Traders Prep Sheet! Stock Market This Week: CPI, Earnings & Oil

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: Hey, folks, welcome to verified investing dot com. My name is Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist here. Now in today's video, we're going to start our prep work for the week. In other words, what is coming our way? Economic news, earnings news wise or earnings reports, as well as key moves in the pre market here. Meaning the S&P futures, where are they trading? Where's oil trading? Where's gold, silver, natural gas trading and really looking at the key levels on the S&P this coming week. So first and foremost, we're going to jump into the ES futures chart. This is again the 10 minute chart. So what we see is the S&P futures opened lower and a good sell off ensued. We aren't down a massive amount. Basically, if we go to the daily chart, it shows down about 23 points in the overnight here. Now the idea here is what's going on? Basically, to summarize it, you have more escalation in the Middle East. That's causing oil to rally higher. It's causing the dollar to also be a safe haven where people are running into. By default, that's then pushing gold and silver lower. So the strong dollar is having a negative impact on gold and silver. And you can see crude oil right now is trading up three and a third percent in the overnight here on the back of heightened escalation in the Middle East. At least between the US and Iran. So right off the bat, as I start my prep work for the coming week, I need to know what are the key headlines. And the first one that we have is that things have escalated a little bit. Therefore, oil is up. In response, as we see the dollar chart here, the DXY, that is trading up as well. So moving back up. And again, by default, like I mentioned, that is causing gold to fall down about 1.1% here in the overnight. And again, Again, we know our key levels here. And silver as well is under some stress down about 1.75%. Now, if we look at the 10-year yield, which is interest rates, with oil moving up, you can see the 10-year yield. Remember, that generally moves with oil because oil increases the inflation within the system. Therefore, rates have to grind higher. And sure enough, rates are up a little bit, but not much. Last week, we had a tremendous move up on the 10-year interest rate. Now, today in the overnight, we are up just a little bit. So, again, just getting our grounding, right? And that's part of the game plan here in this Sunday night video is to put ourselves in a position where going into tomorrow's Monday open, we already have a basis. Now, things can change overnight, and they most likely will, but we have to adjust just slightly. You never want to go into Monday not knowing where oil is trading, not knowing what the dollar is doing, not knowing where the S&P is trading. You want to understand what's the driving force in the market and in the commodity space and the currency markets. All right? That's really, really important. So, if we go back here and we do a quick flip over, let's go to the S&P 500. The S&P 500 had a pretty decent week last week. Again, we came into the week trading basically around $74.85. And last week, again, one, two, three, four, five days, because remember, the previous Friday was closed for July 4th. But it basically ended up from $7.85 we closed last week at $74.85 to $75.70 or so. So, it was just under a 100-point gain on the S&P. That's a little over 1%. Now, what we continue to notice here is we have our major technical support and resistance lines. Number one, this remains as our resistance line up here, which is just above $7,700. Again, it is inclining, so we have to understand that that line will continue to inch up over time. And then the big level of support remains right in this level here. This is just around $7,300. What we see here is that if we remove this one line for the time being, this trend line has been the one we want to focus on. Because, again, not only does it go back to the high in the markets from 2021's bull market, but then it connects right through this high. And it established itself as major because right here it was support and right here. So, generally, what you like to see from a trend line is that from both sides, it was either support or resistance. In this case, high pivot to high pivot, that created resistance. We broke above that level, and then it became support. That tells me it's a very good trend line, and it acts both as resistance and now as support. So, again, we have a grounded level. Now, the reason we want to know this level, as I've said before, is because if this breaks, it starts probably a cascade much, much lower. Now, as long as we stay above it, you've got to give the bull market to the S&P 500. Path of least resistance remains to the upside, even with the S&P futures down in the overnight. And let's be fair, folks. The Iran-U.S. conflict, it's not the reason the markets are going to take a dump. Now, will it cause stress on the consumer? Will it cause a slower economy, which inevitably will bring the markets down? That's a whole other story. It is connected, absolutely, but at least in the near term, that's not the catalyst here for a bigger move. It's going to have to be something bigger, whether it's a continued correction in the semiconductor AI space or whether it's an economy that slows. Or, more importantly, this week, could we see the economic