Is MU Stock Leading the STOCK MARKET to ALL TIME HIGHS?!

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: All right, time for a follow-up to the update that I had last week. Today, we'll look at SPY, the triple Qs. I'll give you an update on my favorite trade, and I also want to look at Micron. And this is probably long overdue. Micron has been the market-moving stock of the year, and I do think it has replaced NVIDIA as the market-moving name. So we'll talk about why Micron is moving the market and where Micron is likely going and how that impacts how you should be viewing the indices. And I do think it's important to understand Micron, whether you're trading it or not, because as the market leader, we want to know what it is doing and whether it's leading the way lower or if it's starting to signal the market wants to go higher. Now, last update, I talked about two verses, one where Jesus said nobody gets through the Father except through him. And the second verse was Jesus saying that all authority over heaven and earth has been given to him. So those are very big claims Jesus was making. And today, I want to follow up with this verse from John chapter 10, verse 25 through 30. The Jewish religious leaders at the time were just surrounding Jesus, asking, hey, if you're the Messiah, tell us right now that you're the Messiah. And this is how Jesus responds. Jesus answered, I did tell you, but you do not believe. The works I do in my Father's name testify about me, but you do not believe because you are not my sheep. My sheep listen to my voice. I know them and they follow me. I give them eternal life and they shall never perish. No one will snatch them out of my hand. My Father who has given them to me is greater than all. No one can snatch them out of my Father's hand. I and the Father are one. So the reason this verse is so important is right there in verse 30, Jesus says, I and the Father are one. So Jesus again is claiming to be God and he is claiming to have the same authority over heaven and earth as the Father. And this right here is very important to understand because this verse and many other verses in the Bible do not leave any room for interpretation about who Jesus was. He claims to be the Messiah. He claims to have authority over heaven and earth given to him by the Father. And by definition, that makes him God. And if he is saying these things, there is no room to interpret that Jesus is anybody other than either a crazy person who is absolutely a looney tune, or he was exactly who he said he was and he was God in human form coming down to earth to die for our sins because he loved us. So by definition, if you have any other interpretation of who Jesus was, he is either a looney tune and he was absolutely crazy or he was God in human form and exactly who he said he was. I've heard of other people say that maybe he was just a nice guy and he was a prophet. There is no such thing as a nice guy and a prophet that lies about being God unless they're either actually God or they need to be medicated in an insane asylum. Now the big reason why this claim is so powerful is because as we know when Jesus was crucified that he was resurrected three days later and that proves that he was exactly who he said he was. So that is why Jesus is saying here that you have to believe because he is simply telling them, I did tell you who I am, but you did not believe me. The works I do in my father's name testify about me, but you do not believe because you are not my sheep. So we know from scripture because Jesus is telling us right here that there are going to be people who know who Jesus was and just simply don't believe it. And that is exactly why he is saying my sheep listen to my voice. I know them and they follow me. So if you are already with Jesus and you are following his voice, consider yourself very blessed and chosen because that is exactly what Jesus is saying is that you are his sheep and you are part of his flock and you are going to follow him and that is the greatest gift of life that we could have. But more importantly, if you are on the fence and you are saying, what is this Jesus guy? I want to know more about him. That is right here in Matthew chapter 7 verse 7 through 8. This is the parable of ask, knock, receive that basically says if you seek Jesus and ask to know him, he is going to meet you right where you are and you will find him without a doubt. In this verse, Jesus is saying, ask and it will be given to you. Seek and you will find, knock and the door will be opened to you. For everyone who asks, receives. The one who seeks, finds. And to the one who knocks, the door will be opened. So if you do not know Jesus and you want to know Jesus, the easiest way to find him is simply tell him that you are seeking after him. And I promise you, friend, he will find a way to get through to you and he will reveal himself to you so that you have no doubt in your mind that Jesus was the son of God that came down to earth to die for our sins. And when he was crucified three days later, he rose from the dead, proved that he was exactly who he said he was and then ascended into heaven. And for everybody that believes the gospel that Jesus Christ came down to earth to die for you because he loves you and wants to know you on a personal level, will have eternal life in heaven with Jesus because that is what he promised and he cannot go back on a promise. All you have to do is simply believe that he did exactly what he said he came to do and that he died for you. And when I say you, I am talking about anybody who can hear my voice. There is no exceptions. Jesus took all of the burden onto himself and there is nothing you have to do but simply accept that free gift and believe in it. And then he can come into your heart and start to change you for the better. So that leaves us with John chapter three, verses 16 through 18. For God so loved the