The World Over — Full Episode: Consistory, America 250, US-Iran, Markets & Investing — June 25, 2026

[0:01] Pope Leo's second extraordinary consistory opens this week while the Vatican rejects a request by the bishops of Germany for late preaching at mass. [0:10] The papal posse, Father Gerald Murray and Robert Royal, are here within hours. [0:15] And as Independence Day approaches, America 250 celebrations are in full swing. [0:21] Chief of Protocol for the United States, Ambassador Monica Crowley, is here with an update. [0:26] A preliminary peace deal with Iran has been struck, but will it stick? [0:30] Dr. Waleed Farris is here with analysis of this and more. [0:34] Finally, the chaotic U.S. economy remains a top concern in the midterm election year. [0:39] How healthy are the markets? [0:41] Financial expert and senior vice president of Ave Maria Mutual Funds, Bob Schwartz, is here to tell us. [0:47] The World Over begins right now. [1:12] Now, Raymond Arroyo. [1:13] A warm welcome to all of you joining us in the United States and the World Over as we celebrate our 30th year. [1:19] We have a great show for you tonight. [1:20] If you'd like to comment, go to X. I'm at Raymond Arroyo. [1:23] And always at Arroyo Grande's show on YouTube. [1:27] The extraordinary consistory of cardinals opens tomorrow in Rome with three major voices conspicuously absent. [1:34] And the Vatican shuts down the German bishops' request to allow laypeople to preach at mass. [1:40] Here with analysis of these stories and more of the papal posse, editor-in-chief of thecatholicthing.org, [1:44] Robert Royal, right here in studio, and canon lawyer and priest of the Archdiocese of New York, [1:50] Fr. Gerald Murray, who's at home. [1:52] This week, the Vatican formally rejected a request from the German bishops for permission to allow laymen and women [2:00] to preach homilies during Sunday mass. [2:03] Cardinal Arthur Roach, prefect of the dicastery for divine worship, cited redemptiones sacramentum. [2:08] The homily is reserved to priests and deacons, it says. [2:13] Case closed. [2:14] A German theologian is calling Roach's reasoning preconciliar. [2:18] Ironic, since Cardinal Roach is hardly a traditionalist and an architect of Traditiones Custodes. [2:24] Father, what do you make of the Vatican's ruling here and that accusation? [2:28] No, it's a good ruling because it's by the nature of priestly preaching at the sacred liturgy, [2:37] that it is a function of sacred orders that you now expound on the meaning of scriptures as a priest, [2:43] as someone who not only offers sacrifice but also teaches the flock. [2:48] As regards to being conciliar, Jesus Christ and the apostles when we were before the Second Vatican Council. [2:55] So we can't just discount something by saying, well, since it happened before Vatican II, it's no longer legitimate. [3:01] In fact, that's just a political view of the way the church exists. [3:05] The church exists as the conveyor of Christ's revelation. [3:09] And one of the things revealed by Christ is that there's a sacred priesthood in the church, [3:13] and the priesthood offers sacrifice and teaches the faithful. [3:17] Bob, the German bishops have been pushing this since 1970. [3:21] They were granted temporary permission in 1973, in 1977. [3:25] Now, I guess the door is shut. [3:28] Is this ruling likely to hold, or will the German bishops simply continue the practice like altar girls? [3:34] Yeah, I think what we've seen is that they just go their own merry way. [3:37] They don't pay much attention to Rome, although they don't want an absolute rupture, I think. [3:42] What's curious about this is, you know, this is part of, I think, their larger strategy. [3:48] We've talked about this before. [3:49] There's an irony that Vatican II wanted to de-clericalize the church. [3:54] And here we are having lay people actually taking on clerical roles, which is kind of the reverse of what we thought. [4:01] Lay people were supposed to take the faith into the world, and instead something different is happening. [4:05] And I also get the impression that this was kind of the camel's nose under the tent. [4:10] So you start with, you know, having lay women and lay men preaching, and then, you know, like having altar girls and like having extraordinary ministers of the Eucharist, [4:19] suddenly people are starting to, you know, enter the sanctuary at mass. [4:24] And so it makes it, it just gives that impression that we're moving in a direction that everybody eventually is going to be authoritative. [4:30] Yeah, I liked it before when they had the door and they closed you off with the altar rail. [4:35] That was much better. [4:36] Made things very clear. [4:37] You knew where you stood and everybody else did. [4:39] The College of Cardinals convenes June 26th for Pope Leo's second extraordinary consistory. [4:46] The agenda consists of international situation around the world, [4:51] magnifica humanitas, the Pope's AI encyclical, and the Synod. [4:56] Three prominent cardinals will not be there. [4:58] There are Cardinal Joseph Zen of Hong Kong, Peter Erdo of Hungary, and Willem Icke of the Netherlands, all sidelined by health. [5:06] Bob, these are not pretty progressive cardinals. [5:08] I mean, these are, you know, their absence will be felt considering, you know, you've got Gregg and Fernandez running the place. [5:15] Yeah. [5:15] Well, you know, I really wish that we also had some greater substance about what was going to be discussed. [5:22] Because initially we thought we were going to be talking about liturgy, we thought we were going to be talking about the question of just war. [5:28] And those seem to have been taken off the table so that maybe there's going to be further reflection before they're actually going to be addressed. [5:35] And, you know, the Pope has been, in his Wednesday audiences, has been talking about liturgy. [5:39] And he's been talking about it in a general way, but he hasn't gotten down to those things that are in the actual documents of Vatican II about what liturgy should be. [5:48] So I think that has been kind of moved away. [5:50] And we also see that there's a great controlling of what kind of conversations are going to take place. [5:55] I think that probably the greatest advantage of bringing the Cardinals together is going to be those private conversations. [6:02] Because what we're seeing in public just seems to be kind of almost a fear of letting things get too much out of hand at this point. [6:08] Maybe that's why also the subject matter has been respected. [6:11] Yeah. [6:11] Father, this agenda, it's rather interesting. [6:16] We've spent a whole segment just on that. [6:17] But I'm going to read you this. [6:19] The agenda on this two-day affair is in what, these are the questions they're entertaining, in what kind of world are we called to proclaim the gospel, the culture of power and the civilization of love, building in the good, the work sites of our time, and the path of implementing the synod. [6:39] Here's an interesting thing. [6:41] I want you to reflect on those topics, Father. [6:43] But then Cardinal Mario Greco, who's the synod's secretary, admitted this week that the synodal process has not yet achieved its goal. [6:52] He says he'll only be satisfied when he sees a broad missionary movement, Father. [6:57] I mean, that's remarkable after years of this process. [7:02] Well, I think what we've gone from when the synod was a meeting of bishops convened by the pope to talk about a specific topic, [7:08] such as evangelization, Catholic education, the priesthood, priestly formation, the family. [7:16] You know, we had great synods on all those subjects under John Paul II. [7:19] And now we just have this, like, continual conversation about everything under the sun. [7:25] I mean, to talk about how do we, you know, deal in the modern world, I mean, you could spend the rest of your life expatiating about how the church should react to modern situations. [7:35] It is a shame that the liturgy was taken off the agenda that was supposed to be discussed back in January at the extraordinary consistory, rather. [7:45] Then it was, didn't put on this agenda. [7:48] We were going to talk about, they were going to talk about capital punishment, or excuse me, about just war. [7:52] That's now seemingly off the table. [7:55] So, I wish this synod, this consistory reflected earlier practice under John Paul II, which is that each bishop got to make their intervention. [8:05] And then they didn't have to go into small groups and then have kind of like filters about what would be discussed. [8:11] So, but it'll be interesting. [8:12] I think Bob's point is right. [8:13] What goes on behind the scenes, the individual conversations, the dynamic that develops, [8:18] that's going to be more indicative