Stock Market Bull Flag, Oil Wedge Apex (Explosive Move Coming), Bitcoin Below $81K Support

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Hey folks, welcome to verifiedinvesting.com. My name is Gareth Soloway here with your deep dive in the afternoon session on this Monday. So in today's video, what we're going to do is we're going to deep dive quickly into the NASDAQ, the S&P. We're going to look at oil, gold, silver, and even quickly at Bitcoin to try to give you a roundabout view of the technical analysis on these charts and what the likely next move is going to be. So this is going to be key guys. It's going to be kind of rapid fire. So get ready before we do that. Just a reminder, right here on YouTube, Gareth's top squad is where you want to be. I just did a live yesterday for members. They got a discount code for the options service on verified investing. Every week I do a new discount code just for those members. And obviously you see everything else you get. Epic discounts, exclusive videos, live Q&A, and swing trade charts. In fact, believe it or not, I gave them the beautiful chart of core weave late last week. I said, if it gets down to this level, that's a buy. Today it hits that level and rallied 10% off of that low pivot. It was a beautiful level, multiple factors, exactly what we do here at verifiedinvesting.com. So let's jump into the charts, taking a look at the NASDAQ. Now the NASDAQ, again, when you look at the daily chart, it just looks like a whole lot of chop, right? So let's make sense out of this chart. And what I want to do first is basically look at this and say, okay, this is a pivot point, right? It's about as clear as can be. What we had here was a gap. And you can even extend it over and you can see all this sideways chop here and even over here. But the easy way to look at it is basically you have this pivot point. 25,900 on the NASDAQ composite. Notice we hit it here, we hit it here, we hit it again on Friday and on Thursday of last week. And once again, the market has risen from the mat and pushed back to the upside. Now the question is, what happens if this breaks? If this line breaks, that likely sends us down to 24,425, this pivot low. It also, if you go out here, you can see it mirrors perfectly this little area right in here. That would be your downside target. Now, if we start to rally, obviously the upside level that we're going to watch is your all time high. But if we do start to rally and we start approaching that, you could actually see the NASDAQ go a little bit higher before it runs into resistance. And again, looking at this, this basically becomes a zone of resistance. They're both very, very close together, but basically 27,730 up to about 28, 27,885. And that becomes your big resistance level. So really, as I watch this week, I'm focused in on this level right here. As long as we hold it, I'm going to maintain a bullish bias on the NASDAQ, even in spite of the AI trade faltering. But nonetheless, you got to give the credit to the markets and the levels here. So bullish bias remains intact as long as we do not break 25,900 on a daily closing basis with confirmation. If we do, we head down to 24,450, we'll call it, 425 area. Again, upside target. You guys know exactly. All right. So quick breakdown, quick breakdown of the NASDAQ. I want to jump into the S&P 500 now and take a look at that. And basically, these have the lines that we've been discussing on it. So essentially, the bullish pattern continues on the S&P. You look at this and say, how is this bullish, right? Well, the answer is very simple. It's a bull flag, right? So we have a move up and then this sideways consolidation. In technical analysis, when you have this type of pattern, about 70% of the time, it resolves itself to the upside. If we do head up, our upside target remains right here above 8,000, just above 8,000, around 8,040. Right now, it is an ascending trend line. So we have to understand that it could go a little bit higher. Now, what would change my mind? Well, any sort of break below this this white trend line would make me very nervous because it would negate the bull flag. Basically, this is your flagpole. If you break below here, you're essentially negating the flagpole, which negates the bull flag. In addition, this is very clearly an uptrend, right? Uptrend, long term trend lines that have diverged, right? They were converging. Now they're diverging, which again, gives us a baseline and an upper resistance line as well. And then lastly, we have a short term zone, very similar to what the NASDAQ has. And what we see here is there's a zone here, which is also acting as technical support, right? You have this high, this high here, these highs right through here. Then we broke above it and we came down, we bounced, we came down, bounced, bounced, bounced. And once again, we're bouncing there. And so what's interesting here is if we look at this, we extend this out, these two lines meet by the end of the year going into 2027. So again, at