The ENTIRE Stock Market Just Changed... It's Time To BUY

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: All right, good morning, everybody. Today, Monday, August the 3rd. Welcome to the live training session. Let's dive into the charts, okay? Good to see you all here this morning. We have a lot of news coming into the market. We have a strong market, a market I believe is going to go higher despite all the talk of war and all the talk of overvaluation and the fact that we are late in the AI cycle. All the internals still tell us we're going higher. And over the weekend, this is a great test, okay, of the strength of a market. And that is, what does it do when you get bad news, okay? And over the weekend, Trump pulled for what seems to be the dozenth time, the old, we're going to bomb you. Okay, we're pulling back. We're having good talks. Iran says, no, we're not. They say, we're close to a deal. And Iran says, no, we're not. And so there's a lot of fear there. And in fact, Iran came out and said, any strike by the U.S., we're going to retaliate 10 to 1 against all the Gulf partners of the U.S. And look what stocks have done. When we look at the overnight market, look at the futures over here to the top right. S&P's up half a percent. The Dow's up more than one percent. The Russell's up one percent. Even the NASDAQ is holding in there about 20 basis points higher. So again, it's just a sign that despite what it seems to be not great news, and despite the fact that interest rates are going up, that inflation is running hot, the market is not pulling back much. I mean, we had a little bit in the NASDAQ. I'm going to explain that to you, what's going on with tech. But a lot of strength in a market that on the surface doesn't sound like there's a lot of good news. And that is, again, typically a sign of a lot of strength. When stocks start going down on good news, that's a bad sign. When they start going up on good news or up on bad news, that's a very good sign. And so we're seeing some strength in the market. Most of our indicators are net new highs, still showing positive. The percentage of stocks with a 200-day down here on the bottom is an indication of how broad the rally is, holding up here in this 60-65% range where it has been for all of this bull market. So no signs of the market breaking down beneath the surface. The advanced decline line, which is the line here in yellow, which would be breaking down early if the market were a narrow leadership, meaning if a handful of stocks are driving it, that is not the case. The liquidity indication, the NFCI is a measure put out by the Chicago Fed, showing how much leverage, basically how much cash is going into stocks or out. Notice the inverse correlation. When conditions are tightening, that's money going out of the market is stocks tend to go down. Bold conditions are loosening. That's very good for stocks. They tend to go up. So we are coiling up here, getting ready for what I believe is one last or another rally into the end of the year. Okay. So let's go through this today. What I'd like to do is kind of give you a framework for how to find winning stocks, right? A top-down formula looking at how do I know where to focus, right? Which stocks to pick? How do I know which ones to buy and where, and how do I know when to sell them? And if you follow, if you know those three things, well, your life's going to get a heck of a lot easier. Okay. So welcome to all of you. It is eight o'clock central U.S. time. Some of you, it's nine o'clock. Some of you, it's six o'clock. Somebody said, joining us from France. Welcome to you, Toyo. Good morning from the People's Socialist Republic of Oregon. Good morning to you as well. Okay. So a couple of things to cover first. [00:03:44] Speaker 2: How many people have ever seen whoops. Okay. Hold on. This. Let me, let me, let me compress it down so you can see it. How many people have never been shown an image that looks like this before? Get it on the screen. Sorry about that. Trying to squeeze it all in there. Okay. Somebody in Mobile, get out of here. I'm in Fairhope. I grew up in Mobile. [00:04:16] Speaker 1: You're right across the bay. All right. So anyway, this is the fourth stage of the stock cycle. And this is probably the most important thing you could understand today because it shows you where a stock is in its cycle, right? We know what drives stocks is not you and me. It's Goldman Sachs. It's BlackRock. It's the big multi-billion dollar funds. And one of them, in fact, blew up last week. And that shot a lot of stocks down. I'm going to show you what happened here momentarily. But they're the ones driving prices. It stands to reason if it's a stock they're actively acquiring and buying up, it will be going higher. If it's a stock they're actively selling, it's going to be going down. And stocks tend to follow the same four-stage process over and over and over again. And this one's a little tougher because this is 2020 when COVID hit. That's that little sell-off over here to the left side of the chart. Without it, it would have been this nice long kind of 12-month stage one. So just note this one's a bit odd in that case. But the stages stand the same, right? A stock gets cheap. It's in the accumulation phase where it's being bought up and it's trading at a decent multiple. They think the future looks good. Stage two is the markup phase where it's hot. It's in demand. The earnings are soaring. Everybody wants it. This is what NVIDIA was the last couple of years, what the AI stocks have been. It's what gold and silver and the miners were last year, right? It gets into these good uptrends where all the money's made. It goes into stage three where the institutions start dumping it. They're getting out of the stock. It's either reached their value or the sales are slowing down or whatever it may be. And then it, almost like clockwork, goes into a steady stage four markdown phase where leading stocks can lose 50 to 80 percent of their value. And if you go back and you look at charts of PayPal, of Apple, of Google, of all of them, they all do this over and over again throughout their life cycle. So don't sit back and go, well, Apple's never going to fall 50 percent. Yes, it will. It's going to do it again like it's done it six, eight times in its past. NVIDIA. We're seeing it happen right now with SpaceX, right? So if you know where a stock is in its life cycle, it's going to make your life a heck of a lot easier. Obviously, we want it to be in stage two. Okay. And stocks coming out of stage one can be some of the biggest opportunities. But this is a weekly chart. Just know that this is kind of the framework for looking for. If you stick to stocks and clear stage twos, your success rate is just going to be higher. The odds you're going to do well in a stock that's steadily trending higher are much better than if you buy a stock that's steadily trending lower. And don't make the mistake most people make to go, I want to buy their low in stage four because when it gets back to 500 bucks a share, I'm going to be rich. Well, sometimes they never do. So if you bought Roku over here at, you know, 90, 100 bucks a share back in 2022, you're still waiting on that money to come back. Okay. Stocks often get massively overvalued into prices that make no sense where they will never return to again. So don't make that same mistake that most people make. Okay. All right. So [00:07:34] Speaker 2: what are we seeing leading the market right now? Well, it stands to reason that if [00:07:42] Speaker 1: the Black Rocks and the State Streets and the, you know, Leopold Aschenbrenners and the the Bill Ackmans of the world are the one driving stocks, then, well, whatever they're buying most heavily is going to go up the most. And whatever they're selling most heavily is going to go down the most, right? Pretty simple. It's just supply and demand. So one of the best things you can do for yourself is track what's leading the market. See which areas are rising and which ones are not. Because again, just trying to put the odds in our favor, we want to go where the momentum is. What's Newton's first law? An object in motion tends to stay in motion, right? A stock trending higher tends to keep going higher and a stock trending down tends to keep going down. Eventually that will change. But if our goal is to make money over the next couple of weeks or next couple of months, we want to be in line with that momentum, right? We're not trying to swim against the current here. And so this is our industry strength indicator. It is free for all of our Black Ops members. So if you are not already a member, make sure to click the link in the description or just go to trade with Ross. If you're laying there in bed or something, just scan that QR code over there in the corner. It's five bucks for the whole year. We give you this on top of the weekly sessions on top of the weekly newsletter, tons of stuff there, just five bucks. I think most of you are probably members, but if you're not, make sure to sign up because we may have to take these Monday sessions back over to Zoom, which they'll be members only. But this industry strength indicator is real simple. What it does, it looks at 40 different sectors of the market via ETFs or exchange traded funds and sees which one's going up the most, right? And right now we're in a bit of a transition period. We know the market's been kind of choppy the last couple of months. This is typically what happens when that takes place. And we're looking for rotation, right? Where is the money going to? Sometimes this is like crystal clear. Sometimes number one is like the same on one month, two months, three months, six months, nine