The Exact Date of Next Stock Market Crash

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Six months ago on this channel, Winston here warned you that a wave of trillion dollar IPOs would mark the top of the market. And this week, Ray Dalio, literally the most successful hedge fund manager in history, went on Bloomberg and he said the exact same thing. Maybe he watches the channel. Well, maybe he watches Winston. He's saying the AI bubble is about to burst. SpaceX is listing in a week's time at $1.7 trillion. Anthropic just filed another trillion dollar IPO. And it means that $200 billion of Wall Street money needs to go into these IPOs. And Wall Street's going to find it somewhere. And the question nobody is asking is, what are they going to sell to buy SpaceX? We just said Broadcom, one of the biggest AI stocks on the planet. They just crashed 12 percent in a single night on very good earnings. And I'm going to show you why that wasn't an accident. It was literally the first domino. And just when you thought the bubble was the only risk out there, inflation data just came in hot. Literally hotter than anybody expected. And Goldman Sachs, you know, the bankers with the golden heart, they're modeling now oil at $150 for this year. If that happens, the Fed can't save you. Rates are not going to go down. And by the end of this video, you're going to understand exactly what Ray Dalio sees that most investors don't, where the $200 billion are coming from, and the precise sequence of events that tells you when this party ends. So you could position yourself on the right side of what's coming. My name is Felix Spreen, I'm an ex-investment banker. This is Winston here, who's the brains behind it all. And we've also found the Goat Academy over the last six years, our retired Wall Street mentors have taught 25,000 students, which is super, super fun. And if you watched my video back in January, you already know I've been tracking this exact setup for months. So I'm going to connect three things for you today. Dalio's bubble warning, the IPO frenzy, the Broadcom crash, and yes, also inflation. I mean, you see how all of those four things, isn't it? Yes. Four things connect, everything clicks into place for you. So this isn't a doom and gloom video. This is an opportunity video, because there is massive opportunity, but not much money moves around. But this video is going to cover a lot of ground. So I'm going to warn you, we're going to look at some macro, bubble, IPO, the whole thing. And that'll be a lot of information to absorb in, you know, 20 minutes. So I put together a full research report. Well, Winston obviously has, I just take credit for it. And you can download that completely for free at FelixFrens.org slash bubble. Links in the description, not to worry or anything. No, no, no. Winston is pretty relaxed about this. So let's start with, so let's start with good old Ray, because my buddy Ray isn't some random YouTuber with a theory. He is the founder of the largest hedge fund in the world called Bridgewater Associate. He's been managing money through every bubble, every crash, every crisis for 50 years. And here's what he just said. All great technology changes produce bubbles. And then he said something that I think is the single most important thing any investor needs to understand right now. He said, the pricking is the converting of wealth into money. And that sounds like an odd sentence, but it's actually quite simple. Let me break it down for you. The bubble doesn't burst because the technology fails. AI isn't going to go away. Dahlia was also very clear on that. AI is a wonderful technology in many ways, except if it's stealing your job, but you know, it is useful. The bubble bursts because of liquidity. When paper wealth needs to become cash. He also said, he also said, his bubble indicators are near levels last seen in 1929 and 2000. Yeah, I don't know why I'm smiling either. It's probably because I'm getting to massage this lovely little bear here. So let me give you the simplest way to understand this. Imagine Sarah. Sarah has a lemonade stand and it's worth a million dollars on paper. Why? Because her neighbor said that he'd paid that much for it. Wonderful, right? Sarah is a millionaire on paper. But there is only $10,000 of cash in the entire neighborhood. So if Sarah actually tries to sell her lemonade stand, who's got the money to buy it? Well, nobody. Not exactly what's happening with AI companies right now. They've created trillions of dollars in paper wealth. Valuations are sky high. But paper wealth is not money. You can't spend a valuation. You can't pay your mortgage with a stock price. The moment insiders need the cash, whether for taxes or for debt payments or the third yacht or the fourth mistress, they have to sell. And if a lot of them need cash at the same time, well, guess what? There aren't enough buyers. And the price does what? Correct. It collapses. Not because the company's bad. Because there isn't enough actual money to support the valuation. And Dalio says he estimates the big tech companies, Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft will spend about $650 billion on AI infrastructure this year. $650 billion. An insane amount of money going out of the door. And that spending needs to actually turn into income from revenue. If it doesn't, you've got a $650 billion problem. Now, let me connect this to history because we've seen this movie before. In the year 2000, the dotcom bubble burst. 