How Long Is The Recession Going To Last? — Darius Dale — Full Interview

[00:00:00] Speaker 1: uh darius welcome to the show hey julia what's up how are you i'm really excited to talk to you um i it's like something i'm like oh my gosh i'm just it's uh something i've always wanted to do so [00:00:11] Speaker 2: um i appreciate that yeah i get to like before we even get going i think you need to tell joe and john that we're currently running at an all-time high in the employment cost index that's the broadest measure of wage inflation so they might need to have a talk with their brother oh they've [00:00:25] Speaker 1: been trying to unionize i don't know if you've heard about that but yeah they're mad at me now um definitely will all right so um we're closing out the quarter we're closing out the first half of the year obviously like markets have just been a steep decline um worst for the s p about or such a close at the worst since i don't know since 1970 so um but not yeah a long time i would just love to start with like more of like your big picture of where we are in the markets and maybe your outlook ahead [00:00:58] Speaker 2: yeah absolutely so uh you know for those who have been paying attention to the show it's pretty uh pretty straightforward uh so i'll summarize everything at 42 macro we believe that if you use enough data use enough math have enough of a repeatable process you can sort of harness these sort of big macro cycles that tend to drive dispersion within and across asset markets and obviously take advantage of that uh from a portfolio perspective there's sort of you know we've considered there to be four big cycles there's the liquidity cycle so as you know if you think about the fed balance sheet or interest rates is that getting more positive or favorable for asset markets or less favorable clearly we're in a liquidity cycle downturn our views is we're close to let's call it eating five or six on that um you know for those of you who are not americans uh any baseball is played in nine innings so you're probably let's call it two-thirds the way done in terms of liquidity cycle downturn as it relates to the growth cycle which is another important cycle we're probably in inning four or five in the growth cycle downturn it sets it uh significantly uh deepen uh in the coming months um at least according to our forecast uh we're probably in extra innings in the inflation cycle upturn um as evidenced by the most recent uh pc headline pc and and headline cpi or cpi reports that we've gotten in recent weeks and then lastly i think we're probably close to any one or two of the profits cycle downturn when i mean by profits we're talking about corporate profits corporate earnings the things that will drive you know incremental decisions you know going back to your previous discussion about uh you know whether or not companies are spending more money on marketing more money on hiring etc so uh we are not in a favorable place to be speculating uh on the long side of most risk [00:02:35] Speaker 1: assets as a function of those four uh downturns um so i i there's a lot of talk right now about you know are we in a recession i will obviously find out when we get this second quarter gdp print but what is kind of your thought process there and like how do you kind of think about that [00:02:54] Speaker 2: yeah so i see you guys for charts are you able to put them yeah we can pull the charts up um which [00:02:58] Speaker 1: one would you like us to pull up maybe the the first one so model five probability yeah let's pull up the model in model implied probabilities chart if we can yeah so this uh this first so what we're [00:03:08] Speaker 2: trying to do with these charts is identify uh whether or not we are in recession or likely headed to a recession over the medium term and some investable time horizon anything over a year is generally not uh investable from a risk management perspective they're gonna be you know it's you can talk about stuff from europe from now but it's not gonna really matter to markets um so what i'm showing in this um in this top chart the blue line in the upper panel just shows the new york fed that's the federal reserve bank of new york's recession implied probability model uh down at four percent uh four percent probability of having a recession over the next uh 12 months uh one i think that number's wrong but two it's uh significantly lower than where it's typically at on a mean basis heading into recession that number's around 27 so typically right into a new you know recession that number's on average around 27 so uh it tells you a couple things it tells you one um at the onset of recession even the recession probabilities are still generally low so you need to have forward looking indicators to give you a better uh view on that and then number two the red line in the upper panel just shows the uh model i put together just based on a couple of bloomberg models that are anchoring on the tens twos treasury yield curve and the 10-year three-month treasury yield curve uh that recession probability is currently around 25 percent historically it's been on average around 35 percent at the onset of recession so that's much closer to