MICROSOFT & GOOGLE EARNINGS RELEASE 4PM! STOCK MARKET HOLD?

[00:00:00] Speaker ?: I'll see you next time. I'll see you next time. I'll see you next time. [00:01:28] Speaker 1: All right. Good afternoon, good evening, and hello. It is beginner trading here, and we have the Fed meeting in T-55 minutes. We did get news just now, and so if you're looking at markets and you're like, yo, why is the market moving like it is right now? There's a couple different reasons, to be honest. Some people are saying it's algorithms. It's not algorithms. What we got is we got Iran's foreign minister. What is his name? Is it Araji? Araji? Something like that. The Iran foreign minister says, while our brave armed forces are fully prepared to defend the homeland, Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed. We remain in close and ongoing contact with intermediaries to review ideas that can ensure implementation of our seven-day plan in even less than one week. And so, again, we remain in close contact with intermediaries to review ideas to implement its seven-day plan in less than a week. So, basically, potential peace coming to the Middle East, according to Iran's foreign minister this time, which is a good sign. You know, now, markets did move a little bit. If you take a look at oil here on this news release, oil did drop initially before it got bounced right back up. It's at $102.93. So, oil did drop from this. But, again, like most things in this Fed day market, it did not hold. Here's the NASDAQ here. So, the NASDAQ went up originally on this as well. Did it go up a lot? No. But it did go up some. Here's the NQ. Here's the green move from when this news was announced. You can correlate the times here. This news came out about 9 minutes ago. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14. Yeah, really, it came out about 10 to 15 minutes ago. What's interesting is, like, some markets digested this early. But this is what's moving markets. Again, Iran's foreign minister saying, you know, Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed. That's essentially what's going on here. Now, today, we do have the FOMC decision. You're going to get banned pretty quickly in here on. Please stop spamming here, dude. Speaking Hindi, bro. I love to the Indian people. Does it look like I speak Hindi, brother? You know? Like, I'm sorry. I don't. I don't. I'm from South Louisiana, dude. I don't know any of that language. Respect, but I don't know any of that language. Please stop spamming in my stream, bro. Anyways. Hello, ShakeItBake, Falco, StopLoss, Pew. MyPadel. Hello. StopLoss. DXSavage. What's up, dude? Gene. Matthias. Danielle. Chamal. Sandy. Wolf. Stanley. Kehory. What's up, dude? Shala. Hello. Frizzy. Gold for the win. He was late. Now I can't trade. Game over. It's game over. What the WTF? Sign up for tardiness. Three digit, my guy. What's up, Haddo? Speak in German, please. All I know is curse words in German. All I know are curse words in German. What's up, Faye? What's up, Arif? Skygirl. Why? Cancel beginner training. He's not a multi-language guy. I know, dude. It's time. It's time. I should have learned Hindi a long time ago. I chose not to. And I deserve to be punished for that, I believe, today. Yeah, Bullishize. Three digit. That's all I know, bro. That's all I got. And I know how to say no. I vote Elvish. I might know more Elvish than I know Hindi, brother. But yeah, today we got the FOMC decision. It is 90% likely that we pause interest rates. A lot of people are like, yo, we're going to raise rates today. I don't think we're going to raise rates. If we do raise rates, the market's almost certainly going down here. So if we raise rates today, the market's probably not going to like it. You know, we raise rates and have a hawkish, hawkish, warsh, market's probably really not going to like that. But I think it's overwhelmingly probable that we are not going to raise rates today. I think it's very likely that we are going to pause rates today. The odds have gone down for a rate hike since I talked about it a few hours ago. The odds of a rate hike are currently only 7.2% right now in markets. We got a 7.2% chance of a hike today. According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, a 93% chance that we pause interest rates. And so a pause is overwhelmingly likely. I do not think we're going to raise rates today. I believe we're probably going to raise rates in December. And I think most people do as well. Now, here's the thing, all right, so if we are expected to pause rates today, what's going to matter is how many dissenters were there, if any, regarding that rate decision in terms of a pause, right? If we keep rates the same today, do we have any dissenters in the Fed that would have chose? I don't think anybody's going to dissent in favor of a cut. I don't think that's very likely. Even though we've seen some weakness in the labor market, non-farm payrolls were a little bit weaker than expected. They showed up at 30,000 or so last time. They were expected at 80 or 90K. They showed up at 30K, but I don't think we're going to have any dissenters in favor of a cut today. And so if we do have dissenters in the Fed today, it's going to be in favor of a hike. I think if we pause today, the dissenters are going to say, yo, we should have hiked, basically is what we might see if we get dissenters. And I'm trying to think of who the dissenters might be. Could it be Logan or Kashkari potentially being one of the dissenters? I don't know. But will we have dissenters? Remember, this is not the summary of economic projections Fed meeting. So we do not have a summary of economic projections today. We do have Kevin Warsh speaking at 230. We do have big tech earnings after this, but we do not get an SEP. We do not get a dot plot today. That happens every other meeting. In the last meeting, we got a summary of economic projections and a dot plot. And so what that means for today is that we are not getting one today. Uh, and so attention is going to pivot to what Kevin Warsh has got to say during the actual press conference. Now, if you know Kevin Warsh task forces, you know, but if you don't Kevin Warsh, he doesn't like to give forward guidance here. So he does not believe in giving forward guidance. And so we have a lot less base case analysis for the Fed right now under Kevin Warsh because of that. Um, and so, yeah, we'll see what happens today. I do believe we're pausing today. You can let me know in chat right now. Do you think we'll raise or, uh, let me see. What's a good poll option? Do we raise or pause today? I'm going to keep it simple. We'll do another poll as we get closer, but do we raise or pause today? Pause. Raise. Vote on the poll. Let us know how you feel. Pause, pause, pause, pause. You can say the word hike and be talking about walking and the market will dip. Who's on deck for earnings? We have Google and Microsoft earnings today. Tomorrow we have Amazon earnings. So Google and Microsoft earnings at the closing bell in three hours, Microsoft earnings and Google earnings. What are some hawkish statements you think can make the market go down? Some hawkish statements that can make a market go down. Inflation is elevated. Inflation is the priority. Uh, you know, the labor market is strong. Um, you know, what, what do you guys think? What are some hawkish statements that can move the market today? I think inflation staying elevated obviously is a, is a key one. Um, inflation, the market is strong. The economy is resilient. Uh, you know, those are my hawkish statements today. I think those are markets in which we might react negatively. I don't know how big of a negative reaction we're going to get from stuff like that, but those are the kind of quotes that I think might negatively react the market negative, cause negative reactions in markets. Yeah. No, if we raise rates today again, because it's going to be such a shock, uh, only 7% odds now that we raise rates today. If we do raise rates today, gold's definitely going down. Bitcoin's probably going down and the NASDAQ will probably go down as well. If we raise rates today, again, I don't think we're going to, but it's not 0% likely. It's not like it's 99 or 98 or 97% likely that we are going to pause. It's about 93, 92, 93% likely. So there's a chance we raise today. And again, like the going back to this thing here, Kevin Warsh does not like to give out forward guidance. So he does not like to give forward guidance. And so what that means is that markets are a little bit more like markets probably see things a little bit more ambiguous now because of the lack of guidance that we have. The, the lesser, you know, we have less base case arguments. We have less things to base it off of now. So what we're really looking at is basically the market pricing this in the market thinks we're pausing today. We've had a lot of comments from fed members that support that thesis, but it's definitely, we're definitely not tied to it. We could hike. I don't think we're going to, but we could, it's not like it's incredibly low odds that we hike. I think, you know, there's 5% chance we hike, which is not nothing. It's not nothing. I don't think we're going to, but I mean, obviously with 95%, 97%, 93% likelihood of a pause today. I mean, nobody thinks we're going to apparently. Gold, silver, gap up, gout down. What do you think? I think gold will react positive to dovishness in markets. And so I think if we have dovish statements, gold will go up. If we have hawkish statements, gold will go down. Same thing with Bitcoin. I think with Bitcoin, we have dovish statements. Dovish statements would be like inflation is getting better. We're not seeing secondary effects of oil-driven inflation. We're not seeing, you know, crazy prices. You know, the Iran conflict might end soon. He's not going to say this, but I think those are dovish statements. Um, you know, and more dovish statements are like the labor market could be weak. You know, we're seeing weakness in the labor market. We're seeing contractions in the economy. Stuff like that is also dovish. And it might cause gold to react positively. It might cause the NASDAQ to react positively. It might cause Bitcoin to react positively. If we look at Bitcoin here, here's BTC. Bitcoin at 80,400s right now. So Bitcoin was green when I first looked at it on the day. It has since pulled back some here. Last time he paused, when he said he would hike, it was a keyword. I don't know, dude. I don't think he did. I think the last time, last time we had like a 40% chance of a hike, but it wasn't very, like it wasn't the majority likelihood as we approached the Fed meeting. I'm assuming you're talking about not last meeting, but the meeting before last. And the meeting before last, he said, or markets essentially priced in like 40% chance of a hike. Again, at the time, if you guys remember me with this, I talked about how I thought markets were overpricing in a hike. I thought we were going to pause and I thought gold would go up. And I did buy gold during this period of time before this happened. And then exactly that happened where we paused. Markets reacted, dovishness showed up, gold like popped up. I made, I made a bunch from it. This one, I mean, this one, I think the dovishness is already baked in to a certain extent. I, you know, because the odds are definitely less split than they were during that specific meeting. Again, it wasn't the last meeting. It was a meeting before last. I don't know if there's that type of edge in markets right now, all things considered. If we take a look at gold here, gold is starting to head down a little bit. And again, some of the big news breaking in markets is that Iran's foreign ministers said, you know, they're going to give diplomacy a chance. Basically, Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed and more. Michael Burry sees echoes of a stock market he has studied before. I mean, maybe, maybe there's echoes of a stock market he studied before. I don't know. But here we go, guys. It's almost time. It's almost time. Again, I think we paused today. I think it's a hawkish pause. And so my outlook today, and again, let me know what you guys think. But I think it's a hawkish pause today. I think we paused. I think Kevin Warsh has a hawkish tone. I think maybe we see some sell-offs in gold. Maybe we see some sell-offs in Bitcoin. But I don't know if they're going to be deep sell-offs. Because I think the market already is essentially pricing this dynamic in already. And so I think markets are already kind of pricing this in. I don't think we have some big surprise reaction unless we raise rates. Like, I don't think we have some crazy big surprise reaction here. But, you know, maybe we do. You know, you could consider all of this stuff. Maybe we do. Maybe we don't. We'll see. Hike is on the cards. Yeah, I mean, we could. It's not likely, but we could. Inflation is sticky and he will talk in circles. Iran, give. Mr. London. What about the fact that the Fed came out with an announcement to increase its buying of long-term bonds to provide liquidity? What about a big cut to give liquidity to the AI trade? Yeah, but I... You know, they might try to stimulate the bond market in some ways. I don't think they're going to cut, though, today. In fact, cut odds are just not even on the table. And so they might be trying to lower yields through stimulation in that way. But, again, it's still... The big key here with all of this is the Iran conflict, right? Because of this Iran conflict, oil is incredibly elevated. Today, oil alone is at $103 a barrel for WTI crude. Brent crude is at, what, like $110 right now? $115? Yeah, Brent crude is at $115 right now. And so oil's high. You know, we did have CPI and PPI inflation show up last week. So if you guys remember last week... Was it last week? Or was it the week before that? We recently had CPI and PPI inflation data for September. And that data did show higher than expected inflation on both PPI, which is producer wholesale business prices, and CPI, which is consumer prices. So that's consumer inflation is CPI. They both showed hotter than expected numbers here. So higher inflation. In the context of that, in the current landscape of things, a cut is basically off the table. Like, we're not cutting today. That's the question is, do we hike? And I think the Fed is probably taking a meeting, is trying to balance it with, you know, we did a rate hike, we did the first rate hike in years, in the last meeting. And so this meeting, they are basically raising rates, pausing today, and then raising again in December is what I think the path is, most likely. Microsoft will dump. What do you think about the direction of market after decision today? Microsoft Google after hours will be an active session. Yeah, the next three hours in markets, guys, is going to be really, really interesting. So the next three hours in markets is going to be incredibly interesting here today. So just be careful today, guys. We got a lot of stuff going on. We're in the middle of earnings season. We have Microsoft and Google numbers dropping after the closing bell. ServiceNow numbers dropping after the closing bell. Carvana numbers. Chipotle numbers. FedEx. T-Mobile numbers dropping after the closing bell today. We got the Fed meeting. We got Kevin Warsh and more. So just be careful. Yeah, that's all I'm going to say is just be careful. We're going to cover it. We're going to stream the entire press conference live as we do here. But it's something you want to be wary of. I see your point, man. I'm just feeling a little bit gamblish. Hey, dude, listen. Gamble. Gamble away. I mean, I'm not here to stop you. That's not my job. But we're not cutting today. You know? We're not cutting today. Pump after dump. Microsoft will dump. Man, this market is crazy. NASDAQ back to where it was. Bulls are getting smashed. Yeah. I mean, look. So this market right here, again, is after the Iran foreign minister basically called for diplomacy. Oil reacted negatively. Markets pushed up. Crypto reacted well. Gold pushed up. But they've basically retraced that entire move at this point in time. Which is what you should come to expect from geopolitical updates at this point. Like, this is what we see here. We see big moves up. Big turnarounds the other way. And so algorithms, you know, scooping it up. Trading off of the initial news. Maybe some insider trading going on there, to be honest. A cut would trigger a crash. I don't know if a cut would trigger a crash. Here's a question for the chat. Here's a question. If we cut today, which, again, we're not freaking doing. We're not cutting today. But if we did, which we're not going to. Again, I feel obligated to clarify this and to really reinforce that. We're not cutting today. But if we did, how would markets respond? Number one, gold and Bitcoin might actually react positively. The NASDAQ, I don't know. I don't know. I don't think we show enough weakness in the labor market right now to make people concerned about a cut necessarily here. But, again, I don't know what kind of reactions we'll get. Cutting no way. Cut will crash. A cut usually causes blood. But what do I know? So we're cutting today? VA, stop it, bro. Stop it, dude. Kevin Warsh coming in like a hot, like, King Green. Bro, King Green, I mean, he's just, his chin is gone, dude. I want to see him do well, but his chin is over with. You know? On some point they will. It would spike up and almost immediately overcorrect. Yeah, I can kind of get down with what Keith says, which if we cut today, it would spike up and almost immediately overcorrect to the downside. I agree with that sentiment. You know, if we cut today, a lot of attention would focus. We're not cutting. Again, we're not freaking cutting. But if we did cut today, a lot of the attention would pivot to, you know, what Kevin Warsh has to say. How does he justify that is what a lot of people would argue. Again, I think the real question today is do we raise rates? And if we don't, which is most likely, what does the sentiment look like in the Fed meeting? Like, do we get any forward guidance? Do we get any updates there? Pause and rip and rip. Let's get real. If we pause, what will happen to the market? John, the first thing I did is like. Hey, thank you, Daniel. I appreciate it, bro. They're going to raise 2% and raise rates 2%. 