86% of the IPOs that year were losing money. Nobody cared, right? It was like, oh, whatever. I worked in a dotcom company in 1999. Our success metric by the investors was, how much money are you spending? The more, the better. Yeah. Now, the internet was real. It changed everything. But they did say at the time everything was different. And this time was different. They're saying that again right now. What happened to the Nasdaq? It went down 78%. 78%. And some of your favorite companies like pets.com, yeah, Winston. E-toys, all these guys were just gone, right? They just disappeared. The tech was real. But most of the companies built on that tech went to zero anyway. Now, we've changed ear here, most importantly. But there is a difference in that. I'm not trying to scare you with the dotcom bubble because today's AI leaders are actually profitable, right? Your NVIDIA's, your Microsoft, your Google's, they're real businesses. So this isn't a solvency bubble like 2000 was. The companies won't all go bankrupt. This is a liquidity bubble. And the companies will survive. But the investors who buy at the top, they're the ones who go out. And that's exactly what Dalio is warning about. Now, don't get me wrong. Every time this much money moves around from one pot to another, which is what's about to happen, there is a massive opportunity here. The people who understand how these bubbles work, well, they don't just sort of make it through them. They actually potentially get rich from these bubbles or from the bursting. So let me ask you something and just be honest with yourself here. Have you ever bought a huge winner too late? You saw the stock. You knew it was good. You watched it run up. And by the time you actually bought it, the easy money was gone. Or worse, maybe you held a winner for too long. And then you felt that knife in your stomach as your money slowly bled into Wall Street's pockets, right? And then it happened week after week, you get that red, that red and that red, and it's just dreadful. Now, that isn't bad luck. It is literally a gap between knowing what's happening and knowing what to do about it. And closing that gap is the single most important thing you can do as an investor. And Winston and I are going to do something about that for you. So, we're going to run a free live session. One time only, first time only, never again. And it's called The Greatest Stock Market Playbook. It's two hours live. You can get yourself a free seat at greatestplaybook.com. And I'm going to walk you through, well, Winston will obviously, the exact playbook for navigating what's come. The link's in the description. You can grab yourself a free seat. Do it right now. Show up for yourself. There'll be no replay. Don't ask for it. Now, when I told you six months ago that all the smartest founders in the world are rushing to sell their companies at the same time, you might have been thinking, oh, this guy is a bit of an extremist. Well, guess what? They're doing it right now. We're looking at the biggest IPO in history listing next week on the NASDAQ, June 12th, targeting $1.7 trillion for SpaceX. Now, that's the whole valuation. They're actually going to raise $75 billion. Still not exactly chump change. It's trading at 60 times revenue. Just throw that out there. Anthropic, you know, the guys who make Claude, they just filed a confidential IPO filing with the SEC. They're going to list in October this year with a $965 billion valuation. Well, let's make it a trillion. It's a few billions between friends. Now, Anthropic in February this year was worth $380 billion. So they created $600 billion between February and May. I mean, that's pretty impressive, isn't it? And these two IPOs alone have a problem because they are going to suck up $200 billion of money. Now, you might be thinking it sounds like a large number, but it's not the sort of large number that Wall Street's got lying about. Well, where did the $200 billion come from? First of all, it is more than all IPOs combined since 2022. So 2022. It's kind of a lot, right? So all the IPOs in 2022 and 2023 and 2024 and 2025 and so far in 2026, all of them together are smaller than these two. Now, I told you in Jan that when all the founders in the world or the smartest guys in the world all want to sell at the same time, it isn't a coincidence. They're reading the same data you're looking at right now. They want to sell at the top and they want you to be the buyer. So think about this question. Nobody talks about this. This is the most important question in the world right now. Where's the money going to come from? Well, there are only three places $200 billion can come from. Wall Street sells existing positions, existing stock. They can borrow on margin or they redirect new capital, which is your money. But what it means is really is that Wall Street is going to sell something to buy SpaceX. So the question is what? And that answer is obvious when you think about it. Well, the last three years, the only way to play AI was through the Magnificent. For the last three years, the only way to play AI was through the Magnificent Seven. Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, they were the AI proxy trade. You couldn't buy open AI. So you bought Microsoft, right? You couldn't buy SpaceX. You bought defense stocks and satellite companies. And some of us made a lot of money with those. But now you can buy the real thing. Why own Nvidia as an AI proxy when you can own Anthropic directly? Why own defense stocks as a space proxy when you can own SpaceX? So capital rotates out of the proxy into the real thing. That's the rotation one's talking about. And there's a structural element that makes it worse. When SpaceX enters the NASDAQ 100, which they will on literally day 15, it's a done deal. Index funds, you know, your ETFs, your QQQ and all that stuff. They have to buy SpaceX. So they need to sell other stocks. It is mandatory structural selling pressure on every other stock in the index. And I think we just saw the first sign of this. The first sign of this. This week Broadcom reported earnings. Revenue was up 48% over the year. Semiconductor revenue doubled. Earnings per share beat expectations. And the stock crashes 12% in a day. So record revenue beat all estimates. AI revenue doubled and the stock still crashed 12% in one night. Why? Because Broadcom had already rallied 40% up this year. So the market had gone up before this. The market had priced in perfection. I mean, the company guided very strongly. Investors took profits, which is what investors do. At least the Wall Street ones. I'm not sure about you. It is a textbook late cycle behavior. Buy the rumor, sell the news. It's sort of a popular way of describing it. But the part that really caught my attention was this. On the earnings call. But here's the part that really caught my attention. On the earnings call, Broadcom's CEO named their six core AI customers. Google, Meta, and then Anthropic. OpenAI. Two of the six biggest customers. The companies are about to IPO. And I get all my earnings data, by the way. So in the Winston app, there's an earnings flash when big important earnings happen. And we tell you what happened. We give you the key questions here from analysts and then from the management, the replies. And as well as our take on the whole thing. So earnings were actually very, very good. And I mean, bear in mind, this is a stock that Donald Trump has an 8.6 million stake in. Right? This is like you'd think in the weird world that we live in, it'd be looking pretty sweet. And I'll give you guys, if you want to play with this and check it out, a free month access to the Winston app as well to give you guys some extra value here. But, and there's a link down below in the description, but let's connect the dots. The money is already flowing towards the new shiny thing. And away from the companies that used to be the only way to play AI. If a stock can report record revenue. Right? Record revenue. Massive cash flow. To us, this company got better. We moved it from a 74 to a 76 score, but it crashed 12% in a day. It tells you the market is no longer rewarding good news. It's looking for reasons to sell. And historically, that is one of the most reliable signals of a late cycle market. So now you see the picture, right? You've got Dalio's warning about liquidity. There's not enough money about. 200 billion in IPOs are by the drained up market. Broadcom crashes on record earnings because people were like, well, that was great. Let's collect our profits so we can buy SpaceX next week. But don't get me wrong. There was a massive opportunity here. Every time this much money moves, some people make fortunes. But they're made by the people who have a plan, not by the people who have FOMO. So be honest with yourself. Have you bought a huge winner too late? Have you held a winner for too long and felt that, you know, pain in your stomach, right? Your money bled into Wall Street's pockets because actually finding the good companies isn't the hard part. I just showed you the setup. The hard part is the playbook, the entry, the exit, the position sizing, the discipline to make sure you don't have 30, 40, 50% drops. And that's what I'm going to cover for you on Saturday. Free session, two hours live training. You're the greatestplaybook.com. Grab yourself a ticket. Show up for yourself. So you learn the skills before this tsunami hits the market. Now, everything I've told you so far assumes, and my mentor used to say assumptions are the... Everything I just told you so far assumes, and my mentor used to say, Felix, assumptions are the mother of all F-offs. He was less polite than me. It assumes that the Fed keeps printing money, that the liquidity keeps flowing, that the safety net stays in place. But what if it doesn't? Because something just happened in the sort of economic world that changes everything. Jobs data came in better than expected. And you might think, well, it's a good thing, isn't it? It can't be strong. Woohoo! No. Factory orders also came in strong. But you see, the stock market is not a reflection of good news for in the real world. The stock market has very little to do with the real world. Well, the stock market, this is a problem. Why? Because a hot economy, so lots of growth, lots of jobs, create more inflation. People have more money, people are