months. You're like, all right, that's where the money is. Several months ago, that was semiconductors. See how they're leading here over six and nine and 12 months. That's because if you look at the semiconductor index, which is Nvidia and AMD and Intel and all those, well, they were soaring in April, in May, in June, they're up big over the last year, right? That was leading the market. But if you look here, the last couple of months hasn't been the case. That tends to happen when a sector doubles or triples in a year, they get a little long in the tooth. Okay. So that is now falling off. We're not seeing that leading over the shorter term period. So that's a rotation out of the semiconductor stocks. They bought them all, they doubled, they tripled, they've made their money, taking profits. So we're looking for new areas rising up the ranks. Shipping is obviously coming up pretty strong in here. That's a very direct reflection of what's happening with Iran and the straits and it's closed and it's open and it's closed and it's open and we control it. No, you don't. We're going to escort ships. Oops, they shot one out, right? It's a bit ping pongy. And it's a tough one, but I'll show you an area that a couple of stocks that could be good there. We're seeing a little bit of strength in cybersecurity, if that's falling off. We're seeing some biotech, but we're kind of in a transitional period. And I, it's much easier when I hop in here on Monday and I'm like very clear, here's the leadership, here's where we're going to focus. That's not always the case. I'm going to be honest with you. Okay. Sometimes it is. And when that happens, we're going to put our foot on the gas and go extremely heavy into the stocks we see. But right now, if we look at the market, I think it's coming out, but it's been choppy the last couple of months, right? Since we topped up here in the first of June, June, July, so far in August, we haven't gone anywhere. And that is okay. That is setting up the next run higher, but it's, it's, you know, you're not going to get as many winners when the market's doing this as you are in the markets doing this. So our goal is to be positioned when this happens, right? But there's still going to be some stocks we can look at, but clean rallies where you want to make money. These, these consolidation periods are not as fun. This is when the money tends to be made. And again, this is just what stocks do. They, they stair step, right? This is, this is the tariff situation. This is the initial war in Iran. But you, if you look at any leading stock, you look at say Nvidia or something, right? And we just go back the last several years, you see that stair stepping. It runs, it consolidates for a few weeks. It runs, it consolidates, runs, consolidates, runs, big, long, massive year of nowhere runs, consolidates, right? So what I'm going to show you today is how to buy here and here and here and here. Okay. That's what we want. We want to capture the rallies. I have no interest in sitting in chop city. I have no interest in buying a stock and having diamond hands and being proven right eight, nine, 10 months later. I'm going to buy a stock that can go up in the next couple of weeks or next couple of months. Okay. And OW is on the move this morning. Let's see. Yeah. I mean, I guess you could say that it's up a couple of points. Um, so anyway, here is, well, tell you what, give me, give me, give me a good leading stock. Give me one. It's in a good trend. I don't, I don't want to cherry pick. I want to show you that this works and I'm going to look to the comments. ADPT does look good. I like that one. [00:13:28] Speaker 2: Gen digital. Yep. Like that one too. You got some good picks here, Alex. I like them. Dino. Dino is a great example. [00:13:38] Speaker 1: Let me set Amazon. Let's see. Amazon has not been, oh, big gap on earnings. I've been trending much. I almost went heavy into Amazon last month. That's unfortunate Monday. Let's see. Monday has been getting beaten pretty badly. It's starting to set up Z bio. I just want to know like a decent winner. I mean, Z bio can work. That's fine. All right. So look, this is a stock that went from $10 to 40. All right. There were, there's some opportunities to make money in there. So what are we looking for to buy? Well, let me show you a pretty clean breakout pattern that you can use to make money. All right. So this is a perfect example of a stock coming out of stage one into stage two and I'll turn the moving averages off. Okay. We talked about the stages, right? And this is an IPO. So it's very short stage one. There's a big stage four. And then look at this big stage one that took place over about a year period. Okay. Then you get the stage two markup phase. Then you got the choppiness at stage three capitulation overnight, massive dip into stage four. Okay. So how do we know to buy it right there? That's where you wanted to buy it, right? I mean, you want to buy it at 15 and have it go to 45 in a couple of months. That's our goal. So what are we looking for? Well, this one's not perfect, but it's going to do the trick. This is what I call a shallowing base breakout. All right. Minervini has a version of this. He calls a volatility compression pattern. William O'Neill look for things called cup with handles and it's all the same idea. And that idea is that you want to get it coming out of consolidation into a breakout period. And when it does that, whether it's here at the lows or up at the highs, it generally does something that looks like this. Okay. That's the, that shallowing breakout I'm talking about. And this is very important to understand what's happening and why that's happening. Okay. Here's what's going on. The market runs on a function of supply and demand. That's simple. That demand may be because earnings or expectations are high. That supply may be because they're blowing up or a hedge fund is massively over leveraged or getting unwanted, whatever it may be. But the mechanism is the same. If there's more demand, i.e. buying than supply, it's going to go up and vice versa. So when a stock is falling from 26 to six, who's in charge? Lots of supply, lots of people selling and cashing out, right? And it will continue to fall until that changes, until that supply is exhausted. And when that happens, you tend to get this formation right here. So notice how the dips are finally beginning to get bought and they're driving it up. There's going to be some people taking profits and selling it down. Again, drive it back up. There may be rumors that the stock gets downgraded or the, or the CEO's leaving or whatever, but it forms the shallowing pattern. And when I say shallowing, what I mean is the dips become smaller [00:16:54] Speaker 2: and smaller and smaller. So even if you look like from in here, it fell 44%, then it was falling like, [00:17:04] Speaker 1: you know, 30%, still falling about 25. Right here at the end, it's a nice little tight 10%. And it's getting tighter and tighter and tighter and tighter. And that's happening because the supply is being sucked out of the stock. There are fewer and fewer sellers in each wave. There was tons of sellers over here. Okay. By here, there's not many sellers left. And so once this completes, once all this compression takes place and that the stock has become concentrated into those strong hands, the Black Rocks, the Fidelities, the Magellan funds that are building these long-term positions, once they've gobbled up all the stock, they can get their hands on at this $9, $10, $11 prices. Now, if they want to buy, they got to pay up. And you can see the resistance. After the initial dip, it stalls here. It rallies all the way to 12 and stalls there, stalls there, stalls there, stalls there. Right. Very, very clear. And so once it breaks out, once it gets out above this resistance area, that's when the stock is now free to run higher. And that's where historically the best buying opportunities have been because it's like a coiled spring tightening its energy. And what's happening over here, like think about how the market right now has been compressing and chopping for a couple of months is setting up that next run. This is when you really want to be doing your homework. This is when you really want to be focusing on where's the money flowing, which groups are setting up, which stocks are getting ready to break out higher. And once it does very clearly, this is a good stage two all over in here. Right. And this is where we'll be owning it. Now, what if you missed this first buy right here and it goes from 12 to 20. All right. Well, there's, there's typically more than one buying opportunity within there. And so if you look at this initial run, for example, see this rip off the bottom. All right. That's a 100% move from June 30th to July 24th. It doesn't look like much in hindsight, but that stock doubled in three weeks. Okay. That's a big move. And so let me go back just a little bit here. I'm going to zoom in a little bit on this chart. Okay. That's a big move. And so it will typically digest that move. Right. It's doubled. Some people want to take profits. I'm going to be one of them. I tell y'all all the time. I buy a stock. It doubles in three weeks. I'm selling half a third, two thirds, all of it. I'm selling some. I don't look at gift tourists in the mouth. That's going to cause this little pullback. And if they're still buying, if the demand is still there, notice how it tightens up and compresses and then breaks out again. And if you notice, first of all, it goes from 18 to 22 in a couple of days, but then it pulled back right here. Okay. Where does it pull back to? Just about to the penny to that same past breakout