of where the College of Cardinals stands, I think, rather than how do they dot I's and T's about the official agenda. [8:27] But, you know, Greg's saying that the synodal process has not yet achieved its goal. [8:32] I think every time we see one of these synodal meetings, it is achieving its goal, which is the reorchestration and re-situation of how decisions are made in the church. [8:42] Yeah, I don't even know if it's that clear, because it seems to me, you know, we've talked and talked and talked about, [8:49] no one seems to know what synodality is other than talking with one another, with that, of course. [8:55] No, we're being synodal here. [8:56] This should be a synodal. [8:57] No, I think the shocking thing about his statement for me was my impression has been all this time that this synodal discussion has been very much internally organized. [9:07] It doesn't seem to have been outward facing at all. [9:09] They keep talking about being outward facing and evangelizing. [9:12] And, of course, if that were to come about, that would be a great consummation of this whole process. [9:17] But you're right. [9:18] I think what it talks about more than anything else is somehow the structuring of relations with one another, decisions, who has power. [9:27] And that very much seems up in the air to me. [9:30] Speaking of up in the air, Cardinal Robert McElroy, Archbishop of Washington last week, celebrated Mass at Georgetown University for Father James Martin's LGBT Outreach Ministry. [9:42] In his homily, he pointed to two developments under Pope Leo that he called seeds of hope. [9:47] First, Leo's April remark that church unity should, quote, not revolve around sexual matters and that issues like justice and immigration should take priority. [9:56] Second, the second or rather the synodal study report, Group 9, that report that included testimony from two civilly married gay Catholics and argues that concrete situations in which people find themselves are constitutive dimensions of how doctrine should be formed. [10:16] Father, what is Cardinal McElroy talking about when he says, I mean, is this a development of doctrine or what else is, what's going on here? [10:27] No, what's going on here is that there's a continual pressure and a starter when Pope Francis said, [10:33] who am I to judge when asked about a certain priest who worked in the Vatican who was accused of being an active homosexual. [10:39] And when he said that, everybody took it as a signal that the church is no longer opposed now to homosexual lifestyle. [10:46] And that, of course, is not true because the homosexual lifestyle involves abominable acts of immorality that are castigated in the Bible and that certainly are not conformable to the human nature and the natural law. [10:59] But the propaganda continues. And, you know, talking about sexual morality is not really the most important topic. [11:08] Well, it's important to a lot of people. That's why you have a whole website devoted to homosexuality and other things. [11:14] And to say that we'd rather not talk about it, we should talk about other issues. [11:18] Well, in the dialogical framework, doesn't it mean you respect the interests of the person who comes to you? [11:24] So when Father Martin does this continual propaganda in favor of the homosexual lifestyle, we shouldn't say, [11:30] well, we're not going to answer it because there are more important topics. [11:33] Now, as regards to study report number nine, that was a disgrace. That report never should have been issued. [11:39] It contains an appendix with testimonies from two different so-called couples who are civilly married. [11:45] And I remind you, if a Catholic man gets a civil marriage with another man, he's rejecting Catholic teaching about the nature of marriage. [11:53] If he imagines that he has a husband, he's denying the created order. Men don't have husbands. [11:59] It was an abomination for the Vatican to publish a document in which that claim is made. [12:04] So Cardinal McElroy is just, I think, trying to, you know, roll this steamroller down the road further, [12:10] saying that it's inevitable that the church is going to accept the homosexual lifestyle. [12:14] It never will. It never can. [12:16] Because the Catholic Church teaches God's revelation, not the fads of trendy people who think that sin no longer exists. [12:24] We continue to move closer to those July 1st Episcopal consecrations by the Society of St. Pius X. [12:33] The Society issued an open letter to Pope Leo and the entire College of Cardinals this week. [12:39] It includes a 28-page profession of faith in which they say they cannot remain indifferent to where the church is being driven, [12:47] and they hope the document will serve as a basis of frank discussion. [12:51] Bob, they also, in that document, reaffirm their allegiance to Pope Leo, [12:57] and they say, we respect his authority. [13:00] Your thoughts on where this is, assuming these consegrations go forward? [13:06] Well, look, the whole question about is, who has the authority then to declare a crisis? [13:11] Because I can declare a crisis about homosexuality, [13:14] but, I mean, I have no authority to implement that in the church. [13:18] And so, yes, there are many things that they talk about that I think it would be right to re-examine. [13:24] There are many problems today in the church, [13:25] many, I think, just failures in teaching what the faith teaches in current circumstances. [13:33] But if one group is allowed to say that we can define that there's a crisis that allows us [13:37] to ignore the authority of the Pope with regard to who gets appointed as a bishop, [13:42] well, then any other people can do this, too. [13:45] The Chinese can say, well, you know, there's a crisis here in China, [13:47] so we need to have pro-communist Chinese bishops here [13:51] instead of the bishops that the bishop of Rome would like to. [13:54] Well, they've done that. [13:55] That's a bad example. [13:56] No, it's a great example, because it shows the danger that there is here. [14:00] I mean, the Protestant Reformation was about this, too, [14:03] that authority no longer existed in the church that Christ had created, [14:07] but that in some particular reading of the New Testament. [14:12] So, look, this is, I mean, it's awful that it's come down to this, [14:15] but when this happens, I think we're going to see a tremendously difficult fallout for the church. [14:21] Father, there are bishops like Bishop Athanasius Schneider, who we had on here a few weeks ago, [14:26] that surprised me. [14:28] He says the Pope should extend another olive branch toward SSPX, [14:33] that these are faithful Catholics, [14:35] and that he should bend over backwards and keep extending mercy to them, [14:39] as he does to other groups throughout the church and the world, [14:42] even those outside of the faith. [14:43] Your thoughts on that, and what might be the fallout of these consecrations? [14:49] Well, I disagree with Bishop Schneider. [14:51] I respect him, but true mercy is the truth, [14:54] and the truth is you cannot be a traditional faithful Catholic and disobey the Pope [14:58] when he directly orders you not to do something as grave as to consecrate or ordain a bishop. [15:05] The bishops are ordained in order to rule in the church. [15:11] Now, the people who are in the Society of Pius X claim, [15:14] well, we're only ordaining bishops so they can sanctify, [15:16] meaning conduct confirmations and ordinations, [15:19] not rule, govern, and teach in the name of the church, [15:23] but that's all just a smokescreen. [15:26] These bishops exercise pastoral authority over a group of people [15:29] who voluntarily attend masses with the society. [15:32] They have priests who answer to them, et cetera. [15:35] No, the tragedy here is that we have a group that Archbishop Lefebvre founded. [15:41] Lefebvre signed a deal back in 1988, and then he reneged on the deal, [15:45] and ever since there's been a separatist spirit, [15:48] which is that the society will tell the Holy See when they're ready, [15:51] when the society is ready to submit to papal authority. [15:54] It doesn't work in the church that way. [15:56] Everyone is subject to papal authority because Christ named Peter [16:00] the visible head of the church on earth, [16:02] and Peter's successors enjoy the authority that Christ gave to St. Peter. [16:06] They're the vicar of Christ. [16:08] So to say we're subject to the Pope and we respect his office, [16:11] meanwhile, on a matter of gravity, [16:13] we're going to disobey him right to his face, [16:16] and the Pope has spoken about this a number of times. [16:18] He's very hurt that this is going to happen. [16:21] They, unfortunately, are stubborn about it, [16:23] and I use that word because it's a