Hungarian election could end Orbán's grip on power and alter Europe's political landscape

[0:00] Hungarians will go to the polls this Sunday in one of the most closely watched elections this year. [0:05] Longtime Prime Minister Viktor Orban, an ally of both President Trump and Russia's Vladimir Putin, [0:11] is facing the most serious challenge to his 16 years in office. [0:15] As Lisa Desjardins tells us, the White House also has a lot riding on Hungary's vote. [0:23] In Hungary this week, a nation on a precipice, between a leader linked to the East... [0:30] Democracy is dying in Europe because Brussels is directly interfering in national elections. [0:35] They openly demand that Hungary should have a pro-Brussels and a pro-Ukrainian government. [0:40] Well, it won't happen, my friends. [0:43] And a challenger promising a turn to the West. [0:47] The Hungarians still see that Hungary's peace and development are guaranteed by the membership of the European Union and NATO. [0:55] Incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orban has led Hungary for 16 years, [0:59] the longest of any serving European Union leader. [1:04] Long touting nationalist conservative policies, promoting, in his own words, [1:08] an illiberal state based on national values, [1:10] from fiscal conservatism, pursuing state control in the economy, [1:15] to crackdowns on immigration, [1:17] and passing anti-LGBTQ laws, banning pride events, and same-sex marriage. [1:22] The legislation... [1:23] Orban has been accused by the European Union and human rights organizations of dismantling democratic institutions, [1:30] from cracking down on free press and restricting content, [1:33] to co-opting ownership of independent media. [1:37] Pro-Orban oligarchs now own 500 media outlets. [1:41] Approximately 80 percent of the nation's media is controlled by Orban's Fidesz party. [1:47] Hungary's new constitution has angered opposition... [1:49] The hard-right party also successfully passed a new constitution in 2011 [1:54] that hands control over the judiciary to a political appointee in the parliamentary majority, [2:00] Orban's Fidesz party. [2:01] In the first year alone, 274 judges and prosecutors were forced into early retirement, [2:08] according to a report by the European Commission. [2:11] The dictator is coming. [2:13] And despite the commission decrying the legislation as illegal under EU law [2:18] and large-scale domestic protests, [2:22] Hungary has since passed war laws limiting the judiciary's power. [2:26] Orban has also maintained an anti-Ukraine stance, [2:29] having vetoed a $103 billion EU loan package, [2:33] after a key pipeline transporting oil from Russia to Hungary and Slovakia [2:37] was bombed in Ukraine in January. [2:39] Ukraine has blamed Russia for the attack. [2:42] But Orban maintains it was Ukraine and Volodymyr Zelensky's government. [2:49] As long as Zelensky does not give us what is ours [2:53] and let through our oil, which we have already paid for, [2:56] until then, we and I will not support any decision in Brussels [3:00] that serves Ukraine's interests. [3:03] Orban has also been criticized for his close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin. [3:08] Bloomberg reported this week that Orban told Putin, in an October phone call, [3:12] I can help in any way. [3:14] There's a story in our Hungarian picture books where a mouse helps a lion. [3:18] I am ready to help immediately. [3:20] But Orban is also a close ally of President Trump. [3:25] Vice President J.D. Vance visited Budapest this week [3:28] in a controversial endorsement before the upcoming election. [3:32] Together, the president of the United States and the prime minister of Hungary [3:34] have been able to do amazing things. [3:36] And we're here because we want to celebrate those amazing things. [3:39] We want to build upon those amazing things. [3:41] And, of course, I want to help as much as I possibly can the prime minister. [3:45] Mr. President, you are on with about 5,000 Hungarian patriots, [3:49] and I think they love you even more than they love Viktor Orban. [3:53] During the event, Vance called Trump. [3:55] I love that Viktor. I'll tell you, he's a fantastic man. [3:58] We've had a tremendous relationship, and he does a job. [4:03] But Orban is facing faltering support, [4:06] and independent opinion polls predict he will lose Sunday. [4:08] To opposition leader Peter Majar, once a member of Orban's party, [4:14] he formed the TSA party in 2024, amidst a Fidesz party corruption scandal. [4:20] Majar has accused Orban of democratic backsliding and collusion with the Russian government, [4:25] while Orban today accused Majar's TSA party of the same. [4:29] Our opponents will stop at nothing to seize power. [4:34] They are colluding with foreign secret services, threatening our followers with violence, [4:39] and calling out election fraud with fabricated accusations. [4:45] Hungary faces an election that could determine its future as a European nation united with the West, [4:51] or as one sliding further toward electoral autocracy. [4:55] For more on the upcoming election in Hungary, we turn to R. Daniel Kellerman, [5:00] associate dean for faculty at Georgetown University's McCourt School of Public Policy. [5:05] He's written extensively about Hungary. [5:08] Now, Hungary