The 3 Most Important Stock Market Charts Right Now

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: city sucked yesterday man it was raining it's it's november so we're already past the point of no return so basically like if you don't know anything about new york city every day from now until the end of the year gets progressively worse and then the worst day of the year is new year's eve and then it gets way better then the city quiet down yeah but you you were right next to brian park check out the village dude i actually tried to get an uber from that corner oh my god what a nightmare stay out of new york city there's no reason if you don't have to be in the city don't do it and if it's raining oh it was a disaster yesterday anyway the podcast was fun what's hilarious is that spencer israel gets a shout out in the pod steve strass that didn't we couldn't get to strass's charts there was too much talk about this wang guy yeah this guy's nailing everybody and we just didn't get a chance the question we've been asking everyone is how many [00:00:53] Speaker 2: girlfriends is too many girlfriends i mean you can't have three girlfriends you can't have that [00:00:59] Speaker 1: many girlfriends it's exhausting dude i have one wife that's more than enough like i'm good i don't [00:01:05] Speaker 2: need any more yeah jc said it yesterday he said how many more are there at least one so that we know [00:01:12] Speaker 1: about that i remember one time there was this club we used to go to down in coconut grove called valentinos and this was like i was like 20 years old so i was like dating multiple girls i was a single guy like whatever i was just going on dates doing anything i walk into valentino's on a thursday night ready to party there's like three of them in there i'm like i gotta go i can't stay here this is gonna be bad i gotta get out of here too many girlfriends it's too you can't have that it's not [00:01:34] Speaker 3: it's not okay i i just hope that i am i just hope i'm half as vibrant at the age of 63 as jensen [00:01:42] Speaker 1: wong i mean josh's theory listen to the podcast i'm on the podcast yesterday compounding friends with josh and michael and josh's theory is that all these ceos are pumping themselves with testosterone [00:01:51] Speaker 2: right yeah and they're horny he's right they must be incredibly horny it's true it's true they're all [00:01:57] Speaker 1: doing it to like stay young right and like keep their like edge or whatever like that's josh's theory there's i don't know anything i don't know any like billionaire ceos look at jeff this guy's 80 [00:02:07] Speaker 2: years old but that guy i mean holy cow who these guys taking he's not 80 he's like it is he's like in his early 60s right or 50. he looks younger now than he did 30 years ago he does though he does [00:02:21] Speaker 3: though he kind of looks like the man now he kind of looks like it looks great it looks great yeah all right let's do the state of the markets all right all right [00:02:39] Speaker 1: all right what's happening here i like the cold opens we got the dow jones industrial average which is the world's most important stock market index 52 670 52 670 up 280 points this morning um on news this just in that nvidia is not the whole market nvidia is not the whole market this just in uh s p 500 futures up over half a percent at 76 60 76 60 for the s p 500 think about how high that is nasdaq 100 also half a percent 143 28 2008 and a quarter 30 your bond futures pretty muted this morning 105 and a half on the zbs crude oil 88 and a half flat today copper flat 616 gold flat 3900 even silver at 50 flat also not much going on outside of equities here uh as you could tell a dollar dollar pretty flat also here with the volatility index uh just under 18 still uh pricing in a percent and change per move in the s p per day so uh we are uh still skipping uh cryptocurrencies uh in the morning uh rundown uh but bitcoin down uh over two percent of the day back under 70 000 back under 70 000 [00:04:01] Speaker 3: yep so what stands out from this morning's futures from the futures uh nothing uh from just a mover standpoint you had a couple interesting reports last night you had cerebrus which is up uh 11 this morning uh although it's given given a little bit back here um in the pre-market session you had cisco which was up and gave it all back actually um and then some is now down but uh what else did you have you had you had you had applied materials last night that was interesting uh all these overnight moves i think are a match pretty flat so that's not not a lot there but um yeah so you got some names yeah you got some movers you got some some headlines overnight but nothing too nothing too crazy i mean you know you just ran through it and major indexes are all up what a half to two-thirds of a percent so it's pretty quiet out there a little sell-off oil is flat i mean uh gold's you know it's quiet [00:05:07] Speaker 2: you have a little sell-off in microsoft on this uh a little bit office outage you got a little pump [00:05:14] Speaker 1: and tesla yeah i heard outlook was out yesterday i think it's still out i don't use microsoft products so let me it's funny because i heard it from multiple sources that it was out since i don't use any of those things how else would it could have possibly affected me out of [00:05:29] Speaker 3: curiosity no i wouldn't it wouldn't what are you talking about but a lot of people use outlook [00:05:34] Speaker 1: i don't use outlook i don't use uh word excel i don't use any of those yeah it didn't affect me [00:05:40] Speaker 3: but it affects millions of people got it so then this is the most popular like suite of professional [00:05:47] Speaker 2: and and like corporate or business products dude that must suck i have to use those things huh [00:05:53] Speaker 1: no it sounds good for like nerds but like not even anymore right dude first of all the microsoft [00:05:59] Speaker 2: office suite is far superior than what we use here we used to use it it was just easier google docs [00:06:05] Speaker 1: google slides microsoft is far superior product for what i need it's not um we have times where we still have to go to excel we use it sometimes oh because you guys are building like fancy models i'm not doing any of that you guys are doing that for me you know like you're you're not even doing that [00:06:21] Speaker 2: either uh that's been done for asd premium over the years chad says it's back chad says it's back [00:06:28] Speaker 1: so we're all good spreadsheets dude we are right so all right uh can we um all right so you know what stood out for josh the most throw up slides seven and nine so yesterday on the pod um the the podcast i think is already out but you got to listen to the watch the video so you can see all the charts [00:06:48] Speaker 2: yeah these ceos i like i like his testosterone theory they're all hopped up on ketamine and blue [00:06:53] Speaker 1: choose yeah he says they're all doing it he says they're all doing it um so first of all josh didn't know that the theory was that ai was going to kill the indian economy because they don't need any of the it anymore like he had that even hadn't even crossed his radar um that shocks me so that i'm like not only did that already happen but now we're past that and india's already making new all-time highs saying that that was bullshit so like let me just we are on to the second level thinking we've moved on from the we've moved on so he missed that whole thing in india so like josh has like i guess like the people he talks to like don't talk internationally at all is what it seems like to me and then you go to the next chart and he specifically sees this london hitting all-time highs and then the next one uh especially this one uh sorry did i not include the uh [00:07:40] Speaker 2: where's the um india has made zero progress in like five or six years okay but it didn't crack [00:07:47] Speaker 1: it like it came all the way back oh here throw up