spiritual category. [16:26] Spiritual resistance to sacred authority is not a virtue. [16:32] It's something that has to be done away with. [16:34] If there's a crisis in the church, [16:36] and there are many crises in the church, deal with it. [16:39] The ordaining bishops on July 1st [16:42] is not going to stop the crisis in the church. [16:44] It is not a necessary remedy, [16:46] and there should be submission to the Holy See on this. [16:49] Bob, any final words on this before we go? [16:51] No, I think I'm going to leave it [16:54] with the authority of the canon lawyer. [16:56] Okay, we'll defer to our canon lawyer on the panel. [16:59] Father Bob, thank you so much for being here, [17:01] and you can check out this week's Prayerful Posse [17:04] over on Arroyo Grande. [17:06] We delve into some of these issues in a bit more depth. [17:10] Robert Royal, Father Gerald Murray, [17:12] thank you both for being here. [17:14] She serves as chief of protocol for the United States, [17:19] the person responsible for the ceremonial face [17:22] America presents to the world. [17:24] But right now, she's also the primary public voice [17:27] for America 250, [17:29] a once-in-a-lifetime commemoration [17:31] of our nation's 250th birthday. [17:34] Please welcome Ambassador Monica Crowley to the show. [17:37] Monica, thank you for being here. [17:39] I was just out on the Mall. [17:41] I mean, this great American state fair [17:43] is underway on the National Mall. [17:45] Tell us what people can expect. [17:47] Give folks an overview of what this is [17:49] and why launch it in the nation's capital. [17:54] Well, it's great to be with you, Raymond. [17:55] Thank you so much for having me. [17:57] And, yes, you know, the president asked me [17:59] to be his administration's representative [18:01] to all of the major U.S.-hosted events during his term, [18:05] of course, including Freedom 250. [18:07] And what we decided over the last year and a half [18:10] is that the president really wanted [18:12] to deliver to the American people [18:15] the greatest and momentous celebration [18:18] in our nation's history. [18:19] And so for the last year and a half, [18:20] that's exactly what we have put together. [18:23] And now, of course, it's all culminating [18:24] in these two weeks around July 4th. [18:28] So we have the Great American State Fair, [18:30] which launched this week on the National Mall, [18:33] and it will run for 16 days through July 10th. [18:36] You can find all information at freedom250.org. [18:39] Great American State Fair is celebrating all 56 states [18:43] and territories with their own pavilions, [18:46] highlighting everything that makes every state [18:49] and our total republic so unique. [18:52] It's got a Ferris wheel, musical performances, rodeos, [18:56] all the things of a great World's Fair [18:58] right here in our nation's capital. [19:00] And then, of course, on July 4th, Raymond, [19:02] we are going to celebrate American exceptionalism, [19:05] our exceptional history, our God-given freedoms, [19:09] and, of course, our love of country. [19:11] And what we decided is that we wanted [19:13] to really bring the country together [19:15] with these celebrations of America's 250th birthday. [19:19] We all know about the divisions in this country, [19:21] and they are very serious. [19:23] But this birthday actually gives us a chance [19:25] to unite around a shared sense of patriotism [19:28] and a renewed sense of civic pride. [19:30] Yeah, and President Trump helped kick off these festivities, [19:34] and they will run for a number of weeks, [19:36] as only he can. [19:37] Watch. [19:38] Ten days from now, our country will celebrate [19:41] one of the most monumental milestones in human history. [19:45] We will mark 250 years of glorious American freedom. [19:51] In 1776, our founding fathers met in Philadelphia [19:55] and changed the world forever and ever [19:58] with a thing called the Declaration of Independence. [20:03] They proclaim the eternal truth [20:09] that we are endowed by our Creator [20:11] with the rights to life, liberty, [20:14] and the pursuit of happiness. [20:16] We all made, and you know that, [20:19] free and equal by the hand of Almighty God. [20:23] Those timeless American principles [20:29] did not just win a revolution, [20:31] but they built us into the greatest, strongest, [20:35] and most exceptional nation the world has ever known. [20:40] There has never been anything [20:42] like the United States of America, [20:44] and together we are making it bigger and better [20:48] and stronger and far more exceptional [20:51] than ever before. [20:54] Monica, your thoughts on why the president [20:57] thought it so important [20:59] that not only to commemorate this moment, [21:02] but to kick it off himself. [21:06] Well, as we all know, [21:08] President Trump truly loves [21:09] the United States of America. [21:11] He deeply loves America [21:13] and everything that it stands for, [21:15] which is why he's president of the United States, [21:17] to try to restore America [21:19] to its foundational principles [21:21] and restore a sense of American greatness. [21:23] So while he jokes that he did bring [21:26] the FIFA World Cup in his first term [21:28] to the United States, [21:29] and he brought the Olympic Games coming in 2028 [21:32] in his first term, [21:33] he also likes to joke [21:34] that he brought America's 250 [21:35] during his second term as well. [21:38] He likes to take the credit for that. [21:40] He has such a fundamental understanding [21:43] of what this country means [21:45] to the American people, [21:46] all of the enormous sacrifices [21:48] of those generations [21:50] who have come before us [21:51] to deliver these kinds of freedoms [21:54] that are unique in the world [21:56] and, of course, our exceptional history, [21:58] that he wanted to honor our country [22:00] with the greatest celebration [22:02] the world has ever seen. [22:04] And, of course, domestically, [22:06] we had talked about [22:06] what's happening in Washington, D.C. [22:08] New York City will also be hosting [22:10] a massive celebration [22:12] with a parade of tall ships [22:13] in New York Harbor [22:14] going up the Hudson River on July 4th. [22:16] And every state is throwing its own party [22:19] and, of course, every community as well. [22:21] So, freedom250.org, [22:23] you can find out all the details. [22:25] But this president is so deeply invested [22:27] in America, [22:29] which is why he is in office [22:31] and why he's put everything on the line [22:33] to serve this country and bring it back. [22:35] And that's why he wanted America's special birthday [22:38] to really highlight our exceptionalism, [22:41] highlight the Declaration, [22:43] the Constitution, [22:44] which, of course, came later [22:45] after the revolution, [22:46] to try to restore a sense of understanding [22:49] among the American people [22:50] of what this country was really founded on, [22:53] its beliefs, [22:54] and what made it a superpower, [22:57] both a great power [22:58] and also a good power [22:59] in only 250 years. [23:02] That exceptionalism [23:03] and that sense of patriotism [23:05] is such a gift. [23:07] And we want to make sure [23:08] that every American going forward [23:10] has that gift in their heart. [23:11] You know, I was out on the mall today. [23:13] I went to the Great American State Fair. [23:18] And to get on that Ferris wheel [23:19] and to overlook the entire vista, [23:22] and I thought, [23:22] this is one of the rare times [23:24] that anybody, [23:25] particularly a family together, [23:27] will be able to go up [23:28] and see that vista [23:30] from the middle of the mall, [23:32] you know, [23:32] all the way down [23:33] to the Washington Monument, [23:34] really all the way to Lee's House [23:35] in Arlington Cemetery [23:36] and the Capitol on the other side. [23:38] I mean, [23:39] it's a spectacular thing [23:40] for families to do. [23:41] And then they can literally walk [23:43] just a block away [23:46] and see the actual documents [23:48] of our founding, [23:49] the Declaration [23:50] and the Constitution [23:51] and the Magna Carta, [23:53] all of that [23:53] in the National Archives. [23:56] It's a feast [23:57] in some ways for families. [24:00] Oh, absolutely. [24:01] I mean, [24:01] this is going to be [24:02] these two weeks [24:03] in our now sparkling [24:04] and safe [24:05] Capitol City [24:07] here in Washington, D.C., [24:08] thanks to President Trump. [24:09] It will attract people [24:12] from all 50 states, [24:13] all six territories [24:14] and really around the world [24:16] to celebrate America. [24:17] And what a joy [24:18] that is going to be [24:19] to have everybody here. [24:21] It is, [24:22] Washington is incredibly