The Stock Market Is Breaking (NEXT WEEK IS ABOUT TO BE CRAZY)

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: The market's just had one of its biggest losing days since July, dropping over 2.9%, and next week could be even more volatile. With the Fed meeting for FOMC next Wednesday, along with the biggest earnings week of the year, the main question coming into this week is tech and AI going to continue selling off, or can we see a potential bounce coming into FOMC? If you guys do enjoy these videos, make sure to drop a like and sub. Let me know in the section below. Make sure to stick around for five trade ideas. That's going to be at the end of the video, and let's get started. So first things first, want to give you guys an updated P&L for the month of October. Still keeping that green streak alive, the past two weeks definitely have been slower. Ended up making $12,000 last week. The week prior, $4,000, putting me up roughly around $54,000 on the month. We'll see how well we can close out the month with, of course, major earnings and a bunch of other things to talk about. With that being said, let's talk about kind of the overall bearing issue of the market right now, which is tech is continuing to sell off. As you can see, we have a bunch of major names. NVIDIA, Google's down, EVGO, and a bunch of the other semiconductors have been down for the past month. Tesla, SpaceX even. If we're taking a look at a couple of other names, recently, Land Research, that one had earnings down 25% month to date. So a lot of tickers are down 20% to 30%. Are we going to look to buy the dip? Something like Meta. Meta had a really solid setup on the higher timeframes, bullish earnings. That one was up 8% in the after hours, only to turn negative and down 20% off the high. So we'll talk about a bunch of these names here. If we're looking at the QQQ in itself, off the all-time highs, we're down roughly 8%. So the question is, is it time to buy the dip? We're down roughly 8% from our all-time highs. We're coming into a major level support here on the higher timeframes. So are we going to look to buy the dip or are we going to continue to sell off here? Other news factors, oil continues to move higher with, of course, the ongoing war tensions in the Middle East. And of course, this week, we do have the Fed decision that's going to come out on Wednesday. This month, the markets are not pricing in any rate cuts. So the main thing is going to be the guidance that we have. That's going to be at 2.30 PM Eastern Standard Time. So as we take a look at the economic calendar here, there are a couple of things to talk about coming into next week. Consumer confidence, that's going to be on Tuesday at 10 AM. The main thing here is going to be the FOMC statement. So we have the FOMC statement that's going to be at 2 PM. And then the main thing this week is going to be the press conference at 2.30 PM. The next day, we have advanced GDP along with the core PC price index, along with the unemployment. And then on Friday, we have the unemployment cost index, which is going to be at 8.30. So action-packed this week with, of course, FOMC. If we do take a look at the earnings calendar, look at how many things are coming out this week. On Tuesday, before the market opens, we have SoFi. This one's been beating down quite a bit. UPS, Coca-Cola. After close, SK Hynix, Robinhood, STX, another memory ticker, Visa. On Wednesday, we have a couple of the Meg 7s. Microsoft, Alphabet, ServiceNow, another software name that's actually been pushing up nicely. And then on Thursday, INTC, Amazon, another memory ticker, SNDK. And then we have Roblox, Reddit, as you can see, a bunch of other tickers, Coinbase, MSTR reporting later into the week. So this week, fully action-packed with earnings, with FOMC. It's going to be a very volatile week here in the markets. With that being said, let's talk about some of the notable trades that we ended up taking last week. There's a couple of things that we ended up trading. Of course, make sure to follow the X for an updated game plan for all my trade recaps and what I look for on a more consistent basis. But the main trades this week, we ended up taking an NVIDIA previous day low retest targeting our last week's lows, which was a nice trade. We ended up taking SpaceX the day after earnings, which was a nice five-minute range high retest. Nothing crazy here in the markets. A lot of the trades that we ended up taking this week only lasted roughly five to ten minutes. A lot of TP1, TP2s, majority off, and then the rest kind of stopping or break even. So with that being said, let's head on to the charts. Of course, we're going to go over my five watches and some fresh new trade ideas for you guys at the end of the video. So make sure you guys stick around. So first things first, let's kick it off here on the weekly timeframe on SPY. And let's look at this on a candle-by-candle basis. So of course, last week was the week that we ended up breaking structure, at least in terms of a bar-by-bar account. Last week, we ended up putting in an upper wick, and we ended up closing bearish here on the week. So in terms of the candle formation, we did end up closing the week bearish. And in terms of location, I would actually say we're still technically bullish, right? SPY is still above