world that he gave his one and only son that whoever believes in him shall not perish but have eternal life. For God did not send his son into the world to condemn the world, but to save the world through him. Whoever believes in him is not condemned, but whoever does not believe stands condemned already because they have not believed in the name of God's one and only son. This right here is not a story of condemnation. This is a rescue mission. This is a love story that anybody who wants to receive this free gift of salvation is being rescued from condemnation that we are already in. And that is why I tell you that Jesus was exactly who he said he was or he was the craziest person that ever walked the earth. That is up to you whether or not you want to believe it. But this is the gospel and it is a beautiful story about how God loves us so much that he gave us a way back through him by simply not having to do anything other than to believe that he loved us so much that he already came down to save us. And that is the true gospel and love story of who Jesus was. It is up to you whether or not you want to believe it. All right, now let's start with Spy. And I know a lot of you are going to say, why do you spend so much time talking about Jesus when this is the Socks channel? And my answer is always going to be the same. You guys are coming here for information about the stock market and I know you value this and I know it's important to you. And yes, it is important. This is something we want to get better at and this is a tool we want to utilize to make sure that we are putting our money somewhere where it's growing and it's actually going to help us. But look, nothing is more important than Jesus. If we forget that and we start focusing on money, we're totally missing the point. I'm not saying money is a bad thing. It's where our heart's at and what we're worshiping. But this channel is going to be focused on where our heart is at. If we are making money in the stock market, we should be looking to be generous with that and not just trying to accumulate wealth so that we can brag about how rich we are. Money isn't a bad thing. It's whether or not you are worshiping it. And that is why we are going to stay grounded in scripture and then get into stocks. And this is a free will opportunity of whether or not you want to consume anything that I put out there. Nobody's telling you you have to come back to YouTube and watch my videos. So please save me the complaining. You either want to be here or you don't. I think it's very simple, but nothing is going to change. We are going to continue to read scripture before we get into stocks. And I think we can do both together. And I think it could be a great thing. So on SPY, last time we talked, I talked about this wedge. It did look like we were getting the bull breakout above the 748 level. But right now we're still kind of at the peak of this wedge or the tip of this wedge, however you want to look at it. And the market is getting very tight and getting ready to explode upward or downward from here. And that is why this level is going to be so critical at SPY 748, because as I talked about before, we were either going to get this bull breakout towards the 775 zone and get a brand new all time high, or there was going to be some sort of bear breakdown and we were going to continue lower and break out of the wedge to the downside. And we are getting very close to finding out which one it's going to be, which is exactly why today I want to look at Micron stock, because as the market leader, I do think it's going to tell us a lot about where the indices will move. We saw this with Nvidia, we've seen this with Tesla. Every few years we get a brand new market leader in the stock market, and this year I do believe it is Micron stock. So on SPY, I think it's really just going to be as simple as watching this level right around 748. The real indicator that we're breaking out is the brand new all time high above 760, but 748 is going to give you a better idea about whether or not we're breaking out of this wedge to the upward direction or we're getting the breakdown and starting to go lower. Either is extremely possible, I give it a 50-50 right now because as you'll see on Micron, we don't have a clear direction there yet, but I am giving you a level to pay attention to. So watch by 748, if we can start breaking out above it, I think you should be a lot more bullish. And if we start breaking down below it, and especially breaking down to a new low below 741, that is going to lean more towards a deeper correction before the bull trend resumes. So then let's look at the triple Qs. I told you the most critical level here was right around 706. Since that update, we did break down below it, and now we're testing it again. So in the bearish scenario, we could reject and at least fill these all time high gaps, which means that price has never existed at these levels. And those gaps have a very high fill rate. So this is a real possibility that if the triple Qs reject from 706, that we go down to at least 676. And then if we break down below that, we could start even going down into the 650s and then 640s. Now, if this is a bear trap, expect this to be a very quick flush down below support to scare people out, and then a very impulsive rally to the brand new all time high prices right around 770. This is a real possibility. So I do think it's okay to stay bullish above 706, and then simply just get more risk off if we break down below 706. Could be a little whipsaw around that range. So give yourself plenty of wiggle room with a proper risk tolerance. But 706 is going to be the risk level, I would give myself at least three to 4% around that level to play around because you're looking for these bigger moves, whether the big move is going to be up or down, that is where your reward is. So that leaves you plenty of room for a