIANS ARE MORE RESILIENT THAN WE GAVE THEM CREDIT FOR AND THEY ARE PREPARED TO KIND OF DEPLOY THAT RESILIENCE AS LEVERAGE IN THE NEGOTIATIONS. IT SOUNDS AS THOUGH THEY ARE GETTING MOST OF WHAT THEY WANTED OUT OF THE TERMS THAT WE ARE HEARING ABOUT IN THE MEDIA AT [00:42:57] Speaker 2: THIS POINT. HOW MANY TIMES WILL THE PRESIDENT BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY IN HIS THREATS IF HE CONTINUES TO PULL THEM BACK EITHER BY REQUEST OF IRAN'S NEIGHBORS OR IN HOPES OF A DEAL? THE NEW YORK POST THIS MORNING WRITING THAT IT IS NOW 13 TIMES. THIS IS THE 13TH FINAL ULTIMATUM THAT HE HAS DELIVERED. WHAT DO THE IRANIANS THINK OF THAT? [00:43:23] Speaker 12: IT IS A BIT LIKE A THEATRICAL PERFORMANCE AT THIS POINT. I THINK THE IRANIANS HAVE TAKEN THE MEASURE OF PRESIDENT TRUMP. THEY HAVE ASSESSED BOTH THE VULNERABILITY OF THE U.S. ECONOMY AND THE WIDER GLOBAL ECONOMY TO A LONG-TERM CLOSURE OF THE STRAIGHT OF HOMUZE AS WELL AS THE POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES FOR THE PRESIDENT IF THERE WERE TO BE A DISRUPTION THAT IMPACTED OIL PRICES AND THE WIDER ECONOMY IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS THIS FALL. SO THEY APPRECIATE THAT HIS BLUSTER IS JUST THAT. BUT I THINK THERE IS ALWAYS THE CHANCE THAT HE DOES DELIVER. AND THEY HAVE NOW EXPERIENCED TWO WARS. THE JUNE 12-DAY WAR IN 2025 AND THIS LONGER WAR AND MORE AMBITIOUS WAR WHERE THE IRANIANS APPEAR TO HAVE SURVIVED. BUT THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF WORK TO DO IF THEY WANT TO HANG ON TO POWER. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. [00:44:15] Speaker 3: THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. [00:44:38] Speaker 12: THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. THEY'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. [00:45:26] Speaker 2: SUZANNE, DO YOU BELIEVE EITHER SIDE'S VERSION WHEN IT COMES TO THE STATUS OF NEGOTIATIONS? [00:45:36] Speaker 12: I THINK IT'S VERY HARD TO TAKE SERIOUSLY WHAT WE'VE BEEN HEARING BECAUSE THE PRESIDENT HAS HIS OWN INCENTIVES TO SORT OF INFLATE WHAT HE'S HEARING FROM THE IRANIANS. HE IS EITHER VERY, VERY NEGATIVE OR HE'S OVERWHELMINGLY POSITIVE. AND NEITHER ONE OF THOSE EXTREMES SOUNDS ENTIRELY PERSUASIVE TO ME. BUT THE REPORTING AT THIS POINT DOES TO SUGGEST SOME OF THE PUBLIC STATEMENTS BY KATRI MEDIATORS AND OTHERS THAT THEY FEEL THAT THEY'RE GETTING CLOSE TO SOME KIND OF AN ARRANGEMENT. I THINK IT'S INEVITABLE THAT WE'LL BE BACK IN THIS POSITION ONCE AGAIN. THAT THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKDOWN IN TERMS OF THE UNDERSTANDING OR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND IRAN. I THINK IT'S LIKELY -- WE'RE LIKELY TO SEE INSTABILITY AND OCCASIONAL FLARE-UP OF VIOLENCE IN THE GULF MORE WIDELY AND ESPECIALLY AROUND THE STRAIGHT OF FORMOS FOR THE WEEKS AND MONTHS TO COME. THIS IS NOT A ONE AND DONE SOLUTION TO ANYTHING. [00:46:28] Speaker 3: SO POTENTIALLY STILL STATUS QUO OR AT LEAST VOLATILITY COME MIDTERM ELECTION DAY IN NOVEMBER. [00:46:35] Speaker 12: I THINK THAT'S ABSOLUTELY TO BE EXPECTED. THIS VOLATILITY IS JUST GOING TO BE A FUNCTION OF THE PURGING GULF ECONOMY FOR THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE INVESTMENTS IN ALTERNATIVE ROUTHS THAT WOULD AVOID THE STRAIGHT OF HOMOS AND OTHER TYPES OF ARRANGEMENTS THAT ENABLE GREATER RESILIENCE ON THE PART OF THE GULF STATES. THEY EXPERIENCED A TREMENDOUS DISRUPTION OVER THE COURSE OF THE PAST FIVE PLUS MONTHS. AND THEY'RE IN A POSITION, I THINK, TO ENSURE THAT THEY DON'T SEE THAT HAPPEN AGAIN. [00:47:07] Speaker 2: SHE'S THE VICE PRESIDENT DIRECTOR FOR FOREIGN POLICY AT BROOKING'S INSTITUTION. SUZANNE MALONEY, IT'S GREAT TO HAVE YOU BACK, SUZANNE. THANK YOU FOR JOINING US ON BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO. IT'S REMARKABLE, CAILEY, EVERY TIME WE HAVE ASKED SOMEONE THAT QUESTION. WILL THIS STILL BE UNDERWAY ON NOVEMBER 3rd? WE'VE GOT THE SAME ANSWER. AND THAT'S YES. [00:47:26] Speaker 3: YES, WHICH DOESN'T NECESSARILY SPELL GOOD NEWS FOR THE INCUMBENTS IN POWER IN WASHINGTON AND THE REPUBLICAN PARTY SPECIFICALLY, ALTHOUGH REPUBLICANS MAY BE HOPING TO GET A LITTLE BIT MORE GOOD NEWS IN MICHIGAN TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF GETTING THEIR PREFERRED CANDIDATE TO GO UP AGAINST MIKE ROGERS. ABDUL ELSEYED, OF COURSE, FAVORED OVER HAYLEY STEPHENS. WE'LL BE DISCUSSING MORE ON THAT ON THE LATE EDITION. WE SHALL. ALTHOUGH RICK DAVIS POINTING TO THE [00:47:45] Speaker 2: ENERGY OUT THERE. WE'LL SEE WHO IS A MORE SUCCESSFUL GENERAL ELECTION CANDIDATE. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. This is Bloomberg.