area. What was resistance, resistance has now become support. Support. People are getting a second chance to buy in there. So the initial breakout area where it comes out of this pattern, that's buy point number one. That's, that's my favorite place to buy a stock right here. Okay. If I miss it and it pulls back, that's my second favorite right there, a retest of that breakout area. And these historically have been the highest probability places to buy. If you're in a leading stock in a leading group in stage two with strong momentum, right? Until the party eventually comes to end. This is a biotech stock. They're notoriously risky. Obviously some kind of drug trial or something that came out overnight. The stock fell 50% in a day. I mean, that, that, that stings, right? You're not going to see this in Apple and Netflix and, and, and, you know, the big names, but biotech you can. Okay. So that's our go-to breakout pattern. So what I want to see is either a stock breaking out from one of these patterns or pulling back to a recent area. And so if I, if I follow this process, okay, I've got a market getting ready, coming out of compression. I've got a leading area of the market that is showing a lot of strength where the dollars are flowing into and the hedge funds and the mutual funds and the endowments are buying. And then I've got a stock in that group coming out of one of these patterns. That's where I've got the, the best odds, right? And it, you know, so just to give you an example, like if you go back and look at the semiconductor industry, right, when it was breaking out over in here, it was a little choppy, [00:21:57] Speaker 2: but you can see that same kind of right long base breaking out, you know, here in early April, [00:22:06] Speaker 1: right? Well, if you go back and look at the stocks in that group, you'll see that same action in April Intel was breaking out, uh, AMD was breaking out. And I don't think NVIDIA took a big part of that rally. It ran a little bit, but it's, it's, it's already worth 5 trillion. It's, it's, uh, it's run. But, uh, anyway, Micron, for example, this is one we actually bought at my alpha stock service. And you can see that pattern very clearly here. Now you might be looking at this going, Ross, you said shallowing shouldn't have done this, right? Why did it dip down there? Well, it absolutely should have done that. Why would it have broken the structure? Why would Micron have broken down right here in March and sold off below what it should have been doing? Who can tell me why this would have happened? Anybody have any idea? Think about what was happening in the world. What would Micron and every other stock have no control over that might drive their stock lower at this period? Well, we went to war with Iran, right? No one is expecting that. It's a fear the market didn't see coming. Everything sold off, whether you're Micron or Walmart or SpaceX, actually SpaceX wasn't trading yet, or Target or Warrior Coal or any, all of them, everything went down. But look at how quickly it recovered. Look at how they drove the stock back from 300 to 450 in like 10 days. And it came in nice, tight little consolidation. So the demand was still there. It just sold off because of external forces. But that was a great buying opportunity. Now, would I buy Micron today? No. The move is over. The buy was at 500. I'd have been selling some on the break of the 20-day, getting out of all of it at the break of the 50-day moving average. I'd be out of this thing at 900 bucks. Okay, I buy at 500. I'm at 900. No complaints. I'm up 80% in a couple of months on a mega cap stock. Yeah, I'll take that all day long. But what's going on now? Well, I mean, [00:24:12] Speaker 2: it's no longer in that formation, right? We have a stock that's... There it is. But it's breaking through the moving averages. It's trading below the 50-day, [00:24:32] Speaker 1: below the 20-day. It's pushing lower. It's no longer a stock that we have at edge. Might Micron be higher in a month or a year? Sure, it could be. It could be double here. I don't know. But I don't have the odds [00:24:44] Speaker 2: in my favor. Right? Now, did I place a trade over the weekend? Yes. So here's what I did. If you're not [00:24:57] Speaker 1: familiar, there is a hedge fund called Situational Awareness run by a guy named Leopold Auschenbrenner. This kid has been the Wall Street Wonderboy for the last two years. He is an odd-looking little fella. He is young. I think he's like 24. I'll show you a picture of him. Look at this little dweeb. Okay. Little nerdy kid. How is he Wall Street's Wonderboy? Well, he's a genius. He graduated from Columbia at 19. He went to work at OpenAI. He was fired, holds a fiasco, etc. But he wrote a white paper called Situational Awareness back in 2023 that laid out the case that said, AI's coming. It's way bigger than anybody on Wall Street thinks. The infrastructure build-out is going to be huge and nobody's prepared for it. And this thing made its rounds in the Silicon Valley. Everybody read this. He got so much publicity, he started a hedge fund, and he got some big heavy hitters out of Silicon Valley that invested in this fund. He built up about a billion [00:26:05] Speaker 2: dollar fund. And he made huge amounts of money. He was up as of June. Let's look at the NASDAQ for [00:26:16] Speaker 1: reference. As of June, the end of June. Okay. So right in here, his fund was up over 1000%. He was up 430% year to date from January to June because he was buying Micron back over here. He made big bets in Sandisk and Bloom Energy and all the big leading stocks that are the piggyback plays on AI. But what no one really realized was he went massively leveraged. He was trading three, four, sometimes five to one leverage on his positions. And what happened in July is a lot of these stocks rolled over. Bloom Energy rolled over. Micron rolled over. Sandisk was cut in half from 2300 to 1000. The Korean market fell by like 40%. And he was leveraged long. And so what happened was he got wiped out. The kids of 1000 or so percent got margin called, which means, hey, we lent you a bunch of money to buy stocks. You've run out of your money. We need our money back. And so last week, in fact, on Wednesday evening, a hedge fund manager named Ken Griffin bought his entire portfolio, pennies on the dollar. Okay. And what that created last week and the week before something called forced liquidation. He had these massive multi-billion dollar positions in a lot of these stocks. The stock started falling. Then he's getting margin called, meaning they're calling him saying, you have to sell everything right now. And they're forcing his positions closed. And what happened is that added fuel to the fire. And Wall Street, when they smell blood, they just go for the jugular. And Ken Griffin and his firm, they were out there making predictions that the Fed was going to raise interest rates last week, which would have put more pressure on stocks. And so they jammed him in the corner. They bought his portfolio for pennies on the dollar. But I think these stocks pulled back. But this last little swing here was forced liquidation. And it caused a lot of these stocks to fall further than they should have. So what I did is say, all right, I think this is forced liquidation. I think a lot of these stocks sold off further than they should have. And they're trading back here at half what they were a month, six weeks ago. And so I took positions in all of his stocks, or at least the 10 big ones. Shorts get on short. Shorts get on short, exactly. And so I'm not giving a lot of room. If we break down and we continue to make new lows here, if the NASDAQ really rolls over, I'll take an exit on these. But what I'm betting is that last week's forced selling push lower was an exaggerated move. And Bloom Energy may have gone from 350 to 250, but probably shouldn't have gone here to 150, right? And I'm betting that Micron, yeah, it's sold a little bit, but I don't think it's going to continue going. Now, maybe it does. We'll see. I'm taking a little bit of a bet there, or a little bit of a risk there on that. But it's just a macro force that was driving some of these stocks lower. I think they got oversold, and I'm trying to profit on them going back in. Warrior Met Coal. Let's see. [00:29:48] Speaker 2: I mean, I wouldn't buy this stock. It looks terrible, right? You're down here below the [00:29:53] Speaker 1: 200-day moving average, and it's not bouncing. What do I mean by that? Well, a very wise trader once told me, he said, "I buy tennis balls and I sell eggs." What that means is when a stock drops in a big way, if it is still in demand, if they're still buyers, it's going to bounce like a tennis ball. Right? They're going to take advantage, just like you would if a house or a car or something you're looking at suddenly went massively on sale. You'd take advantage and buy it, and the price would drive higher. If it's an egg, however, if a stock went from 100 to 80, and then nobody bought it for two, three, four weeks, it went splat on the concrete. It's an egg. There's no demand. Even at 30% off, there's no demand for it. And so this is not an argument of the fundamentals, whether the earnings are good, whether the future looks good for Warrior Met Coal. It just says right now, there's no demand for that stock. And, you know, as the stages would tell us, if there's no demand for it, it's not going to go up. That could change. It could absolutely change. But right now, it's not an in-demand stock. [00:31:05] Speaker 2: Same thing with Intel. Still holding down here. Let's see the index they're doing right now. NASDAQ kind of giving it up. Not quite as high. Now, what's