200 basis points, brother. That's a bold move, Cotton. You know, I just don't. I mean, it's not happening. But that would be a bold move. I would be here with popcorn if that did happen, dude. Because the market would freak the hell out for sure. If we. Something's getting cut today. It's not the Fed rates, but something's getting cut. The cheese getting cut? Maybe so. The cheese for sure. Troy Black said the market was going to crash before the election. He has millions of viewers. False prophecy. Yeah, I mean, we haven't even corrected really yet. A correction is 10%. NASDAQ, S&P are neither down 10%. NASDAQ is really pretty green today on SK Hynix earnings. The problem is earnings season preceded the election. Go bald if the NASDAQ hits 30k? No, dude. I got my dad's hair, bro. My mother's father was bald at 25. My dad's 70-something. Still got a full head of hair. So, I got my dad's hair. Luckily. They say it comes from your mom's dad, but that's nonsense. Because I got my dad's hair for sure. NVIDIA is starting to break down, though, here. So, here's NVIDIA starting to dip. Here's the S&P right now. S&P, 7730s. Mostly a green day, though, today. So, mostly green day. Again, SK Hynix reported earnings last night. Did really, really well. Boosted the chip markets as we approach into this. But, yeah, SK Hynix did really well. MU, SanDisk. You know, they're all still green on the day here. Here's MU, here's SanDisk. Again, Microsoft ahead of earnings. Google ahead of earnings. They're both pretty green on the chip. An AI move as well. Is it time to buy the dip? I don't know here, man. Here's the thing about earnings today. Alright. The thing about earnings today, guys. The thing about it is that lately, tech stocks that aren't chip-related, like Microsoft. I mean, they're chip-related. But, you know, Microsoft, Google, and more. Hyper-scalers have seen weird reactions in which we've had good results and negative reactions. Meta is a good example of this. Meta reacted negatively to their earnings report, even though there were relatively good numbers. Some fears and worries there. But, you know, with the Fed meeting coming out and the press conference and all that stuff, and then Google and Microsoft earnings at the closing bell today. Again, the price action could get spicy here. Breakout or fakeout? I don't know, dude. The market of Paul's is a cut. It would be short-term. Yeah, I think of Paul's is dovish, but I think of Paul's is baked into the market already here. So, I think of Paul's is already expected in markets. What's going to matter is what Kevin Warsh has got to say. Whether he says hawkish or dovish things, the statements under Kevin Warsh have been incredibly short as well. So, we've seen incredibly short statements from Kevin Warsh and the Fed. Like, if you look at the last statement here by the Federal Reserve. Alright, so, like, here's the last statement. Bro, I could read this in less than 10 seconds. Again, the committee decided to raise the target range for the Fed funds rate by a quarter percentage to three and a quarter percentage rates. In support of the Federal Reserve dual mandate, the committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves and the banking system. Economic activity is expanded at a solid pace while uncertainty remains elevated. Only in part to geopolitical developments. Domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth is strong. Capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce and the unemployment rate has changed little. That's basically the whole statement. That is basically the entire statement. It's noticeably shorter. So, if you look at the statements under Jerome Powell. Here's a Jerome Powell statement. Alright. So, like, the current statements are about half of what the Jerome Powell statements were. They're literally about half. Here's the Jerome Powell statements. Here's the Kevin Warsh statements. And so, they're noticeably shorter now. Noticeably shorter. And this is what I'm saying here. Is that, like, look. Odds or price again? 90% chance of a pause today. The only big question mark, if we're trying to predict what rates are going to be here, is, like, is the lack of forward guidance by Kevin Warsh indicative of a potential shock moving forward in terms of Fed decisions? Like, we'll learn that here and, I guess, moving forward. Since we have less forward guidance by the Fed, we're basically leaving it up to markets now to decide what we're going to do at this point in time. You know, we don't have much guidance by the Federal Reserve. And so, at this point in time, the real question, again, is, are we going to see more shocks than we normally did under Jerome Powell in terms of rate decisions versus odds, right? 10% chance we hike today. If we hike today, it will confirm that argument. If we do not hike today, maybe, you know, the odds are still getting it right. But, again, I've covered every Fed meeting for years and years now. The Fed watch tool has not been wrong once. You know, it genuinely has not been wrong once. Last time, they thought we would hike, and we hiked. The time before that, it was, like, 60%, 70% likelihood of a pause, and we paused. And so, the Fed watch tool has not been wrong yet in years of me watching it. But, with less forward guidance by Kevin Warsh, maybe it's different this time. I don't freaking know. Yeah, I don't know. It took me 20 seconds. It definitely didn't take 56 seconds. I am an auctioneer, bro. I'm an auctioneer of these markets, dude. It may be chop. SoFi? Yeah, I'm in SoFi. Short the dips. Seagate went crazy. Can we get an AI Warsh? Cutting rates at least. Everyone short semis. Yeah, if we look at the December odds here in terms of the Fed watch tool. Right? So, here's December. If we're looking at December odds at this point in time. Right? Last time I looked, they were like 84% likely. Here's December. So, yeah. You add up this. I mean, this is basically a 25. Or, wait. We're here now. Aren't we? Let me make sure I get my rates right. Yeah. 3.75% to 4%. Okay. So, the likelihood that we're going to end the year with just one more 25 basis point hike is 77.7%. Basically, 78% likely that the Fed watch tool is pricing in essentially a pause today or a hike today. It's not really. I mean, we're not hiking. That's not what it's pricing in. But, there's a 78% chance that we end the year with just 25 basis points in higher rates than we have now. Meaning, we're probably hiking in December but pausing today. 78% likelihood of that. Now, this is always subject to change depending on what kind of economic data we get. Depending on what comes out. Depending on, you know, all the different things going on in the Middle Eastern conflict. Oil. Like, I think, you know, we're going to see a lot. If, for some... Oh, again, we got the news today from the Iran foreign minister. Markets haven't really bought up much on this, though. They haven't really held in either direction. But, Iran's foreign minister 35 minutes ago said, While our brave armed forces are fully prepared to defend the homeland, Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed. We remain in close and ongoing contact with the intermediaries to review ideas that can ensure implementation of our seven-day plan in even less than a week. Which is an optimistic statement for potential peace in the Middle East. And so, if this turns out to be true, again, take it with a grain of salt. It might... You know, odds are against this. But, if it turns out to be true, hike odds, obviously, for December are going to go down dramatically. You know, maybe even cut odds might start showing up on the table in terms of the odds because of all of this. Right? So, I think that's the way you have to look at this. But, yeah, we'll see. Let me catch up with the chat here. Being honest, I think the move already happened to 772 and SPY. Now, just a little pump and correction. Yeah, I mean, markets are basing in... They're getting baked into a pause today and probably a hawkish wash is what I think. Like, I think markets are just getting baked into, you know, hawkish wash. A pause today, but a hawkish Kevin wash. That's what I think, personally. And, again, obviously, if we surprise markets and we end up raising rates 25 basis points today, then markets are probably going to negatively react to this. So far, it's been a typical FOMC day in markets. The NASDAQ incredibly choppy, but we have this range here. You know, we do have Kevin Warsh speaking at 230. We got 25 minutes until the actual rate decision. And then, again, Kevin Warsh speaks at 230. We'll see if he says anything relevant. To be honest, he doesn't say much anymore. In terms of the path. And the real question I have with, like, all of this is, like, okay. Like, look. He doesn't give out forward guidance. If you don't give out forward guidance, what is the purpose of the FOMC meeting? Like, what is the purpose of the FOMC press conference? You know what I mean? Like, because basically what I see now... And, again, I'm not criticizing Warsh. There's things that Warsh does that I agree with. There's things he does that I disagree with. But I don't dislike Warsh. But my question here is, like, okay. If we're not giving out any type of base case argument, any type of future rate path, what's the point of the Q&A? What's the point of the question and answer? What's the point of the Q&A? Like, we're getting really vague, generic responses. It doesn't really mean anything. You know, and maybe we do get some stuff from him. And I'm not one. Like, listen, I like covering these. And we get a lot of engagement on my channel from covering the press conference. Just, if we're not giving out forward guidance, what's the point of it? What are you going to say? You know? We get updates on quantitative tightening, quantitative easing. You know, the Fed's balance sheet is basically still in a pause scenario where they're not expanding it. They're not decreasing it in terms of QE and printing. They're just keeping it the same. Maybe we'll get an announcement on, I don't know if we're going to get QT. You know, quantitative tightening is essentially when the Fed create, quantitative tightening. Let me explain quantitative easing. It'll be easier. Quantitative easing is when you expand the, when they expand the Fed balance sheet through asset purchases. This is usually a more desperate thing. If the economy is super weak and it's looking like we're headed towards a recession, the labor market struggling, all that stuff. They can print. They did this in 2020. They did it in 2007. They did it a few times in between there. But it causes inflation. You know, it does cause inflation to jump with money printing. Printing money causes inflation, some people say. Quantitative tightening is when the Fed reduces their balance sheet, removes that liquidity from it. And they will do this if inflation is a big concern. And so maybe we'll hear some updates on quantitative tightening and whether they're doing stuff like that. I really don't know. I really don't know. We'll see. Generally speaking, we would always get those statements in the FOMC statement that we normally get. The one that drops at 2 p.m. That details what the Fed decision was and all that. But again, with the Fed statement so small here now, you know, this is the last Fed statement. You know, the only real, the only real info we got is this here. This was it. This is all that really could move markets here. And so maybe we'll get an announcement of it there, but. I think crypto will go down and get our y'all bullish or bearish on this Fed meeting today. Guys, bullish or bearish. I asked the chat. We got about 400 votes in a few minutes. 73% say we're going to pause today. 27 of you guys are probably wrong. But that's okay. We welcome all positions and opinions here. So that's fine. But are y'all bullish or bearish on this Fed meeting today, guys? Bearish. Bearish. Neutral. Bullish. He'll say nothing. For me, it's all about Google, Microsoft. I'm bullish. Appals is bullish. Bull market, baby. Neutral. Print money. Real life soap opera. Expecting hawkish sentiment. Again, that's baked in already. Got me long biased. If there's a sell-off, especially with earnings in play, but I'm watching for a confirmed move. I don't hate that. Yeah, I don't hate that. It's all just a scam. John, I think it's going to be a pause. Market giving us signal to pump. If there is another hike, do you expect the market to heal up as usual? I think if we raise today, the initial reaction is going to be negative. I think the initial reaction, especially in like Bitcoin and crypto, which are really rate sensitive right now. I mean, obviously, a rate hike is going to push yields higher, going to push interest rates higher, pushing interest rates sentiment higher. Yields are going to go up, of course. I think the reaction, because of all the fears that we've had in yields, would be a negative one. Now, how much it moves, it would also be negative, partly because it would be such a shock, considering the odds right now. But again, the Fed's not really in the business, I think, of shocking markets. I just don't think they shock markets. I think almost always, when the Fed makes a decision, we know what the answer is going to be, prior to the Fed meeting. In fact, the last time we raised rates, it was almost split, but it was still, mostly probable, that we were going to raise last meeting. And so, it wasn't that big of a shock. I think if we raise rates today, considering the less than 10% likelihood of that, that would be a much bigger jolt to the system, in terms of markets. You know, again, if we take a look at yields, guys, if we take a look at yields, here's 10-year treasury yields right now. Again, 10-year treasury yields are back over 5%. If you want to watch what the Fed does, two-year yields are probably a little bit better. But here's the 10-year yields, right? We're at 5.02% right now, for 10-year yields. This morning, they dipped under 4.9, some points this morning, but we're at 5.02%. If you look at two-year yields, which more closely follow Fed decisions, I mean, we're at 4.76% likely, but these yields are up today. So we do have a little bit, maybe a more hawkish sentiment leading into it. But yeah, I mean, the ASDAQ is really quiet. Markets are really quiet. We're all just kind of waiting for this data to drop. And we'll see. Again, we'll see what happens. This will be such nothing that I just bought. Going to hike. Why Trump gave war news to offset. I don't know what you're saying. The Canada kid. Yeah, I'm going to play the whole thing live charity. We're going to watch the whole thing live here for sure. Yeah. Do me a favor. Hit that like button as well. Help grow the stream here, chat. We appreciate it. My NASDAQ short turned green. I trimmed it. How long can you keep denying economic reality? Nothing burger with cheese. Yeah, maybe Spence. Canada raise. USA will raise. Not blowing my funded. I'm waiting until 145. To get back on charts. Letting the dust settle first. Yeah, I don't, it wasn't Trump. I mean, it was, we do have some news from Iran. But again, markets aren't really buying it. You know, so we had this news from Iran's foreign minister, Arachi, or however you pronounce it. And again, oil originally went down on this news. And then now it's just kind of, I mean, it is net lower here. It's more optimistic, but oil is still very high. I mean, it's still at 102. So it didn't push oil back under a hundred or anything like that. The NASDAQ reacted positively as well, but the NASDAQ did not hold its gains here. So here's the NASDAQ move. When that news came out about Iran's foreign minister saying they're going to give diplomacy a chance. But again, we are now net red from this news. Actually in the NASDAQ, the S and P. I mean, if you look at the S and P it's, it's a very similar thing here. Here's the S and P 500. Again, S and P is basically flat from this news release. So again, markets aren't really buying it right now. They're not really moving that much from it. The news initially moved markets, but, but yeah, meta continues to fall though. We did buy the dip in meta here, but it's kind of a long-term hold. That actually solves a lot of problems of moving rates up. Chicago bullish. Where are you guys watching the stream from today? Where are you guys from? I'm curious to see what the makeup is here. You know, we got a lot of overseas viewers, a lot of viewers in general around the world here for our morning streams. I'm curious to see what the FOMC streams make up. Where are you watching the stream from today, guys? We'll be for the 102nd time. Chicago. What's up, Rip? Chi-town. A lot of Chicago guys. Albania, Pakistan, Dubai, Romania, New York, Wyoming, Canada, Finland, New Zealand, UK, Philippines, LA, New York. Get the car keys. Is that, is that New Jersey? I don't know. New York City, Earth, Philly. Philly. Washington State, Montreal, New Orleans, my friend. Hey, go Tigers, bro. The Saints are doing it for me this year. I'm from Baton Rouge, but the Saints are not doing it for me this year. So I'm, I'm, I'm putting all my hope in the Tigers this year. Lane Kiffin, bring us the playoffs. You know, I don't really want to talk about it. I don't want to talk about the Saints, but, but hey, Kenya, Washington State, China, China, Nepal, Antarctica, India, Norway. Never count on Lane Kiffin. Yeah, I heard he's going to be the new Ayatollah. That's what I heard. He's going to, he accepted a deal with them. He's leaving LSU. Uh, Phoenix, London. Hey, go Tigers. Dubai, Holland. Yeah, I saw your comments on China. Yeah, I did see the comments. Yeah, I did. From my mom's basement. Bro, I'm going to tell you this, dude. Listen, I'm from Louisiana. All right. We don't have basements in Louisiana. There's too much moisture in the ground. So, you know, it's like, it's like, this might age me a little bit, a little bit. It's like Pee Wee Herman's Big Adventure. All right. In the basement of the Alamo. Like, we don't have a basement, sir. Okay. Uh, South Carolina. Hey, what's up guys? All right. We got the Fed meeting today. Gold is breaking down here. Gold is breaking down. Tell them large margin sent you. That's right. You know, you know, I mean, you said roll tide five minutes before that, but that's okay. I accept that, you know. All right. Here's gold. Gold break it down here. Watch 4,050. Yeah. Florida, Italy, South Carolina. What's up guys? Good morning. Fort Polk. South Park. I'm sure betting rate hike happens. We'll see. Is anybody betting on a rate hike