‘Legitimate concern’ among GOP about midterm prospects: Christie

[0:00] Now with the round table joined by our regulars Chris Christie and Donna Brazile. Also the former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy and former North Dakota Senator Democrat Heidi Heitkamp. Welcome to you all Chris. Let's just start out. Where do you think things stand as we head into these final 48 hours. You know I spent a lot of time on the phone yesterday George with friends of mine all over the country and I haven't heard Republicans this nervous and or despondent probably since 2006. It's it's bad everywhere. I mean I [0:30] in Texas the Abbott campaign is legitimately concerned about what's going to happen there. Yes. And the governor's race there. You go to Iowa. They've written off the governor's race in Iowa. And then you look at the Senate races. Look at Georgia with Ossoff doing what he's doing. The Georgia governorship is in real danger of flipping to the Democrats. So you know you look at some of these things and you look at South Carolina being in play. It may not all fall the Democrats way. [0:59] But there is legitimate concern. And it all comes back to three things. It comes back to affordability and inflation. And the president's numbers are 50 plus points underwater there. [1:12] It comes back to the Iran war which is affecting Republicans more than Democrats because they feel like he lied to them about it. It didn't do it. And lastly it's just the president's demeanor which for a lot of people right now they're getting tired of. [1:25] But Donna all these close all these Senate races the key Senate races are still within the margin of error. That's right. That's why Democrats are going to keep their foot on the gas. [1:33] We're not going to stop engaging voters. We're looking for independence trying to move even young people at this late hour. Look you talk about hearing from some of your Republican friends. [1:44] I'm hearing from Democrats in red states saying send me money. Send me volunteers. We're knocking on more doors. [1:50] I mean my home state of Louisiana every member of my family they've cast their ballots. That's never happened. George even before Halloween before they got liquored up and was eating candy they were voting. [2:03] Kind of. So this this moment. I like that. I like liquored up this morning. They're talking about what's called a black lash across the south. It is true because look at Alabama 2. [2:12] Mr. Mr. Shamari. That seat they they literally told black voters that you don't matter. Your votes don't matter. Your voice don't matter. You know what black voters are saying. [2:22] You doggone right. I'll vote matter. So in South Carolina 1. Tennessee 9 which they split up into three districts. [2:28] People are voting. So there's a chance there. Alabama 2. We have even Arkansas 2. You know the country by congressional districts because black people are fed up and mad. [2:39] But it's not just blacks. It's Hispanics who are turning out in record numbers in Texas and elsewhere. And Heidi across the Midwest a real concern among farmers as well. [2:47] Yep. I mean when you look at everybody said really Kansas really Iowa. They have negative state growth and they can always point to and should point to policies of Donald Trump. [2:57] And so they're starting to either think I'm staying home or being very quiet. You don't see the red hats. You don't see the big Trump signs out in rural America the way you used to. [3:07] And then if you're going to lose a race. If you were practicing to lose a race in Kansas you take after a large employer in the aerospace industry which is what he did. [3:17] You would take after the meatpacking industry by basically removing their workforce and then you tariff farmers. [3:24] And so these the and then you put on top of that the quality of candidates which we haven't really talked about. [3:31] Because of the president I think the Democrats recruited and people felt obligated to put their name on the ballot. Really good people. [3:39] And so you take Hamilton versus Marshall. Really amazing. You take a look at the sent the governor's race in Iowa. [3:47] These are all places we can win. And I wouldn't be surprised if you saw some great plains transitions in Montana. [3:54] Maybe win that that district in Montana. And and I think he's got a shot at at winning a Senate seat. [4:03] Kevin you know the House about as well as anybody the Republican majority. How high do you see this blue wave going against Republicans. [4:10] You know at the beginning I thought it would be very tough for the Democrats to get above 225. I think they could get into the 230s. [4:17] But this this is this is normally what happens. Only two times in the history of the last hundred years that the party to have the White House actually gained seats. [4:26] So let's not overplay this. Democrats are not going to win the number of seats that Republicans won against Obama or against Clinton. [4:34] OK. And Obama was sitting at 50 percent approval and we won 63 seats. [4:38] Are they going to have a good night. Yes. But you raised a very good point. A lot of these a lot of these plays in the Senate are in the margin of error. [4:46] So we don't know who turns out is going to make a big difference. And we all play off the Cook Report. But remember in the presidential year and 20. [4:56] They said Democrats were going to win nine to 15 seats. Not one Republican in the House lost that year. And we beat 14 Democrats. [5:04] Now I don't think they're going to get it wrong this year. But let's not overplay our hand here. [5:08] I think that's one of the cases. Well quality. Quality of candidate matters. And I will. I will. Quality candidate matters. But Heidi missed a few of them. [5:16] Right. So like they've gone on. This is this