leading here is the Dow. [00:31:19] Speaker 1: It's sitting at all-time highs. And this makes a lot of sense, right? What's leading the market? Shipping, energy, steel, retail. What index are those stocks in? They're in the Dow. It's the Dow Jones Industrial Index. The NASDAQ 100 is a tech-focused index. Those stocks are under pressure. How about NVIDIA? I mean, personally, I think NVIDIA is pretty long in the tooth. You got a $5 trillion company. One that really hasn't gone anywhere in a year. Okay. It could go higher. Is it going to double again from here in the next 12 months? No. There might be 20-30% on the upside if it sets up. But let's go back here. Just put this in log scale. Look at the previous rallies at NVIDIA. Okay. Here's a breakout here. It ran 80%. Here's a breakout here. It ran, again, 80%. Here was one. It went up 50%. Here's a little breakout over in here. It ran 30%. The last one was kind of right over in here. It ran like 20%. So they're shrinking, right? The momentum, the mass of these moves is declining. And that's pretty much par for the course. The stock is worth $5 trillion. Okay. So I mentioned JIN. Yeah. I like JIN here. In fact, you could, well, get a little gapper. You could probably buy this here. I'm not seeing the volume yet. Only three minutes into the market. I'd probably work a stop, but eat this little swing low. It's absolutely setting up. All right. We see the big rally. Then we get a consolidation. A little squirrely here, tightened up pretty nicely. So yeah, I think JIN's Bible here. It's a cybersecurity stock, which is falling off here lately that some of them come down, but still a very strong group showing leadership in the market. Made a nice bag on DFNS. Whoa. I bet you did. Yeah. I don't know what's going on. There's a very thin penny stock, but made a huge move. Good job getting some cash on that. SpaceX. Shocker. New low for SpaceX. How many of you guys have been following my videos on SpaceX? If you have, you don't own it, or at least you're waiting to buy it lower. I traded this thing live here. I told everybody the IPO, which came in here, go to 200. It went to 225. I said, this little rally would happen when it gets out of the NASDAQ. I said, then it's going to be nothing but selling. And we're on our way down below 100, probably to 50 to $80 a share. And so far, it's done exactly that. The selling is not over. It's going to get worse. Okay. They report earnings for the first time tomorrow. Their first earnings report. Heads up, they're not going to make any money. Okay. But that's not the important part. The important part is two days later, on August the 6th, the first big unlock happens. Does everybody understand how these unlocks take place? Let me show you a graphic that paints the picture of what you're up against with SpaceX. And think about this in terms of supply and demand. Okay. Most IPOs, when they go public, there's what's called a lockup period. It's usually 180 days, which is for 180 days, the early investors, the venture capitalists, the employees, et cetera, cannot sell for 180 days. SpaceX did a different approach and they created kind of this ladder, this stair step unlock. The reds that he unlocks. And so what it says is following the Q2 earnings release two days after, which is again, going to be Thursday, August the 6th, 20% of all SpaceX stocks get unlocked, meaning they're finally free to sell them. Now, if you do the math on this, okay, by the way, there's 7% tranches coming through out there. There's another big unlock in November and then December. So you get this massive selling, but let me just show you the math on this. Okay. Let's do some very [00:35:42] Speaker 2: quick math. SpaceX is at today currently worth, what's the number? 1.4 trillion. Okay. One. God, I don't know if I can put all these numbers in there. Nope. Three more. That's the value of SpaceX. It's massive. It's a country. Okay. [00:36:14] Speaker 1: They did the IPO and they sold 555 million shares, right? Everybody applied for it. You got some shares. Total amount of trading right now is 85 billion. [00:36:29] Speaker 2: Okay. So 85 out of 1,400. [00:36:38] Speaker 1: This is 2% of SpaceX. That was the total IPO. That's how many shares are out there in the market right [00:36:44] Speaker 2: now. Okay. In three days, they're unlocking 20%, 10 times this, right? [00:36:58] Speaker 1: Now it was 85 billion. Now that is probably worth, let's see, 135. So it's going to be, this is really actually today worth about 60 billion. So they're going to unleash a massive amount of supply of shares. Now, all 20% are not going to sell. Some people are going to hold, but a lot of these people are venture capital firms who bought equity in 2016. They're up 10, 50, 100, 200 times their investment. They want their money. They're up huge. Some of the biggest private equity returns in all time. And they're going to sell whether stocks at 130 or 50, they're going to sell. And so under 60 billion in the market now, let's just say 10% of this comes. [00:37:47] Speaker 2: Okay. Another $300 billion worth of stock hits the market and it can't go up when they're 60 billion. [00:38:03] Speaker 1: They're going to sell a 300 billion into that. There's no demand. There's no demand. Now it's 60 billion worth. There's no demand. The demand cannot meet the supply and supply is about a 5X. What do you think is going to happen to this stock? Folks, it is going lower. I would stake my life on this. It is going lower. Some of this is being priced in, but it's not going to magically double while everyone is selling. It's just not mathematically possible unless some mysterious trillion-dollar buyer shows up and wants SpaceX at 70 times sales with a forecast that it will not be profitable until 2035 with $84 billion a year and new debt needed every year from now until 2034. Like SpaceX will be a great, it is a great company. It's exciting. It will be the biggest company in the world one day. I fully believe that, but not today. It's not there yet. They have not earned a dollar in profit and they won't for a decade. Investing means you put money into something, you take some risk and you're rewarded if you're right. Okay. So right now is the money losing company. It's very cheap. I buy it. They start making money. Their sales go up. I'm rewarded. Buying SpaceX today or a month ago or in May is paying a price the stock should not be worth until 2030, 2035. Does that make sense? It's not that it's a bad company, but the price doesn't make sense. It's like if you found the perfect house that you want and they're asking $17 million. I love the house. I don't $17 million love it. It's way beyond any comp in this neighborhood. It doesn't make any sense. This stock is trading at a comp above everything in the neighborhood. Okay. So this is why I'm so bearish in the short term on SpaceX. My target for the stock is $58 a share. That may end up being high. Now, there are some things playing. In fact, I got a video going out today. If you notice, Tesla is also trending lower in a big way. And this happens all the time. As soon as Elon loses focus or the market thinks he's lost focus, it sells off. Remember early 2025 when he went and did the Doge team? He's in the White House working on fraud, waste and abuse. Look what Tesla did during that time. These are the exact months that he was in DC working with Trump trying to hit the fraud, waste and abuse. The stock sold off. What's he been doing the last couple of months? Focused on SpaceX and the IPO and the markets punished him. Okay. Now, margin to slip. There's other things. There's fundamental reasons as well, but this is a trend we often see. The magic is going to happen when they merge. And again, I still don't think it's time to buy SpaceX today. I still think you should pay half of what it's trading for right now, but one day they're going to merge. They're going to be worth a lot of money, etc. Okay. Jack. Everybody's asking about Jack in the box. I'm still long, Jack. Okay. I have not sold anything. It's doing well. If you guys missed it, I did a big video on Jack back over in here talking about why I thought it was a great undervalued opportunity. It was $14 at the time. At the same time, it got added to the Russell. It drove up. It retested. It's now ripping higher. What's happening in Jack in the box is something known as a short squeeze. Okay. 35 to 40% of the shares of Jack are held short. Many people are betting against it. Why? Why are they betting against this company? Well, a couple of things. One, they've been getting destroyed. I mean, it was a $100 company two years ago. It went down to 10. And a lot of people, they're betting on a stock to fall apart. It's going to bankruptcy. It's going to survive because it's got about a billion dollars in debt. Now, it happens to be trading at a very low multiple of sales, meaning it's very cheap if they survive. They got a new CEO who was the guy that turned around Taco Bell and saved that company who's going to try to fix things. They pushed their debt maturities out to 2029 to give them roughly four years of runway to get the company turned around, to get the profitability back and the sales up and get some things working for them. So it's a risky stock, but they're not in danger of insolvency anytime the next few years. On top of that, do you see a familiar pattern on this chart and why I might have bought there? Let's extend this out. We talked about this earlier. What does a stock do that finds a bottom? Well, it comes down, it shallows, and it compresses. There's a little wiggle. We're going to buy it right back up, right? There's your breakout. It ran. Where did it pull back to? [00:43:14] Speaker 2: Right there