The Global Economic Outlook — Bloomberg Surveillance

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. [00:00:27] Speaker 2: We're going to start with a quick good view here to get to June 30th on for the next six months from ING. Annika Trian joined us, Global Head of Private Banking and Wealth with her work out of the London School of Economics. Annika, have you written a mid-year review or do you in the Netherlands have to rewrite it given the news flow? [00:00:49] Annika Trian: A mid-year review? What do you mean by a mid-year review? [00:00:55] Speaker 2: In America, everybody in banking has to write a June 30th 12-page memo that is dead July 15th. That's the way it rolls. If you've written a mid-year review, are you people smarter than us and you don't even do a mid-year review? [00:01:11] Annika Trian: Well, we're not doing a long memo like that, no. We're fortunate, I would say. [00:01:17] Speaker 4: So, Annika, what's the conversation you're having with your clients these days? There's the uncertainty surrounding the geopolitics over in Iran, not to mention Ukraine. What are your conversations like with your clients? [00:01:29] Annika Trian: Yeah, I think it's a sad thing, I would say, because of all the human sort of tragedies going on around the world. But it feels like volatility is becoming increasingly normalized. And that's exactly what we see with our conversation with clients. And I mean, practically, you see it in markets, but we see it in parallel in clients' behavior. So, you know, post a COVID, you saw a market reaction minus 30%. Post Ukraine, minus 20%. Post Liberation Day, minus 15%. And post the recent Middle Eastern conflicts, minus 10%. So, you see that clients are just increasingly resilient and steadfast with what they're doing, why they're doing it, and sticking to convictions. [00:02:12] Speaker 4: So, what is the conviction? One of the trades that we saw when, you know, the tariffs were initially put out last year was some asset flows out of the U.S. into other parts of the world, including in big way, Europe. Is that still the sentiment out there, or is that reversed a little bit in your mind? [00:02:33] Annika Trian: Well, it's really interesting. So, I think two things. First of all, indeed, that happened. And I think Europeans were very excited because it's been a long time coming. We've been talking about systematic valuation mismatches between Europe, U.S., et cetera. But then something happened. And what happened was, of course, we've had this amazing earnings bonanza. And that's especially driven by the U.S., U.S. companies, U.S. equities. Again, year to date, it's been an amazing quarterly earnings season. And I think that is just reforged the notion that European companies are just not able to grow at the speed of U.S. companies. So, I mean, 20% earnings growth for U.S. equities this year is expected. 10% max 15% for Europe. So, I think that makes things tricky. On the other hand, what's interesting, if you talk about Europeans and how Europeans are deploying their capital, number one, we're seeing a lot more Europeans start to actually invest. And this is a really important thing. And number two, you do see quite a home bias. You do see that Europeans like to buy Europe. We do notice this also this year. [00:03:39] Speaker 2: You know, Annika, I think this is a brilliant, brilliant statement. And in America, our understanding is that Europe believes in American technology. Europe believes in American initiative, innovation, and the rest. What's the first derivative of that right now? Is Europe leaning into America into 2027? [00:04:03] Annika Trian: I think Europe, I think there's two things. First of all, we've waited for a long time for the continent of Europe to basically lean, I call it leaning in into capitalism, right? Really putting capital to work. We have trillions lying in deposits. And the US versus Europe is a very different story, right? The average European household has less than a third of the wealth invested. The average US household, more than half. So number one, you're seeing that Europeans are really starting to invest. We don't have the 401k system that you have in the US. So these are deliberate choices that are being increasingly made also by younger populations, which is great. The feeling towards the US from Europe is talking about earnings growth. I think what's happening is we're in a world where, you know, we used to be very demand driven in the last decade. And I think what's happening now, supply is the new demand, right? So all these enormous supply constraints, the need for compute, the need for data centers, etc. And all the AI technology, you see there are just these US champions. And Europe is just keen to get involved and