safe. [24:25] We have been working [24:25] with DHS, [24:27] Department of Homeland Security, [24:28] U.S. Secret Service, [24:30] the Park Police, [24:31] the Interior Department, [24:32] Washington, D.C. Police. [24:34] So know that when you come here, [24:36] you will be safe [24:36] and have the greatest experience. [24:38] You're exactly right. [24:39] The National Archives [24:40] are right down the street. [24:42] You can go there [24:42] and see her founding documents [24:44] in person. [24:45] I encourage everybody [24:46] to do that [24:46] while they're here [24:47] and really read the words [24:49] and understand [24:50] our nation's foundations [24:52] and why we are here [24:53] and what makes America [24:55] so worth fighting for [24:57] and so worth celebrating. [24:59] Monica, [24:59] I have to ask you, [25:00] you are the chief of protocol [25:02] for the United States. [25:04] Tell the audience, [25:05] A, what that means, [25:07] and then what is it like? [25:08] I mean, I watch you. [25:09] I don't know [25:09] how you keep the schedule. [25:11] I mean, Trump exhausts me [25:12] everywhere he goes [25:13] because, you know, [25:14] he's up watching a UFC fight [25:16] till, I don't know, midnight. [25:18] And then at 3 a.m., [25:20] he's getting on a plane [25:21] to go on an international trip [25:22] and you went on that trip. [25:24] What is it like [25:25] accompanying this president [25:26] who never sleeps? [25:28] I mean, [25:28] I remember you behind Xi [25:29] and he when we were meeting. [25:31] To get that vantage point [25:33] on these historical moments [25:35] means what to you? [25:37] Well, it means the world [25:39] and it's such a great honor [25:40] and a blessing for me [25:41] to serve my country, [25:43] the country I love so deeply, [25:45] and to serve this president [25:47] who really has put everything [25:48] on the line [25:49] to save the United States [25:51] of America. [25:52] Such an honor [25:52] and a joy to me, [25:53] for me to be part of it, [25:55] even when I'm getting no sleep. [25:56] And yes, [25:56] I was on that flight, [25:58] which left JBA [25:59] at 3.30 in the morning [26:00] en route to France [26:01] for the G7. [26:03] And I tell everybody [26:04] on the plane, [26:05] guys, [26:06] the first hour of this flight [26:07] is not safe. [26:08] Do not change your clothes. [26:10] Do not go to sleep [26:11] because he will walk the plane [26:13] and talk to all of us. [26:14] But what a pleasure [26:15] and what an honor [26:16] that is, too. [26:17] So we happily operate [26:19] on no sleep [26:19] because we know that, [26:21] of course, [26:21] we're serving [26:22] the greatest president [26:22] and his agenda, [26:24] but we're also serving [26:25] the country [26:25] that has given [26:26] all of us so much. [26:27] So no complaints for me. [26:29] This is absolutely [26:30] a blessing [26:31] to do this [26:32] every single day. [26:33] The biggest challenge, [26:34] Raymond, [26:35] is, of course, [26:35] keeping up with the boss. [26:37] Yeah, yeah. [26:37] And they, you know, [26:38] this isn't like [26:39] other administrations [26:40] that said, [26:40] oh, he's, you know, [26:41] he's on it. [26:42] He's there all the time. [26:43] This guy really is. [26:44] I mean, he never sleeps. [26:45] I don't know how he does it. [26:46] And I'm just at home [26:47] watching it [26:48] and I'm exhausted. [26:49] What was it like [26:50] for you to be there [26:51] when that G meeting [26:52] in particular, [26:53] I remember seeing you there [26:54] in those private gardens, [26:56] which no president [26:57] had visited before. [26:59] You fought what [27:00] when you watched [27:00] that interaction [27:01] between the president [27:02] and Xi. [27:04] It's really quite extraordinary. [27:06] And, Raymond, [27:06] as you know, [27:07] I started my career [27:08] working with [27:09] former President [27:10] Richard Nixon [27:11] during the last years [27:12] of his life. [27:13] So I was in Beijing [27:14] and I was at [27:15] these locations [27:16] in the early [27:17] to mid-1990s [27:18] with President Nixon. [27:19] So personally, [27:20] I've been able to see [27:21] up close and personal [27:23] the evolution of China [27:24] and how it went [27:25] from an agrarian society [27:27] to an industrial [27:28] nuclear superpower [27:29] in the space [27:29] of one generation. [27:31] So for me to be there [27:32] with President Trump now [27:34] and watching that interaction [27:35] was really quite extraordinary [27:37] because the relationship, [27:39] the Sino-American relationship [27:41] has evolved [27:42] and China does pose [27:44] a threat, [27:45] as President Trump [27:47] has indicated. [27:48] And so those conversations [27:50] were really fascinating [27:51] to watch, [27:52] to be a part of. [27:54] President Trump [27:55] understands [27:56] the nature [27:57] of the threat [27:58] that China poses [27:59] to the United States [28:00] and to the wider West. [28:02] And there were [28:02] a whole range [28:03] of issues [28:04] that the president [28:05] has publicly talked about [28:06] that he discussed [28:07] with Xi Jinping, [28:08] including, of course, [28:09] trade, [28:10] the Pacific Basin [28:12] and the strategic [28:13] challenges there, [28:14] as well as Chinese influence [28:16] around the world [28:17] and here in the United States. [28:18] And this president [28:19] understands it [28:21] very extensively. [28:22] He's been talking about it [28:24] for decades now. [28:25] And if there's anybody [28:26] who can effectively [28:27] manage that relationship, [28:28] it's Donald J. Trump. [28:30] Final question. [28:31] This has gotten, [28:32] I think, [28:33] undue and ridiculous coverage [28:35] in the wider media. [28:36] The reflecting pool renovation. [28:39] The president, [28:41] and just to put this [28:41] in context, [28:42] I said this the other day [28:43] on television. [28:44] The president [28:45] and this administration [28:47] have restored [28:47] and reopened [28:48] more than 50 memorials, [28:51] fountains, [28:52] all over Washington, D.C. [28:53] The reflecting pool [28:54] is really just one [28:55] of the group [28:56] that he's renovated [28:57] and restored. [28:58] But this one [28:59] got a lot of coverage [29:00] because the lining [29:03] started coming up [29:04] and Algy took over. [29:05] Algy's been there [29:06] since at least [29:07] the Clinton administration [29:08] because I remember [29:09] seeing it out there. [29:13] Well, [29:13] I know that you [29:14] are very familiar [29:15] with your Old Testament, [29:17] Raymond. [29:17] So, you know, [29:18] Algy predated human beings, [29:20] right? [29:20] I mean, [29:21] Algy has been [29:22] part of the globe [29:23] for a very long time. [29:24] So any war [29:25] with Algy [29:26] is going to be [29:26] a very difficult one. [29:28] Thank goodness [29:28] we have a president [29:29] who has taken it on. [29:31] Listen, [29:32] he really believes [29:33] that America, [29:34] as exceptional [29:35] as it is, [29:36] requires a capital city [29:38] that is safe, [29:39] that is secure, [29:40] and that is beautiful. [29:41] And so many [29:42] of our important [29:43] landmarks [29:44] that really celebrate [29:45] American history [29:46] and American greatness [29:48] have fallen [29:49] into grave disrepair. [29:51] And Donald Trump [29:51] relaxes Raymond [29:52] by building. [29:54] And so we've got [29:55] the two new flagpoles [29:57] on the White House grounds. [29:58] We've got a White House [29:59] ballroom being built. [30:01] We've got the reflecting [30:02] pool being restored. [30:03] We've got a triumphal arch [30:04] that he's going to build. [30:06] Do you know that [30:06] Washington, D.C. [30:07] is the only modern [30:09] Western capital [30:10] that does not have [30:11] a triumphal arch? [30:12] And Donald Trump sees it. [30:13] He says, [30:14] we need one [30:14] to help celebrate [30:15] America for our 250th. [30:17] The reflecting pool [30:18] is getting the lion's [30:19] share of attention, [30:21] which obviously [30:22] the left-wing press [30:23] is going to pick on [30:24] anything to attack [30:26] Donald Trump for. [30:27] But my goodness, [30:28] he's doing it [30:28] on schedule, [30:30] under budget, [30:30] and trying to turn [30:32] around decades [30:32] of disrepair [30:33] so that the American [30:35] people and visitors [30:36] from around the world [30:37] can enjoy the reflecting [30:38] pool well into the future. [30:40] Yeah. [30:40] I was just at Union [30:42] Station the other day [30:43] and I'd never seen [30:43] that fountain on, [30:45] frankly, [30:45] since I've been in D.C. [30:47] for years and years [30:48] and years. [30:48] It was beautiful [30:49] to see it restored [30:50] and actually