Nvidia Stock Has NEVER Flashed This Signal Before — Full NVDA Price Analysis

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: good morning everybody and welcome back to the ta toolkit well in today's video we are going to be doing some analysis on nvidia because this thing has been dropping like a rock over the last few days following some big news and announcements that we got over the weekend and so of course in today's video we have a very simple game plan we're first and foremost going to talk about what caused this pullback because there are no technicals without fundamentals then we're going to take a dive and look at exactly what is happening with the price right now what signals we're seeing flashing from the toolkit itself where we are on the price meter where we are with our liquidity zones and if we have any momentum signals flashing and then finally i'll give you guys my opinion on whether or not i think that this is a decent time to be doing a little bit of accumulating for nvidia maybe some long trades or something like that okay so as you all can tell we have a decent amount to get into today but before we do i will remind you all that this is a brand new youtube channel dedicated to bringing you all analysis on a daily basis utilizing the ta toolkit so if you have not had the opportunity to yet please head to that little subscribe button give the channel a subscribe we are on pace for 100 subscribers pretty soon here so we appreciate you guys a ton but with that said let's go ahead and let's jump straight on in so first and foremost what has been going on with nvidia to cause such a major pullback i mean we're talking about a company a stock that was just at 242 dollars a few weeks ago right five six weeks ago and now you fast forward and we're seeing this thing down 26 percent now this isn't just some normal company down 26 percent no we're talking about what was the largest company in the world a five trillion dollar company a company that even after losing 25 percent of its market cap near over a trillion dollars we're still looking at this bad boy sitting at a 4.29 trillion dollar market cap so what was it that caused this pullback and that was again what we saw over the weekend so news started to circulate rumors started to circulate at least towards the end of last week that there was a scandal potentially happening with the ceo of nvidia jensen wong and sure enough it did come true as over the weekend we saw a message sent out company-wide to nvidia from jensen basically you know taking taking responsibility for the fact that he did indeed have an affair on his wife i mean as you can see here we're not going to go through the whole thing but he does say very clearly you know i owe my family and all of you an apology i was unfaithful to my wife my actions hurt her and our children there's no excuse for what i did i'm deeply sorry and he goes on to say that yeah he did indeed you know he had an affair and obviously this was like viral news and everybody was talking about it but what was maybe in some ways more interesting was the fact that he did go out and speak up to some of the other rumors that were circulating and these other rumors that were circulating at the time or that this person that he had an affair with was a chinese spy and what you can see here is that he addresses this and says regarding the national security concerns reigns and news reports nvidia's board of directors has initiated an independent investigation i support the investigation and will cooperate fully i love our country and our company and i am committed to protecting nvidia and supporting america's national security i'm proud and grateful to be an american so what we can see here is that this was no rumor this was very very very true and many people actually speculate that a part of the reason as to why we saw nvidia selling off prior to this was that this started getting around behind the scenes right this started getting out of behind the scenes you're talking about hundreds of billions trillions of dollars that potentially could be lost in a pullback like this wouldn't shock me wouldn't shock me but nonetheless what we can see is that fast forward and this is what we got we got nvidia now down at 179 taking an absolute beating right now which of course is um presenting some potentially very interesting opportunities so with that in mind now that we have a general idea of what caused this pullback because you know one thing that i say all the time here is that even as a technical analyst that is very important to understand what's happening fundamentally because fundamentals in my opinion set the trajectory technicals are what actually map the journey right so you kind of need to use the two together even if you are a technical analyst and so now that we have a clear vision of the fundamental side let's get technical okay so what we can see here is that right now yes nvidia's price is pulled back and it is currently sitting at 179 now this hasn't just been any sort of small pullback or anything of that nature no no this has been a pullback that has essentially erased almost all of the gains of 2026 what we can see is that the majority of the gains that have been generated this year were from this low right here at 166 which was placed back at the end of march all the way up to 245 so nvidia essentially bottom to top put in a gain of 48 or so roughly well as a result of this pullback we have now seen nvidia fall about 26 leaving anyone who bought at the very bottom down here only up about nine percent now don't get me wrong nine percent is not a bad return it's not a bad gain over the course of about 10 months 11 months but all things considered not so great right not so bueno now not only has this been a big pullback it's also been a pullback that has broken a lot of structure and that's something that we can see using the ta toolkit here is that for example as we hit into this of course resistance zone right you see 245 243 and 241 the ta toolkit identified that this was resistance it identified that this is where your sellers were going to be this is where they were going to try to force the price down and that is exactly what happened and when you mix that in with the fact that we were getting our bearish momentum signals flashing here i mean you had every signal flashing and saying that some sort of reversal could be on the way and that's exactly what we saw and as nvidia's price started to come back down towards this structure we had a patch of buyers right here the ta toolkit told us hey this is where your buyers are going to be and if your buyers are not capable of holding the support if they're not capable of holding these levels you might be looking at this price really starting to get ugly because there's really not many buyers between here and all the way down near 166 and 160 right and so last week i showed my personal youtube channel i told you guys hey the ta toolkit's telling us something here and it's telling