today in markets? Who's betting on a rate hike today? Again, we're not getting one, but who's betting on what? What if they pause the rate? How will gold react? If they pause, gold's probably already baked into a pause reaction. If they pause, depending on the statement, I think it's going to depend on what Warsh has got to say during the actual press conference for it, even though he might not say much. But if we do pause today, pause is baked in and pause is widely expected. So I don't know if gold is going to have some big move from a pause today to be honest. So anybody betting on a hike today? [00:42:24] Speaker ?: So anybody betting on a hike today? [00:42:25] Speaker 1: Me, me, me, me, me. No hike. They're going to cut 1%, not me. $200 makes you 4k if we get a hike. Mark is going to pump. No, me. Pause is priced in. No big move to the upside. Yeah, I don't know if we get a big move either way unless we raise rates. You know, again, we can talk about Warsh. Warsh doesn't like to give forward guidance. So, you know, we can talk about Warsh. Maybe we get forward guidance from him today. I don't, I just don't think we're going to. But maybe we do. We'll have to wait and see. Maybe this time is different. Maybe he's tired of getting so much heat from not giving out forward guidance. And maybe we start to get some today. I don't know. Here guys, I don't know. Time will freaking tell. We're waiting here for sure, but. Yeah. So remember the FOMC decision is at 2 p.m. It is not a dot plot. It is not a summary of economic projections. The FOMC decision is at 2 p.m. We'll see what we get for it. But the FOMC decision 2 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. The press conference is at 2 30. And again, unless we hike today, I don't know how much movement we're really going to get from the actual decision here. Again, the Bank of Canada did raise rates 25 basis points earlier today. So we did have a BOC rate hike. But today, I don't know. Last time we had some Fed members for 50 basis point hike. Yeah, again, another big question today, guys, really, we're like realistically, do we have dissenters? I don't think we're going to have any dissenters in favor of a cut. I think if we do get dissenters, it's going to be more so in favor of a hike. I think we pause today. Maybe we have dissenters at favorite hike. Maybe Kashkari, maybe Logan. They might dissent in favor of a Hulk today. And we'll have to see if there's unity in the Fed in this regard. In terms of the rate decision today. But again, the actual rate decision happens in 12 minutes here. Now 12 minutes. Weren't the odds for a hike much higher after CP Iowa back or am I tripping? They might have gone up initially here, but they've since settled way back down. I'm sorry, the yields have gone down as well. Part of this is because we've had like a big tech sell off. Outside of today, like last week, we had a big tech sell off that everybody was nervous about. Like when tech sells off, people move money to risk off assets like bonds. And so they buy a bunch of bonds. And then in that regard, bond prices and yields inverse each other. So yields end up slowing down as people get nervous about markets and go more to risk off sentiment. But we'll see. Hike 50 basis point, the market crash. Yeah, we're not hiking 50 though. 50 is basically zero chance that we hike 50. 50 is widely 50 basis points is just, I mean, they're not going to shock the market with 50 basis points off the rip. They're just not doing that. They're just not. That's just not happening. Again, we'll see. But a 50 basis point is just not happening. All right, guys, here's gold. What assets again during the Fed decision in two minutes? What assets do you guys want on the charts? What assets do you want to, what do you want on the charts here? Like for this Fed decision, what do you want up on the chart? Again, some, some things to worry about here. If he's saying inflation remains elevated, hawkish statement. If he says inflation is a risk, the labor market is strong. The labor market showing resilient inflation might be elevated. Like we can look at the last report here to kind of digest what, what's going on to be honest. So we can look at this last report. Here's the last report. Again, hi guys. Let me check these one more time here. We still got nine minutes left. Okay. So we still have time, but again, 7.2% likely that we raise rates today. Markets are not probably like showing too much. If we look at Cauchy odds for dissenters here, Cauchy odds. Let me refresh this real quick. Cauchy is pricing in a 48% chance. We get two dissenters. So the majority likelihood here is two dissenters. There's a 39% chance. They think we get three dissenters here in markets. And again, this would be a pause today in a, in dissenters in favor of a, of a rate hike thinking inflation, secondary effects of inflation is kind of continued. Um, but if we look at the last previous fed meetings here and let's pull this up again, and here's the last one. Very short, very short. All we heard in the last meeting was economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. Again, hawkish while uncertainty remains elevated. Owing in parts of geopolitical developments, domestic spending is resilient. Productivity growth is strong. These are all hawkish statements. Capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace for the workforce and unemployment rate has changed level. Inflation remains elevated here. So you want to watch for this word. Inflation remains elevated. At least if we're digesting the statement initially is a hawkish thing. So saying inflation remains elevated, obviously is hawkish. Uh, when inflation is high, the fed has less green light to stimulate and cut interest rates. And you know, when the fed is kind of trying to push the market down a little bit, uh, that is kind of ultimately what's going on here with hawkishness. Hold on one second. Hey, All right, guys. Yeah, we got seven minutes left. Seven minutes. My wife's calling me. Worst timing ever. Worst timing ever. Um, And again, we had the minutes report and the minutes report, I would say was somewhat hawkish markets. Didn't necessarily like the minutes report here. Again, what assets do you want on the screen? I see lean hog futures, please not bro. Bitcoin cattle, gold, Bitcoin fuel costs. This is my favorite market news channel. Gold, gold, gold, Bitcoin, gold. So basically everyone's Bitcoin and gold. I'll put all three of them up here. Look, here's gold on the left. Here's Bitcoin. And we'll put the NASDAQ up here as well. All right, let's see what we get. All right, there's the NASDAQ. All right, guys, we got six minutes left here. Six minutes. Meta. I'm not putting meta up. All right, but here's all these markets. We got the NASDAQ on the right. We got Bitcoin up in the middle. We got gold on the left here. Let's see what these markets do ahead of this press release. Again, the press release might be small potatoes though. We might have bigger movement from the actual press conference unless we get a surprise hike. Bitcoin is starting to rally a little bit as we approach this though. So we are starting to go up here. We got six minutes left. Six minutes. He is going to raise interest rates. No, he's not. Yeah, I mean, we did a poll. We got over 700 votes. 72% of people think we're going to pause in that regard. 28% think we're going to raise. Again, we're not freaking, we're not raising. I don't think. I mean, we could, it's not 0%, but it's, it's lower. The likelihood of us raising is lower. I'll put this up here. All right, but here we go. Again, we're going to cover this as soon as it drops. Detail the statement. I get a lot of things to watch here. Does inflation remain elevated? Hawkish. If he says something like that. Is the labor market strong? Somewhat hawkish. Unemployment low? Somewhat hawkish. Middle East developments causing oil problems. Somewhat hawkish. Although that depends on the context. And again, I have a question here regarding everything, which is with everything going on right now. Number one, let me put it in sub only mode real quick. I don't think I'm in sub only mode. There we go. Hey, thank you. Woot. Appreciate it. With everything going on, will we get much movement from this today? I don't know. We're about to see. Oil is actually dipping down some. But will we get much movement from this? Let me know. Again, Fed is expected to hold rates steady today. Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75 to 4%. Markets focus on potential descents and changes to the FOMC statements. So analysts guys right now anticipate two or three officials could favor a hike, including Hammock, Logan, Kashkari, and possibly Waller. All right. Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and UBS expect possible reversions to language emphasizing a timelier return to the 2% inflation target. But again, right now, markets are essentially pricing in that we will get. If you look at Kaushie here, right, markets are essentially pricing in 97% likelihood of a pause on Kaushie, 3% likelihood of a hike on Kaushie. And if we look at the centers here, they're pricing in 2% to 3% dissenters, which I agree with, I think. 4 minutes left, chat. 4 minutes. The old Bitcoin's starting to revive back up here. We're moving up a little bit now. Look at Bitcoin. Bitcoin's almost up to $81,000. We'll push it back down here. I don't know. Bitcoin's still rising. Gold starting to push back up a little bit as well. Again, markets widely expect a pause today. Widely expect a pause. And so, if we do not pause today, they might freak out. We might see negative reactions, especially in gold and crypto. First move is the wrong move. 2% yield is up to most today. Yeah, we're going to watch yields from this report to see hawkish or dovish sentiment. If yields rise, just to clarify, that does mean hawkish sentiment. If yields go down, that means dovish sentiment is interpreted here. I think we're going to have hawkish pause today. I get hawkish pause. Do you guys agree? Dovish hike? I don't think that's happening. Hawkish pause? I think if we get a hike, it's going to be a hawkish hike. But it's about to release here. We got T minus two and a half minutes. NASDAQ has gone up over the last 10. Bitcoin has gone up over the last 10. Gold has risen over the last 10 here. First move is wrong. Yes. No interest will be raised. Dovish hike? Yeah, I don't think we're getting a dovish hike, dude. I don't think that's freaking happening, bro. Maybe. I'll put myself right in the center here. All right, guys. Here's Bitcoin pulling back a little bit. We got two minutes left. Let me get this ready here. All right. So we are ready. Again, the last statement, incredibly short. Incredibly short. It's time. We got two minutes left. Dovish low interest rate right in the center is the best view. Hawkish pause. Hawkish pause. Crypto will go down. Yeah, I'm going to go with Hawkish pause as well. Gold is going to tank preemptive hike. Nah, bro. I don't think so. Here we go. All right, guys. We got a minute and a half left. One and a half minutes left. We got about 2,000 people here. Hit the subscribe button if you have not already. Let's see what we've got to say here regarding this. Again, we're going to cover it as soon as it drops. Read the whole statement and then prepare for the 2.30 press conference here. But again, I'm going with a pause today. I do not think we raise rates. I think we pause. We'll see, but I think we pause today. All right, here we go. We're starting to move. We got less than a minute here. The algorithms are already starting to kind of move a little bit as we approach the actual release. 50 seconds. Again, over 90% chance we pause today. Watch for inflation remaining elevated. That's a hawkish word. Inflation elevation is a hawkish stance. Just huddle. Hawkish pause. Hawkish claws. All right, here we go. 30 seconds left, guys. 30 seconds. Here we go. 25 seconds. Hit the live button next to the play button. Make sure you're in 2x speed if you're not already. If you're delayed, hit the live button. 20 seconds now. 20 seconds. Hey, thank you, George, for the subscribe. 15 seconds here. 15 seconds. 10 seconds now. 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. 1. Here's the report. Okay, so we don't have any big, brutal crash. I'm assuming we paused interest rates today. Let's see about the dissenters here. But yeah, we paused interest rates. Yeah, so we paused interest rates. Again, Fed keeps rates 3.75% to 4% as expected. We had two dissenters in this report. Chat, two dissenters in this report. The Fed did keep rates steady as expected here. Again, two dissenters in this report. The Fed did keep rates steady as expected here. Again, they said the economic activity is expanding at a strong pace. Here's the actual statement here. The committee decided to maintain the target range. While uncertainty remains elevated, owing in part to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth is strong. The capital investment is remus. Invasive. Yeah, okay. So this is the same statement that we got last time. This is the same statement. There's nothing changed about the statement. We did have two dissenters here. Voting against the monetary policy were Lisa Cook and Beth Hammock, who preferred to raise the target range of the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point. It's genuinely the same statement. Again, this is genuinely the same statement as last time. Look, hold on. Let me show you guys the last statement here. All right, so here's the last statement here. Genuinely the same statement right now. The same statement. Here's the last statement. Here's today's statement. Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. While uncertainty remains elevated, owing in part to geopolitical developments. Conflict in the Middle East. Same thing. Productivity growth and capital investment. Is strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce. Interesting here. It's basically the same statement. We didn't really get anything different. Weird. No difference here. Nasdaq hasn't really moved much. Gold hasn't really moved much. This is widely expected here. And now attention is going to pivot to the actual FOMC. Now the attention is going to pivot to the actual FOMC press conference here. So, Kevin Warsh speaks live in 28 minutes. Bitcoin and gold are starting to push up here. Look at it. Look at Bitcoin and gold actually react really well to this. Again, I think this is honestly some other geopolitical stuff that we got going on here. Moving markets. With the Nasdaq gold, markets are starting to push up. Again, the FOMC statement did not say anything crazy. Fed leaves the rates unchanged. Rate pulse was a 10-2 decision. With Cook and Hammock dissenting in favor of a hike. Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. Fed says inflation remains elevated. Geopolitical developments contributing to an uncertainty. Reasserts the Fed's committee will deliver price stability higher for longer. Continues at the Fed, basically, is what this means. So, again, nothing kind of crazy. But the statement is exactly the same as it was last time. They literally copy and pasted the last statement. Although we had a pause today versus a hike last time. Genuinely the same statement. Nothing, barely anything. There might be five words changed in that entire statement relative to last time here. Maybe five freaking words. Again, now 230 is going to pivot to the attention here. But maybe five words changed in that entire FOMC statement. Not a lot. Not a lot. Now, attention is going to pivot to this press conference now. Again, gold is actually reacting kind of negatively to this. The S&P and NASDAQ are starting to push down as well. Oil is starting to rise a little bit as we approach the actual FOMC press conference. Yeah, they're using CopyTrader for reports. They don't care anymore. I told you. Buy or sell? Chad, what do you guys think? Are you buy or sell ahead of this report? Buy or sell? Let me know. Are you buy or sell ahead of this report? I don't know. Right now, it's selling here. But we'll see, dude. We'll see. All right. NASDAQ is starting to go down. Again, it's literally the exact same copy and paste statement from before. I'm still kind of surprised by this, to be honest. Like, I'm genuinely surprised. All right. Let's see the chat. The chat woke up when I asked that question. Buy, sell on gold, neither. Sell, buy, sell, sell, sell. What was the decision of race? Yeah, I'm going to put this up here. I'm going to put a banner up. Yeah, the Fed kept it the same. Again, we had two dissenters. We paused rates today. The decision was 10 to 2. Cook, Hammock dissenting in favor of a hike. So we did get two dissenters from this Fed meeting. Again, two dissenters from the Fed meeting. Again, the Fed reasserts the committee will deliver price stability. Um. [01:02:41] Speaker 2: Yeah. [01:02:59] Speaker 1: All right. Look at the NASDAQ and gold dip here, guys. Oof. Bye, bye, bye, bye, sell. I'd love to get SpaceX at 145 again, crash. All right, here. The Fed meeting is here, man. The Fed meeting is here. Let's see what happens, dude. Again, Fed pauses rates. Let me put the timer up so you can actually see this. Again, I'm just going to look. I'm going to politely. I'm going to politely say this right now. All right. I'm going to politely freaking say this. I freaking told you guys. We were not hiking rates today. All right. I told you. I was right. You were wrong. I'm big. You're little. I'm right. You're wrong. I'm good looking. You're not attractive today, guys. That's what I'm saying right now in these markets. Is I freaking told you so. Stop betting on the lowest odds we can here. I'm not mad at you if you did. It's all love. Don't hate me. All right. You're still my friends. But I freaking told you guys. I freaking told you guys this would happen. And it's not that hard to predict here. It really is not difficult to predict. It's actually pretty freaking easy to predict here. Again, too hawkish to sense. We had Cook. Markets not crashing here. We are heading down in markets right now. Yeah, we are heading down. Dude, you literally just go by the Fed watch tool. I know. That's the crazy thing. All right. And I guess what I'm trying to say is that if you don't go by the Fed watch tool, you're going to be wrong almost every single time, dude. It's an easy prediction. It's the easiest prediction I can ever