HNOW: Ryan Bridge TODAY 11 May 2026

[0:00] the people, which then became, you know, a latticework of eight nations and then subsequently [0:05] migrated. But there's a range of other endeavours which the two countries have been leading [0:12] and partially through very smart public servants, you know, very good people at New Zealand [0:19] Foreign Affairs and obviously the calibre of the people on the Singapore side. Singapore brings to [0:25] the party, I guess, you know, more of an existential threat because it's right next to China. And back [0:32] in the day, Prime Minister Lee used to take businesses from Singapore over the borders further [0:41] up to China just to say, this is the competition coming down the track. If we don't get focused, [0:46] we're going to get crushed. And so the small nation fighting for survival in the world where [0:52] the big players are punching up and also, you know, just turning multilateralism on its [0:58] head. This is crucial. I think these two nations have something to be proud of, frankly. [1:05] Always worth keeping in mind there. Thanks very much for your insights there on trade and [1:08] on politics. That's a Herald commentator, Fran O'Sullivan. Wrapping business with two degrees. [1:14] A solid base is only as solid as it's delivering, as long as it's delivering to the world it's [1:20] operating in. Look, when I heard that from Fonterra's new boss, it really struck a chord [1:25] with me. It sounds hungry and it sounds urgent. He could have said the floor is lava and standing [1:29] still is not an option because our world is changing so rapidly. We get a reminder every [1:34] time we turn on the news. And we've been getting a sharp lesson in supply chain economics from [1:39] the US-Iran war, a jolt to strengthen our alliances while we navigate the constraints. Decarbonising [1:44] our economy, shifting our energy dependence has never seemed more urgent either, so we can't forget [1:49] about the changing climate and the business risks there. And AI seems to set to change [1:53] everything from the value of our investment portfolios to the work we may or may not do. [1:58] So a business that acknowledges the need for fresh thinking to make the most of a solid base [2:02] seems worth watching closely for how it delivers on that. And that holds whether it's in politics [2:09] or in business, big or small. The message is clear. What got you here won't necessarily [2:13] get you there to the next level or even to the next half year result. You can't just farm, [2:17] you have to hunt and the target is moving so you can't stand still either. [2:22] Well that's us. Thanks to our partners Two Degrees Business. Up next, Ryan Bridge today. [2:27] You're working hard to get to where you want to go. Now's the time to have a retirement plan that [2:33] aligns with your goals. Head to milfitasset.com to find out how we can help. Milfit invested in you. [2:42] Do you want a warm, healthy home? Insulate your walls with Insulmax. The easy, cost effective way [2:50] to insulate your walls, usually in just one day. Wall insulation without renovation for older Kiwi [2:56] homes. Fully certified for New Zealand conditions. Join the thousands of Kiwis enjoying a warm, [3:02] dry, energy efficient home with Insulmax retrofit wall insulation. Visit insulmax.co.nz to book your free [3:10] home assessment. We all have a routine to help us get through the week but that doesn't mean it has [3:21] to feel so routine because with My Food Bag you can come home knowing you've always got a yum meal [3:29] to dish up with new recipes to try and plenty of favourites that are simple, healthy and always [3:36] delicious. It's a dinner routine that isn't stuck on repeat. My Food Bag. Dinner done better. For 150 years [3:45] Public Trust has helped generations of New Zealanders with their wills. Make yours today [3:51] and ensure the things that matter go to the people that matter. One Roof Property. Love where you live. [4:11] We just switched to Two Degrees. Well we tested the networks and couldn't see any difference but Two [4:18] Degrees has free Aussie business roaming and they're the fastest growing business network. I can have what [4:27] she's having. G'day, good morning. You're watching Ryan Bridge today. It is Monday the 11th of May on [4:55] the show this hour. Another day, another peace plan for Iran. The fact is these plans are just that. We [5:01] don't yet know when the fighting will stop. We're already hearing reports this morning of British warships [5:08] being threatened in the Strait of Hormuz. We'll speak to a correspondent in Dubai shortly. Hate to say [5:14] I told you so but the coalition government has an 88% chance of re-election according to the Herald's [5:20] New Poll of Polls. Take a look at the numbers this morning. And the Wellington Phoenix women's team [5:25] are history makers becoming the first New Zealand football team to make an A-League Grand Final. [5:30] Can they go all the way and lift the trophy? We'll ask Jason Pine first. Here's Neva. [5:35] Now news powered by Newstalk ZB. A new poll predicts the government will return to office at the election [5:49] and its margin of victory is growing. According to the NZ Herald Motu Research [5:54] poll of polls, the probability of the coalition winning a second term is 88.3%. The model shows [6:02] it's extended its lead over the opposition by two points in the last 12 months. Despite Nationals' [6:09] vote declining, New Zealand First's rise is partly made up for it. It's the opposite for the left bloc, [6:15] with the Green Party and Te Paati Māori shedding votes, meaning Labour's steady rise hasn't translated into [6:22] a polling lead. Deputy Prime Minister David Seymour says he assumes New Zealand First Leader Winston [6:28] Peters sought permission before he released budget sensitive information. The New Zealand First [6:34] Leader told Newstalk ZB on Friday the government's scrapping the free final year of tertiary study in [6:40] this year's budget. Finance Minister Nicola Willis confirmed the move and says she'll have more to say [6:45] in due course. There's no clear picture of how many students without visas are being allowed into New [6:52] Zealand schools. Ministry of Education data show there were at least 520 applications over the past two [6:59] years. The true national total is unclear due to suppressed data. The system applies to school-aged [7:06] children without a legal right to be in the country, but who can still be enrolled under a government policy. [7:14] Megaministry MB sought advice on working from home requirements for public servants facing steep [7:21] petrol prices. MB says it asked for advice given working from home was mentioned in the 2024 [7:28] National Fuel Plan as a voluntary way of reducing demand. The Public Service Commission advised MB [7:34] the move would be unlikely to ease fuel supply or prices. The government's cyber security spending [7:41] increases have shrunk in the past three years. Internal Affairs data released to Newstalk ZB shows 47 [7:48] agencies spent more than $169 million on cyber security last year, just over 2% up on 2024. In the [7:57] years before, spending rose about 22 and 82%. GCSB and NZSIS Minister Chris Pink says each agency prioritises its needs [8:09] and submits budget bids. He says government agencies are working to broaden engagement with the private sector [8:15] to increase cyber resilience with a range of initiatives underway. Repatriation flights have begun for some of the [8:22] passengers evacuated from a Hantavirus-stricken cruise ship. The boat docked in Spain's Canary Islands yesterday. The [8:29] one New Zealander on board is among the last to be evacuated and will board a flight to Australia. [8:40] The Wellington Phoenix will face Melbourne City for the A-League women's football title on Saturday. [8:49] Arsenal remain top of the Premier League after a 1-0 win over West Ham. Tim Price has produced his best [8:55] finish at the badminton horse trials. He's come second on 17-year-old bay galding Falco. Leaders Penrith have [9:03] beaten Canberra 30-18 to close out round 10 of league's NRL. And All Blacks coach Dave Rennie has guided Kobe to the top of the [9:10] regular season in Japan's Rugby League One. It'd be easy to draw comparisons and even parallels between our upcoming election in New Zealand and the local and federal upsets in Australia and the UK at the weekend. [9:23] But New Zealand is a completely different kettle of fish. In part because unlike the Brits and the Aussies we run an MMP system here. The smaller parties that have traditionally been overlooked like One Nation and Reform are doing well because the major parties there have failed on immigration and the economy. [9:29] Our system is designed to allow fewer wasted votes. It's the whole idea. But most importantly mass migration is not the hot button political issue here. That it is in the UK and to a lesser extent Australia where migration and particularly illegal migration is not the hot button political issue here. [9:41] The vast distance that you must travel to get here is our saving grace basically. But our isolation is also a curse in many ways. Our labour productivity, our low income, our low income, our low income, our low income, our low income, our low income. [9:59] I think instructors are. think looking at world history the besti X τιco topics in living is灰嗎 and the future is Buick醜Up Monitor. [10:00] That it?, just not precisely what we are in the future of the UK the last time that cross spiritually. [10:10] But the vast distance that you must travel to get here is our saving grace basically. But our isolation is also a curse in many ways. Our labour productivity, our low population base, our lack of competition in key consumer sectors thinkлиzerry'spat CALNAND [10:17] reach us a relatively pricey place to raise a family. We're an open economy, we are heavily reliant on International Trade. So when there's a Tariff War or International Shipping routes get blocked. [10:24] And when there's a tariff war or international shipping routes get blocked, we are disproportionately [10:29] affected compared to bigger economies with more domestic demand and better buying power. [10:34] A government report looking at our undersea infrastructure cables. [10:38] Power and internet has just been released. [10:40] It shows just how vulnerable we are. [10:42] 90% of our internet goes undersea. [10:44] 99% I should say. [10:46] The Cook Strait power cable provides 30% of the North Island's electricity. [10:51] If the Russians, nor the Chinese, or somebody else tried to cut us off, we'd be in trouble. [10:57] And our isolation makes replacing these things more difficult than others. [11:00] A quarantine or blockade of Taiwan would be the worst-case scenario for our trade flows [11:06] and, as we've talked about on this program for a year now, could happen any time from [11:11] 2027 onwards. [11:12] That's the prediction. [11:14] Our isolation protects us from the threats faced by the UK, America and, to a lesser extent, [11:20] the Aussies, but exposes unique threats that we should seek to guard against. [11:25] Hero now weather. [11:32] Morena. [11:33] Good morning. [11:34] A bit of a chilly start first thing. [11:35] But for most of us, Monday is looking like a dry day. [11:38] Southwesterly winds. [11:39] We'll be keeping it on the cool side this week. [11:40] But I think we are going to find many spots stay dry. [11:43] In the North, though, that lingering feature is starting to come back to this evening. [11:47] Down here in the South, we'll have an odd shower that runs in towards the southern coast, [11:50] very isolated. [11:51] I think most of the time it's a dry story. [11:53] Very cold and frosty first thing through central Otago, but dry and sunny. [11:58] As we head up the coast, we might find an odd shower skirting the likes of Banks Ventura. [12:02] But for most of us, it's fine, dry and sunny after a rather chilly start. [12:07] Again an odd shower perhaps around that Wairapa coast. [12:09] But for most of us, it's a dry looking day. [12:11] Taranaki doing very nicely and across towards Whanganui as well. [12:15] Plenty of clear sky and sunshine. [12:17] An odd shower still with us this morning through the Waira district up in towards the hills [12:20] of Tairafti. [12:22] But that clears away just a little bit of cloud this afternoon and then a fine looking [12:25] story on the other side of the hills to the Bay of Plenty across towards Waikato. [12:30] Now there is that band of wetter weather lingering up towards the north of the Auckland and northern [12:35] coast. [12:36] That arrives back with us as we head through the night time. [12:38] You can see a bit longer spell of rain just across those far northern parts of New Zealand. [12:43] A few showers in the far south. [12:44] But for many of us, it's a dry looking day and Tuesday is looking pretty decent as well. [12:51] Time is nine minutes after seven. [12:52] Some are asking if the Middle East conflict is finally coming to an end. [12:56] Iran says it's replied to a US peace proposal with reports that could lead to negotiations [13:02] on the country's nuclear program. [13:03] Meanwhile, the month old ceasefire is cracking under pressure with drone strikes reported [13:08] across the region. [13:10] Iran is threatening British warships in the Strait of Hormuz, saying they will be met with [13:15] immediate, decisive response if they are perceived to be acting alongside the United [13:19] States. [13:20] The threat followed news that Britain would send one of its destroyers, the HMS Dragon, [13:27] to the region. [13:28] Natasha Turak is Middle East correspondent, joins us live from Dubai. [13:31] Natasha, nice to have you on the program. [13:34] What chances there that this particular peace proposal has any greater confidence or chance [13:41] that it will actually get somewhere as opposed to previous versions? [13:44] Well, Ryan, it's still very difficult to know. [13:48] We don't know yet what the Iranian response to that US proposal has been. [13:52] But based on the last several weeks and just based on the sheer scope of space between the [13:59] demands that each country has, it's hard to see this being really significantly different [14:05] from the outcomes of attempted peace talks that we've seen before, which have been a failure. [14:11] Now this is just a 14 point memorandum, one page long, and the idea is to formally end [14:17] the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz before talks on more contentious issues such as Iran's [14:22] nuclear program begin. [14:23] But as I said, the two countries have quite a lot of space between them in terms of what [14:29] each one wants, even in the immediate term. [14:32] So Iran wants a full and permanent end to the war before it makes any further concessions. [14:37] So that also includes an end to the war in Lebanon. [14:40] The US wants a potential extension of the ceasefire by a month or two. [14:45] And in that time, they want the Strait of Hormuz opened. [14:48] So they say they will unblockade Iran once Iran opens the Strait. [14:53] Iran so far has said, well, we're not doing anything until you unblockade us first. [14:58] So we've had this gridlock for quite some time. [15:01] And President Trump also wants to address that thorny nuclear issue. [15:05] But Iran would prefer to kick that down the road a little bit and leave it till later. [15:09] Because at this point, it's abundantly clear to those of us watching and to the officials [15:15] in Tehran that President Trump doesn't really have the stomach for this war anymore. [15:20] He's kind of trying to extricate himself from the conflict. [15:23] Of course, he's making threats about renewed bombings. [15:26] And he's, you know, continuing to say, oh, we can do what we want if you don't, you know, [15:30] give us what we're asking for. [15:32] But it seems pretty clear that he doesn't actually want to do this. [15:35] And so if Tehran, if Iran knows it is in that position, it is not very likely that it will [15:42] give Washington the concessions that it wants. [15:44] It feels right now like it has quite a bit of leverage. [15:47] Natasha, what about the strikes from Iran into the UAE over the last 24 hours? [15:53] This is the drone strikes. [15:55] Apparently, there was no warning for them this time. [15:58] Yes. [15:58] So UAE's Ministry of Defense said that it intercepted two drones over UAE airspace that [16:05] it says came from Iran. [16:07] Kuwait also reported drone strikes. [16:09] And there was a fire on a cargo ship going from the UAE to Qatar that authorities say came [16:15] from an Iranian strike as well. [16:17] Now, here in Dubai, we didn't hear the missile alert go off suggesting that it the