Iran is more ready for democracy than people think, former political prisoner says

[0:00] So who is the U.S. dealing with in Iran and what would be the right deal? My next guest got an [0:06] up-close look to the IRGC when he was a political prisoner in Iran, released as part of the 2015 [0:11] nuclear deal. Joining me now is Kian Tajbakhsh. Professor, good to see you. Thanks for being here. [0:19] Thanks, Will, for inviting me. [0:20] Let's talk about this potential for negotiation and a ceasefire. What are your thoughts? [0:24] Look, the Iranians are masters at negotiation. They know how to buy time. They know how to put [0:34] out feelers. But my view is that the Iranian regime is still trying to buy time and wait to [0:43] see whether President Trump has to pull back because of domestic reasons, and so they stay [0:48] in power. So I wouldn't, you know, I think it's very hard to trust what the Iranian regime is [0:53] asking. [0:54] What is telling President Trump? Of course, I don't know what's happening behind closed doors, [0:58] but, you know, they've done this many times before. [1:01] You told me that it's not only the regime that is watching to see if President Trump [1:06] will change his position on negotiation due to domestic politics, but also the people [1:11] on the streets of Tehran. This question of when will they rise up, this question of when will [1:16] they take to the streets is largely measured by how they feel about the commitment to taking down [1:22] this regime and protecting them. [1:24] So they're literally protecting them when they're on the streets? [1:27] Yes, that's right. It's important for the viewers to understand that when we talk about Iran as a whole, [1:32] we should break it down into three buckets. 20% of the population are supporters of the regime. [1:39] 50% of the population are opposed to the regime and 30% are probably politically passive. [1:46] That 20% are going to fight. They're going to defend the regime for religious reasons, for nationalist reasons. [1:54] And for material self-interest. They've got a good life. They have, you know, their livelihoods [1:59] depend on the regime. That 50% are the people who want to live under a freer Iran, a democratic Iran, [2:06] a pro-Western, pro-U.S. Iran. That 50%, you know, currently they're hunkering at home. [2:13] They're listening to what President Trump has said. Stay at home while the military operation [2:18] is happening and wait until it's over. And then it's up to you to take to the streets. [2:24] But I think currently they are too afraid. The regime is willing to kill them in the streets. [2:31] And so I think I don't see a horizon right now unless the U.S. can guarantee their safety in some way. [2:39] Guarantee is a lot to ask for in a war. [2:41] Yes. [2:42] So what would be the opening and what type of security do you think would compel people onto the streets? [2:47] Well, currently, by all reports, the Israeli government is going beyond their military objectives [2:53] and taking out the repressive apparatus of the regime. I mean, this isn't the external military [3:01] threat that Israel faces. They are hitting Basij and IRGC depots, logistical centers, [3:07] and even checkpoints in the street. And this means that the population are seeing their oppressors, [3:14] as it were, being put on the back foot. This does open a little bit of space, but it's uncertain [3:23] now whether it's enough space for people to come out into the streets. [3:26] And you told me there's some sense that like if thousands and maybe millions take to the street, [3:30] the question is what happens when the Basij comes out with their guns? What happens? Because it just [3:35] happened in January. In January, they literally mowed down the celebrations and the protesters [3:40] in Tehran. So what happens if it happens again? And what kind of cover, even drone cover, [3:45] external cover, could they be hoping for to keep their oppressors at bay? [3:48] Right. Well, I think, you know, those people, that 50 percent who want a freer Iran, [3:53] they are seeing the Israelis at the moment hit these repressive apparatus, the checkpoints, [4:00] the IRGC groups. Now, I think what they're looking for is to see if that ramps up enough to really [4:09] make the repressive apparatus think twice before attacking. If people come out onto the street, [4:15] you can imagine a scenario which apparently a couple of weeks ago this was the case. [4:20] The Israelis had put drones in the air [4:23] to protect the celebrants from the Basij. If this is expanded, and I don't know whether that [4:31] can be expanded, that would create a more opening. Twenty percent, by the way, is still a large [4:37] number of people. But to be clear, and you and I have had this conversation, Iran is not Iraq. [4:42] Persians are not Iraqis. So you do not expect a sectarian conflict civil war at the back end of [4:48] this in Iran? No, I don't. You know, I mean, I think, you know, one can one can hope it won't [4:53] one can fear that it might happen. But in reality, Iran is different from Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan. [5:00] I've written and my research and I and I and I traveled around the country. [5:05] I believe that Iran is more ready for democracy than many people think. The potential is there. [5:10] The institutions are there. The motivation is there. The leaders are there. But they're [5:15] currently being there's a lid on them. If this regime is weakened, I think there is energy to [5:21] to, you know, to have a more democratic [5:23] Iran move. All right. Professor Kian Toshbach, thanks so much for being with us. Thank you so much.