to what was resistance that is now support, right? So it is following this pattern to a T perfectly, right? [00:43:27] Speaker 1: So what is my target on Jack? My first target would be up here at $20 to $23 a share. Why that target? Again, supply and demand, right? Where's the supply? Where's the next area a bunch of people might want to sell this stock? Well, the last place a bunch of them bought the stock. Everyone who bought December and January and February over in here have been massively underwater. Imagine you buy a stock at $22. It falls to $10. By the grace of God, it comes back. What do you do? You sell. You've been underwater for a year. You're just happy to get a break even. That creates supply, okay? So beyond that, if we get a real short squeeze, we get a GameStop situation, and if they start posting any real positive news, right? Same store sales ticked up. Their margins went from 4% to 4.5%. Any improvement in the fundamentals, and the stock's going to start rallying, because it is priced on failure. Built into the price of the stock is a big bearish bet that they're not going to turn it around. So any sign that they are makes value buyers come in, and it makes short sellers panic and go, "All right, we're wrong. It's not going to go to zero. Let's take our profits." And here's how a short squeeze works. When you are buying stock, like for example, we bought this at 14, right? We bought it here, and our goal is it goes up, and we sell, right? Buy in, sell out. Real basic, okay? If you're a short seller, it's the opposite. If you're a short seller, you borrow the stock from a broker, you sell it to get in, and your goal is to buy it back down here and capture the profit. So you borrow it, sell it for 20, buy it back at 10, hand them the shares, you take the profit. Now, how does that lead to a short squeeze? Well, what happens if the stock just starts flying? And now you went from being positive to losing money to losing a lot of money. You got to get out. Forget it. I'm out. What do you got to do to get out? You have to buy. And so the short sellers, people are betting against it, are then buying the stock and paying it to close their position at the same time that the buyers are buying the stock. And so it puts fuel into that fire. Everybody is buying it, and that's what causes these short squeezes. That's what happened to GameStop back in 2021, right? If you go back here and look at this chart, remember that? That crazy move in GameStop? This is the biggest short squeeze of all time because they had to buy it and buy it and buy it and drove it up. Now, if we look at it in logarithmic scale, however, notice how you would have been in this thing, okay? Look at this pattern you see here on the chart. Let's draw this out. Same thing we've been talking about all morning. Big move from a dollar to three. Huge demand. It just tripled. Something's going on. Let it shallow and compress and tighten up. Absolutely perfect breakout pattern. Where's our buy? Right there, okay? So you've been in this stock at five and it went to 120. This is in logarithmic scale. This is what it actually looked like. Okay? So this pattern I'm trying to teach you today is not about like, I don't even know where I'm going with that. It's just, it's purely about supply and demand. And it's the same thing, whether they're right or wrong, whether it's a stock, whether it's crypto, whether it's copper or crude oil or rare Beanie Babies. Same thing. This is simply what happens when demand exceeds supply and a supply begins to shrink. And if you looked at a chart of the housing market, for example, let's just pretend this was the housing market. It's not. But if there was such a chart, what would you see? You would have seen a big run up in 2020 and 2021 as there's huge demand for houses and mortgage rates are very low. You'd see a couple of years where prices start swinging and then get tighter and tighter and tighter. And then you'd see what we're experiencing now, which is the second wave breakout as prices, you know, push the upside. And so this is applicable across the board. Now, one of the, the bets I've been, or one of the areas I've been very bullish on all year long is the copper market. And this is copper futures. Okay. And I think this is setting up to be a monstrous move in copper. There's fundamental reasons. It's a, it's a huge component of these data centers and all the electrification of everything. It's it. There's a, a, a systematic, uh, shortage in supply in the coming years. It takes years to get a copper mine up to market. Plus copper's, you know, really hasn't done a whole lot the last several years, but look what we're seeing here. See the big move, a couple of handle breakout. This is forming into what I call a base on base where it went, wasn't quite ready, steps right back in and it's getting ready to break out again. So you've got all the energy at a last year coiling up here and we could absolutely see copper go from six and a half to seven and a half, eight and a half, nine and a half, et cetera. Just like we did with gold, just like we did with silver, all form the exact same pattern. And so one of the things I'm watching now is copper stocks. So this is copper futures. [00:49:09] Speaker 2: Look at Southern copper. They were still a little bit early, but are you seeing this, [00:49:14] Speaker 1: seeing how it's consolidating here? So we had the big run up and then it's just been kind of, you know, chopping along in here. Hopefully does something like this. That's going to be a huge move. They're a big copper miner. Copper goes up, you know, 30, 40, 50%. Their profits are going to double and the stock's probably going to double. We saw the same thing over in here. See the big base is coming in. It shallows, it tightens, it breaks out here, goes from 100 to 130, tightens up again, right? They're all a little bit different, [00:49:47] Speaker 2: but it's the same idea. Right? [00:49:54] Speaker 1: So this is an area very bullish on. And notice we're not using any indicators. I'm not looking at some magical red line, green line, you know, flashing dart nonsense. The chart is telling us everything. Freeport Mack Moran, the biggest copper miner in the U.S. Very similar. Put it in log scale to even this out. See the similarities? See how you had the big run and just this, you know, multi-month consolidation, big run, multi-month consolidation, right? Setting up to go higher. Now, things can change. I mean, we don't know. Things change all the time. We get a once in a generation pandemic. One of the big hyperscalers goes under. I mean, sure, things can change. But right now, the market is seeing this setting up higher. And what we have is about six months of big funds consolidating and building positions in Freeport Mack Moran. Cut Bay Minerals, another one. Yes. Great pick. We actually bought this stock and you can see why. Look at how cleanly this traded. Okay. Look at the consolidation. Big run from nine to 18. That's a double. Consolidates. Breaks out. We bought here in our service. Ran from 18 to 28. Look where it bounced to. Look at the retest. To the penny, the previous breakout area, right? Now you might go, well, if you bought it there, Ross, it came all the way back down. Okay. This is true. I don't care. I got a 57% in 50 days. I'm going to sell some. As soon as it breaks down this trend here, [00:51:25] Speaker 2: I'm out. I'll buy back in here. So it's a structure all based on supply and demand. [00:51:38] Speaker 1: And so it's a way to go. All right. I don't know. I don't want to read all the fundamentals. I don't have some great insights. I don't want to look at, you know, what's this stock or what the future looks like at their output or their earnings or, you know, I'm just going, what are they buying? What are they not? A lot of people mentioning alloy. Yeah. Hadn't been a good, I mean, [00:51:57] Speaker 2: it made a good run, but this one, look, this company, let me show you. [00:52:07] Speaker 1: This company does not make money. They don't even have sales. Look at their sales quarterly. This is $0.7 million. The whole company, $700,000 total dollars in the door. Some of you bring in more money than that. Okay. They're losing money every single year. If the company's worth 680 million. So it's a speculative play. You can only trade this on supply and demand. There's no earnings. There's no nothing, which means it leads to becoming a story stock and you get is it'll break out runs higher and you get violent moves at a downside. So you might find a perfect opportunity that makes a huge move. Doesn't mean you hold the thing until you retire, right? Listen, the stocks you just buy blindly and hold forever are good companies with a history of compounding growth, big earnings, big sales, growing sales, growing profits, your Amazon's, your Netflix's, your Apple's, right? No one's going to stop buying iPhones. You're going to get a new iPad in three years, your conks out, right? You're going to keep subscribing to Apple one and all this stuff that's consistent recurring revenue. That's why the stock, [00:53:15] Speaker 2: you know, has done this for the last decade, but the opportunities come when you get [00:53:26] Speaker 1: these moments of supply and demand imbalance. When the stock sells off from 250 to 175, it comes in and it shallows and it tightens and it breaks out, right? [00:53:41] Speaker 2: This is where you have some kind of an actual edge in that stock. Retest, right? See how this all comes together? Questions about any of this? [00:54:00] Speaker 1: Now, if you are not already a member, I don't know what you're waiting for, but make sure to go to tradewithross.com and get signed up. Right now, we're doing these over YouTube. Last year, we had to pull them and go to Zoom because I got a strike on YouTube. I have no idea why, but we do another live Thursday session with my analyst every week. You'll get access to my weekly newsletter that goes out every week. You're going to get that in your inbox. You'll have access to this market health indicator. You can apply to your trading view charts. You'll get a couple of bonus reports when you sign up. Tons of stuff there. Again, it's just $5 for the whole year. So again, tradewithross.com is the link to get signed up for that. And I promise you'll get your value out of it. If you are going to get 10X out of Apple, take your 30, 40% profit and find the next shiny toy. [00:54:54] Speaker 2: Bingo. Exactly. 