Israel is losing US support - even among Republicans

[0:00] Hey there, I'm Harry Enten, [0:01] and today we are running all the numbers [0:02] on Israel's U.S. popularity problem. [0:05] Israel is losing support here in the United States, [0:08] even amongst Republicans. [0:09] Take a look at this data. [0:11] Take a look at this data amongst young Republicans. [0:13] Look at this massive shift [0:15] that we have had over just the last four years. [0:17] The net favorability of Israel [0:19] among Republicans under the age of 50. [0:21] You go back to 2022, two thumbs up. [0:24] Two thumbs up for Israel amongst young Republicans. [0:26] But by 2025, look at this. [0:28] Already a 30-point shift away. [0:30] Their net favorability down to minus two. [0:32] Today, look at this, minus 16 points. [0:35] That's an over 40-point shift [0:38] in just one, two, three, four years' time [0:42] away from Israel amongst young Republicans. [0:45] But that's not the only part of the Republican base [0:47] where Israel is struggling. [0:49] How about amongst moderate or liberal Republicans? [0:52] They make up about a third of the Republican base [0:54] at this point in time. [0:56] The net favorability of Israel [0:57] with moderate liberal Republicans back in 2022. [1:01] Again, two thumbs up. [1:02] You'll notice I do a lot of Siskel and Ebert references. [1:04] I just really like them. [1:05] At plus 26 points. [1:07] Today, again, negative territory. [1:11] Minus nine points. [1:12] That's a 35-point shift in just four years' time [1:16] with moderate liberal Republicans [1:18] shifting away from Israel. [1:20] And this, to me, gives you a good indication of why, why one of the more ardent critics [1:27] of Israel within the Republican Party is actually, at this point, favored to win a competitive primary. [1:34] You may know him. [1:36] Thomas Massey, he, of course, is the representative from Kentucky's fourth district. [1:39] He has been opposed by Donald Trump. [1:42] Donald Trump has endorsed his opponent. [1:44] Pro-Israel voices are also opposed. [1:46] Many of them have also opposed Thomas Massey. [1:49] But at this point, look at this. [1:50] His chance of being the Republican nominee, winning that Republican primary in Kentucky's fourth district, [1:55] is actually more likely than not to occur. [1:58] Look at this. [1:59] According to the Calcio prediction market at this point, a 71% chance. [2:03] But here's the thing. [2:05] Again, I'm building blocks here. [2:07] It's not just on the right. [2:09] It's not just amongst Republicans where Israel is losing support amongst the unexpected places. [2:15] How about among younger men? [2:17] Younger men who were a key part of Donald John Trump's coalition back in 2024. [2:23] They have very much shifted away from Israel. [2:25] Look at this. [2:26] Net favorability of Israel among men under the age of 50. [2:29] In 2022, not too bad, but not too hot to trot either at minus three points. [2:34] By 2025, again, down we go. [2:36] Minus 22 points. [2:38] That is just, that is a 19-point shift in just three years' time. [2:42] But it gets even worse. [2:43] Look at this for Israel. [2:44] Minus 47 points. [2:46] That's a 44-point shift away from Israel on the net favorability amongst young men [2:51] who, of course, shifted massively into the Republican column back in 2024, and they have been shifting [2:56] away from Israel over the last four years. [3:00] But here's the thing. [3:01] You want to talk about unexpected? [3:02] Perhaps no number I have seen is more unexpected than this one. [3:06] When we talk about the Democratic base, right, and we talk about them being against Israel, [3:11] that's been true amongst liberal and very little liberal Democrats for a decent period of time. [3:16] But now we're even seeing it among moderate and conservative Democrats. [3:21] Take a look at these numbers. [3:22] I mean, this is a sea change. [3:25] This is a sea change. [3:26] Net favorability of Israel amongst non-liberal Democrats, that is, those who identify as either [3:31] moderate or conservative. [3:32] Back in 2022, Israel was on the plus side of the ledger. [3:36] I'll give it one thumbs up at plus three points. [3:39] Look at this. [3:39] By 2025, minus 30 points. [3:42] That's a 33-point shift in just three years' time. [3:46] You think that's a big shift? [3:47] How about now? [3:49] Look at this. [3:49] It's among moderate conservative Democrats, the net favor of Israel, down into the Sea [3:54] of Galilee at minus 55 points. [3:57] That's a nearly 60-point switcheroo in just four years' time. [4:04] Now why are we seeing these shifts? [4:06] Why are we seeing these shifts amongst Democrats, amongst Republicans, at least certain portions [4:11] of the Republican electorate, and why are we seeing it among younger men who are a big [4:17] part of Trump's coalition? [4:18] It is because it is part of a larger sea change against Israel. [4:22] I mean, just take a look at these overall numbers right now. [4:24] The net favorability of Israel among all