threat [16:22] wasn't directly over Dubai itself as an emirate. [16:26] We don't know if, you know, where where over the Emirate where where over the UAE that intercept [16:34] those interceptions took place. [16:36] But the UAE has once again condemned what it calls Iran's aggression. [16:41] Iran has not commented on the strikes. [16:43] But this follows a few days of strikes from Iran into the UAE that read that started on [16:50] Monday of last week for the first time in almost a month since that shaky ceasefire between [16:57] the U.S. and Iran was agreed on April 8th. [17:00] So while the rest of the region may have benefited, you know, continuously from the ceasefire, the [17:07] UAE remains the sort of first line of where the blowback happens when Iran decides to take [17:13] revenge on something that the U.S. has done. [17:15] So so here things certainly remain on edge, but the government remains vigilant to, you know, [17:22] keep those skies protected from further strikes. [17:26] All right. Interesting stuff. Natasha, thank you. [17:27] Natasha Turak, Middle East correspondent with us in Dubai this morning. [17:31] Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin says the war in Ukraine may be heading to an end. [17:36] Speaking overnight, Putin said he's ready to hold direct talks with the Ukrainian leader [17:40] Volodymyr Zelenskyy in either Moscow or a neutral location. [17:43] Putin's comments come as the U.S. brokered a three-day ceasefire recently, which Russia [17:48] and Ukraine have accused each other of breaking. [17:51] Russia launched the military invasion of Ukraine four years ago. [17:54] At the start of this year, the number of troops killed, wounded or missing was estimated [17:58] to be close to two million on both sides. [18:01] Meanwhile, the first passengers evacuated from the Hantavirus cruise ship have been flown home [18:06] with a French passenger showing symptoms of the virus on their flight. [18:10] The French government has confirmed a citizen on the repatriation flight has begun showing [18:15] symptoms, with officials previously saying no one on board the ship had shown symptoms [18:19] since three people on board the vessel had died. [18:24] The person was among a group of five French nationals who have now gone into an isolation centre. [18:29] Spanish and British nationals have also begun flights home. [18:32] There have been at least nine confirmed or suspected cases of the virus linked to the fatal outbreak [18:38] on the ship. [18:39] The coalition government will return to power up the election based on the latest numbers [18:43] from the NZ Herald Mutu Research Poll of Polls. [18:46] According to the model, there's an 88.3% chance of the coalition winning the next election [18:53] and getting a second term. [18:55] National would have 37 seats, New Zealand first 16 in Act 10. [18:59] Labour would be the largest party in Parliament with 43 seats, but the Greens' 11 seats and [19:04] Te Pate Māori's three seats would not be enough to form a government. [19:08] Thomas Coghlan, the Herald's political editor, is with us this morning. [19:11] Thomas, good morning. [19:12] Good morning, Ryan. [19:14] No great surprise here, I suppose. [19:16] It is a poll of polls, so we can kind of see the polls. [19:19] But this is interesting, the number in particular, 88%. [19:22] Yeah, quite right. [19:24] As you say, it is a poll of polls. [19:25] So the number itself should reflect the polls that we've been seeing, and lo and behold, [19:31] it does. [19:32] I guess the interesting thing there is the fact that the margin between what the coalition [19:36] is likely to get and what the opposition left-wing bloc is likely to get has actually [19:41] been growing. [19:42] The coalition's sort of sitting on about 52%, the opposition's down in the mid-40s. [19:49] That's a margin that's been growing over the last year. [19:51] It seems that the two blocs were at their closest in about May last year, where there [19:55] was just 3.3% separating them. [19:57] What we've been seeing, I think, is national slow decline, and I've been sort of plunging [20:04] towards the 30% mark, and then below the 30% mark in a lot of polls now. [20:08] And what's been saving the coalition? [20:10] Well, it's the rise of New Zealand First. [20:11] So as national sheds votes, New Zealand First is gaining them, winning them, probably off [20:16] national. [20:16] And that is why the coalition's margin of victory is growing. [20:20] It's New Zealand First really coming to the rescue and saving national from its own [20:23] decline. [20:25] I reckon what we'll see from here, as we get closer to the election and people realise [20:29] it will be a coalition re-elected, is you get a bunch of Labour voters who will get in [20:33] behind. [20:34] You know, New Zealand First might leech a few national supporters back to the Blue Party, [20:39] but then you get those Labour voters going, oh, well, I better take out my Winston insurance [20:43] policy. [20:45] Yes, I wonder whether you will see a bit of that. [20:47] But, you know, national and act are running on superannuation reform. [20:52] They're also quite likely, they haven't, national hasn't announced it yet, but national seems [20:56] to be gearing up to run on asset sales and asset sales policy. [21:01] New Zealand First is likely to run on blocking those policies. [21:04] They're pretty clear that they don't like asset sales and they've been explicit that [21:07] there are no changes to the superannuation age coming under New Zealand First. [21:10] So, yes, if you're a Labour voter looking at those numbers, on these numbers, Labour is [21:16] about where it was on election night 2017, which was quite a, or the 2017 election, quite [21:22] a disappointing result for them because Labour plus the Greens just doesn't really get you [21:27] anywhere. [21:27] And even when you add to Party Māori in there, it's just, it is not enough. [21:31] So you're right, there is a chance that some people come over to New Zealand First to just [21:35] try and kneecap some of national and acts more right-wing tendencies that perhaps those [21:42] Labour swing voters don't like. [21:44] The other thing is, you know, we've talked about this before, Thomas, but coalition likely [21:49] to get back in. [21:50] It's the composition of that coalition, right? [21:52] Then this is what you're alluding to as well. [21:54] Do you think there's still a live possibility that Luxon gets rolled pre-election? [22:00] I mean, just to try and, not saying that they're not, that they're going to lose the election, [22:05] therefore get rid of Luxon, but that you want national to do better within that composition [22:09] of the government. [22:11] Yes, I think national is going to lose so many MPs on all the polls at the moment. [22:16] As long as national is below 30% of the polls, there's always going to be a possibility that [22:22] the next poll or the next Christopher Luxon sort of gif, as it were, would potentially [22:28] trigger a leadership contest. [22:32] Below 30% is so low for the national party and government. [22:35] You have to consider that there is a possibility of change as long as they are below 30%. [22:42] To be honest, a year ago, I think most people would have said below 35% is where there's [22:48] a possibility of national changing its leadership, but now they seem to have acclimatized themselves [22:53] to being below 35%. [22:54] And I'd say so long as they remain below 30%, there is a chance that the next problem will [23:02] trigger a leadership contest. [23:04] Thomas Coghlan, the Herald's political editor, good to see you this morning. [23:08] Thank you. [23:09] It is 7.20, time for a quick break. [23:11] Stop paying the waiting tax. 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[25:17] Then pick the best leaves by hand, not machine, and pack it right here in Sri Lanka. [25:23] But it's not just the taste that makes our tea better. [25:27] Fifteen percent of our profit goes to humanity, and to the elephants. [25:32] As my grandfather said, do try it. [25:40] Welcome back. [25:40] It is 22 minutes after seven. [25:42] Starmer could lose his job as Prime Minister in the UK in the next 24 hours. [25:46] Labour lost 1,500 seats at local elections over the weekend. [25:50] Reform, that's for Raj, and the Greens did very well. [25:53] It's very important that we do reflect on what was a tough set of results. [25:58] But I'm not going to walk away and plunge the country into chaos. [26:01] I think the right thing to do is to rebuild and show the path forward. [26:08] We did make a number of really important calls in the last couple of years about stabilising [26:13] the economy, investing in our public services, not getting drawn into the war in Iran. [26:20] Catherine West, a backbencher you've never heard of. [26:22] We call her a nobody in politics. [26:23] She's come out and said she wants a vote. [26:26] 80 MPs needed to force one. [26:28] We're streeting. [26:28] He's the health secretary. [26:30] He is apparently warming his engines. [26:32] And Andy Burnham in the north, king of the north they call him, doesn't have a seat, [26:36] but could be a contender should somebody slip him a seat through a by-election. [26:41] As for reform, this is for Raj. [26:43] Well, they're doing well. [26:45] And if these results could be replicated in a general election in a couple of years, [26:49] he's got a serious shot at becoming the next Prime Minister of Britain. [26:52] What is most interesting about it, if you look at the numbers, and we saw it beginning [26:56] last night, you see Labour down 35%, reform up 39%. [27:02] There is a massive direct switch in this part of the country. [27:07] My firm belief is that those voters who have come to us are not doing it as a short-term [27:13] protest. [27:13] They're doing it because they actually believe in us, and they will stick with us between [27:17] now and the next general elections. [27:24] Philip Cowley, Queen Mary University of London British School of Politics and International [27:28] Relations professor, joins us live this morning. [27:31] Good morning. [27:32] Good morning. [27:33] Nice to have you on the show. [27:34] So, what's your prediction for the Prime Minister in the next few days? [27:39] Well, I think probably in the next few days he'll be okay, but I don't think many people [27:45] think he's going to be leading the Labour Party into the next general election. [27:50] The problem, and you sort of hinted at it in your introduction there, is just how you [27:56] get him out in the next few days. [27:58] I mean, Catherine West is not going to become the next Prime Minister. [28:02] She's running purely to see if she can attract nominations from people, to force them. [28:08] You've got a chance here. [28:09] If you back me, we might be there. [28:10] Not to actually get her in, but to say, look, let's build up a head of steam, and then someone [28:15] more senior can come in behind me if we can show that there's real dissatisfaction. [28:20] But I'm not sure that's going to work. [28:21] And I think in the very short term, he's fine. [28:25] But these were pretty catastrophic results for the Labour Party. [28:29] They're the sort of results that make a lot of Labour MPs, probably the majority, look at [28:33] their own seats and think, if we carry on like this, we are toast. [28:36] Yeah, absolutely. [28:38] And what about the getting Burnham in, the King of the North, and that's going to require [28:43] a by- I mean, all of that stuff takes time, right? [28:46] Well, it's not just that it takes time. [28:47] There's no guarantee he wins a by-election at the moment. [28:50] I mean, this is all based on the assumption that a Labour MP will stand aside. [28:54] Andy Burnham will run in the seat. [28:57] The cheering masses will sort of bring him in to Westminster, and then he leaves Labour [29:02] triumphantly. [29:03] Even that very first bit could easily go wrong. [29:06] There is absolutely no guarantee, even if he found a seat, that he'd win it in a by-election [29:10] in the current climate. [29:13] And I think the problem for Andy Burnham is that he's very popular at the moment as Mayor [29:18] of Manchester. [29:19] I'm not entirely convinced, and I'm not sure, there's quite a few Labour MPs, I think, share [29:24] this scepticism, that he'd be as popular as Prime Minister. [29:29] This is the problem, isn't it, for Labour, that they're talking about other leaders. [29:34] But, you know, if Angela Rayner was in charge right now, would Labour be performing any better [29:39] in these elections? [29:40] If West Streeting was in charge right now, would they be performing, who, from what I can [29:44] see as a career politician through and through, any better than Starmer would? [29:48] So I think there's two issues here. [29:50] I mean, and they get mixed up. [29:52] I mean, one is the policy direction of the government and the extent, you know, do they [29:58] shift a little bit to the left or not? [30:02] How do they fight off this very difficult twin pressure from reform, which is taking some [30:08] votes off Labour, and the Greens, who are taking more votes off Labour? [30:14] And of course, those require you to go in different directions, which is very difficult for any [30:19] party at the best of times. [30:20] So there's a policy question. [30:22] And then there's the personality question. [30:24] I mean, part of Keir Starmer's problem, if I can be polite, is that he is not especially [30:30] charismatic and he doesn't infuse the population at all. [30:37] In fact, it's become quite clear in the last year or so that there's a real level of vehemence [30:42] against Keir Starmer as an individual, maybe above and beyond what you would expect, given [30:48] the sort of decisions the government has taken. [30:50] So you get in some new people, but it is not clear that either the person or the policy direction [30:56] will necessarily help Labour. [30:59] Philip, nice to have you on the programme this morning. [31:01] Philip Cowley, International Relations Professor at Queen Mary University of London. [31:05] Time is 27 after 7. We're back right after this break. [31:08] We have completed four builds with GJ. [31:10] Every time we want to think of building, we always go back to GJ. [31:13] It's a really good experience throughout the whole process. [31:16] They deliver what they promise on. [31:18] It feels like working with a family member. [31:20] It's very easy and trustworthy to work with GJ. [31:23] Do you want a warm, healthy home? [31:27] Insulate your walls with Insulmax. [31:29] The easy, cost-effective way to insulate your walls, usually in just one day. [31:34] Wall insulation without renovation for older Kiwi homes. [31:38] Fully certified for New Zealand conditions. [31:41] Join the thousands of Kiwis enjoying a warm, dry, energy-efficient home [31:45] with Insulmax retrofit wall insulation. [31:48] Visit insulmax.co.nz to book your free home assessment. [31:52] It's a grain. It's Mollenberg. Keep me going! [32:37] Oh, here she is. How's the business going? [32:40] Good, actually. We just switched to Two Degrees. [32:44] Well, we tested the networks and couldn't see any difference. [32:47] But Two Degrees has free Aussie business roaming. [32:50] With Flex, we get instant control of phone plans, data usage, and cost-centre reporting. [32:56] And they're the fastest-growing business network. [32:58] Can I have what she's having? [33:04] The Wellington Phoenix women's team has made New Zealand football history. [33:11] They've beat Brisbane Roar 2-0 at Porirua Park in the second leg of their semi-final [33:16] to claim a 3-2 win on aggregate and qualify for the A-leg grand final. [33:20] They're the first New Zealand team to do so, men or women. [33:24] They will now play Melbourne City in Melbourne on Saturday night in a one-off grand final. [33:29] Jason Pyne, Newstalk CB Weekend Sports host, is with us this morning. [33:32] Jason, fantastic result. [33:35] Yeah, absolutely, Ryan. [33:36] Yeah, what a way to start a new week with a team in a grand final, as you say. [33:40] No New Zealand team, male or female, has ever made it through to the A-League grand final. [33:45] They had to come from behind yesterday at Porirua Park. [33:48] It's a two-legged affair. [33:49] So they were 2-1 down after the first leg. [33:52] They scored a goal late in the first half to square it all up. [33:56] Had a really good opportunity to win it in normal time. [33:59] Couldn't do that. [34:00] Went to extra time and Michaela Woods, the American import, scoring the winning goal in extra time. [34:07] So, yeah, it's an historic achievement. [34:10] And when you consider that the Wellington Phoenix women have never even made the playoffs before [34:15] and now they're going to be playing in a grand final, [34:17] it is a significant occasion for the football club and for the game of football, [34:22] particularly the women's game here in New Zealand. [34:24] Do you think they can win the final? [34:26] Yeah, absolutely. [34:27] One-off game. [34:27] Melbourne City are favourite, without a doubt. [34:29] They finish top in the regular season. [34:32] They'll host the grand final. [34:34] Wellington haven't beaten them in the two encounters this season. [34:37] A couple of narrow losses. [34:39] But it feels to me as though form goes out the window in a grand final in a one-off match. [34:44] There are any number of examples of underdogs, you know, getting the job done in a grand final. [34:50] Bev Priestman, the coach, will absolutely have the team up for this. [34:54] So, yeah, I don't think there's any suggestion that this will be anything other than a really hard-fought contest on Saturday. [35:01] Nice on. [35:02] Newstalk ZB weekend sports host Jason Pyne with us live. [35:05] Time is half seven. [35:06] Here's Neva. [35:06] A new poll predicts the government will return to office at the election and its margin of victory is growing. [35:23] According to the NZ Herald Motu Research Poll of Polls, the probability of the coalition winning a second term is 88.3%. [35:32] The model shows it's extended its lead over the opposition by two points in the last 12 months. [35:38] Despite Nationals' vote declining, New Zealand First's rise is partly made up for it. [35:44] It's the opposite for the left bloc, with the Green Party and Te Parti Māori shedding votes, [35:50] meaning Labour's steady rise hasn't translated into a polling lead. [35:55] Deputy Prime Minister David Seymour says he assumes New Zealand First leader Winston Peters sought permission [36:00] before he released budget-sensitive information. [36:04] The New Zealand First leader told Newstalk ZB on Friday the government's scrapping the free final year of tertiary study in this year's budget. [36:12] Finance Minister Nicola Willis confirmed the move and says she'll have more to say in due course. [36:18] There's no clear picture of how many students without visas are being allowed into New Zealand schools. [36:24] Ministry of Education data show there were at least 520 applications over the past two years. [36:30] The true national total is unclear due to suppressed data. [36:35] The system applies to school-aged children without a legal right to be in the country, [36:40] but who can still be enrolled under a government policy. [36:45] Mega Ministry MB sought advice on working-from-home requirements for public servants facing steep petrol prices. [36:53] MB says it asked for advice, given working-from-home was mentioned in the 2024 National Fuel Plan, [37:00] as a voluntary way of reducing demand. [37:03] The Public Service Commission advised MB the move would be unlikely to ease fuel supply or prices. [37:10] The government's cybersecurity spending increases have shrunk in the past three years. [37:15] Internal affairs data released to Newstalk ZB shows 47 agencies spent more than $169 million on cybersecurity last year, [37:24] just over 2% up on 2024. [37:26] In the years before, spending rose about 22% and 82%. [37:33] GCSB and NZSIS Minister Chris Pink says each agency prioritises its needs and submits budget bids. [37:42] He says government agencies are working to broaden engagement with the private sector [37:46] to increase cyber resilience with a range of initiatives underway. [37:50] Repatriation flights have begun for some of the passengers evacuated from a Hantavirus-stricken cruise ship. [37:57] The boat docked in Spain's Canary Islands yesterday. [38:00] The one New Zealander on board is among the last to be evacuated and will board a flight to Australia. [38:10] Herald Now Sport [38:11] The Wellington Phoenix will face Melbourne City for the A-League women's football title on Saturday. [38:20] Arsenal remain top of the Premier League after a 1-0 win over West Ham. [38:24] Tim Price has produced his best finish at the badminton horse trials. [38:29] He's come second on 17-year-old bay gilding Falco. [38:33] Leaders Penrith have beaten Canberra 30-18 to close out Round 10 of league's NRL. [38:40] And All Blacks coach Dave Rennie has guided Kobe to the top of the regular season in Japan's Rugby League One. [38:45] Morena, good morning. A bit of a chilly start first thing, but for most of us Monday is looking like a dry day. [38:59] Southwesterly winds will be keeping it on the cool side this week, but I think we are going to find many spots stay dry. [39:04] In the north though, that lingering feature is starting to come back to this evening. [39:07] Down here in the south we'll have an odd shower that runs in towards the southern coast, but very isolated. [39:12] I think most of the time it's a dry story. Very cold and frosty first thing through central Otago, but dry and sunny. [39:19] As we head up the coast, we might find an odd shower skirting the likes of Banks Finisher, but for most of us it's fine, dry and sunny after a rather chilly start. [39:27] Again, an odd shower perhaps around that Wairapa coast, but for most of us it's a dry looking day. [39:32] Taranaki doing very nicely and across towards Whanganui as well. Plenty of clear sky and sunshine. [39:37] An odd shower still with us this morning through the Wairapa district up in towards the hills of Tairafti, but that clears away just a little bit of cloud this afternoon. [39:45] And then a fine looking story on the other side of the hills to the Bay of Plenty across towards Waikato. [39:50] Now there is that band of wetter weather lingering up towards the north of the Auckland and northern coast. [39:56] That arrives back with us as we head through the night time. [39:59] You can see a longer spell of rain just across those far northern parts of New Zealand. [40:03] A few showers in the far south, but for many of us it's a dry looking day. [40:07] And Tuesday is looking pretty decent as well. [40:11] 23 away from 8, time now to talk business. [40:13] Thanks to our partners Forsyth Bar, Garth's in the studio. [40:15] Garth, good morning. [40:16] Brian. [40:16] So, oil price, what's happening there? [40:18] Look, Ford price back down under $90 a barrel in quarter four, if we're looking right ahead. [40:25] Heading that way in quarter three, so the long-term trend heading in the right direction. [40:29] And pretty steady at the moment. [40:30] I think last time I looked was just up about 1% on Friday's close and down about 6% for the week. [40:36] So, just generally with the lack of any kind of hardcore shooting war going on, there was a wee bit of that tit for tat on Friday and you've reported some sort of skirmish type activity this morning. [40:47] So, we'll just sort of see how that does. [40:49] It shaded markets, I think, a little bit on Friday outside the US, but in America it's still just a story about those semiconductors going absolutely nuts and blowing everything else out of the water. [40:59] Now, what about the quarter one revenue for Rocket Lab, seeing it do pretty well on the stock market Friday? [41:04] Oh, rocket it up, you know, nice to have all those puns handy when you've got $105 a share now, which is, I mean, that's something that IPO'd at about $10. [41:12] So, some people have made a lot of money, a lot of them are Kiwis. [41:14] And that was really just, I think, about $200 million revenue, so that's $800 million a year if that holds for the whole year. [41:23] They are talking about huge contracts that they've done with the Defence Department for a range of different sort of space warfare programmes. [41:30] They've also got a confidential contract for the neutron and electron rockets. [41:34] So, the neutron's the one, big one, that they haven't managed to launch yet, so that's probably the question that's been hanging over their result for a while. [41:40] But these numbers suggest that, you know, it's doing pretty well. [41:42] So, Peter Beck, he also dialled his salary down to $1 US dollar a year. [41:47] He was being paid $800 grand and, you know, $20-something million worth of stock options. [41:52] He passed on those and says, well, put that money into hiring engineers, which is just a huge bet. [41:56] I mean, he's probably already worth $5 or $6 billion out of his value in the company. [42:01] But if you think Donald Trump has been talking about how, hey, we need to see defence executives actually putting some money on the table [42:10] and not pumping up their own stock options, that's a pretty good bet. [42:13] Yeah, totally. [42:14] Garth, just finally this morning, I see Riley Kennedy has been speaking to the new Fonterra boss. [42:19] Which is interesting because he's only been in the job for about 10 or 11 days. [42:23] But really interesting in there, he's sort of talking about wanting to fight for New Zealand milk supply probably harder than the cooperative has before. [42:29] They've tended to be a bit like reluctant to sort of pitch in and say they're aggressively going after farmers. [42:34] But he's saying he does want more farmers to join the cooperative. [42:37] He thinks overall that the industry's stronger, if it's stronger, that they're focused, that basically they feed the returns back to farmers, shareholders, [42:46] rather than seeing that milk as a cost on their operation. [42:49] And so he's going to be going quite aggressively after them, going pretty aggressively after growth in Southeast Asia [42:53] and looking at just lining up some pretty smart bets on new product with investments here. [42:59] But basically saying that the world's moving really fast. [43:02] So even if they're in a good place, you can't stay in a good place for long unless you're delivering to your customers. [43:07] Excellent. Garth, good to see you this morning. Thank you very much. [43:10] That's Garth Bray with our business update. [43:12] We talk business every day thanks to our partners Forsyth Bar. [43:15] And we will shortly catch up with Aaron Ibbotson from Forsyth Bar for a look at the markets. [43:21] We're back right after this. [43:22] Stop paying the waiting tax. [43:24] The money you could miss out on by delaying the start of your investment journey. [43:29] Up your tempo with Tempo, the guided investment app that helps you get started. [43:34] Don't delay because you don't think you have enough time, money or know-how. [43:38] All you need is a goal and our guidance will help with the rest. [43:42] You can do it. [43:43] We can help. [43:44] Here's how. [43:45] Download Tempo now. [43:46] I'm Suzanne Paul. [43:51] And now I'm going to help you solve your problems with Chelsea. [43:54] Just DM us your problems and together let's fix them. [43:58] Baking solves everything. [44:00] DM us now. [44:01] It was picked black, middle of the night. [44:08] We saw this tree. [44:12] It was the tallest tree ever. [44:16] And then we walked. [44:18] And walked. [44:21] Then we sat out of camp. [44:22] Well, Mom did. [44:23] That's quite an adventure, buddy. [44:26] Yeah, it kind of was. [44:28] What do you want to do now? [44:30] In 1985, my grandfather set out to make the world a better tea. [44:39] That's why we grew our own, unlike other tea companies. [44:43] Then pick the best leaves by hand, not machine. [44:46] And pack it right here in Sri Lanka. [44:50] But it's not just the taste that makes our tea better. [44:53] 15% of our profit goes to humanity. [44:56] And to the elephants. [44:58] As my grandfather said, [45:00] Do try it. [45:04] When building for investment, it's important to find a team that you can trust. [45:08] We decide to build the GGs because they're good quality that they always provide us. [45:13] They help us throughout the whole process of getting the resource consent to the building consent. [45:18] And their contracts are very easy to understand. [45:20] We have built four houses with GJ Gardeners. [45:22] And it's just easier every time we work with them. [45:25] I'll definitely recommend GJs to all of my friends and family. [45:29] If you're thinking of building, choose the builder you'll want to build with time and time again. [45:36] Welcome back. [45:36] Time for a look at the markets now. [45:38] Thanks to our partners, Forsyth Bar. [45:39] Aaron Ibbotson, Senior Analyst at Four Bar, is with us this morning. [45:42] Good morning, Aaron. [45:43] Good to see you. [45:44] Good morning, Ryan. [45:44] Good to see you. [45:45] Let's start with At Home with Infratil and their data center deal. [45:49] How big of a deal is it? [45:51] Well, it's actually a very major deal, I would say. [45:55] And we hear a lot about semiconductors doing very well around the world. [45:59] It's what's driving the market at the moment overseas, both in the US but also in Asia. [46:03] But we have a little sliver of it here at home with Infratil. [46:08] So Infratil owns 50% of Canberra data center in Australia. [46:13] And they got awarded what can only be described as a massive deal last week, 555 megawatts. [46:21] This is sort of global scale, multi-billion dollar, multi-year deal. [46:26] And it was sort of a proud moment, I think, for the New Zealand Stock Exchange to get exposure [46:33] to this. [46:34] And it's two times what their current total operating assets are. [46:38] It's massive. [46:40] So how have the share price reacted to it? [46:43] Well, Infratil, you know, I think I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that the New Zealand market [46:47] was boring, but it's been a little bit less boring. [46:50] So Infratil was up, I think it was 20% last week, but it's up 30% over the last month. [46:55] So catching a bit of sort of the overseas boom in semiconductor stocks. [47:04] And I think, you know, Infratil is maybe seen as sort of traditional boring. [47:10] You know, they used to own or they still own, you know, Wellington Airport, New Zealand, electricity [47:16] generations, things like that. [47:19] But they actually, vast majority or the absolute most important asset that they now have is [47:25] data centers. [47:26] That's fascinating, isn't it? [47:28] What about the semi? [47:29] You mentioned the semiconductor markets. [47:32] They're doing very well. [47:33] The companies that are dominating the markets at the moment, NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, etc., they're [47:38] all semiconductor types, aren't they? [47:40] Yeah. [47:40] So, yeah, we're in a sort of weird market at the moment. [47:45] You know, there's a lot of concerns. [47:46] As a colleague of mine said, you know, there's always an excuse not to invest. [47:52] You know, there's always something to worry about. [47:54] But we've just had a U.S. earnings season. [47:56] I believe you talked about it before. [47:58] But, you know, it's been very strong overall, you know, record strong earnings growth. [48:03] But in particular, the semiconductor sector stands out. [48:07] So we're building out this whole new world of artificial intelligence. [48:12] And it's across Asia and the companies you mentioned. [48:15] But there are others as well. [48:16] You know, Samsung, Micron, you know, Intel even now is coming back to life. [48:22] SK Hynix. [48:22] So there's a lot of Korean and U.S. companies that are doing exceptionally well. [48:28] And it's effectively just a shortage of compute power. [48:31] You know, that's what's helping Infratil as well. [48:34] Speaking of exceptionally well, I saw Saudi Aramco release the results for Q1. [48:39] Not bad. [48:41] No, it's interesting with Saudi in particular because Saudi can actually get most of their [48:48] oil out through the Red Sea. [48:50] The pipeline, right? [48:51] The pipeline, yeah. [48:52] A little backdoor. [48:54] The backdoor. [48:55] So if you think about prices being significantly higher and slightly reduced, you know, sales, [49:03] they are actually making more money than ever, as you realized. [49:06] Yeah. [49:07] Well, and does this affect, you know, as a world's largest oil company, isn't it, going forward? [49:13] Are they going to be all good even though the straight's closed? [49:16] They've basically shown they've got other ways of doing business, right? [49:19] Yeah, I don't think Saudi Aramco and Saudi Arabia more generally is quite far down on [49:27] the list of countries that's going to end up in trouble, I think, because of the closure [49:31] of the straight war most. [49:32] So, and Saudi Aramco specifically, I mean, it's barely a listed company, it's just a very [49:37] small part of it that's listed, so it's hard to invest in, but, you know, they are for sure [49:43] doing exceptionally well at the moment. [49:44] So, back home, again, you've got a few unusually large share price moves for us. [49:51] Yeah. [49:52] So, I