100% agree. BYRN. [00:55:02] Speaker 1: So BYRN, I think still a good play. From when I did that video, which was what, here? It's up 25%. This is an interesting one. Obviously from a technical standpoint, it's not quite there yet. They have been really oversold. They've got a really interesting product. [00:55:32] Speaker 2: Hold on. I'll show it to you. [00:55:39] Speaker 1: Where is it? Here it is. It's called non-lethal self-defense. Now, I'm in Alabama. We hold lethal self-defense here, but some people don't want that. Some people don't like guns. Some people don't want to kill another person. And I, I, I suppose I can understand that. So this is what they sell. Um, [00:56:02] Speaker 2: these look like guns, they shoot pepper spray at like a 50, 50 yard range. [00:56:08] Speaker 1: And the case for this is that there's a market for it. Is it as big as Smith and Wesson's market? No, but there are people. This is perfect for, uh, you don't need a license to carry one of these. You can, you don't need a license to buy it. They're 50 state legal. It gives people, you know, a level of self-defense. This one, I don't think many people get, that's more of a law enforcement version, but it's called non-lethal self-defense. And what happened to this company is suddenly they couldn't advertise, right? Our business, uh, uh, as, as online, you know, anyone in online e-commerce, a lot of people, the primary thing is they're running online ads. And that ad features something cool on Instagram or Facebook, you click it. Oh, that's cool. And you buy well, Facebook and Instagram and their big platforms wouldn't let them advertise anymore. Cause it looks like a gun. You're not allowed to advertise guns. And so the company has been, been really punished, uh, for that. They're trying some new things. It could be a good turnaround, you know, again, from a technical standpoint, is it ready? Probably not. I mean, what I'd like to see from a technical standpoint, I, yes, I do still own this or I do, I did buy this for those, those wondering, I bought it over in here when I said, I did, um, you know, we got to, I would love to see something like this that would really set up a place to add on, but it's, it's just a cheap value stock. I believe is oversold with a product that I do think has market share. And I think they're going to solve their advertising issue and that's going to put, you know, make this company worth a heck of a lot more. I mean, listen, the, the, the whole company is worth a hundred million dollars. Okay. A hundred million dollars. They do. Let's just look at the last four quarters, 35, 65, 95. They did 110 million in sales last year. You're getting the whole company for one time sales, right? So yeah, this is, this is a bet. It's a little different than the technical stuff I've been showing you. If they don't get it together, yeah, it'll be a zero, but I don't think that's going to happen. And I think it's way, [00:58:12] Speaker 2: way cheaper than it should be. All right. A lot of other stocks here. Thank you, Jason. Kind of you to say, or we even AMD ahead of earnings. Yeah. These are going to be interesting to see what happens [00:58:33] Speaker 1: in earnings reports. They're, they're reporting on Tuesday. This is one of those stocks that Leopold Ash and Brenner is very heavy in. I think it got oversold in here. It is bouncing pretty nicely off the low. That may not look like much. Okay. [00:58:49] Speaker 2: But that is a 32% move since Wednesday of last week. [00:58:56] Speaker 1: And we're seeing big volume come in there, whoops, AMD. Yeah. AMD is looking a little less convincing to me. I don't know what the earnings are going to be, but see how we're coming in and then loosening and loosening. See how the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, uh, um, volatility is widening. Like what I want as a stock with a volatility is tightening. All right. I want to see less retracement. I want to see a harder to buy. That's when it usually releases. Okay. When I see the opposite, when it's coming in and tightening and then, uh, oh, now it's one. It's, it's, it's, it's wedging the wrong way. Right. So I, I, I'd be less inclined to buy this one. That's true. Somebody said his financial advisor told him the person who made the most money in the company is a dead person or old people who forget. Yeah. One of them did. I want to say it was fidelity. They did a study like five, six years ago. They looked at all their client accounts and found which ones got the best performance, which ones did the best in the marketing. You know what it was? They're dead clients. The best, the best accounts as a whole were people who were dead, weren't touching it. Second best group were people who forgot they had an account. So there is absolutely some truth to that for the act that the average investor who just sits still tends to do better than a person in and out, in and out. Um, I disagree with that for me personally. I think it works better doing what I'm doing and trying to get these nice little head knockers and move on. But the average person, yeah, just bounces in and out and doesn't do very well. [01:00:38] Speaker 2: Uh, Vera, let's see. [01:00:42] Speaker 1: Oh yeah. Bear is getting murdered here, which is too bad. You know, um, they're not all going to work out. That's why stop loss are so important. You know, that's why I always tell y'all risk seven, eight, 10%. You lose 10% of the stock. You're fine. You'll fight another day. You lose 40, 50, 80% of the stock. It's going to be much harder to come back from. Um, Oh, good job. Jack in the box. Yeah. They haven't been outlawed yet. Dem states will love to ban this. See, I disagree, Jason. I think Dem states will embrace this because you know, they, at least they claim to hate guns. No one should die. Even a guy breaking into your house and robbing all your stuff and could hurt your children. Don't shoot them. Don't hurt them. Poor societies. Give me a break. Uh, they're getting shot in my house, but they would much rather get shot with pepper spray than a, than a, than a nine millimeter hollow point, you know? So I, I think you're wrong there. You could be right. I just disagree. And that's again, what makes markets, uh, what's going on with S Y N R. Are they dead? Looks dead to me. I don't know what this is, but there's nothing, uh, under S Y N R [01:01:56] Speaker 2: snow. Wow. Yeah. Stuff like going back in a big way. So a lot of these software stocks got really [01:02:05] Speaker 1: punished, uh, the first half of this year. And the reason is very simple. Agentic AI period, hard stop. That's what it was. Okay. AI comes out. Agentic AI that you can say, Hey, build me this software platform, pull this, make a, make a spreadsheet, put it on my computer, check it every hour, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. It was a man who the heck needs software? Who's going to pay these enterprise software prices? They just build their own. And so a lot of these stocks sold off, but the whole sector sold off. And some of these companies are really good. One of those is now, which somebody mentioned before, I did a video on this, uh, a while back, the CEO of NVIDIA came out and said, he thinks this is going to be a trillion dollar company. It's worth a hundred billion. That's nine X from here. Um, there's a software layer of AI, but for reasons that even I don't fully understand, it doesn't really compete as much. Um, and so this is one of those stocks that sold off the, the, uh, cybersecurity stocks are another great example, right? Palo Alto networks. Um, this thing sold off the first half of the year, like all the others, right? Went down 35, 37%, but then AI started breaking out of sandboxes and hacking into servers. And every company goes, okay, we need protection. And they all ran to Palo Alto networks to get it. That's why cybersecurity is having a day and look, you know, Palo Alto. I mean, you could buy it here, but I'll tell you what really looks strong for Palo Alto is after the big run, huge demand comes in, get our consolidation, tightens up, breaks out. That's going to be a huge opportunity if, and when that happens. Right. Um, Melly and team, let's see. [01:03:53] Speaker 2: Yeah, this is perfect. I think you could buy it right here. This looks really good. [01:03:58] Speaker 1: So what are we seeing in Mercado Libre? Everybody see that pattern? Now big downtrend. Okay. The stage four decline. How far I'll tell you, they go 50 to 80%. Well, 43%, not quite 50, pretty close, but look what we've got since then. See how we've come down. Nope. Wasn't ready. Excel coming in, tightening up beautifully. Little handle there. Trying to emerge today. Now it has earnings on Wednesday. So you're really jumping in front of a train here, but it could pay off. Uh, but yeah, it's probably perfect. And Mercado Libre fundamentally is, is one of the best companies in the history of the world. Like they have grown their sales. [01:04:45] Speaker 2: Uh, I forget the exact rate. Let's see something crazy. 