adults. [4:27] In 2022, it was plus 13 points. [4:30] I'll give that two thumbs up. [4:32] Look at by 2025, minus eight points. [4:34] That's a 21-point switch in just three years. [4:37] And now, the net favorability of Israel amongst all adults, minus 23 points. [4:42] It's a 36-point change in just four years' time amongst all adults. [4:47] Now, okay, that's part of the reason why that we're seeing these groups within these shifts, [4:51] right? [4:51] A rising tide lifts all boats. [4:53] But it's more than that. [4:55] How about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which of course has been taking center stage [5:00] over the past few years here in America, especially after the October 7th attacks and then Israel's [5:07] response to it? [5:08] Take a look here. [5:09] I mean, this is a change. [5:12] This is a change. [5:13] Who Americans sympathize more with, the Israelis or the Palestinians? [5:17] Back in 2022, before the October 7th attacks, it was the Israelis by 28 points. [5:21] That would even climb into the 40s, 50s, depending on which polling you looked at in terms of who [5:27] Americans sympathize with, the margin very much on the side of Israel. [5:31] But look at where we are now. [5:32] In 2026, Americans sympathize more with the Palestinians by an 11-point margin. [5:39] That is a shift of nearly 40 points in just four years' time. [5:43] And when you compare it to 2023, after the October 7th attacks, we're talking about what? [5:48] A 50, 60-point change? [5:50] My goodness gracious. [5:51] This is the best position that the Palestinians have ever been in, in the minds of the American [5:57] public, the Palestinians making history in terms of who Americans sympathize more with. [6:02] But it is not just the Israelis and the Palestinian conflict in which why we're seeing these shifts [6:08] among all these different groups and overall as well. [6:11] It is because of the man who right now is the prime minister, the longtime prime minister [6:16] of Israel, who's been prime minister at least in parts all the way back to my childhood. [6:21] I mean, I think he was the prime minister when I was like eight or nine. [6:25] That is how long. [6:26] And while I look young, I'm not that young anymore. [6:29] But take a look at B.B. Netanyahu. [6:30] Look at his net favorability rating here in the United States. [6:33] In early 2024, he was on the plus side of the ledger at plus nine points. [6:38] But look now. [6:39] Look now. [6:41] Minus 23 points. [6:42] Again, an over 30-point shift in the wrong direction if you are a fan of B.B. Netanyahu [6:48] here in the United States. [6:50] And among independents, we're talking about that his net favorability rating at this point [6:54] is a minus 35 points in the average poll. [6:59] He is about as popular as Donald Trump is here in the United States. [7:02] And of course, Trump ain't too hot to trot to borrow a phrase that I used earlier on. [7:07] And here's the other thing, which is this is starting to have major electoral ramifications. [7:13] Israel has become a four-letter word in Democratic primaries. [7:18] And one way you can see that is APAC, right? [7:21] APAC, the lobbying group. [7:23] Google searches for APAC in 2026. [7:26] Up like a rocket. [7:27] Up 363% versus last year. [7:30] Reached an all-time high last month. [7:33] You often hear those on the left using APAC against their opponents if they have, in fact, [7:40] taken money from APAC. [7:42] I'm not expecting that to change anytime soon. [7:45] On the left, I think the question is going to be if these young Republican numbers hold, [7:51] and we see this right here, will APAC and Israel possibly become a boogeyman on the right as well? [7:57] We're not really quite sure at this point, given how quickly these numbers have changed. [8:02] Maybe they'll change back the other way in four years' time. [8:04] But the bottom line is this. [8:06] Views on Israel have shifted tremendously in a lot of unexpected places, [8:10] not just on the left wing of the Democratic Party. [8:14] All right, so this was me running all the numbers on Israel's U.S. popularity problem. [8:19] If you have another topic that you want me to cover, [8:21] leave a comment in the comment section, [8:23] and we'll see if we'll do it next time around. [8:25] We'll see you next time. [8:26] We'll see you next time. [8:27] We'll see you next time. [8:27] We'll see you next time. [8:27] We'll see you next time. [8:27] We'll see you next time. [8:28] We'll see you next time. [8:28] We'll see you next time. [8:29] We'll see you next time. [8:30] We'll see you next time. [8:31] We'll see you next time. [8:32] We'll see you next time. [8:33] We'll see you next time. [8:34] We'll see you next time. [8:35] We'll see you next time. [8:36] We'll see you next time. [8:37] We'll see you next time. [8:38] We'll see you next time. [8:39] We'll see you next time. [8:40] We'll see you next time. [8:41] We'll see you next time. [8:42] We'll see you next time. [8:43] We'll see you next time. [8:44] We'll see you next time.