Oil Rallies 14.4% as Silver Falls 6.4% My Market Outlook

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: welcome to in it to win it this is steve barton and thank you for tuning in we're here for monday market moves what happened last week in the markets and what i expect for next week all righty let's go to the charts starting out as always with the s p 500 we are down 1.6 percent for the week so no new all-time highs i thought that we would hit a new all-time high we basically ground sideways and then fell out of bed on friday lost the 20 and the 50-day moving average my bias for next week is lower uh spacex is down 14.7 for the week so beautiful pattern here of we had the nice topping tail on the weekly here forecasting lower prices and then on the daily chart here we had this beautiful bear flag that just played out and moved lower a lot of you guys played this through sspc the 2x inverse which was up over 35 this week i got some questions as to like much juice is left in this thing um i personally would just take the bet off hopefully you guys didn't hold this thing uh through the weekend you you know it has a lot of decay here and if it jumps to the upside you're gonna lose your shorts pretty quick um but uh you're talking about this uh measured target here so with the bear flag you take the pole down to the base of the flag and you extend it out to where the breakout was so the breakout was right here on this day um right there uh july 7th uh when uh when it got listed on the nasdaq 100 pawning it off on mom and pops and measured target could be down here around 75 so you know that's just a measured target it doesn't necessarily mean that it has to get there um but you have to really be right when you're when you're betting these 2x inverse ones and i mean it looks like it's going lower next week to me if i go to the 30 minute chart that is kind of a bear flag pattern but but with not not enough conviction to bet it anymore you know what i mean like this was this was a pretty easy call uh now it looks like it's going down but i i wouldn't place a bet on that one okay uh the dollar the dxy is down 0.2 for the week um looks to me like it's going to go up we have a little bit of a trend line here that started to break out at the beginning of the week and then came right back down um so i think overall here the pattern is basically a bull flag and so my bias for the dollar next week is up and the 10-year yield is down 0.3 for the week um this one is uh at a decent pivotal point so we have this triangle pattern going back to march of 2023 so basically three years and the way these patterns work is usually you know as they get tighter and tighter right uh it builds up more and more energy and when this finally breaks it will usually break more violently to the up or downside depending on which way it breaks i personally think that this thing is going to break to the upside uh but maybe i'm wrong but when it does break it should break kind of violently like we saw with oil a month and a half ago right when oil was up there in that tight triangle and then it broke down real sharply to the downside that's kind of what i see coming for all of these treasuries the uh uh the 10s the 20s the 30s they're all setting up the same similar pattern so anytime we get on one of these white lines the question is well is now the time where it breaks out uh i don't know uh the i mean there is a bit of a bullish consolidation right here i think immediately for next week we're probably going up a little bit at least on uh monday or tuesday um you've got the 20 and the 50 day moving averages support right there i think my bias for next week would be yields move higher and gold is down 2.3 percent for the week so not looking great for the bulls let me go here to the candle chart so you can see it a little better um a pseudo double bottom here but not really like uh okay so see how it's coming in there and it's just kind of grinding sideways what you want for a double bottom is you want it to kind of like go like form like a w right this isn't this is this is almost more like a bear flag here right than it is really any kind of like uh double bottom uh so my bias for next week for gold is going to be down i think we might lose this level here next week uh around the 4 000 level we're sitting just north of that right now um but it looks to me like it's more likely that we're going to lose it now if we do lose it there is some support right here at 37 and then the granddaddy of support is basically coming from this sideways action right over here that was basically uh april uh to august i'm sorry april to september of 2025 uh and that's going to be around 3500 now if it falls i got a feeling it could fall pretty quick i don't think this is going to be a slow bleed this could be the kind of thing like a liquidity crisis type deal where you get a sharp spike and then up i'm thinking it's going to be a bar something like this right like a real sharp sell-off and then a quick recovery so i really like selling puts or having limit orders on the way down of some of your favorite gold miners all right and spot market basically the same i don't see anything different on this chart um there is uh you know one little tiny saving grace here we do have this kind of trend line going down so if the price action does break above that and then retest uh this chart could turn slightly more bullish all right phys this is the physical bullion on the stock market is down 2.2 for the week so if you're new to the show welcome glad to have you welcome to the hive this is basically the way we do it we got the red yellow and green