think, you know, Infertile you highlighted, so up 30% in the last month, that's quite unusual [49:58] for a stable company like that. [50:00] On the other side, we had A2 Milk, so the market is quite, described as jittery at the [50:06] moment. [50:07] So, get really excited about some of these semiconductor stories, but any disappointments [50:13] or any sort of unclearness, you get punished quite hard. [50:18] So, A2 Milk was, I think it was down over 30% over the last month, and it wasn't totally [50:24] unwarranted. [50:25] You know, they had a tiny little recall in the US that the market got stressed about, [50:30] but which was minuscule. [50:31] They had some supply chain issues, you know, and the stock was quite expensive, but I still [50:38] think it's interesting to see this sort of large cap by New Zealand standard stock moves, [50:44] which have been quite large, unusually large for New Zealand. [50:47] Interesting stuff. [50:48] Aaron, good to see you this morning. [50:48] Thank you very much. [50:49] Aaron Ebbetson, Senior Analyst at Forsyth Bar. [50:52] Thanks to our partners, Forsyth Bar. [50:54] It is 13 minutes away from 8. [50:57] Warnings to always check weather conditions after a man and his dogs were rescued from a submerged [51:02] ute in North Canterbury. [51:03] Joining us with the details, Claire Sherwood, ZB South Island News Director. [51:07] Claire, good morning. [51:08] Good morning. [51:09] So, what do you know? [51:11] Well, this is pretty dramatic. [51:12] It happened on Saturday afternoon. [51:14] Coast Guard, police and other emergency services were called to North Canterbury to the Waimakerete [51:18] River. [51:19] This was one of those situations that could easily have ended in tragedy, and we've seen tragedies [51:24] like this, particularly in the North Island, during severe weather events in recent times. [51:28] Effectively, a man was in a submerged ute. [51:31] The water from the river was right up to the tray of the ute, where he was standing by [51:38] with his two dogs awaiting rescue. [51:40] Now, at any time, the river that was running very quickly could have toppled the ute, and [51:45] the man and his dogs would have been swept away. [51:47] Now, this came about because, frankly, the sky was blue. [51:51] It was a beautiful day in Canterbury right across the board on Saturday. [51:54] But Coast Guards say it's a really good example of what you need to be aware of, because whilst [51:59] here in Christchurch in North Canterbury, things looked good, there was severe rain falling [52:03] in the main divide, which meant that our Alpine rivers were in flood, and that, of course, [52:07] flowed through the river network and put this man in severe danger. [52:10] This was a good news story. [52:11] He was rescued. [52:12] Exactly what happened and how he got to that position, I'm sure, is a story yet to be told. [52:16] But for now, the emergency services are saying it's very much an example of what could [52:20] have gone terribly wrong. [52:22] And in future, people need to be very aware of not just checking the forecast for the [52:25] area they're in, but also elsewhere, particularly along the river systems. [52:30] And, Claire, there's been concerns that infrastructure won't be able to cope with a new development [52:35] just outside Christchurch. [52:37] What's the latest there? [52:38] Yeah, well, we know that Selwyn, where, of course, Rolleston is the town of the future, [52:43] has been growing exponentially in recent years. [52:46] In fact, there's 34,000 people living in the Selwyn district at the moment. [52:50] That's expected to reach more than 50,000 by the year 2030, and it is continuing to grow, [52:56] making it New Zealand's fastest-growing region. [52:58] Of course, new areas of development are popping up. [53:00] It seems to have primary schools arriving left, right and centre. [53:04] And now we have news that the Carter Group is putting in what will be one of the South [53:07] Island's biggest ever subdivisions. [53:09] It's more than twice the size of the Farringdon subdivision that's already in Rolleston, [53:14] and also larger than Pegasus in North Canterbury. [53:16] Four and a half thousand homes are coming. [53:19] Of course, with that comes concerns about infrastructure, [53:21] which we already know and we've been reporting on, [53:23] has been struggling in recent times with the number of people that they have currently. [53:28] Carter Group's Tim Carter, though, says, [53:30] rest assured, things are under control. [53:32] The developers are going to be putting $100 million in contribution towards the council [53:36] for upgrades to the infrastructure out there, including things like sewer pumps, etc. [53:41] They're also going to be funding its own retail hubs and other supports to go with that. [53:46] Plus, it's in negotiations with the Ministry of Education about bringing enough schooling [53:51] to the area to keep up with demand. [53:52] So, there's certainly no slowing down when it comes to Selwyn, [53:55] but these developers are saying that they're doing their part to ensure that things can keep up. [54:00] All right, Claire, thanks for the update. [54:02] ZB South Island News Director Claire Sherwood with us this morning. [54:05] It is 10 to 8. [54:06] We're back right after this break. [54:07] We've done a few subdivisions with GJ Gardener and from the resource consent to the building consent, [54:13] getting the council permits and stuff, [54:14] always GJ Gardeners are ahead and helping us out through the whole process [54:18] and it was so easy working with GJ. [54:20] We all have a routine to help us get through the week, [54:30] but that doesn't mean it has to feel so routine. [54:34] Because with my food bag, you can come home knowing you've always got a yum meal to dish up [54:39] with new recipes to try and plenty of favourites that are simple, healthy and always delicious. [54:47] It's a dinner routine that isn't stuck on repeat. [54:50] My food bag. Dinner done better. [55:21] Morgan Wallen, Kaylee Bell, Jelly Roll, Megan Maroney, Chris Stapleton, [55:26] all the country stars have come to play on the all-new iHeartCountry NZ. [55:30] Your new home for country is iHeartCountry NZ. [55:35] We just switched to Two Degrees. [55:37] Well, we tested the networks and couldn't see any difference. [55:40] But Two Degrees has free Aussie business roaming. [55:43] And they're the fastest growing business network. [55:49] You can have what she's having. [55:51] For 150 years, public trust has helped generations of New Zealanders with their wills. [55:57] Make yours today and ensure the things that matter go to the people that matter. [56:02] Welcome back. Remember the dancing Hungarian politician? [56:10] No, neither. But he's back. [56:13] Jolt Hegerjoush is his name. [56:15] He went viral on the night of the country's April election when Peter Magar was voted in as Prime Minister. [56:20] Now, Magar's had his inauguration at the weekend and Hegerjoush is dancing there too. [56:25] Comes a month after the opposition party was elected following 16 years of government under Viktor Orbán, [56:41] who would never... [56:43] Is there music or is it just crowd that he's dancing to? [56:48] Anyway, there are beats apparently. [56:49] Enjoying himself. [56:51] Right, it is time to talk sport thanks to... [56:54] Well, thanks to our sports boys. [56:56] Cam McMillan's here and Chris Reeve. [56:57] Good morning to you both. [56:58] Good morning. [56:59] Nice to see you this morning. [57:00] You too. [57:01] Very quickly, we spoke to Pioneer earlier about great news about the Phoenix, the women's team, isn't it? [57:07] Yeah, great game, great result. [57:08] It just shows that you can get an atmosphere. [57:10] There was probably like 6,000 fans there in like a smaller ground. [57:14] And probably a lot of sports teams around New Zealand would be like, [57:17] Oh, that was a pretty bad crowd. [57:18] They wouldn't be happy with that, but it just shows you can get like, [57:20] if you've got 6,000 people in a smaller area, it was great sporting theatre. [57:23] It was awesome. [57:24] Totally. [57:25] What about Auckland FC? [57:26] And so they've got, they drew, it was one all, wasn't it? [57:29] And then they've got the second half of this. [57:32] Yeah, so it's quite interesting, Adelaide and Auckland FC, they've now played, I think it's five times and drawn four of those. [57:40] So they're two really well-matched teams and it proved it again over the weekend. [57:45] Auckland FC took an early lead and Adelaide came back and puts it all in the balance. [57:51] This is the same spot where Auckland FC sort of faltered last year. [57:54] So now they get kind of the reverse of last year. [57:57] They're going away now and, you know, they've been playing better away this year. [58:01] So I think they'll be pretty happy with the position they're in. [58:03] That classic thing where like the Auckland FC coach is like, well, the pressure's on them. [58:06] And it's like, oh, probably Adelaide wanted to say that first as well. [58:09] You know, you always want to say the pressure's on the other team. [58:11] But yeah, going away on Friday night in Adelaide, it'd be a big crowd there. [58:15] So yeah, it's going to be another great game. [58:17] Now, I've been on air since this happened, but Arsenal and West Ham. [58:19] Arsenal's beaten West Ham 1-0, quite controversial. [58:23] Yeah, it was down to pretty much the last play of the game. [58:26] West Ham looked to score and then there was lots of celebration. [58:29] That would have meant a lot for West Ham. [58:30] They would have got a draw and they would have moved probably out of the relegation zone or right on the edge of it. [58:35] Also would have hurt Arsenal. [58:37] Arsenal, but then it went to VAR and the call was on the goalkeeper. [58:42] And I don't know, I'm kind of, I don't like this, that football, this happens a lot in the goal mouth. [58:47] Every time there's a free kick or a corner and they just let it go. [58:51] And then when a game is decided, that's when VAR really comes into it. [58:55] Yeah, we were debating this this morning. [58:56] I didn't think. [58:57] I'm from a family of goalkeepers. [58:59] So I'm a little bit biased when the goalkeeper gets obstructed and defending a corner. [59:03] And I feel like, in this instance, the goalkeeper's hand was kind of held. [59:08] It didn't stop him from getting to the ball, but it might have, I don't know, influenced him not being able to grab it. [59:15] And so because West Ham scored a goal, they go and check it. [59:19] Like Cam said, because it was such a pivotal moment, they play it by the book. [59:24] But that sort of thing gets let go a lot, especially in the Premier League. [59:29] Now, what's happening with New Zealand-England women's cricket? [59:32] Yeah, tight game this morning and there was a lot of chances for the White Ferns to win. [59:36] I mean, they lost their last five wickets for just seven runs. [59:38] They were cruising there. [59:40] And then England down to their last wicket. [59:44] Nancy Patel dropped the catch, which would have won the game for the White Ferns. [59:48] There it is there. [59:49] She was at backward point. [59:50] You've got to take those. [59:51] She kind of was in two decisions, how to take it and dropped it. [59:55] And then the next over, England won it. [59:57] Charlie Dean, the captain, standing captain, getting the winning run. [1:00:00] So a thrilling game. [1:00:01] But the White Ferns are not really there for the ODIs. [1:00:03] The focus is on the T20s. [1:00:05] The T20 World Cup is next month. [1:00:07] They are the defending champions. [1:00:08] So, yeah, it's a shame they lost this game. [1:00:10] But, yeah, the real focus is on the shorter format for them. [1:00:12] Okay. [1:00:13] And Super Rugby Hurricanes back to the top of the table, I see. [1:00:16] Yeah, they looked pretty good with a few key absences. [1:00:19] So all trending well there. [1:00:21] Fantastic. [1:00:22] Put a line through the blues. [1:00:23] That's what I'm saying. [1:00:24] Cam's writing the blues off. [1:00:25] They lost to the Crusaders. [1:00:26] They're done. [1:00:26] Is there really? [1:00:27] End of. [1:00:28] They're done. [1:00:29] Had none. [1:00:30] Okay, very good. [1:00:30] Good to see you guys this morning. [1:00:31] Thank you, Cam McMillan. [1:00:33] Herald Deputy Sports Editor, Chris Reeve. [1:00:34] Herald Sports Reporter. [1:00:35] Time is 3 to 8. [1:00:38] We've done a few subdivisions with GJ Gardner. [1:00:40] And from the resource consent to the billing consent, getting the council permits and stuff. [1:00:45] Always GJ Gardners are ahead and helping us out through the whole process. [1:00:49] And it was so easy working with GJ. [1:00:51] GJ Gardner. [1:00:55] Routine to help us get through the week. [1:00:57] But that doesn't mean it has to feel so routine. [1:01:05] Because with My Food Bag, you can come home knowing you've always got a yum meal to dish [1:01:10] up with new recipes to try and plenty of favourites that are simple, healthy and always delicious. [1:01:18] It's a dinner routine that isn't stuck on repeat. [1:01:21] My Food Bag. [1:01:22] Dinner done better. [1:01:23] We just switched to Two Degrees. [1:02:08] Well, we tested the networks and couldn't see any difference. [1:02:11] But Two Degrees has free Aussie business roaming. [1:02:14] And they're the fastest growing business network. [1:02:20] You can have what she's having. [1:02:21] For 150 years, Public Trust has helped generations of New Zealanders with their wills. [1:02:28] Make yours today. [1:02:29] And ensure that things that matter go to the people that matter. [1:02:39] Welcome back. [1:02:39] It is coming up to 8 o'clock. [1:02:42] So One Nation doing well over the weekend, as was Reform UK. [1:02:47] As I said earlier, it's MNP that kind of saves us from the types of swings that you're seeing [1:02:53] in Australian and British politics at the moment. [1:02:56] Because we give our smaller parties more of a say. [1:02:59] We reduce our wasted vote. [1:03:01] All of those things. [1:03:02] But also, migration is not the issue here that it is in those other countries. [1:03:06] Which is largely what's driving support for those smaller parties. [1:03:09] Right now, it's 8 o'clock. [1:03:10] Let's get to news. [1:03:11] Now News. [1:03:18] Powered by Newstalk ZB. [1:03:21] A new poll predicts the government will return to office at the election [1:03:26] and its margin of victory is growing. [1:03:29] According to the NZ Herald Motu Research Poll of Polls, [1:03:32] the probability of the coalition winning a second term is 88.3%. [1:03:37] The model shows it's extended its lead over the opposition by two points in the last 12 months. [1:03:44] Despite Nationals' vote declining, New Zealand First's rise is partly made up for it. [1:03:50] It's the opposite for the left bloc, with the Green Party and Te Parti Māori shedding votes, [1:03:55] meaning Labour's steady rise hasn't translated into a polling lead. [1:04:00] Deputy Prime Minister David Seymour says he assumes New Zealand First leader Winston Peters [1:04:05] sought permission before he released budget-sensitive information. [1:04:09] The New Zealand First leader told Newstalk ZB on Friday, [1:04:13] the government's scrapping the free final year of tertiary study in this year's budget. [1:04:18] Finance Minister Nicola Willis confirmed the move and says she'll have more to say in due course. [1:04:24] There's no clear picture of how many students without visas are being allowed into New Zealand schools. [1:04:30] Ministry of Education data show there were at least 520 applications over the past two years. [1:04:37] The true national total is unclear due to suppressed data. [1:04:41] The system applies to school-aged children without a legal right to be in the country, [1:04:46] but who can still be enrolled under a government policy. [1:04:50] Mega Ministry MB sought advice on working-from-home requirements [1:04:55] for public servants facing steep petrol prices. [1:04:59] MB says it asked for advice, [1:05:01] given working-from-home was mentioned in the 2024 National Fuel Plan [1:05:05] as a voluntary way of reducing demand. [1:05:09] The Public Service Commission advised MB the move would be unlikely to ease fuel supply or prices. [1:05:16] The government's cybersecurity spending increases have shrunk in the past three years. [1:05:20] Internal affairs data released to Newstalk ZB shows 47 agencies spent more than $169 million [1:05:27] on cybersecurity last year, just over 2% up on 2024. [1:05:33] In the years before, spending rose about 22% and 82%. [1:05:39] GCSB and NZSIS Minister Chris Pink says each agency prioritises its needs and submits budget bids. [1:05:47] He