data, which is CPI and PPI, then retail sales? That could be the key. Now, before we get into that, guys, just a reminder, and this is big, folks, is that this is the last 12 hours or so of our course sale at verifiedinvesting.com. That's the Winning Trader Series Pro Edition, 40% off. Every other course on verified investing, 40% off. Last 12 hours of that sale, folks, change your financial future. These courses are high-end institutional grade, and that's really the essence of it. It's not nonsense. You can find out anywhere. The things in here are proprietary, technical, institutional. Check it out. Last 12 hours of this sale. Great to see so many of you guys upping your game with purchasing it, all right? So that's really, really important. I love seeing you guys take advantage of big discounts like that. All right, so next up, if we look here, let's go over to a couple of the other charts. We touched on oil already, but I want to give you guys an update here. Basically, what we have is we have a high pivot from last week, around $76 a barrel. That is going to be your break point. If you take that out, you should easily achieve my target at $79 a barrel. Now, you might say, well, could it go higher? The answer is, of course, it could go higher. But this pivot low is going to be the short-term resistance. In all fairness, what we've seen is that generally, as soon as things calm down in the airstrikes, oil comes right back in. So it's unlikely, in my opinion, that we're going to push above this level, although it can happen, probability-wise, this, to me, remains the resistance level. If we did get through that, then you have this secondary zone right up here, which looms large at $87. Low pivot, this low pivot, kissed here, hits here, hits here, and then broke down. So that would be a retrace to major resistance. That would be your next target if we take out this $79 a barrel level. On the downside, gap fill right here remains the major level. So, again, as long as you hold here. And in all fairness, I don't see oil going below $67 unless the U.S. economy stalls out. So that's the kicker there, is that the U.S. economy would need to stall out for me to see a significant drawdown in oil below that level. A lot of that has to do with the strategic reserves still need to be refilled or are in the process of being refilled. But that will take months and months and months. And so, again, I don't expect upside in oil significantly, but I also don't expect major downside in oil significantly, at least not until the U.S. economy shows signs of weakening. Now, before we get into the other charts on gold and silver, just a heads up that this week we will see CPI data Tuesday morning, PPI Wednesday morning, and Thursday morning retail sales. Okay, retail sales, very, very important. And then more importantly, potentially, well, maybe not more importantly, because inflation is really important, so is the consumer. But we also have the big banks reporting this week, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, et cetera. So big earnings there. Netflix reports, I believe it's Thursday after the close. And ASML, which is the biggest European semiconductor, reports later this week as well. And so, again, semiconductor-wise, ASML is huge this week. And then, obviously, Netflix just in general. Netflix has been beaten down. We can even take a look at that chart here and dive in. And you can see Netflix has this great trend line here. It's retracing to, believe it or not, going in, if it's right around this $71 level, I think I'm a little on the bullish side going into earnings. By the way, we could even extend this out here. Look at that. Right out to that pivot point, right into that level. So, one, two, three, four, potentially coming down for a fifth hit. But I would be, listen, earnings are always tricky, right? You just never know for sure. But based on how oversold Netflix is, I would lean more towards a relief rally after Netflix reports. Also, looking at the RSI here, you can see that, again, what's interesting here is if we were to come down and make a lower low, very clearly, you'd have a higher RSI. It's not a great divergence yet because you really want to see it turn up to confirm that. But nonetheless, it's good to see that we're almost back down to the lows from here. But look at how much higher the RSI is at this point. It does appear to be turning up just a little bit. All right. On the other side, ASML, which will be, again, the big chip stock reporting here. If we take a look at that chart, it's had an epic run. I mean, look at where it was in August of 2025 at $680, hit a high of 2,000 just a few weeks ago. And then here we are, basically potentially bear flagging here. Wouldn't surprise me to see this come down, guys. Look at this. If we continue into earnings like this, that's a bear flag. And you might see a rollover. So I'd be negative on earnings of ASML, looking for a drawdown and a positive expectation on Netflix on those earnings. Okay. So that's just a little rundown there. Looking at gold and silver real quick here, guys. Gold, again, down about 1.1%. The key is the tightening wedge pattern continues to tighten here. At some point, we're going to see a breakout or a breakdown. I've spent this weekend, believe it or not, doing a massive amount of major cycle work, which I'm hoping to release this week on verifiedinvesting.com. It'll be for anyone that even has a free account on