keen to deploy capital in that way. So I think Europeans are very pro-US, constructive on growth that comes out of US companies. But they don't want to neglect their own continents. [00:05:17] Speaker 2: And again, one final question. I want to dive back to the economic history of the London School of Economics. The model is a war ends and there's like celebration and all that as there should be with any ending war. And then there's a vector of disinflation and at times outright deflation. Should we expect, given the headlines, that with an end of this middle war in Iran within the eastern Mediterranean, that we're going to be surprised by some form of tone of disinflation? [00:05:49] Annika Trian: You know, it's interesting because we've indeed been walking a disinflation path, then this conflict, spiked up pricing, etc. We've even seen the ECB have to adjust rates in response. But indeed, if things are settling down, which they seem to be, that can bring us back to the path. What is interesting though, AI, which I think we all believe will be a disinflationary force, it does feel like it's going to be inflationary before deflationary. And back to what I was saying earlier, there is a radical issue when it concerns supply shortages. Shortage of power, shortage of compute, shortage of labor and, you know, in a less of a globalized labor mobility world, etc. And this supply shortage, I do still think has an inflationary edge to it. [00:06:40] Speaker 2: Annika, thank you so much. Really, really appreciate it this morning with ING on this special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance from Queen Victoria Street in London. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. [00:06:56] Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Or watch us live on YouTube. [00:07:13] Speaker 2: We continue to be fortunate with Janet Henry, Global Chief Economist at HSBC and truly a wonderful student of the linkage of the United States with the continent and in all of these events. You know, you've got to rewrite your global economics overview, unfinished business, get James Pomeroy to work. How do you rewrite the HSBC midyear review? [00:07:39] Speaker 5: Well, like a lot of central banks, Tom, we have been thinking about the world with different scenarios. And for our base case scenario, I'd say we actually have a higher degree of confidence than we did just a month ago because we've been working on the basis that the strait would start to reopen in the course of June. We were getting nervous that that might not happen, that we would be in our bad or our uglier scenarios. So, yes, we still talk about scenarios, but the news could have could have been a lot worse. There's still a lot that can go wrong, but at least we can look towards some kind of gradual reopening at the moment during this 60 day ceasefire and hope that during that time some progress has made towards some kind of a deal. So there'll still be fallout from it. But but yes, we're still in a scenario overlay, but a little bit more confident. [00:08:39] Speaker 2: What's amazing about this, Paul, I think we're staggering to day 59, the first day of the 60 day ceasefire. Yes. And the news has changed three times. [00:08:48] Speaker 4: It has changed three times here. I'm not sure where we are. But so, Janet, given, you know, some of the crosswinds that Tom highlights here, how are central banks reacting? We heard from our Federal Reserve and our new Federal Reserve chief this week, but it seems like they're staying put, but they might be thinking about raising rates at some point. How do you see that? I think that's absolutely fair. [00:09:10] Speaker 5: You know, if we go back to even January of this year or even late last year, we certainly never expected the Fed to cut again. We thought there'd be 75 basis points of easing and that would be it. The U.S. economy is is pretty robust. And obviously, we've got the tax cuts already and relative to the rest of the world. And I do talk relative. It's relative winners and relative losers, losers. And the U.S., obviously, an energy exporter and absolutely at the forefront of this whole A.I. boom that is underway globally. So is a relative winner. And no central bank at the moment is going to give any hint that they are not prepared to take the kind of action that they might need to take. Because even in a positive environment, we haven't seen the lasting impact of it. At best, we're going to see a peak in inflation, but then get a hump for some time. They've got to keep all expectations very anchored. [00:10:07] Speaker 2: Janet, I've got to go to the stunning elections that we've seen, a set of elections in the United Kingdom. The HSBC collapse of real GDP, 4% United Kingdom, 0.4% United Kingdom, maybe 