Tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 may not be enough to meet climate goals: IRENA chief

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Now, the world added a record 692 gigawatts of renewable power capacity last year. And this is according to the International Renewable Energy Agency. That's equivalent to more than half of what all of all the plants in the US can generate combined. Well, I'll put it another way. Renewables accounted for nearly 86% of all new power capacity worldwide. And with the Middle East energy crisis, the International Renewable Energy Agency, also known as Irina, says geopolitical shocks and rising fossil fuel costs strengthen the case for clean energy. Now, to find out more, let's cross over to Roland Lim. And he's at the Singapore International Energy Week. Roland, so, you know, it sounds like we've reached a turning point for renewables. [00:00:50] Roland Lim: Yes, indeed, Glenda. I mean, the past eight months have actually strengthened the economic case for renewables, but has at the same time raised questions, difficult questions, about deployment speed, about energy security, grid reliability and financing. Now, can the momentum continue? So who better to answer these questions than Francesco La Camera, who is Director General at Irina. Francesco, good to have you on the show. Now, you've argued that the Middle East energy crisis, now that's strengthened the case for renewables as a matter of national energy security rather than renewable climate policy. But can this or has this already translated into a lasting shift in Asia's energy shift? [00:01:34] Francesco La Camera: First of all, thanks for having me as a tradition in the occasion of the Singapore Energy Week. So, not only after the Middle East crisis, but if you remember, after the COVID, people were thinking that the international nation was going to be delayed and was just the opposite. And then when the war in Ukraine started, people thought that the international nation was going to slow down. It was the opposite. And now, what we are assisting in the first six months of the year and increasing investment in tools related to renewable energy, especially in the western part of the world. So, naturally, what we are assisting is that there will be, in the last year, a continued record of a new renewable solar capacity. This is what we have assisted, and after any crisis, this trend has been gaining speed and scale. [00:02:39] Roland Lim: How do you see governments here preparing themselves to scale back on reliance on imported LNG and to accelerate investments into their homegrown renewable industries? [00:02:52] Francesco La Camera: You know, we are the International Renewable Energy Agency, but we never ask for phasing out fossil fuel because we know that it is impossible to do in the short term. So, it is a process that is going on, but it is inevitable. If you look at the last three years, where 90% almost of power capacity installed was renewables. What does it mean? That the mix of the energy system is changing. And there is no doubt, because the numbers say that we are moving to a new energy system that will be largely dominated by renewables, complemented by hydrogen and the sustainable use of biomass. And what is relevant, as you touched on this point, as the aspect of the security, you know, where the International Energy Agency was funded 50 years ago, was because the understanding was the security was through fossil fuels, the need of the agency to regulate the market in some way. Now, with all these three crises, one after the other, we see that people are relying on renewables, on a decentralized energy system that appear to be intrinsically more secure than fossil fuel one. [00:04:18] Roland Lim: I mean, yes, there is evidence to that. I mean, global renewable installations, that's being installed at breakneck speeds, but deployment, that's still falling short of what is required. I mean, is the tripling of renewable capacity by 2030, is that still realistically achievable? And what would it take to close that gap? [00:04:39] Francesco La Camera: You know, we are getting closer, closer to the triple. So the 11.2 terabyte by 2030. And we are proceeding, we will not get there exactly, but very close to it. But the question is that, when the triple was conceived, it was expecting a certain decrease of increase in the demand, and it also was associated to the double of energy efficiency. But the fact that demand has been rising faster because of the change in lifestyle, more heating, more cooling, also the contribution of data center artificial intelligence. From the other side, we have had not very good progress in energy efficiency. This means that the gap between supply and demand has been widening. So the question is that, also, if we keep the triple, this could be not enough to take the ship on the right pathway to the achievement of the Paris Agreement goal. This is why ARENA is working to design a roadmap to put the ship again in the good way. [00:05:49] Roland Lim: And you've also argued that renewables can deliver reliable electricity round the clock. With AI and with data centers driving, you know, that uninterrupted power, can renewables and batteries, can that genuinely, at the end of the day, replace gas-fired generation? Absolutely. [00:06:10] Francesco La Camera: I've been twice in the last couple of years in the province of China called Chinggai, and there is one data center, there is one of the biggest data centers in the world. You can imagine that you have three central nuclear power to feed them. No, no, they have a concentration of solar power, wind, solar, PV, and wind and hydro is working. Now they are, as we demonstrated recently, renewables plus storage is more convenient than building a new gas plant. This is the reality of the number. Naturally, we have to take into consideration the different situation in different countries, in different regions, so we don't say that gas is not needed. The only thing that we know, that to stay on a pathway consistent with the Apparition Agreement goal, fossil fuel should be declining, smoothly, but declining. [00:07:11] Roland Lim: And so if renewables are cheaper than fossil fuel in most markets, why do Asian governments, why do they invest or continue to invest in gas and in coal? [00:07:23] Francesco La Camera: I think in coal there are not any more such investments, we see, we have listened also today in gas, I think we have to accept their reality, they need a certain number of years, but you have also listened to this full engagement on renewables, you have listened to the speech of the Vice Prime Minister of Malaysia, Malaysia, it's arena talk there, connectivity, inter-connectivity, regional collaboration, common standards, this is the way forward. [00:07:56] Roland Lim: And you think that with the cost advantage, that becomes compelling once storage, transmission, once grid reliability, that's all factored in? There is no comparison. [00:08:07] Francesco La Camera: What I'm trying to insist is not the fact that renewables are clean, but on the fact that in every part of the world we are insisting on the competitiveness, of the capital of the economy, what makes the economy competitive, the quality of products, the promotional product, but also the cost of the electricity that we need for producing the gas and the lower cost is with renewables. So the competitiveness of the economy of tomorrow, we determine by the capacity of the energy system to provide electrons and molecules at lowest cost and this is renewables. Okay, so there's only one path forward. Francesco, thank you for those insights.