going to ask for higher wages, and so on. And the Fed can't cut rates when you are built to inflation. They have less room to print money, less room to keep the market pumped. And this is what Wall Street calls good news is bad news. Sounds kind of schizophrenic, but welcome to the wonderful world of finance. It just means the Fed's going to keep a bit of a foot on the brake. That's the opposite of what we need right now. And on top of that, I mentioned this briefly at the top, there's oil. Goldman Sachs, you know, the bankers with the Kitten Orphanage and the Bunny Rabbit Sanctuary, those guys. They just said oil is going to hit $150 or $160 a barrel this year. Why? Because the Strait of Hormuz, you know, that lovely narrow waterway that we all talk so much about. Never knew where the heck that was, right? It was a lovely world and never knew where that was. We track it on here. You can see what's going on also again in the Winston up. You can even see the actual ships. And I can tell you that is not a, I can tell you that is not a lot of ships passing it. You want to see the vessels not piled up here and on the other side. You want them going through. But look what? No one's freaking going through because no one's suicidal. 20% of the world's oil goes through. And after the conflict with Iran, because if you called it a war, you'd have to ask Congress. Oil doesn't flow anymore. And if oil does hit $150, which is hopefully not going to happen, but it could. The Fed can't cut rates. You're going to have high inflation. They might even have to hike rates. Now, can we make money out of it? Yeah, I mean, I've been in an oil stock for ages, for example. I'll show you the one. And I'm telling you should run out and buy it. But I'm going to illustrate to you, not that I'm smarter. I just want to illustrate to you that once you know the rules, you know that there is always an opportunity. Been in this one here since about, about here, September. Why? I didn't know anything about the war in September. There wasn't one, but I saw that the money was flowing in. We're up 61% on our investment, which is pretty sweet, right? So higher oil prices for me are going to make me money. But for most people, rising oil is a tax on everything. On every business and every consumer on the planet. And it can make or break the whole setup. Every single major crash we've had was preceded by an oil price spike. Yeah, it's true. Look at 2008. Look at 2000. Look at every single crash we had. Always oil went up before. How do I know that? One of my mentors told me. Lovely chap called Elliot. He's been in the commodity markets for, you know, 20 years. And so in January, I gave you a three-step playbook, right? So let me update that with what we have right now. Stage one, I said economic weakness could force the Fed to start printing money again. Well, check on that one. The Fed started something they call reserve management purchases. It's just money printing. 40 billion a month. Almost 500 billion a year, that is. Why did they do that? Because the banks were running out of money. So they bailed out the banks quietly. The second stage was I said money would flood into assets. Stock prices would rally. Valuations would go to extremes. And I said, when that happens, the founders would rush to IPO at the top. That's exactly where we are right now. The market's been rallying. Broadcom was up like 40% before it crashed. SpaceX IPO-ing. Anthropic coming up. Somebody said anthrax coming up. Anthropic coming up. Now stage three, this is what's coming next. And the timeline is now much more specific than it was in January. SpaceX. SpaceX lists on June 12th. We know that. For six months after the IPO, insiders and early investors, they're locked up. They can't sell. Now, they're going to do some hinging, which could depress this price a bit, but they can't sell. And even then, they might not sell because they might borrow against it. But still, there'll be some selling. So the selling pressure will kick in in December, 2026. Anthropic is targeting their October IPO. That lockup would expire about April, 2027. And what happens in between October and December? You get midterms. Those lovely elections Americans hold for fun, right? Now, this second year of the presidential cycle has historically been not great for the market. 90% accurate since 1933. Now, past performance isn't the prediction of the future. And I haven't got a crystal ball. I'm not a financial advisor and all that. But the danger zone isn't tomorrow. The danger zone is the window from late 2026 to early 2027. The lockups expires. The insiders can sell. The midterms create uncertainty. And the market figures out which AI companies actually make money and which ones are just hype because we're going to start getting their earnings reports. So, my January thesis was a forecast. Confirmed. Dalio's validated the bubble thesis. Broadcom is showing us we're in a late signal. Late cycle signal, rather. SpaceX is filed. The IPOs are coming. But there are two things that haven't changed that I didn't anticipate. First, inflation. The macro data, the economy is running hotter. If inflation re-accelerates, which it looks like it will, the Fed loses its ability to print as much money. It removes the safety net. So, I assumed the