the new slide too oh whoops isn't 30 drawdown and we're like 10 off the lows uh we're almost at all-time highs on the nifty uh 500. so this was the chart that josh dot was he's like dude there isn't a single soul talking about the most uh the broadest measure of european equities that there is which is this is equivalent to the s p 1500 this is the euro stock 600 making all-time highs josh is like there isn't a single soul on the planet talking about this because i thought that wasn't i thought that was interesting because kind of reiterates a little bubble that we're in and you know like like to me this is common sense uh but to somebody especially josh who talks to a lot of different types of people than i do and he's like nobody's talking about this i think this is really i think that's really interesting it's because no one cares about europe [00:08:40] Speaker 2: and the reason no one cares about europe is because these stocks have underperformed forever and even with the s p 500 struggling recently europe has still underperformed in a gross way all year this year these stocks couldn't outperform it i don't know what has to happen for these stocks to outperform when it comes to europe in this market they should be able to still not where where technology [00:09:05] Speaker 1: is uh is is a laggard you think that europe should should be an outperformer they should be able to figure it out but uh europe look at the world defense for gross europe 50 is up six percent for the year uh [00:09:17] Speaker 2: germany is up 2.7 for the year think about that yeah i mean vgk was making new lows relative to the s p 500 [00:09:29] Speaker 1: just a couple weeks ago canada's up 12. canada's outperforming the s p 500 uh and the dow for that matter s p is up 11 so far year to date energy's up 46 year to date technology's up 21 healthcare's up 22. uh the worst performers are communications and consumer discretionary communication is actually [00:09:49] Speaker 2: the only sector that's down this year market's making some good progress out here trying to prepare the damage you know jc that level that you talked about yesterday is still very much in play [00:09:59] Speaker 1: here all right here yeah these are the levels very much in play we are right there i think [00:10:06] Speaker 2: you're getting a big move in one direction or another one as soon as you as soon as you really see that next big momentum i think you just go with it i don't know if it's up or down but i think you're getting a big move here i think it goes up would you say this is the most important chart right [00:10:20] Speaker 1: now you know in the short i'd say bigger picture the most important chart in the world is the s p bank index like bigger picture uh as far as like now like between now thanksgiving like right now this has to be it has to be right straza gotta be yeah it's not even close and then throw the nasdaq throw the nasdaq so you can see what the rest of the nasdaq 100 is doing not just semiconductors and it got back above there already last week or really mostly this week and so that's the leopold low back in july yeah nice little shake and then the fellas yesterday on the podcast i brought this chart and they were like that is not a line in the sand it's just some random line i'm like all right i guess we'll see [00:10:59] Speaker 3: but every a line in the sand is by definition random right because sand you know it's meant to be [00:11:10] Speaker 1: it's totally randomly the leopold low totally randomly all right they didn't acknowledge the the polarity in this zone uh you know you know how they are all right you know like they love all the cmt's and like they're friends with us and stuff like that but they're like hey you know what about the earnings dude the entire first 10 minutes of this podcast is talking about forward earnings i'm [00:11:33] Speaker 3: like oh my god somebody shoot me i haven't gotten there yet i've only got i'm up to i'm up to the nerd in conversation which is i didn't get very far clearly dude uh but it's good man these guys do [00:11:44] Speaker 1: a great job they got a great operation there i'm super proud of them uh they're just absolutely killing it the red holds guys really really killing it i dropped i dropped the link in the chat on [00:11:53] Speaker 3: youtube if you want to check it out oh the youtube's out now already some some shout outs in the chat [00:11:58] Speaker 2: hold on about some of these intermarket headwinds that might be rearing their ugly head again uh the dollar has had a really really big move for the last three sessions and it finally hit the bond market yesterday rates rip and we're back above five percent pretty much across the board and tlt got slugged down [00:12:15] Speaker 1: one and a half percent you have a credit credit spread narrowed all week here's the thing if bonds [00:12:22] Speaker 2: are getting wrecked here dollars are ripping it makes it harder for all these big levels that are in play to get a bullish resolution now going up all year if these trades come off in a good way you get a bounce in the euro rates cool down a little bit then i like the risk on more offensive ideas [00:12:41] Speaker 1: normally i'd be with you the math disagrees the dollar has literally been going from the [00:12:46] Speaker 2: lower left to the upper right all year yeah it's been a year for risk assets [00:12:52] Speaker 1: s p's are up eleven and a half percent it hasn't been a good year my friend okay i'm just telling you eleven the s p my phone is up eleven eleven percent i'm just telling you i know i know i know this is i mean that's i don't know it's above average year last i checked [00:13:05] Speaker 2: ask any trader it's been a it's not about asking a trader it has nothing to do with asking traders [00:13:10] Speaker 1: i'm just telling you that it's tough to make the argument that it's a bad year for stocks in the face of a rising dollar when the s p is up eleven percent and the dollar's been going straight up and if you would ask me a year ago how's the stock market going to look if the dollar's going straight [00:13:23] Speaker 2: up i said not good look i'm just telling you you know it's easier for me to navigate the market when there aren't all these failed situations and distribution patterns that might be massive tops and then end up not being massive tops that creates transaction costs slippage agreed and and a mess in trading accounts that's all i'm saying that's happened now twice this year so that [00:13:43] Speaker 1: with traders positive because it with me jc listen i i get it trust me you i've been there i understand um just for the record uh the median stock this year uh for this being such a terrible year for the stock market uh the median stock is up over 10 percent this year the median stock s p is up 11 [00:14:11] Speaker 3: median stocks up uh 10. there's a lot of pain out there okay you're what you're saying is true but what steve's saying is also true okay i'm not disagreeing with steve okay just adding some uh [00:14:23] Speaker 2: some additional math in case uh math means anything to you i do like this little bullish divergence in the euro though got my eye and the positioning's off the charts dude yeah we were talking about this [00:14:35] Speaker 1: in the trading room yesterday dude i got my muse i got my muse sending me the commitment of traders report charts i have my muses making its own charts i'm pretty sure that my muses commitment of traders report charts are the greatest that i have ever been invented no if you're not using muse can i just make a public service announcement can you take you two off the screen you too spencer hi seriously people listen to me i listen to me i never do this i love you guys you guys been watching the show for a long time i don't do this i'm doing it now okay muse has been out for two months ish i've had it for i've had it for about two months maybe it's been out like 10 weeks something like that came out in september if you're not using