says government agencies are working to broaden engagement with the private sector [1:05:52] to increase cyber resilience with a range of initiatives underway. [1:05:57] Repatriation flights have begun for some of the passengers evacuated [1:06:00] from a Hantavirus-stricken cruise ship. [1:06:03] The boat docked in Spain's Canary Islands yesterday. [1:06:06] The one New Zealander on board is among the last to be evacuated [1:06:09] and will board a flight to Australia. [1:06:12] The Wellington Phoenix will face Melbourne City for the A-League women's football title on Saturday. [1:06:25] Arsenal remain top of the Premier League after a 1-0 win over West Ham. [1:06:30] Tim Price has produced his best finish at the badminton horse trials. [1:06:33] He's come second on 17-year-old Bay Gilding Falco. [1:06:37] Leaders Penrith have beaten Canberra 30-18 to close out Round 10 of league's NRL. [1:06:44] And All Black's coach Dave Rennie has guided Kobe to the top of the regular season in Japan's Rugby League One. [1:06:58] Morena, good morning. [1:06:59] A bit of a chilly start first thing. [1:07:01] But for most of us, Monday is looking like a dry day. [1:07:04] Southwesterly winds will be keeping it on the cool side this week. [1:07:07] But I think we are going to find many spots stay dry. [1:07:09] In the north though, that lingering feature is something to come back to this evening. [1:07:13] Down here in the south, we'll have an odd shower that runs in towards the southern coast. [1:07:16] But very isolated, I think most of the time it's a dry story. [1:07:19] Very cold and frosty first thing through central Otago. [1:07:22] But dry and sunny. [1:07:24] As we head up the coast, we might find an odd shower skirting the likes of Banks Mencher. [1:07:28] But for most of us, it's fine, dry and sunny. [1:07:30] After a rather chilly start. [1:07:33] Again, an odd shower perhaps around that Wairapa coast. [1:07:35] But for most of us, it's a dry looking day. [1:07:37] Taranaki doing very nicely. [1:07:39] And across towards Whanganui as well. [1:07:40] Plenty of clear sky and sunshine. [1:07:42] An odd shower still with us this morning through the Waira district up in towards the hills of Tairafti. [1:07:48] But that clears away just a little bit of cloud this afternoon. [1:07:51] And then a fine looking story on the other side of the hills. [1:07:53] So the Bay of Plenty across towards Waikato. [1:07:56] Now there is that band of wetter weather lingering up towards the north of the Auckland and northern coast. [1:08:01] That arrives back with us as we head through the night time. [1:08:04] You can see a longer spell of rain just across those far northern parts. [1:08:08] A few showers in the far south. [1:08:10] But for many of us, it's a dry looking day. [1:08:13] And Tuesday is looking pretty decent as well. [1:08:16] Time is five minutes after eight. [1:08:18] Benjamin Netanyahu says the war with Iran is not over. [1:08:22] During an interview with 60 Minutes, the Israeli Prime Minister says they still have uranium. [1:08:28] I think it accomplished a great deal. [1:08:29] But it's not over because there's still nuclear material, enriched uranium that has to be taken out of Iran. [1:08:36] There is still enrichment sites that have to be dismantled. [1:08:40] There are still proxies that Iran supports. [1:08:44] There are ballistic missiles that they still want to produce. [1:08:48] Now we've degraded a lot of it. [1:08:50] But all of that is still there. [1:08:52] You go in and you take it out. [1:08:56] Iran still has around 970 pounds of uranium, which is close to being nuclear bomb grade, according to international monitors. [1:09:06] Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party scored its first ever federal seat in a by-election. [1:09:11] Charles Croucher, 9 News political editor, joins us this morning. [1:09:14] Good to have you on the program, Charles. [1:09:16] How significant is this for, I mean, we saw what happened with the local elections. [1:09:22] Now we're seeing a by-election at federal level. [1:09:24] What does this tell us about Pauline Hanson and One Nation going forward? [1:09:28] Well, the comparison to Nigel Farage is a good one, I think, Ryan, because this was a big middle finger to the establishment, not just the establishment, but the government and the status quo in Australia. [1:09:38] The fact that One Nation has now gone into what was traditionally conservative coalition heartland. [1:09:43] It's a seat that's been held by the conservative parties, the coalition in Australia for 75 years. [1:09:48] And they've done it and done it easily. [1:09:50] It is a real warning to the rest of the country that One Nation is coming. [1:09:54] And Pauline Hanson and her deputy Barnaby Joyce said as much on Saturday night in that by-election. [1:10:01] You know, this is a regional seat. [1:10:03] It is traditionally conservative, lots of small towns. [1:10:05] And that will give some comfort to the ruling Labour Party. [1:10:10] But this is a shake-up. [1:10:11] It's an earthquake to the way that Australian politics has been assumed for the last seven or eight decades. [1:10:19] This is what we're seeing in the US, in the UK. [1:10:23] And now it's proven that Australia is not immune. [1:10:26] And what does it mean for the Liberals? [1:10:28] I mean, they're the big loser here, aren't they? [1:10:30] They are. [1:10:31] This was former Liberal leader Susan Lee's old seat when she got deposed as leader only a couple of months ago. [1:10:36] She resigned from Parliament altogether. [1:10:38] That's what forced this by-election. [1:10:40] She had won it comfortably at the last 25 years. [1:10:44] This is the warning call to the Liberal Party. [1:10:46] They really now face being squeezed out of the cities by Labor and by this teal independent movement that's become quite large here in the last decade or so. [1:10:55] And now squeezed out of the regions by One Nation. [1:10:58] If you can't win in the cities and you can't win in the regions, then you can't win at all. [1:11:02] And that is a real existential crisis that's facing the Liberal Party now. [1:11:06] For so long in our lifetimes, they have been the natural party of government here in Australia. [1:11:11] That clearly isn't the case. [1:11:13] And there's lots of soul-searching before a state election in Victoria later this year and then long-term before the next federal election. [1:11:21] What is it in your mind that the big parties, or the Liberals in particular, have ignored? [1:11:27] Is it immigration? [1:11:28] I mean, is that what One Nation is riding high off the back of? [1:11:31] That's the natural thing with One Nation. [1:11:33] But I don't think it's as easy as saying immigration. [1:11:35] This is, in many ways, a party of protest and a party of grievance. [1:11:39] It is the ejector seat election. [1:11:40] You just whack the button and get whoever is out in. [1:11:43] And that would link to what we've seen in the US with the rise of Donald Trump and the MAGA movement. [1:11:49] Also, you know, in Germany, across France with Marine Le Pen and then into Europe with what you saw in the UK, what we saw with Nigel Farage and reform on the weekend. [1:11:57] This is people that are effectively sick of the way status quo politics has been working or not working for them. [1:12:05] They feel like they're being left behind. [1:12:07] And Pauline Hanson, who throughout this campaign was donated the plane by Australia's richest person, you know, doesn't always line up the way you think it would. [1:12:14] And she has become this champion for battlers. [1:12:17] And they see in Pauline Hanson someone who has been around a long time. [1:12:22] She's almost part of the establishment. [1:12:23] She's been sort of part of the Australian political furniture now for the better part of 30 years. [1:12:28] But she's having this meteoric rise and by far more popular now than we've ever seen before. [1:12:33] The other thing that might be in play here is they've seen a permission structure that other people think the way that they are thinking. [1:12:40] And all of a sudden they feel allowed to go out and vote for Pauline Hanson. [1:12:43] That's why they won seats in South Australia. [1:12:46] That's why the result last night was so emphatic. [1:12:49] And that's why the Liberal Party should be worried about what's coming down the pipeline. [1:12:53] Really interesting. [1:12:54] Great analysis this morning. [1:12:55] Great to have you on the program, Charles. [1:12:56] Thank you very much. [1:12:57] Charles Croucher, 9 News political editor with us live this morning. [1:13:01] It is nine after eight. [1:13:02] Time for a quick break. [1:13:04] Stop paying the waiting tax. [1:13:06] The money you could miss out on by delaying the start of your investment journey. 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[1:14:18] Well, Mom did. [1:14:20] That's quite an adventure, buddy. [1:14:22] Yeah, it kind of was. [1:14:24] What do you want to do now? [1:14:26] When building for investment, it's important to find a team that you can trust. [1:14:34] We decide to build the GJs because they're good quality that they always provide us. [1:14:39] They help us throughout the whole process of getting the resource consent to the building [1:14:43] consent. [1:14:44] And their contracts are very easy to understand. [1:14:46] We have built four houses with GJ Gardeners and it's just easier every time we work with [1:14:51] them. [1:14:51] I'll definitely recommend GJs to all of my friends and family. [1:14:56] If you're thinking of building, choose the builder you'll want to build with time and [1:14:59] time again. [1:15:01] In 1985, my grandfather set out to make the world a better tea. [1:15:06] That's why we grow our own, unlike other tea companies. [1:15:10] Then pick the best leaves by hand, not machine, and pack it right here in Sri Lanka. [1:15:16] But it's not just the taste that makes our tea better. [1:15:18] The coalition government will return to power up the election based on the latest numbers [1:15:35] from the NZ Herald Mutu Research Poll of Polls. [1:15:38] According to the model, there's an 88.3% chance of the coalition winning the next election [1:15:45] and getting a second term. [1:15:47] National would have 37 seats, New Zealand first 16 in Act 10. [1:15:51] Labour would be the largest party in Parliament with 43 seats, but the Greens' 11 seats and [1:15:56] Te Pate Māori's three seats would not be enough to form a government. [1:16:00] Thomas Coghlan, the Herald's political editor, is with us this morning. [1:16:03] Thomas, good morning. [1:16:05] Good morning, Ryan. [1:16:05] No great surprise here, I suppose. [1:16:08] It is a poll of polls, so we can kind of see the polls. [1:16:11] But this is interesting, the number in particular, 88%. [1:16:14] Yeah, quite right. [1:16:16] As you say, it is a poll of polls. [1:16:17] So the number itself should reflect the polls that we've been seeing, and lo and behold, [1:16:23] it does. [1:16:24] I guess the interesting thing there is the fact that the margin between what the coalition [1:16:28] is likely to get and what the opposition left-wing bloc is likely to get has actually [1:16:33] been growing. [1:16:34] The coalition's sort of sitting on about 52%, the opposition's down in the mid-40s. [1:16:41] That's a margin that's been growing over the last year. [1:16:43] It seems that the two blocs were at their closest in about May last year, where there [1:16:47] was just 3.3% separating them. [1:16:50] What we've been seeing, I think, is national slow decline, and I've been sort of plunging [1:16:56] towards the 30% mark, and then below the 30% mark in a lot of polls now. [1:17:00] And what's been saving the coalition? [1:17:02] Well, it's the rise of New Zealand First. [1:17:03] So as national sheds votes, New Zealand First is gaining them, winning them, probably [1:17:08] off national. [1:17:09] And that is why the coalition's margin of victory is growing. [1:17:12] It's New Zealand First really coming to the rescue and saving national from its own decline. [1:17:17] I reckon what we'll see from here, as we get closer to the election and people realise [1:17:21] it will be a coalition re-elected, is you get a bunch of Labour voters who will get in [1:17:25] behind. [1:17:26] You know, New Zealand First might leech a few national supporters back to the Blue Party, [1:17:31] but then you get those Labour voters going, oh, well, I better take out my Winston insurance [1:17:35] policy. [1:17:37] Yes, I wonder whether you will see a bit of that. [1:17:40] But, you know, National and Act are running on superannuation reform. [1:17:44] They're also quite likely, they haven't, National hasn't announced it yet, but National seems [1:17:48] to be gearing up to run on asset sales and asset sales policy. [1:17:53] New Zealand First is likely to run on blocking those policies. [1:17:56] They're pretty clear that they don't like asset sales and they've been explicit, that [1:17:59] there are no changes to the superannuation age coming under New Zealand First. [1:18:02] So, yes, if you're a Labour voter looking at those numbers, on these numbers, Labour is [1:18:08] about where it was on election night 2017, which was quite a, or the 2017 election, quite [1:18:14] a disappointing result for them because Labour plus the Greens just doesn't really get you [1:18:19] anywhere. [1:18:20] And even when you add Tapani Māori in there, it's just, it is not enough. [1:18:23] So you're right, there is a chance that some people come over to New Zealand First to [1:18:27] just try and kneecap some of National and Act for more right-wing tendencies that perhaps [1:18:33] those Labour swing voters don't like. [1:18:36] The other thing is, you know, we've talked about this before, Thomas, but coalition likely [1:18:41] to get back in. [1:18:42] It's the composition of that coalition, right? [1:18:44] And this is what you're alluding to as well. [1:18:47] Do you think there's still a live possibility that Luxon gets rolled pre-election? [1:18:52] I mean, just to try and, not saying that they're going to lose the election, therefore get rid [1:18:58] of Luxon, but that you want National to do better within that composition of the government? [1:19:03] Yes, I think National is going to lose so many MPs on all the polls at the moment. [1:19:09] As long as National is below 30% of the polls, there's always going to be a possibility that [1:19:14] the next poll, the next Christopher Luxon sort of gif, as it were, would potentially [1:19:20] trigger a leadership contest. [1:19:24] Below 30% is so low for the National Party and government, you have to consider that there [1:19:30] is a possibility of change as long as they are below 30%. [1:19:34] To be honest, a year ago, I think most people would have said below 35% is where there's [1:19:40] a possibility of National changing its leadership, but now they seem to have acclimatised themselves [1:19:45] to be below 35%, and I'd say so long as they remain below 30%, there is a chance that the [1:19:53] next problem will trigger a leadership contest. [1:19:58] That was Thomas Coglin, the Herald's political editor on the show earlier this morning. [1:20:02] Now it is time for our panel, Simon Bridges, Auckland Business Chamber CEO and Chelsea Daniels, [1:20:06] host of the Front Page podcaster here this morning. [1:20:08] Good morning. [1:20:09] Good morning. [1:20:09] Good to see you both. [1:20:10] Good morning. [1:20:10] Let's start with that poll of polls. [1:20:12] Thomas has just told us about it. [1:20:13] Simon, thoughts? [1:20:15] It's a cute story by Thomas, and sort of interesting, but somewhat patronising. [1:20:20] Yeah, well, he deserves that, because it's a say, it's actually a nice narrative, but [1:20:25] there's a few issues with it. [1:20:27] I mean, one is the time frame. [1:20:28] I mean, what a poll said in January 2024 is entirely irrelevant to what happens this year, [1:20:34] so I just don't buy that. [1:20:36] Secondly, I think the trend is our friend, right? [1:20:39] So what does matter, and what I think is the interesting thing about the story is, which [1:20:44] I think probably if we were really watching it, we knew, but, you know, National down, [1:20:48] NZ first up, Labour up, Greens down. [1:20:51] Actually, I hadn't thought so much about the green component. [1:20:53] So I think that is interesting. [1:20:56] I think the other thing that all political commentators tend to do in New Zealand is [1:21:01] they tend to say, well, we've got this government right now under MNP, and it's these three parties, [1:21:05] and over here's these three parties, so that's the government, right? [1:21:08] But, of course, New Zealand first is a swing party, and I don't think we can