signaling hey look we might actually be in recession but to me i think the discussion around recession is really coming from the consumer um the second chart i send you is uh consumer confidence yeah we can pull that up too yeah absolutely so uh the chart uh the top upper panel in that chart shows uh the blue line just shows uh conference board's consumer confidence measure that's sort of uh one of the more stickier um autocorrelated consumer confidence measures that we have it tends to be more correlated to the labor cycle than the uh in university of michigan survey which is also why they follow that tends to be more correlated to inflation but the key takeaway on this chart is that historically you've seen consumer confidence breakdown below its trailing three-year average um you're typically in or just about heading into recession and very clearly with the most recent data point we got yesterday i want to say yesterday or two days ago um you know 99 i think we're you know we're now careening well south of the trailing three-year average which takes me to my final chart um consumer expectations um you know this uh this other chart consumer expectations uh sort of breaks into a couple of different indices within that consumer confidence report um again these are these are uh june data points so they're pretty relevant they're pretty fresh um the red line in the top panel just shows the present situation index within that conference board consumer confidence report the blue line shows the the expectations index so how do consumers think about what's likely to happen over the you know medium term and as you can see there's become there's this massive divergence between how consumers think the economy is today how they feel about the economy today relative to where they think the economy is going to be in the future that's denoted by the spread there down at the bottom panel now that spread and you know minus 80 90 basis points wide to the negative side is about as deeply negative as if it's ever been you know it's in the first percentile uh all the monthly uh um reading since going back to the late 60s when this indicate when these indicators were born so that tells you that you know as you can see where those red bars are in the chart historically speaking when you get to a very deeply negative spread between consumers expectations and how they currently feel about the economy uh you typically are walking into recession because that's typically how it happens right you start feeling bad about the future and therefore you adjust your current spending your current um expenditures etc to how you feel and this is all part of the behavioral dynamic associated with you know economies of financial markets called prospect theory you don't need to get into that now definitely go check out uh danny kahneman's book [00:06:44] Speaker 1: thinking fast and slow if you want more details on that i like that um and it's like like the psychology of it um i guess like a follow-on to that because like i'm looking at your models like is there a way to like assess um you know how severe recession might be like when you're looking at these in indicators like how do you kind of think about like is it like something that's quick and i would love to [00:07:07] Speaker 2: explore that with you yeah so that's a great question julie so there's a couple of ways to do that on an ex-ante basis uh one you could sort of you know the the the easiest way to do that is try to understand kind of the different leverage cycle dynamics the first would be how fast has credit grown into the downturn historically speaking whenever you see a significant positive deviation uh in the in the credit to gdp metric particularly private non-financial sector credit to gdp uh into a downturn that's what we saw in 2007 um you typically get a more deeper nastier kind of asset price led recession that takes longer to recover from uh a second way to uh explore that on x anti basis is looking at the uh looking to observe if you have a positive deviation a significantly positive deviation from the trend in what we call the debt service ratio so that's the total amount of sort of interest payments and amortization um or paying back debt um you know for the broader private non-financial sector and currently speaking neither of those two um indicators are signaling kind of um cause for significant alarm i.e neither are suggesting that we're likely to have a deep lasting prolonged protractor recession which is a good thing now the one thing i'll caveat this by saying you know the data that you know we get this of those we derive those statistics from are released on a pretty severe lag so we're talking about q4 21 statistics and it's obviously the end of the second quarter of 2022 so fast forward six months from now we could be getting statistics for the second quarter of this year that may uh say otherwise but for now um just being data driven we can understand that any recession we are likely to experience over the next 12 months or so uh should be shallow should in my opinion i think it's more likely to resemble the uh 2001 recession which was you know you got to need a magnifying glass to you know kind of really see it on the