muse this is meta's agent ai agent if you're not using muse every day that goes by you are falling behind okay i don't do this i you've never seen me do this i may never do this again but i'm doing it today download the muse start asking your questions it's just an interface but it helps you build the brain that in the future if there's something better than muse you could just use that interface but the brain of data that you're building through muse can be used for the rest of your life you own the data layer muse is just the interface and maybe it's the interface you use for 20 years maybe and maybe you use another interface but all of the things that is helping you build can be plugged into any model it's your data it's you it's very personal you're not going to read the newspaper anymore you're not going to watch podcasts or tvs anymore it's going to bring it's going to come to you when you want it how you want it and i'm telling you right now if you are not using the muse every day every day that goes by you are losing and you are falling behind i know the instinct some 23 year old kid raising hundreds of millions of dollars every month sure knock yourself out you want to give them access to your text messages and all that done but if you're for real and you don't want to play with that cute little toy and you want to play with something real that's actually going to have a major impact on your life go download the muse right now they're not paying me for this i don't give a about meta or zuckerberg i got no i'm not i don't hate against them but i'm doing this because this is you guys trust me to a certain extent you're here right so i'm telling you right now go download muse and every day that goes by my wife is listening because i want her using it too she's busy she's bringing dunkin donuts she's busy i want her using it too and i've been building her an agent she's gonna use it she's a stubborn one my wife just start just start okay i'm done it's all i got i mean what do you want what do you want from me guys what do you want from me guys are we back are you guys just leaving me here hanging what are you doing i'm sorry can't hear you where's your mic you turned off your mic everybody's gone i was reading a book sorry yeah i'm back i'm telling you right now guys save that clip and a year from now we'll be like oh you know what that crazy cuban was right or i should have listened to him all right i guess we'll see [00:18:14] Speaker 3: hey not not not for nothing but uh tradeable low here in meta i i'm i might just take it in my long-term account and just be done with it because um dude bargov shivarthi a couple months [00:18:27] Speaker 1: ago was like bro bro your muse is gonna win bro that's not what he sounds like that's not what he [00:18:34] Speaker 3: sounds like i don't do a great indian accent man what the yeah yeah can we can we give a shout out how about the intraday action in nvidia yesterday oh my god this is kenny's dream come true i don't know if uh kenny's joining us today i think he might be out i'm not really sure but uh what a day yesterday it was it was it was vintage it was blue line to orange line it it broke the view up for the day when it went oh eventually we went it went to the view up of the prior day and uh what a rip off the open so shout out to uh to all the day traders who were buying nvidia yesterday you had a good morning in a great morning um and then by 11 o'clock it was over and that was that but uh what a bounce so there will be more headlines of course nvidia has earnings on tuesday um there's going to be doj inquiries right this is all you would assume the doj stuff is priced in but never assume anything so don't really know but more headlines are coming there is more smoke um is that the low don't know but something to lean on right 148 something to lean on for now until it isn't you know uh i i thought i thought the one was in i thought the low of uh was 165 i thought i thought that was it it was not [00:20:00] Speaker 1: well that was the close we closed above that yesterday uh that's true yes so we'll see if they get any follow-through uh you know semiconductors are flat this morning and video on its own is actually up almost two percent so you're gonna get a gap up in nvidia at the open in half an hour it looks like and the indication right here is 169.17 169.17 puts it above the close puts it above the close from november the 10th which is uh tuesday puts it above that close yeah um you know that's uh that's a big one and then on the uh on the smh throw up the smh one more time so you can see the smh the leopold lows there so that's when that fund blew up that was on the uh july 29th and so that is right around 500 and change right the low of that day on smh was 50 360. and we closed right there yesterday or right there so that's a big one that really is a big one guys uh we start getting above 5 10 5 10 5 12 we start getting in that area i think she's gone i think nvidia is probably gone i think amd is on its way to [00:21:23] Speaker 3: do all time gone gone meaning the train has left the station like moon gone like moon yeah gone gone not like gone like bankrupt gone like right right right gone in in in a good way if you're long gone [00:21:36] Speaker 1: long gone a lot of investors are long right i'm not long like tactically but like sure i have like old index funds and retirement accounts and kids college funds there's i'm sure there's plenty of nvidia in [00:21:47] Speaker 3: there right uh yes i'm sure you like everyone else is overweight i'm not gonna do anything about it [00:21:55] Speaker 1: it's just what it is so like i i'm rooting i'm not hate you know what i'm saying unless i was shorter tactically which i'm not yeah yeah you know i'm not gonna be hating um i brought some magazine covers uh to the show yesterday you want to throw that up were you able to get to them i was able to get to them we started talking about bonds here drop slide 12 there started talking about bonds so they loved it i actually brought the magazines with me got them here somewhere i can't even read what that says yeah throw uh yeah there you go so that was the 1974. so i brought this magazine this is the newsweek big bad bear you know the one in uh the one in 60 the one in 65 the 1965 low there whenever there's a chart on the cover of newsweek go up the next one there whenever there's a chart on the cover of newsweek you got to buy it right good example you got the dollar down [00:22:50] Speaker 3: back in uh i can't i can't look at this chart i'm having a seizure jesus christ that chart has given me a seizure to look at the 1966 chart the candles are weird the candles are a [00:23:03] Speaker 1: little bit weird you know the data the old school data is a little bit like you know it's a little bit rocky all right so there's a 95 you know us dollar with an arrow going down on the cover of time that was literally the low uh go to the bitcoin one look at the 26 look at slide 16 look at the bitcoin one that was literally the high meanwhile bitcoin's like at the same price now that it was then i five years [00:23:26] Speaker 3: it's it's been five years of essentially flat price action we are we are right now where we were five years ago so that's that's great what a shitty just shitty return for bitcoin you suck bitcoin just fantastic and [00:23:41] Speaker 1: then so uh 1950s this was back in uh 58. uh they like this one because this was pretty old school so this one in big letters says the recession [00:23:54] Speaker 3: how deep how long as it turns out there wasn't one that green circle encompasses like half a year of data no it encompasses three months so the center of the circle is where the [00:24:11] Speaker 1: fine a quarter of data yeah the center of the circle is where the date was all right and uh you know just some dollar one so anyway we had fun with throw up slide 22 there it's like 22 they like the bowling bubble one i brought the sports illustrated from the bowling bubble of 1960. they