No agreement on Iran’s nuclear program : Analysis

[0:00] well i'm now joined in the studio by hassan ahmadian he's an associate professor at the [0:05] university of tehran good to have you with me here in the studio so professor first of all [0:09] let's take apart some of these lines that have been dropping fast and furious in the last couple [0:13] of hours donald trump saying iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely how [0:22] likely is it that iran has agreed in in your understanding to suspend its entire nuclear [0:28] program indefinitely there's nothing that has been agreed so far on the nuclear program but why then [0:36] would the u.s president make this kind of statement if iran is is iran going to come out and say we [0:41] haven't done this i think the negotiations that are uh to uh basically restart uh with the mediation of [0:48] pakistan are about this so there's no negotiations now that he basically forced the ceasefire which was [0:57] uh supposed to happen and you know parallel to iran's ceasefire it was a regional ceasefire [1:04] agreement with the unfreezing of iranian assets for iran to that's what the mediator of pakistan [1:10] said yes in their understanding iran and pakistan said so but uh israel violated it and so iran said [1:17] that wartime situation in the hormuz will continue now with the ceasefire in lebanon talks of unfreezing [1:25] iran's assets the uh strait of hormuz being dealt with differently by iran not that different we'll [1:31] talk in a minute about the strait of hormuz but i want to finish first these lines about what donald [1:36] trump is saying has been agreed and he's saying we will go in at a leisurely pace to recover uranium [1:41] which we think refers to the 60 plus enriched uranium again how likely or from your understanding [1:48] is it that iran will agree to allow us i guess forces to go in and recover enriched uranium to [1:58] that degree yeah i wanted to get to this point so so far nuclear is uh subject to discussion there's no [2:04] agreement on anything on the nuclear file right there are ideas uh mediated by pakistan back and [2:11] forth between and iran the united states but there's no agreement i can say that with certainty [2:17] but iran basically has a red line on its nuclear program you can't just ask it to indefinitely freeze [2:25] its enrichment because that's a right it has in accordance with international law with the treaty [2:30] the non-none the mpt basically and so it's not willing to give it up uh and i think him talking about [2:40] iran giving up its uranium is also unrealistic the iranians came up with ideas before the war [2:47] and i think they are sticking with those ideas that's what i was going to say it was reported [2:51] before the war through the omani mediators that there had been a breakthrough in handing over the [2:56] plus 60 percent enriched uranium it's not handing over it's bringing it down diluting it to 20 percent [3:04] and then to 3.67 percent which is uh for peaceful purposes only according to the the iaea and so so you [3:15] don't think it's realistic that the that they will now agree to the u.s going in there and taking [3:20] there's there there's a threshold to getting into an agreement on this okay for two reasons the iranians [3:28] are saying this is our right and second they they are not that they don't have that much of stockpile [3:34] to give this off and then when the united states violates its its commitments then to enrich again they [3:41] don't have much uranium so it's not all right let's talk let's talk about the straits of hormuz and the [3:46] u.s president also saying iran has agreed to never close the straits of hormuz again again how likely is [3:51] that do you think well that's i think depends on how the united states acts basically when there was [3:58] agreement as i said they violated it in two basic uh you know points lebanon and then the unfreezing of [4:06] assets iran also said we are not bound to it now if the united states it's to is to violate its [4:13] commitments i can see that the iranians will also go back to where they were well he's already saying [4:20] that iran will not receive any frozen funds from the u.s so is it likely that the iranians will take [4:26] that step without any promise of unfreezing their assets i can't imagine a scenario in which the iranians [4:33] would have done so without you know receiving promises from the mediators that this will happen [4:39] because that was a package offered to iran and iran accepted it and based on it started dealing [4:46] with the united states indirectly through pakistan and went to the negotiations now that iran is [4:52] announcing that the situation in the strait is changing i can imagine that there is a an agreement [4:58] on this so i'm listening to everything you're saying professor and this is what i'm wondering now [5:02] it basically sounds like you're saying pretty much everything that the u.s president has announced [5:07] is not accurate is not correct why are we not hearing anything from the iranian side i think [5:12] that silence tell us something well the the silence is basically uh not that uh weird when it comes to [5:19] tehran because they they're not uh within uh the mood of president trump who just basically comes out and [5:27] you know gives different announcements i suspect that the iranians will come out with uh with their [5:33] narrative there have been some points right or you know being raised by uh people in tehran but it's [5:40] the official line it's friday today so you will hear more this new maritime shall we call it arrangement [5:50] is iran going to be able to enforce that long term without the objections of other states because [5:55] it it pushes the maritime traffic into iranian territorial waters does that not violate the un [6:01] convention on the law of the seas articles 37 to 39 that talk about the right of unimpeded passage for [6:08] ships yeah sure you see if you put it in that light of course but the reality is that the deepest [6:16] road goes through iran's territorial water so iran is not changing the route for that purpose it [6:24] doesn't need but before february 28th the ships were not restricted to only that passage i know [6:29] but there is a change right but the but the ships that are heavy or heavier they usually go through [6:35] iran's territorial water because it's deeper so they don't need to change anything they can just [6:41] you know uh in accordance with international law observe what's going in and out and they have said [6:47] uh what with with the announcement by mr araqji they have said that it's the uh supreme national [6:54] security council's uh you know announcement that is to be observed firstly that passage is only for [7:01] innocent uh passage for ships that are commercial or energy related not military and secondly they should [7:09] be observed by iran's navy all right so it's basically that same announcement that was announced before [7:15] well i have so many more questions but i'm already being told that the time is up i apologize we're [7:20] going to have to leave it there professor ahmad uh hassan ahmadian professor from the university [7:25] of tehran thank you so much for coming in