map it was one it was the shallowest recession in u.s economic history at peak the trough decline and output of minus 70 basis points but guess what that didn't matter to the market smp was cut in half nasdaq was down 80 in the span of that uh you know two and a half year bear market um so you have to be careful not to associate your expected outcomes in financial market terms with your expected outcomes in economic terms the destination doesn't have to be the same but the rate of change is likely to sort of perpetuate [00:09:16] Speaker 1: um and feed upon each other that's interesting you say it like that didn't matter to the market like that also just kind of makes me wonder um like say we find out like in the we get the q2 gdp um number and it's like okay you have two consecutive quarters um of negative um gdp growth like do do you think the market's kind of priced in that scenario or like is there further to go here um what do you think [00:09:41] Speaker 2: yeah great question great question so so i'll start by uh there's two things unpacked there i'll start with the first part of your question which is then two consecutive quarters of negative gdp that would constitute a technical recession by the letter of the law two consecutive quarters of contraction is a technical recession that will not constitute an actual recession by the sort of market and by the federal reserve and certainly by the people who determine whether or not the economy's been in recession which is the mber you know their definition is more along the lines of my definition of recession which is a statistically significant deviation negative deviation from the trend in output um you can measure output obviously through gdp industrial production consumer spending consumer income total employment all those things tend to be correlated to the downside and a significant um deviation from their respective trends um we have not seen that yet however when you go back and you think about from a technical recession standpoint we are certainly developing that one i mean we got the pce day the personal consumptions expenditure data point for the month of may this morning and it was it was pretty bad it was very bad actually uh we talked about that in our macro minute program um check out our youtube channel by the way for those of you who don't pay attention to those but um anyway so on a headline basis so aggregate consumer spending in the economy um which is two thirds of overall gdp you know um you know slow to 0.2 percent on a three-month annualized basis through the month of may and so if we stay around these levels or if it gets you know any worse for the month of june we will have negative consumption growth on a three-month annualized basis on a quarter over quarter basis um in the second quarter um that's being uh dragged down by goods consumption uh which is down 1.4 percent on a three-month annualized basis services consumption is up at one percent but guess what one percent ain't going to cut it one that's half the trend growth rate and number two we're supposed to be in the middle of a services sector boom right i mean how many stories have we heard about you know the pandemic being over getting on airplanes we're going to vacation we're going out to eat you know we're going to the theater etc etc and guess what all that all that that narrative adds up to a mere one percentage point um growth rate um in three-month annualized terms for services consumption so you know we continue to see consumers get squeezed from a real income perspective you know real incomes have been basically trending it down four percent year over year for the last year um on either a aggregate or per capita basis and so you know in our opinion the data is starting to get nasty enough to start pondering the question are we currently in recession are we you know getting close to entering one and i think the the jury the sort of um you know the answer to that question certainly moved in the direction of recession very much in the last kind of two to three hours i think that's why [00:12:14] Speaker 1: like i i love like listening to you because i feel like i always learn things too and you point out yeah like there's been that narrative like oh it's a services boom but as you point out uh probably not the case um as it turns out um i want to ask you about inflation too like you mentioned we got the the pc cc this morning it was it was bad and that's a gauge that the fed does look at like how do you think about inflation like is it systemic is it baiting like i'm just wondering like how you kind of begin [00:12:41] Speaker 2: to assess that yeah so inflation is very much systemic there's a uh several ways we can assess that not the least of which is the data we got from this morning's report uh we saw an acceleration in headline pce inflation on both the three-month annualized and year of year rate of change terms so that was a problem we saw a re-acceleration in three-month annualized terms in core pc which is the fed's preferred inflation metric at 4.1 it's basically a double of where the fed needs it to be so that's a problem from the liquidity perspective of the liquidity cycle but to answer your question