didn't know there was a bowling bubble i was explaining to them it's like yeah they were they were trading this the like uh brunswick and these other bowling stocks were trading the multiples were multiples of adult hours a week that were bowling and so it was a huge bowling bubble 1959 1960 and then as it because this is when they discovered that the machines could lay out the bowling pins instead of like a human so that was like all the rage and then so like everybody's betting on uh everybody is uh is betting that these bowling stocks are going to keep going on forever and then as it turns out nobody nobody gives a about bowling at all and nobody nobody wanted to bowl and so the stocks just completely crashed so they thought that was cool they didn't know about that [00:25:12] Speaker 3: um one of my favorite bubbles here i'm gonna drop a link in the chat this is a a long thing i haven't finished it yet i've been reading it for like on and off like a week but um it's about identifying market bubbles and one of the things that this article talks about i'll drop the link in now is when they start inventing new uh metrics such as multiples of adult hours spent going right um or in the case of the dot-com bubble uh like time spent online eyeballs right eyeballs exactly or clicks right the the price the price to click ratio or whatever the hell they were doing in the dot-com bubble so i just dropped the link in the chat that link actually leads to a much longer thing than i'm about halfway through but it's really going to read on on exactly what you need to have a bubble you need a few different things um and again i'm not finished with it yet so i don't i don't know what the conclusion is for right now but our adventurer is going to say we don't have all those things right now because we have some of those things not all those things so check that out the link is in the chat um we do have louie here and let me get his his slides in the deck real fast um uh do you guys talk about the perpetual [00:26:24] Speaker 1: futures at all no no on the podcast yeah no they would they would throw something at me oh bummer all right they're financial advisors they're not trading perpetual futures fair enough all right i [00:26:39] Speaker 3: do got louie let's bring him out and uh see what's going on in the world of tokenization always new things always need to every single seriously every week every week there's new headlines about this thing [00:26:54] Speaker 1: blue dog how's it going what's up what's up i i feel like i'm bowling now dude not for nothing bowling's super fun you know uh for the brunswick to be up 1600 percent uh probably not justified but i i [00:27:20] Speaker 4: get down with some bowling you know a couple of brews you know yeah yeah it's um you know every time i go bowling i'm i'm always the guy that's when i don't know i don't know if i have have just like the build for it the build to be a good bowler but i just win every single game i feel like it could be one of these little hidden talents that i could be um leveraging a little bit more did louie the bowler and [00:27:41] Speaker 1: big lebowski is one of my favorite big lebowski and kingpin are like two of my favorite movies of all time so don't make i'm not hating on bowling just nobody gave a nobody cares about bowling i do i like it um how's the city terrible dude terrible what a disaster stay out of new york city and every from now until uh i'm going with the family i'm taking them to see the rockettes and we're gonna see some rockefeller stuff and it's gonna be terrible i mean hopefully the weather's nice but man weather was shitty yesterday it's crazy traffic what are you smirking about no new york in the [00:28:19] Speaker 3: rain is objectively a horrible place to be no doubt horrible yeah terrible place yeah it was terrible [00:28:25] Speaker 1: yesterday what are you gonna do listen i've had amazing experiences in the city over many many years yesterday wasn't one of them i had much more enjoyable time sitting inside with the fellas [00:28:35] Speaker 4: yeah that's all right that's quite surprising to hear that i mean last time i was in the city i just found it so intoxicating i just i i don't know why but i last time i was in new york city i just i [00:28:45] Speaker 1: like i said to you jc i i fell in love i fell in love it's different you first of all you were downtown if you were downtown yesterday in a cozy little bar next to a fireplace you know having some kind of like you know warm cocktail or something you know with some friends you'd have a lovely time i was on sixth and seventh avenue on 40s um the worst part of new york city in the rain in november you don't do that right so like yes if i live downtown manhattan or even where i used to live on the east side like it'd be lovely yesterday wasn't that what's up with this bitcoin man is it ever going to stop going [00:29:26] Speaker 4: down what a piece of this thing is uh you say it like it is jc um you know this this 80k level i mean re rewind the tape and i was saying this 80k level if we lose 80k all bets are off we lost 80k and this thing looks terrible and so what can i say there's just not a whole lot to do here at the moment [00:29:49] Speaker 1: uh zcash isn't working either just kind of consolidating side it doesn't look terrible though it doesn't look terrible holding it better than anything else uh just kind of you know above all those former highs from the last year just kind of in this no man's land like in the middle of this range probably from like i mean 18 to 46 and here we are in the 20s right yeah yeah um i mean there's only [00:30:12] Speaker 4: really i mean two or three cryptos that are above the 2021 highs that's that's crazy zcash and monero [00:30:23] Speaker 1: wow how about that how about that and what about um and then so and then so talk to me about the monero are we what you know walk walk everybody through what what it actually is the fact that they're just being delisted from all these exchanges which makes you like it more yeah i it's kind of like [00:30:42] Speaker 4: if a stock reports bad earnings or there's a bad economic print and instead the market goes up on that and so the market is you know we we we need to defer our judgment to to what's happening in the market right and so i i find it interesting that this thing this this cryptocurrency monero has been delisted from all these crypto exchanges and it's almost impossible to buy and yet this thing has been the best performer in the entire crypto market maybe excluding zcash and it's breaking out above its 2018 highs it looks it looks like the best the best chart in the entire world yet they're removing investor access and the reason why by the way they're they're removing access for people to buy this thing is because it's a privacy technology so if i were to send you monero jc it is impossible to track so it's an absolute nightmare for regulators the government they don't want to have this you can't even trade it uh i mean you can trade it on kraken so i think some people in the united states can buy it on kraken but like i try to buy it on kraken using my debit card and i got a call from my bank and i was on the phone with them for about 30 minutes justifying why i was buying monero they they're delisting it all throughout europe and yet again this thing is still going up so i i almost like that [00:32:02] Speaker 1: and then so i got the muse that's it's it scans through the hyperliquid on saturday and sunday mornings and then again like in the afternoon you know it kind of gives me an update on a list of different assets uh so it's really cool i don't even have to go to hyperliquid anymore and it just sends me uh just market updates just randomly which is super cool um but i'm still not seeing like you know when we talk about like being early in something and like something's gonna take a while when are we gonna say hey you know all of the transactions taking place on the blockchain are saving all these