make, which is like, hey, something's 93% likely. I'm going to go with that 93% likelihood. Yeah. You bet against those odds, you're going to lose, dude. Like, don't get talked into this by anybody else. If anybody told you we were raising rates today, they made a video and they're like, you know, dun, dun, dun. I think we're raising, you know, at the Fed meeting on Wednesday. And they sound like Batman. Just, you know, just turn it off, dude. Again, they don't know what they're talking about. This is very easy to predict. Is it a by the dip situation? I don't know here. That doesn't care anymore. [01:05:40] Speaker 2: What is he going to talk? He's going to talk at 2.30. Look, I'll put a timer up right now for you. Okay. Yeah, so again, let's see what we got here. Let me, uh, for the press conference. All right. [01:06:16] Speaker 1: So again, NASDAQ, everything kind of selling down here. Look, we're at 29,800s here in the NASDAQ. Everything's kind of starting to sell off. So I think what markets are starting to price in is a hawkish press conference from, from, from them today. I think markets are starting to price in a hawkish press conference here. Um, dovish unemployment is up. What was the decision here? I'll put this up on screen. I mean, the decision was a, a pause by the federal reserve. Uh, now attention's pivoting to the actual press conference we're going to get. Here's the, uh, yeah. So look, we paused rates at 3.75 to 4%, 10 to 2, two descents. Uh, you can now read this all on the bottom of the screen. Um, gold still breaking down here. Look at gold. Pods are increasing with, uh, why all you big YouTube gurus use the same script, bro? Nobody uses my script. I literally tell people I have no freaking idea what I'm talking about. Like genuinely, I tell people, I don't sell a course. I don't sell a service. I don't even say I'm a good trader. We cover all these fed meetings live. We watch markets live. We cover breaking market news. Um, I don't think everybody has the same. Everybody definitely doesn't have the same script as me, you know, by the rumor, sell the news on gold. Yeah. I mean, isn't it a buy the dip in gold right now, guys? What do you guys think? Gold is down to 4,045. That's my script. Tell people you have no idea what you're talking about. Make fun of yourself constantly. You know, I do it every day. I do it every day. Bonds are increasing with midterms just around the corners, like playing poker against someone who can see your cards. Yeah. I mean, do y'all think we're going to get a negative reaction to midterms is the next step here. We got big tech earnings today, but do we get a negative reaction here? I don't know. Maybe again, the actual press conference is coming up at 18 minutes though here. So we'll see what we get. But again, I don't know what Kevin Warsh is going to say behind all this. I really don't. Again, I talked about this before, but Kevin Warsh has been reluctant to give out forward guidance. So with that reluctancy to give out forward guidance, again, I'm going to ask you guys a question here and I would, I would love a true answer. I would love a true answer. It's nothing. It's not y'all. It's not you. It's me. But I would love a true answer here. If Kevin Warsh is not giving out forward guidance anymore, then what is the point of this press conference today? What are we going to hear in this press conference if we do not give out forward guidance? You know, maybe the justification for pausing, maybe some looks at what we might do next meeting, but do we need an entire press conference around that? I don't know. I don't know. Because again, like if we're not giving forward guidance, what are we doing? Like what's this press conference for? What are we going to say? NASDAQ starting to test this 29,800 level here. The dot plot is just a projection, but Kevin Warsh didn't do his dot plot. All right. NASDAQ still starting to break down a little bit here. Gold breaking down. Bitcoin pulling back some here. So I think markets are starting to price in hawkishness by the Fed. Journalists got to ask questions. The artists have pulled hints out. Google will buy pre-earnings. It's a habit. Making people feel good. Yeah, I don't know. Again, the press conference in 16 minutes here. Hi, bro. What's up, dude? Tech is too lopsided. Yeah, we do have tech earnings today. We got Google and Microsoft after the closing bell today. We're at 29,800. Markets being lame. Yeah, listen, we're going to stream the entire press conference here. Didn't he say earlier that he doesn't feel the need for a press conference, but it was a commitment the Fed already made for the year. That's probably true. It's just at this point in time, it's like, okay, like I've covered enough of Warsh's press conferences. Look, you might hear me talking and be like, hey, John hates Kevin Warsh. I don't hate Kevin Warsh. I think some of his ideas are actually good, to be honest. But, you know, I've seen these press conference and every answer is incredibly vague. Every answer is kind of vague. We don't really get much answers through these anymore. And so maybe, again, it's just a routine at this point in time to do the Fed press conferences. People expected, markets expected. And so that's something that we might see here. But I don't know, dude. We'll see. Again, 230 is when the press conference starts. John hates Kevin Warsh. Yeah, if we take a look at yields, and again, yields are going to go up with hawkish sentiment here. If we take a look at yields, here's two-year treasury yields. So the net effect of two-year treasury yields from this press conference is green. Again, we're at 4.77% right now. We're technically green. Here's when the decision came out. And then here's where we're at now. So we're up from the decision here, but not a crazy move up. The NASDAQ is continuing to flush. Maybe markets are starting to price in hawkishness. Here's the NASDAQ. It just broke under 29,800s. Yeah, I'm sorry, guys. I didn't have live chat. Warsh is going to tell us why the Fed isn't doing anything to fight inflation. Journalists with all their crap questions are going to turn into the market. Microsoft dump on earnings today. Maybe, I don't know. Like, maybe the market dumps on this. Again, I don't know. All right, guys. 14 minutes. Let's put this up and get ready for the actual press conference here. I'm getting the press conference up. Bear with me here. I'm going to put this up on screen so we can wait for it now. All right. Again, the statement, though. Again, going back to it. Yields haven't moved that much. The NASDAQ is starting to head down. We did have some news here. But, uh... Again, we're almost here now. So. I'll try to put the quotes up from the press conference as well as it happens. There we go. All right. We're waiting for this thing to start now. NASDAQ is starting to bounce at that 29,800 level here, though. But. Again, the press conference starts very soon. Very soon. 12 minutes. Dump it, dude. I'm on a lift. 60 feet in the air watching this. Zero. Cool. Listen, you're my guy, man. I appreciate it. I like the church music. Yeah, I definitely hear this music at church. You know. Rates are going to six. John hates Kevin Warsh. I think whatever he says, the market is bearish. He's an idiot. Hi, bro. Got to go, John. Have a good one. Hey, thank you, Charity. Appreciate you watching the stream. Thank you. You don't grow hair on your neck? I mean, I definitely grow hair on my neck. On an airplane. All right. All right, guys. We got the big Fed meeting going live in 11 minutes here. You know, I pride myself on having the loudest stream in the game. So you guys can really hear Kevin Warsh. So we do pride ourselves on that. Let's see what happens here, dude. All right. Again, here's the NASDAQ. Let me pull some charts up here. Gold. Watch 4050. 4050 is a relevant level. Bitcoin is still under 81K. I'm looking at 80.5K now to see if we hold there. Kind of the middle of the range. Now, I'm going to do a poll here. Do we raise our paws today? We asked that last time. Before the stream starts. Hawkish. Or. Dovish. Warsh. Hawk. Dove. He will say nothing. All right. So there's the poll. The poll is now live here. Hawkish or Dovish Warsh. Vote on the poll. Yeah. I mean, if we look at the odds now for rates in December here, that's something we should do probably before this in 10 minutes. Again, my. Yeah. Here's the FedWatch tool. So. December odds are now showing an 86% chance that we raise rates 25 basis points in December as of now. Again, they're showing about a 13% chance as of now. 13.6% chance that we pause again in December. Now, a lot of this is going to depend on economic data. We have economic data. We have a lot of things coming out before the next week. We have the jobs report. We have tech earnings. We have inflation data. Tomorrow. We have PCE inflation, which is actually the Fed's preferred inflation metric drops at 830 tomorrow. So if you haven't subscribed to the channel, we're going to be live for that at 830 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, 830 a.m. I'm sorry. Eastern Standard Time tomorrow morning. We also have GDP coming out the same time. We also have jobless claims coming out at the same time. And so if you want to see these odds move a little bit, they should move some on the PCE inflation data. If we look at what's expected for PCE inflation data tomorrow, PCE is expected at 3.1% on the year tomorrow and 0.3% for core on the month. So these are core data. This excludes food and energy prices, which is the most important metric because we're looking at secondary effects of inflation. Like is oil trickling into everything else is basically what we're looking for in these odds. But again, 0.3% PCE core expected tomorrow. Last time was 0.2, 3.1% on the year for core PCE expected tomorrow, 3% last time. So they are expecting PCE core inflation to uptick 0.1% tomorrow. We'll see what we get. We get a big miss here in terms of upward movement in PCE. That could obviously cause yields to spike. That could obviously increase the odds of rate hikes and more for this year and next year. So we'll see what happens on that front. Next week, we do have the labor market and then we do have big tech earnings at the closing bell today in about an hour and a half. So we do have big tech earnings at the closing bell, Microsoft, Google earnings at the closing bell. We'll see if we get movement from that, but that is not nothing here. That is something that we might see. All right, guys, eight minutes now. Eight minutes before the actual press conference here. Again, we are waiting for this press conference now. I'll try to switch between gold and the NASDAQ here on the chart so you guys can see both. But we are now sitting tight waiting for the FOMC meeting. Seven minutes. Yeah, I'll cover the earnings today for sure. It's better to use the press meeting time and playing Call of Duty. Yeah, I mean, I'm a boomer gamer is what I call myself. I like Halo. I still I play sports games. I'll play Madden. I'll play UFC six. I don't play Call of Duty as much anymore. Four screen look good to me. Yeah, I mean, the NASDAQ and gold is still kind of sitting quiet here ahead of this report. Again, everybody's kind of sitting on what Kevin Warsh is actually going to say now, though. So, again, we're at 29, 820s here. Yeah, Halo is my game. I mean, I know it's an older game. It's sad to see it kind of fall off, though, to be honest. So, all right, guys, seven minutes here. Seven minutes. What's Bitcoin doing here? I mean, I'm bullish in Bitcoin. But I don't know what midterms are going to do to this. All right, here we go, guys. Six minutes. World of Warcraft. What game do you guys play? What do you guys play? World of War? Yeah. You look like Teddy, by the way, from Snowfall. Dude, I've had a lot of people tell me I look like a lot of different people. Like, I've heard Paul Felder. I've heard Forrest Griffin. I've heard the guy from Star Wars with the red hair. I don't know what his name was. All right, guys, we got five minutes here. Five minutes. Again, I did a poll. Are you, well, Warshby, Hawkish, or Dovish? 48% are hawkish on this. 27% Dovish. 25% says he will say nothing. Forrest Gump. That hurts, dude. Come on down. That hurts, bro. Did they raise or pause cuts today? They paused rates. Two dissenters. Two voted for a hike. Specifically, in terms of who voted for a hike, it was Cook and Hammock voted for a hike, dissenting in favor of a raid hike. So, Cook, Hammock, both voted for hikes today. But we got a pause, as expected. Hey, thank you for the sub, Firefox, my guy. I appreciate it. Thank you, brother. All right, guys, here we go. Four minutes left until the press conference starts here. Nothing going on yet. Just music playing, but we have four minutes left. Let's see what we get. Oracle. So, he'll say nothing? You look like you could be the little brother of BitBoy? Dude. Oh, man, bro. That hurts, dude. That hurts. I guess it's better than Forrest Griffin, but, I mean, shout out to Forrest, but, uh, hurts a little bit. Bobby Boucher? I'll accept that. I accept, I accept Bobby. A voodoo woman named Phyllis. Um, all right, so we're at 29, 820s here. Where's gold at? Gold's still down. I'm watching gold at 4,000. Honestly, if gold gets down to under 4K, I'm buying it. I'm already in it in a lot of different ways, but I'm gonna buy gold. If it gets down under 4K. Wildlands, League of Legends, GTA. Final Fantasy, Madden, Counter-Strike, Modern Warfare 4. Overwatch. I'll play some Overwatch. Oh, those Genji guys always beat me up, though, dude. CheddarBob? David, come on now. That hurts, dude. I've had somebody call me CheddarBob before. Uh, that's all right. All right, guys, listen, we got two minutes left. The NASDAQ is starting to rise here as we approach this. Two minutes left. I'm gonna make sure the audio is good. I'm gonna turn off the music now. We have two minutes left. All right, so I'm gonna turn off the music so it's not obnoxious. Uh, we're gonna turn up the volume here, though. Um, we're gonna make sure it's loud, loud, so you guys can hear it. So, all right, guys, here we go. Two minutes. Let's see if he's got any forward guidance for us. Let's see what the decision-making was in terms of the pause today. Uh, why they made the decision today. Inflation is elevated in the priority or some things that might push markets down. Um, so just be ready. [01:24:31] Speaker 2: Here we go. We got a minute and a half left now. Good afternoon. Yeah, he's, uh, good afternoon. [01:24:44] Speaker ?: Uh, good afternoon. [01:24:46] Speaker 1: Sheldon Cooper. All right. Uh, how does the market usually move during the meeting? It depends on what he says. I, I don't know how much we're gonna move from this. I think last time we got some sell-offs in markets, if I remember correctly, from this Fed meeting. But it depends on what he says. Uh, we got a minute left. If he reiterates inflation is the priority, inflation is elevated. Uh, you know, obviously markets might start pricing in more restrictive territory for the Fed. Uh, if he says the labor market's shown signs of weakness, um, inflation has been getting, you know, I don't know how he would say this, but if inflation is getting better, you know, and more that could cause some optimism here, but here we go. We got 15 or 45 seconds here, guys. 45 seconds. What color will this tie be? Give me your last minute predictions here. What color will this tie be? I'm going to go with gray. I'm going to go with the gray tie personally. I think a gray tie makes sense. 25 seconds here, guys. 25 seconds. The NASDAQ is starting to push. So we are starting to move up in the NQ. We just tapped the volume weighted average price. Here we go. 15 seconds. Let's see what we get today. Press conference. Starts in 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. [01:26:08] Speaker 2: All right. Let's see what we get today. It's time. Silence so far. Nothing yet. Waiting for him to walk out. NASDAQ is still under $30,000. Starting to rebound, though. Bitcoin is up there as well. Nothing yet from him. Waiting. There he is. Blue tie. Blue tie. [01:26:58] Speaker 3: Good day. This morning, the FOMC decided to maintain the target rate for the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4% in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace. While uncertainty remains, owing in part to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth is strong and capital investment robust, job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little, but inflation remains elevated. The committee believes that the accumulation of more information will help it determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the 2% goal. The committee will deliver price stability. At each policy meeting, my colleagues and I assess the economy by looking out the window. It's what we call interrogating reality. To gauge what's really going on, it is not a task that has grown easier. So, what exactly do we observe? Economic growth has strengthened. The GDP increase in the first half of this year was revised up from an earlier estimate of 1.8% up to 2.4%. And the third quarter appears to have brought an even more rapid advance, led by healthy consumer spending, likely running above 3% growth. And business investment likely rising at about a double-digit pace. Capital expenditures are at a historically high share of GDP. High-tech investment is leading the acceleration. But there's also been a broadening in other categories, and these trends bear watching. What about the jobless rate? The jobless rate is lower than a year ago. And payroll growth is noticeably above last year's pace. The four-week moving average of unemployment insurance claims continues to run at the lowest level in generations. So, on the employment side of the Fed's dual mandate, conditions are quite positive. And yet, Americans, of course, are still dealing with inflation that has been running above the Committee's objective for close to six years. It's our responsibility to get inflation down. That's the reason the FOMC's discussion over the last couple of days focus mainly on the price stability side of our remit. Since our policy action in September, we have started to see some changes in financial and credit conditions. They have tightened for some businesses and households, much as we would expect. Market participants are becoming somewhat more discerning in their capital allocations. And while