specifically on is inflation systemic the answer is unequivocally yes the cleveland fed has a as an index uh called median cpi which measures the median rate of change in inflation terms for everything in the inflation basket there's hundreds you know of indicators in the inflation basket and what we're seeing on a median basis not on a weighted basis on a median basis inflation accelerate to new all-time highs 5.5 on a year of year basis that's a new all-time high in may 6.4 on a three-month annualized basis that's a new all-time high for that time series so to answer your question yes we are very much in a systemic broadening inflation um shock on that ultimately we think the fed is going to [00:13:48] Speaker 1: stick to its guns and do something about let's talk about the fed and um sticking to its guns um j-pal we had comments from j-pal this week um we also heard from christine lagarde we heard from uh boe's andrew bailey like just kind of would love to hear your reaction from what we're hearing from central banks um as it relates to some of these issues yeah so i thought j-pal so was that yesterday [00:14:11] Speaker 2: wednesday yeah the ecb forum uh j-pal uh really stood out to me one in his tone but also he made a very important direct comment uh to financial markets participants and investors you know to everyone in the economy and it was you know it was very basic look we are going to do whatever it takes to get inflation back to our two percent target that process will involve some pain but that it will be a worth that will be less of a pain than just not achieving our objective right so he's basically saying if we allow inflation to stick around here more people particularly people on the low end of the the income coconut spectrum are going to get you know they're already feel like it's a it's a recession for them already by the way you know some some 10 to 20 30 percent of the economy is already in recession just as a function of their income level and so what he's effectively saying is look it's going to be bad no matter what and right now if we allow inflation to continue to fester it's going to be bad for the largest number of people for the longest period of time as opposed to just going you know tightening us into a significant enough slowdown and output to get us to a more balanced supply and demand spectrum that that will ultimately give us better outcomes on the inflation front so i thought that was about as direct as i've ever heard a central banker talk usually sorry i take that back in hawkish terms when they talk usually they're very direct when they're talking about stimulating right because they want to prevent deflation they want asset markets to work they want to revive animal spirits it's very rare that these people talk so directly and frankly when they're actually trying to look for lack of a better term beat asset markets with a wooden stick yeah i've been making this joke that powell's got this aluminum bat he's like a 12 year old at a birthday party with the aluminum bat taking it to the pinata and he doesn't even have a buying photo on so he's just beating the crap out of the pinata until this dang thing breaks i.e inflation he's going to keep beating the pinata yeah all the all the candy is going to be the [00:15:54] Speaker 1: inflation that's a interesting visual um you just mentioned like him being direct like just as a market participant someone who's been in this business for a while like i mean i imagine like your peer group also was feeling similar things like you probably want him to be more direct i'd imagine like do you think that that's the kind of pal we're going to get going forward yeah i mean well so [00:16:19] Speaker 2: and sort of dating myself i found out today i have a bald spot i didn't know that so i guess i have been in this industry for a while for a while too so let's see here or there but yeah so the answer is yes um this is a federal reserve don't forget i made this comment on this program many times for the last you know six nine months that this is a federal reserve that is fighting two wars not one war it's not just inflation they're fighting the war of credibility as well right like they spent all of last year aggressively easing aggressively expanding their balance sheet to the tune of 120 billion dollars of qe per month as inflation was continuing to fester with this sort of narrative that it was going to be transitory one of the worst calls in financial market history let alone one of the worst calls for the central bank so now they're fighting to regain the credibility associated with getting the inflation call so wrong that call that that was so wrong that is currently roiling you know sort of the the budgets of so many millions of american households right now you know if you i everybody watching many of the people watching this show uh you know inflation is a no it's nuisance for a lot of us it's not an i grew up very poor it's not a nuisance when you're poor it is a life-altering event you have to stop consuming you trade down even though you're already at the low end of the trade down spectrum i mean if you're buying bag cereal because you can't afford box cereal now you're no longer buying