people so much money that there is more transacting on chain in the equities market that there is on traditional exchanges like it doesn't seem does it seem like we're getting closer to that moment or we're kind of just stagnant seems like we're kind of just stagnant i mean look that this [00:32:57] Speaker 4: this thing takes time right we still don't even have perpetual we're not it's not getting closer [00:33:01] Speaker 1: i feel like it's not getting closer it's kind of just the last few months just kind of a little [00:33:05] Speaker 4: sideways no no i i i disagree i mean the ctc is now is now allowing perpetual futures to come on short to the united states and so that that's a big one so as of when and yeah so so and why [00:33:18] Speaker 1: are perpetual futures what is that why why are the perpetual futures part of the tokenization though [00:33:24] Speaker 4: uh well perpetual futures are a little bit different they're they're 24 7 always on markets and perpetual futures on single stocks on indexes commodities uh fx are probably going to be here in the united states in about three months time it could be a little bit more it could be a little bit less wow coming in three months time and and spencer i'm not sure if you're in the background but i want you to show this example of nvidia because i just think this is an an amazing example here of just how accurate these perpetual futures markets are on hyperliquid do you have that chart spencer so here when the news came out of jensen's affairs this was taking place as the market was closed and so on friday nvidia closed at 186 dollars and 64 cents and then on sunday news of jensen's affair spread throughout and hyperliquid's 24 7 markets priced it immediately and right before the overnight session opened for the traditional nvidia market hyperliquid had nvidia at 181 dollars and 78 cents nvidia's first trade and the traditional stock market came in just two cents off that price and i find that phenomenal yeah this 24 7 market completely offshore managed to guess within two cents when the video was [00:34:47] Speaker 1: going to open on the overnight session yep 100 you know that's one of the things that has been so i mean i don't i don't want to say surprising but it's certainly been interesting the fact that even like when you had the spacex ipo you know you we have never seen an ipo trade uh you know before the ipo like you get like the indications and you hear and on the desk you get the whisper and you get indications but we never saw trading in real life that was the first like big major ipo where that happened and it was spot on exactly like what happened with nvidia so i mean i just think that further reiterates you know the arbitrage is there they're gonna are about any any money to be made there's enough liquidity to get that done and that that's just that's good for the investor it's good for everybody wins there i don't see a loser in that scenario who's the loser [00:35:42] Speaker 4: uh people that aren't the the people that aren't managing their positions and risk 24 7. [00:35:51] Speaker 1: i don't think they're losing because they couldn't do that they couldn't do that before and they're [00:35:56] Speaker 4: perfectly fine you you don't think you know i i think it is phenomenal that as an industry we've just somehow accepted that the market closes and that stocks gap and that i can own a stock and i [00:36:07] Speaker 1: can't yeah but louie it depends on your time horizon right it totally depends it totally depends i own unh calls that don't expire until december of next year that i have a free ride on for example i i'll probably even look at the chart of unh until next week maybe right let me let me let me ask you [00:36:31] Speaker 4: a question if you had the option to manage your position in the futures market around the clock and manage that risk 24 7 would you want to do it 24 7 or would you want to have a space where you just can't manage your position no i'd want to 24 of course and so i i think this is going to be a tremendous unlock and i'm curious as well agreed so if it's just not here it's not here right now well it's going to be here very shortly but if perp when when perps come on sure are you going to find a way to trade them like are you going to be trading them i mean a 24-7 market yeah but like straza 6x leverage yeah but more like straza more like straza not because of like you know i think [00:37:09] Speaker 1: this is such a great idea it's oh this is something new i want to try it out right like that's that's why straza has been trading the perps i haven't but when it starts becoming more i'll i'll just use it because maybe it's like muse and i'm like wow this just changed my life maybe and maybe it's like yeah i don't need to do this like this is fine i don't need to do this like i can trade oats futures if i wanted to i don't right like maybe this is like that or maybe like wow this has changed my life it's probably gonna be somewhere in the middle i you know i've never had something that i can say wow this literally just changed my life like mused it i could literally say that i don't think [00:37:49] Speaker 4: i i i i'm sorry to interrupt i i hear you talking about muse quite a lot i haven't even played with [00:37:55] Speaker 1: muse i mean you're not alone nobody it just came out a couple months ago nobody's using it nobody's talking about it you got instinct coming out raising hundreds of millions of dollars at crazy valuations every month from some 23 year old kid in san francisco it's a joke in comparison muses on a whole nother level it is unbelievable unbelievable they're not paying they should be you listening out there facebook or [00:38:22] Speaker 4: matter you listening do i need to cancel my cord subscription and buy and buy muse [00:38:28] Speaker 1: no muse is your chief of staff muse doesn't replace claude muse doesn't like i don't vibe code anymore i used to vibe code not anymore i don't need to vibe code anymore my vibe my my software development days are are long gone now [00:38:45] Speaker 4: it was a short jc had software software development days it wasn't a long period there where i was [00:38:51] Speaker 1: coding vibe coding with the clock there was a period i was doing i don't have to do that anymore because now i got the digital ocean and i got the muse and the github has all the instructions knock yourself out this is what i want today go code it up i don't have to do it anymore it was a pain in the ass i was willing to do it because it was sick but i don't have to do that anymore done so wrist in peace jc's software div korea thank god nobody needs me vibe coding like that the world's not becoming a better place if i'm spending my time vibe coding nobody wins there everybody loses [00:39:26] Speaker 4: but it was a good experience i know what i'm going to be doing this weekend then i'm going to be uh [00:39:30] Speaker 1: miss messing around with the toys i will send you a doc i had my muse create a doc where i could send it to my friends and so that you could be like hey look at what my idiot friend did i'm way smarter than him [00:39:41] Speaker 3: how can we make you know what i mean hey uh how do we get that that hoodie louie [00:39:48] Speaker 4: ebay you know you know the the the day that i was watching that ftx order flow coming in i was watching the order flow on binance and ftx and i just knew that that cz over at binance was just gonna i was gonna take this exchange underwater and i knew it was gonna happen so the first thing i did was one get all off all my funds off ftx because that was the primary platform that i was trading on and the second thing i did was buy a whole bunch of ftx merch because i knew this exchange was going to be collapsing in less than a week's time and so this hoodie is very special to me nice yeah that's a [00:40:20] Speaker 3: responsible order of operations one get the money two go buy shit that's good i like it yeah all right louis sykes everyone guys louis also uh