lines here and all i'm trying to emphasize is that you know if it's in a company or or a sector that you believe in as it gets cheaper buy more so let's say you wanted 10 to your portfolio to be physical bullion and your portfolio was a hundred thousand dollars so that means you want ten thousand dollars worth of this physical bullion fund i would say by fifteen hundred dollars worth here at 36 bucks a share and then by thirty five hundred dollars worth at thirty four dollars a share and then by your final five case slug down here at thirty one dollars a share and since they're all already down below the red yellow and green lines i think it's an okay time now to be fully allocated to whatever your target allocation is for physical gold now like i was saying we might have a washout sale here and if we go to the gold chart we can see that this price action right back here almost perfectly resembles this price action right here because this is a physical bullion fund so it should uh if we get a washout sale like that just in case i got a limit order right down here at 26 bucks uh so hopefully it hits i don't know if it will but uh fingers are crossed i think the odds that it gets down to here and hits that are probably 15 percent so low but i think it's high enough to where it's worth placing uh limit orders on the way down all right gdx down 5.6 percent for the week uh my bias is lower for this one as well approaching the green line right here at 69 and then this is the general area that i'm thinking back here uh for where it could go if we get a washout sale in gold and diggin gold for you said you have limit orders on miners for gold if it hits 35 or 3600 but how do you know what the target prices are on the miners i don't i'm guessing all right it's a it's a total guess but this is the logic behind it okay if we go to the gold chart the sideways consolidation for four and a half months and then we go to gdx here sideways consolidation same period of time uh you know during that so it doesn't seem totally unreasonable to me that it could get down there now i i understand that there's you know uh different assets under management the holdings have changed um it's uh you know maybe there's more shares now than there were back then or fewer um yeah i get that and and you know if you have a better method i'm all ears uh but that's generally what i'm thinking and this is kind of the stink bid level that i have for a lot of our um gold miners and gold companies in the premium portfolio is the stink super stink bids most of them are on the green lines right now but the super stink bids are kind of in this sideways action right here uh on a lot of the miners same thing here for gdxj right so if we get this washout sale you know i i don't think it's coming down here uh i think you know the odds are low but i think the odds are good enough to where you know it's worth having a limit order down here for 70 75 bucks you know just in case all right and silver is down 6.4 for the week so it looks like that was a bear flag last week that played out to the downside i thought last week this would move up it did anything but and move down so kind of a bear flag there went down we're coming across what we call in the business of a confluence of support right so basically we have this line right here this is going back let me go to the monthly chart here and this is just the um you know top of the 1980 peak 2011 peak and then the breakthrough of basically 50 here and then now we're coming right down around that level right now we also have this parallel downward sloping parallel channel right here i think this is fairly reliable we've got two hits on the top right here uh we have um some decent price action over here and then we've got one two the body of that candle three four uh five right here so i think this is a pretty valid parallel channel there's a lot of support right here around uh call it 54 to like 52 dollars so i think we're going down next week in silver maybe we get a washout especially if we get a washout in gold then none of these lines are going to matter but i am looking at the basic floor of uh silver now uh 48 to 54 kind of in that range we're basically trying to capture all this price action right here we want to flush out uh anyone that you know is just becoming completely just completely capitulating right just just get them out and uh and then we can resume the bull run but in the meantime i think there's going to be some good buys on the miners uh okay and spot market is basically uh yeah we're still in contango nothing to see there and pslv is down 5.75 for the week so basically the same as silver um i think that it's probably going lower i had my limit order down here on the green line at 18 bucks and if we get the washout here the next support level i see on this one will be 15 per share and sil is down six percent for the week looks to me like this is going lower we were having some really good positive divergence here on the rsi in the miners and i think we're about to lose that so looks like we're going lower i like a order down here on sil at 62.50 there's a good amount of support back there and i think the odds of it getting there are pretty good and let's see if you want to play a little more alpha then be sure to check out our premium service as a premium sub stack member you will get a premium monday market moves video my personal portfolio so i'll basically bring up all the companies in my portfolio and do a chart analysis just like this you get a weekly snapshot of my portfolio with positions share counts dollar amounts you get bonus interviews with guests so most of the