cereal that's what 8.6 inflation does in this country i'm not [00:17:41] Speaker 1: sure that everyone understands that it's a really important point that you bring up how it affects um like lower income american you just gave that that example like let's explore that further what could be some of the broader consequences of that like what could that mean for like maybe even like [00:17:56] Speaker 2: the social fabric of our country so i mean as you can see it's being clearly reflected in joe biden's uh approval rating on the broader approval rating of congress you know obviously there's a lot going on down there so let's you know we get too far into that but you know it's clearly an issue i mean this is the this is the key takeaway and it's somebody i'm gonna misquote or miss assign the quote but it was one of the most um sort of one of the most interesting things i heard about inflation all year and i apologize for who i'm still in school from i'll remind everyone next thursday but they said and i thought i agree with it and i realized oh my god this is what powell thinks and the quote is when you go into recession you know the unemployment rate backs up two three you know four and four at a bit worse you know four or five hundred basis points so that's you know that percentage of people in an economy are going to have that that that hard time when you have a significant inflation shock 100 of the american citizens are dealing with it right now so we're talking about you know a recession being this big boogeyman that may only impact you know significantly impact you know let's call it three to five percent of the economy as opposed to this inflation which is currently impacting you know you know skimming off the top of rich people who don't even notice you know at least 90 of the economy so i think that's the battle they're fighting and to me it's a it's a much more common sense battle [00:19:15] Speaker 1: yeah um let's see i'm trying to think what's let's kind of pivot a little bit and just bring up some other um topics just because i think it's interesting like i like at the top of this you go over like the indicators that you pay attention to um what are kind of maybe more of the underrated signals that you look to or pay attention to that could be helpful for folks watching uh so i mean you know [00:19:40] Speaker 2: anybody who's subscribed to our work see my work over the years or my career you know there's not any we look at everything i mean if there's a statistic that matters to financial markets or that matters to predicting gdp to predicting cpi to predicting you know eventually inflections in the liquidity cycle then we're analyzing i mean our now cast models have thousands of data points in them from a from a fundamental standpoint our marker regime model has the hundreds no sorry 104 48 data points in it on a daily basis to identify what market regime we're in you know this is you know we run serious models at 42 macros so i i don't want to give your listeners the the sort of the the sense that oh there's one or two things you can look at to do this at a high level because there's not you know it's a full-time job to to to be average at this industry average of what we're trying to get accomplished here and knock on wood we've been a lot better than average this year totally fair enough um and then [00:20:31] Speaker 1: also kind of going back to when you were showing the models um like how the there when you had your first chart how the one was kind of like totally off like what are they missing though in the model like what is what is it that's not in there well so right now you have a pretty uh the number one [00:20:47] Speaker 2: thing that will tell you that we're unlikely to be in two things that'll tell you we're unlikely to be in a recession right now is is corporate profitability historically speaking you've seen sort of a significant decline in corporate profitability during recession so on a trailing 12-month basis that is very much not the case we have some pretty robust earnings growth on a look back basis and then second the uh the yield curve that is typically associated with you know timing recessions which is the 10-year three-month treasury yield curve um that continues to be very well positively sloped you know very wide uh yield curve uh you know very wide you know wide yield curve uh on that measure so that continues to tell investors say hey look if we are going to recession it's it's it's a ways away it's a year away at best if not you know maybe even two years away as a function of that but you know i have the belief that if you get into a significant slowdown in growth which is what our models are forecasting for you know really the better part of the third quarter and really into well into the early part of next year once we start to observe the economic statistics associated with that significant decline in output then you're very much likely to start to see a rally in long end of the treasury curve while the Fed is continuing to hike and that's how you can eventually get that [00:21:55] Speaker 1: inversion perhaps by the end of the year okay um how about in terms of i'm just thinking back to from the beginning of our