by the way just this morning i think you published or maybe yesterday you published a uh a branding report sort of about your entire tokenization thesis i'll drop the link in the chat not to the report but to get access to the report um let me drop that link right now and uh there's a reason that louis is sort of you know he doesn't talk about the bitcoin price action as much as maybe he used to because that's not where the money is now right the money is in understanding this tokenization wave so here's that link that i will drop in the chat right now you can get access to louis you it was yesterday or this morning right that that that you just dropped this today [00:41:19] Speaker 4: did i make that up yeah no no you're right yeah a lot of volatility happening right now so it's important to to manage risk in the space and so that that's uh everything that i talked about in this report today managing risk and making money all right thanks louis all right cheers guys have a [00:41:34] Speaker 1: good weekend adios all right we we do have uh what a time to be alive spencer israel spencer's you're getting shout outs on the compound and friends no shout outs for straza we didn't get i haven't gotten [00:41:45] Speaker 3: that far yet i'll get there later uh we have larry thompson in the house let's bring him on in a second but uh before i do i want to make sure i didn't miss anything this morning um oh didn't we have some data i thought we had some we we did a data right uh we had so much data we we had the ppi i don't care about the ppi okay um ppi probably was was hot if it was half as hot as cpi uh so hot right now that's on so uh what else no it's actually kind of quiet out [00:42:20] Speaker 1: there we got some big movers stocks are flying and uh and nothing else gives a everything else is flat yeah a couple blocks are up but nothing else is moving that's it uh cerebris is the story of the [00:42:36] Speaker 3: day of 12 uh like i said that's uh kind of your big pre-market headline other than that no you don't [00:42:43] Speaker 1: need a facebook account to have a muse because i've never had a facebook account and i use this [00:42:48] Speaker 3: muse every day i think you probably have one now because they're doing like the whole single sign on thing so you you just probably made one for yourself i mean i have an instagram and a whatsapp right doesn't know i'm already in there so it doesn't matter um all right we got larry thompson here let's bring him out see what uh see what charts he likes right now if i could find my larry thompson bumper that'd be nice [00:43:13] Speaker 1: what up dude good to see you buddy how you living these days man it's been it's been a minute [00:43:35] Speaker 5: how's that daddy life dude it's good four months yesterday little man is just yeah i mean claps for the wife like jc i know you went on your rant about muse i will go on my rant about marry the right woman if you want to have kids like just don't even think about marriage or kids if you don't have the right woman in your life yeah she's she's a champ she's doing i mean you know how it is she's doing 80 of it i'm just support i'm just motivational speaker and uh don't don't kill me do the dishes wake up early get the dishwasher empty make the bottles do the whole nine so i remember the early morning bottles yeah yeah so are you guys are you guys sleeping a little bit through the night i'm sleeping he he still wakes up but it is what it is right you just gotta kind of [00:44:24] Speaker 1: yeah you just make it happen so yeah let him cry it out as soon as possible man never let him in your bed ever don't ever ever ever let the kid lay in your bed ever okay the worst the because that's it they're stuck it's the worst thing you could ever do don't let him do it that's good advice i'm not there yet but that's good advice don't ever ever let the kid sleep in your bed like zero times [00:44:49] Speaker 5: that's good advice i plead the fifth i plead the fifth yeah uh and then so uh all right so then now [00:44:55] Speaker 1: now you're yeah you're a father and so in my experience and spencer you feel free to chime in you know once you become a father like scientifically you're different there's different chemicals inside of you like you're literally a different different mindset but then you also like now you see it and you feel it and it's just different at least in my experience and so that that has helped me i would say and it's helping mature in the market itself i could assure you yeah i'm a 10 times more mature as a market participant on multiple time horizons post uh being a father than pre i'd love to hear any thoughts that you have now that you've been at this for four months yeah i think the big thing is [00:45:36] Speaker 5: kind of you still have time to i think pontificate as much which you have time to think about other things but i'm not i'm not thinking about a counter trend and what if as much i'm just letting letting the charts do the work more than ever when it comes to those types of things like the semiconductor chart looks like a short to me but i could be long next week if it gets above that key level right man you want a short semis it's just one of those i mean the average one's down 30 percent don't we kick them while they're down so it just so it's just one of those things like i think i'm spending last time pontificating like the nvidia story i'm not reading all the news headlines on nvidia i'm looking at you know the rs rsp the equal weighted s p 500 is near new all-time highs so it's one of those things i'm just i'm less and less interested in the stories and the narratives and that's i think that's why i got into technicals which i liked it for a long period of time i just i i don't have the time because i don't know people know that you're a cpa nerd yeah that's fair too i am a cpa so that's [00:46:39] Speaker 1: not a bad thing i make fun but it's not a bad thing to know accounting really well i can tell you as somebody who's had to i mean i was an accounting minor i guess uh so i mean i'm not like so stupid but i've had to like i've had to learn on on like in the job over the last 20 years you know right both as a trader you know and understanding what the hell these people are talking about when i thought that that's what i needed to learn and then also you know as running businesses you know you gotta you gotta understand these things and you learn great words like operating leverage it's one of my favorites operating leverage is a great one good one that's a good one and contribution margin see these are like my these are my favorite fancy accounting words how am i doing not bad right it's [00:47:20] Speaker 5: great it's great and i think the other side of that too is like especially if you come from it from like a data perspective like i work worked in audit for a long time you just learn about like the integrity of data and jcu got me like think differently than other people what are someone is saying this does the chart look like that right so you already have that natural skepticism and then the ability to quantify like that's the other piece i think when you become an accountant you love data numbers quantification and then you just apply that to the markets so it's helpful it's up and actually right now looking at the market the thing i would say is now like make fundamentals great again i don't know but fundamental stocks from the old school fundamental like cash flow businesses you can look at etf like flow i didn't bring them but look at flow look at cows look at calf it's those value names which for active managers if i'm an active manager right now i'm calling my [00:48:11] Speaker 1: client hold on time out time out you got you you got me on this one uh what is the difference between the cows and the calf uh large cap small cap so cows is is heavy cash flow larger cap yeah and calf cleverly named is the smaller cap version of that i see and they look great see you stopped me on that one you stopped