ignore that [1:21:14] actually on the trend, there's a two-party option for them as well, and I just say that [1:21:18] to say, you know, so to try and say, oh, well, here's what it says for a year, it means this [1:21:24] for the election, I don't buy that. [1:21:26] I think that's simplistic. [1:21:27] It's far too way out from the election, hey? [1:21:31] Because that did say, didn't it say that Labour in this very same poll should have won [1:21:36] the last election, and, of course, we all know that it didn't, so... [1:21:39] But that timeout, yeah, that's right. [1:21:40] Yeah, yeah. [1:21:41] Yeah, I think he's not saying that there's an 88% chance that they will win the election, [1:21:45] it's just based on the polling, that's the way that it's gone, which is true. [1:21:49] I mean, you look at, this is a poll of polls. [1:21:52] Except that. [1:21:52] And that, except that Winston could go either way, but Winston has said... [1:21:55] And what happened in January last year is probably no indicator. [1:21:59] But what Winston has also said is he's not going to go that way, right? [1:22:02] No, that's true, so, you know, in the end... [1:22:05] So if you take the guy at his word... [1:22:06] I'll be clear as mud. [1:22:07] Yeah, well, you take the guy at his word, that's what he said he won't do, he won't do it, right? [1:22:12] You don't trust him. [1:22:12] Take Winston's hatred of Hibkins. [1:22:16] And don't get me wrong, the thing that is really interesting, and I think New Zealanders [1:22:21] should take heed of, is over time the trends. [1:22:25] So I come back to it. [1:22:26] You know, what's clearly happening, New Zealand first, is taking support that was for national. [1:22:33] For whatever reasons we could delve into, Labour is taking support from New Zealand first. [1:22:39] Sorry, the Greens, right? [1:22:41] So I don't know that... [1:22:42] I personally don't... [1:22:43] I haven't thought... [1:22:44] But I don't think the NZ first, they're taking a heap from the left. [1:22:48] I don't think Labour's taking a heap from the right, right? [1:22:51] I just think that's... [1:22:52] So that, to me, is interesting. [1:22:55] And then, look, the other thing that I've just been musing on, and I'll probably get messages [1:22:59] from people saying, you can't say that, that's terrible. [1:23:01] I mean, the other interesting thing that I think there's a bit of chatter, and the chatter [1:23:05] in classes around is top, right? [1:23:06] How do they go? [1:23:07] Personally, I don't see it. [1:23:09] Neither. [1:23:09] I think 5% is a really high hurdle. [1:23:12] It's a tall order. [1:23:13] You know, 3.7 or something's a long way from... [1:23:17] But that's an interesting dynamic as well. [1:23:19] Yeah, it is. [1:23:19] Right, MB has told, allowing more staff to work from home would not ease the fuel supply [1:23:27] or cost pressures. [1:23:29] And so the question is, sure more people work from home. [1:23:32] Silly idea. [1:23:33] Look, we did it during COVID, everything fell apart. [1:23:35] Yeah, absolutely. [1:23:36] But I think people know how to work from home now as well, hey? [1:23:39] So then we've got all of those infrastructures in place. [1:23:41] We've got all the tech that we need, all of the protocols, etc. [1:23:44] If this virus jumps off the ship and comes over to New Zealand, this new one, I mean, [1:23:49] we can probably all do it. [1:23:50] But in terms of saving money, how much logistically are you saving versus... [1:23:56] Because you've still got to put fuel in the car to go to the shops. [1:23:59] You've still got to put fuel in the car to get the kids to school, right? [1:24:02] How much would you save realistically, on a weekly average, do you think, from working [1:24:07] from home? [1:24:08] Five bucks? [1:24:09] Well, it depends where you're commuting from, yeah. [1:24:12] If you've selfishly decided to live out on a lifestyle block in Kaukaka Muku, right, [1:24:17] and you're rangy, well, you've probably saved quite a lot, right? [1:24:21] But talk about cheeky old envy. [1:24:23] Those chaps, they'd take any excuse to put themselves back at home, wouldn't they? [1:24:27] It's good on the public sector, whatever it was, what's PSC, Stanford Public Services [1:24:31] Commission for Pushing Back, I think. [1:24:33] Yeah, I agree. [1:24:34] Now, the UK, Australia, we've had some election results. [1:24:37] Simon, I mean, I'm loathe to read too much into it in terms of what it can teach us, [1:24:43] because they've got migration, they've got other issues over there that we just don't [1:24:47] have in the same way. [1:24:48] On the way, no, I agree. [1:24:49] And we have MMP. [1:24:50] Your thoughts? [1:24:51] I think it is remarkable, and I'll have, again, older colleagues sending me messages [1:24:58] saying, shut up, Simon, you're an idiot. [1:25:00] But I do think, you know, Western democracy, and you look at all governments, I mean, none [1:25:05] are really popular at the moment, are they? [1:25:08] I mean, I just think that's sort of a thing. [1:25:10] And it is true all around the world, Aussie, Hanson, actually Germany, France, they're sort [1:25:17] of, whatever you want to call them, right, nationalist parties going really well, the [1:25:21] UK, so something's going on. [1:25:23] I, for myself, am not judgmental about it. [1:25:25] I think what it says is those parties are talking about the issues that a chunk of voters [1:25:30] want to hear about and are interested in. [1:25:32] And we do see it a little bit in that poll of polls. [1:25:35] I mean, the New Zealand first factor, right? [1:25:37] I mean, I happen to think they do it in a kind of a safe, cuddly way, if you like, as [1:25:42] opposed to, say, AFD in Germany or something. [1:25:44] But we do see a bit of that phenomena here. [1:25:47] I'm with you. [1:25:47] I would be a bit careful about that. [1:25:49] And is it the immigration that's driving that support here, or is it the more nationalist [1:25:54] policies around no asset sales, around reforming, nationalising the energy companies? [1:25:59] All of that, I suppose, ultimately, a crappy economy, where people are like fed up, right? [1:26:03] They're sitting there saying cost of living, all that stuff. [1:26:06] Let's take ownership of it ourselves, which is what New Zealand First is all about, right? [1:26:09] Yeah. [1:26:10] Yeah. [1:26:11] Interesting. [1:26:11] Chelsea, what do you reckon? [1:26:12] Well, it's interesting, actually, the far right wave across Europe kind of happened in [1:26:18] the wake of Donald Trump getting his second election term in the US. [1:26:22] And we kind of missed out on that, just how our election cycle is placed. [1:26:26] And Australia just slithered in as well. [1:26:29] So it's interesting to know, right, so the far right sweep of Europe, so to speak, was [1:26:35] because of Donald Trump. [1:26:36] What is it now? [1:26:37] Well, what's the reasoning now? [1:26:39] And I think you're quite right, that nationalist approach is becoming real. [1:26:42] I mean, I saw at home the South Australian general election, the state election, Pauline [1:26:49] Hanson's One Nation was the second highest rated party in South Australia, which comes [1:26:55] as a shock. [1:26:56] But then last time I was home, I saw a bumper sticker on a ute I was driving behind saying, [1:27:02] don't welcome me to my own country. [1:27:04] And that's a reference to First Nations people, welcome to ceremony, welcome to country at [1:27:09] Anzac Day and things like that. [1:27:11] So you do see it, it's visible there. [1:27:13] But it's not visible here yet. [1:27:15] Good point around Trump, though. [1:27:17] I mean, I think he probably let off a pressure valve or something, right? [1:27:21] He made respectable, I don't know about respectable, maybe that's the wrong word, but he allowed [1:27:25] a lot of things to be said, and I think, yeah, maybe it would have happened without him, but [1:27:32] he's definitely a factor in this. [1:27:33] It was a catalyst, right? [1:27:35] And it was like, oh, we can say those things out loud now, you know, you've got the, yeah, [1:27:39] Germany, like you said, Italy, Georgia Maloney's party came into power. [1:27:43] Which is just democracy, it's a competition of ideas, and if you're thinking what most, [1:27:49] or what a lot of other people are thinking, you will win. [1:27:51] You know, that's how it works. [1:27:52] Well, like I say, some people get very squiffy and judgmental about it, I don't think we [1:27:56] do. [1:27:56] No, neither do I. [1:27:58] Hey, colleges, did you guys go to private school, Simon? [1:28:00] What do you reckon? [1:28:01] Yes. [1:28:02] Oh, bollocks. [1:28:03] Come on. [1:28:04] Let's put this accent in the kind of, the journalists who mock me about how I talk from West Auckland [1:28:11] and so on. [1:28:11] No way. [1:28:13] No way. [1:28:13] Where did you go to? [1:28:14] I've read your book, I should remember. [1:28:16] These days, Rutherford College in Teatatou Peninsula. [1:28:22] Or Teat North, as we used to call it. [1:28:24] And the reason we're talking about this, the cost of going to a private school is now charging, [1:28:30] well, more colleges than ever, charging 30,000 plus in tuition fees annually. [1:28:36] Is it worth it? [1:28:37] Chelsea, did you go, is it the opposite in Australia, or is it like the UK, or what, in terms of the [1:28:44] public? [1:28:44] It's kind of like, kind of like here. [1:28:46] I went to a private school, but it was a Catholic or girls' school, and it was, I would say, [1:28:51] on the borderline of, like, it wasn't like a fancy private school. [1:28:56] It was like, just because it's Catholic, they would just give it money. [1:28:58] Integrated. [1:28:59] Integrated. [1:29:00] I think that's what we say here. [1:29:01] Right, right. [1:29:02] So it was borderline. [1:29:03] But I mean, I don't see, you know, the difference between, I knew a whole bunch of kids that [1:29:09] I went to uni with went to the fancy schmancy ones, and we were basically ended up at the [1:29:13] same place, didn't we? [1:29:14] So, and some of them don't have jobs in media now. [1:29:17] Exactly. [1:29:18] Well, I'm going to level with you. [1:29:20] A couple of my kids go to private schools. [1:29:22] I never thought this would happen. [1:29:23] I resisted it. [1:29:25] But in the end, I think what happens is we have anxieties. [1:29:30] We want quality for our children. [1:29:33] And there was a sense that I think is maybe changing with Erica Stanford and her reforms, [1:29:36] but there was a sense back when we started this game that's, you know, is expensive and [1:29:41] you sacrificed to do it, that the public sector was going down, had problems, and they weren't [1:29:48] learning the basics, and we needed to do something. [1:29:50] Yeah. [1:29:51] Fair enough. [1:29:51] So it was a quality motivation for Natalie and I. [1:29:55] Yeah, I think that's fair enough. [1:29:57] Actually, I don't have kids, but I was saying exactly the same thing. [1:30:00] I've always liked the idea of them also going to a public school like I did, but if they're [1:30:06] not going to do the basic stuff, then you kind of got to give them the best shot, don't [1:30:10] you? [1:30:10] Yeah. [1:30:10] Hopefully, as you say, that's all turned around and changing now. [1:30:13] Good to see you both this morning. [1:30:14] Thanks for coming on as always. [1:30:16] That is Simon Bridges, Auckland Business Chamber CEO and Chelsea Daniels, host of the Front [1:30:20] Page podcast. [1:30:21] It is 25 minutes after eight. [1:30:24] We have completed four builds with GJ. [1:30:26] Every time we want to think of building, we always go back to GJ. [1:30:28] It's a really good experience throughout the whole process. [1:30:32] They deliver what they promise on. [1:30:33] And it feels like working with a family member. [1:30:36] It's very easy and trustworthy to work with GJ. [1:30:40] Do you want a warm, healthy home? [1:30:41] Insulate your walls with Insulmax. [1:30:44] The easy, cost-effective way to insulate your walls, usually in just one day. [1:30:49] Wall insulation without renovation for older Kiwi homes. [1:30:53] Fully certified for New Zealand conditions. [1:30:56] Join the thousands of Kiwis enjoying a warm, dry, energy-efficient home with Insulmax retrofit [1:31:02] wall insulation. [1:31:04] Visit insulmax.co.nz to book your free home assessment. [1:31:40] There's a grain. [1:31:41] Mullenberg. [1:31:42] Keep me going. [1:31:50] Mullenberg. [1:31:51] Mullenberg. [1:31:52] Oh, here she is. [1:31:54] How's the business going? [1:31:56] Good, actually. [1:31:57] We just switched to Two Degrees. [1:31:58] Well, we tested the networks and couldn't see any difference. [1:32:02] But Two Degrees has free Aussie business roaming. [1:32:05] With Flex, we get instant control of phone plans, data usage and cost-centre reporting. [1:32:11] And they're the fastest-growing business network. [1:32:18] Can I have what she's having? [1:32:19] Some are asking if the Middle East conflict is finally coming to an end. [1:32:25] Iran says it's replied to a U.S. peace proposal, with reports it could lead to negotiations [1:32:31] on the country's nuclear program. [1:32:33] Meanwhile, the month-old ceasefire is cracking under pressure with drone strikes reported [1:32:38] across the region. [1:32:39] And Iran is threatening British warships in the Strait of Hormuz, saying they will be met [1:32:44] with immediate, decisive response if they are perceived to be acting alongside the United [1:32:49] States. [1:32:49] The threat followed news that Britain would send one of its destroyers, the HMS Dragon, [1:32:56] to the region. [1:32:57] Natasha Turak is Middle East correspondent, joins us live from Dubai. [1:33:01] Natasha, nice to have you on the program. [1:33:03] What chance is there that this particular peace proposal has any greater confidence or chance [1:33:10] that it will actually get somewhere as opposed to previous versions? [1:33:15] Well, Ryan, it's still very difficult to know. [1:33:17] We don't know yet what the Iranian response to that U.S. proposal has been. [1:33:21] But based on the last several weeks and just based on the sheer scope of space between the [1:33:28] demands that each country has, it's hard to see this being really significantly different [1:33:34] from the outcomes of attempted peace talks that we've seen before, which have been a failure. [1:33:40] Now, this is just a 14-point memorandum, one page long. [1:33:43] And the idea is to formally end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz before talks on more contentious [1:33:50] issues such as Iran's nuclear program begin. [1:33:53] But as I said, the two countries have quite a lot of space between them in terms of what [1:33:58] each one wants, even in the immediate term. [1:34:01] So Iran wants a full and permanent end to the war before it makes any further concessions. [1:34:06] So that also includes an end to the war in Lebanon. [1:34:09] The U.S. wants a potential extension of the ceasefire by a month or two. [1:34:14] And in that time, they want the Strait of Hormuz opened. [1:34:17] So they say they will unblockade Iran once Iran opens the Strait. [1:34:22] Iran so far has said, well, we're not doing anything until you unblockade us first. [1:34:27] So we've had this gridlock for quite some time. [1:34:30] And President Trump also wants to address that thorny nuclear issue. [1:34:34] But Iran would prefer to kick that down the road a little bit and leave it till later. [1:34:38] Because at this point, it's abundantly clear to those of us watching and to the officials [1:34:44] in Tehran that President Trump doesn't really have the stomach for this war anymore. [1:34:49] He's kind of trying to extricate himself from the conflict. [1:34:52] Of course, he's making threats about renewed bombings and he's, you know, continuing to [1:34:57] say, oh, we can do what we want if you don't, you know, give us what we're asking for. [1:35:01] But it seems pretty clear that he doesn't actually want to do this. [1:35:04] And so if Tehran, if Iran knows it is in that position, it is not very likely that it will [1:35:11] give Washington the concessions that it wants. [1:35:14] It feels right now like it has quite a bit of leverage. [1:35:17] Natasha, what about the strikes from Iran into the UAE over the last 24 hours? [1:35:22] This is the drone strikes. [1:35:24] Apparently, there was no warning for them this time. [1:35:27] Yes. [1:35:28] So UAE's Ministry of Defense said that it intercepted two drones over UAE airspace that it says [1:35:35] came from Iran. [1:35:36] Kuwait also reported drone strikes. [1:35:39] And there was a fire on a cargo ship going from the UAE to Qatar that authorities say came [1:35:45] from an Iranian