Its THE END Thursday: Stock Market Crashing?! CPI + Micron/Memory Stocks DUMPING

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: We just saw the stock market get absolutely hit here on the day, dropping on SPY from around 775 to lows on the day of 767, give or take. QQQ, which is more important in my opinion, specifically around tech, has dropped from basically 741 down to lows of 726 near on the day. Now your 50MA is there, but your 100MA is what's more important, and it looks like that will be getting tested very soon. Now hindsight, I will say we're still very close to all-time highs, but we need to talk about what actually is taking place here. Now everyone's been more concerned with what's happening with memory, and I'll say, micro getting below the 100MA is concerning. SNDK looks pretty nasty here. WDC looks bad. But do I think China and what's going on with memory is going to ruin the stock market? No. I personally do not believe that. That is my personal opinion when I look at this, okay? The bad part in which we warned you yesterday was diesel, was oil, was inflation data. Because again, today we got that report. Again, CPI, not really a surprise to me. You come out at 3.7% with the expectation was 3.6, so it was hotter than expected. Already rising month over month once again. Again, not a surprise. Now tomorrow we have PPI, but we also have TSM earnings, so we'll get kind of a double potential. I think it could either go really bad or kind of hold us solid. So we'll see kind of what goes on there. But PPI, I do see as being more dramatic or worse than CPI. I would have to expect because diesel prices should impact that even more. TSM, we'll see how that goes out. I think they're going to beat earnings as, you know, everything in semiconductors. I'd be shocked if you don't. Now, this is the best visual that you can look at in regards to what's going on with oil, okay? You can literally just go to Fred and go look at this for yourself. If you want to Google it for yourself, just type in literally diesel price chart, and it's like the first thing that pops up. And so looking at diesel from essentially the beginning of the year, okay? And you can see we had our first big spike was in the beginning of March. Obviously, when the Iran war started, you had the dip, which again, if you go to US oil and just take a quick look, you can see that when oil dipped back in July down to lows of 68, 69. Again, you can go back to that chart as you guys can see. That's when you make your low here. Now, I will say this is not dramatic of a dip there on diesel. Now, since then, diesel has gone much higher than its previous high here in May. Why is that important? Again, the barrel is not performing the same. This diesel is clearly what's leading this inflation data and really what's really killing us right now. Diesel has just gone straight up. That's why going into today, this wasn't a surprise or anything like that, because we knew this should be negatively impacting what's going on with inflation data, because it's, you know, inflation data is giving you not just the last 30 days, but really, you know, the past 60 to the last 30 days is what you're really getting, because you're not get to see that actually go into the pipeline. And so now we are seeing some topping signals potentially on diesel. And we're seeing this come after Trump made Ukraine and Russia basically play nice, not strike diesel facilities. And I do think the Iran situation is getting better. Again, if we look at traffic overall, it's happening in the straighter for moves, it has picked up again. I've been as unbiased as I possibly could, could be on the situation. I've covered every angle of this. So there's really no other way. You know, I'm, I'm as honest as going to get about the situation. I'm not here to sugarcoat it. I think I've been one of the bigger bears across the market in regards to oil and the concern there. I will say this is all happening at a pretty fantastic time in the market. Okay. Why do I say that? So you have a few things that are currently going on. And again, people are after today, and I think we're just conditioned to not seeing dips in the market or something. But again, you're still very, very high sitting at 767, literally, you know, just bringing up the, you know, the tool here at, at market close, you are still within 1.6% of all-time highs in SPY. At market close right now, you're red. So let's say you're at one or 764, you're still within 2% of being at all-time highs. So really not super concerning. However, you're going into midterms, which we knew we would be kind of expected a little bit of a dip going into that. Number two, inflation data, more fear around the Fed. However, once this cools off, that's where things really can heat back up for the market. And so we really got to play the patience game and the waiting game of does diesel continue coming down? Because if it doesn't, inflation is going to continue to be bad and the Fed will continue to act. It will continue to raise rates. And it's important to realize that the Fed is different than the Fed