conversation um that i i guess i i wrote down a couple notes here but you know anything over a year not being investable when you're kind of going over like the big cycle [00:22:12] Speaker 2: so we're in um from an investment it's not that it's not investable it's just the market won't give a damn yeah and when you talk about you know the market's response to the growth cycle the inflation cycle the profit cycle and most importantly the liquidity cycle you when we i mean we've back tested this as well as anybody i've seen i mean certainly we don't have the opportunity to look at everyone's buy side process but certainly i can observe what's happening on the sales side and i think we have some of the best back tests in the world and our back tests show that once you get beyond three months you know in terms of you know look forward markets don't really have any response to those kinds of dynamics right and so if you're talking about like liquidity cycle growth cycle pow inflation growth having an impact on asset markets it's usually within the next few months that the market is trying to you know fill around and price in it's not the next two to three years you know the you know that stuff will happen along the way you know the catalysts are you know drive you higher drive you [00:23:05] Speaker 1: lower along the way that's a good point yeah it's happening um i guess much more i guess closer to where we are uh than than further out um i do want to just ask like maybe um from an investment perspective like i don't know if you could share like like what where would you want to be like right [00:23:24] Speaker 2: now like yeah i mean so uh you know out of respect for our paying subscribers and we're very appreciative of them you know i'm not going to give too specific of advice but you have one thing i'll say um you know just uh something i've been saying in the program all year which is cash is king in an environment like this you don't need when you're in a quick simultaneous liquidity cycle downturn growth cycle downturn and profit cycle downturn you know few things in in the history of asset markets are as negative for risk assets as those things being you know in that state in that condition all at the same time and so you know if you came into the year looking backwards you know we're in a growth cycle upturn liquidity cycle upturn everything it was the liquidity bonanza i mean it wasn't that upturn it was a bonanza some of the most aggressive easing we've ever seen um out of the federal reserve in the history of that institution you know so it's it was you know if you were whatever risk you were running whatever you know capital risk you were running in that environment it needs to be significantly curtailed to risk manage this environment i mean just be just have less risk on this the number one the answer to your question then obviously you know just call we made going back to november last year the higher beta the more volatile the things that go up the most of the markets going up the most tend to go down the most when the market's going down and so we made a call that hey say hey if you have a lot of high beta assets in your portfolio you need to get rid of them because the market is going to sell them and ultimately obviously it continues to sell them to this day yeah um i want to bring [00:24:49] Speaker 1: it up with you just because of like you know the makeup of our audience is just like kind of your views on i don't know if you what your latest is on bitcoin i'm just looking at the price right now it's just under 19 000 so it's 18 930 and some change right now what are your kind of your views just it's i think it's on track it's going to be it's i want to say it's like worst month at least a long time so [00:25:13] Speaker 2: worst quarter since 2011. there you go see yeah yeah so uh so bitcoin i i'm i'm concerned uh i mean i don't want to scare i know this is a bitcoin friendly program i myself am a bitcoiner um but i'm definitely concerned and here's why you know we made a call going back to april that we thought the support support for bitcoin where you would back the truck up and buy it was 19 000. uh i am shocked that we are here so fast i am absolutely shocked that we have gotten down here so quickly and that tells me that if 19 000 doesn't hold i don't know pick up pick a round number 15 000 10 000 i don't know there is no support when would you break 19 000 at least not in terms of our analysis and so you know we talk about this liquidity cycle downturn let's not forget that we're only doing about half the total amount of quantitative tightening that the fed intends to initiate you know in over the course of the medium term so by september we're going to double the pace of quantitative tightening from draining 45 billion of uh 45 billion of of of liquidity out of the market for lack of a better phrase um to 95 billion um that's that's as fat that's like as fast as the fed has ever drained liquidity from the market by a double and so my point i'm bringing up is that when you factor that in you factor in the over capitalization of the treasury as a function of you know the and the t-bill shortage as a result of that and ultimately the the rapidly