1.4% out there in an inflation that goes from 9% down to 3% as well. What kind of economy will the next prime minister, whether Starmer or Burnham, what kind of economy will they have? [00:10:39] Speaker 5: Well, I think if we start the year looking back on the UK, things were finally getting to a slightly better place. We had a fairly robust start to the year. Without a doubt, without the spike in oil prices, we would have seen inflation below 2% as soon as April. We were certainly looking for some pretty big rate cuts in the course of this year. So unlike for the US, the outlook has changed considerably in the UK. So it's not an easy pallet of choices that has faced any of our recent prime ministers in the UK. And we've had quite a few in recent years. The fiscal dynamics are not easy. Difficult political choices are going to have to be taken. And, you know, any prime minister is going to have to get people on board with making those necessary political decisions and to restore global confidence in the outlook for the UK. But actually, we now think that the Bank of England won't actually have to raise interest rates, even if they can't tell anyone that anytime soon. [00:11:44] Speaker 2: HSBC has such a grasp of foreign exchange. What's your euro call here? Do we have weaker euro from a 114.63? [00:11:53] Speaker 5: Yes, actually, we do now look for a slightly weaker dollar. Obviously, since the beginning of the war, the dollar's had the upper hand. It's been moving with the oil prices. And while some of the oil exporting currencies have actually weakened a little bit, especially the likes of Norway and others, actually, the US dollar has remained pretty firm on that whole AI exceptionalism story. So we look for a broad based firmer dollar. And that does include a slightly weaker euro, even from these kind of levels. [00:12:26] Speaker 2: Dr. Henry, thank you so much. Janet Henry, I have to say it. She knows they hate when I say this. The Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation. Yep, there you go. It's so romantic. I mean, it's like, you know, you got to say it. HSBC, thank you so much, Janet Henry. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. [00:12:54] Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7:00 to 10:00 a.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Or watch us live on YouTube. [00:13:06] Speaker 2: Joining us now last time she was on Spectacular. Vanya Stavrakova joins us here from the London Business School with all sorts of other good affiliations. Behind it is prodigious mathematics from Franklin and Marshall. I want to talk, Vanya, about, as you say, a view from 60,000 feet on inflation persistence, slowing growth, geopolitics. The fact is, looking backwards, Vanya, I have a central bank regime, particularly the Fed, at a 3% range, nowhere near a supposed 2% range. Are we in an era where we're losing 2% and we're going to a higher inflation regime? [00:13:50] Speaker 6: Vanya Stavrakova: So thank you so much for having me and it's lovely to join you from the London office. I do believe Kevin Walsh is laying out a completely different playbook for the Federal Reserve, which in many ways I do believe is a positive change. Vanya Stavrakova: So we are in the beginning of a regime change that acknowledges that effectively the Fed has to regain control over inflation because it needs to be prepared for fiscal dominance regime. And I believe that his first speech that we witnessed just a couple of days ago was precisely about that. Vanya Stavrakova: Now, the job is not going to be easy because even though he emphasizes the importance of regaining control over the broad money supply. So effectively the balance sheet of the central bank, which is front and center in his view of how central banks should conduct monetary policy. Vanya Stavrakova: One thing that he kept mentioning during that speech is that at the moment the fact that we have such high stock valuations is probably an important driver of the inflation that we're seeing, right? Vanya Stavrakova: We have a K-shaped growth in the U.S. economy. So the higher the stock market is, the more demand there is by these high income consumers that also hold the stock market. Vanya Stavrakova: And even if you hike interest rates to the extent that the stock market is driven by this AI boom, you might need to hike by a lot in order to put a dent in stock market valuations, which will in turn put a lot of pressure on housing markets, clearly the cost of borrowing for government. So it is a very difficult situation he finds himself in, given that getting the stock market under control is not something that is easy to do or he might be willing to do, but it's an important driver. Vanya Stavrakova: This wealth