President Trump says agreement with Iran will be signed Sunday

[0:00] Welcome back into live now from Fox. I'm your host, Anna Marsik. As promised before the break, [0:04] we told you that we are going to dig more into the announcements today regarding the war in Iran. [0:09] Take a look at this ex post on your screen there coming from the prime minister of Pakistan earlier [0:16] today. He said we are closer to a peace deal than ever before with finalization likely expected in [0:23] the next 24 hours. Pakistan is preparing for the electronic signing of the peace deal immediately [0:30] after, followed by the technical level talks next week. We would like to thank the United States of [0:37] America and Islamic Republic of Iran for their ongoing commitment during the negotiations, [0:43] and we extend our sincere appreciation to our brothers in the region for their support. We are [0:49] confident that this historic peace deal will form a strong foundation for lasting peace. So that post [0:57] coming from the prime minister earlier today, then President Donald Trump also posting on Truth [1:03] Social earlier today, saying Barack Hussein Obama's deal with Iran, the JCPOA was an easy, beautiful, [1:11] smooth road to a nuclear weapon, which Iran would have had six years ago and would have used long [1:18] before now. My agreement with Iran is the exact opposite, a wall to no nuclear weapon. In fact, [1:25] they no longer want a nuclear weapon, nor will they have one, either through purchase, development, [1:30] or any other form of procurement. The deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately [1:37] after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is open to all. Our relationship with Iran is a much different [1:44] and better one than previous administrations have had. Unlike Obama's hundreds of billions of dollars [1:50] in payments to them, including $1.7 billion in green cold cash, no money will exchange hands. At the [1:58] appropriate time when all this is calm, we will go in and get the nuclear dust buried deep under the [2:05] powerful sunken granite mountains, thanks to our beautiful B-2 bombers and their brilliant pilots, [2:11] and downblend and destroy it. Whether in Iran or the United States, we look forward to working with [2:17] Iran and the entire Middle East long into the future. Hopefully this process will all work out [2:23] quickly, easily, and smoothly. If it doesn't, we have the ultimate alternative, hopefully never to [2:28] be used again. Thank you for your attention to this matter, signed President Donald J. Trump. [2:33] So joining us right now to break down all of this is Seth Jones with CSIS. He is the president of the [2:39] Defense and Security Department. Thanks so much for joining us here on Live Now from Fox. [2:43] Thanks so much for having me. Of course. So with this latest news breaking today, [2:46] as President Trump says that this deal is going to be signed, is this actually going to happen? [2:52] That's a big question. Yeah, I mean, certainly hope so. There are a range of reasons why it would be [2:59] good, including if the price of gasoline that Americans are spending right now starts to come down. [3:05] So I think it'd be good for America. It'd be good for a number of countries in the region. What we [3:10] don't know yet, though, is the details of where the negotiations right now are. And in particular, [3:17] two areas where I think many of us are going to be watching closely. The first is Iran's nuclear [3:23] weapons. What has been agreed to and what are the Iranians agreed to on the enriched uranium stockpiles, [3:31] as well as the infrastructure they have in places like Isfahan and Natanz, what's happening to those [3:37] locations? The second is the details of opening up the strait. How's that going to happen? Is there [3:43] money that's changed hands? So I think in that sense, we don't really know the details yet. [3:50] They have not been publicly identified. And I would just, you know, we've got a revolutionary [3:57] regime in Iran that I don't think most people will trust. So I think there are a lot of ways this one [4:02] will have to keep an eye on it. And I think this one could actually go south with an Iranian regime [4:09] that's hard to trust. And you talk about the trust aspect of it. Can we trust Iran to make a deal? [4:15] Because there was an announcement that Iran said that a deal is not going to be signed. And then we're [4:20] seeing President Trump saying that a deal is going to be signed. So I mean, what's the clear path [4:25] here? Well, I mean, at the end of the day, the Iran continues to be run by a radical Shia [4:36] revolutionary regime. The son of the previous Ayatollah that was killed by the U.S. and the [4:42] Israelis is in power. So we still have the revolutionary regime in power. We probably have a more powerful [4:49] role by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. So sort of the key revolutionary military element of the [4:55] government is still in charge. So no, I don't think it's a regime that we can fully trust. And I think [5:03] when you look at the relationship with the range of actors, Israel still remains concerned about Lebanese [5:11] Hezbollah and the missile buildup and drone buildup in Lebanon. The Houthis continue to fire [5:16] small numbers of missiles, including countries like Israel. And then Iran continues to try to rebuild [5:25] its drone program and also its missile program. So I don't think it's a regime that we can fully [5:33] trust. And I think this means it's going to be very important to watch how this unfolds. [5:38] If a deal is reached, what role does Israel play moving forward? And what does success look like for [5:44] that? Well, I think Israel remains the country in the region probably with the most at stake. The [5:52] Iranian threat to Israel is existential. In Iran that attempts to hide a clandestine nuclear program [6:01] certainly would pose a threat to the United States, but would pose a major threat to Israel. It's in the [6:06] region and will continue to be there for the future. So I think Israel plays plays a role in the intelligence [6:15] of its collection and analysis, keeping an eye on what the Iranians are doing, keeping an eye on the [6:20] nuclear program. The Israelis have absolutely fantastic signals intelligence, human intelligence [6:26] capabilities. And if the Iranians shirk any sort of agreement, I think the Israelis will play an important [6:35] role in strike operations as well, whether it's in Lebanon, in Iran or elsewhere. So they remain a very [6:42] important partner. If a deal isn't reached, what's the biggest military concern that the United States [6:49] faces? Well, there are two concerns I think that the U.S. faces. One is where is Iran headed on nuclear [6:58] weapons production? And that includes what is it doing with the enriched uranium, roughly a thousand pounds, [7:04] that it still has? And then does it try to rebuild the program? And the second concern is what happens to the [7:13] strait if there is no deal. Since May, U.S. Central Command has said that it has helped over 200 ships [7:21] get through and over 100 million barrels of oil get through the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war started, [7:28] it was roughly 130 ships per day were getting through. So this does not, if the deal drags out [7:37] or actually falls apart, we still have a strait of Hormuz that is largely closed. So there's been [7:45] minimal traffic that's gone through. And we have unresolved Iran's nuclear program. Those are big [7:51] risks for the U.S. Looking at the war from a military standpoint, who do you think has gained the most from [7:56] this war and why? Well, look, Iran has suffered tremendously during this war. Its drone capabilities [8:08] have been hit pretty hard, including its Shahids. Its missile capability has been hit relatively hard, [8:17] including its crews and ballistic missiles. And then, you know, Iran hasn't had much of a conventional [8:22] force. But what it has had, including a Navy, has largely been sunk. So, I mean, Iran is a much weaker [8:31] power right now, military power. So, you know, hard to argue that the that that the Iranians have come [8:38] out in any way, shape or form sort of better from what's happened over the last nearly four months. [8:44] I would just say over the long run, though, any country, including Iran, and Iran's got relationships [8:50] with the Chinese, with the Russians and others, it will be able to rebuild those kinds of capabilities. [8:56] So just because they're weaker now doesn't mean they're going to be weaker in six months or a year. [9:01] Is there any capability that they have lost that would be significantly hard to replace? [9:07] Not really. Some of the nuclear facilities that have been hit pretty hard, [9:16] like Isfahan and Natanz, will take some time to rebuild. But I think some of the other areas, [9:25] if we're talking about a year or so timeline, I think they can rebuild some of those crews and [9:30] ballistic missile and drone capabilities. So those are all eventually replaceable. The nuclear [9:37] infrastructure is probably what's going to take the longest. Looking at this conflict, just from a [9:42] wider lens and your defense standpoint, what surprised you