Hormuz opens: What it really means for Iran, oil & US blockade

[0:00] more now with cnn global affairs analyst and iran expert kareem sajapur also with us the former nato [0:06] supreme allied commander retired u.s army general wesley clark to both of you thanks very much for [0:11] joining us and kareem let me start with you on this major news from the iranians announcing that [0:16] the strait of hermuz is in their words completely open it's been a source of leverage for iran for [0:21] some time now uh what do you think does this suggest a peace deal a real peace deal could be [0:26] imminent uh well president trump obviously wants to try to uh end this 47-year conflict with iran [0:36] in several weeks but in my view that's not going to happen you still have the same regime which wants [0:41] the united states as an adversary a more narrow agreement on just the nuclear issue is possible [0:48] but there's no signs that iran is is prepared to change its conduct and on the strait of hormuz [0:54] what they found is that that's an incredible tool of leverage for them they agreed to open it now in [1:00] exchange for israel ceasing its military operations in lebanon but in the future if israel resumes its [1:05] military operations in lebanon they may well try to stop traffic in the strait again what's going to [1:11] happen if hezbollah in lebanon starts firing rockets and missiles towards northern israel which they've [1:17] been doing there are so many saboteurs in this equation not only lebanese hezbollah [1:23] the houthis and yemen shiite militias in iraq and individuals within the iranian revolutionary [1:29] guards who actually want to prolong the war for their own internal expediency i stand by i want to [1:34] bring in general clark general clark in announcing the opening of the strait of hermuz the iranian [1:40] foreign minister said vessels must still transit through what they called a coordinated route laid [1:45] out by iranian authorities is it unusual at all that iran would be determining this well it's absolutely [1:54] unusual it's unprecedented and it's illegal and so um this is an international waterway they have [1:59] no right to do this uh but there still may be mines out there and those mines have to be cleared someone [2:06] has to certify that the mines are cleared uh but but wolf in addition to that uh as kareem was saying [2:13] this situation will never go back to what it was before because uh what's happened is iran has [2:19] exercised a weapon and that weapon is still there it's still like uh an axe uh hanging over uh [2:26] international commerce and and diplomacy in the region uh and they've seen how powerful it is [2:33] uh and i think uh we also have to look at the role of china in this when pakistan's coming in and and [2:39] helping to broker this and convincing the china is behind pakistan the saudis are working with pakistan [2:48] it's a temporary fix yes it should be open it should be open for china because they're the biggest [2:54] beneficiary of it and the iranians know it and they can't keep it closed but but there's been a real [3:01] demonstration of strategic power here by the iranian regime so i just second what kareem has to say [3:08] lots of saboteurs out there lots of potential pitfalls in the future certainly our kareem the u.s [3:15] navy currently has a blockade that went into effect a few days ago on iran in the strait that president [3:22] trump says will remain in full force but uh only as it pertains to iran his words only as it pertains [3:29] to iran how does this impact the country so iran is a country under dire economic straits even before [3:36] this war it was probably the most sanctioned country in the world now it's endured probably tens if not [3:41] over a hundred billion dollars and and damages as a result of the this war and that's one of the [3:47] reasons why there are folks within the government who don't mind prolonging the war because once [3:53] this there is a longer term ceasefire they will face an incredibly aggrieved population no doubt about [4:00] that general clark we're about a day into that 10 day proposed truth between israel and lebanon hours [4:07] after it started though the lebanese army accused israel of violating the ceasefire the conflict [4:12] in lebanon has been a key sticking point in all the negotiations between the u.s and iran is israel [4:19] playing into iran's hands here if in fact it's violating the ceasefire of course it is and uh but [4:27] iran has has never had hezbollah come back and acknowledge the ceasefire so hezbollah is a third [4:33] party left out at any time hezbollah could launch a couple of rockets and you can't take away [4:38] israel's right to defend itself israel has that right and i i know that there are many in israel [4:44] today who are perplexed by this we signed or we're going to get an agreement with lebanon and [4:49] what about hezbollah we were going to get rid of hezbollah they're still there [4:52] what restrictions will emerge on iran's support of hezbollah as we try to wrap this up with a complex [5:00] complete diplomatic agreement and if there are no such restrictions of we're still in the danger zone [5:07] world no doubt about that the danger zone continues general