our moving averages. We're still building up higher lows on the weekly timeframe. So nothing to be cautious of as of yet until we can break underneath the 760. That's when I'd be a lot more cautious on the SPY. Of course, Q's is a little bit of a different story here. So in terms of the SPY, what we're going to keep an eye out for next week, some of the levels that we have marked up, is our 760. So short-term-wise, 760, let's see if this level can hold for potential continuation. If we do break underneath this, this is one of our daily higher low levels. We definitely could see a little bit of a retracement back down into our 750 here on the higher timeframe. So we'll keep an eye on the reaction early next week. In terms of the QQQ, let's take a look at this. So the Q's number one is a very key inflection point. In terms of the week by week, right, we ended up opening up, pushing higher, and then closing bearish for the week. So candle formation, we basically close underneath our last week's low. So it is bearish. In terms of market structure, we are at right at our support level here for the Q's. So if you go into the daily chart, you can see right at support here, which is our 700. This is our daily gap. This is one of the areas we bounced from earlier in September. And now you can see we're all the way back down at support. So for the Q's coming into next week, let's see if this area can be used as support for a short-term bounce back towards the upside. If we can do that, we can see a short-term relief bounce here. Of course, if we break underneath the 700, my next level is here on the higher timeframe, 680, all the way down into 660. But that is definitely a little bit further away. Of course, that would also be a 13% retracement off that all-time highs. Right now with us pulling back roughly 8%, this is a good area where we definitely could see it bounce back, at least up into the moving averages here on the QQQ. In terms of the SMH, this one also continued to show weakness here on the week-by-week basis. We did close bearish here on the week, so bearish. In terms of structure, we also broke underneath our weekly higher low here as well. So definitely a lot weaker here in the markets. In terms of the daily chart, we broke underneath major support levels. We rejected here off our 540. In terms of our next support, technically it's all the way back down into our 500, which is kind of the area that we're at currently. I would like to see a potential kind of double bottom here on the weekly chart, but we're definitely a little bit weaker here in terms of the weekly timeframe. We also kind of broke outside or broke underneath this downtrend. So definitely have to be cautious. We're also breaking underneath the moving averages, of course, on the weekly chart. So that's something to keep in mind here on semis. That's why I've been so weak on the semiconductors and also memory here, as you'll see. But in terms of the key levels, short-term wise, let's keep an eye on this 540 along with our higher timeframe key levels, which is our 510. In terms of DRAM, if we go into the weekly chart, we are back at support. So this one ended up actually closing bearish, but we closed above our last week's lows. So DRAM, obviously we are in bearish in terms of market structure, but last week we consolidated a little bit more here, kind of right at our support level. So DRAM buyers are stepping in. Let's see if we can potentially find a bottom here, offer 45 for potential mean reversion. We'll keep an eye on this 45 here on the daily chart. Of course we get underneath it. That would not be a good sign for a lot of the semiconductors. In terms of the weekly charts, I'll go briefly over the IWM, this one right at our support levels here in terms of the higher timeframes. Gold right at support here, which is our 360. If we take a look at USO here, this one is spiking. So obviously that's not helping out equities, especially with oil rising here and the tensions in the Middle East. And of course, if we take a look at the VIX, the VIX has been spiking as of recent back up into 20. This is kind of our highest point that we've had since June of earlier this year. If the VIX continues to spike, which we probably will get another VIX spike with next week with earnings and with FOMC as well. So keep an eye out on elevated volatility here in the markets. Okay. In terms of some of the tech names, which we'll briefly go over a lot of these ones, there's nothing really much to talk about in terms of the higher timeframes. The major indices is something to keep an eye out for a lot more. But Tesla, we had earnings last week. We just kind of came up into our resistance level, a little bit of rejection here, and we're kind of still ranging in between these key levels. So not really too much to talk about it in terms of Tesla. Of course, if you want to see continuations above our 390. AMD, this one a little bit weaker. You can see we've put in three red weeks in a row now on AMD after hitting our all-time highs. We're just back inside this previous kind of consolidation and this 21 EMA. So you can see we bounce here off the 21 last time. Now let's see if we can continue to build up a weekly higher low here. This is a good spot for a potential mini bounce here, especially with SMH coming down to key level