overall financial conditions are tighter, I'm unwilling and unable to call them tight. But broadly, these developments go in the direction of achieving a longer, more durable period of economic growth and price stability. Over the last couple of days, the Committee had a good discussion of the changes in the economic and financial landscape that marked this inter-meeting period. We discussed geopolitical developments and fast-moving changes in technology. We observed, but were not surprised, that financial markets showed bouts of volatility and shifting correlations. So as we widen the frame to survey the broad economic and financial picture, real activity is clearly pointing in the right direction. That's good news. But inflation is too high. Energy and related prices have moved higher again in recent weeks. And our job is to ensure that relative price changes in some sectors do not broaden out across the economy. And that inflation expectations remain as they are anchored. While these uncertainties are real, there's no lack of clarity in our purpose at the Fed. Since becoming chairman just five months ago, I've been honored to work with FOMC policymakers who are unambiguous in their commitment to stable prices. We've made clear our readiness to act as circumstances require. And we have shown our willingness to act. The information we receive over the coming period will help us determine where we want policy to be. And at every turn, good or bad, our job is to get monetary policy right. And that's exactly what we're doing. Now, with this objective in mind, we've decided on a change in our FOMC schedule starting next fall. We believe eight meetings per year is the right number for the FOMC. But in 2027, one meeting will focus exclusively on broad monetary policy strategy, with neither a vote on the federal funds rate nor a policy statement anticipated. The rest will be regular FOMC policy setting meetings. And I expect that in 2028, we'll have two meetings dedicated to discussions of strategy and six for setting policy. Now, what's the reasoning behind this change? To me, it's quite straightforward. Getting policy right involves assessing near-term developments at timely, regular, and information-rich intervals. But it's equally important we reserve time and space as an intellectually diverse group for strategic deliberations, for thinking anew about big questions, looking out over longer time horizons, focusing, as I say, on the left side of the decimal point. I believe the setting of the meeting schedule and agenda is more than some administrative detail. It's an institutional choice, affecting the nature and the quality of our deliberations, and ultimately, the wisdom of our decisions. It's yet another change to get the conduct of monetary policy on the right track. I appreciate your attention this afternoon. Now, my time is yours, and I welcome your questions. [01:33:36] Speaker ?: Colby. [01:33:38] Speaker 4: Thank you. Colby Smith of the New York Times. There's been essentially no progress toward the 2% inflation target. The labor market remains stable, as you suggested in your opening statement. And most of your colleagues seem to be on board with raising rates in December. So why not just raise rates today? [01:33:57] Speaker 3: So it's a good question. I will say I read your stories the last day or two, so I must admit I sort of saw that question coming. What I said in my prepared statement was information in the coming period will help us tell us where we want to be, but I suspect you want a little more than that. So let me give it a shot. Ensuring price stability, Colby, quashing inflation, is not about some fixed individual date on a calendar. Same way it's not about some isolated data point. If it were about those two things, this job would be easier, and we wouldn't be suffering from nearly six years of inflation above target. So what's this about? It's about ensuring we have clear objectives, and it's about a monetary policy strategy, which might sound to your ear and others like a change from the last several years. So let me step back. In the five months or so that I've been around, we've put in place what I'd describe as new monetary medicine. Well, what's been in that package of medicine? First thing we did when we showed up with my colleagues is we doubled down on the 2% inflation target. We said, we own it, we're taking responsibility for it, and if you think that we're tolerating some inflation target somewhere in the 2's, let us disabuse you of it. That was the first part of this, new monetary medicine. Second part is we took responsibility. No anguish of central banking here, no blaming others. It's the third thing that we've done. We laid out for you and the world our framework. I did it in Jackson Hole, was part of the discussion the last couple of days. There's the framework that many of my colleagues skew to as well. This is how we think about how monetary policy should work. These are the transmission mechanisms, and this is how we're going to deliver. Then what do we do? We interrogate reality. We do that periodically. That's a very useful thing to do. But we don't just talk, we act. And so in September, when we last met, we acted. We removed a dose of accommodation. So what are the signposts about how this new strategy is going? Inflation compensation, as measured by swaps, prices, many other measures. Inflation compensation is going in the right way. Inflation expectations. The world is quite unsettled. If you'd say, absent the Fed, what would have happened to expectations? They might have gone the wrong way. They've gone the right way, too. So I feel good about those signposts. The period right in front of us is information-rich. There is a lot that's happening in the world. My colleagues and I are keen to take notice of it. So in this coming period, what do I think we're going to be able to do? We're going to be able to figure out what's the appropriate protocol as part of this package that we started to deliver five months ago to deliver price stability. I'm encouraged by the progress we've made in a short period of time. But if the crux of your question is you haven't delivered yet, you haven't achieved price stability, you're right about that. But we're working on it. [01:37:13] Speaker 5: So if I could – this statement says that the accumulation of more information will help the committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the 2 percent goal. Does that mean that the current level of the Fed funds rate might already be the right one? [01:37:38] Speaker 3: Well, we've got to determine the appropriate protocol. If you were listening next to me in that room the last couple of days, the overwhelming consensus, the overwhelming judgment, is that what we've done in this monetary medicine, it's starting to work some, but there's no firm conclusions. If we had a firm conclusion about the conduct of monetary policy, we'd announce it to much fanfare today. What we decided to do was, to call these questions, take stock of where we are, evaluate what we're seeing out the window, ask ourselves whether the period right in front of us is likely to provide more clarity on the appropriate protocol. My judgment, the judgment of my overwhelming number of colleagues, is that it would. [01:38:29] Speaker 6: Steve. Please, sir. [01:38:34] Speaker 7: Mr. Chairman, before, thanks for taking our questions, but before the meeting, several members of the board and the committee went out and told us that we were going to take more time, and that had a profound effect on the outlook for the funds rate. Were you involved in discussing that message with them? And if you don't mind, I'm sorry, but a protocol question, what will be the disclosure, public disclosure, on the meetings where you're not going to have a statement? So, two questions, I'm sorry. [01:39:02] Speaker 3: Those are two questions. Did you not hear the one-question rule? [01:39:06] Speaker 7: I did, but I thought there was like a protocol thing I could do. [01:39:08] Speaker 3: I would, that was like a parliamentary procedure question you were asking. That didn't count. I hesitate to indulge the second question. I fear what it would do, but let's, let me see if I can do it and not have the slippery slope among us. Your first question was about my colleagues. I've got 18 quite independent colleagues. If you were inside that room the last couple of days, you would come to believe that to be true. One way to test the independence of my colleagues is, I don't know if you've heard, Steve, but I don't submit a dot. I don't plan on submitting a dot. But the 18 of them do to suggest somehow that I am some kind of all-knowing person sending messages out. That's not the committee of the FOMC that I know. These are serious, sober, responsible people. We had a serious, sober discussion. So that's the answer to that. On the parliamentary question, which doesn't count as a question, I'll just say this. We've made a decision that at that strategy meeting in 27 and the two strategy meetings in 28, I do not anticipate making any policy decision, putting out a policy statement. But what might we come out with? It's not obvious yet. There's more news to come on that. The decision on the new format for the meetings is relatively new. It was a robust discussion over a couple of meetings of how to handle that. As we get details of that, which are still now, not until next fall, we'll be prepared to share them with you. [01:40:40] Speaker 8: Nicole. [01:40:43] Speaker 6: Hi, Nicole. Good kind of with Barron. Thanks for taking my question. In September, you mentioned that the Fed has a role in sustaining the economic progress happening in America right now and in the rising opportunities that come with it. I'm wondering if you can expand on whether you see this as a mandate and how you intend to fulfill that mandate. [01:41:00] Speaker 3: So the mandate was given to us by Congress. The mandate was deliver stable prices and deliver full employment all in the context of financial stability. Now, they gave us some other homework to do on supervision and regulation payments, but I presume you're talking about monetary policy. So what's the best thing we can do in this environment, looking out our window, to deliver on that remit? Ensure stable prices. I mentioned, I think, at a prior press conference, if you were trying to do the most harm, the least well-off among us, you would let the last six years of inflation above the Fed's target, usually well above the Fed's target, you'd let that continue. So that's the most important thing we can do as we look out the window, and that's what we plan to do. You probably heard me say this. We will deliver price stability. No ifs, ands, or buts, and that continues to be the case. [01:41:54] Speaker 9: Eleanor. Eleanor Mueller was sent before. Here, coming. Eleanor Mueller was sent before. Wanted to ask you about the working groups, when we can expect the reports to come up, and if there is anything you can preview for us, whether it's on AI or data or balance sheets. Sure. [01:42:11] Speaker 3: These five task forces are hard at work. I have scarcely seen anything that would constitute a final report, but I have done some periodic check-ins with them, and I am impressed by the rigor of the intellectual discussions, by the seriousness of the task that we've given them. Now, some of the questions that I ask to kick off the reports, they want to answer those and answer a whole range of other questions, which might go to other task forces, but I'm impressed by what they're doing. I gave them, like I told you, a year-end deadline. I think some but not all of the groups will probably hit their deadline and turn their homework in on time, but that just begins the process by which we're going to be consuming, which is intellectually serious work. That's a catalyst for us to think anew about productivity and jobs and an inflation framework and what's the best data to help us do our job, how to think about the balance sheet task force. These are huge intellectual investments that I think are going to bear fruits in the next policy conjuncture, unlikely to find their way into this policy conjuncture given the important role as consumers of these ideas that my colleagues have, but I will have one small announcement. I previewed this when I was at an IMF meeting, much to the chagrin of some of my colleagues around here. On November 16th, the Productivity and Jobs Task Force will be doing a field hearing inviting a broad range of people who have strong views. What are the implications for jobs in the economy near-term, medium-term, long-term? Is this a productivity miracle that's going to happen or will it happen slowly? I know I, for one, am keenly interested in refining my own views on that question, but that task force decided that they wanted to hear from more people as part of their undertaking. I plan at attending. I might have a few words to say at the outset of that conference. I expect the conference will go three, four hours. It'll be pretty wonky stuff. I don't know how good the material will be for the likes of you and your colleagues, but it's a purpose to do a lot of listening, for me to interrogate the reality in front of me. What do experts in their fields think about this? What are the implications for the dual mandate that I referenced to your colleague? Is this going to make it harder or easier for us to achieve price stability over the next several years? What are the implications for jobs, medium and long-term, but near-term, too? So we're going to explore those largely in the public realm on November 16th. I look forward to seeing you there. [01:44:53] Speaker 9: James Rosen. [01:44:56] Speaker 10: Thank you so much. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. James Rosen with Newsmax. You spoke of interrogating reality. Since reality is a no-show here today, I'm going to satisfy myself with interrogating you. You spoke earlier in your remarks here today about how your colleagues are serious and sober people who are committed to price stability. In an event in the Oval Office on October 7th of this year, President Trump said, and I quote, Kevin is great, but Kevin's one vote out of a board with numerous people that were put on by Obama and Biden and a couple by me, so you have a board that would like to see the country do badly, in my opinion. Do you agree with those comments? [01:45:33] Speaker 3: So, James, I appreciate the question. I'm not going to be responding to quotes from public officials. What I can tell you is my experience in five months here. We just came out of a heck of a family fight, a serious, sober discussion. I think we came to the right policy decision for this moment, and I'm honored to be here and honored to be the chairman of this group. [01:45:58] Speaker 9: Maria, let me say, Ellen. [01:46:04] Speaker 11: Chairman Worsh, Mariela Isacapurro, with Bloomberg News. So, the economy is strong. Inflation is well above 2 percent. You're saying inflation expectations are going the right way, but surveys show that households expect inflation to remain above the Fed's goal, and not just for the short term. Using a hike today, I'm waiting for more data. I haven't really heard the clear arguments as to that decision. So, do you worry that with today's decision, households may not believe your pledge to bring down inflation clearly and at sufficient speed, and instead will read this decision of holding rates steady as a sign that the central bank has, in fact, a soft inflation target? [01:46:46] Speaker 3: So, what I can do is tell you there's no soft inflation target. There's no implicit inflation target. There's a target of price stability, and it's 2 percent as measured by PCE. It took six years for inflation to have the effect on consumers that you reference. But I would say this: when consumers interrogate reality, they look outside their window, too. They go to the gas station, too, and they see that prices are up. I am not going to be the guy who says that oil prices haven't gone up, and when they fill up their tank, they don't see it. And so, inflation's gone up in expectations in the very near term, because they're doing what we're doing, interrogating reality. But if you look out over the horizon, if you look at most, but not all, measures, what you see is households, businesses, financial markets, they have the confidence that they should have that the central bank will deliver price stability. [01:47:50] Speaker 6: Edward Lawrence. [01:47:54] Speaker 12: Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Edward Lawrence of Fox Business. So, do you see a direct line correlation between oil prices and the inflation we're seeing in the United States? And if so, how fast could inflation fall or react to falling oil prices? [01:48:06] Speaker 3: Edward Lawrence: So, I don't want to engage in hypotheticals, but I can look out our window and see what's happened. There's been a stable correlation between oil prices – they've moved up this year, generally – and interest rates. Not the interest rates that we control, but interest rates set in the market. That correlation has been quite strong. Until very recently, we've seen oil prices continue to move up, largely due to geopolitical events. We've seen crack spreads between oil and refined products continue to stay elevated. But what's happened? Interest rates have rolled over to the downside. I'm not a Wall Street newsletter. I'm just telling you when I look out the window over the last several months, that is what we've seen. To the extent that oil prices were to move lower – again, probably due to geopolitical events, that's something that we're going to have to interrogate. What are the effects on the Fed's dual mandate? What are the effects on financial market prices, and what are we going to do about it? But that's a hypothetical. And in fact, if we look at financial market prices, futures prices for oil, they've moved up over the course of the last several weeks. And I can't help but take note of that too. Claire. [01:49:36] Speaker 13: Thank you. Claire Jones, Financial Times. Much of the growth that we're seeing in the U.S. economy now, and quite a bit of the inflation too, is coming from the AI boom. There's quite a lively debate as to whether or not this is a part of the economy that's sensitive to interest rates in the same way as, say, housing. I'd love to get your sense of, do rates need to rise more, given