is these races in Senate race in Maine and the Senate race in Michigan are competitive because the quality of candidate in those two races on the Democratic side is really pretty bad. [5:28] And Troy Jackson is a bad candidate. He just is. Now Susan Collins's approval ratings as Kevin and I were talking about earlier are lower than they've ever been in an election year. [5:38] But if they had a good candidate in Maine this race would have been over weeks ago. Same thing in Michigan. So the thing that's keeping the Senate competitive, George, and why it's not a layup for the Democrats to take over the Senate is because in key states like Maine and Michigan that should be deep blue, ready to go, they're losing. [5:55] You miss you. You miss you miss Ohio. Right. Right. Right. [5:58] Right. But OK. Look at Ashley Henson is probably the best candidate in the country. [6:02] And yet I will win the government. But I think she'll win. There's a margin of despair. But the governor's race is already gone. [6:09] And she's overperforming. So she's got to get switched. Come on. I mean, yeah. Look, look, the Midwest, I think, will send us a message. [6:14] I think the Midwest will send a message. I agree with you. I think the Corn Belt, the Rust Belt and, of course, the South. We will we will know by nine o'clock if Democrats will take back the House as well as the Senate. [6:25] But you want to talk about the quality of candidates. I mean, Ohio, Ohio, which Donald Trump won by double digits. I mean, that ad is still having a ripple effect. [6:36] You're not going to get any argument from me about the quality of the gubernatorial candidate in Ohio. He's one of the one of the worst political candidates our party has put forward for major positions. [6:47] Well, then keep going. Let's talk about Texas and why that state is in play. [6:49] Well, that's fine. But Donna, look, part of what's going on here is I don't want Heidi sitting here talking about all these fabulous Democratic candidates and how they're all so wonderful. [6:58] They're not. And by the way, I've never said all the Republican candidates are good. [7:01] I've been on this air talking about Ramaswamy and talking about Paxton. So all I want is try to bring a balanced approach to this. [7:08] Yes, it's a good Democratic night for the historic reasons that Kevin's talking about because of the president's lack of popularity. [7:14] But they should be doing even better in some of those places. So I want to make this point about polling because we're all like, oh, well, it's within the margin of error. [7:23] When we look at the governor's races in both Virginia and in New Jersey, that polling on those days, so polling on those days had New Jersey up four. [7:34] She won by almost 15. That polling on in Virginia had her up seven and she won by almost 16. [7:42] And so I think when we're looking at where we're looking at the fundamentals, which is we've been organizing, Democrats have been organizing in the no king rally. [7:52] And I know you don't want to talk about that, but think about what an organizing opportunity that's been. [7:57] Think about all the things that have happened from the from the time President Trump was inaugurated to today. [8:04] Their trends have been overwhelmingly favorable to the Democrats. [8:08] And I think this is going to be, if not a wave, a tsunami election. [8:12] If you want to do polling, they'll go through all the swing states that had Kamala Harris ahead and she lost them all. [8:18] I mean, the problem you're going to have here, the enthusiasm gap goes really to one side. [8:22] Democrats are excited. The reason the president's out there and working so hard, we've got to get the Republicans excited. [8:28] And Republicans aren't excited to answer a poll. So when you go out and I watched this in 2010, it takes three days to do a poll. [8:34] We could get every Republican we needed in the first night. You get every Democrat to answer the poll in the first night. [8:39] It's hard to get enough Republicans. So you won't know till Election Day. [8:42] It's really the independents that are going to make a difference. [8:44] You talk about the young people voting. In Kansas, they're turning out around the colleges. [8:49] I don't see it as much in Texas and others. That makes a difference. [8:52] In the last presidential, we had how many Hispanics turned out really helped Republicans. [8:57] This time it's playing against us. [8:58] You should look at North Carolina. [8:59] One of the big questions is going to be what happens the day after. [9:03] Does the president pursue all of these legal attacks? Does it keep on going? [9:07] Will we have an outcome within days or even weeks? [9:09] I think we will. And look, I think that there will be some piecemeal fights. [9:14] But if it goes in the direction that we're all talking about this morning, I think it'll be very hard for the president [9:21] to be able to do anything that makes a difference because it will look so decisive by the end of the night on Tuesday night. [9:29] I think we'll know by the end of the night, Tuesday night, a majority in the House. [9:32] I think we'll know a majority in the Senate. [9:34] And then it takes a lot of the edge away, I think, on that. [9:37] Look, if I were the Democrats, the biggest thing I'd be concerned about is I've got to get above 51 in the Senate. [9:44] Because if there are 51 in the Senate, I would bet every dollar I have in my pocket that John Fetterman is going to be a Republican. [9:50] He is so unpopular in Pennsylvania among the Democrats in Pennsylvania, more popular with Republicans. [9:57] If John Fetterman wants to get re-elected in 2028, his only path to re-election in 2028 is as a Republican. [10:03] Donnie, he keeps denying it. [10:04] Look, I talked to Mr. Fetterman. I like