strike as well. [1:35:46] Now, here in Dubai, we didn't hear the missile alert go off suggesting that it the threat [1:35:52] wasn't directly over Dubai itself as an emirate. [1:35:56] We don't know if, you know, where where over the Emirate where where over the UAE that intercepts [1:36:04] those interceptions took place. [1:36:05] But the UAE has once again condemned what it calls Iran's aggression. [1:36:10] Iran has not commented on the strikes, but this follows a few days of strikes from Iran [1:36:17] into the UAE that read that started on Monday of last week for the first time in almost a [1:36:24] month since that shaky ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was agreed on April 8th. [1:36:29] So while the rest of the region may have benefited, you know, continuously from the ceasefire, [1:36:35] the UAE remains the sort of first line of where the blowback happens when Iran decides to take [1:36:42] revenge on something that the U.S. has done. [1:36:45] So so here things certainly remain on edge, but the government remains vigilant to, you know, [1:36:52] keep those skies protected from further strikes. [1:36:56] Natasha Turak, Middle East correspondent in Dubai. [1:36:59] Here's neither. [1:37:00] Herald Now News, powered by Newstalk ZB. [1:37:09] A new poll predicts the government will return to office at the election and its margin of [1:37:15] victory is growing. [1:37:16] According to the NZ Herald Motu Research Poll of Polls, the probability of the coalition [1:37:22] winning a second term is 88.3%. [1:37:25] The model shows it's extended its lead over the opposition by two points in the last 12 months. [1:37:31] Despite Nationals' vote declining, New Zealand First's rise is partly made up for it. [1:37:38] It's the opposite for the left bloc, with the Green Party and Te Parti Māori shedding votes, [1:37:43] meaning Labour's steady rise hasn't translated into a polling lead. [1:37:47] Deputy Prime Minister David Seymour says he assumes New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters sought [1:37:53] permission before he released budget-sensitive information. [1:37:57] The New Zealand First Leader told Newstalk ZB on Friday the government's scrapping the free [1:38:02] final year of tertiary study in this year's budget. [1:38:06] Finance Minister Nicola Willis confirmed the move and says she'll have more to say in due course. [1:38:10] There's no clear picture of how many students without visas are being allowed into New Zealand [1:38:17] schools. [1:38:18] Ministry of Education data show there were at least 520 applications over the past two years. [1:38:25] The true national total is unclear due to suppressed data. [1:38:29] The system applies to school-aged children without a legal right to be in the country, but who can [1:38:34] still be enrolled under a government policy. [1:38:37] Mega Ministry MB sought advice on working-from-home requirements for public servants facing steep [1:38:45] petrol prices. [1:38:47] MB says it asked for advice, given working-from-home was mentioned in the 2024 National Fuel Plan [1:38:53] as a voluntary way of reducing demand. [1:38:56] The Public Service Commission advised MB the move would be unlikely to ease fuel supply or prices. [1:39:03] The government's cybersecurity spending increases have shrunk in the past three years. [1:39:08] Internal affairs data released to Newstalk ZB shows 47 agencies spent more than $169 million [1:39:15] on cybersecurity last year, just over 2% up on 2024. [1:39:21] In the years before, spending rose about 22% and 82%. [1:39:26] GCSB and NZSIS Minister Chris Pink says each agency prioritises its needs and submits budget bids. [1:39:35] He says government agencies are working to broaden engagement with the private sector to increase [1:39:40] cyber resilience with a range of initiatives underway. [1:39:45] Repatriation flights have begun for some of the passengers evacuated from a Hantavirus-stricken [1:39:49] cruise ship. [1:39:51] The boat docked in Spain's Canary Islands yesterday. [1:39:54] The one New Zealander on board is among the last to be evacuated and will board a flight to Australia. [1:39:59] The Wellington Phoenix will face Melbourne City for the A-League women's football title on Saturday. [1:40:13] Arsenal remain top of the Premier League after a 1-0 win over West Ham. [1:40:18] Tim Price has produced his best finish at the badminton horse trials. [1:40:22] He's come second on 17-year-old Bay Gaulding Falco. [1:40:26] Leaders Penrith have beaten Canberra 30-18 to close out Round 10 of league's NRL. [1:40:32] And All Blacks coach Dave Rennie has guided Kobe to the top of the regular season in Japan's Rugby League One. [1:40:43] Herald now weather. [1:40:46] Morena, good morning. [1:40:47] A bit of a chilly start first thing. [1:40:49] But for most of us, Monday is looking like a dry day. [1:40:52] Southwesterly winds will be keeping it on the cool side this week. [1:40:55] But I think we are going to find many spots stay dry. [1:40:57] In the north though, that lingering feature is something to come back to this evening. [1:41:01] Down here in the south, we'll have an odd shower that runs in towards the southern coast. [1:41:04] But very isolated, I think most of the time it's a dry story. [1:41:07] Very cold and frosty first thing through central Otago. [1:41:10] But dry and sunny. [1:41:12] As we head up the coast, we might find an odd shower skirting the likes of Banks Ventura. [1:41:16] But for most of us, it's fine, dry and sunny. [1:41:18] After a rather chilly start. [1:41:21] Again, an odd shower perhaps around that Wairapa coast. [1:41:23] But for most of us, it's a dry looking day. [1:41:25] Taranaki doing very nicely. [1:41:27] And across towards Whanganui as well. [1:41:28] Plenty of clear sky and sunshine. [1:41:30] An odd shower still with us this morning through the Waira district up in towards the hills of Tairafti. [1:41:36] But that clears away just a little bit of cloud this afternoon. [1:41:39] And then a fine looking story on the other side of the hills to the Bay of Plenty across towards Waikato. [1:41:44] Now there is that band of wetter weather lingering up towards the north of the Auckland and northern coast. [1:41:49] That arrives back with us as we head through the night time. [1:41:52] You can see a longer spell of rain just across those far northern parts. [1:41:56] A few showers in the far south. [1:41:58] But for many of us, it's a dry looking day. [1:42:01] And Tuesday is looking pretty decent as well. [1:42:04] It's time for motoring. [1:42:05] Brought to you by Nord-East. [1:42:06] Leaders in vehicle electrification. [1:42:08] Audi's historic division, Audi Tradition, has painstakingly rebuilt a legendary 1930s race car. [1:42:15] Took them three years. [1:42:16] David Linklade is the Driven Car Guide editor with us this morning. [1:42:19] David, good morning. [1:42:20] Good morning. [1:42:20] Why have they gone and done this? [1:42:22] To show off, basically. [1:42:24] I mean, look at it. [1:42:25] Have you ever seen anything as cool? [1:42:28] I haven't seen it yet. [1:42:29] Oh, there it is. [1:42:30] Yeah. [1:42:31] So it's probably one of the brand's most famous kind of competition cars. [1:42:36] It's really famous. [1:42:37] There's die-cast models of it and all sorts. [1:42:39] The thing doesn't actually exist anymore because it came from the 1930s. [1:42:43] So obviously it was lost to time and the war, I suspect. [1:42:46] So the company says it doesn't really have anything from that period in its collection because most big established car makers sort of have a heritage collection. [1:42:54] So they just thought it was really important to have something significant and historic from that period. [1:42:59] So they rebuilt this thing from the ground up. [1:43:02] And as you said, it took them three years. [1:43:04] It's an incredible job. [1:43:06] And it's a demonstration car. [1:43:07] So it's a fully working thing. [1:43:09] So it's actually going to be demonstrated at the Goodwood Festival of Speed in the UK in July. [1:43:14] And if people know the festival, it's a really famous kind of showcase for exotic and new cars. [1:43:20] There's a hill climb there. [1:43:21] So car makers do demonstration runs up this big hill climb. [1:43:24] So that would be quite a thing to see roaring up the hill climb at Goodwood. [1:43:27] How quick would it go? [1:43:29] Well, it's a top speed car. [1:43:31] So it was based on a race car from the 30s. [1:43:33] But obviously you can see it's got all the aero and what have you. [1:43:35] So up the hill climb, who knows? [1:43:37] But over the flying kilometer in 1935, which is when the record was set, it was 300, just over, not just over, nearly 327 kilometers an hour. [1:43:46] Wow. [1:43:47] That's 90 years ago. [1:43:49] That's incredible, really, isn't it? [1:43:50] To think about how quick they could go. [1:43:52] It would be terrifying. [1:43:53] So race drivers of that period were very brave, I think. [1:43:57] And the aerodynamics on this thing were actually quite ahead of their time, I understand. [1:44:01] Yeah, so we hear so much with modern EVs about clever aerodynamic touches like closed fronts and flush wheel covers and things. [1:44:07] This car had all of that back in 1934. [1:44:10] It dates back to a period when the car industry was kind of fascinated with aviation. [1:44:15] You know, it was starting to understand aerodynamics and what have you. [1:44:17] So this car was actually developed in a wind tunnel back in the 30s. [1:44:21] So it's quite, you know, by modern standards, it's still quite impressive. [1:44:25] And a lot of the aero works really well. [1:44:29] You can see the car has got a closed front on it, which is just literally a cover over the grill. [1:44:35] I think for the demonstration car, they've actually modified it a little bit so it's got a bit more cooling, because obviously it was designed to just go really fast for a very short period of time. [1:44:46] If you're going to do demonstration runs with a car like this, you need it to actually cool and not break down. [1:44:51] And so they've modified it a little bit to give it a bit more cooling. [1:44:53] But essentially, that's the car you're seeing. [1:44:55] The car you'll see is that, you know, a pretty, pretty close replica of that 1935 car. [1:45:00] It almost looks like, at the front of it at least, looks like a plane, doesn't it? [1:45:03] It does. [1:45:04] That was the idea. [1:45:05] The term didn't exist in the 30s, but we now call them streamliner cars, because there was a whole sort of trend of cars that looked. [1:45:12] Not road cars didn't look like that, but they had that streamliner look, and it was very much inspired by aviation. [1:45:18] Very cool. [1:45:19] David, thanks for sharing. [1:45:20] David Linklater, Driven Car Guide Editor. [1:45:22] And that is thanks to our partners, Nord-East, leaders in vehicle electrification. [1:45:27] It is 18 minutes away from nine. [1:45:29] Time for a quick break. [1:45:30] Stop paying the waiting tax. [1:45:32] The money you could miss out on by delaying the start of your investment journey. [1:45:37] Up your tempo with Tempo, the guided investment app that helps you get started. [1:45:41] Don't delay because you don't think you have enough time, money, or know-how. [1:45:46] All you need is a goal, and our guidance will help with the rest. [1:45:50] You can do it. [1:45:51] We can help. [1:45:52] Here's how. [1:45:53] Download Tempo now. [1:45:54] I'm Suzanne Paul, and now I'm going to help you solve your problems with Chelsea. [1:46:02] Just DM us your problems, and together, let's fix them. [1:46:06] Baking solves everything. [1:46:08] DM us now, now. [1:46:10] It was picked black in the middle of the night. [1:46:16] What are we doing? [1:46:17] We saw this tree. [1:46:20] It was the tallest tree ever. [1:46:24] And then we walked. [1:46:25] And walked. [1:46:29] Then we started camp. [1:46:30] Well, Mom did. [1:46:31] That's quite an adventure, buddy. [1:46:34] Yeah, it kind of was. [1:46:36] What do you want to do now? [1:46:42] In 1985, my grandfather set out to make the world a better tea. [1:46:47] That's why we grew our own, unlike other tea companies. [1:46:51] Then pick the best leaves by hand, not machine, and pack it right here in Sri Lanka. [1:46:56] But it's not just the taste that makes our tea better. [1:47:01] 15% of our profit goes to humanity. [1:47:04] And to the elephants. [1:47:06] As my grandfather said, do try it. [1:47:12] When building for investment, it's important to find a team that you can trust. [1:47:15] We decided to build the GJs because they're good quality that they always provide us. [1:47:21] They help us throughout the whole process of getting the resource consent to the building [1:47:25] consent, and their contracts are very easy to understand. [1:47:28] We have built four houses with GJ Gardeners, and it's just easier every time we work with [1:47:32] them. [1:47:33] I'll definitely recommend GJs to all of my friends and family. [1:47:37] If you're thinking of building, choose the builder you'll want to build with time and [1:47:41] time again. [1:47:43] Time now to talk business. [1:47:44] Thanks to our partners, Forsyth Bar, Garthson Studio. [1:47:46] Garth, good morning. [1:47:47] Brian. [1:47:47] So, oil price, what's happening there? [1:47:49] Look, forward price back down under $90 a barrel in quarter four, if we're looking right [1:47:55] ahead, heading that way in quarter three. [1:47:57] So the long-term trend heading in the right direction, and pretty steady at the moment. [1:48:01] I think last time I looked was just up about 1% on Friday's close, and down about 6% for [1:48:07] the week. [1:48:07] So just generally with the lack of any kind of hardcore shooting war going on, there was [1:48:13] a bit of that tit for tat on Friday, and you've reported some sort of skirmish type [1:48:17] activity this morning. [1:48:18] So we'll just sort of see how that does. [1:48:21] It's shaded markets, I think, a little bit on Friday outside the US, but in America, [1:48:25] it's still just a story about those semiconductors going absolutely nuts and blowing everything [1:48:29] else out of the water. [1:48:30] Now, what about the quarter one revenue for Rocket Lab, seeing it do pretty well on the [1:48:34] stock market Friday? [1:48:36] Rocketed up, you know, nice to have all those puns handy. [1:48:38] When you've got $105 a share now, which is, I mean, that's something that IPO'd at about [1:48:43] 10, so some people have made a lot of money, a lot of them are Kiwis. [1:48:45] And that was really just, I think, about $200 million revenue. [1:48:50] So that's $800 million a year if that holds for the whole year. [1:48:54] They are talking about huge contracts that they've done with the Defence Department for [1:48:59] a range of different sort of space warfare programmes. [1:49:01] They've also got a confidential contract for the neutron and electron rockets. [1:49:05] The neutron's the one, big one, that they haven't managed to launch yet. [1:49:08] So that's probably the question that's been hanging over their result for a while. [1:49:11] But these numbers suggest that, you know, it's doing pretty well. [1:49:14] So Peter Beck, he also dialled his salary down to one US dollar a year. [1:49:18] He was being paid $800 grand and, you know, 20-odd something million dollars worth of stock [1:49:23] options. [1:49:23] He passed on those and says, well, put that money into hiring engineers, which is just [1:49:27] a huge bet. [1:49:28] I mean, he's probably already worth $5 or $6 billion out of his value in the company. [1:49:32] But if you think Donald Trump has been talking about how, hey, we need to see Defence executives [1:49:39] actually putting some money on the table and not pumping up their own stock options, that's [1:49:43] a pretty good bet. [1:49:44] Yeah, totally. [1:49:45] Garth, just finally this morning, I see Riley Kennedy has been speaking to the new Fonterra [1:49:50] boss. [1:49:51] Which is interesting because he's only been in the job for about 10 or 11 days. [1:49:54] But really interesting in there, he's sort of talking about wanting to fight for New Zealand [1:49:57] milk supply probably harder than the cooperative has before. [1:50:00] They've tended to be a bit like reluctant to sort of pitch in and say they're aggressively [1:50:04] going after farmers. [1:50:06] But he's saying he does want more farmers to join the cooperative. [1:50:08] He thinks overall that the industry's stronger, if it's stronger, that, you know, their focus [1:50:13] that basically they feed the returns back to farmers, shareholders, rather than seeing [1:50:18] that milk as a cost on their operation. [1:50:20] And so he's going to be going quite aggressively