clark thank you very much kareem sajipur [5:13] thank you to you as well well oil prices are trading at their lowest level in five weeks [5:18] following the earlier announcement by the iranian foreign minister let's discuss with richard quest [5:23] cnn business editor at large and anchor of quest means business so richard we're seeing this [5:28] significant drop in prices but as they say in the real world what's changed oh i think quite a lot [5:37] has changed the sentiment has changed uh if you look at the developments over the course of the day [5:43] there is a view that there is more of a willingness to move forward towards peace now i i i get the point [5:51] that you're making what's changed factually of course nothing and that's why although i say the [5:57] willingness and the trend and the mood has changed this fall that we're looking at at the screen is [6:03] entirely justifiable and predictable and it is equally reversible if the trend does not continue [6:13] if the mood movement doesn't change if for example the blockade remains and no oil flows out that's the [6:21] reality here it's going to be a case of wait and see if the ships actually move talk all you like we [6:28] want to see the ships we want to see the ships and you have maersk one of the largest uh shipping [6:34] companies saying that they've noticed iran's announcement on the strait of ormuz and then they go on to [6:38] say the safety of our crew vessels and customers cargo remains our top priority that doesn't signal that [6:45] they are ready to set sail all things being back to normal no and they won't be and they however many ships they've got caught in the upper gulf [6:54] they will remain there but let's just say the iranians start to give exactly those guarantees [7:03] no you can go forward no toll let's just say i'm speculating you can go forward but you've still got [7:08] the americans in the in the arabian gulf outside you've still got them waiting with their blockade [7:14] for to move things forward so and the the price that you're looking at now is predicated on actual real [7:22] oil ships moving if they don't that price will go back up again as for the longer term how much of [7:30] the economic crisis is baked in is the cake actually rising now inflation how much damage has been done [7:38] we don't really know um it'll be a few more weeks before we can quantify that certainly an element of [7:44] damage but the the the better news is that things are looking better now they've got to actually prove it [7:52] yeah and it's pretty clear that the president is wanting this war to come to an end rather quickly [7:59] as well he sees all of these economic numbers um cnn's uh thank you so much really appreciate [8:05] rich request thank you for joining us what are we hearing from the president on all of this he's on [8:09] quite a spree on true social this morning on these big developments betsy yes pamela president [8:17] trump and his team are watching this very closely receiving regular updates from here in las vegas [8:22] where the president is making an economic push but news that the strait of hormuz is reopening very [8:28] welcome and officials are feeling optimistic as these talks are progressing in real time [8:33] president trump reacting in that flurry of social media posts now we are learning according to reporting [8:39] from our colleagues elena trein and kevin lip tech that the trump administration is also considering [8:45] unfreezing 20 billion dollars in iranian assets as part of these negotiations i want to read to you [8:52] from a post the president sent just a few moments ago he says quote the usa will get all nuclear dust [8:58] created by our great b2 bombers no money will exchange hands in any way shape or form of course [9:05] this idea of iran potentially bet potentially benefiting financially from this deal even if no money is [9:12] exchanged could lead to some criticism of president trump who has been critical of similar deals under the [9:18] obama administration but officials are hoping that a broader deal to end this conflict could be [9:25] finalized as soon as this weekend and they are watching those talks between iranian and pakistani [9:31] officials very very closely to see that if a potential second round of talks could take place [9:38] in islamabad as soon as this weekend now there are still some major sticking points and that includes [9:44] how long iran has agreed to pause its iranian enrichment as well as retrieval of iran's nuclear [9:50] material that is what president trump is referring to as nuclear dust but all of this comes after the [9:55] president yesterday announced a 10-day ceasefire between israel and lebanon something that sources [10:00] say really paved the way for these quickly progressing developments as well of as this announcement [10:07] that the strait of hormuz is reopening president trump has said that the strait blockade will remain in full [10:13] force until that deal is complete but we are already seeing oil prices go down the stock market going [10:20] up due to this news it comes as the president is here trying to make that economic pitch and people [10:25] i've talked to are already feeling the crunch from this conflict pamela and wolf all