our website. It will be available to you. It's an in-depth, institutional-level, hardcore research report. I also built a calculator based on the factors that I found so you guys can judge and you can say, okay, well, if interest rates are here and it'll tell you exactly where the potential peak will be date-wise of the next bull market in gold or the next bull run. And also, it'll tell you exactly, generally, or give you a price range of where that will be. And really, what I'm looking at is, you know, by 2030, early 2030s, you'll see, according to this calculator, or at least according to my metrics, we're looking at essentially probably a 13,000 handle, 11 to 13,000 at minimum handle on gold. It's pretty exciting. Even though you guys know, in general, I've been more near-term bearish, which has been the debt-on-right call, and I still think we can go down to 3,500, it still shows you that the upside is incredible, as the factors that are the factors that I've laid out in this research report show. It should be one of the best well-read research reports you'll get out there from any institutional player. Okay? So that's where gold is, silver, same sort of deal here. If we take a look at that, you can see silver is down about 1.8%. This still looks like a bear flag to me. Again, I'm looking for 54, which would be right this high pivot here. And then if that breaks, $50, which would be right here. And then if it, the max, really, listen, I mean, price can overshoot my levels. It often does both to the upside or the downside. But in general, 46 would be the low end of what I'm expecting based on all the technical analysis that I've done. So interesting aspect on that. All right. Now, just a reminder, folks, before we continue, don't forget that, again, every video here at Verified Investing has partnered up. We've partnered up with Rumble. The Rumble wallet is the way to go. So, in fact, as we look at this research report, as you guys see it in a few days on Verified Investing, we're essentially looking, and I'm just bringing up the app now because I have it on my phone, is that gold, if we get this move, that's significant upside. Silver, I'll come out with a research report maybe in a week or so that's equally as institutional grade, et cetera, maybe a calculator for that as well. But suffice it to say, this is where I'm buying and selling my crypto as well as my gold, gold in terms of Tether right here. And Tether actually backs it with physical, which is so, so cool. And Rumble, what I love about Rumble wallet, number one, it's the easiest app to use for buying and selling. I love how easy it is. And then number two, it's a $2 billion plus company, right? So, it's not like a small fish out there. It is a mega player out there. And by the way, they're getting into the data center game and the chips game, which is very exciting as well. So, check out that. You can scan the QR code on the screen or you can just go to the link in the description and it'll be right there. All right, let's continue on here, guys. As we continue, we can take a look at just a couple other things. So, this week, I'm keeping an eye on TTD. I have a wedge potential attempt at a confirmation of a breakout here on TTE, the trade desk. So, that's on my radar this week. And again, notice how I have things on my radar. In fact, if we go here, we can flip over to my crypto list. We can bring up Bitcoin. Bitcoin, look at this, guys. Little inverse head and shoulders. I was originally thinking, this is so cool. Originally, I was thinking this was going to be the head and shoulders. But now, it's looking like this is the actual head and shoulders right here. And it's fully formed right there. Now, we just need the neckline to break at around $64,200. A daily close with confirmation above that, you have an upside target of $71,000. So, I'm actually really, if we can get a breakout here, this would be a great setup for a long play on that. And then, if we flip over to the stock list that I have, a couple stocks I'm going to watch very closely. AMD is very close to all-time highs. There's a gap still at $581 this week, $582. If we fill that gap, that would be intriguing. I'm also watching for a short on SanDisk at a retrace here to about the 2025 to 2050 level right here into this retrace. Notice support, breakdown, resistance. So, that's another one. And I continue to like Oracle down here. I have a ton. Listen, it could go a little bit lower, but it's just so oversold. And, again, if it goes a little bit lower, there's tons of technical support here. And I'd be looking at this at some point for a relief rally to the upside. So, earnings, economic news. This is going to be a blockbuster week between earnings, then the CPI, PPI, retail sales numbers, the S&P. Can it make a new all-time high? Does it go up to that level or does it fail and come back in? We're watching oil, which has now had major moves. The dollar is pushing up, which is causing gold. All of these factors are getting me pumped, but, more importantly, prepared for the coming trading week. So, I wanted to pass this along. Everything that I'm going through in terms of my analysis, what we're watching here, Bitcoin potentially inverse head and shoulders breakout. Everything that I'm watching here, this is my prep game for the coming week. All right. You guys have a great rest of your day. Thank you so much for tuning in. I'll talk to you soon. [00:16:12] Speaker ?: Thank you.