operating. [30:52] What a concept. [30:53] Ambassador Monica Crowley, [30:54] we will leave it there. [30:56] For more information [30:57] on all the celebrations [30:58] marking America's 250th, [31:00] go to freedom250.org. [31:03] Monica, thank you. [31:05] Always a pleasure, Raymond. [31:06] Thank you. [31:07] A preliminary deal [31:10] has been struck [31:11] between the United States [31:12] and Iran [31:13] in what could be [31:14] the first formal accord [31:15] between the two [31:16] since the Islamic Revolution [31:18] of 1979. [31:20] It's a 14-point memorandum [31:22] of understanding. [31:23] 60 days of negotiations [31:25] lie ahead. [31:27] The Strait of Hormuz, [31:28] through which one-fifth [31:29] of the world's oil passes, [31:31] is still tenuous at best. [31:33] $300 billion [31:34] in reconstruction money [31:35] for Iran is on the table [31:37] to help us understand [31:38] all of this [31:39] and what's really happening. [31:40] I'm joined by [31:40] Middle East policy expert, [31:42] author of Iran and U.S. policy, [31:44] Dr. Waleed Fares. [31:46] Waleed, thank you. [31:47] The U.S. and Iran [31:48] have signed [31:49] this memorandum [31:50] of understanding. [31:51] It's a 14-point document [31:53] that will flesh itself out [31:56] as talks continue. [31:58] In plain terms, [31:59] what has actually [32:00] been agreed to here [32:01] and what remains [32:02] unresolved in your mind? [32:05] Well, thank you [32:06] for having me, Raymond. [32:07] Practically speaking [32:08] or historically speaking, [32:10] this is the second agreement [32:12] because we're going to count in [32:13] the Obama-Iran deal, [32:16] which is very different [32:17] and has different actions, [32:19] but actually is [32:20] or was at this point in time [32:21] an agreement, [32:23] an understanding [32:24] between a U.S. administration [32:26] and the Islamic regime [32:27] in Iran. [32:28] However, this one [32:29] is more difficult [32:30] for the following reasons. [32:32] It has two mechanisms. [32:34] One is what would [32:36] the United States do [32:37] for that regime, [32:39] for that government, [32:40] for that country. [32:41] In return, [32:42] what should [32:43] the Islamic regime [32:44] in Iran do in return? [32:45] So at the onset, [32:47] I can see [32:48] that the triggering point [32:49] is the Hormuz strait, [32:52] the Hormuz passage. [32:53] So the regime is saying, [32:54] I will give you freedom [32:56] in that passage [32:58] if you give me [32:59] the following, [33:00] and that's what's [33:00] inside the deal. [33:02] Number one, [33:03] $24 billion. [33:06] What kind of money is that? [33:07] It's not the money [33:08] of the United States. [33:09] This is frozen accounts [33:11] from the time [33:12] of the Shah, [33:13] if you want, [33:14] from the Iranian state [33:15] that are in the tens [33:17] of billions of dollars. [33:18] That's what's also part [33:19] of the $150 billion [33:20] of the Obama era [33:22] and that should be sent [33:23] immediately to the regime. [33:25] That's the appetizer, [33:26] if you want, [33:27] to use it the way they want [33:29] or, of course, [33:30] there will be guidelines for it. [33:31] Second, [33:32] there will be no blockades. [33:33] If there are no blockades now, [33:35] it's for 60 days [33:36] to be multiplied. [33:37] The regime can buy, [33:38] start to buy [33:39] whatever they need [33:40] for their country [33:41] or their regime. [33:42] And three, [33:43] there is also the fact [33:45] of removing the sanctions. [33:47] The sanctions are placed [33:48] on companies [33:50] and countries [33:51] who do business [33:52] with the regime [33:53] and that would be remote. [33:54] And last [33:55] is the $300 billion. [33:57] That's a project. [33:58] That's not money coming. [33:59] That's private money coming in. [34:01] So these are the two obligations [34:03] of the two. [34:04] Iran or the regime [34:05] will have to behave differently. [34:07] That's all what the administration [34:08] is asking them, [34:09] behave differently. [34:11] Is there any accountability [34:12] on how all of that money [34:14] is being used, [34:15] particularly the $300, [34:16] what is it, [34:16] $300 million [34:17] or $300 billion [34:19] in reconstruction [34:20] funds? [34:21] Are there any safeguards [34:23] on that, guarantees? [34:25] Well, Raymond, [34:26] I would start [34:27] with the first $24 billion. [34:29] That would let us know [34:30] what will happen [34:30] with the $300 billion. [34:31] All these amounts [34:33] should be monitored. [34:34] All these amounts [34:34] should have [34:35] a kind of a process [34:37] to make sure [34:38] that they are not used [34:40] to reinforce the regime. [34:41] Unfortunately, [34:42] we don't see [34:43] those mechanisms. [34:44] And, you know, [34:45] possibly the administration [34:46] want to test the regime [34:47] with the $24 billion [34:48] to ensure [34:50] that the regime [34:50] is not going [34:51] to shut the valve. [34:53] The valve [34:53] is the hormones. [34:55] And the president [34:55] said it himself. [34:57] He consulted [34:57] with large [34:58] and multinational corporations [35:00] and they insisted [35:01] they cannot take [35:02] anymore, you know, [35:03] the paralysis [35:04] of trade. [35:05] Now, the president [35:06] may have other cards [35:07] that he will be using, [35:09] but since you ask [35:10] about the $300 billion [35:11] or the $24 billion, [35:13] they should not be used [35:15] in national security. [35:17] They should not be used [35:18] in support of terrorism. [35:20] They should not be used [35:21] also, guess where? [35:22] Here in the United States [35:24] and around the West, [35:25] for example, [35:25] funding radicals here, [35:27] funding those, [35:28] you know, [35:29] globalize the Intifada movement [35:31] because that would be [35:31] the most dangerous [35:32] if they do. [35:33] What are the mechanisms? [35:35] In the view [35:36] of the architects [35:37] of this regime, [35:38] it's behavioral. [35:39] If the regime [35:40] will not, you know, [35:41] shut down the hormones [35:43] one more time, [35:44] second time, [35:44] that would be [35:45] an indication. [35:46] If you ask me personally, [35:47] I think the regime [35:48] is not up for good action [35:50] because they, [35:52] in their own mind, [35:53] they are signing this [35:53] to get the cash now, [35:54] to get the $24 billion. [35:56] What will happen [35:57] after the midterm election, [35:58] what will happen next year [35:59] is something else. [36:01] Yeah. [36:02] The accord explicitly [36:03] defers Iran's nuclear program [36:05] to the, [36:07] after the 60 days of talks, [36:09] what will become [36:10] of that nuclear program. [36:11] Iran's enriching uranium, [36:13] Waleed, [36:13] to 60% purity. [36:16] That's a short walk [36:16] to 90% needed [36:18] to create a weapon. [36:19] What does that [36:20] preliminary agreement [36:22] actually accomplish [36:23] on that existential question? [36:26] And I thought [36:26] the whole reason [36:27] for this war, [36:28] Iran's nuclear ambitions. [36:32] Yes, I agree with you. [36:33] That's the stated reason. [36:34] But I have a different approach. [36:36] I'm going to come [36:36] from a different angle. [36:37] If you want [36:39] by order of threats, [36:40] if you look at the map, [36:41] if you look at [36:42] what President Trump himself [36:43] has ordered, [36:44] the destruction [36:45] of the three [36:46] major nuclear sites, [36:48] what is remaining [36:49] is that so-called [36:50] powder, [36:51] nuclear powder, [36:53] that we in the West [36:54] and the United States [36:55] wants to get them, [36:55] get them to us. [36:57] So they are not tempted. [36:58] The regime is not tempted. [36:59] But practically speaking, [37:01] I don't think [37:02] that this powder [37:02] will allow them [37:03] to produce any weapon [37:04] between now and five years [37:06] or maybe four years [37:07] from now. [37:08] What the regime is doing [37:09] is telling that [37:10] I don't want to give you [37:11] my word [37:12] that I will not rebuild. [37:14] It's really, [37:14] you know, [37:15] a question of word [37:16] for them. [37:17] I would say [37:18] that the most important [37:19] matter here [37:19] is the mechanism [37:21] that would put [37:22] the regime [37:23] under threat, [37:25] under pressure, [37:26] so they would not [37:27] do what they've done [37:28] in the past, [37:29] would not buy [37:30] this material. [37:31] And my concern, [37:32] let me add the concern, [37:32] $24 billion, [37:34] they could use [37:35] $1 billion, [37:36] the first billion [37:37] or the second billion [37:38] to start buying. [37:40] Even if they remit [37:41] the material to us, [37:42] they will go [37:43] in the markets [37:43] and buy more [37:44] of this powder [37:45] or could, [37:46] as you and I [37:46] have discussed [37:47] for years, [37:48] possibly buy [37:48] a tactical nuke. [37:49] That's the concern. [37:50] It's really the mechanism. [37:52] What do we have [37:52] inside Iran [37:53] that would force them [37:54] not to do it? [37:56] Well, [37:56] the regime's track record [37:57] is not good on this, [37:59] Waleed. [37:59] I mean, [38:00] Iran violated [38:00] the Obama deal, [38:02] systematically. [38:03] I mean, [38:04] it's IRGC-fired missiles [38:07] at U.S. bases [38:08] in Kuwait [38:09] and at American forces [38:10] throughout this conflict, [38:12] even during what both sides [38:13] called a peace fire. [38:15] There were violations. [38:17] So, [38:17] in your honest assessment, [38:19] does this regime [38:20] have the institutional capacity, [38:23] let alone the political will, [38:25] to honor the terms [38:26] of this agreement? [38:27] The most important, [38:29] and you and I [38:30] have discussed it [38:31] for years, [38:32] is what is [38:32] the strategic intention? [38:34] Have anybody [38:35] from the regime, [38:36] this third level, [38:37] gotten out [38:38] and told their own supporters, [38:40] not the Iranian people, [38:40] their own supporters, [38:42] okay, [38:42] we are finished of jihad, [38:43] we are finished [38:44] of Islamic Republic, [38:45] we're not going [38:46] to go back to the panel. [38:47] Like a Gorbachev [38:48] kind of reformer. [38:50] Zero. [38:50] Because their social media, [38:52] their media, [38:53] their statements, [38:54] even to our face, [38:55] they're saying, [38:56] no, [38:56] we're still where we are [38:57] and we won the war. [38:59] If you read [38:59] the social media statements [39:01] and even the media statement [39:02] by the regime [39:04] in Iran, [39:04] by Hezbollah, [39:06] they are pretending [39:07] that they won the war [39:08] and America had to, [39:09] you know, [39:09] go backward [39:10] and Israel is defeated [39:11] because it can do [39:12] much action in Lebanon. [39:13] So, [39:14] there is something [39:14] that needs to be done [39:15] so that Tehran [39:17] understand that [39:17] they lost the war [39:18] and these are actions [39:20] by our administration [39:21] that give them more chances. [39:23] If you ask me, [39:24] if I can whisper [39:25] in the ear of the president, [39:26] you don't need to do that, [39:27] Mr. President. [39:28] They lost the war. [39:29] The Iranian people was ready. [39:30] They lost 50,000 people. [39:32] We could have finished it. [39:34] But the opinion [39:34] of some experts [39:36] on economic matters [39:37] say let's give them [39:38] one more chance. [39:39] I am waiting [39:40] for those chances. [39:41] I do not believe [39:42] that the regime [39:42] has really reformed. [39:43] Well, I mean, [39:44] this new Ayatollah [39:45] who we, by the way, [39:46] still have not seen [39:47] in public, [39:49] he's already issuing threats [39:51] against the United States. [39:52] So, my question is, [39:53] how much faith [39:54] do you put in [39:55] even the people [39:56] negotiating this deal? [39:58] I mean, [39:58] are they actually [39:59] representative [39:59] of whoever's running [40:01] this regime? [40:03] You mean that [40:03] those negotiating [40:04] on behalf [40:05] of the Islamic Republic? [40:06] Right. [40:07] Well, [40:07] against a lot of opinions, [40:09] I would say [40:09] they know what they're doing. [40:11] They are centralized. [40:12] They are sending the image [40:13] that they are divided. [40:14] They are. [40:14] This is taqiyya. [40:15] What they're doing [40:16] in this process, [40:17] they are lying. [40:18] And there are, [40:19] some of them [40:19] are the commanders [40:20] of the IRGC. [40:21] But guess who's [40:22] the new element [40:23] who is guiding them? [40:24] They're bankers. [40:26] The financial people, [40:27] the people of the money, [40:27] they are telling them [40:28] what to do, [40:29] what to get first. [40:30] That's why I feel [40:31] that what they are demanding, [40:32] this regime is demanding, [40:34] dineros, [40:35] the cash first. [40:35] Once they get the money, [40:36] they could refund it, [40:38] they could refuel it, [40:39] and they can send money [40:41] to Hezbollah, [40:42] Hamas, [40:43] Hashad, [40:44] every... [40:44] And you know, [40:45] Raymond, [40:45] the greatest danger, [40:46] let me say it clearly, [40:47] if they fund radicals [40:49] here at home. [40:50] They have now [40:51] a huge organization. [40:52] They have to globalize [40:53] the Intifada people. [40:54] And we see them [40:55] on the streets. [40:55] We're talking about [40:56] 200,000 minimum. [40:58] If they arm them, [40:59] if they train them, [41:00] if they direct them [41:01] to do urban problems, [41:04] we are in deep trouble. [41:05] So that's why [41:06] giving cash [41:07] to this regime [41:08] is something [41:09] that we have to be [41:09] extremely careful about. [41:11] And last point, [41:12] our real guarantee [41:13] has been, [41:14] continue to be, [41:15] and will be, [41:15] the people of Iran. [41:17] I have always believed [41:18] that by arming them, [41:19] training them, [41:20] directing them, [41:22] that's the shortest [41:22] insurance that we have [41:24] to peace in the region. [41:25] Yeah, [41:26] but that seems [41:27] to have taken [41:27] a back burner [41:28] in these negotiations. [41:30] I mean, [41:30] the people of Iran [41:31] are sort of an afterthought, [41:32] I have to say. [41:33] I was surprised [41:35] by how incidental [41:36] they are to all of this. [41:37] The Strait of Hormuz [41:38] is certainly front and center, [41:39] though. [41:40] And you saw the stories [41:41] where Iran is charging [41:43] what they're calling [41:44] navigational service fees [41:47] to pass through [41:49] the Strait. [41:50] The U.S. Treasury [41:51] called it extortion. [41:54] Negotiations over the Strait's [41:56] long-term operations [41:57] are reportedly proceeding [41:58] on a separate track. [42:01] You've got some [42:01] of the Gulf states [42:02] involved in that, [42:03] Waleed. [42:03] Is the Strait genuinely [42:05] open to international [42:06] commerce now, [42:07] without Iranian interference [42:09] and without tolls? [42:10] As a former international lawyer [42:13] or expert [42:14] in international law, [42:15] especially the sea, [42:16] my father was the lawyer [42:18] of the port of Beirut, [42:19] so we know a lot of that. [42:20] We look at the map. [42:22] Basically, [42:22] there is a part [42:23] of that strait. [42:26] Part of it is for Iran, [42:28] under Iranian sovereignty, [42:29] and the other part [42:29] is under Oman. [42:31] Okay, [42:31] so here's the test. [42:33] The Gulf and us [42:34] instructed ships, [42:36] ships, [42:36] instead of going [42:37] in the middle, [42:37] which should be [42:38] the international passage, [42:40] and nobody can stop [42:41] by law. [42:42] We even instructed them [42:43] to go closer [42:44] to the coast of Oman. [42:46] What did the regime [42:47] do today? [42:48] They threatened Oman, [42:49] threatened the ships, [42:50] even outside [42:51] their territorial war. [42:52] So their intention now [42:54] is not to let us [42:55] open that [42:56] for the international shipment. [42:58] Their intention [42:58] is to make money [42:59] or shoot. [43:02] Yeah, [43:02] well, [43:02] I don't know [43:03] how you can do a deal [43:04] with people [43:04] who are blocking [43:05] all of the commerce [43:06] in the region. [43:07] I don't think [43:10] we can have [43:10] a strategic agreement [43:12] with them. [43:13] That's why the term [43:14] deal is what they like. [43:16] I don't like much [43:16] the term deal. [43:17] I like agreement. [43:18] I like treaty, [43:19] you know, [43:19] international law. [43:20] They are playing [43:21] with the deal [43:22] that we can change [43:23] that deal. [43:23] So that's why [43:24] I go back [43:25] to my original idea. [43:26] Without a change [43:27] inside Iran, [43:28] sorry, [43:29] but I have to say [43:30] I don't see any deal [43:30] working with this [43:31] Islamic, [43:32] Khomeini-Jihadist regime [43:33] on the medium [43:34] and long run. [43:35] Yeah, [43:35] I agree with you. [43:36] And I think [43:37] that's getting lost [43:37] in all of the blow [43:39] by blow of, [43:40] oh, [43:40] we've got a deal [43:41] and look, [43:41] the ambassadors here [43:42] and the photo ops. [43:44] The bottom line [43:45] is who are you [43:46] dealing with? [43:47] And as you said, [43:48] the Iranian people [43:49] are probably [43:50] who we need to deal with, [43:51] but they don't have [43:52] a real representative [43:53] right now. [43:54] And I worry [43:55] that this will [43:57] just continue [43:58] to spiral. [43:59] But Waleed, [43:59] we'll be in touch. [44:00] We'll leave it there [44:01] for the moment. [44:02] Iran and U.S. [44:03] policy by Dr. Waleed Faris, [44:04] which turns the lights [44:06] on for you [44:06] if you haven't read deeply [44:08] about it [44:08] or understand it. [44:10] He makes it so easily [44:11] understandable [44:12] for the reader. [44:13] It's available [44:13] at bookstores [44:14] everywhere and online. [44:16] Thank you, [44:16] Waleed. [44:18] Thank you, [44:18] Raymond. [44:20] And over on [44:21] the Arroyo Grande podcast, [44:23] I sat down last year [44:24] with legendary comedian [44:26] Tom Dreesen. [44:27] Tom passed away [44:29] on June 17th [44:30] at the age of 86. [44:32] And we talked about [44:33] the 14 years [44:34] he spent opening [44:35] for Frank Sinatra, [44:36] what Sinatra taught him [44:37] about showbiz [44:38] and the important role [44:40] of faith and friendship. [44:42] Here's a bit [44:42] of that conversation. [44:44] What did he teach [44:45] Tom Dreesen, [44:47] Sinatra, [44:48] that time with him? [44:49] What did he teach you [44:50] as a man, [44:51] as a performer? [44:53] As a performer, [44:54] that party as much [44:55] as you want, [44:56] but don't throw [44:58] the show away. [44:59] Don't throw the show away. [45:01] That every night [45:01] is a command performance. [45:03] That when you walk [45:03] out on the stage, [45:05] you take command. [45:05] This is, [45:05] these people paid [45:07] to see you [45:07] and they deserve [45:08] the best you got. [45:10] Even if you're not [45:10] feeling good, [45:11] you've got to go [45:12] deep inside [45:12] and come up [45:13] with the best [45:13] you got that night. [45:15] The second thing [45:16] that I'll never forget, [45:18] this is Frank Sinatra, [45:20] arguably the greatest [45:21] career show business [45:22] has ever known. [45:24] The actor, [45:25] Grammys, [45:26] Emmys, [45:27] Oscars, [45:28] never, [45:29] ever, [45:29] ever, [45:30] ever in his life [45:30] was he late. [45:31] Never was he ever late [45:33] for anything, [45:33] any performance, [45:34] anytime you told him [45:35] to be there, [45:36] he was on time. [45:37] If you told him [45:38] to be there, [45:39] if he told you, [45:41] wheels up at 9 o'clock [45:43] and you showed up [45:44] at 9.01, [45:44] you were watching [45:45] the plane go down [45:45] the runway. [45:46] Wow. [45:47] He was always early, [45:48] always on time. [45:49] I learned that [45:50] in the military. [45:51] Fortunately, [45:52] I went four years [45:53] in the military [45:53] before I toured with him [45:55] because he was [45:56] always on time, [45:57] always early. [45:58] So he said to me [45:59] one time, [46:00] if someone tells you [46:01] to be in their office [46:02] at 9 o'clock [46:03] and you show up [46:04] at 9.15, [46:05] you just told them [46:06] your time is far more [46:07] important than their time. [46:08] He said, [46:09] no one's that important, [46:10] Tommy. [46:10] You know, [46:11] respect everybody else's time. [46:13] The full Arroyo Grande [46:14] episode featuring [46:15] the late and great [46:16] Tom Dreesen [46:17] is on YouTube [46:18] at Arroyo Grande Show [46:20] or wherever you get [46:21] your podcasts, [46:22] Spotify, [46:22] Apple, [46:23] iHeart. [46:23] Be sure to subscribe [46:24] so you never miss [46:25] an Arroyo Grande show [46:26] and it's free. [46:28] Go to Arroyo Grande Show [46:29] wherever you get [46:29] your podcasts. [46:30] He's Senior Vice President [46:34] of Ave Maria Mutual Funds, [46:36] the largest family [46:37] of Catholic mutual funds [46:38] in the United States [46:39] and he's here tonight [46:40] to discuss [46:40] the current state [46:41] of the U.S. economy, [46:43] high inflation [46:43] and interest rates [46:44] and morally responsible [46:46] investing. [46:47] Would you welcome [46:47] to the program [46:48] Bob Schwartz. [46:49] Bob, [46:50] thanks for being here. [46:51] I'm used to seeing [46:51] your dad, [46:52] so it's nice to see [46:53] the younger Schwartz [46:54] coming in. [46:55] Thanks so much, Raymond. [46:56] It's great to be here. [46:57] We're replenishing [46:58] the panel here. [46:59] We are here [47:00] in mid-2026 [47:02] with markets [47:03] that have in some ways [47:04] defied gravity. [47:05] I mean, S&P earnings [47:06] are holding up [47:07] at least on paper. [47:09] What does the economic [47:10] picture look like [47:11] to you now [47:12] and what's the general [47:13] health of the U.S. economy? [47:15] The U.S. economy [47:16] is strong. [47:17] Corporate profits [47:18] this year [47:19] will be up 15% [47:20] to 20% [47:21] over last year [47:22] and up another [47:23] 12% to 15% [47:25] in 2027 [47:26] based on early forecasts. [47:28] And as our friend [47:29] Larry Kudlow says, [47:31] corporate profits [47:32] are the mother's milk [47:32] of the stock market [47:33] and the lifeblood [47:34] of the economy. [47:35] To what do you [47:36] attribute that? [47:37] Demand? [47:38] Yeah, demand. [47:40] Surprisingly resilient [47:41] consumer [47:42] and consumer sentiment [47:44] has been positive. [47:47] The market climbs [47:48] a wall of worry. [47:49] It always has. [47:50] Let's talk for a moment [47:52] about market asymmetry. [47:54] Now, this is the idea [47:55] that good news [47:57] in the market [47:57] tends to arrive [47:58] slowly, quietly, [48:00] while bad news [48:01] kind of strikes [48:02] all at once [48:02] and everybody [48:03] goes into a panic. [48:04] How does that pattern [48:05] shape the way [48:06] these markets [48:06] actually behave? [48:08] And what should [48:09] an ordinary investor [48:10] understand about that [48:11] asymmetry? [48:12] That's a great question. [48:13] There's a lot of psychology [48:15] in the market. [48:16] There's a whole area [48:17] of study called [48:18] behavioral finance [48:19] that focuses on psychology. [48:21] Two of the biggest emotions [48:23] that rule investors [48:24] are fear and greed. [48:26] Warren Buffett, [48:27] maybe the greatest investor [48:28] of the last century, [48:31] says be fearful [48:32] when others are greedy [48:33] and greedy [48:34] when others are fearful. [48:36] Interesting. [48:37] So the serious investor [48:38] should be long-term oriented. [48:40] The market, [48:41] out of the last hundred years, [48:42] has been up [48:43] three-quarters of the time, [48:45] 75% of the time, [48:46] the market is up. [48:47] And it's a gradual climb. [48:49] Sometimes it's lumpy. [48:50] There's volatility. [48:51] And the market has averaged [48:52] 10% per year [48:54] over that hundred-year period. [48:55] Talk to me about [48:56] behavioral finance [48:58] for a moment. [48:59] I mean, [48:59] essentially this amounts [49:01] to the way people [49:02] become their worst enemies [49:04] when they're investing. [49:06] You talked about it [49:06] a moment ago. [49:07] What are the most [49:08] common behavioral traps [49:10] that investors fall into [49:13] or that you've seen [49:14] investors fall into? [49:15] Yeah. [49:16] The first one [49:17] is loss aversion. [49:19] People view losses [49:22] twice as negatively [49:23] as they view gains. [49:26] So there's a fear of loss, [49:28] even despite those statistics [49:30] with the market being up [49:31] 75% of the time, [49:32] with the long-term average [49:33] being 10% per year. [49:35] So loss aversion is one. [49:37] Another trap [49:39] is overconfidence. [49:41] People think they have [49:42] a little insight [49:43] into a company [49:44] or a little insight [49:44] into an industry [49:45] and they day trade [49:47] or trade excessively [49:48] based on their [49:50] perceived information [49:52] instead of relying [49:52] on professionals. [49:54] So overconfidence. [49:56] And the third one [49:56] I want to highlight [49:57] I think is most relevant [49:58] right now [49:59] is kind of a herd mentality. [50:01] We've heard a lot of talk [50:03] about the Magnificent Seven [50:04] and the AI trade [50:07] and it gets a lot of press [50:09] on the business news, [50:10] on the Wall Street Journal. [50:12] The top seven companies, [50:14] the Magnificent Seven, [50:15] make up over a third [50:16] of the S&P 500. [50:18] It's unbelievable proportions. [50:21] But there are openings here. [50:22] I mean, there are other companies [50:23] that sadly don't get [50:24] that kind of attention [50:25] that are actually [50:27] foundationally sound, [50:29] have a great plan going forward [50:31] and a real market base. [50:32] Why aren't they getting [50:33] the attention [50:34] and how do you [50:35] take advantage of those [50:36] smaller, less flashy opportunities? [50:40] Yeah, absolutely. [50:41] The market leadership [50:42] has been narrow recently, [50:45] but we think