right betsy klein [10:30] thanks for the latest 20 billion dollars for nuclear material has been floated not decided nick [10:34] reference your reporting and i will quote from one proposal includes unfreezing assets in exchange for iran [10:39] turning over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium iran is asked for major sanctions relief [10:43] on freezing of assets north of the 20 billion figure the sources said the discussions are ongoing [10:48] haven't been resolved this is like the crux of everything straight is the linchpin i think from [10:53] an economic perspective but this is the crux of the deal that every president has been going after [10:58] for decades and decades what's your latest sense of things yeah i mean those are the two biggest [11:03] sticking points i think throughout these entire negotiations and as you mentioned the straight one of [11:07] them but i think for now seems more likely to be resolved it's this idea of how long will iran [11:13] actually commit to suspend suspending their enrichment of uranium and then also the idea of going in to [11:20] retrieve uh the enrich having the u.s or perhaps another country uh you know some sort of mediator [11:26] going in to retrieve the uranium that they already have and he just put out a flurry of social media [11:31] posts this morning announcing the u.s would acquire all of iran's quote nuclear dust yeah and that money [11:37] would not be exchanged in negotiations for that nuclear dust as he calls it from the b2 bombers [11:44] but two sources are telling cnn this morning the administration is considering unfreezing 20 [11:48] billion dollars in iranian assets as part of the negotiations really quick i want to play what [11:54] the president said earlier about the obama administration's iran deal and then very [12:00] importantly i terminated barack hussein obama's iran nuclear deal a disaster obama gave them 1.7 [12:08] billion dollars in cash green green cash took it out of banks from virginia d.c [12:16] and maryland all the cash they had flew it by airplanes in an attempt to buy their respect and [12:22] loyalty but it didn't work is it a good idea for the u.s to consider releasing these funds to iran what [12:28] do you think well you know we obviously were very critical of the way president obama handled [12:33] giving cash to iran i think it really depends on the negotiation that president trump uh comes [12:38] through with with them what is what are we getting in exchange what are the security measurements that [12:43] we're going to receive and and have the assurances that they're not going to pursue any sort of nuclear [12:49] capability president trump is a tough negotiator i mean we've been really able to watch him negotiate [12:55] as a general public through the truth social post and and there's days you're like wow and but this [13:02] is the way he negotiates he's a tough negotiator and he gets results including threatening taking [13:06] out an entire civilization well and you know what that was you know one of the things that uh you [13:10] know days as he said they say death to israel death to america and i think we have to take them [13:15] seriously you know and while they are a much smaller country and they don't have the capabilities [13:19] that we do as americans we still have to take it seriously and i think that those were the types of [13:24] words that they understood what those meant i believe that he never intended to do that but he [13:30] was it was simply the rhetoric to put them in a position of he means really he means business bottom [13:36] line is the u.s has long pointed to iran as being a state sponsor of terrorism going back 47 years [13:42] and trump for his part said that this war was initiated to prevent iran from funding that right [13:49] so if the u.s does ultimately unfreeze these assets for iran as part of these negotiations and move the [13:55] blockade away so the oil ports are open does that essentially allow it to continue to be a state [14:00] sponsor of terrorism well i hope not i mean no i was i was born in 1976 and as long as i can remember [14:06] iran has been a state sponsor of terrorism i mean they have killed thousands of americans they continue to [14:11] fund these proxies in the middle east causing disruptions whether it's hamas or hezbollah or [14:16] the houthis and of course all of the instability in syria and iraq iran's always behind it and that's [14:22] why i really truly believe that president trump knows this is the moment that there has to be a [14:27] change in ideology in the government in iran and you know that's going to take some time here but [14:33] i think the hardest part of the work is done and now it's going to be a lot of diplomacy and also [14:38] pressure where the pressure needs to be put in place to push them that direction plus the strait of [14:42] ormuz is declared open by iran while a lebanon israel ceasefire holds britain and france have [14:48] welcomed the announcement but warned that more needs to be done we welcome the announcement that [14:56] was made during our meeting but we need to make sure that that is both lasting and a workable proposal [15:04] and if anything it reinforces the need for the work that we've been