Trump: Iran attacks ships : Tensions escalate in Hormuz

[0:00] Now, US President Donald Trump has posted on social media [0:02] about reported attacks on commercial vessels in the strait. [0:06] He said Iran has taken some shots at unrelated nations [0:09] with respect to the ship movement. [0:12] Project Freedom, including a South Korean cargo ship. [0:15] Perhaps it's time, he says, for South Korea to come and join the mission. [0:18] We've shot down several small boats, [0:21] or as they like to call them, fast boats. [0:23] That's all they have left. [0:25] Other than the South Korean ship, there has been, at this moment, [0:27] no damage going through the strait. [0:31] Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff Dan Cain [0:35] will have a news conference, and that will be tomorrow morning. [0:38] Let's bring in Mike Pfeifferle, who's founder and president [0:41] of off-the-record strategies and a US national security analyst, [0:45] and joins us now from Washington, D.C. [0:47] Mark, great to have you with us. [0:49] You've often spoken of Donald Trump timing major moves on a weekend, [0:54] and so it was last night with the announcement of Project Freedom. [0:56] Is there no more calculation than that in this, do you think? [1:02] I think it's that, of course. [1:04] Mr. Trump focuses on the openings of the markets. [1:07] He's done that several times now during this blockade. [1:11] At the same time, he's also trying to test the Iranian chokehold. [1:15] It's a very narrow passage. [1:17] He thinks he can get leverage, and it's likely he can, [1:20] if a significant amount of ships can make it through during this Project Freedom tactic, [1:26] and that way that he can get leverage that can then be used against the Iranians [1:30] as ships get through that have the U.S. support, [1:35] while the Iranian ships are unable to move its way through the Strait of Hormuz. [1:39] So it's more of a tactical way to test the process for Mr. Trump [1:45] as he continues to find leverage in this sequencing battle that he has right now with Tehran. [1:52] Tehran, of course, wants to open up the Strait of Hormuz to their vessels and all vessels [1:59] and then talk about the nuclear issue at a future date to be named later. [2:04] Mr. Trump says, no, give over your nukes now, [2:08] and then we will also open up the Strait of Hormuz. [2:12] So that's what's going on right now. [2:14] It's a battle for who can get the most pressure on the other one [2:18] to move the negotiation forward in a positive way. [2:22] But is it likely to bridge the chasm between the two sides, [2:26] especially on the nuclear issue? Can they narrow that gap? [2:30] So it remains to be seen. [2:32] So all of this pressure is having significant impact on both sides. [2:37] The Iranians are seeing enormous pressure on their economy. [2:40] Of course, they get about 30 to 40 percent of their country's wealth from oil [2:45] that is unable to move to market. [2:47] That has had a significant impact on their economy, 50 percent plus inflation. [2:53] The numbers of the real right now are 1.84 million of their real to a U.S. dollar. [3:00] Their economy is not doing well, to say the least. [3:04] They are seeing a situation right now where they haven't had the Internet for over two months, [3:10] except if you are part of the regime. [3:12] So that limits their ability to do basic commerce to move their economy forward. [3:18] So the Americans' hope is that this blockade has such an impact on them, [3:23] on the Iranians, that they have to come back to the negotiation table. [3:26] Now, of course, it goes both sides. [3:28] We've seen oil spikes in the Brent oil numbers at over $113 per barrel. [3:35] We see in America that the price per gallon of gas is well over $4 right now. [3:42] So both sides are hurting. [3:44] The hope by the Trump administration is that so much pressure is put on the Iranian regime [3:49] for their ability to conduct basic government functions. [3:53] Millions of people in Iran are moving towards poverty. [3:57] They're having a difficult time just paying for food. [4:00] Right. [4:01] And that that puts enough pressure on to bring them to the table back to Islamabad, [4:05] or at least on the telephone, to talk real issues about a long-term ceasefire. [4:11] You talked about this working both ways. [4:13] How much pressure is Donald Trump under domestically? [4:17] And has he written off the midterms now? [4:21] So I think there's significant pressure on Mr. Trump. [4:24] Of course, he has elections coming up in November. [4:28] Right now, his political party is behind quite significantly in the battle [4:33] for who controls the U.S. House and the U.S. Senate. [4:35] But at the same time, he is also a president who looks at the gas price [4:40] and takes pride in the fact that it's lower, it was anyway, than before he took office [4:47] and that the stock market is up, unemployment is down, inflation is steady. [4:51] He looks at those markers and he sees that as his internal report card. [4:55] Right now, the main thing we've seen is that increase in gas prices [5:00] that has caused millions of dollars and added money that has to be spent out of our economy [5:05] for higher gas prices, and that's going to have a long-term effect on supply chains. [5:10] We saw one U.S. small airline go under this past weekend, [5:15] partially because of an increase in jet fuel. [5:18] So it is having an impact. [5:20] But at this point, he has stayed very strident in his public messaging about this war [5:26] and continues to focus on Iran and continual messages to hopefully bring them to the table. [5:32] All right, Mark Fifley, thanks very much indeed for that. [5:34] Thank you.