rising uptake in the fed's reverse rebuild facility balance all these dynamics are ca are sort of combining to drain massive amounts of liquidity from financial markets and so if you do the math on our analysis you know we get to about you know basically you know just i have a trillion dollars of liquidity is going to get drained from financial markets between now and year in if the fed stays on this course and if the dynamics with the reverse repo facility don't materially change if that happens fair value on the s p 500 is 2900 so guess where bitcoin is going to be on a correlation weighted basis if the market declines uh significantly from [00:27:07] Speaker 1: here i'm just looking right now um you said a trillion it's 915 billion to be exact so sorry okay okay i know i'm i i guess like the quick following question too like when you talk about the liquidity cycle downturn you said the top of this program we're in the fifth or sixth inning um does it accelerate over time does it get like as you go through that cycle like how does that kind of how does that play out is it like a smooth thing or does it just like spiral and get worse and worse as you get further in [00:27:37] Speaker 2: the cycle i'd love for it to be smooth but the reality is yeah we get before 30 in the morning every day because it's not smooth it's non-linear markets are you know they're dynamic ecosystems and so the reality is you know one acceleration and one factor can lead to a deceleration another factor and vice versa one thing we know we're going to get is we're very likely to get a a reduction in the size of rate increases particularly as do we get past this july 27 that form c meeting i'm not so sure we're going to get another 75 base point rate hike i mean maybe it's 75 but i think you know by the time we get there it could be 50 if we get a couple of decent inflation prints we get uh june cpi on the 13th maybe we get some uh decline significant decline in crude oil into the summertime potentially i don't know i'm not making that call um that could cause the fed to go to 50 in july 27 but the reality is you know we're not going to stick at 75 75 75 that's unlikely um so you know we're going to see a slowdown in the in the pace of rate hikes but we're at the same time we're going to get an acceleration in the the quantitative tightening program so you know on that generally speaking quantitative tightening has a more of a near-term sort of coincident impact on asset markets qe and qt [00:28:42] Speaker 1: than interest rate hikes and interest rate cuts just like on you mentioned the inflation print do you have like a kind of a number in mind like i don't i don't know if we actually mentioned a specific number [00:28:52] Speaker 2: but what do you kind of think in there for headlines cpi we are at try and pull up our estimates now we're sticking at 8.6 for june or yeah sorry yeah for june yeah so that number will be out on um on july 13th gotcha um any parting thoughts before i let you go yeah um this is this is not the time to be cavalier um i know a lot of folks have um probably this first half of the year has not gone the way they probably hoped and that's okay um you know not everything in life is going to go the way you hope but the most important you know thing you need to make is you need to make a decision determination on what is your next play you know sometimes you give up a sack sometimes you give up a touchdown but at the end of the day the game is not over you have to make a decision on how to regroup refocus your reallocate your focus budget so that you can take advantage of the next series of opportunities and catalysts and markets and if you don't know what those opportunities and catalysts are then come check us out at 42 macro if not just so catch back in next week i love that [00:29:50] Speaker 1: well i was going to ask you where can folks find you online so you mentioned 42 macro uh let yeah [00:29:54] Speaker 2: let folks know where they can find you and learn more yeah so uh come check us out 42 macro.com if you're a serious investor and what i mean by serious investors someone who has legitimate investment objectives you know serious size in terms of their asset allocation in terms of their capital risk um you can be professional you can be not professional with you know both obviously as subscribers and if and obviously if you're either non-serious investor someone who can't afford it college student etc then come follow us on twitter we put out a lot of research on our uh youtube channel as well so you know we definitely have something for everybody but i i definitely think this is the time where if you don't have a legitimate macro process heading into the second half of this year you will struggle that's a guarantee yeah they can also find you on twitter as well we [00:30:36] Speaker 1: just showed you 42 macro details my hand amazing well darrius dale founder and ceo 42 macro i thank you so much for your time and your fascinating um discussion and just also the way you end things with like those parting words of wisdom for everyone really puts things in perspective so thanks again [00:30:52] Speaker 2: of course julia look forward to uh next time cheers