that we saw with Jerome Powell. This Fed is not going to guide us and tell us that we're going to, you know, cut rates or raise rates when X, Y, and Z happens. This Fed is just going to do it. Yeah, just Nike style. They're just doing it, right? So very important. They've made this very clear to us. Now the new head of the Fed. Okay. So when we're looking at this and looking at the market, that's why it's instantaneously getting priced in because we just didn't have it priced in just yet. And the market, I don't think suspected that data would have been this bad. And once the snowballs are rolling, it really started going. So where we're at currently there, this is the most important thing in the market for me, as far as do we, you know, calm down and do we start going back to the upside? I don't think this is necessarily a question of, is the AI trade over? Is memory done or GPUs done or semiconductors done? That's not really the story. Now this can relay and really hurt the AI trade. I will say that right now. What do I mean? So if we start to see the market get into an area, which it is in a concerning area, we've talked about yields. We've talked about, you know, the 30 year yield, the 10 year yield is pretty high, but you know, coming down slowly, but still even you're way too high up here. Okay. That being said, we've talked a lot about this and this can just put more pressure on the market, especially on the lending side of things. Now that will just cause a slowdown overall. Does that pull the rug out? Does that create a crazy amount of selling? I don't think so. Um, I don't think that's really the case here, but what I will say is I do think that you're in a position where going into November, going into December, I'm not really that concerned. Okay. That's my personal opinion. And again, what I've said on CXMT, I do not care about anything regarding China. China is the least of my concerns. So anyone that's panicking around CXMT, replacing Micron, SK Hynix, et cetera, until they have a product that's actually out there, I think it's all just FUD. I think it's all just fear. This is the same story that we've heard and seen from China. So again, the focus for everyone should be inflation data. What's happening with oil and how do we get rid of that issue? That should be the only bear case in my opinion on the market, because that's what's going to impact and keep yields higher and keep more pressure and stress on the overall economy. Once this is handled, once oil is handled, yields will come down. I want to make that very clear. Again, I know the Trump administration has said some wild stuff, but I think they're pretty right when it comes to that. Now, the question is, is how and when does that get handled? Okay. The other part to understand about this, and I think it's very important when you start getting some downside, getting some fear in the market, is that people realize really where we're at as an economy. Okay. The Trump administration is willing to do just about anything to keep the market afloat. That's very important that we understand. They are willing to do just about anything to keep the markets going up, staying bullish by any means necessary, whether you like them, hate them, doesn't matter. They are incentivized to do so by personal investments or anything in between. Okay. And they are gun ho on AI data center, build outs, et cetera. So it's hard for me to get bearish against that idea. Just telling you right now, now going into the market, going to what we're going to be looking at on the equities and the levels. Let's get into it. Now, before we go too far, I do want to say a few things. Number one, if you guys want to see what I'm trading, how I'm trading, everything in between, the discord link is down below. I didn't go crazy on the scalps today. Jay mentioned more of the setups there. Honestly, all I did this morning, it was super simple. I was watching ES futures this morning at PDL or right there at 7834. I said early this morning, I said, we started getting below that. It's the number one trade, easiest trade on the day. I said right here, this is definitely what I'm looking at. It's all I care about. We're looking for it under that. We're looking for a straight downside. This is going to be a bloodbath down towards the 50 MA and you ended up going much lower. So it was awesome. That's literally all I traded on the day. I didn't care about anything else. I just rode that short and I only posted what I trade. Jordan went more into equities, things we're looking at there, but all those trades are there for you. On the other side, our free community is there for you guys as well. If you're interested, you get access to again, what we're looking at there. You can also get the free trial of trade deck as well. Something that we're doing with trade deck now too, if you go into prep, you're going to be able to get all the levels inside of trade deck built directly in. This is going to be able to get around trading view and what they're doing there. So you're going to be able to go into literally every single thing, every single stock