support. We are looking for potential semiconductor bounce coming into next week. In terms of the key levels that I have marked out on AMD, we have our 520. I'd like to see a reclaim back above 520. If you want to see a short-term bounce on this one, it's going to have to get back above key levels. In terms of NVIDIA, we're right at our 21 EMA along with this previous all-time highs. So let's keep an eye out on NVIDIA, right? Higher lows are being built on the weekly. Let's see if we can bounce here off our 210 for a potential move back towards the upside. As for Apple, this one's continuing to push higher. So we'll continue to look for strength here on this one. Probably one of the only tickers that is at all-time highs that is showing a lot of strength. As for Meta, Meta last week, I did like the bounce here off that nine on the weekly time frame. But as you can see with earnings, this one had a pretty solid bounce right off our 690. Bullish earnings, but you can see pretty big flip. We went from being up roughly 8% to being down over 14% after earnings. So pretty big move and pretty big push towards the downside here on Meta. Next levels is going to be that full daily gap that we'll keep an eye out for next week. As for Google, this one has earnings next week. We'll keep an eye out on this kind of higher time frame, which pattern that it does seem like we're breaking towards the downside. So weekly candle close, bearish. We're breaking structure here right into our higher time frame support. We'll keep an eye out on this major support level here on Google, which is our 320. In terms of Microsoft, this one's still fairly bullish. So hit our all-time highs. We're pulling back here. Let's see if we can make a daily higher low and push back up into our all-time highs here on Microsoft. Amazon's pulling back, has some earnings this week. Netflix had earnings last week. So far, buyers are stepping in off the slow. Same thing with SpaceX. Nice earnings. Nice push towards our 166, but I know coming back down for an earnings gap fill. So coming into this week, what are some of the things that we're going to be looking for? Palantir still holding up, right? MU pulling back. We're going to be looking for a couple semis bounce here just because we are at a higher time frame level of support. That being said, let's go on to some of my top five watches coming into this week. I did want to briefly go over my long-term game plan here as well, just because the market is dropping. I want to talk more so about my game plan in terms of how to deploy capital with, of course, the market's dropping and the VIX spiking. So this is a good rule of thumb that I go by, especially if the VIX spikes, right? When you can deploy some of your capital. If the VIX is around 20, I usually like to deploy, right? 50% of my cash or my cash reserves for dip opportunities. If the VIX spikes to 30, then we can be looking for right closer to 70 to 80%. If the VIX is above 30, we're going to be looking to deploy majority of our capital, especially on major dips. And that's been working out throughout the past few years. Whenever the VIX spikes to 20, that's a good sign. That's usually around anywhere between a seven to 10% retracement. If the VIX spikes above 30, that usually means we've dropped over 10% on the major indices and we're coming to the area where there's going to be a correction. And that's definitely when we want to be buying, right? We want to be buying when there's fear in the markets and we don't want to be buying as the markets are approaching our all-time highs. So I just wanted to give you a game plan in terms of that. As for my top focus coming to this week, what are we going to keep an eye out for DRAM? We want to see if any buyers want to step in off our major support here. We definitely could see a short-term bounce here on the memory tickers coming to next week. As you can see, we're starting to base here off our support levels. So we'll look for a memory bounce. Memory was a little bit stronger on Friday. So we'll keep an eye out for that. SMH, this one, similar thesis, definitely been a little bit weaker, but we're going to keep an eye on this SMH bounce offer 500 for a pushback towards the upside. So we'll keep an eye out for semis bounce coming into early next week. As for some of the tickers that I like, INTC is approaching my major buy zone, which is going to be roughly around this like $80 to $85 a share. So we'll keep an eye out on INTC bounce coming into next week. As for a few other things that I like, Microsoft here off that previous consolidation for a retest pushback towards the upside. So we'll keep an eye out for that. And then I do like NVIDIA here right off that previous all-time highs. We'll keep an eye out on buyers to step in for potential bounce coming into next week. As I mentioned, there's a lot of things that are happening with earnings with FOMC. So we'll keep you guys updated in the pre-market preps. I don't really want to try and predict what the market's going to do because we very much well could have a bunch of news events over the weekend. So I'll keep you guys updated in the pre-market preps. If you guys enjoyed this quick recap, appreciate if you guys drop a like and sub. Besides that, I will see you guys all next week. Take care, everyone. Peace.