40% year over year. [01:05:04] Speaker 1: Anyway, I saw something. I thought that it said like as a first company ever to, to grow revenue at 20% a quarter for 20 quarters straight or something wild, but yeah, the fundamentals are really good. I mean, look at the, uh, look at the numbers here, right? Look at the sales. 5 billion, 5.3, 6, 6.8, 7.4, 8.8, 9. Like this is quarter to quarter that they're steadily rising. But you know, like growth stocks do, they get priced based on the assumptions of future growth. If that growth rate slows, they then get punished and returned to value. It then comes down to stage four, gets in a new stage one, becomes cheap and value and gets accumulated and then starts a new stage two. So it's just, it's, it's, it's yeah, setting up perfectly. I think it looks great if [01:05:52] Speaker 2: you're interested in the $1,900 share stock. The old shoot them in the leg theory. Yeah, exactly, Matt. [01:06:03] Speaker 1: But some people like my wife, for example, I think would be too shaky to even grab a gun or pull the trigger. Wouldn't be thinking, let me aim for his leg. She'd be closing her eyes and just pulling the [01:06:13] Speaker 2: trigger and hopefully the, hoping the, uh, it stops. C limited. This looks great. Yeah. So C limited. Online gaming, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Where's the market cap? [01:06:30] Speaker 1: 65 billion. Okay. So a nice little, it's a large cap stocks, not a mega cap, but yeah, when you see this, right. When you see a company, this is not a turd, right? Not some fly by night, no sales, no profits, but a decent company with, with, with, with, with real sales, real profits coming in big ones, five, six, seven billion dollars a year. Okay. You're, you're the real thing. And it falls 60%. You know, it's a stage four decline. You don't buy it here on the way down, but you say, all right, when this thing, you know, finally bases out and runs, it's going to be great buying opportunity. And I think that's probably here for C limited. See how the final sell-off was here immediately bought up. Your first sign, big, nasty earnings drop that day. They buy it right up from 80 to 90 and it comes in and just kind of shallows and consolidates for March, April, May, June, July breaks out here, shoots from 100 to 115. It's a 15% move in a week and a half, not nothing to shake a stick at. It then pulls back to what? The exact retest of the initial breakout area. And you know, you might draw this here, you might draw it, but you know, kind of this $9,800 share level. And I need to see it bounce. This is probably the lowest risk place to buy because you buy it here. All right, I'm going to risk 5%. It's either going to bounce or it's not. And so far it has. If you bought it here at 100, it's at 108. You're up 8% in a week and climbing. [01:08:04] Speaker 2: See how this comes together? [01:08:10] Speaker 1: DXYZ. Again, pure supply and demand case. Why did it rise in May? Well, they had a big position in pre-IPO SpaceX. All the basement dwellers wanted SpaceX. You don't know anything about the stock market or valuation or supply and demand or stock stages or anything else. They drove it up, went massively too high. It came all the way back down and guess what? It's going to happen again. You know why? They got a big position in Anthropic. Okay. If you look at the Destiny Tech 100 [01:08:40] Speaker 2: and we look at its holdings and pull this up. [01:08:48] Speaker 1: What is now 18% of this fund? Anthropic. Is Anthropic public? No, it is not. That's what this company does. It's an ETF that buys pre-IPO equity in companies, right? So when Anthropic is doing a $300 billion raise, they don't call Ross Givens, right? They don't want my $500 grand. They're looking for somebody that can give them $20 and $30 and $50 and $100 million, you know, billions of dollars. But these guys have a big portfolio. So they buy these private stakes in companies. They bought a pre-IPO position in SpaceX. It was worth a heck of a lot more before SpaceX got cut in half. And when Anthropic goes public, it's going to be the same thing we saw in SpaceX, although not quite the same degree. There's going to be a huge demand for it. Clawed is huge. I use it every day. It's probably the best model out there, I think, in terms of general usability. And this is a unique way to get access. They've got 18% of this fund is in Anthropic. It's at pre-IPO prices. Once Anthropic says, okay, we're going public. We filed our paperwork. We're going to price it here, etc. People are going to go, okay, how do I buy Anthropic? And a bunch of people, the everyday person doesn't know a lot about the market. It doesn't know what a sales multiple is. It doesn't know it's a fair price. It just goes, I want Anthropic. I saw a YouTube video that said DXYZ owns Anthropic. I'm going to buy this. And we're going to see the same thing again. [01:10:09] Speaker 2: Hopefully, you know, we get, this one is pretty ugly, but you see the same idea here. We get something like this and it goes from 30 to 70 in, you know, four or five days. [01:10:27] Speaker 1: Some police agencies have left lethal weapon along for situations into a temporary disability. Yeah. And that was a big part of their, their, their, their sales so far are those law enforcement ones, right? The law enforcement, uh, uh, uh, law enforcement agencies, but they're really pivoting to the everyday person. They're really trying to sell this to, to people with a, a daughter going to college or somebody who, you know, uh, a woman or very frail man who, you know, works late and has to go kind of a dangerous area. And people just like, look, I don't want to kill anybody, but I also don't want to get mugged and murdered and everything else. And so that's, that's kind of what they're going for. I think it's going to work, but again, it's a risk, right? But this is what a risk should look like. This is what an investment is. You're going, all right, I'm getting this thing for very, for one time, their annual sales, right? It might not work. Maybe the marketing doesn't land. Maybe it falls apart and I'll lose my money. That's the risk part. But if it does work, if they do see good profitability, if they do figure out the marketing channel and the sales grow, then my money will double or triple or quadruple. That's how an investment is supposed to work, right? If SpaceX today were trading at, you know, five or $10 a share, most people would say it's a no brainer. Elon Musk has a 10 year track record of delivering fantastic returns. He's pulled off things no one on earth ever thought was possible. The space, you know, sector is new. I don't know what's going to happen. But I think they're going to get profitable in five or 10 years and they're going to see sales rise. I think the internet is going to be the, you know, Starlink is going to be the go-to ISP provider. And I think the stock will be worth 10, 20 times what it is now. That's the investment side of it. But the problem is today, most companies do exactly this one, the IPO. And it all has to do with a Sarbanes-Oxley Act. You see, there's not going to ever be another Microsoft or Amazon or Apple, a company that goes public and goes up 10,000% because the mechanism has changed. Back then, you're a little company in the garage. You're worth $10 million. You need to raise some money to expand. So you go to the open market, you go public, you sell a quarter of your company, you take that money and invest it and grow and expand. And the investor rides the trend higher with you. Now, it's different. Sarbanes-Oxley, in an attempt to protect the everyday investor, made it so effing expensive to be a publicly traded company. All the regulation, all the purporting requirements, all the red tape. They said, well, it costs too much. It's not worth the money we get unless we're worth billions. So income, everyone's least favorite people on earth, the private equity investors. Well, they go, you don't have to report that stuff to us. I'll give you the billion dollars you want. We'll do this. We've got experience. We'll tell you how to grow the company. Don't worry about going public and dealing with shareholders and all that crap. Just deal with us. We'll give you money. And they do. And all that growth, the early Microsoft, the early Google and Apple days, [01:13:37] Speaker 2: all happens while the private equity guys own it, right? This is not really to scale. More like this. [01:13:49] Speaker 1: And so what happens is once the private equity guys have done all they can and pumped as much debt into it and got up and running and everybody knows about the company, then they go, okay, we want out. All right. We need to get our money out. That's when the IPO comes in. They go, all right, let's, let's do an IPO. Let's, let's make it a publicly traded company. We'll all get our exit. And so they hire these investment banks. They go around and do a roadshow and tell everybody how great the company is. They brag on the sales and the sales and the sales. It's not profitable yet, but it will be. No. And so they dump it on the open market. So your opportunity to buy it at the IPO, which you would have had back in the nineties, if things were there was here and you would have seen a massive run. Instead, you got it after the stock already went 20, 30, 50 times higher. You're their exit liquidity. 