effect is an important driver of the inflation that we see in the U.S. at the moment. [00:15:31] Speaker 4: Vanya Stavrakova: Professor, we know you have some political issues there. Vanya Stavrakova: The Prime Minister does with the election yesterday up in Birmingham. Vanya Stavrakova: Talk to us about the divergence between kind of the past of economic growth in the U.S. versus the U.K. Vanya Stavrakova: Is it all AI or what else is going on? [00:15:50] Speaker 6: Vanya Stavrakova: Well, sadly, the U.K. has been hit by a number of negative productivity. Vanya Stavrakova: Growth shocks. Vanya Stavrakova: So, first of all, the global financial crisis impacted London and the U.K. Vanya Stavrakova: Much more and much more negatively than the U.S., granted that the financial sector was the main driver of growth in the United Kingdom. Vanya Stavrakova: We never recovered from that. Vanya Stavrakova: And you can see it from the pound, right? Vanya Stavrakova: The pound is a very good barometer of the state of the economy. Vanya Stavrakova: And after the pound depreciated with the onset of the global financial crisis, it never really recovered against the dollar. Vanya Stavrakova: And the second big shot caused Brexit. Vanya Stavrakova: So, essentially, the U.K. hasn't really had much of a growth since the global financial crisis. Vanya Stavrakova: The U.S. is a very different story. Vanya Stavrakova: We have, of course, the high taxation, the high tax burden, which doesn't help with innovation, creating new job retention of companies, Vanya Stavrakova: startups attracting high talent individuals. Vanya Stavrakova: So, yeah, the U.K. is in a much more challenging position than the U.S. in that sense. [00:16:46] Speaker 4: Vanya Stavrakova: So here, one of the other phenomena over the last several years has just been the decline of globalization, Vanya Stavrakova: the on-shoring, maybe the friend-shoring, and some concerns that that structurally will push global inflation higher. Vanya Stavrakova: Do you ascribe to that thought? [00:17:01] Speaker 6: Vanya Stavrakova: Well, what's interesting is that, yes, we have seen inflation being higher, Vanya Stavrakova: and probably a big chunk of that inflation is because of deglobalization, if you wish. Vanya Stavrakova: But also what's surprising is that the global economy has remained quite resilient. Vanya Stavrakova: Right. Vanya Stavrakova: It is possible that a lot has been absorbed by firms lowering markups in sectors and industries that are essentially more competitive. Vanya Stavrakova: But I'm not seeing the main issue with inflation around deglobalization, at least as of yet, Vanya Stavrakova: because the de facto tariff rates are not as high yet and hopefully will not be. [00:17:40] Speaker 2: Vanya Stavrakova: Vanya, I'm sure at Franklin and Marshall you crushed your first exam on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory. Vanya Stavrakova: Hi. Vanya Stavrakova: Clarita told me that. Vanya Stavrakova: Oh, okay. Vanya Stavrakova: You said Vanya's down at Franklin and Marshall just killing it. [00:17:54] Speaker 4: Vanya Stavrakova: Yeah. [00:17:55] Speaker 2: Vanya Stavrakova: Vanya, when you look at the mathematics of all this, is the Warsh Fed going to be as ex post after the fact? Vanya Stavrakova: Is the Powell Fed? Vanya Stavrakova: Is the bottom line is they're just going to have to wait to see what the data is like mere mortals that put their pants on one leg at a time? [00:18:11] Speaker 6: Vanya Stavrakova: I mean, they will look at the data, but I think they will try to use completely a new set of tools. Vanya Stavrakova: They will try to push unconventional monetary policy to completely new level. Vanya Stavrakova: I'm not talking about forward guidance quantitative easing. Vanya Stavrakova: This is old news at the moment. Vanya Stavrakova: I do believe he is going to try all kinds of new instruments and, you know, it's no surprise that he favors the old regime where we had required reserve ratios that could be used to manipulate the money supply, etc. Vanya Stavrakova: Right. Vanya Stavrakova: You know, he's a fan of essentially regaining control of the broad money supply. Vanya Stavrakova: So, in principle, is that useful? Vanya Stavrakova: Yes. Vanya Stavrakova: The more tools you have, you don't have to use a single blunt instrument. Vanya Stavrakova: Having said that, it's not easy to achieve. Vanya Stavrakova: So, we'll have to wait and see. Vanya Stavrakova: Right. Vanya Stavrakova: And it's one thing to say, I want inflation to go down to the percent. Vanya Stavrakova: It's another thing to deliver. Vanya Stavrakova: And you would have to show some actions behind that. Vanya Stavrakova: Right. [00:19:02] Speaker 2: Vanya Stavrakova: Dr. Stavrakova, thank you so much for joining us today from London Business School. Vanya Stavrakova: Really appreciate it. Vanya Stavrakova: Stay with us. Vanya Stavrakova: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. [00:19:13] Speaker 1: Vanya Stavrakova: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Vanya Stavrakova: Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7:00 to 10:00 a.m. Eastern. Vanya Stavrakova: Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Vanya Stavrakova: Or watch us live on YouTube. [00:19:31] Speaker 2: Vanya Stavrakova: We are honored to bring you now a gentleman who, perhaps more than any American, Vanya Stavrakova: spans Robert D. Kaplan's The Loom of Time from Morocco over to Persia. Vanya Stavrakova: Ambassador Puni Tower is the United, was former United States Ambassador to Morocco Vanya Stavrakova: and was directly involved with many negotiations with Iran. Vanya Stavrakova: Ambassador, thank you so much for joining Bloomberg this morning. [00:19:56] Speaker 7: Vanya Stavrakova: It's great to be with you both. [00:19:58] Speaker 2: Vanya Stavrakova: Ambassador, I look at this moment at hand and I want you to take it back Vanya Stavrakova: to Albert Harani and his definitive one volume on the history of the Arab people. Vanya Stavrakova: Is the Arab world from your Morocco to your Iran, is it blown up? [00:20:14] Speaker 7: Vanya Stavrakova: The Middle East has been in a period of incredible turmoil for at least a century, Vanya Stavrakova: especially following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. Vanya Stavrakova: So what we're seeing today is really a continuation of this cycle that has been going on Vanya Stavrakova: for many decades now. Vanya Stavrakova: It's intensified, it's quiet for periods of time, but it has been largely in this period of Vanya Stavrakova: disquiet and unrest for a long period of time. Vanya Stavrakova: And of course, as you know, Persia is not Arab, but they have a significant influence Vanya Stavrakova: Right. Vanya Stavrakova: on parts of the Arab world, especially through their ties Vanya Stavrakova: to the Shia communities and their support under this ideological Iranian regime Vanya Stavrakova: for non-state actors like Hamas, Hezbollah. Vanya Stavrakova: Right. Vanya Stavrakova: So including non-Shia groups. [00:21:14] Speaker 2: Vanya Stavrakova: When you look at Iran and you take it from the span of the '79 revolution Vanya Stavrakova: to the horrific war with Iraq and the balance between the theocracy Vanya Stavrakova: and maybe a middle class in Iran, where does the theocracy of Iran Vanya Stavrakova: place right now versus the military that seems so dominant? [00:21:33] Speaker 7: Vanya Stavrakova: That's a great question. Vanya Stavrakova: And that still has to shake out a little bit. Vanya Stavrakova: Prior to this war, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Vanya Stavrakova: the defenders of the revolution, if you will, Vanya Stavrakova: have had the upper hand in the Iranian decision making process. Vanya Stavrakova: And that has only been strengthened through this war. Vanya Stavrakova: The campaign of assassinations, the taking out of the supreme leader, Vanya Stavrakova: who's a theocrat, the chief theocrat, if you will, in Iran, Vanya Stavrakova: has been replaced now by his son, who's still untested. Vanya Stavrakova: And what we've seen is that the IRGC is in a more dominant position. Vanya Stavrakova: So the hardliners have been strengthened through this war. Vanya Stavrakova: And we have to see how this shakes out and whether the theocracy and the clerics Vanya Stavrakova: will actually take more of a not a backseat, Vanya Stavrakova: but maybe not having as dominant a position as they once did in the past. [00:22:30] Speaker 4: Vanya Stavrakova: Ambassador, can you give us an assessment of the memorandum of understanding? Vanya Stavrakova: What's your view? Vanya Stavrakova: Sure. [00:22:37] Speaker 7: Vanya Stavrakova: I think it's not a very good deal. Vanya Stavrakova: But I think it reflects a reality. Vanya Stavrakova: A reality of a war that was started on faulty assumptions. Vanya Stavrakova: The assumption that Iran was so weak following those massive protests, Vanya Stavrakova: which killed thousands of innocent protesters that a that a quick military operation Vanya Stavrakova: could essentially either topple the government or force it to capitulate. Vanya Stavrakova: And neither of those things happen. Vanya Stavrakova: So war that started on that premise actually has resulted in an Iran that is in a stronger strategic position. Vanya Stavrakova: And this memorandum essentially will for 60 days reopen the Strait of Hormuz, restoring it to the way it was. Vanya