some point, these two lines will merge into a support level. That's assuming the market hasn't broken it by then. Then we have just one level to worry about when it breaks, go bearish, go bearish, go big downside, at least that's what I'll likely do. Until then, I'm favoring your upside move. Now flipping over to the oil chart, as we take a look at crude oil here, the daily crude oil chart, again, with a down, a pullback today, not a big move, we're down just about a 1.5% or so. But again, if you look at the trend lines, high pivot, high pivot, high pivot, and we kissed it on Friday, we get the pullback today. Now it doesn't mean we can't break out. We could break out, but we don't know a breakout is happening until it happens. Once it happens, we say, okay, this is now broken to the upside. Until then, this is resistance. And I would anticipate a move down here. Now what's interesting is if we extend these lines out as well, right? Let's extend these out. What do we notice? By December, by early December, these two lines come together. What does that mean? Well, it means that inside of a wedge, you can only stay inside the wedge until it comes to a head. And then it forces price up or down. Which one is it going to be? I'm not going to pretend to know. But again, this tells us that we will likely have an either a major escalation. Get this guys, either a major escalation in the Middle East by early December, which gives it about a month after the midterms or a major deescalation. So something big is coming. Now it doesn't have to wait for the head of the wedge. I want to be clear on that. It could happen earlier, but basically by the time the wedge comes to a head, it has to happen. Essentially, at that point, price is going to either explosively break out or explosively break down. So be ready, folks. We're talking just over a month maximum until there's a major move in oil here one way or the other. All right, let's go to gold real quick and silver and the rest of these here. Let's take a look. Gold getting a small bounce today. Again, I've walked you through this chart. We talked about the breakdown here. It went right to this low base plate plate right here. Right now, we're getting a little bit of a bounce in gold. That's good. But what we have to monitor here is what type of pattern forms off of this base. Is it a sharp retrace and then a pullback and then it can go higher? That would be ideal for bulls. Or is this a new bear flag starting to form like this, which sets up for another move down? It's too early to know. We don't know yet. What we know is that 3,900 and change right here is technical support with these lows over here. Now we sit back and wait for the chart to guide us to what is the likely outcome. Looking at silver here, silver is struggling. Look at silver. So it's still flattish on the day, but it did touch Friday's lows bouncing back here. But again, silver is struggling. It is at major technical support right here. If this level breaks, you're going to 50 or sub $50. And really what I would say is this, guys, we have the Fed on Wednesday. You got tons of earnings this week. Then we also have the PCE on Thursday. Next week, the jobs data. The kicker for silver is going to be partially the safe haven trade, but that's about, you know, that's 50% or less. The bigger position here on silver is industrial, meaning the economy. And so as we get to see what the PCE data is, then we look at what the jobs data is next week. Those likely will be the driving factors. If oil and high oil prices and high diesel and inflation are slowing the economy, silver is going to have a very tough near-term move, probably to the downside. Going to have a very tough time going to the upside. All right. Lastly, I just want to touch on Bitcoin here real quick. Let's look at Bitcoin. Bitcoin has broken my key $81,000 level. That is problematic. Today, I was giving it a little leniency to try to get back above $81,000 because the breakdown occurred over the weekend with lighter volume. So far, Bitcoin is basically flat on day. It is not recovering to get back above this $81,000 level. What that does is it slowly starts to shift the odds to a move down to $75,500. All right. That will be our next technical level. So watch this closely. But again, the longer it stays under here, especially now that we're past the weekend, the odds are now shaping up to favor a move to $75,500. All right, guys. As always, I'm here for you. My goal is to always educate, give insightful guidance, teach day trading, swing trading, analysis, macro views. Really, that's the goal here is always to give back to you guys who spend your hard, valuable time watching me, who support us at Verified Investing. Thank you to Mike Gareth's top squad. Thank you to members of verifiedinvesting.com as well. You guys are amazing. As always, I'll be here for you guys doing the best I can. Won't mean I'm always right, but it's the best I can do, I will do for you. Have a great rest of your day, guys. Take care.