is a landlocked country in Central Europe. [5:11] You can see on a map it borders Ukraine, as well as six other nations there, Russia just beyond Ukraine. [5:19] Ten million people live there. [5:21] Why should people pay attention to this particular election? [5:26] Well, I think this election is very important, despite Hungary being a small country, [5:29] because of the role Orban has played within the EU and internationally as a sort of role model for aspiring autocrats, [5:38] that is, leaders who are elected initially in a fair democratic election, [5:43] but then basically use their power to entrench their rule, control the media, the judiciary, [5:48] as you were saying in your segment, and pursue that far-right ideological agenda as well. [5:55] So he's been the sort of role model for that, and if he loses, that is really significant, [6:02] showing that maybe leaders like that run out of road eventually with that model. [6:06] Orban's challenger is a former protege of his. [6:10] How has he been able to gain momentum, and how deep does his break with Orban go? [6:17] Well, the break is fundamental. [6:19] He sort of came out with a Facebook post a while back where he decried corruption, [6:25] high-level corruption, with Orban and associates of his, [6:29] and sort of tried to reveal what was going on with the party leadership, [6:32] and that got a lot of attention, and he became a sort of celebrity instantly because of that. [6:38] And so it's a fundamental break. [6:39] And I think it's important that he came from the ruling party, [6:42] because basically the electorate is pretty conservative, and so he can campaign as a conservative, [6:47] but one who is going to stand up for fighting corruption and repairing relations with the EU [6:52] and distancing the country from this pro-Russia policy. [6:56] Now, the parliament and the system has been shaped by Orban significantly over his time in office. [7:03] In terms of the results, does the margin matter? And explain why it might. [7:06] The margin is crucial because I think the thing we have to understand is this is a kind of soft, [7:13] what they call, electoral autocracy. [7:16] So the votes will be counted tomorrow. [7:18] It won't be just rampant ballot stuffing or something that would happen in Russia. [7:22] But the playing field is tilted because he's rewritten the electoral rules [7:27] and manipulates the system in a lot of ways we could go into detail on. [7:30] But the point is, the opposition needs to win by at least 5 percent to get a majority in this system. [7:36] But it's looking like he's pulling so far ahead [7:39] that Orban won't be able to manipulate things to come out on top. [7:44] Now, President Trump had more to say about this today. [7:46] He posted this message. It was unusual. [7:49] He wrote, my administration stands ready to use the full economic might of the United States [7:53] to strengthen Hungary's economy. [7:56] Why is the White House working so hard for Orban? [7:58] Clearly, the economy is an issue there, too. [8:00] But is this election also a test of Trump's resonance right now? [8:06] Well, Trump's treating it that way by sending Vance there to campaign, [8:09] which all indications are that didn't really help Orban. [8:12] But I think it's important for Trump for a couple of reasons. [8:15] First of all, you may recall that CPAC has held conferences in Hungary. [8:19] They're building these ties. [8:21] And really, it's because I think Trump and some of the MAGA movement see Orban as a role model [8:26] on a miniature scale of what they would like to do to build an enduring hold on power here. [8:31] And so if he's defeated, that's bad for them and for that model. [8:36] And then also, Orban is Trump's closest ally within the EU, [8:40] with a seat in the European Council when key issues are voted on, etc. [8:44] So he loses a crucial ally if Orban's out. [8:48] We talked about what it means for Trump. [8:50] What about other world powers, Russia, China? [8:53] Well, besides his close ties with Trump, let's be clear. [8:58] Orban is a Trojan horse for Putin within the EU. [9:02] There were revelations just a few weeks ago where recordings were released of the Hungarian [9:08] foreign minister calling the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, after EU meetings, [9:14] offering to share with him confidential documents about the negotiations with Ukraine, [9:21] and also offering to coordinate on undermining sanctions on Russia, the EU is trying to do. [9:26] So the Orban government basically works for Putin within the EU. [9:31] And so it would be a big loss for Moscow. [9:34] In the last 30 seconds or so that we have, the last time that Orban lost an election, [9:39] George W. Bush was president in this country. [9:41] It was a long time ago. [9:43] Do we know if Orban would go from power peacefully? [9:50] Well, I don't think he will go easily. [9:53] I wouldn't say he'll resort to violence. [9:55] But I do think that he will not simply say, I lost fair and square, goodbye. [10:00] I think he will challenge the results. [10:02] He's already claimed that the Ukrainians and Zelenskyy are funding this opposition campaign. [10:07] So I think he'll go down fighting. [10:10] Our Daniel Kellerman, thank you so much. [10:12] Thank you.