that you want to look at in the market. So again, just quickly typing it out, we'll go into something like, let's go to Micron for instance. Okay. So Micron going into the trade here. Again, we rejected your level right there at 956. Your next level is at 891. It's really that simple what you're looking at there as well. More details if you have questions as well inside the discord. So do what you got to do. The links down below. This is really just the beginning of what we're doing with trade deck. We're really excited about where this is going. And again, it's only going to get better and better. The last thing I'll say is too, if you're trading prop firms, I recommend take profit trader. It is the best in the game. Do what you got to do. Again, the 25k counts is where you should start. 1500 target, 1500 drawdown code HEFE, get you 40% off, do what you got to do. All the links are down below. Now, as far as SPY, as far as the market is concerned, what are we looking at? What do we want to see? Again, I think the levels have not steered us wrong whatsoever here in the market over the past few days and weeks. And so what are we looking at here? So when you go into it, as we said, and as we were looking at from the previous day, let's go to the 15 minute. So you got back below our level here at 776.8. Again, below that, you had to be looking for downside. You also swept that low from the PDL and you came straight down to the 50 in May. I think ES futures were a much better example because the levels have been very, very, very good here. But I'll come back to that in a second. If we are getting back below the 50 in May into tomorrow, which we already are doing that in the after hours. Okay. Right there. What I'm going to be looking for into tomorrow is breaking below that low of day, which will be the PDL and ultimately down towards 760 and the 100 in May, which is 757. You do not have much support anywhere else. You have a small gap fill here as well around 765.6. What I'm looking for there for the upside, I'd be pretty cautious. If you stay above the 50 in May, you can start pushing back up. This is pretty illiquid, but again, you got to be above the 50 in May to look for any upside in my personal opinion. I'm going into QQQ or we're looking at there pretty simple here. You ended the day right at the 50 in May. So again, makes a lot of sense. What we were looking at here as well as getting back below PDL. Once you did that, you can actually see here on the five minute at market open. You break down, you get back above and you ultimately get trapped right there. From there, it's just a straight shot down, down to our key level 731, which is also on trade deck. And then you come down to the 50 in May and you kind of just sit and chill there. Going to tomorrow, I think it's really simple what you're looking for here as well. You might get a break deeper. We'll see. But again, pause. 722 to 100, the 100 in May, 720.8 is really what we're looking at right now. So again, that's going to be your big support, your big level there. You go to something like the one day chart, you can see that we have spent a lot of time near that 100 in May, but balancing and finding buyers primarily. We had a bit of a trap back here before. So we'll see how this plays out once we come back into it. Below the 100 in May, you're looking for 714.5. Keep it simple. If you stay above the 50 in May, looking back into 731, above 731, you could start pushing back towards, you know, that 748. But again, I'm not looking straight for that. I'll have more updates throughout the day on Twitter, Discord, et cetera. It's all there for you. Now, I don't love going into futures here, but I will for the sake of the video, because I think futures are very key. And I think they give you a much, much, much better insight into what's actually going on here. So when you go into NASDAQ right now in the after hours, you are breaking below the 100 in May and 30,000 overall. That is very, very, very concerning to say the absolute least. You have nothing down towards 29.6. That is a lot of room. And it's, you know, basically in line with what we're looking at on QQQ as well, excluding the 100 in May. So really, this is kind of a nasty look. And you can also see, this is an area that we were stuck in for quite some time here on the NASDAQ. If you go back into August, we reject at the same spot right here, where the 100 in May basically is, is basically 30,007, 30,050, three times and ultimately shot to the downside. So you got to find buyers right now. If I had to mark a area of some moderate support where you could start seeing some, potentially, I would say it's 29,800. That's where I would suspect to find some buying, which is over 100 points away from where you're at now, closer to 200 points further of downside. So again, very concerning what I'm looking at, why I'm looking at it, make sure that makes sense. If you stay above the 100 in May, I'm looking for buyers to step in pretty aggressively. So again, above the 100 in May, I think this gets back to 30,300. We'll see no reason to push the agenda. Why I'm