doing this afternoon because we're [15:09] very clear that the mission that we're putting together is a defensive mission and that comes [15:17] after a ceasefire the announcement broke as british prime minister keir starmer and french president [15:24] emmanuel macron co-hosted dozens of world leaders on the situation in the strait of ormuz [15:30] cnn's melissa bell is outside the lsa palace in paris for more and melissa i'm serious when i ask this [15:36] question what is the point of this meeting uh for european officials when they don't have a stake in [15:42] any of the decision making here as has been uh as has been seen given the announcement from president [15:48] trump of potentially a deal looming and also that the strait as for now is open this was a meeting [15:58] that was initially proposed by the british and the french but that also attracted a in presence they [16:03] were actually here in paris the italian leader and the german leader but there were some 50 participants [16:08] in it uh many uh remotely they were global organizations but some 30 heads of state or [16:14] government and that's important because it wasn't just europeans what we're talking about are the [16:18] leaders of from latin america through the middle east to the indo-pacific those parts of the world [16:24] that were not belligerent in this case that are not directly involved in the war but have been on the [16:28] front line of its effects of its impacts and so they came together to try and put together and they've [16:33] been talking about this for some weeks this coalition to ensure that navigation can stay open on the [16:38] strait of in the strait of hormones the idea is that they want no blockade they want no tolls [16:44] and they want the end of fighting a ceasefire allowing them to mount this mission with the help [16:49] of uh the ships of france uh the united kingdom germany and italy in order to carry out mine [16:55] sweeping operations now crucially only once a ceasefire has been struck then this announcement [17:00] of the uh lifting on the iranian side of the blockade and all the hope that it has brought [17:05] but what the french president wanted to keep front and center was the need for prudence because we've [17:10] seen so many times before at moments of a glimmer of hope uh disappointment then uh of the face with [17:17] the maximalist demands of the united states the intransigence of the iranians and the continued [17:20] frustration of the rest of the world faced with this the idea here was to try and do something about [17:25] it without uh being in those involved directly in the war this is what the french president had to say [17:30] we demand a total reopening immediately unconditionally by all parties of the strait of [17:40] humus we demand a restoration of the conditions of free navigation that were in place before the war [17:47] so they're feeling uh prudent about their the prospects of peace because of course the complexity [17:55] of the negotiations ahead leaves no doubt to leaders who gather here in europe in paris today [18:00] uh but they are also simply actually looking for a return to the situation before this war began [18:06] biana all right melissa bell in paris for us thank you now i will say from all the conversations i've [18:13] been having today with trump administration officials white house officials they are very optimistic [18:18] that a deal could potentially be finalized as early as this weekend what i am told is that really [18:23] what we are watching play out nick was describing it in tehran with the pakistanis mainly the field [18:28] marshal asim mounir who has been really the lead person talking with top trump administration [18:33] officials and the iranians how that goes today if they can successfully get the iranians to agree to [18:39] a certain number of things that we know they are really pushing for these are two of the biggest ones [18:44] then they believe they could get there now of course we've heard these discussions of potential [18:49] second round of talks i think actually at this point with the trump administration is hoping for again [18:54] this is all you know best case scenario i should say this is not something that is a done deal [18:59] but they're hoping that actually if they you know these top officials wikoff kushner perhaps jd vance [19:05] go to pakistan that it would be more of a formality that it would be signing a potential document [19:10] finalizing a couple last minute things but that really the big discussions are happening in tehran [19:15] today and what's also been so fascinating to me it's almost frustrating because i am trying to report this out [19:20] seeing the president posting repeatedly non-stop you know 11 plus truths today i'm told that's [19:25] really he has been getting constant updates from the pakistanis uh who are in tehran and then he's [19:31] posting about untrue social the thing i would tell our viewers and remind them is that this is his [19:35] interpretation of it and this is one side of the agreement the iranians obviously have a different [19:39] one and so there are still you know gaps that need to be closed but they are in a much more [19:43] confident position than they have been in recent days