the schwab on that one i'm pretty good and then there's you got me on that one and of course because [00:48:41] Speaker 5: of ets there's now a flow which i think is the top 100 so they choose the best 100 out of the 500 that are based flow flow flo that one looks good that looks good i don't i don't like the ticker as much [00:48:54] Speaker 1: as the other ones what's wrong yeah it's called flow who knows cash flow cash flow oh there you go [00:49:02] Speaker 5: i knew it was called cash flow because of that but i don't think it's made by the same company i didn't bring those i wrote about it i wrote about it last week flow yeah wrote about it last week cash is king but those are the stocks that are working which is like i said if i'm an active manager i love seeing tech underperform because this is when you can go to your clients and say this is why we're not overweight s p 500 this is why we've had that value exposure that's doing really well right now like value to [00:49:26] Speaker 1: momentum looks really good uh so yeah it's interesting all right throw up the equally weighted uh index that for the s p 500 that um that larry brought here the average stock in the s p 500 is up 16.6 this year 16.6 for the average stock that's twice the average annual performance for the s p 500 [00:49:47] Speaker 5: and we still have six seven weeks left 16.6 wow yeah i think i'm i'll tell you this i did pontificate last night and get myself down a bearish rabbit hole so i need you guys to pull me out i was knee deep in the bearish rabbit hole last night but looking at this chart right you can't argue with the fact that we've been in a range bound type market my question is is does this buck the trend and actually break out does equal weight actually break out does the average stock break out because what i see right now is what rsp looks like is what discretionary looks like it's what staples look like it's what financials look like it's what materials look like we've been in a range about market and four or five weeks ago they were at the bottom of their range they rallied now they're at the top of their range can they follow through and actually break out that's what i'm curious about with the equally weighted because like right now i'm not buying i bought a couple weeks ago spencer and i went live a month ago and kind of laid out all the stocks we were buying now those stocks are extended so i'm in this like yo-yo land of like the next two to three weeks i might not be doing much because we already bought and i know jc you were talking about like home builders and we're talking about discretionary but now those trades they're a little extended so if this pullback does build another momentum or another leg higher i'd love to see it but now we're just we're at the top of the range and we haven't seen breakout stick really [00:51:14] Speaker 1: uh broadly in the market rotation rotation rotation the past six weeks technology is down 12 discretionary is up 11. financials are up nine and a half right the dow is up three percent with technology down 12 percent that's just in the last six weeks and then if you looked at that august through october through september august september technology was up 13 with the nasdaq up almost eight and discretionary was down six industrials down six financials down six and then if you look at the two months prior technology was down 10 percent financials were up 11 right and if you look at april and may technology was up 45 yeah with others other areas massively underperforming and then in q1 technology was one of the worst sectors down seven and a half percent and it was energy leading the way yeah it's been the rotation the rotation rotation not this like lower left to the upper right but just churning underneath the surface and everybody gets a turn it's the what's your name the blue [00:52:13] Speaker 5: bonnie uh market what's her name what's her slide 35 slide 35 spencer he's going crazy i was actually going to go there anyway yeah i think jc will like this slide we haven't done this in a long time [00:52:25] Speaker 3: we haven't done a guess the chart segment in a long time no no let's not do guess the chart yet do the um [00:52:29] Speaker 1: you said 35 is it not 35 oh bonnie blue not blue bonnie sorry bonnie the uh the s&p 500 you're good [00:52:41] Speaker 5: this is exactly what jc's talking about right jc's talking about right this is this is painting a bearish story right i'm i'm being a little bit of a bear here but steve came on and said the market's been messy jc talked about year-to-date returns look at three-month returns in the s&p 500 they're down and the point is the rotation is occurring but because of the rotation from breath to mega caps from mega caps to breath you've seen this sideways messy market and what's made money is trading the messy ranges like you can't pull up a consumer discretionary you can't pull up consumer discretionary xly right now and say the chart looks beautiful it was a messy at the bottom of the range that's now trading at the top of its ranges same thing with financials they got to the bottom of the range they traded to the top of their range same thing with materials so the question is now that equal weight is back at these highs are we going to see that rotation again or is equal weight actually going to take the baton uh that's my question because the mega caps are struggling so it's you know what it is it's harder than it looks you know what it is you know what it is that makes it hard it's the dispersion [00:53:55] Speaker 1: in the dispersion yep massive winners and massive losers and then those massive winners and massive losers change roles and then they change roles again and then they change roles again and now they just change roles again and call me crazy my suspicion is that they're gonna change roles again which is [00:54:16] Speaker 5: so what do you do then do you then sell like are you selling discretionary here so no i think the [00:54:20] Speaker 1: stress has said his best treat each individual stock on its own merit don't overthink the macro that's what straza said and i agree that i couldn't have said it better that's why i'm quoting him because if i could say it better i would [00:54:36] Speaker 5: treat each stock in its own merit for sure i more so than ever do we do we have to do that in bull markets typically like like that's where that's where i'm being a little bit more in my head about this stuff is like you typically need to make these statements if it wasn't a bull market you would [00:54:52] Speaker 1: see stocks making new lows you you don't see stocks making new lows right every time they get [00:54:55] Speaker 5: close they rally so you don't every time they get close and every time they get close to breaking out they fail agreed that's right so a sideways market a sideways in some sectors not not in health care for example health care is the exception to the rule healthcare is the exception to the right yeah so one of 11. so i i'm struggling here i'm just i'm just talking out loud i have way more questions and answers at the moment me too always yeah so that's that's what's hard for me is because yes year to date if you zoom out and anchor to year today it's it's own the trend but like same thing i have a question for you jc what if we're five percent from all-time highs for five [00:55:33] Speaker 1: years is it still bull market well i i don't think that will happen obviously um you think you think [00:55:40] Speaker 5: there's a housing boom you got to think about that we got to think about what ifs here right if i think [00:55:45] Speaker 1: about a housing boom i got to think about the s p 500 staying within five percent of an all-time high for five years i think that's more realistic than a housing boom wow so everybody agrees with you larry everybody agrees with you josh thought it was an interesting thought i didn't think he was gonna [00:56:02] Speaker 5: it's an interesting thought but this is also an interesting thought