time with guests i'll do a follow-up video for premium subscribers and you get flash updates when i'm buying and selling a position i will tell you first just like thursday of this week i bought some uranium i bought some put in some limit orders on other stuff and i'll tell you before i buy it and then you get access to a private chat group with other premium subscribers so uh digging gold for you wanted to know how you become a premium subscriber go to uh the link down below and that'll take you straight there or go to the website steve barton money.com and sign up for the newsletter there european techie says after being around for some time and joining pre joining premium membership six months ago i'm still here why what makes this content so valuable for me is the technical analysis here gives me a reasonably good sense of when and when not to commit to certain ideas just like i sold most of my physical silver at a hundred dollars plus i'm now reshuffling about half of that of my physical gold into silver miners royal gold and i'm even considering increasing my uranium exposure i think that's a good idea especially now this channel really helps me figure out when to double down on an idea it's invaluable well thank you very much i appreciate the awesome review um glad to have you european techie he's also got a youtube channel i was checking it out it's kind of a uh travel channel uh so just type in european techie and check it out and a big thank you to all my premium members i love that i get to do this each and every week this is a blast to me all right copper paging dr copper is down point three percent for the week so a bit of a bear flag here bear with me on this one let's see okay so we kind of have the pole here and then it goes up like this right so bearish flag now we're we're we're flirting flirting i tell you with the edge of this becoming invalid and so if i string this down right here we could see that if we get past this blue line that's the 78.6 retracement then essentially the bear flag is off but for now it's still there uh you can see the uh the bear part of it right there right uh so i think initially next week we're going to be moving up but if we um can't take out what price point is that six dollars and 44 cents then my bias for copper will be down and copx copper miners etf down 4.2 for the week i think this will probably go lower as well uh is kind of putting in a triangle pattern kind of like i was showing earlier with uh yields although this one is much shorter in duration um i think this yeah i think we still got some room to go on this i like the 70 uh order quite a bit and this 60 order down here has a lot of price action you know call it 60 to 65 some maybe 63 somewhere in that ballpark um but i like limit orders on that down there as well a lot of back support and uranium is down 0.1 for the week so summer seasonality uh uranium seems to be getting sold off as is evidenced here by s-r-u-u-f still have 81.4 million pounds no pounds added haven't added since may 11th we are at basically a 10 discount 9.9 discount right now uh so i think it's a fantastic time to buy if i hadn't bought three weeks ago i'd literally be buying you know all this week anywhere around 1850 i think is a smoking deal there is the offside chance that this continues for the summer which i think it will i think uranium is going to actually get cheaper um and uh next support line i like on this one is at 17 bucks urnm is down 9.5 for the week so we got the breakdown that we hoped for my bias is still down so i bought back here at 49 bucks and of course i sent out an alert to premium members before i did so i have my next limit order down here at 45 so i'm really hoping this sell-off continues i would like to see this thing just get washed out i don't think it'll get down here to this previous low of 30 bucks but uh that would be amazing if it did and i hope it does so uh next week in the pipeline we will have more companies all from the rural symposium so full disclosure i own some of the companies that i interviewed not all of them but i own some of them um interviews will be coming out in this order magna mining ecora royalties gold group mining emperor metals and centaurus metals and i also have another interview with rick rule in the rural classroom plus on wednesday the 22nd at 12 30 pm pacific time so i hope to see you there wti oil up 14.4 percent for the week that sounds like too much is that right yeah that's right okay 14.4 percent um now we did get a let me go to the two hour chart here and you can see it a little bit better uh so basically last week we had this kind of uh uh bullish pattern right here right and this week uh sent out an alert uh to premium guys that it looked like oil was going to be moving up again and that pattern played out as well and it's not super scientific it's just it's just a bull flag and we know that about seven out of ten times these bull flags uh break out to the upside and you know this one the seven out of times hit and not the three out of ten times so it looks like oil will be moving up next week as well we do have some resistance coming up here around 85 bucks for wti hitting on some resistance right now for brent brent brent is up 17.4 for the week so same kind of thing on the daily chart here it's hitting the 50-day moving average right there uh and then you've got some more resistance pretty much just a little bit above it around 90 to 92 but my bias for oil next week is up up until those uh resistance levels all right and xle is up 4.7 for the week um so the two hour chart here played out uh same kind of thing full flag right here played