Stavrakova: After 60 days, it seems to contemplate the potential for Iran to collect fees. Vanya Stavrakova: And if Iran is unhappy with us at any time, they can continue to regulate the flow of traffic. Vanya Stavrakova: There's not necessarily an on off switch and they're getting a significant amount of upfront sanctions relief, Vanya Stavrakova: which will undercut, I think, the leverage that the administration will want for the second phase of this deal Vanya Stavrakova: to get into the nuclear discussions. [00:23:49] Speaker 4: Vanya Stavrakova: So I guess that begs the question. Vanya Stavrakova: It seems like we're no better than we were before the war. Vanya Stavrakova: Maybe worse off if this Strait is now weaponized in the future. Vanya Stavrakova: How does the U.S. move from here? [00:24:02] Speaker 7: Vanya Stavrakova: That's a good question. Vanya Stavrakova: We are worse off. Vanya Stavrakova: I think Iran certainly has been set back in terms of its conventional military capabilities, Vanya Stavrakova: its defense industrial based. Vanya Stavrakova: But the United States has now lost two key pieces of leverage. Vanya Stavrakova: It's the use of force is no longer credible because we've shown the limitations of that. Vanya Stavrakova: And Iran has withstood this powerful assault. Vanya Stavrakova: And the oil sanctions, which were our most powerful piece of leverage on the sanctions front, Vanya Stavrakova: those are being waived at this point. Vanya Stavrakova: And so what we have to go back to is really the drawing board. Vanya Stavrakova: And what the administration can offer now to get to that nuclear deal that we all want to see to constrain their program Vanya Stavrakova: and to prevent them from getting a weapon is essentially incentives. Vanya Stavrakova: Incentives of over $300 billion in a reconstruction fund. Vanya Stavrakova: And we can have to try to rebuild our alliance structures as well, which are in bad shape in many parts of the world. [00:25:01] Speaker 2: Vanya Stavrakova: Ambassador, to disband this from the Arab Spring in Tunisia and Cairo and bring it over to your Morocco, Vanya Stavrakova: where you were our representative in Marrakesh and in all of the Kings Morocco. Vanya Stavrakova: How does this war destabilize the distant Arab world? Vanya Stavrakova: How does this war destabilize Morocco and Mohammed VI? [00:25:26] Speaker 7: Vanya Stavrakova: Well, Morocco, I don't think, is fundamentally destabilized by this. Vanya Stavrakova: Morocco is actually, this is our 250th anniversary we're going to be celebrating this year. Vanya Stavrakova: It's actually a moment to remember that Morocco was the first country to recognize American independence. Vanya Stavrakova: So this is an old, longstanding relationship. Morocco is an incredibly stable country. Vanya Stavrakova: It's one of two countries in Africa that has reached investment grade status. Vanya Stavrakova: And it's going in a great direction under a very progressive king. Vanya Stavrakova: Now, that said, they're having some influence from this. Vanya Stavrakova: What we're seeing is that sulfur, for example, which is necessary for fertilizer exports, the biggest export earner for Morocco, those have been affected. Vanya Stavrakova: And as a result, Morocco's fertilizer exports will be hurt this year. Vanya Stavrakova: Moreover, Morocco is no friend of Iran. Vanya Stavrakova: They've broken relations with them twice. They actually have no relations right now. Vanya Stavrakova: Part of that goes back to the fact that they actually hosted the Shah after he was overthrown. Vanya Stavrakova: And so they have no love lost. Vanya Stavrakova: And they're probably very concerned, just like many other allies in the region, that Iran is apparently emerging from this in a stronger position. Vanya Stavrakova: They want to see Iran put in a corner and not have the ability to expand its tentacles all across the region. [00:26:50] Speaker 2: Vanya Stavrakova: Ambassador Talmar, thank you so much for joining us today. Vanya Stavrakova: Paul Sweeney and Tom Keane here at Bloomberg. Vanya Stavrakova: The former Ambassador to Morocco, Pani Talwar, with us at Talwar, global strategies and, of course, with the Council on Foreign Relations. [00:27:06] Speaker 1: Vanya Stavrakova: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Vanya Stavrakova: Listen live each weekday, 7 to 10 a.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn and the Bloomberg Business app. Vanya Stavrakova: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. Vanya Stavrakova: I.M.Va. [00:27:31] Speaker ?: Vanya Stavrakova: I.M.Va. Vanya Stavrakova: I.M.Va. Vanya Stavrakova: I.M.Va. Vanya Stavrakova: I.M.Va. Vanya Stavrakova: I.M.Va. Vanya Stavrakova: I.M.Va.