after them, going pretty aggressively after growth [1:50:24] in Southeast Asia and looking at just lining up some pretty smart bets on new product [1:50:29] with investments here. [1:50:30] But basically saying, look, the world's moving really fast. [1:50:33] So even if they're in a good place, you can't stay in a good place for long unless you're [1:50:36] delivering to your customers. [1:50:39] We talk business every day, thanks to our partners. [1:50:42] Forsyth Bar time is 13 minutes away from nine o'clock. [1:50:45] Australia is poaching our cops. [1:50:47] One News reports 144 New Zealand police officers left for Australia in the past year. [1:50:53] The Commissioner, Richard Chambers, says we can't realistically keep up with the pay [1:50:57] and incentives being offered on ZB. [1:50:59] Ginny Anderson, Labour's police spokesperson, was on my show this morning and I began by [1:51:04] asking what do we need to do to keep them here? [1:51:07] Well, it looks like cost of living is really pushing not just Kiwis, but police away. [1:51:13] And it's sad for us who want to have people staying here because they're a family and [1:51:18] we love them. [1:51:18] So it's a real loss in New Zealand to have so many. [1:51:21] 144, I think you said, wasn't it, in the past year is a lot. [1:51:25] Totally. [1:51:25] And how do you get them back? [1:51:27] Well, I think there's push and pull factors. [1:51:30] There's several push factors. [1:51:31] I mean, one of the factors is the fact that the government has failed to deliver on the [1:51:35] 500 that they promised and it just puts more pressure on the front line. [1:51:39] So I think we've seen more pressure on police on the front line, less support, whether it's [1:51:44] support staff or IT support, and pull factors, which is a greater pay. [1:51:49] So pay is definitely, you're right, part of the factor. [1:51:52] Is Labour promising to pay them more? [1:51:54] Well, one thing that I think needs looking at, and I'm prepared to take a look at that [1:51:59] if we deform the government, is that police currently have 21 steps in their pay. [1:52:05] So wages are not only not keeping up with inflation, but it means it takes police much [1:52:11] longer than any other profession to reach the top of their pay scale. [1:52:14] And so while police might start earning more, a bit more than, say, nurses or teachers, it [1:52:19] doesn't take very long, three or four years, and then those professions are earning more [1:52:23] than police. [1:52:25] So I think the fact that there are 21 steps in that pay scale, that's a factor that needs [1:52:27] to be looked at. [1:52:28] Okay. [1:52:29] And so you'll look at that, but it doesn't necessarily mean you're going to pay them more, [1:52:33] just maybe more sooner. [1:52:34] Well, it sounds like the Commission has sort of given up on that sense. [1:52:40] They've paid, what, $35,000 and got an advertising campaign and got two people back. [1:52:47] We think that it's the campaign that the Police Association currently have in place, which [1:52:52] is repay the risk and acknowledging the risk that police take every day needs to be remunerated. [1:52:58] The part of that is that there's too many steps in their pay scale. [1:53:02] The police take too long to earn as much as similar professions in New Zealand. [1:53:07] And so we think that that's a good thing that we need to take a look at to say that you should [1:53:11] be earning more earlier on in your career. [1:53:13] Hey, interesting what's happening overseas, isn't it, over in the UK with reform and over [1:53:17] in Australia with One Nation? [1:53:19] Yes, very interesting times. [1:53:20] And again, that just puts more pressure on frontline police if situations are becoming [1:53:25] difficult in public. [1:53:27] So that's another factor as well that you need to be considering if you're going over there. [1:53:32] That was Ginny Anderson, Labor's police spokesperson on Newstalk ZB with me earlier this morning. [1:53:38] Time for a quick break. [1:53:39] We've done a few subdivisions with DJ Gardner and from the resource concern to the building [1:53:44] concern, getting the council permits and stuff. [1:53:46] Always, DJ Gardner's are ahead and helping us out through the whole process and it was [1:53:50] so easy working with DJ. [1:53:55] We all have a routine to help us get through the week. [1:53:58] But that doesn't mean it has to feel so routine. [1:54:06] Because with my food bag, you can come home knowing you've always got a yum meal to dish [1:54:11] up. [1:54:11] With new recipes to try and plenty of favourites that are simple, healthy and always delicious. [1:54:19] It's a dinner routine that isn't stuck on repeat. [1:54:22] My food bag. [1:54:23] Dinner done better. [1:54:24] Morgan Wallen, Kaylie Bell, Jelly Roll, Megan Maroney, Chris Stapleton. [1:54:58] All the country stars have come to play on the all new iHeartCountry NZ. [1:55:02] Your new home for country is iHeartCountry NZ. [1:55:07] We just switched to Two Degrees. [1:55:09] Well, we tested the networks and couldn't see any difference. [1:55:12] But Two Degrees has free Aussie business roaming. [1:55:15] And they're the fastest growing business network. [1:55:21] Can have what she's having. [1:55:22] For 150 years, Public Trust has helped generations of New Zealanders with their wills. [1:55:29] Make yours today. [1:55:31] And ensure that things that matter go to the people that matter. [1:55:38] Starmer could lose his job as Prime Minister in the UK in the next 24 hours. [1:55:42] Labour lost 1,500 seats at local elections over the weekend. [1:55:46] Reform, that's for Raj, and the Greens did very well. [1:55:48] It's very important that we do reflect on what was a tough set of results. [1:55:54] But I'm not going to walk away and plunge the country into chaos. [1:55:57] I think the right thing to do is to rebuild and show the path forward. [1:56:04] We did make a number of really important calls in the last couple of years about stabilising the economy, [1:56:10] investing in our public services, not getting drawn into the war in Iran. [1:56:16] Catherine West, a backbencher you've never heard of. [1:56:18] We call her a nobody in politics. [1:56:20] She's come out and said she wants a vote. [1:56:22] 80 MPs needed to force one. [1:56:24] Wes Streeting, he's the health secretary. [1:56:26] He is apparently warming his engines. [1:56:28] And Andy Burnham in the north, king of the north they call him, doesn't have a seat. [1:56:32] But could be a contender should somebody slip him a seat through a by-election. [1:56:37] As for reform, this is for Raj. [1:56:39] Well, they're doing well. [1:56:41] And if these results could be replicated in a general election in a couple of years, [1:56:45] he's got a serious shot at becoming the next Prime Minister of Britain. [1:56:48] What is most interesting about it, if you look at the numbers, [1:56:51] and we saw it beginning last night, you see Labour down 35%, reform up 39%. [1:56:58] There is a massive direct switch in this part of the country. [1:57:03] My firm belief is that those voters who have come to us [1:57:07] are not doing it as a short-term protest. [1:57:09] They're doing it because they actually believe in us [1:57:11] and they will stick with us between now and the next general election. [1:57:17] Philip Cowley, Queen Mary University of London, [1:57:23] British School of Politics and International Relations professor, [1:57:26] joins us live this morning. [1:57:27] Good morning. [1:57:28] Good morning. [1:57:29] Nice to have you on the show. [1:57:30] So, what's your prediction for the Prime Minister in the next few days? [1:57:36] Well, I think probably in the next few days he'll be okay. [1:57:40] But I don't think many people think he's going to be leading the Labour Party [1:57:43] into the next general election. [1:57:46] The problem, and you sort of hinted at it in your introduction there, [1:57:50] is just how you get him out in the next few days. [1:57:54] I mean, Catherine West is not going to become the next Prime Minister. [1:57:58] She's running purely to see if she can attract nominations from people, [1:58:02] to force them, you know, come on, you've got a chance here, [1:58:05] if you back me, we might be, you know, not to actually get her in, [1:58:08] but to say, look, let's build up a head of steam [1:58:10] and then someone more senior can come in behind me [1:58:14] if we can show that there's real dissatisfaction. [1:58:16] But I'm not sure that's going to work. [1:58:17] And I think in the very short term, he's fine. [1:58:21] But these were pretty catastrophic results for the Labour Party. [1:58:25] They're the sort of results that make a lot of Labour MPs, [1:58:27] probably the majority, look at their own seats [1:58:29] and think if we carry on like this, we are toast. [1:58:32] Yeah, absolutely. [1:58:34] And what about the getting Burnham, the King of the North, [1:58:38] and that's going to require a by... [1:58:39] I mean, all of that stuff takes time, right? [1:58:42] Well, it's not just that it takes time. [1:58:43] There's no guarantee he wins a by-election at the moment. [1:58:46] I mean, this is all based on the assumption [1:58:49] that a Labour MP will stand aside, [1:58:51] Andy Burnham will run in the seat, [1:58:53] the cheering masses will sort of bring him in to Westminster [1:58:56] and then he leaves Labour triumphantly. [1:58:59] Even that very first bit could easily go wrong. [1:59:02] There is absolutely no guarantee, [1:59:04] even if he found a seat, [1:59:05] that he'd win it in a by-election in the current climate. [1:59:09] And I think the problem for Andy Burnham [1:59:12] is that he's very popular at the moment as Mayor of Manchester. [1:59:15] I'm not entirely convinced, [1:59:17] and I'm not sure that there's quite a few Labour MPs [1:59:19] I think share this scepticism, [1:59:21] that he'd be as popular as Prime Minister. [1:59:25] This is the problem, isn't it, for Labour, [1:59:27] that they're talking about other leaders. [1:59:29] But, you know, if Angela Rayner was in charge right now, [1:59:33] would Labour be performing any better in these elections? [1:59:36] If West Streeting was in charge right now, [1:59:38] would they be performing, [1:59:39] who, from what I can see as a career politician through and through, [1:59:42] any better than Starmer would? [1:59:44] So I think there's two issues here, [1:59:46] and they get mixed up. [1:59:48] I mean, one is the policy direction of the government [1:59:50] and the extent, you know, [1:59:53] do they shift a little bit to the left or not? [1:59:58] How do they fight off [1:59:59] this very difficult twin pressure from reform, [2:00:03] which is taking some votes off Labour, [2:00:06] and the Greens, who are taking more votes off Labour. [2:00:10] And, of course, those require you to go in different directions, [2:00:12] which is very difficult for any party at the best of times. [2:00:16] So there's a policy question, [2:00:18] and then there's the personality question. [2:00:19] I mean, part of Keir Starmer's problem, [2:00:23] if I can be polite, [2:00:25] is that he is not especially charismatic, [2:00:28] and he doesn't infuse the population at all. [2:00:33] In fact, it's become quite clear in the last year or so [2:00:36] that there's a real level of vehemence against Keir Starmer [2:00:39] as an individual, [2:00:41] maybe above and beyond what you would expect, [2:00:44] given the sort of decisions the government has taken. [2:00:46] So you get in some new people, [2:00:48] but it is not clear that either the person [2:00:51] or the policy direction will necessarily help Labour. [2:00:54] Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party scored its first ever federal seat in a by-election. [2:00:59] Charles Croucher, Nine News political editor, joins us this morning. [2:01:03] Good to have you on the program, Charles. [2:01:04] How significant is this for, I mean, we saw what happened with the local elections. [2:01:10] Now we're seeing a by-election at federal level. [2:01:12] What does this tell us about Pauline Hanson and One Nation going forward? [2:01:17] Well, the comparison to Nigel Farage is a good one, I think, Ryan, [2:01:20] because this was a big middle finger to the establishment, [2:01:22] not just the establishment, but the government and the status quo in Australia. [2:01:26] The fact that One Nation has now gone into what was traditionally conservative coalition heartland. [2:01:31] It's a seat that's been held by the conservative parties, [2:01:34] the coalition in Australia for 75 years, [2:01:36] and they've done it and done it easily. [2:01:38] It is a real warning to the rest of the country that One Nation is coming, [2:01:43] and Pauline Hanson and her deputy Barnaby Joyce said as much on Saturday night in that by-election. [2:01:50] You know, this is a regional seat. [2:01:51] It is traditionally conservative, lots of small towns, [2:01:53] and that will give some comfort to the ruling Labour Party. [2:01:58] But this is a shake-up. [2:02:00] It's an earthquake to the way that Australian politics has been assumed [2:02:04] for the last seven or eight decades. [2:02:07] This is what we're seeing in the US, in the UK, [2:02:11] and now it's proven that Australia is not immune. [2:02:14] And what does it mean for the Liberals? [2:02:17] I mean, they're the big loser here, aren't they? [2:02:19] They are. [2:02:19] This was former Liberal leader Susan Lee's old seat [2:02:22] when she got deposed as leader only a couple of months ago. [2:02:24] She resigned from Parliament altogether. [2:02:26] That's what forced this by-election. [2:02:29] She had won it comfortably at the last 25 years. [2:02:32] This is the warning called a Liberal Party. [2:02:34] They really now face being squeezed out of the cities by Labour [2:02:38] and by this teal independent movement that's become quite large here [2:02:41] in the last decade or so and now squeezed out of the regions by One Nation. [2:02:47] If you can't win in the cities and you can't win in the regions, [2:02:49] then you can't win at all. [2:02:51] And that is a real existential crisis that's facing the Liberal Party now. [2:02:55] For so long in our lifetimes, they have been the natural party [2:02:58] of government here in Australia. [2:02:59] That clearly isn't the case. [2:03:01] And there's lots of soul-searching before a state election in Victoria later this year [2:03:05] and then long-term before the next federal election. [2:03:09] What is it in your mind that the big parties, or the Liberals in particular, have ignored? [2:03:15] Is it immigration? [2:03:16] I mean, is that what One Nation is riding high off the back of? [2:03:19] That's the natural thing with One Nation. [2:03:21] But I don't think it's as easy as saying immigration. [2:03:23] This is, in many ways, a party of protest and a party of grievance. [2:03:27] It is the ejector seat election. [2:03:29] You just whack the button and get whoever is out in. [2:03:32] And that would link to what we've seen in the US with the rise of Donald Trump and the MAGA movement. [2:03:37] Also, you know, in Germany, across France with Marine Le Pen and then into Europe with what you saw in the UK, [2:03:43] what we saw with Nigel Farage and reform on the weekend. [2:03:46] This is people that are effectively sick of the way status quo politics has been working or not working for them. [2:03:53] They feel like they're being left behind. [2:03:56] And Pauline Hanson, who throughout this campaign was donated the plane by Australia's richest person, [2:04:00] you know, it doesn't always line up the way you think it would. [2:04:03] She has become this champion for battlers. [2:04:06] And they see in Pauline Hanson someone who has been around a long time. [2:04:10] She's almost part of the establishment. [2:04:11] She's been sort of part of the Australian political furniture now for the better part of 30 years. [2:04:17] But she's having this meteoric rise and by far more popular now than we've ever seen before. [2:04:22] The other thing that might be in play here is they've seen a permission structure [2:04:25] that other people think the way that they are thinking. [2:04:28] And all of a sudden they feel allowed to go out and vote for Pauline Hanson. [2:04:31] That's why they won seats in South Australia. [2:04:34] That's why the result last night was so emphatic. [2:04:37] And that's why the Liberal Party should be worried about what's coming down the pipeline. [2:04:40] That was Charles Crouch, a Nine News political editor on the show early this morning. [2:04:46] And that's it for us for today. [2:04:47] We'll be back tomorrow from 7 o'clock. [2:04:49] For more news in the meantime, head to our YouTube channel. [2:04:51] See you then.