the most about it? [9:49] Well, I think one of the unfortunate aspects of where we are in the war right now and what was a [9:56] little bit surprising was how much the Strait of Hormuz really played a central role. Now, [10:02] during my time in the US Department of Defense or war right now in the Pentagon, the Strait of Hormuz was [10:10] an important part of any of the war plans we call O plans for the US. But the Iranians really have [10:16] used their standoff weapons capabilities. So think like anti-ship cruise missiles and drones [10:23] to target ships in that area. And I would just say moving forward, I think we're likely to see the [10:29] Strait of Hormuz being contested for the foreseeable future, even with a deal. If there is some sort of [10:36] disagreement coming down the road when the US and Iran or Israel conduct strikes in Lebanon that the [10:43] Iranians don't like, I think we could be right back into a contested Strait of Hormuz that the Iranians [10:50] start firing missiles or drones against ships, including oil transport ships that are going [10:56] through the strait. So for me, one of the big surprises really has been there, how much the [11:03] strait has become an important part of this. You know, we know President Trump is set to attend the [11:08] G7 summit in France next week. When Iran comes up in that room, what do you think those conversations [11:13] are going to be about? I think opening up the strait is probably the single biggest issue. And how can [11:21] many of those G7 countries, as well as Gulf states, frankly, aid this effort more? I mean, [11:28] the US has been really the only country, the major country anyway, that's been involved in trying to [11:35] open up the strait. But if this thing is to stay open in any foreseeable way, the US is going to need [11:41] help from the Emirates, the Saudis, Bahrain, Oman, a number of European countries as well to add their [11:52] intelligence collection capabilities, ships, aircraft to keep it open. So I mean, I suspect [11:59] because of the economic benefits of an open strait, getting more help on the military side would be [12:04] would be an important part of those conversations. And realistically, if a deal is reached, let's say [12:10] tomorrow it actually happens, how quickly can the Strait of Hormuz reopen? I think it's going to take a [12:16] little bit of time, frankly, for commercial companies to trust that the strait is open. And for insurance [12:23] companies, for example, to trust that the strait is open. So I think we'll probably start to see [12:30] an increase in the number of ships from virtually nothing right now, a little bit of a trickle. [12:35] And we'll start to escalate the number of ships. But I suspect what everybody's going to be watching [12:40] for companies that that are moving material through the strait is, you know, do the Iranians [12:48] keep to the promises? Do they refrain from firing standoff weapons at ships coming through? Do they [12:57] refrain from laying mines in the strait of Hormuz? And that trust of an Iranian regime, [13:04] again, that is a revolutionary regime, is going to take time. That's why I don't think we're going to [13:08] see a major increase in transit even after a deal. I think it's going to take some time for that to happen. [13:15] If this deal is signed tomorrow, which President Trump is saying that it is scheduled to get [13:21] signed tomorrow and immediately after it, the strait of Hormuz is open to all. If this really [13:26] does happen and the deals details are released, what are you specifically going to be keeping an eye on? [13:33] Yeah, two things. One is, what are the specifics about Iran's nuclear weapons program? What do the [13:41] Iranians agree to? And how does the U.S. essentially keep an eye on that Iran is keeping its end of the [13:53] bargain? There have been international inspectors that have been let in the past. Is that going to [13:57] happen? Is the U.S. going to have to monitor that some other way through intelligence collection? [14:03] So how are we going to know that Iran is keeping its end of the deal up? That's one. And the second, [14:08] again, is really what are the details about opening up of the strait of Hormuz? Is there going to be a [14:16] toll? If so, who is paying for it? And when it comes to the relief of sanctions, what is Iran going to [14:25] use that money for in the past? It's used some of the sanctions relief to build its conventional weapons [14:32] arsenal. So what is Iran doing if there is some sanctions relief and it's got more money to spend? [14:39] All right. Well, we will certainly be watching for those developments.