that so much of the U.S. economy now is about AI than it otherwise would if, say, housing was a bigger part of the story? Thank you. [01:50:11] Speaker 3: Thank you, Claire. So there was a narrative for quite a while, maybe even in this room over the course of the last several press conferences. Well, they're going to raise rates or talking about raising rates, but it's not going to have any effect on AI because the returns that investors are expecting are so different. I was skeptical of that view. Interest rates get in the cracks. Interest rates affect directly or indirectly almost everything. And what have we seen since early September? What we've seen inside of the technology complex, outside of the technology complex, whether you pronounce it AI or SI, Claire, is up to you. What have you seen? Interest rates have had an effect. You see market participants that are discriminating between the kinds of investments they want to make. You've seen credit spreads for certain assets widen out, gap out. For others, you've seen some tightening in financial conditions, but not significantly. So on the thrust of your question of, with respect to the new technology and this investment surge, do interest rates matter? I believe they do. And I don't believe that they're somehow divorced from the rest of the economy. Secondly, I'll just say this. It is convenient to say that the strength of the economy is all about this new technology wave. In fact, if we look at the data, really including data from the last meeting till this, the CapEx story is not just robust, not just strong, but it is broadening. And so if you want to tell the story somehow that this is strength we're seeing only in narrow pockets, it's a much harder story to tell now than it would have been several quarters ago. [01:52:08] Speaker 6: Elizabeth Schultze on the back. [01:52:14] Speaker 8: Thanks so much, Elizabeth Schultze with ABC News. As you know, the midterm elections are in six days. Did the midterms factor into the Fed's decision to stay on hold? And if not, how can you assure the American public that politics were not at play here? [01:52:27] Speaker 3: So politics played no role in the decision. I just spent two days with my colleagues upstairs. I didn't hear an utterance about politics. I didn't hear a reference to politics, elections, what's happening in the next week or so. I didn't hear anything about it. And I don't believe it had any role in the decision, not just for me, but my colleagues around the room. But I will say it's an information-rich interval in the coming period, having nothing to do with politics. [01:53:06] Speaker 6: Chris Rugeber. [01:53:07] Speaker 14: Hi. Thank you. Chris Rugeber at Associated Press. I know you don't like the statement of economic projections, but last month they did -- your colleagues penciled in another rate hike for this year. And so could you give us your sense from this meeting whether you still see widespread support for another hike this year around the table? Thank you. [01:53:28] Speaker 3: So the blackout period for them ends, I think, on Friday or at some point over the weekend. So they might indulge you in that discussion. I don't believe in forward guidance, absent exigent circumstances, absent a crisis. I have to give that caveat, because in the darkest days of the 2008 financial crisis, in part using some literature and thinking from a very recent Nobel Prize winner, that kind of forward guidance is actually quite helpful. But in normal, ordinary times, especially times where the underlying real economy is this strong, I don't believe in it. I don't favor it. I also don't believe in prejudging meetings. A lot of things can happen. So I'm not going to be able to share with you my musings about what happens when this group gets together six weeks from now. But my judgment is that we might learn a lot, and like in my response to Colby's question, we'll be, I think, better positioned to determine the right policy decision and the stance of policy. [01:54:40] Speaker ?: Sang Lee. [01:54:43] Speaker 15: Hi. My name is Sang Lee from the Korea Economic Daily Newspaper. I got a question as a foreign press. You have spoken several times about the possibility of the Fed shrinking its balance sheet further. If that plan moves forward later, how would you avoid the disrupting foreign official holders of Treasuries or dollar funding markets abroad, like South Korea and Japan? [01:55:06] Speaker 3: MR. So thank you for your question. First off, I would say I pay probably more attention to the Korean economy than you might think, because when I'm looking at the feedstocks effectively for this new surge in technology. A lot of it's coming from Japan and Korea, some from Singapore. So I'm particularly interested in what's happening in the Korean economy, usually because it's telling me what's what's on planes and ships coming this way. Secondly, I should say that your new central bank governor is someone I've known for 20 years and is a very talented guy and a good friend. So I'm glad he's in that post. He and I met actually about 20 years ago amid the global financial crisis, as it would come to be known. And I remember this is a generation of discussions with him about the use of the balance sheet in exigent circumstances like we had then. At this point, the balance sheet is solely within the four walls of the balance sheet task force. Now, I have checked in with them, full disclosure. They're working away and comparing their best thoughts. And I think the conclusions they come to, the recommendations they come to, will be fed into the FOMC probably early in the first quarter. But don't hold me exactly to that timing. And if we decide to make changes in the balance sheet, it'll be after a serious consideration of their proposals and their recommendations. I think it is unlikely to have any material effect on this policy conjuncture. But it's a question we should get to the bottom to, and I look forward to doing it [01:56:49] Speaker 16: with the help of the outside task force. Nick. Nick Temerose of the Wall Street Journal. Chairman Warsh, I want to follow up on your answer to Claire's question. As the AI investment boom becomes more dependent on external financing. Does that make aggregate demand more sensitive to interest rates than it was before? And related to that, when you removed a dose of accommodation last month, did you see about [01:57:21] Speaker 3: what you bargained for? So you gave me two questions, and neither of them were ahead of any sort of parliamentary out. So you're giving me the opportunity to choose which of those. So I'll answer your second question. When we removed a dose of accommodation, I don't know, six weeks ago, we don't have perfect foresight on what financial markets are going to do with it. But broadly, I would say the effects on financial markets, on financial market conditions broadly were consistent [01:57:57] Speaker 17: with my expectations. Howard Schneider. Howard Schneider with Reuters. Thank you, Chairman Warsh. I'm going to take Nick's first question then. Okay. Give it to me again. I don't remember. No, it's about aggregate demand and the components of inflation. A lot of your colleagues have said they felt the investment boom in AI was now adding a strong demand component to inflation. And this was a handoff from the supply side concerns that might be expected to fade over time. How much do you think demand is adding to inflation right now? And how sensitive will that be to Fed control? [01:58:35] Speaker 3: Good, good, good, good, good pickup of that. Good team effort. So I'd say this. The only things we really know in economics and supply and demand cross. Our measures of the size and the shape of the aggregate demand curve is imperfect. Broadly, what I heard in the room the last couple of days is consistent with my own views, which is the economy is strong. I didn't try to sugarcoat that in the first part of my statement. The economy has been marked up for the first three quarters. The economy is pointing in the right direction. Is the economy running too hot? Is the economy running too strong? That isn't the judgment of most of my colleagues. Part of it is we never know what potential growth really is, Howard. My judgment is we have seen an improvement in productivity. We can't measure it precisely. I think most of that change in productivity precedes everything we're talking about super intelligence. But productivity has been moving higher in the economy, however imperfectly measured, I think for a couple of years. And so economic growth is higher. But that doesn't tell me that economic growth is somehow causing inflation and making our job harder. But we'll be continuing to look at those issues. The goal in my view, and you've heard me say this before, isn't to throw sand in the gears of the economy and throw people out of work. I don't think we have to do that. The dominant means in which this policy is going to be put into practice is we are tightening financial conditions. They've tightened a bit since we met last time. That isn't something that we're uncomfortable with. That tells me that policy is working. And I think we can do that and make the economy more durable, have it last longer, [02:00:29] Speaker 8: and still achieve stable prices. Okay. We'll go to Victoria for the last question. [02:00:37] Speaker 18: Hi, Chair Warsh. Victoria Guido with Politico. I wanted to ask, next week is a hearing at the White House on Lisa Cook's future and allegations that have been made against her. Are you personally, or the Fed as an institution, going to be involved at all in those proceedings? Not to my knowledge. Thank you. Thank you, guys. [02:01:03] Speaker 1: Okay, so let's digest some of what Warsh said. Now, number one, apparently we have a task force for the balance sheet now. So apparently there's a task force now. If we look at the NASDAQ, the NASDAQ has reacted mostly positively to this. It's not a crazy big move. Again, we still didn't get a lot of answers. We didn't really get too much information here from this, to be honest. But we have had like positive moves in the NASDAQ. If we look at gold here, again, gold is reacting as the press conference ended. Gold's starting to go down. But gold's mostly flat from this report. We look at Bitcoin here. Bitcoin's actually a little green from this report. But just to kind of reiterate some of the stuff we talked about here. Number one, other news that is pushing markets. Oracle did drop some news a minute ago. If you look at Oracle here right now, look at Oracle. Crazy. I'm in Oracle right now, too. I'm still down, I believe, in Oracle. My average price in Oracle is 160s. So, I mean, we were much more down. But now we're looking a little bit better in Oracle. Also, guys, do me a favor. So, we appreciate everybody tuning in for the stream. If you have not already, give your boy a follow on x.com at beginner trades. Here's my x.com link. We post funny things, market news, you know, cover a lot of different things here. So, if you have not given me a follow on x.com, there's the link. It's completely free. It doesn't cost anything. You know, I don't have any paywalls behind my x.com page or anything like that. So, give your friend a follow. There is the link right there. But other news that's pushing oil down. We covered this in the chat here. So, there's been more optimism about a potential deal with Iran. You know, so we have had more optimism about a potential deal with Iran going through in markets right now. Al-Arabia has reported a number of different things going on right now. Specifically, the latest one was that Al-Arabia said consultations between mediators in Iran to hold a meeting in Turkey before November 4th. Iran demands reducing the seven-day period to just four. Sources say mediators in Iran discussing holding Turkey meeting before November 4th. I'm sure the president is really pushing to, like, try to get some of this settled before midterms, but I think it's... I'm not saying it's too late, but, you know, it's getting a little close for that, I think. I don't know if we're going to have any type of real settlement before midterms, to be honest. Again, Al-Arabia reported the timeline for new proposals include opening the straight-up for moves and lifting the siege. Again, Warsh did talk about the balance sheet task force. Recommendations will be fed into the FOMC early in the first quarter, and then if the Fed decides to make balance sheet changes, it's unlikely to have any effect on this policy juncture. Says he is glad the Korean Central Bank governor is in his post, that he's known him for 20 years, and he's a good friend. Does... they did talk about, like, the Cosby and the Korean markets overnight. Says he pays a lot of attention to the Korean economy, which tells him what is coming this way. But you can see oil start to dip down here. Now, in 50 minutes or so, we do have big tech earnings releasing here. So we do have big tech earnings coming out. Hey, shout out to everybody that just followed me on x.com. We appreciate it. Also, guys, listen, if you want to learn to day trade, there's a lot of ways you can help support the channel. If you want to check out Vest.com, Vest is perpetual's market. So Vest is open 24/7, and you can trade a lot of different stuff on Vest. So if you look at markets, you can trade NASDAQ, S&P, Gold, Bitcoin, ETH, the DAO, the Russell, Tesla, Nvidia, Oil, Solana, Robinhood, Alibaba, MU, Netflix. You can trade all these different things in perpetual markets right now, which is incredibly powerful. Honestly, I'm going to be trading on Vest very, very soon just because of the sheer number of things that you can, you know, you can trade on there. Like look at Vest here. And you can use code BGT to get 5% off if you use code BGT on Vest. Great way to help support the channel. And I'll put that link up now. We appreciate the support. But yeah, here's the link right there if you want to use Vest. Again, you can use code BGT to check out Vest. Great way to help support the channel. I'm probably going to be trading on Vest markets just because I cover a lot of stock news as well, to be honest. Like we cover a lot of stock stuff, a lot of stock news. And so I think it makes sense for me to trade stocks on Vest. They've got some cool funded accounts and more on there. So you know, when Vest unrestricted trading, no minimum to claim on demand payouts, up to 95% profit split, no consistency rule, one clear loss limit. So the max drawdown applies to every plan. A daily loss limit is optional if you want a bespoke account, but you can kind of see some of this stuff that Vest offers. $500. And you can get little bitty accounts here, dude. So like look at Vest. You can get $500 for $9.50 trading capital. $5,000 for 190. $10,000 for $380. And it shows you the max stock drawdown. But the good thing about it is it's static. Like it doesn't follow you up and you can build up profits. This has been taken off a lot. So if you want to check them out again, link, I just put the link up in the description. Link is in the chat. Yeah, the $500, $10 drawdown for $10. Yeah. [02:06:37] Speaker 2: Yeah, dovish. Again, did you think this speech was hawkish or dovish here? [02:06:43] Speaker 1: Was this a hawkish or dovish? The good thing about this is that like, you can just kind of swing for the fences here on these Vest accounts, I think. What's your ex name so I could follow? @beginnertrades is my ex name. @beginnertrades. Give your boy a follow. We got some subs too. I appreciate the subs. But yeah, I mean, it's interesting with Warsh. Remember guys, we do have Google Microsoft earnings at the closing bell today. So just be careful. We do have Google Microsoft closing bell. Be careful. Hey, shout out to all the follows. KOT, my guy. Thank you, brother. Michael Oldson. Olden. Sorry. Thank you, friend. Louis, my guy. Thank you, bro. Yeah. Again, the thing about Warsh is like, look, I've said it once. I'll say it again. He always seems like he's about to cry. I'm not, look, I'm not one of those people that just hate Warsh because like, I don't hate Warsh. I agree with some of the things. Honestly, restricting, like, look, I thought some of the big news that we had from this is that starting in 2028, we're going to get six Fed meetings a year. So, you know, that's compared to the eight we have now. Also some changes next year. It's, it's not futures, but it's very, it's basically futures with Vest. So it's not futures, but it's basically futures. So like, you can trade all these different markets [02:08:14] Speaker 2: on Vest. Like, if you look at these markets, look at this. So there's just so many different things. What's good about Perpetual is it kind of combines all of it to like one space. So now instant accounts are just straight up direct to funded. [02:08:42] Speaker 1: I might buy one right now. I'm going to buy the $500 account. It's $10 state. [02:08:48] Speaker 2: But you also can get a discount with my link if you haven't already. [02:08:56] Speaker 1: All right, guys, we've done it. We've bought a Vest account for $10, a $10 Vest account. So I have $500. I got a $10 drawdown. What should I trade in this thing right now? [02:09:18] Speaker 2: Dude, what should I trade? I can trade Nvidia here. Should I trade Oracle? Is an Oracle short worth it? Let me get some music playing. What should I trade? [02:09:45] Speaker 1: I've got a $10 drawdown here. But if I get one winning trade, my drawdown is bigger. There's Nvidia. I'm used to trading the NAS deck here. I'm tempted to go long right now. Hold on, let's see. I'm just playing with this, so bear with me. I'm not used to using this yet. All right. Okay. There we go. All right, we're out. Wait, wait. Just get me out. Okay, we're out. I mean, we caught the dip buy at the right time here for the NASDAQ, dude. Yo. Now, our drawdown is $30. 