proper risk reward ratio around the risk level at 706. So 706 is going to be the critical level. And we do have two all time high gaps. And yes, there's even the possibility we fill those gaps and then go higher. So you really need to have a plan right around 706 and right around the gap fills and then pay attention to what price is doing from those levels, whether it's going higher or lower. Okay, so now I want to look at Micron. And as I said earlier, I do think this is the new market leader. And this stock is going to tell us whether or not we are going to see the indices moving higher or lower. And right now you can see that Micron is getting a bull breakout today above this downtrending resistance trend line because Micron is in a full blown correction from the previous all time high. It dropped over 34% and 34% from an all time high is not only a bear market, but that is plenty enough of a correction. If the bull trend is going to resume, it could already have seen the bottom right there in the low eight hundreds and getting ready to go back up above 1000. So to the upside, as long as we can hold above this breakout, which is right above 900, I do think Micron is trying to at least close that gap above 1124. And then, as I said earlier, if this is the market leader and it starts breaking out to new all time highs, which is going to be the break above the 1230s, then you are going to see the indices breaking out to new all time highs and continuing the bull trend through the rest of the summer. Now, if this is going to be a false breakout or sort of a bull trap, then we're going to get a lower high rejection somewhere below this level right around 986, and then at least close this gap to the downside at 780. And then from 780, we either hold there and then continue higher towards the 1124 gap, or we start to break down and come all the way down towards the 660s. So right here on Micron, that critical level is going to be right around 900. You have a very clear breakout and risk level there, with the highest likelihood, because this is a bull market, that this was just a correction before it continues higher. And one of the main reasons I'm saying that for Micron stock is the same analysis I did years ago on Nvidia stock, that the earnings growth is supporting the bull trend. This isn't a highly speculative trade that has nothing backing it. This company is growing its earnings at an incredible rate with incredible profit margins. And yes, there is a bear scenario that that doesn't last, and then it all comes crumbling down. But that is why I give you the very clear risk level at Micron 900. So above 900, I think we're going to at least 1124, and then we'll probably make a brand new all-time high if we continue higher after that. And if we can't hold above 900, you're looking for at least 780 to the downside. And if that doesn't hold, you're looking for the 660s. So very clear upward and downward directions, all stemming around whether or not we're above or below 900. So use that as your critical risk level to set any trades you want to have. But more importantly, even if you're not trading Micron, just understand that this is a market moving name that looks like it wants to go higher. And that alone is a good enough reason to stay optimistically bullish on the indices. And then finally, my favorite trade idea is still Microsoft stock. Last time I talked to you, I said it's looking bullish with higher lows and higher highs as long as it can stay above 393. And as you can see, we've had a lot of bullish price action above 393. So now I just want to see the push higher above 410 and then continue this bull trend towards the 450s and then 470s. And as I said before, longer term, I think you can easily swing this trade into the 500s. And even longer term, I think it's going into the 600s. So it's whether or not you want to hold this trade as a longer term investment, a shorter term trade. You're looking to take profits anywhere between 430 and 458. Longer term, I would swing it to at least 500, if not even longer than that. But again, all of that is a very clear risk level of whether or not we're holding above 393. So set your risk there. As I said, give yourself plenty of wiggle room on your risk. That is your risk level. You should have plenty of tolerance around that because the reward is at such higher prices. All we're looking to do here is get a proper risk reward ratio. And for anybody not sure what that looks like, you just use the risk reward ratio tool. You can put it on your chart right at the buy level, and then you can dial in your risk and reward. And this is going to tell you a good idea of where your risk reward ratio is. For example, here is a 2.57. That is a great risk reward ratio for a swing trade up to 458 and gives you plenty of room to set your risk above the higher low. So make sure you're setting up proper risk reward ratio trades. And Microsoft has the perfect opportunity to do that right here, right around 393. So moving forward, I'm trying to give you more updates. I know I took some time off in the summer. I will try to be a little more frequent with my updates. But again, I really don't want to make a video unless I have something to say. So I'll try to find more things to say and give you a few more updates out there. But at the end of the day, this market is being led by the semiconductors, all based off the AI growth story. And that's either exciting to you or it isn't. It isn't really the most exciting trading year unless you're trading the semiconductors. And that's just me being honest. Maybe you're loving this year. But for me, I think it's more about just accumulating these blue chip names like Microsoft and getting ready for their breakouts and just being very patient and very disciplined, which is very important in trading. So God bless all of you. Thank you all for tuning in. And I will see you in the next episode.