us that we need we need need need to watch very closely what happens as we hit this support because if we fall through it things can get bad from there and well sure enough what we can see is that the price came down fell through this previous buyer zone flipped it into a seller zone which is why the toolkit went from green to red right here right buyer zone to seller zone and then mass capitulated and now that it has mass capitulated it's come very close to you know this previous buy zone between 166 and 160 which is where our next big patch of support is now what's very interesting about this is that as the price is pulling back and now that it's lost that support we are actually seeing one of the biggest resets on the price meter that nvidia has seen in years so what we can see is that the price meter is currently at a minus 4.87 and if you don't know what the price meter is it's very very simple what the price meter does is it watches the price as it goes up and as it goes down and what it's doing is it's running a bunch of mathematical calculations on the back end and it's essentially trying to decide is the price getting too high or is the price getting too low if the price is going up up up and these calculations signal that the price is getting too high you'll see the meter fly into this bright red zone up here if the opposite happens and the price goes low low low and the mathematical calculations say that the price is getting too low and may reverse soon you'll see a dive into the bottom side of this meter and so what we can see is that right now it's at a minus 4.87 guys the lowest that it can go is a minus 5 and this is i believe the lowest that we have seen nvidia's price meter this year so one thing that we can actually do is we can go turn on the price meter heat map which is going to show us how nvidia's price meter has looked in the past you see this uh here look let me let me do this real quick do you see that like red and green band behind the price that's showing me where the price meter was in the past and what we can see is that there were moments in which its price meter came down towards these lower levels but never this low so if you keep an eye on this number as i hover over these different sections like right here for example the lowest that we got was minus 4.02 never down to 4.87 back here the lowest point that we got to was a 3 point minus 3.78 not that low right here was a minus 3.86 we didn't get that low if we go back to even earlier during the year back here the lowest that we got was a minus 3.95 there so not that low i mean yeah nvidia hasn't been to a minus 4.87 in what easily could be you know over two years and maybe it was back here honestly in like the liberation day times minus 4.57 no minus 4. yeah i mean i can't even find i don't want to bore you guys by looking but i can't even find the last time that nvidia got to a minus 4.8 the lowest i'm seeing is a minus 4.5 and what that means is that this is the most overextended to the downside in terms of price action that nvidia has been in years in years and it makes sense obviously right i mean this is a really big scandal this is a really big thing but i definitely do think that in a moment like this it does provide some potential opportunity because think about it right we're in a moment right now where the price is heavily correcting to the downside it's now the lowest the most overextended that it's been in years we also if we turn our liquidity zones back on real quick can see that we are very very quickly approaching a big patch of buyers 166 160 i mean this is where those buyers have really shown their strength recently they held this entire zone for over a year before pushing nvidia's price back up so we're approaching the key zone of support we have an extreme overextension on the price meter we don't quite have any momentum signals flashing yet um we don't have them flashing quite yet let's get those back on here we go we don't have any momentum signals flashing like we did right here right here and right here so it definitely could mean that the price may have a little bit more to go towards the downside but overall if you are somebody who does still believe in nvidia from a macro perspective and you do believe that fundamentally it is going to be a company that's going to you know maintain and it's going to overcome this and it's going to be able to push forward i do think that you are very clearly seeing nvidia falling into a buy zone if you guys watch my personal channel you guys know that i say it all the time anytime an asset that i'm personally interested in does see its price meter fall below a minus 3.5 that is going to signal me to start looking for some purchase opportunities and all i'm really looking for is this bad boy to come down into some support zones come down in some liquidity zones and start getting some momentum signals so we're not there quite yet right we haven't gotten the momentum signals quite yet but it wouldn't shock me if we do see them start flashing soon here on the daily time frames because what you can actually see is that we're getting them on the four hour every time that nvidia tries to go for a pullback these momentum signals flash and the price goes for a bit of a bounce so the buyers are clearly present you can see and that's what it means right that's what a momentum signal means is that the buyers are trying to gain momentum and you can see that the buyers are present and so it honestly wouldn't shock me whatsoever to see the buyer start to step in pretty soon here and i do again think that this could be a great opportunity so when i look at do my overall analysis and i kind of remove the fundamentals for a second and i look at it from purely just a technical perspective i do genuinely believe that nvidia is in a great opportunistic moment right now to start maybe potentially doing some small purchases and start doing some small dollar cost averages again we're not seeing these momentum signals on the daily time frame yet and so you're always going to want to be careful usually for nvidia that is the signal that the bounce is coming right we got the momentum signal the bounce momentum signal bounce momentum signal bounce and look sometimes it happens when it doesn't but on these bigger moves usually you're going to want to look for those momentum signals so i personally would be taking this very slow i maybe wouldn't be going in and doing any big big purchases right now but slowly starting to work into this nvidia position if you still believe in the company fundamentally after everything that has happened i do think that that makes a lot of sense obviously i'm not a financial advisor and the ta toolkit is not a financial advice tool it's just a research tool so take this all with a grain of salt it's all just my opinion and perspective on what i'm saying right now hey i will remind you all real quick that tomorrow we are going to be hosting 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