26, 27. I'm going to scale this $10 account into a million dollars. So I believe that, you know, again, they're an affiliate of mine with Vest. I'm biased, of course, but like... Yeah. The referral code is BGT, FRB, BGT. Trade the VIX. What if he does 50 points in December to make up for it? I don't think he's doing that, dude. Again, honestly, I'm just trying to stick around now and wait for the earnings that we got after the closing bell. Bye, John. Thanks for the line, my G. Thank you, Carlo. Appreciate it, brother. Thank you, dude. Bro, I'm getting a vest just to trade Tesla. Dude, use code BGT. Again, shameless plug. They're an affiliate of mine. I'm biased, but use code BGT, bro. Help support your boy here, you know? Try to run this $10 account up into something here. I got to get used to trading this, though. All right, we're going to risk it here again. All right, we're still logged. Okay. I'm going to hold this break even if we start to push down here. Might lose it. I still got $30 now here. I've never traded. I don't know if I've ever traded an account this small here on the best. But for $10, I got to try it on the stream, right? It's not looking good here, though. My fail price is right here. If I hit this, I lose the $10. It's right here. I'll probably get a bigger account next time, to be honest. And I'm about to lose it. Oh. Okay, we lost the account. That's okay. All right, so we tried the NASDAQ. I'm already used to trading the NASDAQ, though. I want to trade something a little bit spicier here. Am I allowed? Is there no dark mode? We're civilized people here. We're in a civilized world. Ah, it stops you out. Try again? I'm trying again. Oh, the music. My bad, guys. Here, I'm sorry. I had Kevin wash up loud. I don't know. Vest is, I believe, backed by Coinbase, if I have it correctly, right? I think they're backed by Coinbase. You know? I might be wrong there. Okay, so I got another $500 here. What do I trade now? Gold, Bitcoin. Oracle right now, man. Do they have Oracle? Hold on. Yes, they do. I don't know. Oracle's already up so much. I think a short is the only thing that makes sense. All right, we're short. And we lost it. Well, there's another $10 gone. That's okay. What's the other second biggest account? I need more than $10 here, dude. Hold on. Gold? Bro, I lost that one in like, it was literally like five seconds. Hold on, dude. Hold on. I don't want to try another $10 account here. Let me see what else we got. They also have evals, right? So $5,000 is $71. The good thing about it though, is the drawdown is static here. Long alpha man should have took 10 payouts and traded with what's left. Yeah, that was gone quick. My guys, my friends, and we have some girls here. Do we have any ladies in the chat right now? Uh, again, I'm trying to stick around so we can cover earnings in 40 minutes. So I guess I'm just going to stream this here. Um, I'm pretty sure I can trade through earnings too. And so maybe I should take some of these accounts and play earnings. Do you guys want to see that? Let me know. Yeah, the music was too loud. I know. I'm sorry. Dark mode in my eyes. Honestly, it kind of hurts my eyes, dude. I don't think it's good for my eyes. Let me see. They've got to be, there's a dark mode for sure. I don't know. I got stopped out of that freaking oracle trade in about five seconds. Favorite lady right there. What's up? Eyes by Rhonda. Market is stagnant. NVIDIA. Yes. Again, if you like funded accounts, check them out. I'll put, I have to put the link in the description. I don't think I got it yet. Yeah. All right. So today we have Microsoft. [02:17:54] Speaker ?: 4:00 p.m. [02:17:54] Speaker 1: I could do another stream for it, but I think I'm just going to stick around here. I could do another stream for it, but I think I'm just going to stick around here. [02:18:30] Speaker ?: I could do another stream for the stream for it, but I'm just going to stick around here. I could do another stream for it, but I'm just going to stick around here. I could do another stream for it, but I'm just going to stick around here. I could do another stream for it. I could do another stream for it, but I could do another stream for it, but I could do another stream for it. I could do another stream for it. I could do another stream for it, but I could do another stream for it. I could do another stream for it, but I could do another stream for it, but I could do another stream for it. I could do another stream for it, but I could do another stream for it. I could do another stream for it, but I could do another stream for it. I could do another stream for it, but I could do another stream for it. [02:18:47] Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm staying on for the earnings tonight. Here's Microsoft. Microsoft is starting to move up a little bit. Just stay? Who's going to stick with me if I trade through earnings today, guys? Who's going to stick with me? Who's sticking with me? Who's coming with me? You know? Me, all the way, earnings of bull or bear, me, me. Where do you see Tesla, SpaceX in a year, John? I'm saying I see them green, but it depends on what the merger looks like for Tesla and SpaceX. Aadip, I'm in this with you, John. 800 shares, Microsoft. Hey, good luck, deep cheeks. Also, guys, we're doing an account giveaway. We're doing a lucid account giveaway if you want to join our Discord. The person that can make me laugh the most wins on our Discord. So if you have not already joined our Discord, it's completely free. It doesn't cost anything, and if you can make me laugh, I might give you a giveaway account, a lucid pro account. I'll do a lucid pro. So, hey, here's the Discord link. Join it, hang out with us. Yeah, I probably will. What do you think about 50 basis points in December if we get bad data? I think it's likely that we hike in December. I think most markets are pricing in a hike. It depends on, obviously, like you said, it depends on what the data shows up as. I think the data that we want to look at tomorrow, again, we're going to be streaming live. PCE inflation data, GDP data coming out live at 8:30 Eastern Standard Time tomorrow. So that is something that you probably want to pay attention to. And yeah, we got a lot of stuff in the chat that's making me laugh today. So again, if you want to participate in our Discord, again, it doesn't cost anything. A lot of stuff here, you know, a lot of people send me stuff. So come hang with us in our Discord. Your haircut looks like a rate cut, dude. My haircut? You got a problem with my haircut, dude? What's wrong with my hair, bro? Don't make me insecure out here, dude. What's wrong with my hair? How does my hair indicate rate cut? You know, I shaved my beard too. I'm sure I'm going to get some heat for that here. But. Don't talk about my hair, you know? All right. Again, here's Microsoft. Microsoft at 520s. Just left Baton Rouge. Let my customers get a link to your cast. Hey, thank you, Joe. My guy. Bro, are y'all mad at my haircut, dude? Come on now. What's wrong with my haircut, bro? Honestly, I'm in a tough spot, right? Like, I think they left a little bit more on top. And it kind of looks like a broccoli cut. And I didn't mean for it to be that way. My wife pressures me. She's like, John, I like your curls. I want to see curly hair. Like, don't shave it all off. I like the curls. And so I'm stuck with what to do, right? I'm like, hey, I told the lady. I'm like, yo, my wife likes my curls. Don't cut the curls off. And this is what I got. All right. You know, the chat shows love by trolling you. Oh, I know. I'd be banning people if I was really butthurt about it. But I'm not. You know, that's okay. I'll make fun of myself with you. You know, it's not a broccoli cut. And I'm going to tell you why. All right. I'm going to tell you why it's not a broccoli cut. All right. It's not a broccoli cut because I still have sideburns, right? Like, young kids nowadays, sideburns are, you know, extinct. I can't, you know, I could find, I could go up to like, I could go up to 30 11th graders right now. Not a sideburn in sight. They don't even know what a sideburn is, dude. It's all cut here. Like, there's no sideburns in sight. So that's why, you know, it's not a broccoli cut here. Uh, you know, it's not a broccoli cut. All right. Uh, high and tight clippers and buzz it by stocks with the money saves longer as curlier. Yeah, that's true. Uh, need a mustache to look like a 20 year old. Yeah. I need a mustache, a mullet, and no sideburns is what I need to look like a 20 year old. I just don't have that right now. I'm just glad I, at my age, honestly, I'm just glad I have hair. I'm just glad there's hair on my head right now to be honest with you guys. It sounds like something that somebody with a broccoli cup would say. Yeah. Hey, uh, yeah. All right. How about this music here? I don't even know if y'all can hear the music. It's a hawkish cut. All right. What stock do you guys like the most here? Uh, again, what stock do you guys like the most? Do you guys like Microsoft or Google today? I'm in Microsoft right now. So naturally I want to see Microsoft do well. My average price in Microsoft currently is $387 a share. Microsoft currently at 528. So we got, we got a lot of room here on Microsoft. I'm not nervous about it yet. Let me get a timer made for these earnings here. It's just holiday music. Dude. I don't know what they're hitting me with all this Christmas music for. AI. Okay. Yeah. Look at AI. Okay. Here. It is squeezing up. It's at $28 a share right now. Making a move this morning or this afternoon. [02:26:13] Speaker ?: It's at $31 a share right now. It's at $32 a share right now. It's at $32 a share right now. It's at $32 a share right now. It's at $32 a share right now. It's at $32 a share right now. It's at $32 a share right now. It's at $32 a share right now. It's at $32 a share right now. [02:26:27] Speaker 1: It's at $32 a share right now. It's at $32 a share right now. It's at $32 a share right now. It's at $32 a share right now. It's at $32 a share right now. [02:26:35] Speaker ?: It's at $32 a share right now. It's at $32 a share right now. [02:26:35] Speaker 1: It's at $32 a share right now. Again, so the big questions for tonight. Let me put a banner up here so you guys can actually see it. We got 30 minutes left. The big stories for tonight and Google and Microsoft earnings are cloud and AI revenue growing. A lot of spending, a lot of capex. Can the AI revenue grow fast enough? Can the cloud revenue grow fast enough to justify all this capex spending here? It's going to be the story for Google, Microsoft earnings. Again, we're widely expected to see beats on both EPS and revenue for these earnings reports today. But will that be enough? Again, watch cloud growth, next quarter capital, next quarter guidance, capital spending and cash flow here. So again, today, Microsoft revenue is expected at about $90.6 billion. Google revenue expected at about $128.2 billion. EPS for Microsoft expected at $471 adjusted, $302 or so expected for Google. With Microsoft Watch Azure growth, management guided 44% to 45% constant currency rate. Google cloud revenue approximately $28.7 to $29.6 billion across published estimates. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. [02:27:59] Speaker ?: Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. [02:28:26] Speaker 1: Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. [02:28:38] Speaker ?: Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. [02:28:41] Speaker 1: Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. [02:28:52] Speaker ?: Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. Google cloud revenue expected at $30.6 billion. [02:29:17] Speaker 1: Service now goes at the bell too. Yeah, so we have at the closing bell today, if you look at Earnings Whisper here, at the closing bell today, these are all the earnings. We have Microsoft, Google, ServiceNow, Carvana, Fortinet, Chipotle, FedEx, T-Mobile, Ford, O'Reilly, eBay, Vikings Therapeutics, and more today at the closing bell. So, yeah. Which company are y'all looking forward to the most? Let me do a poll here. I'm just going to do bull or bear on aftermarket close. There you go, bull or bear on these. You can vote on that poll. Can you shortly explain tomorrow's PCE data and its impacts? Yeah, so tomorrow, we have what's called the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index. Core PCE is going to be the relevant one that you want to watch. So, you want to watch core PCE inflation tomorrow. Why do you want to watch core? You want to watch core because it excludes energy prices specifically, food and energy. But core is relevant because right now the argument for rate hikes is that we are, the argument for rate hikes is that we are seeing secondary effects of oil-driven inflation. What do I mean by that? I mean, we are seeing oil prices trickle into everything else that is affected by oil prices. So, what do I mean by that? We see shipping costs get higher. We see airline fares get higher because they are all using oil and higher oil means, you know, raising prices in those areas to compensate for the higher costs that they have to pay from higher oil. So, we see shipping, airlines and more, a lot of things like petroleum and oil is used in an array of different things around the world. And so, we see secondary effects of oil-driven, not direct oil prices going up, but everything else going up because of higher oil prices is what we mean by secondary effects. Now, what the Fed uses to gauge inflation to determine their rate path is, you know, the Fed uses PCE inflation, personal consumption data, to gauge what's going on in these markets, right? So, tomorrow's PCE print is really important. The one the Fed looks at is core PCE. So, because of that, core PC, very relevant, very important to talk about. After SK Hynix earnings, CapEx is the most important factor. Yeah, I mean, John Smith, we saw news like that going through already, though. We saw a lot of news like that already happening here. So, we saw news of that already going forward. And yeah, I don't know what we're going to get, but we've already kind of seen that stuff. We saw some news like that from Iran before the bell. So, we already got some news like that, and we saw it before the open, or before the Fed meeting here. So, again, here's Microsoft. So, again, here's Microsoft. Microsoft and Google kind of flat. So, yeah, we got 23 minutes until these numbers drop. Again, so just to look at the schedule here for these earnings, if you look at this, right? So, Microsoft releases at 405. Google releases after the close. ServiceNow releases at 410. Google releases at 5. Carvana releases at 405. So, the big boys are dropping at the close. Google specifically dropping right at the close. Microsoft dropping at 405. So, those are the big boys. They're mostly going to release right at the closing bell. Yeah, I mean, we should watch PC inflation tomorrow. High is bad, obviously. Higher means maybe higher yields, higher likelihood of rate hikes in December, higher chance of rate hikes next year. But, again, since the Fed meeting just happened, I think we're going to have maybe less influence on PC inflation data. I'm not 100% sure there. But, maybe we have less influence from all that stuff. Yeah, I'm trying to see on Vest, like, do they allow, do they have penny stocks as well? Let me see. Mostly no penny stocks, but they do have all the big caps here. So, this is like a prop firm. Perpetual's prop firm as well. So, you can trade regular or you can get funded through them and you can trade all of this stuff at one place here, which is really nice. I see Taiwan, Semiconductors, IBM, Marvell, NG, DRAM, ETF. Bregetti, Rivian, RKLB. Like, look, here's the stocks that you can trade on there. MU, Sandisk, SK, Hynix, Robinhood, NVIDIA, Meta, Amazon, Oracle, CoreWeave, Nebius, HIMS, Coinbase, Intel, BlackBerry, Bregetti. Crypto, Bitcoin, ETH, Solana, XRP, and Hype. Commodities, Gold, Oil, Silver, BZ, HG, PL, and NG. Indices, NASDAQ, S&P, DAO, and the Russell. ETFs, Q, SPY, IWM, GDX, Silver, EWY. And this is really useful. Like, look how small this first account is, dude. Again, they're an affiliate of mine. I'm biased, by the way. But I'm going to be trading these things a bunch on stream from now on, I think, just because this is cool. Like, I like futures, but I always love stocks. Again, $10 account. I lost one in about five seconds, just to clarify. I'm going to probably be picking up some of these 5K accounts, maybe some of these 10K accounts. The drawdown's small, but it's static, from my understanding. You can also go, like, if you want to pass a test and get funded, they're much cheaper. Like, $5,000, you pass it. Max drawdown is $300. You can turn a max daily loss of one or off. How much is this? $5,000? What's the target on the 5K account? Oh, 10% evaluation goal. [02:36:42] Speaker ?: Hmm. [02:36:47] Speaker 1: So, like, the 5K account, you've got to make $500 with a $300 drawdown. That's honestly not that bad. $70? I'm going to play with that one. I'm at least going to pick up some of these here. And again, if you want to check it out, here's my link. Again, I'll put the link up again. Again, you can use my code to get the discount if you haven't already. BlackBerry exists just to be pumped and dumped. It's a beautiful thing. Surprised when some of these companies still exist. Yeah, I was about to say $40K. Dude, that's a little tight. B-B-B. All right, here we go. Again, we'll see what these earnings look like today. but... Maybe I send it. Yeah, Microsoft's still heading up. It's at 530s now. So Microsoft's still heading up. I see oil continuing to dip real quick. Let's see if there's any news. It's kind of a quick dip in oil right now as well. Microsoft's still pushing up here. Let me see. I did a poll. Bull or bear on earning 66% are bullish, 34% are bearish. So 66% bulls for this release. You guys red or green on the day right now? I think I'm green mostly, aside from these vest accounts that I'm not green on. But I think I'm green. Yeah, so Chip Dugo, are you Anthony? What's his name? Man, what's your other name, bro? $127, 333, green. Yeah, that's me. Yeah, I saw you somewhere. I can't remember what other stream I saw you in. Yeah, I don't know why they don't... You told me that account's not allowed. I'm not sure. I didn't do anything to keep it from there. It's just not allowed. All right, I can look it up to make sure it's not banned here or something, but... $459, SpaceX. Unrealized green. It's shadow banned. Yeah, I don't know. I didn't do it. You know. All right, guys. Microsoft up to 530s here. 530s. Let's see if we hold. Yeah, that's weird. MU looms. I'm green from this morning. Long on Google and the NASDAQ. Nice, dude. All right, guys. We got 15 minutes until these earnings come out. 15 minutes. I'm sticking around to cover this for you, even though I'm tired. Dude, I've been up since like 3 a.m. this morning, guys. So, I'm sorry. I want to cover it, but I'm tired, dude. Let's see what these Arnie's look like. You shit your channel. Wish you the best. Hey, thank you, man. Appreciate it. You the goat. I'm trying to stay up for you guys, man, and cover this. I'm so tired, though. Again, the numbers you want to look at is Microsoft Azure growth, cloud growth. With Google. With Google, cloud growth versus infrastructure. Published estimates range from about 28.7 billion of cloud growth to 29.6 billion. CNBC says it's 28.7 billion forecast. It's roughly 90% year-over-year growth. [02:43:09] Speaker 2: I'm going to turn that music off. NVIDIA. Yeah, NVIDIA. [02:43:37] Speaker 1: I'm watching NVIDIA here. I don't know if I should take some of those Vest accounts and swing for the fences here, but I think it's too risk-afted to buy the bigger one. We'll play with PCE tomorrow with those things. Google's still moving up. It's at 322s. Microsoft at 520s. [02:44:07] Speaker 2: Also, if you also want to trade perps, I'm going to do a commercial here. I'm going to do a commercial here. [02:44:10] Speaker 1: And look, I know you guys don't like commercials. Do you ever talk to yourself thinking you're still alive? No. Bro, listen. I am a... I got a household of four. I got a wife and two kids, bro. I... I'll put it this way. I'm not lonely. I'm not lonely. You know? I got enough people to talk to. Honestly, like, here's the thing. My wife loves listening to music. She's a big... Like, she loves music. She listens to music all the time. I listen to music so much on stream that when I'm done with my stream, when I'm done with my stream, I don't want to hear music anymore, dude. It hurts my music listening, like, enjoyment. And y'all can't hear the music right now, which may be good, but here we go. I'm in my 30s. Microsoft going to 500, mark the day. All right. Honestly, dude, I'm so tired. I genuinely been up since, like, 2 a.m. this morning. I made the mistake. I got up to go to the bathroom and I looked at my phone, bro. Boom. Couldn't go back to sleep. All right. We're up to 322s on Google. Microsoft up to 530s here. Let's talk about Google. Again, Google earnings drop in 10 minutes. 