Fed would keep printing. I assumed interest rates would come down. But I didn't foresee the second risk. Oil. I didn't think the El Presidente will start another war, but he did. And if this escalates or this continues, then you get an oil shock. And that breaks a lot of our thesis. So, the playbook always has to account for two scenarios. Scenario one, the classic setup. Market rallies into the IPOs, corrects out the lockups. And the quality stocks get cheaper, which creates a beautiful opportunity for us to be able to look for. And then scenario two, where we have inflation and oil breaking this setup earlier. The Fed not stepping in to rescue us. And the correction becomes deeper and faster than we would like. So, what am I doing? First of all, I'm going to give you the full playbook on Saturday. The full rules, how to think about it. Not just for this setup, but for all future setups. Because once you understand the patterns, you can make much better decisions the way Wall Street does. We follow the money, essentially. But I'm going to tell you what I'm doing. Doesn't mean you should do it. I'm not a financial advisor. I'm just sharing with you what I'm doing. Step number one is I don't buy IPOs. I never do. They're like 5,000 stocks out there in the United States. Globally, they're a heck of a lot more. If I click on all markets in the Winston up, how many stocks do we cover? Nine and a half thousand. And that's only primary listings. So, there are nine and a half thousand stocks out there that I could buy. Who have audited returns, proven management, a track record, the market understands it. So, why would one brand new stock that I've never been able to analyze deserve more of my attention than those 5,000? Always ask yourself. It is FOMO that drives people into IPOs. And also ask yourself, why are the smartest people in the world honoring you by letting you be their exit liquidity? Why have the founders and the early investors, the people with the most information decided that right now is the perfect time to sell to you, right? And number two, I stay invested. But I have exit management on every single item I have. I have a stop set up on every single position, every single stock that I have. I manage my position sizes. And I move around with wherever the money is flowing. From this sector to that sector to this sector. I don't care what makes me money. You know, whether it's an oil services stock that's up, you know, 70%. Or one of the things I bought last week, I mentioned it to you guys, was this one here. And I don't know if that's going to be a cropper or brilliant. It's up 12% in about a week. It's a little bit less than a week. I bought it a little bit later than that. And I don't care whether this is the most brilliant company in the world. What I care about is whether the Wall Street money is buying it. Because it's much, much easier in my humble opinion, for things to go up when lots of money is buying it. And not just me, he's got some sort of affliction, sorry, conviction about it. But for those of you, you're not going to show up for themselves on Saturday because you're not that serious about acquiring the skills to manage your money better. Let me give you a couple of signals. So at least you've got a bit of a life vest around you. Signals I look for: when the ARK ETFs start rolling over, as in going down, that is bad. When we get good earnings and they get sold, that is bad. And when your barber talks to you about a stock or an IPO, it is really, really bad. Now my barber is 83 years old, so it is particularly bad when he starts talking to me about specific stocks. Now, having said all of that and having scared the bejesus out of you, the opportunity is the correction. I love a good correction. Now, I realize that this is bad for most people because they haven't got the skills to deal with it. And I genuinely think about that every single day, which is why I do what I do here, to educate more people. Because I think ultimately we're going to have a much better world if anybody has financial education. Let me know if you agree with that. Put an agree in the comments down below. But in a market corrects, quality stocks get cheaper. So you can buy high-quality stocks on sale rather than at all-time highs. And that is a wonderful thing. So the crash is never the enemy. But you need to know what to do. You need to know what to look for. You need to have a system. You need to have a structure. You need to have some money. So come and learn with us. The Greatest Stock Market Playbook. First and likely last time we're going to run this live this Saturday. About two hours. It works if you're on a European or a North American time zone or a South American time zone or anywhere else in between. Go to greatestplaybook.com. Grab yourself a seat. It doesn't matter how much money you've got. This is about skills. Anybody can learn skills. And if you've got some value out of this, share it with a friend. If you think your friends might get some value out of the free live session, share the link with them as well. And I wish you improving skills. All the best. A few weeks ago on this channel, Winston here showed you four small stocks before anybody was really paying attention. One was Redwire, which this one figured out. 163% up.