looking at that. Hopefully that makes sense as well. On the side of ES, again, futures there for the S&P 500. Again, you have support 7724, but really looking for the 100 in May in your 7,700, 7693. I wouldn't overcomplicate the situation. I think it's very simple, very easy, what we're looking at, why we're looking at it. Make sure that makes sense. If you have questions, please leave a comment, et cetera. I'll try to make sure I can go over any of those questions as quickly as possible for you guys as well. So again, links are all down below. Again, if you have those questions at all. So again, they are there for you. Now, going a step further of what we're looking at in society of equities. Again, we'll start with semiconductors. We'll work our way down. Now, Micron, I mentioned this. Now, before we go any further, this is a sponsored segment of the video. If you have any questions, comment down below. I own zero shares of this company. I'm just giving you awareness about what they do, how they do it, et cetera. Ticker symbol is ZONE. Very cheap. It is a volatile name. So keep your head on a swivel. That being said, we've covered them on the channel before. A little bit about what they do. Basically, they're not a Neocloud name, but they own and they operate the sites for tenants. So basically, Cerebris is deciding to deal with them as well, potentially down the line. Now, again, this is like the Oracle situation where it's RPOs. So it's not like they're getting the cash today, but it's potentially worth over $800 million. Very important to know that. On top of this, the CEO of ZONE just bought back, I think like $1.3, $1.2 million of shares. So important to realize that as well. So again, the link is going to be down below if you want to track that. But again, going into the ticker of where you're at, you're getting absolutely slammed, making lower highs. Again, what you would want to see here, and you can see you're getting an uptick after that CEO news came out. In my opinion, what you'd want to see is can you get back above locally 0.25? You get above that, you have room towards 16, maybe even higher. What you really would like to see is obviously above 16 cents, and you can start really ripping back to the upside. But again, be very careful. You have to break structure. It looks pretty daunting where we're at right now. But again, the biggest news right now is regarding what's going on with that deal with Cerebris. And again, Cerebris is getting hammered right now with all some of that news. But again, with the AI craze of everything going on, we've seen what's happened with some of these companies, especially when they get big deals. Let's get back to the video on Twitter as well. If you don't follow, I recommend doing so, you know, your own business. But again, below that low of day PDL, we were looking down towards ultimately the $891 to $900 range, which you have all these wicks down here. Now, what we said on Micron was very key is once you started getting below the 100 of May, things really could get ugly really fast. And they're doing just that almost a 10% drop over the next two days from there. Now, the other side of this too is S&DK. And I think right now, something that I've said on Twitter today was when you're seeing aggressive downside, I do think that's when you have to get aggressive on the side of, you know, buying dips or trying to find opportunity in the market 110%. Okay. I want to make that really clear. So this is ultimately the time when you're looking to buy stock. Okay. I'm not always really looking to buy stock when we're going straight up or we're just going vertical or only finding buying. I like buying when we're dipping. Like a name specifically I like right now is Robinhood. I bought some at the 100 of May. I'm fine that we're below it. I'll buy more near the 200. I'll buy more lower. I don't care. I like the stock. Okay. So something to think about here, but the mentality that I would say going into this is not that you're going into these names with full aggression and you're saying, okay, I want to buy really risky names. In my opinion, when the market is scary or you're getting some downs like this, I think you want to buy names that you're comfortable holding no matter what. So you're buying more safe. I don't want to say safe, but in theory, you're buying a safer name. So if I look at memory as a whole and I look at all these names like S and DK and I look at WDC and I look at maybe SK Hynix, et cetera. I look at all these names, right? STX. It doesn't matter. I personally believe Micron is the best overall name as a company. I think they're the best HBMs. I think they're going to go the furthest. I like them the most. Okay. I think the most insulated, protected, et cetera. I think they compare something to like Nvidia. Okay. So if I'm looking here, that's my mentality or you're going into ETF, whatever you want to do there. That's my mentality. So for some people like, well, Tyler, do you think I should be buying Nebius? Okay. Do you think I should be buying a core weave? It's right back down at, you know, getting crushed