it's broadening. [50:46] It's going to expand [50:47] to those companies [50:48] you're talking about, [50:49] smaller cap, mid-cap companies. [50:51] Didn't you all just, [50:52] you opened, [50:53] Ave Maria has a new fund. [50:53] We did, yes. [50:54] Ave Maria Mutual Funds. [50:55] We launched a new fund [50:57] on May 1st, [50:58] the Ave Maria Undiscovered Fund. [51:01] It was in coincident [51:04] with the 25th anniversary [51:05] of our funds. [51:06] Oh, yeah. [51:06] And that new fund [51:08] will focus on [51:09] these broader opportunities. [51:11] Uh-huh. [51:11] Tell people [51:12] who aren't familiar, [51:13] the cool thing [51:14] about Ave Maria Mutual Funds [51:16] is you actually apply [51:18] Catholic principles [51:19] to the investing [51:21] so that things [51:22] that are immoral [51:23] or lead to morally irresponsible ends [51:27] you don't invest in, [51:29] which still leaves you [51:29] a lot of investment. [51:31] But why has that [51:33] been so successful? [51:34] Some people would look at that [51:35] and go, wait a minute, [51:36] you're taking [51:37] these really lucrative things [51:39] off the table [51:39] if the bottom line [51:41] is what you're after. [51:43] Yeah, it's a great question. [51:44] For Catholic investors [51:45] and other serious [51:46] pro-life investors, [51:47] we offer an alternative [51:48] that allows folks [51:50] to invest [51:51] in accordance [51:51] with their strong [51:53] Catholic pro-life beliefs. [51:54] So we screen out companies [51:56] that are involved [51:57] in abortion, [51:57] pornography, [51:59] embryonic stem cell research, [52:00] and companies [52:01] that contribute [52:02] corporate dollars [52:03] to Planned Parenthood. [52:05] And it eliminates [52:05] only about 5% [52:08] of the Russell 3000. [52:11] Really? [52:11] So it leaves us [52:12] with plenty of good [52:13] investment options, [52:14] plenty of good stocks [52:15] across our family [52:16] of eight mutuals. [52:17] Yeah, because, I mean, [52:18] you're applying your expertise [52:19] as investors [52:20] and investment managers [52:22] and using that, [52:24] you have a board [52:24] that screens out [52:26] those morally aberrant investments. [52:29] And the other thing [52:31] is you use your place, [52:33] your stakeholding, [52:34] in these companies [52:35] to adjust their behavior [52:37] if you can. [52:38] Absolutely. [52:38] Every time we buy a stock, [52:40] we send a letter [52:41] to the CEO of the company [52:42] saying that we bought the stock [52:44] because we think [52:45] it has great financial potential, [52:47] investment potential, [52:48] and that company [52:49] does not violate [52:50] those core Catholic principles. [52:52] and if they choose [52:54] to change their policies [52:56] and violate those principles, [52:57] we'll sell the stock. [52:59] And we've had to notify [53:00] a few companies [53:01] over the course [53:02] of the last 25 years [53:03] when that has happened. [53:05] That they haven't, [53:06] they just weren't responsive [53:08] and so... [53:08] Well, they became an offender [53:11] after we bought the company. [53:13] So we sent the CEO [53:16] a letter saying [53:16] we previously owned, [53:18] you know, [53:19] 200,000 shares of your stock [53:21] and we sold it [53:21] because you acquired a company [53:23] that was doing [53:24] embryonic stem cell research [53:25] or whatever the issue was. [53:26] I got a call the other day, [53:28] a friend of mine [53:28] who's been now really into crypto [53:32] and says, [53:33] look, get in now, [53:35] put a couple of thousand dollars [53:37] into crypto. [53:38] This is going to explode. [53:40] First, explain to people [53:41] what crypto is. [53:42] I mean, my problem with it is [53:44] it's nothing. [53:46] It's a code. [53:47] It's not based on anything. [53:49] So I do worry that, [53:50] like gold, [53:51] I mean, you can, [53:51] gold is an actual tangible asset [53:53] that has value in the society. [53:56] What is crypto predicated on? [53:59] It's a great question [54:00] and I'm not an expert on it, [54:03] but I agree with you. [54:04] I'm very skeptical [54:05] of the whole arena. [54:07] We don't invest in it [54:08] in any of our funds. [54:10] No cryptocurrency in your portfolio. [54:11] No cryptocurrency at all. [54:13] The technology behind it [54:14] probably has relevant applications [54:16] that will withstand [54:17] the rise and fall [54:20] of the hundreds, [54:21] literally hundreds, [54:21] of different cryptocurrencies. [54:24] But, you know, [54:25] we stay away from it. [54:26] It's very speculative. [54:27] It's not an investment [54:28] in our book. [54:29] Yeah. [54:29] What do you look for [54:30] in an investment? [54:31] I mean, I know, you know, [54:32] you all, I know, [54:34] always talk about risk [54:35] and diversification [54:36] and how you can ameliorate [54:37] the risk by diversifying. [54:39] But you would say [54:41] that's too risky [54:42] an investment [54:43] for you and your investors. [54:44] Correct. [54:45] Yeah. [54:45] We look for companies [54:46] that have rising earnings, [54:49] rising dividends, [54:50] low debt, [54:51] companies that have [54:52] staying power, [54:53] pricing power. [54:55] There's a lot of talk [54:56] about inflation, [54:57] companies that are able [54:57] to keep up with inflation, [54:59] grow their earnings, [55:01] and grow their dividends [55:03] over time. [55:03] Those are the types [55:04] of stocks [55:04] that rise in price. [55:06] How did the Schwartz family [55:07] get involved [55:08] in the Ave Maria mutual funds? [55:10] This, Tom Monaghan [55:11] and Bowie Kuhn, [55:12] the former commissioner [55:13] of baseball, [55:14] came to you all [55:15] 25 years ago, I guess. [55:17] Yes. [55:17] And who recommended [55:18] an investment fund, [55:21] that that would be [55:22] a good idea? [55:22] Yeah. [55:23] Tom and Bowie [55:24] came to my dad [55:26] just over 25 years ago [55:28] with the idea. [55:29] And I got to spend [55:31] a lot of time with Bowie, [55:32] the late Bowie Kuhn, [55:34] and I get to spend [55:35] a lot of time with Tom. [55:36] They're two of my heroes, [55:37] along with my dad. [55:39] And they really were [55:40] trailblazers [55:41] in establishing [55:44] the first Ave Maria mutual fund [55:46] in May of 2001. [55:47] And it's been quite a ride [55:49] over these last 25 years. [55:51] What have you all learned [55:52] over those 25 years? [55:53] And what did you [55:54] and your dad [55:55] not expect [55:57] when you began this [55:58] all those years ago? [56:00] Yeah, the plan originally [56:02] was just to launch [56:02] a mutual fund. [56:03] And early on, [56:05] investor demand [56:06] was so strong [56:07] that they wanted funds [56:09] to meet different [56:11] investment objectives. [56:12] So we had a value fund [56:13] originally. [56:14] We added a growth fund [56:15] and a bond fund [56:16] two years later. [56:17] And over the next 22 years, [56:19] we've added five more funds. [56:22] And every day, [56:23] we're meeting new investors [56:24] that are learning [56:25] about our funds [56:26] and grateful [56:27] that we exist. [56:28] Well, it's rare to find [56:30] people who balance [56:33] not only [56:33] the well-intentioned desire [56:36] to have a morally responsible [56:37] investing portfolio, [56:40] but have the expertise [56:42] in the raw data [56:45] and the understanding [56:46] of the marketplace [56:47] that you can make [56:48] that worthwhile [56:49] and really valuable [56:50] to investors [56:51] in not only feeling good [56:53] about what you're doing [56:53] and acting [56:54] in a morally responsible way, [56:56] but bearing the profits [56:58] and the dividends [56:59] from that investment. [57:00] Absolutely. [57:01] And it's critical [57:02] to have a long-term perspective. [57:04] Investing in the stock market [57:05] isn't for everyone. [57:06] Some people are too fearful [57:08] that they'll lose money. [57:09] But if you have [57:10] a long-term investment horizon, [57:12] diversified portfolio [57:13] that's professionally managed, [57:15] it's a great way [57:16] to accumulate wealth. [57:18] Excellent. [57:19] We will leave it there. [57:20] Bob Schwartz, as always. [57:21] And find out more [57:22] about the family [57:23] of Ave Maria Mutual Funds [57:25] at AveMariaFunds.com. [57:27] Thank you, Bob. [57:28] Oh, you're welcome. [57:29] Thank you, Raymond. [57:30] Good to see you. [57:30] That is all the time [57:32] we have for now, [57:32] but be sure to catch us next week. [57:34] Until then, [57:35] we'll be scouting the world over [57:36] for all that is seen [57:37] and unseen. [57:39] On behalf of the staff [57:40] and crew of EWTN News, [57:41] thank you for watching. [57:42] I'm Raymond Arroyo. [57:43] Bye now.