out uh now if we back up here a bit uh this is where it gets a little interesting okay so look at the formation now that we're starting to get on xle and uh some of the other oil companies huh hint hint uh look at this we'll draw it here what does this look like what are we starting to see that boys and girls is a bull flag so um you know we could chop you know kind of do this continue to do this for a while and just form out a super long uh bull flag you know it doesn't doesn't mean that it's got a breakthrough uh tomorrow but um uh yeah looking pretty bullish here for our oil companies you know this kind of reminds me of what we had back here when we're buying this thing was you essentially had like a giant bull flag here a bull pennant on a lot of these uh oil companies that finally broke out and it looks like we're just starting to form another one here on xle all right natural gas is down 1.1 for the week so this one let me zoom in here i'll do that there we go uh interesting here the setup i thought this was going to break out to the upside didn't get the chance to play make the play on boil but you know sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make because we didn't lose any money but uh uh it looks like it's forming a little golf putter here right so do we have a little baby bear flag here i don't like that um well okay see how it kind of stair stepped down a little bit right there i would prefer to just have more of a sell-off and then kind of a grind sideways if i go to the two-hour chart see how it's a little bit of a rounding right there that's not ideal for a bear flag uh you know it takes the certitude out of it a little bit let's say the seven out of ten times is now closer to six out of ten so i don't see a bettable pattern here but it does kind of look to me like um we might have a little bit lower here on that gas but there's uh i i don't see a bet here because look at this is probably your floor right around 275 so what are you gonna bet on a 12 cent move that just doesn't make any sense i would wait for a different pattern all right and fcg is up 4.9 for the week basically same as last week i really like buys around this 200 day moving average i've been saying for the last three weeks that i think you know you could probably take a pretty good position here on this yellow line it's not just the 200 day moving average also if we go back here to recent lows to recent highs you have my favorite setup on the charts that just like just seems to print money and what that is is that is a 61.8 retracement on a rising 200 day moving average and that's exactly what we have here so um yeah i like that around the 200 day moving average uh for a bet all right and that was net gas we're going on to coal uh pacific coal is up 3.6 for the week uh a little cautionary here maybe we have a bear flag forming i'm not sure if this was just some of the demand destruction or maybe a little little miniature recession uh sell-off that we had right here i i don't know but that pattern does kind of look like a bear flag there for pacific thermal and then atlantic thermal um up two percent for the week same kind of thing kind of looks like a bear pennant or a uh a bear flag i don't know um and then met coal also stair-stepping down a little bit um down 2.1 percent for the week and our coal etf is up 1.5 for the week so good time to i think place a limit order if you don't have one already on coal so this is just an etf with 20 different coal companies right about half met and about half thermal coal so you got power generation in there and also steel making coal i like the 2250 line a lot for a bet there's quite a bit of back support on that line as well don says thanks steve i really appreciate the show and your ta you are welcome sir thank you for being here appreciate the support i'm going to go to the website here and share a new little development we have uh oh um who was it was asking it was um drum roll digging gold for you he says how do i become a subscriber right here go to the website um and type in your email right here and then you can sign up for the premium service thank you sir look forward to serving you all right on the website here we got a new gallery oh gotta just that cut off my forehead there but um yeah so i posted all the pictures loved meeting you guys out at the symposium and all the other symposiums uh very cool so uh thank you guys for supporting the show like this one a lot they got me a cup in it to win it that's what i use for my coffee every morning so i don't have to walk back into the kitchen and refill the uh refill the coffee uh here's the last one with uh rick someone must have said something funny but anyways you can check that uh check that out on the website and thank you for the comment don and platinum is down one percent for the week so um i still don't really see a bettable pattern here i think a lot of what happens with gold and silver is going to be reflected here on the platinum chart this is putting in kind of a semi uh bear flag right here so i know it's in between the red and the yellow lines i probably should take those off because i don't really have uh uh you know a certitude of this one way or the other i really want to see a breakout first um but yeah so i don't really see a bettable pattern here yet on uh platinum but on palladium this one's looking really interesting okay so we've had this nice sell-off here in palladium you know it's down what 50 percent maybe not quite that much let's take from the highs here where are we at 43 okay uh so down quite a bit now look what's happened so we have a pretty reliable trend line right here