at $65. You know, this is, I'm just, I'm not going to tell you what to buy, but I'm telling you my mentality. Okay. As of recent, I haven't been buying Neocloud names because you're making lower highs nonstop. So I'm just not super interested. I've been buying names like Google. Okay. If I want to get a little risky, I'm not going into core weave right now. I've been buying names like Oracle, but I'm only buying Oracle if it's below 130, like closer to 122 to 120. I'm not interested in buying it higher. I will be patient. I will wait. Why? Because these names I'm okay holding. They're for my longterm. They're not for short term. I'm not going to make enough, a bunch of money over the next month. I'm buying these names, holding them, sitting on them, waiting for an actual move because I believe in the company. Okay. If I'm looking to buy, um, you know, like I said, Neocloud names, I might, or want to go into a hyperscaler. Okay. I might just buy Amazon and Google over buying a name. Like for instance, Oracle, if I want less risk, if I'm less risk tolerant towards those positions. Okay. If I want to buy a name in tech, I might want to say, okay, well, I might want to go with a name like meta when it starts dipping back down. I might not want to buy it up here. I might want to wait till it gets back down to 691 and have an overall plan of what I'm looking for. If I'm looking to go into the name inside of software, I might not say, okay, well, I'm only going to be looking to buy a name like Figma at Lowe's. Or I'm like, I think in software right now, the riskiest names are names in advertising, like a trade debt or the trade desk, or, um, I could go, there's a bunch of, I think Apple ovens, another one too. Uh, there's a bunch. Okay. But I don't want to buy those riskier names. I would buy the names I believe have less risk involved or attached, which I think are names that directly will benefit from AI down the line. So along those lines, I would say a name like service now is a name that I'd want to buy once again, if it starts to come back down, um, or name like snowflake, if it starts to come back down near the hundred of May, I'm a big fan or data dog. I'd want to buy these names when they're coming back down to the hundred of May. I'm not looking to buy at highs, but I have a plan of where I'm looking to buy these names down the line or cyber security, another big area in the market that I really, really like. But again, I'm not looking to buy crowd strike at all time highs. I'm going to be looking closer to the hundred, maybe down to the 200. I might not enter all my position at once, but the whole point of this is I'm game planning for all this right now. I am not going to just wake up tomorrow morning and be blind looking at this. I have specific equities. I want to buy specific reasons why I want to buy them and specific levels where I want to buy them. That's the mentality here. So I want to make sure that's really clear when people are looking at this from this type of a market, because yeah, we're getting downside, but I will say, and just like I said, back in July, just like I said, back in March, right? That's where you make your money is when the market dips like this. This is where you actually make money. Okay. If you're day trading up and down, up and down, yes, I'll make some dollars here and there, but this is where the real gains start to happen. Okay. I want to show you guys someone from discord. Again, this is not a flex from me. This is a flex on him because he had the balls and the stones to hold. Okay. So this is Julian from discord. Okay. He held and bought Microsoft leaps with us. Now I will say I was buying leaps a little early. Okay. So there was some draw down this whole move down. We were buying leaps. Okay. And he ended up buying some as well down like a three eighties, give or take. Now that position, look at the expiration. January, 2028 is his expiration. Those contracts went up over 240, 250%, probably more at highs. Okay. Again, that is a leap. That is a long-term position. That is not short-term, but look what he had to do. He had to buy in the fear. Very important to realize that now, again, could he have lost some money on that? A hundred percent, he could have lost money. A thousand percent, he could have lost money. I'm not saying he couldn't have. However, that's where you make the real gains. Okay. And it's actually holding a position. It's actually having a long-term thesis and knowing what you're trying to invest in and ultimately what you're trying to accomplish. Julian had a plan. Julian had a goal. Julian knew what he wanted to buy and where he wanted to buy it and what and why he wanted to buy it. So those are the things that really goes into this. And again, I know a lot of my videos, I'm going more into short-term setups and things like that. But I think this is one of the most important parts of actually trading is the investing part because this is where you actually make money. Do what you got to do. Formulate your plans. I'll be live tomorrow morning, bright and early. Again, see you guys in the next video.