95 out of a hundred IPOs are terrible investments on day one because their job is simple. How do we maximize our return? How do we get our money? And that is they priced the thing as high as the market will possibly accept. And with SpaceX, unfortunately, their edge was the everyday person doesn't know anything about this stuff. They don't know what it should be worth. They don't know what a $1.75 trillion valuation is. They'll pay anything because they love Elon. They think SpaceX is cool and Tesla did well. Let's pump this sucker up. And so they sold it at the public at a price that no reasonable investor would pay. And then it hits the open market and the reasonable investors come in and the short sellers get short because it's overvalued and the Buffettites and the value said, that's crazy. I'm not paying that. And the supply comes and the stock falls until it does get cheap at a price that would be reasonable to invest in based on the current sales and profits and reasonable assumptions of the future. So that is what happens. That's why the everyday investor has much less opportunity in terms of new public companies than he did 20 years ago. But if you go back and look at the IPOs of all these public companies, you're going to see a very similar pattern every single time. Put this in a logarithmic scale. Look at that. This is when Meta went public in 2012. Now, in hindsight, yes. Okay. Today, based on that IPO price, yeah, you'd be up big. That's true. [01:16:20] Speaker 2: But look what happened first. All right. Trying to open this thing up. There we go. It fell from 44 to 18. It fell 60 percent, [01:16:37] Speaker 1: peak to trough. Because what Meta was actually worth when it went public for any reasonable investor was down here. They rode the hype. They dumped on the public. They sold it off. It came down. And then look what we got. Nice, clean base break. There's the initial entry. Got a nice little burst. Wasn't apparently ready. Sold off some more. And then, you know, started the real run higher. And the best opportunities to buy Meta were, okay, oh, look, it just made a huge move. Okay. Let it compress and shallow and tighten up. Okay. I'll buy it there. There's your breakout. Right. Big run. Jallows. Right. So anyway, I do think, I do think SpaceX is a, is a good investment. Just, just not at today's price. And that's, that, that's why I think it's going to fall in a big, big way. Now you might say, well, Ross, it's already down from its peak. 50%. Yeah. But This was record retail demand. It never should have gone to 225. I think it's going to fall, [01:17:49] Speaker 2: because it's from the IPO price. And, and you know, the nail in the coffin is all of this, [01:17:57] Speaker 1: all the supply that's going to be hitting this stock, the 20% unlock taking place on Thursday, the 7% tranches every six weeks between now and October, the 28% unlock in early November, the full expiry in December, all this selling coming into the stock or potential selling. And listen, I get it. I see the videos. I see y'all's comments. Oh, they're optimistic. They believe in the company. They're going to hold this. No, they're not. No, no, no, they're not. Okay. Some of these people, their cost basis is a dollar a share. They sell it a hundred, they make a hundred times their money. If it gets cut in half, they still make 50 times their money. Right? So they're going to sell. You can, you can be a diamond hand. You can, I believe that's great. Congratulations. I feel great for you. You're probably gonna be proven right eventually. But if your goal is to make as much money as possible on SpaceX, then the way to do that is to buy as much as you can as cheaply as possible. And so my advice would be, I shouldn't say advice. What I'm doing is waiting until the stock is bottomed out. Because if I can buy, listen, if you, if you want to buy it at 150, good for you at 50, you can buy three times as many shares, same amount of money invested. You're gonna make three times the money, right? We're talking about Jack. What are we going on with Jack here? Oh, there we go. Ryan, baby. Good. Nine percent. Let me see. I think I'm down to a, I only got like a thousand shares left in this thing. I think I accidentally got stopped. I made a bonehead [01:19:38] Speaker 2: mistake. Oh, it's showing my cost. So here's what happened. So I bought it here and then put a stop [01:19:50] Speaker 1: loss. I went on vacation. It literally tagged me out right here, added more, added more. And it's for some reason calculated my cost basis at $18, which is obviously not possible since it hasn't been to $18. Um, so I'm actually long from $14 and $15. I don't know why it's doing that. Uh, I wish I still had my full 3,000 shares from original, but yeah, it's doing great. And I'm, I'm not down $500 on, on Jack. I don't know why interactive brokers does this. It's like a wash sale thing. So if you bought multiple times, it, it, it, it calculates your cost basis. So what it's doing is going, all right, well, you bought it here and you sold it and you bought more here and here and you sold it there. And so we're going to add that to your cost basis from the 14 to 15 by, and it just looks all funky, but yeah, this thing's ripping. See what we [01:20:40] Speaker 2: got on a five minute chart. Oh yeah. Big move. And this started out this morning. Okay. Yeah. That's great. How many guys own Jack in a box? A wash sale. Yeah. Thanks to relic. And it washed also dumb for me. I don't hold anything for a year. I'm not trying to cheat the tax code and, and, uh, wash out. [01:21:10] Speaker 1: All right. Yates, Thomas, Scotty, 500 jack. Good. This could be big. Might not be. Could be. All right. All right. There's always risk. Don't, don't just set this and forget it and check on it in six years. All right. If you start getting that pump, I would consider taking some profits here in the low 20s. That's what I would do. You can do whatever you want. You can, you can hold the thing forever. It might run to 50 or 60. I do not know. Okay. If this becomes a real short squeeze, when it's a real short squeeze, you're going to see stories in the financial press. You're going to see it on the news. They're going to be talking about it, right? You're going to see volume go way up from, from both people buying it and short sellers covering it. So that's what you want to look for to see. Oh, we could really have something, but yeah, so far doing really well from 14 currently back at its high 1786. So for all my haters in the comments, I said, Oh, Ross pumped this stock. He's moving the price. He's manipulating his viewers. He's actually quitting them. Yeah. I don't think so. Okay. We did this video June 29th. It's August 3rd. The gain is holding and climbing. Our research was right. Our analysis was correct. The short squeeze is beginning to play out. Let's see what's happening. Uh, where should put a stop on Jack? I mean, depends on your goal or when you bought it. I definitely don't want to see it back down here. Okay. This was the initial breakout. These were the retests. It's run all the way back to the high. If it gets back down here below 14, I'd be very cautious. Um, if you want to just really choke it off, put a stop at the, at the, at the little consolidation low here from last week, right? If you want to say, okay, I'm in from 14. I don't want to let it go, go away, you know, or put half the stop here and half the stop down here. Um, the other thing most people neglect on these is selling into strength. Everybody sells into weakness. Everybody's got a stop loss. What to do when things go wrong, but whatever things go right, what if it surges? And that's one area where I, I, I do think I'm a little bit better than the average trader. I do plenty of stuff wrong. I got plenty of weaknesses, but one thing I'm pretty good at is taking profits when they're on the table. And so if this thing does this, right, I'd be looking to get out of some and you're gonna say, but it's at the high it's going straight up. Why would I sell? Well, because I've got a big supply zone and this thing is whippy. And if it runs to 22 and it pulls back to 18, you're going to look like a God that sold here at 22, that wouldn't sell at all. But let me tell you two words that will answer 90% of your buy and sell questions. You ready? Sell half. Ross, I'm up big. I don't want to lose it. Sell half. It's going down. I'm starting to worry. It's not really hit my stop yet, but it's sort of rolling over. Sell half. Okay. If it keeps going up, you're going to be glad you still have half. If it craps the bed, you're going to be glad you sold half when things were good. Okay. In an ideal world, you get a hold of a GameStop and you're you're roaring kidding. You hold your whole position and it makes your whole life. That happens once a decade from one guy. The traders who consistently knock down profits are taking profits and taking profits and compounding their edge. They're keeping losses tight. They're nailing down profits on the table and they're constantly looking for new opportunities. Okay. All right, guys, let's go ahead and end the session here. We're supposed to go an hour with an hour and 25 minutes, but I just love talking to you guys. You all have great questions. I can look at stocks all day with you, but I do have to get back to work. Excuse me. But if you're not already, make sure, click the link, tradewithross.com. Get signed up. It's five bucks. On that page will be a link to put in your trading view handle and email so we can add the industry strength indicator to your account. Once you do that, you just go to indicators. You'll look up TA industry strength and you'll be able to add it to your charts. Okay. Other stuff in there, the newsletter, all that's going to come with it, but click that or going to tradewithross.com to get signed up. And otherwise I will see you all next week. Thanks everybody. [01:25:27] Speaker ?: Thank you.