it got violated there for about a week but you know other than that it's hit this multiple times right so i can't be the only guy drawing the same line on my chart and then now look at what's happened is we broke out above that right so we broke out above on uh tuesday wednesday we're above thursday still above and friday pierced down below but look at that pretty bullish looking bar there so uh we broke out did the retest i think palladium's on its way up we need to we need to see it move up just a little bit more to have a confirmed breakout but um i'm pretty excited here i already have i took one position back here on palladium i'm probably going to take a second one here uh next week but we'll have to wait on the price action and see um time will tell all right so palladium's down 1.8 for the week and nickel futures are up 2.2 for the week so i asked rick about this one in the rule classroom so uh i asked darren gordon about it he gave me his opinion uh that episode's coming out on friday of next week and then i asked uh rick rule the replay is on our channel if you missed it um he thought the increase in diesel price so basically because of the straight of hormuz um he thought that we were um basically just had a little miniature recession right and so people stopped buying things that required as much nickel um and that you know traders sold off a lot of their futures contracts and they drove the price down and that was basically it so uh either his explanation or darren's explanation which will be out on friday next week both kind of make sense to me um so i'm i i haven't sold any as a matter of fact i bought more of one of my nickel companies uh recently and um yeah so my bias for next week on this is up and the pick etf is down 1.8 for the week i think now is a pretty good time to buy uh tom sent in a question he says uh so i looked at the chart to see what pick did during the precious metals run from close uh okay so basically he's comparing this to gdx and gdxj and taking uh you know a slug out of time and comparing each one's and he's like hey gdx gdx j sil silj all radically outperformed this peak etf why are you saying this this should be a core position in our portfolio well you're kind of comparing apples and oranges okay so most of this is uh not precious metals okay precious metals had an amazing all-time high run cup and handle breakout uh you know here's just the spot price of gold we did we did that you know uh what this peaky pick etf is invested in the top four holdings which make up 30 percent of the etf are bhp rio tinto freeport and glencore these guys are not they do mine gold and silver but that's not their core business their core business is uh copper iron ore makes up the most of it coal aluminum zinc um you know a whole bunch of other uh uh you know random ones aluminum uh so this is kind of a base case in uh in commodities right so you have to be right on the direction of gold for you to make money in the gdx and you have to be right on the direction of silver in order to make money in the silj right you don't have to be right on those in this this is kind of a catch-all for uh a commodity bet so this should be up less right but that but but when you have a bear market this isn't going to go down like we've recently seen on bhp i'm sorry on uh gdx and gdxj these companies also pay an amazing dividend most gold companies don't uh a lot of them pay just a little smidgen of a of a dividend and uh i i think the only reason they do that is so they get included in some of the etfs like some of the etfs will say we'll only include you if you pay a dividend and they're like okay we'll pay a a 0.1 annual dividend you know just some some nothing thing just so that they can get included in the uh in the index um or the etf but uh yeah i like this as a core holding i think now is a great time to buy uh basically you've got a retrace down here to a rising 200-day moving average rsi is pretty low getting some nice divergence there on the rsi and um yeah but i wouldn't treat this at all like a bet on um you know silj or or gdxj or anything like that because this is a completely different animal you know near as i can tell probably only two or three percent of you know these companies in here are you know of that bet is is gold and silver most of it is in the base metals and critical metals and like that okay hope that answered the question tom and bitcoin is up a quarter of one percent uh looks like we got a new parallel channel here so we had the nice bear flag right here that played out and then now we're starting to form a parallel channel looks like so we've got uh one two three hits on the bottom and now we have one and two hits on the top so this is a valid parallel channel so this will be the initial resistance that it's got to be able to move through which would be around 65 000 after that 66 000 on this long-term parallel that we finally broke right so let me back up i got to go to the weekly chart so we can see it so this long-term parallel started back here in 2021 and we finally broke below that so i think we got a lot more downside here for bitcoin but in the immediate term uh it looks like we're probably going to get a slight bounce next week but uh we'll see if this parallel channel holds alrighty well i hope you guys got something out of that thank you very much for being here if you want to play a little more alpha be sure to check out our premium service you can use the link down below or go to steve barton money.com uh thank you for being here have a wonderful rest of your day and happy trading for more content like this check out these videos right here