John. [10:07] I mean, I went up to Pennsylvania to campaign for him when he was sick and unable to campaign in 2022. [10:15] John Fetterman is a solid Democrat. And we'll see what happens. [10:18] Look, he has friends. I'll bet you three hitters on that one. [10:21] Wait till he sees his whole numbers in the Democratic primary. [10:25] I'll worry about that later. I don't want to enter your pocket. [10:28] But let me just say this. [10:30] George, since Donald Trump walked back into the White House in 2025, Democrats have been on a roll. [10:37] They have been fighting like hell. [10:38] I've never seen this party fight so hard. [10:41] It's been scrappy. It's been tough. [10:43] We had a tough primary season. [10:44] But it has energized people. [10:46] And that's something you cannot take away from the American electorate. [10:50] But that happens to every minority party. [10:52] Republicans fought real hard when Obama got out. [10:54] The difference, the mistake the Democrats are making, they have an opportunity here. [10:58] But they have not laid out to the American public what they'll do if they win. [11:02] Oh, they have? [11:02] No, they didn't do a contract with America. [11:04] They're going to have a hard time governing. [11:05] Because they're not winning this thing. [11:07] Republicans are losing it. [11:08] I'm going to tell you. [11:09] Well, has he laid out a lot? [11:10] Having been in the position, I know exactly what Hakeem is going to do. [11:13] He's slow to make a decision. [11:15] Maybe with Pelosi gone, he'll be better for him. [11:17] But he has not laid out an agenda. [11:18] He has. [11:19] How are you going to lie? [11:20] How do you have to control that whole group? [11:21] Let's look ahead now to Tuesday night. [11:23] What are you watching as the night unfolds? [11:24] I'm watching Kentucky. [11:25] The first thing to understand where we end up in Andy Barr's old seat. [11:29] That'll be a big indicator. [11:31] I'll watch Lawler's District in Fitzpatrick. [11:33] Lynn Lawler's New York. [11:35] Yeah. [11:35] Because of the East Coast, where it breaks down. [11:37] That will probably send an early indication how the night's going. [11:40] Look, there's close numbers right now in the House already. [11:43] And if Republicans stay in the 200s, two years from now, we're going to have a really big night. [11:49] Texas, Kansas, Michigan, South Carolina. [11:52] Those are the early ones I'm going to look at and see whether this is going to be a good night for Democrats or a great night for Democrats. [12:00] Those are the four states I'll look at. [12:02] In addition, I think Kevin's right on those House seats in New York and in Bucks County, Pennsylvania. [12:08] If those go Democrat, then I think they definitely get into the 230s. [12:13] Of course, I'm watching Georgia. [12:14] Georgia's on my mind. [12:15] I'm rooting for Keisha Lancebottom. [12:18] I'm watching Florida. [12:19] Angie Nixon, who's running a stellar campaign. [12:21] Can she make up all of the distance? [12:23] I don't know. [12:24] I'm watching Mississippi, where my grandmother was born. [12:26] Is that real? [12:27] It's real. [12:28] It's as real as Mississippi. [12:29] Absolutely. [12:30] It's real. [12:31] Come on. [12:31] Come on. [12:31] Trump went to Mississippi for a reason. [12:33] And he's closing his campaign with a tele-rally in Louisiana. [12:36] I'm watching my home city of Louisiana. [12:38] Yeah, these are deeply red states. [12:40] I'm watching how Democrats are making it. [12:42] And, of course, I've had a soft spot for Tallarico, so I'm watching Texas. [12:47] I'm watching Maine, because if she doesn't survive in Maine, it's going to be a really good night for Democrats, [12:53] because, you know, we have a candidate situation. [12:56] But I'm also watching Mississippi. [12:59] And there is where candidate quality matters. [13:01] And he has been remarkable. [13:03] He has done it with a flare that I think could carry Mississippi. [13:07] And then we're back to African-American votes, thinking that you're trying to take away my vote. [13:12] We're going to show up. [13:13] And if the Delta shows up, he's going to win. [13:16] Okay. [13:16] Then let's get the final forecast from everybody, House and Senate. [13:20] I think the Democrats win the House. [13:22] And I think the Senate's up for a toss-up. [13:26] I think they're going to do quite well. [13:28] I think they can reach up to 230. [13:30] Spill it out. [13:31] Come on. [13:31] I'll say 234 in the House for the Democrats, 52 in the Senate for the Democrats. [13:38] And for the first time in 16 years, and this one really hurts me, 27 Democratic governors. [13:44] 27 Democratic governors. [13:45] 27 Democratic governors. [13:45] They haven't won the majority of governors since 2010. [13:47] 2010. [13:48] 18 new governors across the country. [13:50] I agree with you. [13:50] We're going to see Democratic governors in all of the key battleground states in 2028. [13:55] I predict that the Democrats will pull between 225 and 234 in the House. [14:00] And I think the Senate's going to be 52-48. [14:04] And I'm not liquored up yet. [14:05] 225 to 234. [14:07] Come on, boys. [14:08] Why don't we say 200 to 250? [14:10] Come on. [14:10] What's that prediction? [14:12] We're supposed to be experts here. [14:13] Come on, man. [14:14] Okay, okay, I'm going to be the outlier. [14:18] I think you're going to be closer to 240 than you are to 230. [14:21] No. [14:22] And I think that we're going to win the Senate seats by 50 points. [14:25] I think Republicans beat the Senate. [14:27] No. [14:28] And 50-50, we're the majority. [14:30] The fundamentals are so bad. [14:32] Watch Maine, Michigan, and Alaska. [14:33] If Republicans win those, Democrats do not have a chance. [14:36] You got underwater is huge.