like what if we're within five per like this has been three months of this you're not going to stay in a five percent range in the [00:56:10] Speaker 1: s p 500 for five years larry okay i would i would say there is 0.00 chance of that how's that [00:56:19] Speaker 5: okay i would say i would say if the unwind occurs the s p 500 could stay in a range if breath catches up and like you said if there's a re-weighting a real re-weighting takes place that would i mean you would lose a large period of time we would not make a new all-time high but we could trade in a range and it would be this rotation that we see so i'm just i don't know it's just i think i think you're [00:56:42] Speaker 1: going to start to see stocks making new lows i think that's i think that's the first thing to monitor do our stock do stocks start making new lows or not like that's it like it's not it doesn't have to be that complicated are we seeing an expansion in the new lows list or are we not and the answer is we are not not yet correct yeah fine yeah yeah not yet always not yet by the way [00:57:05] Speaker 3: sir all right i want to do this i want to do this guess the chart it's been a while uh where are we i'm gonna skip ahead there we go okay um is this an index this is a relative chart [00:57:20] Speaker 5: oh get the hell out of here this is a relative chart i mean i'll give you a hint we've talked [00:57:27] Speaker 1: about it on the show today um i mean it looks like discretionaries on a relative basis to what s p's [00:57:38] Speaker 5: spencer you got a guess no this is itv versus rsp oh i was pretty close there larry i was pretty close it's it's this uh jc's conspiracy theory trade versus the average s p 500 stye what's my conspiracy theory trade i'm teasing i'm just teasing uh the housing boom i'm calling [00:57:59] Speaker 1: it a conspiracy theory i'm not long any home construction we're having fun yeah we're having fun [00:58:06] Speaker 5: we're having fun this morning i'm just teasing but i was pretty close with my guess when i say [00:58:10] Speaker 1: discretionary is relative this is uh homies relative this is itv rsp correct yeah so for there to be a housing boom my suspicion is this line would have to start going up and i would say [00:58:24] Speaker 5: for people i would say you you being in the minority makes sense based on the charts if you have the thought of there being a housing boom so i would say it's [00:58:38] Speaker 3: yeah jc i don't know if you saw i mean i know you didn't see the headline yesterday that existing home sales are at reach their lowest point he did he did he did see [00:58:48] Speaker 5: that on the compound yeah i was wondering actually yeah i don't know what existing home sales is but [00:58:54] Speaker 1: as opposed to what is there a non-construction home sales as opposed to new home sales so if you sold [00:58:59] Speaker 5: if i sold the house i live in right now that's existing home sale construction is a yeah got it [00:59:05] Speaker 1: all right so is that why everybody's so bummed out about housing because of this existing home sales number the the rates the rates yeah right the the rates that are uh some of the lowest uh in american [00:59:16] Speaker 5: history those rates no not no you're anchoring you're anchoring you're anchoring the highest they're the highest they've been in 10 years yeah yeah you're angry no no no no don't say you're angry no no no no housing affordability and then the united states is a problem at the moment so [00:59:34] Speaker 3: everybody tells me yeah i guess we'll see what happens if there are no transactions it means people the buyers and sellers are pretty far apart do you think is it possible to for there to be fewer [00:59:46] Speaker 1: transactions hell yeah okay i guess we'll see i don't so i guess we'll see the boomers want two [00:59:52] Speaker 5: million dollars for their home give it to me on the discount homie just kidding all right can we talk about one more chart 37 can you go to 37 yeah i need jc to talk me out of my um oh i had some free time last night sun went to bed on time and i'm just over over analyzing all these charts so the what if game right we've seen the rally the past six weeks blah blah blah i love it too i'm i'm long the equal weights you can go watch our show with spencer we talked about it what if the move we've seen and say discretionary say even staples sure but we'll say the average stock in general is just a sympathy bid for rates coming down for a couple weeks and if rates continue their downtrend or bonds continue their downtrend is this right is that a short-term top in the average stock like we maybe we go high right we create a higher low but this is i think i think those bonds roll over [01:00:54] Speaker 1: and rates start making new highs that's a major problem for this bull market and it probably isn't [01:00:58] Speaker 5: one anymore how about that for sure that's just that's where i'm like it's hard right now to say i'm i'm putting on trades because i just think if this dynamic exists like i'm just staying in my health care i'm not adding health care today i'm just staying in the discretionary stock zone i'm not adding to them maybe if this smh chart cooperates i can get longer but if not i might you know sprinkle a little short be an etf or something but yeah just market's a mess in my view all right larry and i are doing [01:01:32] Speaker 3: a video later today that'll be posted tomorrow uh larry's going to talk about which semiconductor stocks he's buying instead of nvidia and isn't that funny isn't that funny jc and that's why i love [01:01:45] Speaker 5: what we do here i'm sitting here talking about maybe shorting smh but then i'm gonna talk today about stocks i'm long because time frame baby dude i was hating on actually these guys these guys were [01:01:54] Speaker 1: getting mad at me for hating on berkshire hathaway so much i was getting long it's been one of the best trades i put on all year i was hating the whole time but i don't think i remember getting [01:02:02] Speaker 5: coming on the show and hating on you and that's that's been one of the best trades you crushed it [01:02:05] Speaker 1: there and and i was just making fun of berger hathaway for deciding to raise a historic amount of cash in the middle of a raging bull market which obviously common sense is idiotic and despite that we were buying it buying calls i'm still on the common yeah it looks what has nothing to do with the other by the way golds are stupid shitty rocks that crashed this year started buying some of those [01:02:25] Speaker 3: last week too again berkshire wasn't raising cash they were just printing cash there's a difference [01:02:32] Speaker 5: right it's not their fault they own businesses that's a cash flow there you go that's a fundamental i'm [01:02:37] Speaker 1: sure spencer goes spencer goes to omaha for these things so spencer's like one of the fanboys not [01:02:43] Speaker 3: their fault they always get this is the print money at them it's not their fault you know what i mean all right he has posters of charlie munger in his bedroom i don't i wish i did uh i dropped the link by the way if you want all of larry's charts to drop the link to his newsletter thompson's two cents it is free the link is in the chat uh i'll see you later on today larry i will much love guys have a great day uh it's 9 36 time flies when you're having fun uh we're gonna hop out of here hope everyone has a great weekend check out our videos on our channel uh steven white soul did a video about when he would buy nvidia like what he has to see in the chart to buy nvidia we got a video going on on the channel today of jeff mackie his three favorite stocks for the holiday season um stocks you may not have looked at for a while uh then i mentioned the video with larry that'll be up tomorrow so a lot going on here on the channel busy week for us thanks for watching go make some money yellow responsibly enjoy your weekend adios [01:03:51] Speaker 1: you