10 minutes. Let me make sure this isn't too loud for the music. Again, cloud growth for both of these are important. You want to pay attention to... to CapEx spending as well. Cloud revenue for contacts the preceding quarter produced 24.8 billion, up 82%. Cloud op income, 8.8 billion versus 2.8 billion a year ago. So tonight, watch revenue and operating income. Rapid growth is stronger evidence of an attractive business when profitability grows alongside it. So you want to watch that. AI should be strengthening the core business. Cloud gets attention, but search remains an issue. Investors will also watch Gemini adoption. Returns on AI spending. So CapEx spending for Google or Alphabet is roughly 55.2 billion this quarter. Again, they're estimating at about 55 billion of about 130% year over year. Alphabet's previously announced CapEx for this year was 195 to 205 billion. So that keeps it right on track for the year of 2026 at about 55 billion for the quarter. So we'll look to see if we get bigger numbers than that. Does growth recover in free cash flow? We'll see that as well. But these numbers drop in nine minutes for Google. Microsoft watches Zora, same cloud argument here. Microsoft is expected to report quarterly CapEx above 50 billion as well. Very similar to Google. So we'll see if that investment brings revenue. Those numbers drop in nine minutes. Waiting very much. How's your injury healing? Yeah, my knee's still torn. I mean, I don't have an ACL anymore, but I can walk normal and move around normal now. Surgery's coming soon. I don't know when, but it's coming. John, good peep. Yeah, thank you, man. Again, Oracle plans to cap additional fundraising at 20 billion through May of 2030 using a mix of debt and equity. Customer prepayments, customer-provided hardware, and vendor financing will help reduce upfront costs. Cash needs while capital spending is expected to peak. Yeah, Oracle's up pretty big here. Okay, Google here started to dip. All right, guys, eight minutes. By the 60,000 jobs. Microsoft, how are you about to do? Google, I suspect, up on earnings. All right, here we go. Seven minutes left until these earnings release here, guys. Again, watch cloud spending on both, and we're going to break all these numbers down live as soon as they drop. We also have an array of other numbers. I'm sorry, my energy's running out, dude. Like, listen, I streamed this morning for three and a half hours, and I've been streaming now literally, I mean, look, for three hours now. So I've been streaming for six and a half hours today. I'm tired, dude. And that's with being up since 2 a.m. So forgive me if I'm lower energy today. I'm just freaking tired, man. Hey, good luck, Robert, my guy. Good luck, dude. MU is popping. Yeah, see, MU. We've had big news, I mean, in the chip sector overnight. SK Hynex benefited chips. MU might be hitting 1,000 pretty soon here. Look at MU. So it's getting very close. We got six minutes left here, chat, so we'll see what we get for these numbers. Yeah, I got this caffeinated sparkling water. It tastes horrible. It's mango sparkling water. It's not good at all. It's not very good. I don't like this. Yeah, really, I'm slowing down here, guys, so. Forgive me. Low tea? Definitely not low tea, but. No sleep, sir. Here we go. Google up there to 322s right now. 322s. Microsoft up at 530s. Cloud growth, incredibly important for both of these companies. CapEx spending, incredibly important for both of these companies. We're going to get the numbers in five minutes. Again, technically, I believe it's, what is it? Microsoft is expected to drop at 405, technically. Google, Class A Google, G-O-O-G-L shares, voting shares, drop right at the closing bell in four minutes. Look at Google turn down here. So Google actually dropping a little bit as we approach these earnings releases. Google tanking. Dude, I'm rich. Who needs sleep? Yeah, I don't know where you're at, Steve. Oh, you're in Germany, aren't you? Jack and Coke, bro. Nah, dude. All righty, look at Google fall as we approach the closing bell right now. So the closing bell is here. Google is falling down. Four minutes left, chat. Four minutes. Again, which one are you most bullish in? Google or Microsoft? Let me know in the chat right now. Let's talk about it. But look at Google fall here. So Google down to 321s. I am in Microsoft. I'm not in Google right now in my main portfolio. But I think I might have it in a different one, to be honest. Again, Google up to 320s right now. Here we go. Three minutes. Microsoft up to 530s here. Google up to 320s. More bullish on Microsoft. Suspicious drop on Google. I'm bullish on Google. Bear trap. Someone knows something. Bitcoin going strong. Effing exciting. Hey, we're here. I'm trying to keep my energy up for you guys. Like, I'm trying here, okay? Microsoft all-time high in five minutes. Bro, I hope so. I'm in Microsoft. But I've got some room. My average price in Microsoft is 387. 59, to be exact. 387.59. It's currently at 530s. So we got a big cushion in Microsoft here. So I hope it does break all-time highs. Let's see. Here we go. Google on the left. Microsoft on the right. Two and a half minutes here, Chad. Two and a half minutes. Bitcoin at 81500s. Yeah, Bitcoin's doing better. I mean, the Fed meeting didn't shock it like everybody thought. Like, I don't know why people thought we were getting a hike today. It happens every single Fed meeting. But we're, you know... I try to tell them. Nobody listens. And most people agree. But we got a lot of people betting on a hike when we're just not going to get it. Microsoft going down. Recent layoff. We'll see. Again, time will tell. We'll see in two minutes here. Thoughts on SanDisk? I think SanDisk is interesting. John looks good. Not tired. I mean, do I seem tired, guys? I mean, I might. I don't know. We got a minute and a half left. I am tired. Hopefully, I don't... Hopefully, I don't seem too tired here. Alright, let's get it, guys. We got one and a half minutes. Google has more chance of a surprise than Microsoft, in my opinion. Yeah, I mean, we might get some volatility here. We've had some interesting numbers here. We had SK Hynix recently. We had other tech plays at Meta last week. That we didn't really get easy reactions here from it. Alright, we got one minute left now. One minute. One minute. Yeah, but that's what I try to explain to them, Maddens. I literally try to explain to them. Watch the Fed watch tool and trust those odds. Yeah, the earnings aren't out yet. They drop at the closing bell. Here's Microsoft on the right. Here's Google on the left. Okay, so here we go. 25 seconds. Again, Microsoft is technically supposed to drop at 4.05. Google is supposed to drop right at the closing bell. But we do see pushes in Microsoft leading into this. Here's Google. Alright, guys. 10 seconds. 10 seconds here. Alright, here we go. Okay. There's the... Look at Google run up here. So, or Microsoft run up at the closing bell. Alright, let's watch for the numbers here to come out. The numbers should be releasing very soon. We should get Google numbers first. Alright, so, so far we've seen a little pop in Microsoft, too. No numbers I'm showing on Google yet. Still waiting. Alright, here's Google start to move. Microsoft nothing yet. Still waiting. 320's. Microsoft heading down some now, but still waiting for Google. Google's supposed to release right at the closing bell, but we don't have them yet. Okay. No numbers are out for Google yet. Okay, Microsoft looks like they might be out actually. Here, let's check Microsoft. Okay, so Microsoft looks like it's out. Wait for it. I don't see anything on Microsoft yet. Okay, Microsoft posted first quarter revenue of $92.28 billion. Expected $90 billion, roughly. First quarter adjusted EPS $489 versus $473 BDPS. First quarter cloud revenue $63.9 billion. They expected $61.62 billion. First quarter CapEx $39.37 billion. They expected $45.93 billion. First quarter operating income $45.92 billion. So CapEx actually went down, which is a big win for Microsoft in making them go up. So capital spending went down for Microsoft. Again, CapEx $39.37 billion. They expected $45.93 billion. They're doing better than expected, but I'll put these numbers up in chat right now for Microsoft. Lower CapEx, beaten EPS, beaten revenue, operating income better than expected for Microsoft here. Again, here's the Microsoft numbers in the chat right now. Again, $492 EPS versus $472 expected. Revenue of $92.3 billion versus $90.6 billion expected. Look at Google here, though. So Google is going down right now. Microsoft is ripping up here at $550s right now. So Google is going down. Microsoft is ripping up. Again, we put the Microsoft numbers in the chat. Google posted $212 EPS versus $287 expected. Revenue of $127.58 versus $127.93. So Alphabet missed third quarter revenue. Operating income was lower than expected as well. Third quarter EPS was lower than expected. So Google missed. This is the more dangerous one right now. Google missed EPS by a pretty big margin for third quarter EPS. They missed revenue by a very small margin. And operating income was lower than expected for Google here. So Google missed all of these numbers. Not good. That is not good. And look at Google drop here. Here's the numbers in the chat right now. Lower CapEx is good for Microsoft. That's why Microsoft is ripping up. And it might be good for AI as a whole. But these Google numbers might scare everybody here to be honest here. So these Google numbers are not good. And they might freak people out. Again, $212 EPS versus $287 year over year for Google. Let me see if I can find more details on why this happened. Again, cloud revenue showed up at $30.7 EPS versus $28. So cloud revenue actually exceeded expectations. Again, but $212 EPS versus $302 EPS for Google is bad here. Yeah, that's bad for Google. Look at Google fall here. That's pretty bad for them. Honestly, that's a big miss, to be honest. Again, $212 EPS versus $303 EPS. Revenue of $127 EPS versus $127 EPS. They missed revenue and EPS. They also had lower operating income. So big miss for Google here. Big miss. I don't see ServiceNow out yet. ServiceNow is supposed to drop at $410. So ServiceNow should come out in like five minutes. But yeah, that's bad. Again, that's not good. Microsoft did really well. Lower CapEx beats and everything else, including cloud growth for Microsoft here. Search and other revenue, $63.4 EPS versus $65 billion expected. So lower quarter three search and other revenue for Google as well. Cloud revenue, $30.7 EPS versus $28. So cloud revenue beat for Google. Search and other revenue missed. So these are rough numbers for Google, to be honest. Microsoft's still doing okay. Y'all bullish or bearish on these companies. I mean, Microsoft killed it. They did great. Google, not so much here, unfortunately. Yeah. So Microsoft, not so much. Rough. T-Mobile just dropped their numbers. But again, Microsoft posted $492 versus $472. Fiscal year adjusted EPS revenue of 92.3 versus 90. So Microsoft BDPS beat revenue. Lowered CapEx. Had better operating income. ServiceNow looks like it just came out for ServiceNow. We also had news that Vance is engaging one of Iran's most powerful hardliners to revive peace talks, according to sources. ServiceNow seems to be out here. Let me check. Fortinet is also out. T-Mobile is also out. Here's Fortinet's numbers. I'll put those up on screen as well. But yeah. Yeah, these are rough numbers for Google. Microsoft did well. Yikes. Do we think Microsoft will hold plus 20 at open tomorrow? I don't know, bro. Here's Carvana. Carvana just reported numbers. I mean, Microsoft's numbers were good all the way around for the most part. I didn't see anything that was super negative in Microsoft's numbers. You know, so I didn't see anything super negative in Microsoft. eBay just posted. Here's eBay's numbers in the chat right now. We'll put them up. Yeah, I can't find now either, to be honest. I'm looking for ServiceNow here. They should be up somewhere. Maybe they're not out yet. I don't know. Maybe they're just reacting to other tech movement here. ServiceNow, technically. I'll stick around and see what ServiceNow's numbers in two minutes. And then we'll see what we get. Ford is out. Ford posted 49 CinePS versus 41 Expected. Revenue 49.5 Billy versus 49 Expected here. Here's Ford's numbers. Here's Ford's numbers. Here's Ford's numbers. [03:04:47] Speaker ?: Here's Ford's numbers. [03:05:17] Speaker 1: Microsoft EPS again. Microsoft did great, I think. All right. So we did have some news that Al Jazeera reporter says Iran insists its conditions must be implemented before any nuclear negotiations as indirect U.S.-Iran messages continue and that the U.S. proposal seeks to combine Iran's seven conditions with nuclear demands, including highly enriched uranium and inspections with phased implementation here. ServiceNow should be releasing in about 20 seconds here if you want to check ServiceNow. I don't know. Maybe this is just sympathy movement from the other tech numbers that drop. Honeywell posted. All right. Let's see if ServiceNow moves a lot in 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. Okay. Yeah. Here's ServiceNow. Negative reaction so far to ServiceNow numbers. Let me see what they are. FedEx posted 374 versus 334. Yeah. Look at ServiceNow dump here. So ServiceNow is dropping quickly now. I still don't see anything. ServiceNow posted 102 versus $1 expected. Or no, they posted $1 versus $1 expected. They miss EPS. They beat revenue. So a slight beat in revenue and missing EPS for ServiceNow. And they are negatively reacting to this. Look at ServiceNow drop. Yeah. I'm going to get out of here, guys. I've been streaming since early, early this morning. I've been awake since like 2 or 3 a.m. So I'm going to get out of here. Again, if you want to help support the channel, there's a lot of ways you can help do it. Again, there's a lot of ways you can help support the channel if you want to check it out. Number one, you can check out Kalshi. I've got a commercial if you guys want to watch it. Okay. So has anybody seen this perp market on Kalshi? You can trade so many different things. And the benefit of this is number one, it's a CFTC regulated exchange. Number two is that you can trade on the weekends with no rollover. This is incredibly useful. If you look at this here, you can trade Bitcoin perps, oil perps, copper, aluminum, gold, ETH, indices, and more. And so this is a way you can trade on the weekend, again, with no rollover. And I'm going to stress this again. The big benefit of this is that it's a CFTC regulated exchange that is incredibly useful to know that your money is safe with them. And yeah, if you want a $50 sign up bonus, all you have to do is sign up and spend $25 trading on there on Kalshi as a whole. And it helps support the beginner trading channel as well. And so I'll include that link in the description and in the chat. We appreciate your support. Let's get back to markets. All right, guys. So again, that's my commercial here. So let me know what you guys think. If you want to check out Kalshi, here's the link. Check it out. You can also check out... I forgot to put the Kalshi link up in my description here. Let me throw that in there. Here's the Kalshi link if you want to check it out. Honestly, again, I like Kalshi as well. A lot of cool stuff on Kalshi. But I'm going to be trading on Vest tomorrow. Because Vest is a funded account program slash market. Like, it's not just a funded account program. They also have a conventional market. Look at all the assets I can trade here for PCE tomorrow. We do have PCE inflation tomorrow. And again, these are affiliates of mine. Kalshi is a partner affiliate of mine. So is Vest. But look at all this stuff I can trade on Vest, dude. [03:09:05] Speaker 2: Would you look at it? [03:09:07] Speaker 1: Dude, I'm so excited to get to trade stocks. I've been trading futures. I'm so excited to trade stocks on Vest, too. Yeah, I lost a $10 account earlier. Don't judge this. I didn't lose a $10 account. But look, if you've got to get funded here, you've got a $10 account. Drawdown is $10. All right, it's $9.50. But hey, if you want to check them out, I'll put that link up. You can help support your boy here in this channel. I'm going to get out of here. Again, listen. Here's the link. [03:09:33] Speaker 2: Use code BGT.